National health examination surveys; a source of critical data.

The aim of this paper is to contribute technical arguments to the debate about the importance of health examination surveys and their continued use during the post-pandemic health financing crisis, and in the context of a technological innovation boom that offers new ways of collecting and analysing individual health data (e.g. artificial intelligence). Technical considerations demonstrate that health examination surveys make an irreplaceable contribution to the local availability of primary health data that can be used in a range of further studies (e.g. normative, burden-of-disease, care cascade, cost and policy impact studies) essential for informing several phases of the health planning cycle (e.g. surveillance, prioritization, resource mobilization and policy development). Examples of the use of health examination survey data in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region (i.e. Finland, Italy, Malta and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland) and the WHO Region of the Americas (i.e. Chile, Mexico, Peru and the United States of America) are presented, and reasons why health provider-led data cannot replace health examination survey data are discussed (e.g. underestimation of morbidity and susceptibility to bias). In addition, the importance of having nationally representative random samples of the general population is highlighted and we argue that health examination surveys make a critical contribution to external quality control for a country's health system by increasing the transparency and accountability of health spending. Finally, we consider future technological advances that can improve survey fieldwork and suggest ways of ensuring health examination surveys are sustainable in low-resource settings.

Cet article a pour objet d'apporter des arguments techniques au débat sur l'importance des enquêtes de santé par examen et sur leur utilisation continue pendant la crise post-pandémique du financement de la santé et dans le contexte d'un essor de l'innovation technologique qui offre de nouvelles façons de collecter et d'analyser les données individuelles sur la santé (comme l'intelligence artificielle). Les considérations techniques démontrent que les enquêtes de santé par examen apportent une contribution irremplaçable à la disponibilité locale de données de santé primaires qui peuvent servir dans une série d'études complémentaires (telles que des études normatives, sur la charge de morbidité, la cascade des soins, les coûts et l'impact des politiques). Ces études sont essentielles pour renseigner plusieurs phases du cycle de planification sanitaire (par exemple: surveillance, priorisation, mobilisation de ressources et élaboration de politiques). Cet article présente des exemples d'utilisation des données d'enquêtes de santé par examen dans la Région OMS de l'Europe (Finlande, Italie, Malte et Royaume-Uni de Grande-Bretagne et d'Irlande du Nord) et dans la Région OMS des Amériques (Chili, États-Unis d'Amérique, Mexique et Pérou) et aborde les raisons pour lesquelles les données fournies par les prestataires de soins de santé ne peuvent pas remplacer les données d'enquêtes de santé par examen (par exemple la sous-estimation de la morbidité et la vulnérabilité aux biais). En outre, il soulignet l'importance de disposer d'échantillons aléatoires représentatifs de la population générale au niveau national, et nous soutenons que les enquêtes de santé par examen apportent une contribution essentielle au contrôle externe de la qualité du système de santé d'un pays en renforçant la transparence des dépenses de santé et l'obligation de rendre des comptes à leur sujet. Enfin, nous envisageons les futures avancées technologiques susceptibles d'améliorer le travail d'enquête sur le terrain et suggérons des moyens d'assurer la viabilité des enquêtes de santé par examen dans les environnements à faibles ressources.

El objetivo de este artículo es aportar argumentos técnicos al debate sobre la importancia de las encuestas de salud y su uso continuado durante la crisis de financiación sanitaria pospandémica y en el contexto de un auge de la innovación tecnológica que ofrece nuevas formas de recopilar y analizar datos sanitarios individuales (por ejemplo, la inteligencia artificial). Las consideraciones técnicas demuestran que las encuestas de salud contribuyen de manera insustituible a la disponibilidad local de datos sanitarios primarios que pueden utilizarse en toda una serie de estudios posteriores (por ejemplo, estudios normativos, de carga de morbilidad, de cascada asistencial, de costes y de impacto de las políticas) esenciales para fundamentar varias fases del ciclo de planificación sanitaria (por ejemplo, vigilancia, establecimiento de prioridades, movilización de recursos y elaboración de políticas). Se presentan ejemplos del uso de los datos de las encuestas de salud en la Región Europea de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (Finlandia, Italia, Malta y el Reino Unido de Gran Bretaña e Irlanda del Norte) y en la Región de las Américas de la OMS (Chile, Estados Unidos de América, México y Perú) y se analizan las razones por las que los datos obtenidos por los proveedores sanitarios no pueden sustituir a los de las encuestas de salud (por ejemplo, la subestimación de la morbilidad y la posibilidad de sesgo). Además, se destaca la importancia de contar con muestras aleatorias representativas de la población general a escala nacional y se argumenta que las encuestas de salud contribuyen de forma decisiva al control de calidad externo del sistema sanitario de un país, al aumentar la transparencia y la rendición de cuentas del gasto sanitario. Por último, se examinan los futuros avances tecnológicos que pueden mejorar el trabajo de campo de las encuestas y se sugieren métodos para garantizar que las encuestas de salud sean sostenibles en entornos con pocos recursos.

