Beyond the Descriptive: A Comprehensive, Multi-domain Validation of Symptom Trajectories for Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis.

BACKGROUND: Although the Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) criteria are widely used to ascertain individuals at heightened risk for imminent onset of psychosis, it remains controversial whether CHR-P status define a diagnostic construct in its own right. In a prior study, CHR-P non-converters were observed to follow three distinct trajectories in symptoms and functioning: remission, partial remission, and maintenance of symptoms and functional impairments at subthreshold levels of intensity. METHODS: Here, we utilized the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study Phase 3 (NAPLS3) sample (N = 806) to determine whether: 1) the same trajectory groups can be detected when assessing symptoms at 2-month intervals over an 8-month period and 2) the resulting trajectory groups differ from each other and from healthy controls and converting CHR-P cases in terms of risk factors, comorbidities, and functional outcomes. RESULTS: Three distinctive subgroups within the CHR non-converters were identified, largely paralleling those previously observed. Importantly, these extracted groups, along with non-CHR controls and CHR converters, differ from each other significantly with respect to putative etiological risk factors (e.g., predicted risk scores, physiological and self-report measures of stress), affective comorbidities, as well as functional outcomes, providing converging evidence supporting the validity of the identified trajectory groups. CONCLUSIONS: This pattern, along with the fact that even the subgroup of CHR-P nonconverters showing a remission trajectory deviated from healthy controls, supports treating the CHR-P syndrome not just as a status that denotes risk for onset of full psychosis, but also as a marker of ongoing distress for a population in need of interventions.

Cognitive subtypes in youth at clinical high risk for psychosis.

Introduction: Schizophrenia is a mental health condition that severely impacts well-being. Cognitive impairment is among its core features, often presenting well before the onset of overt psychosis, underscoring a critical need to study it in the psychosis proneness (clinical high risk; CHR) stage, to maximize the benefits of interventions and to improve clinical outcomes. However, given the heterogeneity of cognitive impairment in this population, a one-size-fits-all approach to therapeutic interventions would likely be insufficient. Thus, identifying cognitive subtypes in this population is crucial for tailored and successful therapeutic interventions. Here we identify, validate, and characterize cognitive subtypes in large CHR samples and delineate their baseline and longitudinal cognitive and functional trajectories. Methods: Using machine learning, we performed cluster analysis on cognitive measures in a large sample of CHR youth (n = 764), and demographically comparable controls (HC; n = 280) from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS) 2, and independently validated our findings with an equally large sample (NAPLS 3; n = 628 CHR, 84 HC). By utilizing several statistical approaches, we compared the clusters on cognition and functioning at baseline, and over 24 months of followup. We further delineate the conversion status within those clusters. Results: Two main cognitive clusters were identified, "impaired" and "intact" across all cognitive domains in CHR compared to HC. Baseline differences between the cognitively intact cluster and HC were found in the verbal abilities and attention and working memory domains. Longitudinally, those in the cognitively impaired cluster group demonstrated an overall floor effect and did not deteriorate further over time. However, a "catch up" trajectory was observed in the attention and working memory domain. This group had higher instances of conversion overall, with these converters having significantly more non-affective psychotic disorder diagnosis versus bipolar disorder, than those with intact cognition. In the cognitively intact group, we observed differences in trajectory based on conversion status, where those who start with intact cognition and later convert demonstrate a sharp decline in attention and functioning. Functioning was significantly better in the cognitively intact than in the impaired group at baseline. Most of the cognitive trajectories demonstrate a positive relationship with functional ones. Conclusion: Our findings provide evidence for intact and impaired cognitive subtypes in youth at CHR, independent of conversion status. They further indicate that attention and working memory are important to distinguish between the CHR with intact cognition and controls. The cognitively intact CHR group becomes less attentive after conversion, while the cognitively impaired one demonstrates a catch up trajectory on both attention and working memory. Overall, early evaluation, covering several cognitive domains, is crucial for identifying trajectories of improvement and deterioration for the purpose of tailoring intervention for improving outcomes in individuals at CHR for psychosis.

Fetal Gene Regulatory Gene Deletions are Associated with Poor Cognition and Altered Cortical Morphology in Schizophrenia and Community-Based Samples.

Schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSDs) are characterized by substantial clinical and genetic heterogeneity. Multiple recurrent copy number variants (CNVs) increase risk for SSDs; however, how known risk CNVs and broader genome-wide CNVs influence clinical variability is unclear. The current study examined associations between borderline intellectual functioning or childhood-onset psychosis, known risk CNVs, and burden of deletions affecting genes in 18 previously validated neurodevelopmental gene-sets in 618 SSD individuals. CNV associations were assessed for replication in 235 SSD relatives and 583 controls, and 9,930 youth from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study. Known SSD- and neurodevelopmental disorder (NDD)-risk CNVs were associated with borderline intellectual functioning in SSD cases (odds ratios (OR) = 7.09 and 4.57, respectively); NDD-risk deletions were nominally associated with childhood-onset psychosis (OR = 4.34). Furthermore, deletion of genes involved in regulating gene expression during fetal brain development was associated with borderline intellectual functioning across SSD cases and non-cases (OR = 2.58), with partial replication in the ABCD cohort. Exploratory analyses of cortical morphology showed associations between fetal gene regulatory gene deletions and altered gray matter volume and cortical thickness across cohorts. Results highlight contributions of known risk CNVs to phenotypic variability in SSD and the utility of a neurodevelopmental framework for identifying mechanisms that influence phenotypic variability in SSDs, as well as the broader population, with implications for personalized medicine approaches to care.

Unique functional neuroimaging signatures of genetic versus clinical high risk for psychosis.

BACKGROUND: 22q11.2 Deletion Syndrome (22qDel) is a copy number variant (CNV) associated with psychosis and other neurodevelopmental disorders. Adolescents at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) are identified based on the presence of subthreshold psychosis symptoms. Whether common neural substrates underlie these distinct high-risk populations is unknown. We compared functional brain measures in 22qDel and CHR cohorts and mapped results to biological pathways. METHODS: We analyzed two large multi-site cohorts with resting-state functional MRI (rs-fMRI): 1) 22qDel (n=164, 47% female) and typically developing (TD) controls (n=134, 56% female); 2) CHR individuals (n=244, 41% female) and TD controls (n=151, 46% female) from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study-2. We computed global brain connectivity (GBC), local connectivity (LC), and brain signal variability (BSV) across cortical regions, testing case-control differences for 22qDel and CHR separately. Group difference maps were related to published brain maps using autocorrelation-preserving permutation. RESULTS: BSV, LC, and GBC are significantly disrupted in 22qDel compared with TD controls (False Discovery Rate q<0.05). Spatial maps of BSV and LC differences are highly correlated with each other, unlike GBC. In CHR, only LC is significantly altered versus controls, with a different spatial pattern compared to 22qDel. Group differences map onto biological gradients, with 22qDel effects strongest in regions with high predicted blood flow and metabolism. CONCLUSION: 22qDel and CHR exhibit divergent effects on fMRI temporal variability and multi-scale functional connectivity. In 22qDel, strong and convergent disruptions in BSV and LC not seen in CHR individuals suggest distinct functional brain alterations.

Sleep disturbance, suicidal ideation and psychosis-risk symptoms in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis.

Insomnia and suicidal ideation (SI) are common in schizophrenia, including in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P). Previous studies have found associations between sleep disturbance, SI, and psychopathology in schizophrenia. We explored these associations in a CHR-P cohort. We leveraged data from CHR-P individuals in the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Studies (NAPLS-3) (n = 688) cohort. We investigated relationships between sleep disturbance (Scale of Prodromal Symptoms [SOPS]; Calgary Depression Scale for Schizophrenia [CDSS], and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index [PSQI]), suicidal ideation (CDSS), and psychosis-risk symptoms. The prevalence of terminal insomnia, sleep disturbance, and SI in NAPLS3 was 25 %, 69 %, and 29 %, respectively. After controlling for potential confounders, multiple indices of sleep disturbance (SOPS, PSQI: OR = 1.05-1.40) were significant indicators of concurrent SI. Terminal insomnia was not associated with conversion to psychosis. Multiple indices of sleep problems were associated with higher total and subscale psychosis-risk symptom scores (ß = 0.09-0.39). Sleep problems are prevalent and associated with SI and more severe psychosis-risk symptoms in CHR-P individuals. These findings underscore the importance of designing longitudinal intervention studies to investigate whether the treatment of sleep disturbances may reduce suicidality and symptoms in this population.

Improving processing speed in adolescents at clinical high risk for psychosis with the Specific COgnitive REmediation plus Surround (SCORES) intervention: Study protocol.

