Validating a forced-choice method for eliciting quality-of-reasoning judgments.

In this paper we investigate the criterion validity of forced-choice comparisons of the quality of written arguments with normative solutions. Across two studies, novices and experts assessing quality of reasoning through a forced-choice design were both able to choose arguments supporting more accurate solutions-62.2% (SE = 1%) of the time for novices and 74.4% (SE = 1%) for experts-and arguments produced by larger teams-up to 82% of the time for novices and 85% for experts-with high inter-rater reliability, namely 70.58% (95% CI = 1.18) agreement for novices and 80.98% (95% CI = 2.26) for experts. We also explored two methods for increasing efficiency. We found that the number of comparative judgments needed could be substantially reduced with little accuracy loss by leveraging transitivity and producing quality-of-reasoning assessments using an AVL tree method. Moreover, a regression model trained to predict scores based on automatically derived linguistic features of participants' judgments achieved a high correlation with the objective accuracy scores of the arguments in our dataset. Despite the inherent subjectivity involved in evaluating differing quality of reasoning, the forced-choice paradigm allows even novice raters to perform beyond chance and can provide a valid, reliable, and efficient method for producing quality-of-reasoning assessments at scale.

No frills: Simple regularities in language can go a long way in the development of word knowledge.

Recent years have seen a flourishing of Natural Language Processing models that can mimic many aspects of human language fluency. These models harness a simple, decades-old idea: It is possible to learn a lot about word meanings just from exposure to language, because words similar in meaning are used in language in similar ways. The successes of these models raise the intriguing possibility that exposure to word use in language also shapes the word knowledge that children amass during development. However, this possibility is strongly challenged by the fact that models use language input and learning mechanisms that may be unavailable to children. Across three studies, we found that unrealistically complex input and learning mechanisms are unnecessary. Instead, simple regularities of word use in children's language input that they have the capacity to learn can foster knowledge about word meanings. Thus, exposure to language may play a simple but powerful role in children's growing word knowledge. A video abstract of this article can be viewed at https://youtu.be/dT83dmMffnM. RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS: Natural Language Processing (NLP) models can learn that words are similar in meaning from higher-order statistical regularities of word use. Unlike NLP models, infants and children may primarily learn only simple co-occurrences between words. We show that infants' and children's language input is rich in simple co-occurrence that can support learning similarities in meaning between words. We find that simple co-occurrences can explain infants' and children's knowledge that words are similar in meaning.

Examining dependencies among different time scales in episodic memory - an experience sampling study.

We re-examined whether different time scales such as week, day of week, and hour of day are independently used during memory retrieval as has been previously argued (i.e., independence of scales). To overcome the limitations of previous studies, we used experience sampling technology to obtain test stimuli that have higher ecological validity. We also used pointwise mutual information to directly calculate the degree of dependency between time scales in a formal way. Participants were provided with a smartphone and were asked to wear it around their neck for two weeks, which was equipped with an app that automatically collected time, images, GPS, audio and accelerometry. After a one-week retention interval, participants were presented with an image that was captured during their data collection phase, and were tested on their memory of when the event happened (i.e., week, day of week, and hour). We find that, in contrast to previous arguments, memories of different time scales were not retrieved independently. Moreover, through rendering recurrence plots of the images that the participants collected, we provide evidence the dependency may have originated from the repetitive events that the participants encountered in their daily life.

Sources of Interference in Memory Across Development.

Episodic memory involves remembering not only what happened but also where and when the event happened. This multicomponent nature introduces different sources of interference that stem from previous experience. However, it is unclear how the contributions of these sources change across development and what might cause the changes. To address these questions, we tested 4- to 5-year-olds (n = 103), 7- to 8-year-olds (n = 82), and adults (n = 70) using item- and source-recognition memory tasks with various manipulations (i.e., list length, list strength, word frequency), and we decomposed sources of interference using a computational model. We found that interference stemming from other items on the study list rapidly decreased with development, whereas interference from preexperimental contexts gradually decreased but remained the major source of interference. The model further quantified these changes, indicating that the ability to discriminate items undergoes rapid development, whereas the ability to discriminate contexts undergoes protracted development. These results elucidate fundamental aspects of memory development.