Impact of Lipoprotein(a) Level on Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol- or Apolipoprotein B-Related Risk of Coronary Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND: Conventional low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) quantification includes cholesterol attributable to lipoprotein(a) (Lp(a)-C) due to their overlapping densities. OBJECTIVES: The purposes of this study were to compare the association between LDL-C and LDL-C corrected for Lp(a)-C (LDLLp(a)corr) with incident coronary heart disease (CHD) in the general population and to investigate whether concomitant Lp(a) values influence the association of LDL-C or apolipoprotein B (apoB) with coronary events. METHODS: Among 68,748 CHD-free subjects at baseline LDLLp(a)corr was calculated as "LDL-C-Lp(a)-C," where Lp(a)-C was 30% or 17.3% of total Lp(a) mass. Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted models were applied for the association between the outcome incident CHD and: 1) LDL-C and LDLLp(a)corr in the total sample; and 2) LDL-C and apoB after stratification by Lp(a) mass (≥/<90th percentile). RESULTS: Similar risk estimates for incident CHD were found for LDL-C and LDL-CLp(a)corr30 or LDL-CLp(a)corr17.3 (subdistribution HR with 95% CI) were 2.73 (95% CI: 2.34-3.20) vs 2.51 (95% CI: 2.15-2.93) vs 2.64 (95% CI: 2.26-3.10), respectively (top vs bottom fifth; fully adjusted models). Categorization by Lp(a) mass resulted in higher subdistribution HRs for uncorrected LDL-C and incident CHD at Lp(a) ≥90th percentile (4.38 [95% CI: 2.08-9.22]) vs 2.60 [95% CI: 2.21-3.07]) at Lp(a) <90th percentile (top vs bottom fifth; Pinteraction0.39). In contrast, apoB risk estimates were lower in subjects with higher Lp(a) mass (2.43 [95% CI: 1.34-4.40]) than in Lp(a) <90th percentile (3.34 [95% CI: 2.78-4.01]) (Pinteraction0.49). CONCLUSIONS: Correction of LDL-C for its Lp(a)-C content provided no meaningful information on CHD-risk estimation at the population level. Simple categorization of Lp(a) mass (≥/<90th percentile) influenced the association between LDL-C or apoB with future CHD mostly at higher Lp(a) levels.

Cost-effectiveness of applying high-sensitivity troponin I to a score for cardiovascular risk prediction in asymptomatic population.

INTRODUCTION: Risk stratification scores such as the European Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) are used to guide individuals on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. Adding high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) to such risk scores has the potential to improve accuracy of CVD prediction. We investigated how applying hsTnI in addition to SCORE may impact management, outcome, and cost-effectiveness. METHODS: Characteristics of 72,190 apparently healthy individuals from the Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project were included into a discrete-event simulation comparing two strategies for assessing CVD risk. The standard strategy reflecting current practice employed SCORE (SCORE); the alternative strategy involved adding hsTnI information for further stratifying SCORE risk categories (S-SCORE). Individuals were followed over ten years from baseline examination to CVD event, death or end of follow-up. The model tracked the occurrence of events and calculated direct costs of screening, prevention, and treatment from a European health system perspective. Cost-effectiveness was expressed as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in € per quality-adjusted life year (QALYs) gained during 10 years of follow-up. Outputs were validated against observed rates, and results were tested in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: S-SCORE yielded a change in management for 10.0% of individuals, and a reduction in CVD events (4.85% vs. 5.38%, p<0.001) and mortality (6.80% vs. 7.04%, p<0.001). S-SCORE led to 23 (95%CI: 20-26) additional event-free years and 7 (95%CI: 5-9) additional QALYs per 1,000 subjects screened, and resulted in a relative risk reduction for CVD of 9.9% (95%CI: 7.3-13.5%) with a number needed to screen to prevent one event of 183 (95%CI: 172 to 203). S-SCORE increased costs per subject by 187€ (95%CI: 177 € to 196 €), leading to an ICER of 27,440€/QALY gained. Sensitivity analysis was performed with eligibility for treatment being the most sensitive. CONCLUSION: Adding a person's hsTnI value to SCORE can impact clinical decision making and eventually improves QALYs and is cost-effective compared to CVD prevention strategies using SCORE alone. Stratifying SCORE risk classes for hsTnI would likely offer cost-effective alternatives, particularly when targeting higher risk groups.