AIM: Recent preventative approaches with young people at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) have focused on the remediation of the cognitive deficits that are readily apparent and predictive of future illness. However, the small number of trials using cognitive remediation with CHR-P individuals have reported mixed results. The proposed 2-phased study will test an innovative internet-based and remotely-delivered Specific COgnitive REmediation plus Surround (or SCORES) intervention that targets early processing speed deficits in CHR-P adolescents aged 14-20 years old. METHODS: In the first R61 phase, a single-arm 2-year proof of concept study, 30 CHR-P individuals will receive SCORES for 10 weeks (4 h per week/40 h total) with a midpoint assessment at 20 h (5 weeks) to demonstrate target engagement and identify the optimal dose needed to engage the target. The Go/No-Go criteria to move to the R33 phase will be processing speed scores improving by a medium effect size (Cohen's d ≥ .6). The proposed package includes a set of complimentary support surround procedures to increase enjoyment and ensure that participants will complete the home-based training. In the second R33 phase, a 3-year pilot study, we will replicate target engagement in a new and larger sample of 54 CHR-P individuals randomized to SCORES (optimized dose) or to a video game playing control condition. In addition, the R33 phase will determine if changes in processing speed are associated with improved social functioning and decreasing attenuated positive symptoms. The support surround components of the intervention will remain constant across phases and conditions in the R33 phase to firmly establish the centrality of processing speed training for successful remediation. CONCLUSIONS: The SCORES study is a completely virtual intervention that targets a core cognitive mechanism, processing speed, which is a rate-limiting factor to higher order behaviours and clinical outcomes in CHR-P adolescents. The virtual nature of this study should increase feasibility as well improve the future scalability of the intervention with considerable potential for future dissemination as a complete treatment package.

Neurocognition in adolescents and young adults at clinical high risk for psychosis: Predictive stability for social and role functioning.

The prodromal phase of schizophrenia provides an optimal opportunity to mitigate the profound functional disability that is often associated with fully expressed psychosis. Considerable evidence supports the importance of neurocognition in the development of interpersonal (social) and academic (role) skills. Further findings from adolescents and young adults at clinical high risk for developing psychosis (CHRP) suggest that treatment for functioning might be most effective when targeting early and specific neurocognitive deficits. The current study addresses this critical intervention issue by examining the potential of neurocognitive deficits at intake for predicting social and role functioning over time in CHR-P youth. The study included 345 CHR-P participants from the second phase of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS2) with baseline neurocognition and 2-year follow-up data on social and role functioning. Slower baseline processing speed consistently predicted poor social functioning over time, while attention deficits predicted poor role functioning at baseline and follow-up. In addition, the impact of processing speed and attention impairments on social and role functioning, respectively, persisted even when adjusting the regression models for attenuated positive, negative, and disorganized symptoms, and transition status. The current study demonstrates for, arguably the first time, that processing speed and attention are strongly predictive of social and role functioning over time, respectively, above and beyond the impact of symptoms and those CHR-P individuals that develop psychosis over the course of the study. These findings imply that early neurocognition is a critical treatment target linked to the developmental trajectory of social and role functioning.

Sex differences in clinical presentation in youth at high risk for psychosis who transition to psychosis.

Sex differences have been observed in individuals with schizophrenia and for those at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. However, specific differences in CHR individuals who transition to psychosis remain inconsistent and understudied. This study aimed to investigate sex differences in 156 CHR individuals who made the transition to psychosis. A wide range of demographics, positive and negative symptoms, depression, anxiety, social and role functioning, trauma, and substance use were assessed at baseline and symptoms and diagnoses at the time of transition. Fluctuations in positive and negative symptoms and different medications were also assessed. No sex differences were observed at baseline for those who later transitioned to psychosis. At transition, males were significantly more likely to be diagnosed as having schizophrenia or schizophreniform disorder and through the course of the study, males were more likely to be taking stimulants. Limitations in this study was the lack of longitudinal follow-up post transition. The study highlights the need for further research on sex differences in individuals who transition to psychosis. Understanding these differences can have implications for treatment and monitoring of CHR individuals.