Management of epistaxis in hereditary haemorrhagic telangiectasia (HHT) patients using pulsed dye laser and the effect of withholding treatment during the COVID pandemic.

Using a patient survey, pulsed dye laser (PDL) treatment of epistaxis for hereditary haemorrhagic telangiectasia (HHT) patients was evaluated after initial referral. Subsequently, due to the COVID pandemic, a natural experimental set-up allowed assessment of an enforced withdrawal of treatment. A total of 34 subjects were identified as undergoing PDL for HHT-related epistaxis. They were surveyed to look at the effectiveness of PDL treatment after initial referral and at the effect of delay to treatment during COVID on epistaxis and the associated quality of life. The survey also examined the comparison to other available treatments. Retrospective pre-COVID Epistaxis Severity Scores (ESS) were compared to post-COVID data to assess the effect of treatment withdrawal. The patients were then followed up after resumption of their treatment to assess the ensuing change in ESS. After initial referral, frequency and severity of epistaxis decreased. Fifty-six percent of patients experienced several bleeds per day before treatment, compared to 12% after. 88% of patients had episodes of epistaxis longer than 5 min, which was halved to 44% after treatment. Average ESS pre-COVID was 4.42 compared to 5.43 post-COVID delay, with a significant statistical difference (p = 0.02). On resumption of treatment, average ESS reduced to below pre-COVID levels at 4.39 after only 2 sessions. Seventy-six percent of patients found that withdrawal of PDL during COVID diminished their quality of life. PDL treatment of nasal mucosal telangiectasia reduces the frequency and duration of epistaxis. The ESS is reduced following treatment with PDL and quality of life subjectively improved.

Papers Please - Predictive Factors of National and International Attitudes Toward Immunity and Vaccination Passports: Online Representative Surveys.

BACKGROUND: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries are introducing digital passports that allow citizens to return to normal activities if they were previously infected with (immunity passport) or vaccinated against (vaccination passport) SARS-CoV-2. To be effective, policy decision-makers must know whether these passports will be widely accepted by the public and under what conditions. This study focuses attention on immunity passports, as these may prove useful in countries both with and without an existing COVID-19 vaccination program; however, our general findings also extend to vaccination passports. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess attitudes toward the introduction of immunity passports in six countries, and determine what social, personal, and contextual factors predicted their support. METHODS: We collected 13,678 participants through online representative sampling across six countries-Australia, Japan, Taiwan, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom-during April to May of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, and assessed attitudes and support for the introduction of immunity passports. RESULTS: Immunity passport support was moderate to low, being the highest in Germany (775/1507 participants, 51.43%) and the United Kingdom (759/1484, 51.15%); followed by Taiwan (2841/5989, 47.44%), Australia (963/2086, 46.16%), and Spain (693/1491, 46.48%); and was the lowest in Japan (241/1081, 22.94%). Bayesian generalized linear mixed effects modeling was used to assess predictive factors for immunity passport support across countries. International results showed neoliberal worldviews (odds ratio [OR] 1.17, 95% CI 1.13-1.22), personal concern (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.16), perceived virus severity (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01-1.14), the fairness of immunity passports (OR 2.51, 95% CI 2.36-2.66), liking immunity passports (OR 2.77, 95% CI 2.61-2.94), and a willingness to become infected to gain an immunity passport (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.51-1.68) were all predictive factors of immunity passport support. By contrast, gender (woman; OR 0.9, 95% CI 0.82-0.98), immunity passport concern (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.57-0.65), and risk of harm to society (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.67-0.76) predicted a decrease in support for immunity passports. Minor differences in predictive factors were found between countries and results were modeled separately to provide national accounts of these data. CONCLUSIONS: Our research suggests that support for immunity passports is predicted by the personal benefits and societal risks they confer. These findings generalized across six countries and may also prove informative for the introduction of vaccination passports, helping policymakers to introduce effective COVID-19 passport policies in these six countries and around the world.

High Acceptance of COVID-19 Tracing Technologies in Taiwan: A Nationally Representative Survey Analysis.