Prediction of individual lifetime cardiovascular risk and potential treatment benefit: development and recalibration of the LIFE-CVD2 model to four European risk regions.

AIMS: The 2021 European Society of Cardiology prevention guidelines recommend the use of (lifetime) risk prediction models to aid decisions regarding initiation of prevention. We aimed to update and systematically recalibrate the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model to four European risk regions for the estimation of lifetime CVD risk for apparently healthy individuals. METHODS AND RESULTS: The updated LIFE-CVD (i.e. LIFE-CVD2) models were derived using individual participant data from 44 cohorts in 13 countries (687 135 individuals without established CVD, 30 939 CVD events in median 10.7 years of follow-up). LIFE-CVD2 uses sex-specific functions to estimate the lifetime risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events with adjustment for the competing risk of non-CVD death and is systematically recalibrated to four distinct European risk regions. The updated models showed good discrimination in external validation among 1 657 707 individuals (61 311 CVD events) from eight additional European cohorts in seven countries, with a pooled C-index of 0.795 (95% confidence interval 0.767-0.822). Predicted and observed CVD event risks were well calibrated in population-wide electronic health records data in the UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and the Netherlands (Extramural LUMC Academic Network). When using LIFE-CVD2 to estimate potential gain in CVD-free life expectancy from preventive therapy, projections varied by risk region reflecting important regional differences in absolute lifetime risk. For example, a 50-year-old smoking woman with a systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 140 mmHg was estimated to gain 0.9 years in the low-risk region vs. 1.6 years in the very high-risk region from lifelong 10 mmHg SBP reduction. The benefit of smoking cessation for this individual ranged from 3.6 years in the low-risk region to 4.8 years in the very high-risk region. CONCLUSION: By taking into account geographical differences in CVD incidence using contemporary representative data sources, the recalibrated LIFE-CVD2 model provides a more accurate tool for the prediction of lifetime risk and CVD-free life expectancy for individuals without previous CVD, facilitating shared decision-making for cardiovascular prevention as recommended by 2021 European guidelines.

The study introduces LIFE-CVD2, a new tool that helps predict the risk of heart disease over a person's lifetime, and highlights how where you live in Europe can affect this risk.Using health information from over 687 000 people, LIFE-CVD2 looks at things like blood pressure and whether someone smokes to figure out their chance of having heart problems later in life. Health information from another 1.6 million people in seven different European countries was used to show that it did a good job of predicting who might develop heart disease.Knowing your heart disease risk over your whole life helps doctors give you the best advice to keep your heart healthy. Let us say there is a 50-year-old woman who smokes and has a bit high blood pressure. Right now, she might not look like she is in danger. But with the LIFE-CVD2 tool, doctors can show her how making changes today, like lowering her blood pressure or stopping smoking, could mean many more years without heart problems. These healthy changes can make a big difference over many years.

Prognostic Value of Cardiovascular Biomarkers in the Population.

Importance: Identification of individuals at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease within the population is important to inform primary prevention strategies. Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of routinely available cardiovascular biomarkers when added to established risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-level analysis including data on cardiovascular biomarkers from 28 general population-based cohorts from 12 countries and 4 continents with assessments by participant age. The median follow-up was 11.8 years. Exposure: Measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, B-type natriuretic peptide, or high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, which included all fatal and nonfatal events. The secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, heart failure, ischemic stroke, and myocardial infarction. Subdistribution hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of biomarkers and outcomes were calculated after adjustment for established risk factors. The additional predictive value of the biomarkers was assessed using the C statistic and reclassification analyses. Results: The analyses included 164 054 individuals (median age, 53.1 years [IQR, 42.7-62.9 years] and 52.4% were women). There were 17 211 incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events. All biomarkers were significantly associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (subdistribution HR per 1-SD change, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.11-1.16] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I; 1.18 [95% CI, 1.12-1.23] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; 1.21 [95% CI, 1.18-1.24] for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; 1.14 [95% CI, 1.08-1.22] for B-type natriuretic peptide; and 1.14 [95% CI, 1.12-1.16] for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) and all secondary outcomes. The addition of each single biomarker to a model that included established risk factors improved the C statistic. For 10-year incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in younger people (aged <65 years), the combination of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein resulted in a C statistic improvement from 0.812 (95% CI, 0.8021-0.8208) to 0.8194 (95% CI, 0.8089-0.8277). The combination of these biomarkers also improved reclassification compared with the conventional model. Improvements in risk prediction were most pronounced for the secondary outcomes of heart failure and all-cause mortality. The incremental value of biomarkers was greater in people aged 65 years or older vs younger people. Conclusions and Relevance: Cardiovascular biomarkers were strongly associated with fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events and mortality. The addition of biomarkers to established risk factors led to only a small improvement in risk prediction metrics for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but was more favorable for heart failure and mortality.

