Changes in emergency department use in British Columbia, Canada, during the first 3 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown reductions in the volume of emergency department visits early in the COVID-19 pandemic, but few have evaluated the pandemic's impact over time or stratified analyses by reason for visits. We aimed to quantify such changes in British Columbia, Canada, cumulatively and during prominent nadirs, and by reason for visit, age and acuity. METHODS: We included data from the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System for 30 emergency departments across BC from January 2016 to December 2022. We fitted generalized additive models, accounting for seasonal and annual trends, to the monthly number of visits to estimate changes throughout the pandemic, compared with the expected number of visits in the absence of the pandemic. We determined absolute and relative differences at various times during the study period, and cumulatively since the start of the pandemic until the overall volume of emergency department visits returned to expected levels. RESULTS: Over the first 16 months of the pandemic, the volume of emergency department visits was reduced by about 322 300 visits, or 15% (95% confidence interval 12%-18%), compared with the expected volume. A sharp drop in pediatric visits accounted for nearly one-third of the reduction. The timing of the return to baseline volume of visits differed by subgroup. The largest and most sustained decreases were in respiratory-related emergency department visits, visits among children, visits among oldest adults and non-urgent visits. Later in the pandemic, we observed increased volumes of highest-urgency visits, visits among children and visits related to ear, nose and throat. INTERPRETATION: We have extended evidence that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated mitigation strategies on emergency department visits in Canada was substantial. Both our findings and methods are relevant in public health surveillance and capacity planning for emergency departments in pandemic and nonpandemic times.

Meta-analysis of multi-jurisdictional health administrative data from distributed networks approximated individual-level multivariable regression.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Compare meta-analysis in a distributed network to individual-level analysis for assessment of time trends of health services utilization with health administrative data. METHODS: We used administrative data from Ontario, Canada to analyze temporal trends in pediatric inflammatory bowel disease health services use. Beta coefficients were obtained using negative binomial, logistic, and Cox proportional hazards regression models. We replicated the individual-level analyses in each Ontario Local Health Integration Network (LHIN), then meta-analyzed aggregate trends using both fixed and random effects meta-analysis. We compared the pooled estimates of effect with individual-level analysis. RESULTS: Beta coefficients, summary effect estimates, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from the meta-analysis of data from distributed networks were not different than those from individual-level data, regardless of meta-analytic approach used. For example, the 5-year odds ratio of colectomy in ulcerative colitis using individual-level analysis was 0.978 (95% CI 0.950 to 1.007) compared to distributed network fixed effects meta-analysis: 0.982 (95% CI 0.950 to 1.015), and random effects meta-analysis: 0.982 (95% CI 0.950 to 1.015). CONCLUSION: Meta-analysis of multi-jurisdictional estimates were similar to estimates obtained from individual-level analysis. This method is a valid alternative for analysis of multi-jurisdictional data when individual-level data cannot be shared.

Shifting Health Care Use from Hospitalisations and Surgeries to Outpatient Visits in Children with Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Population-based Cohort Study from Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Modern, specialised care for children with inflammatory bowel disease [IBD] may have resulted in changes in health services use. We report trends over time in health services utilisation and surgery for children with IBD and children without IBD. METHODS: Children aged <18 years, diagnosed with IBD between 1994 and 2013 [n = 5518] and followed until 2015 in Ontario, Canada, were identified from health administrative data and matched to children without IBD on age, sex, rural/urban household, and income [n = 26,677]. We report the annual percentage change [APC] with 95% confidence intervals [CI] in the rate of outpatient visits, emergency department [ED] visits, and hospitalisations, using negative binomial regression for events within 5 years from the diagnosis/index date. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to report APC in hazards of intestinal resection [Crohn's disease; CD] and colectomy [ulcerative colitis; UC]. RESULTS: IBD-specific hospitalisation rates decreased by 2.5% [95% CI 1.8-3.2%] annually, and all-cause hospitalisation rates in children without IBD decreased by 4.3% [95% CI 3.5-5.1%] annually. Intestinal resection risk in CD decreased by 6.0% [95% CI 4.6-7.3%] annually and colectomy risk in UC decreased by 3.0% [95% CI 0.7-5.2%] annually. In contrast, IBD-specific outpatient visit rates increased after 2005 by 4.0% [95% CI 3.1-4.9%] annually. Similar trends in outpatient visits were not observed in children without IBD. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalisations and surgeries decreased over time while outpatient visits increased after 2005. Decreasing hospitalisations were mirrored in children without IBD, likely resulting from a combination of changes in disease management and health system factors.