Taiwan has been a world leader in controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently, the Taiwan Government launched its COVID-19 tracing app, 'Taiwan Social Distancing App'; however, the effectiveness of this tracing app depends on its acceptance and uptake among the general population. We measured the acceptance of three hypothetical tracing technologies (telecommunication network tracing, a government app, and the Apple and Google Bluetooth exposure notification system) in four nationally representative Taiwanese samples. Using Bayesian methods, we found a high acceptance of all three tracking technologies, with acceptance increasing with the inclusion of additional privacy measures. Modeling revealed that acceptance increased with the perceived technology benefits, trust in the providers' intent, data security and privacy measures, the level of ongoing control, and one's level of education. Acceptance decreased with data sensitivity perceptions and a perceived low policy compliance by others among the general public. We consider the policy implications of these results for Taiwan during the COVID-19 pandemic and in the future.

The Fallacy of an Airtight Alibi: Understanding Human Memory for "Where" Using Experience Sampling.

A primary challenge for alibi-generation research is establishing the ground truth of real-world events of interest. In the current study, we used a smartphone app to record data on adult participants (N = 51) for a month prior to a memory test. The app captured accelerometry data, GPS locations, and audio environments every 10 min. After a week-long retention interval, we asked participants to identify where they were at a given time from among four alternatives. Participants were incorrect 36% of the time. Furthermore, our forced-choice procedure allowed us to conduct a conditional logit analysis to assess the different aspects of the events that the participants experienced and their relative importance to the decision process. We found strong evidence that participants confuse days across weeks. In addition, people often confused weeks in general and also hours across days. Similarity of location induced more errors than similarity of audio environments or movement types.

Paths to social licence for tracking-data analytics in university research and services.

While tracking-data analytics can be a goldmine for institutions and companies, the inherent privacy concerns also form a legal, ethical and social minefield. We present a study that seeks to understand the extent and circumstances under which tracking-data analytics is undertaken with social licence-that is, with broad community acceptance beyond formal compliance with legal requirements. Taking a University campus environment as a case, we enquire about the social licence for Wi-Fi-based tracking-data analytics. Staff and student participants answered a questionnaire presenting hypothetical scenarios involving Wi-Fi tracking for university research and services. Our results present a Bayesian logistic mixed-effects regression of acceptability judgements as a function of participant ratings on 11 privacy dimensions. Results show widespread acceptance of tracking-data analytics on campus and suggest that trust, individual benefit, data sensitivity, risk of harm and institutional respect for privacy are the most predictive factors determining this acceptance judgement.

Young Adults View Smartphone Tracking Technologies for COVID-19 as Acceptable: The Case of Taiwan.

Taiwan has been successful in controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 pandemic; however, without a vaccine the threat of a second outbreak remains. Young adults who show few to no symptoms when infected have been identified in many countries as driving the virus' spread through unidentifiable community transmission. Mobile tracking technologies register nearby contacts of a user and notifies them if one later tests positive to the virus, potentially solving this issue; however, the effectiveness of these technologies depends on their acceptance by the public. The current study assessed attitudes towards three tracking technologies (telecommunication network tracking, a government app, and Apple and Google's Bluetooth exposure notification system) among four samples of young Taiwanese adults (aged 25 years or younger). Using Bayesian methods, we find high acceptance for all three tracking technologies (>75%), with acceptance for each technology surpassing 90% if additional privacy measures were included. We consider the policy implications of these results for Taiwan and similar cultures.

The acceptability and uptake of smartphone tracking for COVID-19 in Australia.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many Governments are instituting mobile tracking technologies to perform rapid contact tracing. However, these technologies are only effective if the public is willing to use them, implying that their perceived public health benefits must outweigh personal concerns over privacy and security. The Australian federal government recently launched the 'COVIDSafe' app, designed to anonymously register nearby contacts. If a contact later identifies as infected with COVID-19, health department officials can rapidly followup with their registered contacts to stop the virus' spread. The current study assessed attitudes towards three tracking technologies (telecommunication network tracking, a government app, and Apple and Google's Bluetooth exposure notification system) in two representative samples of the Australian public prior to the launch of COVIDSafe. We compared these attitudes to usage of the COVIDSafe app after its launch in a further two representative samples of the Australian public. Using Bayesian methods, we find widespread acceptance for all tracking technologies, however, observe a large intention-behaviour gap between people's stated attitudes and actual uptake of the COVIDSafe app. We consider the policy implications of these results for Australia and the world at large.