Nutrition, Physical Activity and Smoking Habit in the Italian General Adult Population: CUORE Project Health Examination Survey 2018-2019.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco consumption, incorrect nutrition and insufficient physical activity/sedentariness represent modifiable NCDs risk factors in Western countries. To evaluate recent lifestyle indicators in Italy, data from the national Health Examination Survey (HES), implemented in 2018-2019 within the CUORE Project, were assessed. METHODS: Age-sex standardized results from random samples of Italian general population (35-74 years) were reported by sex, age-class, educational level and geographical area. From 2106 participants, 2090 were considered for smoking habit, 2016 for physical activity and 1578 for nutrition. Standardized questionnaires were used for smoking habit and physical activity, and the EPIC questionnaire for nutrition. RESULTS: Total cigarette current smokers were 23% in men and 19% in women; sedentariness during leisure time was 34% in men and 45% in women and at work 45% and 47% in men and women, respectively. Prevalence of balanced eating behaviours for vegetables was 28% in men and 39% in women; and for fruits 50% and 52%, respectively; prevalence of correct lifestyle (not smoker, regular physical activity and following at least five correct eating behaviours) was 7% and 12% for men and women, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In 2018-2019, levels of unhealthy lifestyles were found to be still epidemic and basically stable compared to 10 years earlier (slight smoking habit decrease, slight sedentariness increase and slight nutrition improvements); intersectoral strategies and monitoring need to be continued.

C-reactive protein modifies lipoprotein(a)-related risk for coronary heart disease: the BiomarCaRE project.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Recent investigations have suggested an interdependence of lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)]-related risk for cardiovascular disease with background inflammatory burden. The aim the present analysis was to investigate whether high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) modulates the association between Lp(a) and coronary heart disease (CHD) in the general population. METHODS: Data from 71 678 participants from 8 European prospective population-based cohort studies were used (65 661 without/6017 with established CHD at baseline; median follow-up 9.8/13.8 years, respectively). Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted models were calculated according to accompanying hsCRP concentration (<2 and ≥2 mg/L). RESULTS: Among CHD-free individuals, increased Lp(a) levels were associated with incident CHD irrespective of hsCRP concentration: fully adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratios [sHRs (95% confidence interval)] for the highest vs. lowest fifth of Lp(a) distribution were 1.45 (1.23-1.72) and 1.48 (1.23-1.78) for a hsCRP group of <2 and ≥2 mg/L, respectively, with no interaction found between these two biomarkers on CHD risk (Pinteraction = 0.82). In those with established CHD, similar associations were seen only among individuals with hsCRP ≥ 2 mg/L [1.34 (1.03-1.76)], whereas among participants with a hsCRP concentration <2 mg/L, there was no clear association between Lp(a) and future CHD events [1.29 (0.98-1.71)] (highest vs. lowest fifth, fully adjusted models; Pinteraction = 0.024). CONCLUSIONS: While among CHD-free individuals Lp(a) was significantly associated with incident CHD regardless of hsCRP, in participants with CHD at baseline, Lp(a) was related to recurrent CHD events only in those with residual inflammatory risk. These findings might guide adequate selection of high-risk patients for forthcoming Lp(a)-targeting compounds.

Regional and temporal differences in the associations between cardiovascular disease and its classic risk factors: an analysis of 49 cohorts from 11 European countries.

AIMS: The regional and temporal differences in the associations between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its classic risk factors are unknown. The current study examined these associations in different European regions over a 30-year period. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study sample comprised 553 818 individuals from 49 cohorts in 11 European countries (baseline: 1982-2012) who were followed up for a maximum of 10 years. Risk factors [sex, smoking, diabetes, non-HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure (BP), and body mass index (BMI)] and CVD events (coronary heart disease or stroke) were harmonized across cohorts. Risk factor-outcome associations were analysed using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models, and differences in associations were assessed using meta-regression. The differences in the risk factor-CVD associations between central Europe, northern Europe, southern Europe, and the UK were generally small. Men had a slightly higher hazard ratio (HR) in southern Europe (P = 0.043 for overall difference), and those with diabetes had a slightly lower HR in central Europe (P = 0.022 for overall difference) compared with the other regions. Of the six CVD risk factors, minor HR decreases per decade were observed for non-HDL cholesterol [7% per mmol/L; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3-10%] and systolic BP (4% per 20 mmHg; 95% CI, 1-8%), while a minor HR increase per decade was observed for BMI (7% per 10 kg/m2; 95% CI, 1-13%). CONCLUSION: The results demonstrate that all classic CVD risk factors are still relevant in Europe, irrespective of regional area. Preventive strategies should focus on risk factors with the greatest population attributable risk.

