Performance of HAS-BLED and DOAC scores to predict major bleeding events in atrial fibrillation patients treated with direct oral anticoagulants: A report from a prospective European observational registry.

BACKGROUND: The DOAC score has been recently proposed for bleeding risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation treated with direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC). OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of HAS-BLED and DOAC score in predicting major bleeding events in a contemporary cohort of European AF patients treated with DOAC. METHODS: We included patients derived from a prospective observational registry of European AF patients. HAS-BLED and DOAC scores were calculated as per the original schemes. Our primary endpoint was major bleeding events. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the predictive ability of the scores. RESULTS: A total of 2834 AF patients (median age [IQR] 69 [62-77] years; 39.6 % female) treated with DOAC were included in the analysis. According to the HAS-BLED score, 577 patients (20.4 %) were categorized as very low risk of bleeding, as compared to 1276 (45.0 %) according to DOAC score. A total of 55 major bleeding events occurred with an overall incidence of 1.04 per 100 patient-years. Both scores showed only a modest ability for the prediction of bleeding events (HAS-BLED area under the curve [AUC], 0.65, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.55-0.70; DOAC score AUC 0.62, 95 % CI 0.59-0.71, p for difference = 0.332]. At calibration analysis, the DOAC score showed modest calibration, especially for patients at high risk, when compared to HAS-BLED. CONCLUSION: In a contemporary cohort of DOAC-treated AF patients, both HAS-BLED and DOAC scores only modestly predicted the occurrence of major bleeding events. Our results do not support the preferential use of DOAC score over HAS-BLED.

Educational status and the risk of adverse outcomes in Asian patients with atrial fibrillation: a report from the prospective APHRS-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of educational status (ES) on the clinical course of Asian patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: We used data from the prospective APHRS-AF Registry. ES was classified as follows: low (primary school), medium (secondary), and high (University). The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death, thromboembolic events, acute coronary syndrome, and heart failure. Secondary outcomes were each component of the primary outcome, cardiovascular death, and major bleeding. The one-year risk of primary and secondary outcomes was assessed through Cox-regressions. Adherence to the Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway was assessed. RESULTS: Among 2697 AF patients (69±12 years, 34.8% females), 34.6% had low ES; 37.3% had medium ES; and 28.1% had high ES. Compared to patients with medium-high ES, patients with low ES were older, more often females, with a higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, and a lower ABC pathway adherence (30.4% vs. 40.2%, P<0.001). On multivariable analysis, low ES was associated with a higher risk for the primary outcome (HR 1.52,95%CI 1.11-2.06) and all-cause death (HR 1.76,95%CI 1.10-2.83) than medium-high ES. A significant interaction was found for the risk of composite outcome among the different age strata, with the higher risk in the elderly (P for int=0.008), whereas the beneficial effect of the ABC pathway was irrespective of ES (P for int=0.691). CONCLUSIONS: In Asian AF patients, low ES is associated with high mortality. Efforts to improve education and include ES evaluation in the integrated care approach for AF are necessary to reduce the cardiovascular burden in these patients.

Patterns of comorbidities in patients with atrial fibrillation and impact on management and long-term prognosis: an analysis from the Prospective Global GLORIA-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: Clinical complexity, as the interaction between ageing, frailty, multimorbidity and polypharmacy, is an increasing concern in patients with AF. There remains uncertainty regarding how combinations of comorbidities influence management and prognosis of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to identify phenotypes of AF patients according to comorbidities and to assess associations between comorbidity patterns, drug use and risk of major outcomes. METHODS: From the prospective GLORIA-AF Registry, we performed a latent class analysis based on 18 diseases, encompassing cardiovascular, metabolic, respiratory and other conditions; we then analysed the association between phenotypes of patients and (i) treatments received and (ii) the risk of major outcomes. Primary outcome was the composite of all-cause death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Secondary exploratory outcomes were also analysed. RESULTS: 32,560 AF patients (mean age 70.0 ± 10.5 years, 45.4% females) were included. We identified 6 phenotypes: (i) low complexity (39.2% of patients); (ii) cardiovascular (CV) risk factors (28.2%); (iii) atherosclerotic (10.2%); (iv) thromboembolic (8.1%); (v) cardiometabolic (7.6%) and (vi) high complexity (6.6%). Higher use of oral anticoagulants was found in more complex groups, with highest magnitude observed for the cardiometabolic and high complexity phenotypes (odds ratio and 95% confidence interval CI): 1.76 [1.49-2.09] and 1.57 [1.35-1.81], respectively); similar results were observed for beta-blockers and verapamil or diltiazem. We found higher risk of the primary outcome in all phenotypes, except the CV risk factor one, with highest risk observed for the cardiometabolic and high complexity groups (hazard ratio and 95%CI: 1.37 [1.13-1.67] and 1.47 [1.24-1.75], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Comorbidities influence management and long-term prognosis of patients with AF. Patients with complex phenotypes may require comprehensive and holistic approaches to improve their prognosis.