Public acceptance of privacy-encroaching policies to address the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom.

The nature of the COVID-19 pandemic may require governments to use privacy-encroaching technologies to help contain its spread. One technology involves co-location tracking through mobile Wi-Fi, GPS, and Bluetooth to permit health agencies to monitor people's contact with each other, thereby triggering targeted social-distancing when a person turns out to be infected. The effectiveness of tracking relies on the willingness of the population to support such privacy encroaching measures. We report the results of two large surveys in the United Kingdom, conducted during the peak of the pandemic, that probe people's attitudes towards various tracking technologies. The results show that by and large there is widespread acceptance for co-location tracking. Acceptance increases when the measures are explicitly time-limited and come with opt-out clauses or other assurances of privacy. Another possible future technology to control the pandemic involves "immunity passports", which could be issued to people who carry antibodies for the COVID-19 virus, potentially implying that they are immune and therefore unable to spread the virus to other people. Immunity passports have been considered as a potential future step to manage the pandemic. We probe people's attitudes towards immunity passports and find considerable support overall, although around 20% of the public strongly oppose passports.

Examining three-way binding as a constraint on statistical learning.

Models of statistical learning do not place constraints on the complexity of the memory structure that is formed during statistical learning, while empirical studies using the statistical learning task have only examined the formation of simple memory structures (e.g., two-way binding). On the contrary, the memory literature, using explicit memory tasks, has shown that people are able to form memory structures of different complexities and that more complex memory structures (e.g., three-way binding) are usually more difficult to form. We examined whether complex memory structures such as three-way bindings can be implicitly formed through statistical learning by utilizing manipulations that have been used in the paired-associate learning paradigm (e.g., AB/ABr condition). Through three experiments, we show that while simple two-way binding structures can be formed implicitly, three-way bindings can only be formed with explicit instructions. The results indicate that explicit attention may be a necessary component in forming three-way memory structures and suggest that existing models should place constraints on the representational structures that can be formed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

What do cows drink? A systems factorial technology account of processing architecture in memory intersection problems.

It has long been known that cues can be used to improve performance on memory recall tasks. There is evidence to suggest additional cues provide further benefit, presumably by narrowing the search space. Problems that require integration of two or more cues, alternately referred to as memory intersections or multiply constrained memory problems, could be approached using several strategies, namely serial or parallel consideration of cues. The type of strategy implicated is essential information for the development of theories of memory, yet evidence to date has been inconclusive. Using a novel application of the powerful Systems Factorial Technology (Townsend & Nozawa, 1995) we find strong evidence that participants use two cues in parallel in free recall tasks - a finding that contradicts two recent publications in this area. We then provide evidence from a related recognition task showing that while most participants also use a parallel strategy in that paradigm, a reliable subset of participants used a serial strategy. Our findings suggest a theoretically meaningful distinction between participants strategies in recall and recognition based intersection memory tasks, and also highlight the importance of tightly controlled methodological and analytic frameworks to overcome issues of serial/parallel model mimicry.

Dual processes in memory: Evidence from memory of time-of-occurrence of events.

Bastin et al. present a framework that draws heavily on existing ideas of dual processes in memory in order to make predictions about memory deficits in clinical populations. It has been difficult to find behavioral evidence for multiple memory processes but we offer some evidence for dual processes in a related domain: memory for the time-of-occurrence of events.

Privacy versus open science.

Pervasive internet and sensor technologies promise to revolutionize psychological science. However, the data collected using these technologies are often very personal-indeed, the value of the data is often directly related to how personal they are. At the same time, driven by the replication crisis, there is a sustained push to publish data to open repositories. These movements are in fundamental conflict. In this article, we propose a way to navigate this issue. We argue that there are significant advantages to be gained by ceding the ownership of data to the participants who generate the data. We then provide desiderata for a privacy-preserving platform. In particular, we suggest that researchers should use an interface to perform experiments and run analyses, rather than observing the stimuli themselves. We argue that this method not only improves privacy but will also encourage greater compliance with good research practices than is possible through open repositories.

A system for collecting and analyzing experience-sampling data.

