An investigation into the impact of nine catchment characteristics on the accuracy of two phosphorus load apportionment models.

Phosphorus (P) load apportionment models (LAMs), requiring only spatially and temporally paired P and flow (Q) measurements, provide outputs of variable accuracy using long-term monthly datasets. Using a novel approach to investigate the impact of catchment characteristics on accuracy variation, 91 watercourses' Q-P datasets were applied to two LAMs, BM and GM, and bootstrapped to ascertain standard errors (SEs). Random forest and regression analysis on data pertaining to catchments' land use, steepness, size, base flow and sinuosity were used to identify the individual relative importance of a variable on SE. For BM, increasing urban cover was influential on raising SEs, accounting for c.19% of observed variation, whilst analysis for GM found no individually important catchment characteristic. Assessment of model fit evidenced BM consistently outperformed GM, modelling P values to ±10% of actual P values in 85.7% of datasets, as opposed to 17.6% by GM. Further catchment characteristics are needed to account for SE variation within both models, whilst interaction between variables may also be present. Future research should focus on quantifying these possible interactions and should expand catchment characteristics included within the random forest. Both LAMs must also be tested on a wide range of high temporal resolution datasets to ascertain if they can adequately model storm events in catchments with diverse characteristics.

The application of high temporal resolution data in river catchment modelling and management strategies.

Modelling changes in river water quality, and by extension developing river management strategies, has historically been reliant on empirical data collected at relatively low temporal resolutions. With access to data collected at higher temporal resolutions, this study investigated how these new dataset types could be employed to assess the precision and accuracy of two phosphorus (P) load apportionment models (LAMs) developed on lower resolution empirical data. Predictions were made of point and diffuse sources of P across ten different sampling scenarios. Sampling resolution ranged from hourly to monthly through the use of 2000 newly created datasets from high frequency P and discharge data collected from a eutrophic river draining a 9.48 km2 catchment. Outputs from the two LAMs were found to differ significantly in the P load apportionment (51.4% versus 4.6% from point sources) with reducing precision and increasing bias as sampling frequency decreased. Residual analysis identified a large deviation from observed data at high flows. This deviation affected the apportionment of P from diffuse sources in particular. The study demonstrated the potential problems in developing empirical models such as LAMs based on temporally relatively poorly-resolved data (the level of resolution that is available for the majority of catchments). When these models are applied ad hoc and outside an expert modelling framework using extant datasets of lower resolution, interpretations of their outputs could potentially reduce the effectiveness of management decisions aimed at improving water quality.