Risk of Death and Cardiovascular Events in Asian Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Report From the Prospective APHRS Registry.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with an increased risk of adverse events in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF); however, few data are available on this topic in Asian populations. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospective observational study conducted on patients with AF enrolled in the Asia-Pacific Heart Rhythm Society (APHRS) AF Registry. The diagnosis of COPD was based on data reported in the case report form by the investigators. Cox-regression models were used to assess the 1-year risk of a primary composite outcome of all-cause death, thromboembolic events, acute coronary syndrome, and heart failure. Analysis on single outcomes and cardiovascular death was also performed. Interaction analysis was used to assess the risk of composite outcome and all-cause death in different subgroups. The study included 4094 patients with AF (mean±SD age 68.5±12 years, 34.6% female), of whom 112 (2.7%) had COPD. Patients with COPD showed a higher incidence of the primary composite outcome (25.1% versus 6.3%, P<0.001), all-cause death (14.9% versus 2.6%, P<0.001), cardiovascular death (2.0% versus 0.6%, P<0.001), and heart failure (8.3% versus 6.0%, P<0.001). On multiple Cox-regression analysis, COPD was associated with a higher risk of the primary composite outcome (hazard ratio [HR], 3.17 [95% CI, 2.05-4.90]), all-cause death (HR, 3.59 [95% CI, 2.04-6.30]), and heart failure (HR, 3.32 [95% CI, 1.56-7.03]); no statistically significant differences were found for other outcomes. The association between COPD and mortality was significantly modified by the use of beta blockers (Pint=0.018). CONCLUSIONS: In Asian patients with AF, COPD is associated with worse prognosis. In patients with AF and COPD, the use of beta blockers was associated with a lower mortality. REGISTRATION INFORMATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT04807049.

Diabetes mellitus in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction: a post hoc analysis from the WARCEF trial.

Patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and diabetes mellitus (DM) have an increased risk of adverse events, including thromboembolism. In this analysis, we aimed to explore the association between DM and HFrEF using data from the "Warfarin versus Aspirin in Reduced Cardiac Ejection Fraction" (WARCEF) trial. We analyzed factors associated with DM using multiple logistic regression models and evaluated the effect of DM on long-term prognosis, through adjusted Cox regressions. The primary outcome was the composite of all-cause death, ischemic stroke, or intracerebral hemorrhage; we explored individual components as the secondary outcomes and the interaction between treatment (warfarin or aspirin) and DM on the risk of the primary outcome, stratified by relevant characteristics. Of 2294 patients (mean age 60.8 (SD 11.3) years, 19.9% females) included in this analysis, 722 (31.5%) had DM. On logistic regression, cardiovascular comorbidities, symptoms and ethnicity were associated with DM at baseline, while age and body mass index showed a nonlinear association. Patients with DM had a higher risk of the primary composite outcome (Hazard Ratio [HR] and 95% Confidence Intervals [CI]: 1.48 [1.24-1.77]), as well as all-cause death (HR [95%CI]: 1.52 [1.25-1.84]). As in prior analyses, no statistically significant interaction was observed between DM and effect of Warfarin on the risk of the primary outcome, in any of the subgroups explored. In conclusion, we found that DM is common in HFrEF patients, and is associated with other cardiovascular comorbidities and risk factors, and with a worse prognosis.

Educational status affects prognosis of patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: A post-hoc analysis from the WARCEF trial.