Online and sensor technologies promise to transform many areas of psychological enquiry. However, collecting and analyzing such data are challenging. In this article, we introduce the unforgettable.me experience-sampling platform. Unforgettable.me includes an app that can collect image, Global Positioning System, accelerometry, and audio data in a continuous fashion and upload the data to a server. The data are then automatically augmented by using online databases to identify the address, type of location, and weather conditions, as well as provide street view imagery. In addition, machine-learning classifiers are run to identify aspects of the audio data such as voice and traffic. The augmented data are available to participants in the form of a keyword search interface, as well as via several visualization mechanisms. In addition, Unforgettable Research Services partners with If This Then That (IFTTT), and so can accumulate data from any of over 600 sources, including social media, wearables, and other devices. Through IFTTT, buttons can be added as icons to smartphones to allow participants to register mood conveniently, as well as behaviors and physiological states such as happiness, microaggressions, or illness. Furthermore, unforgettable.me incorporates a mechanism that allows researchers to run experiments and analyze data within an authenticated environment without viewing users' private data.

The experience of vivid autobiographical reminiscence is supported by subjective content representations in the precuneus.

The human posteromedial cortex, which includes core regions of the default mode network (DMN), is thought to play an important role in episodic memory. However, the nature and functional role of representations in these brain regions remain unspecified. Nine participants (all female) wore smartphone devices to record episodes from their daily lives for multiple weeks, each night indicating the personally-salient attributes of each episode. Participants then relived their experiences in an fMRI scanner cued by images from their own lives. Representational Similarity Analysis revealed a broad network, including parts of the DMN, that represented personal semantics during autobiographical reminiscence. Within this network, activity in the right precuneus reflected more detailed representations of subjective contents during vivid relative to non-vivid, recollection. Our results suggest a more specific mechanism underlying the phenomenology of vivid autobiographical reminiscence, supported by rich subjective content representations in the precuneus, a hub of the DMN previously implicated in metacognitive evaluations during memory retrieval.

Modeling the dynamics of recognition memory testing with an integrated model of retrieval and decision making.

A robust finding in recognition memory is that performance declines monotonically across test trials. Despite the prevalence of this decline, there is a lack of consensus on the mechanism responsible. Three hypotheses have been put forward: (1) interference is caused by learning of test items (2) the test items cause a shift in the context representation used to cue memory and (3) participants change their speed-accuracy thresholds through the course of testing. We implemented all three possibilities in a combined model of recognition memory and decision making, which inherits the memory retrieval elements of the Osth and Dennis (2015) model and uses the diffusion decision model (DDM: Ratcliff, 1978) to generate choice and response times. We applied the model to four datasets that represent three challenges, the findings that: (1) the number of test items plays a larger role in determining performance than the number of studied items, (2) performance decreases less for strong items than weak items in pure lists but not in mixed lists, and (3) lexical decision trials interspersed between recognition test trials do not increase the rate at which performance declines. Analysis of the model's parameter estimates suggests that item interference plays a weak role in explaining the effects of recognition testing, while context drift plays a very large role. These results are consistent with prior work showing a weak role for item noise in recognition memory and that retrieval is a strong cause of context change in episodic memory.

An associative account of the development of word learning.

Word learning is a notoriously difficult induction problem because meaning is underdetermined by positive examples. How do children solve this problem? Some have argued that word learning is achieved by means of inference: young word learners rely on a number of assumptions that reduce the overall hypothesis space by favoring some meanings over others. However, these approaches have difficulty explaining how words are learned from conversations or text, without pointing or explicit instruction. In this research, we propose an associative mechanism that can account for such learning. In a series of experiments, 4-year-olds and adults were presented with sets of words that included a single nonsense word (e.g. dax). Some lists were taxonomic (i.,e., all items were members of a given category), some were associative (i.e., all items were associates of a given category, but not members), and some were mixed. Participants were asked to indicate whether the nonsense word was an animal or an artifact. Adults exhibited evidence of learning when lists consisted of either associatively or taxonomically related items. In contrast, children exhibited evidence of word learning only when lists consisted of associatively related items. These results present challenges to several extant models of word learning, and a new model based on the distinction between syntagmatic and paradigmatic associations is proposed.