Longitudinal Trajectories of Premorbid Social and Academic Adjustment in Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: Implications for Conversion.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Social and academic adjustment deteriorate in the years preceding a psychotic disorder diagnosis. Analyses of premorbid adjustment have recently been extended into the clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) syndrome to identify risk factors and developmental pathways toward psychotic disorders. Work so far has been at the between-person level, which has constrained analyses of premorbid adjustment, clinical covariates, and conversion to psychosis. STUDY DESIGN: Growth-curve models examined longitudinal trajectories in retrospective reports of premorbid social and academic adjustment from youth at CHR (n = 498). Interaction models tested whether known covariates of premorbid adjustment problems (attenuated negative symptoms, cognition, and childhood trauma) were associated with different premorbid adjustment trajectories in converters vs non-converters (ie, participants who did/did not develop psychotic disorders within 2-year follow-up). STUDY RESULTS: Converters reported poorer social adjustment throughout the premorbid period. Converters who developed psychosis with an affective component reported poorer academic adjustment throughout the premorbid period than those who developed non-affective psychosis. Tentatively, baseline attenuated negative symptoms may have been associated with worsening social adjustment in the premorbid period for non-converters only. Childhood trauma impact was associated with fewer academic functioning problems among converters. Cognition effects did not differ based on conversion status. CONCLUSIONS: Premorbid social function is an important factor in risk for conversion to psychosis. Negative symptoms and childhood trauma had different relationships to premorbid functioning in converters vs non-converters. Mechanisms linking symptoms and trauma to functional impairment may be different in converters vs non-converters, suggesting possible new avenues for risk assessment.

The Complex Latent Structure of Attenuated Psychotic Symptoms: Hierarchical and Bifactor Models of SIPS Symptoms Replicated in Two Large Samples at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: The Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes (SIPS) and other assessments of psychosis risk define clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) by the presence of attenuated psychotic symptoms. Despite extensive research on attenuated psychotic symptoms, substantial questions remain about their internal psychometric structure and relationships to comorbid non-psychotic symptoms. STUDY DESIGN: Hierarchical and bifactor models were developed for the SIPS in a large CHR sample (NAPLS-3, N = 787) and confirmed through preregistered replication in an independent sample (NAPLS-2, N = 1043). Criterion validity was tested through relationships with CHR status, comorbid symptoms/diagnoses, functional impairment, demographics, neurocognition, and conversion to psychotic disorders. STUDY RESULTS: Most variance in SIPS items (75%-77%) was attributable to a general factor. Hierarchical and bifactor models included a general factor and five specific/lower-order factors (positive symptoms, eccentricity, avolition, lack of emotion, and deteriorated thought process). CHR participants were elevated on the general factor and the positive symptoms factor. The general factor was associated with depressive symptoms; functional impairment; and mood, anxiety, and schizotypal personality diagnoses. The general factor was the best predictor of psychotic disorders (d ≥ 0.50). Positive symptoms and eccentricity had specific effects on conversion outcomes. The deteriorated thought process was least meaningful/replicable. CONCLUSIONS: Attenuated psychotic symptoms, measured by the SIPS, have a complex hierarchical structure with a strong general factor. The general factor relates to internalizing symptoms and functional impairment, emphasizing the roles of general psychopathological distress/impairment in psychosis risk. Shared symptom variance complicates the interpretation of raw symptom scores. Broad transdiagnostic assessment is warranted to model psychosis risk accurately.

Plasma complement and coagulation proteins as prognostic factors of negative symptoms: An analysis of the NAPLS 2 and 3 studies.

INTRODUCTION: Negative symptoms impact the quality of life of individuals with psychosis and current treatment options for negative symptoms have limited effectiveness. Previous studies have demonstrated that complement and coagulation pathway protein levels are related to later psychotic experiences, psychotic disorder, and functioning. However, the prognostic relationship between complement and coagulation proteins and negative symptoms is poorly characterised. METHODS: In the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Studies 2 and 3, negative symptoms in 431 individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (mean age: 18.2, SD 3.6; 42.5 % female) were measured at multiple visits over 2 years using the Scale of Psychosis-Risk Symptoms. Plasma proteins were quantified at baseline using mass spectrometry. Four factors were derived to represent levels of proteins involved in the activation or regulation of the complement or coagulation systems. The relationships between standardised protein group factors and serial measurements of negative symptoms over time were modelled using generalised least squares regression. Analyses were adjusted for baseline candidate prognostic factors: negative symptoms, positive symptoms, functioning, depressive symptoms, suicidal ideation, cannabis use, tobacco use, antipsychotic use, antidepressant use, age, and sex. RESULTS: Clinical and demographic prognostic factors of follow-up negative symptoms included negative, positive, and depressive symptoms, functioning, and age. Adjusting for all candidate prognostic factors, the complement regulators group and the coagulation regulators group were identified as prognostic factors of follow-up negative symptoms (ß: 0.501, 95 % CI: 0.160, 0.842; ß: 0.430, 95 % CI: 0.080, 0.780 respectively. The relationship between complement regulator levels and negative symptoms was also observed in NAPLS2 alone (ß: 0.501, 95 % CI: -0.037, 1.039) and NAPLS3 alone, additionally adjusting for BMI (ß: 0.442, 95 % CI: 0.127, 0.757). CONCLUSION: The results indicate that plasma complement and coagulation regulator levels are prognostic factors of negative symptoms, independent of clinical and demographic prognostic factors. These results suggest complement and coagulation regulator levels could have potential utility in informing treatment decisions for negative symptoms in individuals at risk.