All classic cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are still relevant in Europe, irrespective of regional area. The differences in the associations of CVD risk factors with overt CVD between regions of Europe are generally small. Minor temporal hazard decreases were observed for non-HDL cholesterol and systolic blood pressure, while a minor hazard increase was observed for body mass index.

Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking. METHODS: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6). CONCLUSIONS: Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).

National Health Examination Surveys: an essential piece of the health planning puzzle.

National health examination surveys (HESs) have been developed to provide important information that cannot be obtained from other sources. A HES combines information obtained by asking participants questions with biophysical measurements taken by trained field staff. They are observational studies with the highest external validity and make specific contributions to both population (public health) and individual health. Few countries have a track record of a regular wide-ranging HES, but these are the basis of many reports and scientific papers. Despite this, little evidence about HES usefulness and impact or the factors that influence HES effectiveness have been disseminated. This paper presents examples of HES contributions to society in both Europe and the Americas. We sought information by emailing a wide list of people involved in running or using national HESs across Europe and the Americas. We asked for examples of where examination data from their HES had been used in national or regional policymaking. We found multiple examples of HES data being used for agenda-setting, including by highlighting nutritional needs and identifying underdiagnosis and poor management of certain conditions. We also found many ways in which HES have been used to monitor the impact of policies and define population norms. HES data have also been used in policy formation and implementation. HES data are influential and powerful. There is need for global support, financing and networking to transfer capacities and innovation in both fieldwork and laboratory technology.

Biomarker-based prediction of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular outcomes in individuals with diabetes mellitus.

AIMS: The role of biomarkers in predicting cardiovascular outcomes in high-risk individuals is not well established. We aimed to investigate benefits of adding biomarkers to cardiovascular risk assessment in individuals with and without diabetes. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used individual-level data of 95 292 individuals of the European population harmonized in the Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment across Europe consortium and investigated the prognostic ability of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI), N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP). Cox-regression models were used to determine adjusted hazard ratios of diabetes and log-transformed biomarkers for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events. Models were compared using the likelihood ratio test. Stratification by specific biomarker cut-offs was performed for crude time-to-event analysis using Kaplan-Meier plots. Overall, 6090 (6.4%) individuals had diabetes at baseline, median follow-up was 9.9 years. Adjusting for classical risk factors and biomarkers, diabetes [HR 2.11 (95% CI 1.92, 2.32)], and all biomarkers (HR per interquartile range hs-cTnI 1.08 [95% CI 1.04, 1.12]; NT-proBNP 1.44 [95% CI 1.37, 1.53]; hs-CRP 1.27 [95% CI 1.21, 1.33]) were independently associated with cardiovascular events. Specific cut-offs for each biomarker identified a high-risk group of individuals with diabetes losing a median of 15.5 years of life compared to diabetics without elevated biomarkers. Addition of biomarkers to the Cox-model significantly improved the prediction of outcomes (likelihood ratio test for nested models P < 0.001), accompanied by an increase in the c-index (increase to 0.81). CONCLUSION: Biomarkers improve cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with and without diabetes and facilitate the identification of individuals with diabetes at highest risk for cardiovascular events.

In this work, the role of cardiac biomarkers measured from blood to predict cardiovascular events and death is tested in individuals of the general population and particularly in those with known diabetes. The work is based on a cooperation of different population studies across Europe and includes more than 90 000 individuals, with more than 6000 having diabetes. We could demonstrate that the determination of three cardiac biomarkers helps to identify individuals at highest risk for cardiovascular events (e.g. myocardial infarction or stroke) and death, despite accounting for known cardiovascular risk factors in these individuals. Therefore, these biomarkers should be considered for routine risk assessment for cardiovascular diseases and could improve the early identification of high-risk individuals, consequently leading to an earlier initiation of preventive therapies.

Trends of blood pressure, raised blood pressure, hypertension and its control among Italian adults: CUORE Project cross-sectional health examination surveys 1998/2008/2018.