AIMS: The influence of social determinants of health (SDOH) on the prognosis of Heart Failure and reduced Ejection Fraction (HFrEF) is increasingly reported. We aim to evaluate the contribution of educational status on outcomes in patients with HFrEF. METHODS: We used data from the WARCEF trial, which randomized HFrEF patients with sinus rhythm to receive Warfarin or Aspirin; educational status of patients enrolled was collected at baseline. We defined three levels of education: low, medium and high level, according to the highest qualification achieved or highest school grade attended. We analysed the impact of the educational status on the risk of the primary composite outcome of all-cause death, ischemic stroke (IS) and intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH); components of the primary outcome were also analysed as secondary outcomes. RESULTS: 2295 patients were included in this analysis; of these, 992 (43.2%) had a low educational level, 947 (41.3%) had a medium education level and the remaining 356 (15.5%) showed a high educational level. Compared to patients with high educational level, those with low educational status showed a high risk of the primary composite outcome (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.31, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.02-1.69); a non-statistically significant association was observed in those with medium educational level (aHR: 1.20, 95%CI: .93-1.55). Similar results were observed for all-cause death, while no statistically significant differences were observed for IS or ICH. CONCLUSION: Compared to patients with high educational levels, those with low educational status had worse prognosis. SDOH should be considered in patients with HFrEF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00041938.

Asymptomatic vs. symptomatic atrial fibrillation: Clinical outcomes in heart failure patients.

BACKGROUND: The outcome implications of asymptomatic vs. symptomatic atrial fibrillation (AF) in specific groups of patients according to clinical heart failure (HF) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) need to be clarified. METHODS: In a prospective observational study, patients were categorized according to overt HF with LVEF≤40 %, or with LVEF>40 %, or without overt HF with LVEF40 %≤ or > 40 %, as well as according to the presence of asymptomatic or symptomatic AF. RESULTS: A total of 8096 patients, divided into 8 groups according to HF and LVEF, were included with similar proportions of asymptomatic AF (ranging from 43 to 48 %). After a median follow-up of 730 [699 -748] days, the composite outcome (all-cause death and MACE) was significantly worse for patients with asymptomatic AF associated with HF and reduced LVEF vs. symptomatic AF patients of the same group (p = 0.004). On adjusted Cox regression analysis, asymptomatic AF patients with HF and reduced LVEF were independently associated with a higher risk for the composite outcome (aHR 1.32, 95 % CI 1.04-1.69) and all-cause death (aHR 1.33, 95 % CI 1.02-1.73) compared to symptomatic AF patients with HF and reduced LVEF. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that HF-LVEF≤40 % asymptomatic patients had the highest cumulative incidence of all-cause death and MACE (p < 0.001 for both). CONCLUSIONS: In a large European cohort of AF patients, the risk of the composite outcome at 2 years was not different between asymptomatic and symptomatic AF in the whole cohort but adverse implications for poor outcomes were found for asymptomatic AF in HF with LVEF≤40 %.

Sex as a Risk Factor for Atrial Fibrillation-Related Stroke.

Stroke prevention is crucial for the management of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), and several risk factors have been identified, which increase the risk of AF-related stroke. Among these factors, female sex has been repeatedly associated with AF-related stroke risk; nonetheless, trends toward lower use of oral anticoagulant in women with AF were also reported. In this clinical focus, we discuss about the role of female sex as a risk factor for AF-related stroke, and reflect on the clinical implications of its inclusion among the risk factors for thromboembolic risk stratification in patients with AF.

Implications of Clinical Risk Phenotypes on the Management and Natural History of Atrial Fibrillation: A Report From the GLORIA-AF.

Background Clinical risk factors are common among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but there are still limited data on their association with oral anticoagulant (OAC) treatment patterns and major outcomes. We aim to analyze the association between clinical risk phenotypes on AF treatment patterns and the risk of major outcomes. Methods and Results The GLORIA-AF (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation) phase 2 and 3 registries enrolled patients with a recent diagnosis of AF between 2011 and 2016. We defined 4 features of clinical risk among patients with CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2: elderly individuals (aged ≥80 years), chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate <45 mL/min), history of stroke, and history of bleeding. We analyzed the odds of receiving OAC and the risk of OAC discontinuation and adverse events at follow-up according to specific combinations and cumulative burden of these features. Primary outcome was the composite of all-cause death, thromboembolism, and major bleeding. Among 28 891 (mean±SD age, 70.1±10.5 years; 45.5% women) patients included, 10 797 (37.3%) had at least 1 clinical risk feature. OAC use was lower among patients in the elderly group (odds ratio [OR], 0.85 [95% CI, 0.75-0.96]), those with history of both stroke and bleeding (OR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.35-0.56]), and those with multiple features (OR, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.62-0.82]). Increasing burden of clinical risk features was associated with OAC discontinuation, with highest magnitude in those with ≥3 features (hazard ratio [HR], 1.68 [95% CI, 1.31-2.15]). Groups with increasingly complex clinical risk phenotypes were associated with the occurrence of the primary composite outcome, with the highest figures observed for groups with a history of both stroke and bleeding (adjusted HR, 2.36 [95% CI, 1.83-3.04]) and multiple features (adjusted HR, 2.86 [95% CI, 2.52-3.25]). Conclusions In patients with AF, clinical risk phenotypes are multifaceted and heterogenous, and they are associated with differences in stroke prevention and worse prognosis.