The hierarchical taxonomy of psychopathology in clinical high risk for psychosis: Validation and extension.

The Hierarchical Taxonomy of Psychopathology (HiTOP) consortium's transdiagnostic dimensional model of psychopathology has considerable support; however, this model has been underresearched in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P), a population that may advance the model. CHR-P individuals not only have attenuated psychotic symptoms that vary in severity, but also have many comorbid diagnoses and varied clinical outcomes, including disorders with uncertain relations to HiTOP (e.g., obsessive-compulsive disorder). The present study used self-report and interview data from North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study-3 (710 CHR, 96 controls) to replicate the HiTOP model and test specific hypotheses regarding disorders with uncertain relations to its dimensions. Additionally, the present study examined the HiTOP model in relation to childhood trauma, declines in social functioning, and development of full psychosis. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the HiTOP model's fit was nearly adequate (e.g., comparative fit index = .89), though several theory-relevant modifications were indicated. Additionally, specific tests were conducted to gain a more fine-grained perspective on how disorders with less clear prior evidence were related to the HiTOP model. Notable findings from these analyses include bipolar spectrum disorders relating to the psychosis super spectrum (i.e., .39 loading), and obsessive-compulsive disorder showing a complex pattern of loadings (e.g., internalizing and psychosis). The final model parsimoniously accounted for childhood trauma (e.g., super spectra rs = .22-.32), associations with current functioning, and predicted future conversion to a psychotic disorder (e.g., super spectra R² = .13). Overall, these results inform the HiTOP model and suggest its promise for CHR-P research. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia (AMP® SCZ): Rationale and Study Design of the Largest Global Prospective Cohort Study of Clinical High Risk for Psychosis.

This article describes the rationale, aims, and methodology of the Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia (AMP® SCZ). This is the largest international collaboration to date that will develop algorithms to predict trajectories and outcomes of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis and to advance the development and use of novel pharmacological interventions for CHR individuals. We present a description of the participating research networks and the data processing analysis and coordination center, their processes for data harmonization across 43 sites from 13 participating countries (recruitment across North America, Australia, Europe, Asia, and South America), data flow and quality assessment processes, data analyses, and the transfer of data to the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) Data Archive (NDA) for use by the research community. In an expected sample of approximately 2000 CHR individuals and 640 matched healthy controls, AMP SCZ will collect clinical, environmental, and cognitive data along with multimodal biomarkers, including neuroimaging, electrophysiology, fluid biospecimens, speech and facial expression samples, novel measures derived from digital health technologies including smartphone-based daily surveys, and passive sensing as well as actigraphy. The study will investigate a range of clinical outcomes over a 2-year period, including transition to psychosis, remission or persistence of CHR status, attenuated positive symptoms, persistent negative symptoms, mood and anxiety symptoms, and psychosocial functioning. The global reach of AMP SCZ and its harmonized innovative methods promise to catalyze the development of new treatments to address critical unmet clinical and public health needs in CHR individuals.

Proteomic Biomarkers for the Prediction of Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk: A Multi-cohort Model Development Study.

Psychosis risk prediction is one of the leading challenges in psychiatry. Previous investigations have suggested that plasma proteomic data may be useful in accurately predicting transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR). We hypothesized that an a priori-specified proteomic prediction model would have strong predictive accuracy for psychosis risk and aimed to replicate longitudinal associations between plasma proteins and transition to psychosis. This study used plasma samples from participants in 3 CHR cohorts: the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Studies 2 and 3, and the NEURAPRO randomized control trial (total n = 754). Plasma proteomic data were quantified using mass spectrometry. The primary outcome was transition to psychosis over the study follow-up period. Logistic regression models were internally validated, and optimism-corrected performance metrics derived with a bootstrap procedure. In the overall sample of CHR participants (age: 18.5, SD: 3.9; 51.9% male), 20.4% (n = 154) developed psychosis within 4.4 years. The a priori-specified model showed poor risk-prediction accuracy for the development of psychosis (C-statistic: 0.51 [95% CI: 0.50, 0.59], calibration slope: 0.45). At a group level, Complement C8B, C4B, C5, and leucine-rich α-2 glycoprotein 1 (LRG1) were associated with transition to psychosis but did not surpass correction for multiple comparisons. This study did not confirm the findings from a previous proteomic prediction model of transition from CHR to psychosis. Certain complement proteins may be weakly associated with transition at a group level. Previous findings, derived from small samples, should be interpreted with caution.

