CO2 induced seawater acidification impacts survival and development of European eel embryos.

Fish embryos may be vulnerable to seawater acidification resulting from anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions or from excessive biological CO2 production in aquaculture systems. This study investigated CO2 effects on embryos of the European eel (Anguilla anguilla), a catadromous fish that is considered at risk from climate change and that is targeted for hatchery production to sustain aquaculture of the species. Eel embryos were reared in three independent recirculation systems with different pH/CO2 levels representing "control" (pH 8.1, 300 µatm CO2), end-of-century climate change ("intermediate", pH 7.6, 900 µatm CO2) and "extreme" aquaculture conditions (pH 7.1, 3000 µatm CO2). Sensitivity analyses were conducted at 4, 24, and 48 hours post-fertilization (hpf) by focusing on development, survival, and expression of genes related to acute stress response (crhr1, crfr2), stress/repair response (hsp70, hsp90), water and solute transport (aqp1, aqp3), acid-base regulation (nkcc1a, ncc, car15), and inhibitory neurotransmission (GABAAα6b, Gabra1). Results revealed that embryos developing at intermediate pH showed similar survival rates to the control, but egg swelling was impaired, resulting in a reduction in egg size with decreasing pH. Embryos exposed to extreme pH had 0.6-fold decrease in survival at 24 hpf and a 0.3-fold change at 48 compared to the control. These observed effects of acidification were not reflected by changes in expression of any of the here studied genes. On the contrary, differential expression was observed along embryonic development independent of treatment, indicating that the underlying regulating systems are under development and that embryos are limited in their ability to regulate molecular responses to acidification. In conclusion, exposure to predicted end-of-century ocean pCO2 conditions may affect normal development of this species in nature during sensitive early life history stages with limited physiological response capacities, while extreme acidification will negatively influence embryonic survival and development under hatchery conditions.

Thermal bottlenecks in the life cycle define climate vulnerability of fish.

Species' vulnerability to climate change depends on the most temperature-sensitive life stages, but for major animal groups such as fish, life cycle bottlenecks are often not clearly defined. We used observational, experimental, and phylogenetic data to assess stage-specific thermal tolerance metrics for 694 marine and freshwater fish species from all climate zones. Our analysis shows that spawning adults and embryos consistently have narrower tolerance ranges than larvae and nonreproductive adults and are most vulnerable to climate warming. The sequence of stage-specific thermal tolerance corresponds with the oxygen-limitation hypothesis, suggesting a mechanistic link between ontogenetic changes in cardiorespiratory (aerobic) capacity and tolerance to temperature extremes. A logarithmic inverse correlation between the temperature dependence of physiological rates (development and oxygen consumption) and thermal tolerance range is proposed to reflect a fundamental, energetic trade-off in thermal adaptation. Scenario-based climate projections considering the most critical life stages (spawners and embryos) clearly identify the temperature requirements for reproduction as a critical bottleneck in the life cycle of fish. By 2100, depending on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario followed, the percentages of species potentially affected by water temperatures exceeding their tolerance limit for reproduction range from ~10% (SSP 1-1.9) to ~60% (SSP 5-8.5). Efforts to meet ambitious climate targets (SSP 1-1.9) could therefore benefit many fish species and people who depend on healthy fish stocks.

Northern cod species face spawning habitat losses if global warming exceeds 1.5°C.

Rapid climate change in the Northeast Atlantic and Arctic poses a threat to some of the world's largest fish populations. Impacts of warming and acidification may become accessible through mechanism-based risk assessments and projections of future habitat suitability. We show that ocean acidification causes a narrowing of embryonic thermal ranges, which identifies the suitability of spawning habitats as a critical life-history bottleneck for two abundant cod species. Embryonic tolerance ranges linked to climate simulations reveal that ever-increasing CO2 emissions [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5] will deteriorate suitability of present spawning habitat for both Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and Polar cod (Boreogadus saida) by 2100. Moderate warming (RCP4.5) may avert dangerous climate impacts on Atlantic cod but still leaves few spawning areas for the more vulnerable Polar cod, which also loses the benefits of an ice-covered ocean. Emissions following RCP2.6, however, support largely unchanged habitat suitability for both species, suggesting that risks are minimized if warming is held "below 2°C, if not 1.5°C," as pledged by the Paris Agreement.

Impact of Ocean Acidification and Warming on the bioenergetics of developing eggs of Atlantic herring Clupea harengus.

Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) is a benthic spawner, therefore its eggs are prone to encounter different water conditions during embryonic development, with bottom waters often depleted of oxygen and enriched in CO2. Some Atlantic herring spawning grounds are predicted to be highly affected by ongoing Ocean Acidification and Warming with water temperature increasing by up to +3°C and CO2 levels reaching ca. 1000 µatm (RCP 8.5). Although many studies investigated the effects of high levels of CO2 on the embryonic development of Atlantic herring, little is known about the combination of temperature and ecologically relevant levels of CO2. In this study, we investigated the effects of Ocean Acidification and Warming on embryonic metabolic and developmental performance such as mitochondrial function, respiration, hatching success (HS) and growth in Atlantic herring from the Oslo Fjord, one of the spawning grounds predicted to be greatly affected by climate change. Fertilized eggs were incubated under combinations of two PCO2 conditions (400 µatm and 1100 µatm) and three temperatures (6, 10 and 14°C), which correspond to current and end-of-the-century conditions. We analysed HS, oxygen consumption (MO2) and mitochondrial function of embryos as well as larval length at hatch. The capacity of the electron transport system (ETS) increased with temperature, reaching a plateau at 14°C, where the contribution of Complex I to the ETS declined in favour of Complex II. This relative shift was coupled with a dramatic increase in MO2 at 14°C. HS was high under ambient spawning conditions (6-10°C), but decreased at 14°C and hatched larvae at this temperature were smaller. Elevated PCO2 increased larval malformations, indicating sub-lethal effects. These results indicate that energetic limitations due to thermally affected mitochondria and higher energy demand for maintenance occur at the expense of embryonic development and growth.

Forecasting future recruitment success for Atlantic cod in the warming and acidifying Barents Sea.

Productivity of marine fish stocks is known to be affected by environmental and ecological drivers, and global climate change is anticipated to alter recruitment success of many stocks. While the direct effects of environmental drivers on fish early life stage survival can be quantified experimentally, indirect effects in marine ecosystems and the role of adaptation are still highly uncertain. We developed an integrative model for the effects of ocean warming and acidification on the early life stages of Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea, termed SCREI (Simulator of Cod Recruitment under Environmental Influences). Experimental results on temperature and CO2 effects on egg fertilization, egg and larval survival and development times are incorporated. Calibration using empirical time series of egg production, temperature, food and predator abundance reproduces age-0 recruitment over three decades. We project trajectories of recruitment success under different scenarios and quantify confidence limits based on variation in experiments. A publicly accessible web version of the SCREI model can be run under www.oceanchange.uni-bremen.de/;SCREI. Severe reductions in average age-0 recruitment success of Barents Sea cod are projected under uncompensated warming and acidification toward the middle to end of this century. Although high population stochasticity was found, considerable rates of evolutionary adaptation to acidification and shifts in organismal thermal windows would be needed to buffer impacts on recruitment. While increases in food availability may mitigate short-term impacts, an increase in egg production achieved by stock management could provide more long-term safety for cod recruitment success. The SCREI model provides a novel integration of multiple driver effects in different life stages and enables an estimation of uncertainty associated with interindividual and ecological variation. The model thus helps to advance toward an improved empirical foundation for quantifying climate change impacts on marine fish recruitment, relevant for ecosystem-based assessments of marine systems under climate change.

Effects of ocean acidification increase embryonic sensitivity to thermal extremes in Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua.

Thermal tolerance windows serve as a powerful tool for estimating the vulnerability of marine species and their life stages to increasing temperature means and extremes. However, it remains uncertain to which extent additional drivers, such as ocean acidification, modify organismal responses to temperature. This study investigated the effects of CO2 -driven ocean acidification on embryonic thermal sensitivity and performance in Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, from the Kattegat. Fertilized eggs were exposed to factorial combinations of two PCO2 conditions (400 µatm vs. 1100 µatm) and five temperature treatments (0, 3, 6, 9 and 12 °C), which allow identifying both lower and upper thermal tolerance thresholds. We quantified hatching success, oxygen consumption (MO2 ) and mitochondrial functioning of embryos as well as larval morphometrics at hatch and the abundance of acid-base-relevant ionocytes on the yolk sac epithelium of newly hatched larvae. Hatching success was high under ambient spawning conditions (3-6 °C), but decreased towards both cold and warm temperature extremes. Elevated PCO2 caused a significant decrease in hatching success, particularly at cold (3 and 0 °C) and warm (12 °C) temperatures. Warming imposed limitations to MO2 and mitochondrial capacities. Elevated PCO2 stimulated MO2 at cold and intermediate temperatures, but exacerbated warming-induced constraints on MO2 , indicating a synergistic interaction with temperature. Mitochondrial functioning was not affected by PCO2 . Increased MO2 in response to elevated PCO2 was paralleled by reduced larval size at hatch. Finally, ionocyte abundance decreased with increasing temperature, but did not differ between PCO2 treatments. Our results demonstrate increased thermal sensitivity of cod embryos under future PCO2 conditions and suggest that acclimation to elevated PCO2 requires reallocation of limited resources at the expense of embryonic growth. We conclude that ocean acidification constrains the thermal performance window of embryos, which has important implication for the susceptibility of cod to projected climate change.