Patterns of oral anticoagulant use and outcomes in Asian patients with atrial fibrillation: a post-hoc analysis from the GLORIA-AF Registry.

Background: Previous studies suggested potential ethnic differences in the management and outcomes of atrial fibrillation (AF). We aim to analyse oral anticoagulant (OAC) prescription, discontinuation, and risk of adverse outcomes in Asian patients with AF, using data from a global prospective cohort study. Methods: From the GLORIA-AF Registry Phase II-III (November 2011-December 2014 for Phase II, and January 2014-December 2016 for Phase III), we analysed patients according to their self-reported ethnicity (Asian vs. non-Asian), as well as according to Asian subgroups (Chinese, Japanese, Korean and other Asian). Logistic regression was used to analyse OAC prescription, while the risk of OAC discontinuation and adverse outcomes were analysed through Cox-regression model. Our primary outcome was the composite of all-cause death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). The original studies were registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01468701, NCT01671007, and NCT01937377. Findings: 34,421 patients were included (70.0 ± 10.5 years, 45.1% females, 6900 (20.0%) Asian: 3829 (55.5%) Chinese, 814 (11.8%) Japanese, 1964 (28.5%) Korean and 293 (4.2%) other Asian). Most of the Asian patients were recruited in Asia (n = 6701, 97.1%), while non-Asian patients were mainly recruited in Europe (n = 15,449, 56.1%) and North America (n = 8378, 30.4%). Compared to non-Asian individuals, prescription of OAC and non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) was lower in Asian patients (Odds Ratio [OR] and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI): 0.23 [0.22-0.25] and 0.66 [0.61-0.71], respectively), but higher in the Japanese subgroup. Asian ethnicity was also associated with higher risk of OAC discontinuation (Hazard Ratio [HR] and [95% CI]: 1.79 [1.67-1.92]), and lower risk of the primary composite outcome (HR [95% CI]: 0.86 [0.76-0.96]). Among the exploratory secondary outcomes, Asian ethnicity was associated with higher risks of thromboembolism and intracranial haemorrhage, and lower risk of major bleeding. Interpretation: Our results showed that Asian patients with AF showed suboptimal thromboembolic risk management and a specific risk profile of adverse outcomes; these differences may also reflect differences in country-specific factors. Ensuring integrated and appropriate treatment of these patients is crucial to improve their prognosis. Funding: The GLORIA-AF Registry was funded by Boehringer Ingelheim GmbH.

Clinical Outcomes in Metabolically Healthy and Unhealthy Obese and Overweight Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Findings From the GLORIA-AF Registry.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the association between metabolic status, body mass index (BMI), and natural history of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: The global, prospective GLORIA-AF Registry Phase II and III included patients with recent diagnosis of AF between November 2011 and December 2014 for Phase II and between January 2014 and December 2016 for Phase III. With this analysis, we categorized patients with AF according to BMI (normal weight [18.5 to 24.9 kg/m2], overweight [25.0 to 29.9 kg/m2], obese [30.0 to 60.0 kg/m2]) and metabolic status (presence of hypertension, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia). We analyzed risk of major outcomes using multivariable Cox regression analyses; the primary outcome was the composite of all-cause death and major adverse cardiovascular events. RESULTS: There were 24,828 (mean age, 70.1±10.3 years; 44.6% female) patients with AF included. Higher BMI was associated with metabolically unhealthy status and higher odds of receiving oral anticoagulants and other treatments. Normal-weight unhealthy patients showed a higher risk of the primary composite outcome (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.20; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.42) and thromboembolism, whereas a lower risk of cardiovascular death (aHR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.88) and major adverse cardiovascular events (aHR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.93) was observed in metabolically healthy obese individuals. Unhealthy metabolic groups were also associated with increased risk of major bleeding (aHR, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.04 to 2.20] and aHR, 1.96 [95% CI, 1.34 to 2.85] in overweight and obese groups, respectively). CONCLUSION: Increasing BMI was associated with poor metabolic status and with more intensive treatment. Prognosis was heterogeneous between BMI groups, with metabolically unhealthy patients showing higher risk of adverse events.

