Predicting pathological response after radio-chemotherapy for rectal cancer: Impact of late oxaliplatin administration.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: A previously introduced index based on early tumor (GTV) regression (ERITCP) during neo-adjuvant radio-chemotherapy of rectal cancer was used to investigate the impact of changes of oxaliplatin (OXA) delivery on the prediction of pathological complete response (pCR) and residual vital cell (RVC) fraction. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ninety-five patients were treated following an adaptive protocol (41.4 Gy/18fr; 2.3 Gy/fr) delivering a simultaneous integrated boost to the residual GTV in the last 6 fractions (3 Gy/fr). OXA was delivered on days -14, 0 (start of RT) and +14. Based on the oncologist's preference, the last OXA cycle was not administered for 36 patients. MRIs taken at planning and at mid-RT were used to calculate ERITCP, before the timing of the third OXA cycle. The impact of OXA cycles and the discriminative power of ERITCP in predicting the pathological response (pCR, RVC >10%) were quantified. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to assess predictive models. RESULTS: Two patients with complete clinical remission refused surgery (cCR_ww). Complete post-surgical data of 54/59 and 35/36 patients were available for the two groups (3 vs 2 OXA cycles). pCR/pCR + cCR_ww/RVC >10% rates were 31.5/33.9/27.8% and 14.3/14.3/54.3% respectively (p = 0.01-0.07). ERITCP showed high negative predictive value (85-91%) for all end-points. The logistic predictive model for pCR included ERITCP (OR: 0.93) and OXA cycles (OR: 3.5), with AUC = 0.78. Internal validation through bootstrap confirmed the robustness of the results. CONCLUSIONS: Late omission of OXA dramatically reduced the pathological response. OXA delivery after the assessment of ERITCP significantly influenced the relationship between ERITCP and pCR.

Accurate outcome prediction after neo-adjuvant radio-chemotherapy for rectal cancer based on a TCP-based early regression index.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: An early tumor regression index (ERITCP) was previously introduced and found to predict pathological response after neo-adjuvant radio-chemotherapy of rectal cancer. ERITCP was tested as a potential biomarker in predicting long-term disease-free survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data of 65 patients treated with an early regression-guided adaptive boosting technique (ART) were available. Overall, loco-regional relapse-free and distant metastasis-free survival (OS, LRFS, DMFS) were considered. Patients received 41.4 Gy in 18 fractions (2.3 Gy/fr), including ART concomitant boost on the residual GTV during the last 6 fractions (3 Gy/fr, Dmean: 45.6 Gy). Chemotherapy included oxaliplatin and 5-fluorouracil (5-FU). T2-weighted MRI taken before (MRIpre) and at half therapy (MRIhalf) were available and GTVs were contoured (Vpre, Vhalf). The parameter ERITCP = -ln[(1 - (Vhalf/Vpre))Vpre] was calculated for all patients. Cox regression models were assessed considering several clinical and histological variables. Cox models not including/including ERITCP (CONV_model and REGR_model respectively) were assessed and their discriminative power compared. RESULTS: At a median follow-up of 47 months, OS, LRFS and DMFS were 94%, 95% and 78%. Due to too few events, multivariable analyses focused on DMFS: the resulting CONV_model included pathological complete remission or clinical complete remission followed by surgery refusal (HR: 0.15, p = 0.07) and 5-FU dose >90% (HR: 0.29, p = 0.03) as best predictors, with AUC = 0.75. REGR_model included ERITCP (HR: 1.019, p < 0.0001) and 5-FU dose >90% (HR: 0.18, p = 0.005); AUC was 0.86, significantly higher than CONV_model (p = 0.05). Stratifying patients according to the best cut-off value for ERITCP and to 5-FU dose (> vs <90%) resulted in 47-month DMFS equal to 100%/69%/0% for patients with two/one/zero positive factors respectively (p = 0.0002). ERITCP was also the only variable significantly associated to OS (p = 0.01) and LRFS (p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: ERITCP predicts long-term DMFS after radio-chemotherapy for rectal cancer: an independent impact of the 5-FU dose was also found. This result represents a first step toward application of ERITCP in treatment personalization: additional confirmation on independent cohorts is warranted.

A TCP-based early regression index predicts the pathological response in neo-adjuvant radio-chemotherapy of rectal cancer.

PURPOSE: Introducing a radiobiological index based on early tumor regression during neo-adjuvant radio-chemotherapy (RCT, including oxaliplatin) of rectal adenocarcinoma and testing its discriminative power in predicting the tumor response. METHODS: Seventy-four patients were treated with Helical Tomotherapy following an adaptive (ART) protocol (41.4 Gy/18 fr, 2.3 Gy/fr) delivering a simultaneous integrated boost on the residual tumor in the last 6 fractions up to 45.6 Gy. T2-weighted MRI were taken before (MRIpre) and at mid (MRImid) therapy and the corresponding tumor volumes were considered (Vpre,Vmid). The "Early Regression Index" [Formula: see text] was introduced and its discriminative power was assessed in terms of AUC, sensitivity/specificity, positive/negative predictive value (PPV/NPV). Two end-points were considered: (a) pathological complete response (pCR) or clinical complete response followed by watch-and-wait, (cCR); (b) limited response (residual vital cells (RVC) in the surgical specimen >10%). RESULTS: Complete data were available for 65 patients: pCR, cCR and RVC >10% were 20, 2 and 19 respectively. The discriminative power of ERITCP was moderately high (AUC = 0.81/0.75 for /pCRorcCR/RVC >10% respectively, p < 0.0005). ERITCP was highly sensitive (86-89%) with very high NPV (90-94%). The discriminative power of ERITCP was confirmed on a subgroup of 44/65 patients when considering tumor volumes delineated by a skilled radiologist. CONCLUSION: A radiobiologically consistent index based on early regression showed high performances in predicting the pathological response after neo-adjuvant RCT for rectal cancer with relevant potentialities for ART/treatment customization.