Development of the PSYCHS: Positive SYmptoms and Diagnostic Criteria for the CAARMS Harmonized with the SIPS.

AIM: To harmonize two ascertainment and severity rating instruments commonly used for the clinical high risk syndrome for psychosis (CHR-P): the Structured Interview for Psychosis-risk Syndromes (SIPS) and the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States (CAARMS). METHODS: The initial workshop is described in the companion report from Addington et al. After the workshop, lead experts for each instrument continued harmonizing attenuated positive symptoms and criteria for psychosis and CHR-P through an intensive series of joint videoconferences. RESULTS: Full harmonization was achieved for attenuated positive symptom ratings and psychosis criteria, and modest harmonization for CHR-P criteria. The semi-structured interview, named Positive SYmptoms and Diagnostic Criteria for the CAARMS Harmonized with the SIPS (PSYCHS), generates CHR-P criteria and severity scores for both CAARMS and SIPS. CONCLUSIONS: Using the PSYCHS for CHR-P ascertainment, conversion determination, and attenuated positive symptom severity rating will help in comparing findings across studies and in meta-analyses.

Improving prediction of psychosis in youth at clinical high-risk: pre-baseline symptom duration and cortical thinning as moderators of the NAPLS2 risk calculator.

BACKGROUND: Clinical implementation of risk calculator models in the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) population has been hindered by heterogeneous risk distributions across study cohorts which could be attributed to pre-ascertainment illness progression. To examine this, we tested whether the duration of attenuated psychotic symptom (APS) worsening prior to baseline moderated performance of the North American prodrome longitudinal study 2 (NAPLS2) risk calculator. We also examined whether rates of cortical thinning, another marker of illness progression, bolstered clinical prediction models. METHODS: Participants from both the NAPLS2 and NAPLS3 samples were classified as either 'long' or 'short' symptom duration based on time since APS increase prior to baseline. The NAPLS2 risk calculator model was applied to each of these groups. In a subset of NAPLS3 participants who completed follow-up magnetic resonance imaging scans, change in cortical thickness was combined with the individual risk score to predict conversion to psychosis. RESULTS: The risk calculator models achieved similar performance across the combined NAPLS2/NAPLS3 sample [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.69], the long duration group (AUC = 0.71), and the short duration group (AUC = 0.71). The shorter duration group was younger and had higher baseline APS than the longer duration group. The addition of cortical thinning improved the prediction of conversion significantly for the short duration group (AUC = 0.84), with a moderate improvement in prediction for the longer duration group (AUC = 0.78). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that early illness progression differs among CHR-P patients, is detectable with both clinical and neuroimaging measures, and could play an essential role in the prediction of clinical outcomes.

Relations of Lifetime Perceived Stress and Basal Cortisol With Hippocampal Volume Among Healthy Adolescents and Those at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach.

BACKGROUND: Hippocampal volume (HV) is sensitive to environmental influences. Under normative conditions in humans, HV increases linearly into childhood and asymptotes in early adulthood. Studies of humans and nonhuman animals have provided evidence of inverse relationships between several measures of stress and HV. METHODS: Using structural equation modeling, this study aimed to characterize the relationships of age, basal cortisol, biological sex, and lifetime perceived stress with bilateral HV in a sample of healthy adolescents and adolescents at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) (N = 571, 43% female; age range = 12-19.9 years). This sample included 469 individuals at CHR-P and 102 healthy comparison participants from the combined baseline cohorts of the second and third NAPLS (North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study). RESULTS: A structural model that constrained the individual effects of basal cortisol and perceived stress to single path coefficients, and freely estimated the effects of age and biological sex in group models, optimized model fit and parsimony relative to other candidate models. Significant inverse relationships between basal cortisol and bilateral HV were observed in adolescents at CHR-P and healthy comparison participants. Significant sex differences in bilateral HV were also observed, with females demonstrating smaller HV than males in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Multigroup structural equation modeling revealed heterogeneity in the relationships of age and biological sex with basal cortisol, lifetime perceived stress, and bilateral HV in individuals at CHR-P and healthy comparison participants. Moreover, the findings support previous literature indicating that elevated basal cortisol is a nonspecific risk factor for reduced HV.