Adherence to the Mediterranean Diet in Preventing Major Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Ischemic Heart Disease: The EVA Study.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to healthy dietary patterns, such as the Mediterranean diet (Med-diet), is recommended for the maintenance of cardiovascular health. The determinants for adherence to Med-diet and its importance in secondary cardiovascular disease prevention are still unclear. The aim of the study was to evaluate the influence of sex- and psycho-socio-cultural (i.e., gender-related) factors on Med-diet adherence and its role in preventing major cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD). METHODS: Med-diet adherence was evaluated among 503 consecutive adults with IHD. MACEs were collected during a long-term follow-up. RESULTS: Male Bem Sex-Role Inventory score (i.e., male personality traits) and physical functional capacity were associated with higher adherence, while cohabitation with a smoker and physical inactivity with poorer adherence. During a median follow-up of 22 months, 48 participants experienced MACEs (17.5%, 8.1%, and 3.9% of patients with low, medium, and high adherence, respectively; p = 0.016). At multivariate Cox--regression analysis, a greater adherence remained inversely associated with MACEs (HR: 0.49; 95% CI: 0.29-0.82; p = 0.006) after adjusting for confounding factors. CONCLUSION: The study suggests that gender-related factors have a role in maintaining a healthy dietary pattern. Improving Med-diet adherence may lower the risk of recurring cardiovascular events.

Mobile health technology integrated care in atrial fibrillation patients with diabetes mellitus in China: A subgroup analysis of the mAFA-II cluster randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The Mobile Health Technology for Improved Screening and Optimized Integrated Care in AF (mAFA-II) prospective randomized trial showed the efficacy of a mobile health (mHealth) implemented 'Atrial fibrillation Better Care' (ABC) pathway for the integrated care management of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). In this ancillary analysis, we evaluated the effect of mAFA intervention according to the history of diabetes mellitus (DM). METHODS: The mAFA-II trial enrolled 3324 AF patients across 40 centres in China, between June 2018 and August 2019. In this analysis, we assessed the interaction between history of DM and the effect of mAFA intervention on the risk of the primary composite outcome of stroke, thromboembolism, all-cause death and rehospitalizations. Results were expressed as adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). The effect of mAFA intervention on exploratory secondary outcomes was also assessed. RESULTS: Overall, 747 (22.5%) patients had DM (mean age: 72.7 ± 12.3, 39.6% females; 381 allocated to mAFA intervention). mAFA intervention was associated with a significant risk reduction for the primary composite outcome both in patients with and without DM (aHR [95%CI]: .36 [.18-.73] and .37 [.23-.61], respectively, p for interaction = .941). A significant interaction was found only for the composite of recurrent AF, heart failure and acute coronary syndromes (pint =.025), with lower effect of mAFA intervention in patients with DM. CONCLUSIONS: A mHealth-technology implemented ABC pathway showed a consistent effect in reducing the risk of the primary composite outcome in AF patients with and without DM. TRIAL REGISTRATION: WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) Registration number: ChiCTR-OOC-17014138.

Mobile Health-Technology-Integrated Care for Atrial Fibrillation: A Win Ratio Analysis from the mAFA-II Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: The Mobile Health (mHealth) Technology for Improved Screening and Optimized Integrated Care in atrial fibrillation (AF) (mAFA-II) cluster randomized trial assessed the efficacy of an integrated care approach in improving the prognosis of AF patients. In this study, we provide a reanalysis of the trial outcomes using the win ratio (WR) approach. METHODS: The mAFA-II trial allocated patients to receive a mHealth-technology implemented Atrial Fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway (mAFA intervention) or usual care. The primary outcome was the composite of all-cause death, ischemic stroke or systemic thromboembolism, and rehospitalization. The efficacy of the mAFA intervention was analyzed according to the WR method using the unmatched pairs approach, with the components of the primary outcome analyzed hierarchically as follows: (1) all-cause death; (2) ischemic stroke or thromboembolism; (3) rehospitalization. Results were reported as WR and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In addition, we calculated win odds (WO) and 95% CI. RESULTS: A total of 3,324 patients were enrolled in the mAFA-II trial and included in this analysis (1,646 allocated to mAFA intervention and 1,678 to usual care). Among 2,761,988 unmatched pairs comparisons, the number of wins was higher in the mAFA intervention group, with a WR: 2.78 (95% CI: 1.85-4.17). WO confirmed the effect of mAFA intervention, although with a lower magnitude (WO: 1.06; 95% Cl: 1.04-1.08). CONCLUSION: In this posthoc WR analysis of the mAFA-II trial, a mHealth-technology-implemented integrated care approach was effective in reducing the risk of the primary composite outcome of all-cause death, ischemic stroke or thromboembolism, and rehospitalization, even when prioritizing fatal events.