OBJECTIVES: To assess in the Italian general adult population the trends of blood pressure (BP) and prevalence of raised BP (RBP), hypertension and its control in order to evaluate population health and care, and the achievement of an RBP 25% relative reduction as recommended by the WHO at population level. DESIGN: Results comparison of health examination surveys, cross-sectional observational studies based on health examination of randomly selected age and sex stratified samples including residents aged 35-74 years. Data of the 2018/2019 survey were compared with the previous ones collected in 1998/2002 and 2008/2012. SETTING: Health examination surveys conducted in Italy within the CUORE Project following standardised methodologies. PARTICIPANTS: 2985 men and 2955 women examined in 1998/2002, 2218 men and 2204 women examined in 2008/2012 and 1031 men and 1066 women examined in 2018/2019. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Age-standardised mean of BP, prevalence of RBP (systolic BP and/or diastolic BP ≥140/90 mm Hg), hypertension (presenting or being treated for RBP) and its awareness and control, according to sex, age class and educational level. RESULTS: In 2018/2019, a significant reduction was observed in systolic BP and diastolic BP in men (1998/2002: 136/86 mm Hg; 2008/2012: 132/84 mm Hg; and 2018/2019: 132/78 mm Hg) and women (132/82 mm Hg, 126/78 mm Hg and 122/73 mm Hg), and in the prevalence of RBP (50%, 40% and 30% in men and 39%, 25% and 16% in women) and of hypertension (54%, 49% and 44% in men and 45%, 35% and 32% in women). Trends were consistent by age and education attainment. In 2018/2019, hypertensive men and women with controlled BP were only 27% and 41%, but a significant favourable trend was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Data from 2018/2019 underlined that RBP is still commonly observed in the Italian population aged 35-74 years, however, the WHO RBP target at that time may be considered met.

Mild-to-Moderate Kidney Dysfunction and Cardiovascular Disease: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses.

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. METHODS: Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million person-years of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25 917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank. RESULTS: There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eGFR values <60 or >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, compared with those with eGFR between 60 and 105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR <60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, with a 14% (95% CI, 3%-27%) higher CHD risk per 5 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 lower genetically predicted eGFR, but not for those with eGFR >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD. CONCLUSIONS: In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function.

Trends of overweight, obesity and anthropometric measurements among the adult population in Italy: The CUORE Project health examination surveys 1998, 2008, and 2018.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Obesity is associated with an increased risk of noncommunicable diseases, such as diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, cancers, and conditions, including obstructive sleep apnea and osteoarthritis. Obesity is largely preventable, and halting its rise is one of the World Health Organization Global Action Plan for the Prevention of Noncommunicable Diseases targets. This study aimed to assess trends of anthropometric measurements in Italy using the data collected within the CUORE Project health examination surveys (HESs) 1998, 2008, and 2018. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Within the HESs 1998-2002, 2008-2012, and 2018-2019, anthropometric measurements were collected in random samples of the resident population aged 35-74 years, stratified by age and sex, from 10 Italian Regions in Northern, Central, and Southern Italy (2984 men and 2944 women, 2224 men and 2188 women, 1035 men and 1065 women, respectively). Weight, height, and waist and hip circumferences were measured using standardized methodologies. A standardized questionnaire was used to collect data on education. Indicators were age standardized. RESULTS: For both men and women, mean body mass index in 2018 was comparable with those in 1998 and 2008 (in 1998, 2008, and 2018-men: 26.7, 27.5, and 27.0 kg/m2; women: 26.2, 26.6, and 26.3 kg/m2). In 1998, 2008, 2018 prevalence of overweight resulted 49%, 47%, 46% in men and 33%, 32%, 28% in women respectively; prevalence of obesity resulted 17%, 24% 20% in men and 19%, 23%, 23% in women respectively. All indicators of excess weight worsen with increasing age and are more severe in persons with a lower educational level. CONCLUSIONS: Although the overall trend of excess weight over the past two decades appeared to be substantially stable in the Italian adult population, the continuous strengthening of undertaken initiatives should continue since there remains a high proportion of overweight or obesity and a gap between educational levels.

Simple cardiovascular risk stratification by replacing total serum cholesterol with anthropometric measures: The MORGAM prospective cohort project.