Yield of diagnosis and risk of stroke with screening strategies for atrial fibrillation: a comprehensive review of current evidence.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent arrhythmia worldwide. The presence of AF is associated with increased risk of systemic thromboembolism, but with the uptake of oral anticoagulant (OAC) and implementation of a holistic and integrated care management, this risk is substantially reduced. The diagnosis of AF requires a 30-s-long electrocardiographic (ECG) trace, irrespective of the presence of symptoms, which may represent the main indication for an ECG tracing. However, almost half patients are asymptomatic at the time of incidental AF diagnosis, with similar risk of stroke of those with clinical AF. This has led to a crucial role of screening for AF, to increase the diagnosis of population at risk of clinical events. The aim of this review is to give a comprehensive overview about the epidemiology of asymptomatic AF, the different screening technologies, the yield of diagnosis in asymptomatic population, and the benefit derived from screening in terms of reduction of clinical adverse events, such as stroke, cardiovascular, and all-cause death. We aim to underline the importance of implementing AF screening programmes and reporting about the debate between scientific societies' clinical guidelines recommendations and the concerns expressed by the regulatory authorities, which still do not recommend population-wide screening. This review summarizes data on the ongoing trials specifically designed to investigate the benefit of screening in terms of risk of adverse events which will further elucidate the importance of screening in reducing risk of outcomes and influence and inform clinical practice in the next future.

A machine-learning based bio-psycho-social model for the prediction of non-obstructive and obstructive coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND: Mechanisms of myocardial ischemia in obstructive and non-obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD), and the interplay between clinical, functional, biological and psycho-social features, are still far to be fully elucidated. OBJECTIVES: To develop a machine-learning (ML) model for the supervised prediction of obstructive versus non-obstructive CAD. METHODS: From the EVA study, we analysed adults hospitalized for IHD undergoing conventional coronary angiography (CCA). Non-obstructive CAD was defined by a stenosis < 50% in one or more vessels. Baseline clinical and psycho-socio-cultural characteristics were used for computing a Rockwood and Mitnitski frailty index, and a gender score according to GENESIS-PRAXY methodology. Serum concentration of inflammatory cytokines was measured with a multiplex flow cytometry assay. Through an XGBoost classifier combined with an explainable artificial intelligence tool (SHAP), we identified the most influential features in discriminating obstructive versus non-obstructive CAD. RESULTS: Among the overall EVA cohort (n = 509), 311 individuals (mean age 67 ± 11 years, 38% females; 67% obstructive CAD) with complete data were analysed. The ML-based model (83% accuracy and 87% precision) showed that while obstructive CAD was associated with higher frailty index, older age and a cytokine signature characterized by IL-1ß, IL-12p70 and IL-33, non-obstructive CAD was associated with a higher gender score (i.e., social characteristics traditionally ascribed to women) and with a cytokine signature characterized by IL-18, IL-8, IL-23. CONCLUSIONS: Integrating clinical, biological, and psycho-social features, we have optimized a sex- and gender-unbiased model that discriminates obstructive and non-obstructive CAD. Further mechanistic studies will shed light on the biological plausibility of these associations. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02737982.

Features of Clinical Complexity in European Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: A Report From a European Observational Prospective AF Registry.

There is increasing concern regarding impact of clinical complexity in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We explored the impact of different clinical complexity features in AF patients. We analyzed patients from a prospective, observational, multicenter Europe-wide AF registry. Features of clinical complexity among patients with CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2 were: (1) history of bleeding; (2) frailty; (3) chronic kidney disease (CKD); (4) ≥2 features. A total of 10,169 patients were analyzed. Of these, 141 (1.4%) had history of bleeding, 954 (9.4%) were frail, 1767 (17.4%) had CKD and 1253 (12.3%) had ≥2 features. All features of clinical complexity were less treated with OAC. History of bleeding (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.32-2.85), frailty (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.11-1.71), CKD (HR 1.50, 95% 1.28-1.75) and ≥2 features (HR 2.08, 95% CI 1.73-2.51) were associated with outcomes. Presence of features of clinical complexity is associated with lower use of OAC and higher risk of outcomes.