To assess whether anthropometric measures (body mass index [BMI], waist-hip ratio [WHR], and estimated fat mass [EFM]) are independently associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and to assess their added prognostic value compared with serum total-cholesterol. The study population comprised 109,509 individuals (53% men) from the MORGAM-Project, aged 19-97 years, without established cardiovascular disease, and not on antihypertensive treatment. While BMI was reported in all, WHR and EFM were reported in âˆ¼52,000 participants. Prognostic importance of anthropometric measurements and total-cholesterol was evaluated using adjusted Cox proportional-hazards regression, logistic regression, area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUCROC), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). The primary endpoint was MACE, a composite of stroke, myocardial infarction, or death from coronary heart disease. Age interacted significantly with anthropometric measures and total-cholesterol on MACE (P ≤ 0.003), and therefore age-stratified analyses (<50 versus ≥ 50 years) were performed. BMI, WHR, EFM, and total-cholesterol were independently associated with MACE (P ≤ 0.003) and resulted in significantly positive NRI when added to age, sex, smoking status, and systolic blood pressure. Only total-cholesterol increased discrimination ability (AUCROC difference; P < 0.001). In subjects < 50 years, the prediction model with total-cholesterol was superior to the model including BMI, but not superior to models containing WHR or EFM, while in those ≥ 50 years, the model with total-cholesterol was superior to all models containing anthropometric variables, whether assessed individually or combined. We found a potential role for replacing total-cholesterol with anthropometric measures for MACE-prediction among individuals < 50 years when laboratory measurements are unavailable, but not among those ≥ 50 years.

Influence of geographical latitude on vitamin D status: cross-sectional results from the BiomarCaRE consortium.

Even though sunlight is viewed as the most important determinant of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) status, several European studies have observed higher 25(OH)D concentrations among north-Europeans than south-Europeans. We studied the association between geographical latitude (derived from ecological data) and 25(OH)D status in six European countries using harmonised immunoassay data from 81 084 participants in the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project (male sex 48·9 %; median age 50·8 years; examination period 1984-2014). Quantile regression models, adjusted for age, sex, decade and calendar week of sampling and time from sampling to analysis, were used for between-country comparisons. Up until the median percentile, the ordering of countries by 25(OH)D status (from highest to lowest) was as follows: Sweden (at 65·6-63·8°N), Germany (at 48·4°N), Finland (at 65·0-60·2°N), Italy (at 45·6-41·5°N), Scotland (at 58·2-55·1°N) and Spain (at 41·5°N). From the 75th percentile and upwards, Finland had higher values than Germany. As an example, using the Swedish cohort as a comparator, the median 25(OH)D concentration was 3·03, 3·28, 5·41, 6·54 and 9·28 ng/ml lower in the German, Finnish, Italian, Scottish and Spanish cohort, respectively (P-value < 0·001 for all comparisons). The ordering of countries was highly consistent in subgroup analyses by sex, age, and decade and season of sampling. In conclusion, we confirmed the previous observation of a north-to-south gradient of 25(OH)D status in Europe, with higher percentile values among north-Europeans than south-Europeans.

Time trends in ischaemic heart disease incidence and mortality over three decades (1990-2019) in 20 Western European countries: systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

AIMS: To investigate and compare changes in the rates of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) incidence and mortality between 1990 and 2019 in 20 high-income Western European countries with similar public health systems and low cardiovascular risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: The 2020 updated version of the Global Burden of Disease database was searched. Variability and differences in IHD incidence and mortality rates (per 100 000) between countries over time, were calculated. A piecewise linear (join point) regression model was used to identify the slopes of these trends and the points in time at which significant changes in the trends occur. Ischaemic heart disease incidence and mortality rates varied widely between countries but decreased for all between 1990 and 2019. The relative change was greater for mortality than for incidence. Ischaemic heart disease incidence rates declined by approximately 36% between 1990 and 2019, while mortality declined by approximately 60%. Breakpoint analysis showed that the largest decreases in incidence and mortality occurred between 1990 and 2009 (-32%, -52%, respectively), with a much slower decrease after that (-5.9%, -17.6%, respectively), and even a slight increase for some countries in recent years. The decline in both incidence and mortality was lower in the Mediterranean European countries compared to the Nordic and Central European regions. CONCLUSIONS: In the Western European countries studied, the decline in age-standardized IHD incidence over three decades was slower than the decline in age-standardized IHD mortality. Decreasing trends of both IHD incidence and mortality has substantially slowed, and for some countries flattened, in more recent years.

Iodine Intake from Food and Iodized Salt as Related to Dietary Salt Consumption in the Italian Adult General Population.

Since the Italian iodoprophylaxis strategy is based on the use of iodized salt, we assessed the relationship between dietary salt consumption and iodine intake in the Italian adult population. We estimated the relative contribution given by the use of iodized salt and by the iodine introduced by foods to the total iodine intake. The study population included 2219 adults aged 25-79 years (1138 men and 1081 women) from all Italian regions, participating to the Osservatorio Epidemiologico Cardiovascolare/Health Examination Survey 2008-2012 (OEC/HES), and examined for sodium and iodine intake in the framework of the MINISAL-GIRCSI Programme. Dietary sodium and total iodine intake were assessed by the measurement of 24 h urinary excretion, while the EPIC questionnaire was used to evaluate the iodine intake from food. Sodium and iodine intake were significantly and directly associated, upon accounting for age, sex, and BMI (Spearman rho = 0.298; p < 0.001). The iodine intake increased gradually across quintiles of salt consumption in both men and women (p < 0.001). The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) adequacy level for iodine intake was met by men, but not women, only in the highest quintile of salt consumption. We estimated that approximately 57% of the iodine intake is derived from food and 43% from salt. Iodized salt contributed 24% of the total salt intake, including both discretionary and non-discretionary salt consumption. In conclusion, in this random sample of the Italian general adult population examined in 2008-2012, the total iodine intake secured by iodized salt and the iodine provision by food was insufficient to meet the EFSA adequate iodine intake.

Iodine Intake Estimated by 24 h Urine Collection in the Italian Adult Population: 2008-2012 Survey.

Monitoring the population iodine status is essential for iodine deficiency eradication. This study assessed the average dietary iodine intake and the iodine status of a random sample of the Italian general adult population. The study population included 2378 adults aged 35-79 years (1229 men and 1149 women) from all 20 Italian regions, participating in the Osservatorio Epidemiologico Cardiovascolare/Health Examination Survey 2008-2012 (OEC/HES), and were examined for iodine intake in the framework of the MINISAL-GIRCSI Programme. Dietary iodine intake was assessed by the measurement of 24 h urinary iodine excretion. The median daily iodine intake of the whole population was lower (96 µg/d, interquartile range 51-165) than the daily adequate iodine intake according to both EFSA and WHO recommendation (150 µg/d), with a significantly lower value among women (85 µg/d) compared with men (111 µg/d). Iodine intake diminished with age and increased with BMI (body mass index) in male but not in female participants, without achieving the adequate intake in any sex, age, or BMI category. In this random sample of Italian general adult population examined in 2008-2012, iodine intake still remained lower than the recommended values despite the implementation of a strategy of iodoprophylaxis based on salt iodization in 2005. These data represent a valuable reference for future monitoring of iodine status in our country.

Psychiatric disorders among hospitalized patients deceased with COVID-19 in Italy.

BACKGROUND: there is concern about the increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 severe outcomes and disparity of care among patients with a psychiatric disorder (PD). Based on the Italian COVID-19 death surveillance, which collects data from all the hospitals throughout the country, we aimed to describe clinical features and care pathway of patients dying with COVID-19 and a preceding diagnosis of a PD. METHODS: in this cross-sectional study, the characteristics of a representative sample of patients, who have died with COVID-19 in Italian hospitals between February 21st and August 3rd 2020, were drawn from medical charts, described and analysed by multinomial logistic regression according to the recorded psychiatric diagnosis: no PD, severe PD (SPD) (i.e. schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders, bipolar and related disorders), common mental disorder (CMD) (i.e. depression without psychotic features, anxiety disorders). FINDINGS: the 4020 COVID-19 deaths included in the study took place in 365 hospitals across Italy. Out of the 4020 deceased patients, 84 (2•1%) had a previous SPD, 177 (4.4%) a CMD. The mean age at death was 78.0 (95%CI 77.6-78.3) years among patients without a PD, 71.8 (95%CI 69.3-72.0) among those with an SPD, 79.5 (95%CI 78.0-81.1) in individuals with a CMD. 2253 (61.2%) patients without a PD, 62 (73.8%) with an SPD, and 136 (78.2%) with a CMD were diagnosed with three or more non-psychiatric comorbidities.When we adjusted for clinically relevant variables, including hospital of death, we found that SPD patients died at a younger age than those without a PD (adjusted OR per 1 year increment 0.96; 95% CI 0.94-0.98). Women were significantly more represented among CMD patients compared to patients without previous psychiatric history (aOR 1.56; 95% CI 1.05-2.32). Hospital admission from long-term care facilities (LTCFs) was strongly associated with having an SPD (aOR 9.02; 95% CI 4.99-16.3) or a CMD (aOR 2.09; 95% CI 1.19-3.66). Comorbidity burden, fever, admission to intensive care and time from symptoms' onset to nasopharyngeal swab did not result significantly associated with an SPD or with a CMD in comparison to those without any PD. INTERPRETATION: even where equal treatment is in place, the vulnerability of patients with a PD may reduce their chance of recovering from COVID-19. The promotion of personalised therapeutic projects aimed at including people with PD in the community rather than in non-psychiatric LTCFs should be prioritised.