Machine Learning Approaches to Evaluate Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Randomized Controlled Trials: A Scoping Review.

BACKGROUND: Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) has received substantial attention recently. This has led to the development of several statistical and machine learning (ML) algorithms to assess HTEs through identifying individualized treatment effects. However, a comprehensive review of these algorithms is lacking. We thus aimed to catalog and outline currently available statistical and ML methods for identifying HTEs via effect modeling using clinical RCT data and summarize how they have been applied in practice. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We performed a scoping review using pre-specified search terms in MEDLINE and Embase, aiming to identify studies that assessed HTEs using advanced statistical and ML methods in RCT data published from 2010 to 2022. RESULTS: Among a total of 32 studies identified in the review, 17 studies applied existing algorithms to RCT data, and 15 extended existing algorithms or proposed new algorithms. Applied algorithms included penalized regression, causal forest, Bayesian causal forest, and other meta-learner frameworks. Of these methods, causal forest was the most frequently used (7 studies) followed by Bayesian causal forest (4 studies). Most applications were in cardiology (6 studies), followed by psychiatry (4 studies). We provide example R codes to illustrate how to implement these algorithms. CONCLUSION: This review identified and outlined various algorithms currently used to identify HTEs and individualized treatment effects in RCT data. Given the increasing availability of new algorithms, analysts should carefully select them after examining model performance and considering how the models will be used in practice.

Initial treatment choices for long-term remission of chronic insomnia disorder in adults: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to evaluate the comparative efficacy and acceptability of cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (CBT-I), pharmacotherapy, and their combination in the long and short terms among adults with chronic insomnia disorder. METHODS: We searched multiple databases to December 27, 2023. We included trials in hypnotic-free adults with chronic insomnia comparing at least two of CBT-I, pharmacotherapy, or their combination. We assessed the confidence in evidence using CINeMA. The primary outcome was long-term remission. Secondary outcomes included all-cause dropout and self-reported sleep continuity measures in the long term, and the same outcomes in the short term. We performed frequentist random-effects network meta-analyses (CRD42024505519). FINDINGS: We identified 13 trials including 823 randomized participants (mean age, 47.8 years; 60% women). CBT-I was more beneficial than pharmacotherapy in the long term (median duration, 24 weeks [range, 12 to 48 weeks]; remission odds ratio, 1.82 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.15-2.87]; [certainty of evidence: high]), while there was weaker evidence of benefit of combination against pharmacotherapy (1.71 [95% CI, 0.88-3.30: moderate]) and no clear difference of CBT-I against combination (1.07 [95% CI, 0.63-1.80: moderate]). CBT-I was associated with fewer dropouts than pharmacotherapy. Short-term outcomes favored CBT-I over pharmacotherapy except total sleep time. Given the average long-term remission rate in the pharmacotherapy-initiating arms of 28%, CBT-I resulted in a long-term remission rate of 41% (95% CI, 31%-53%) and combination 40% (95% CI, 25%-56%). INTERPRETATION: The current study found that starting with CBT-I for chronic insomnia leads to better outcomes than pharmacotherapy. Combination may be better than pharmacotherapy alone, but unlikely to be worth the additional burden over CBT-I alone.

Risk Factors for Falls Among Hospitalized Medical Patients - A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To identify and quantify risk factors for in-hospital falls in medical patients. DATA SOURCES: Six databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, CINAHL, and Google Scholar) were systematically screened until April 11, 2023, to identify relevant articles. STUDY SELECTION: All titles and abstracts of the retrieved articles were independently screened by 2 researchers who also read the full texts of the remaining articles. Quantitative studies that assessed risk factors for falls among adult patients acutely hospitalized were included in the review. Publications that did not capture internal medicine patients or focused on other specific populations were excluded. DATA EXTRACTION: Information on study characteristics and potential risk factors were systematically extracted. Risk of bias was assessed using the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses and Meta-analyses of Observational Studies in Epidemiology guidelines were followed for reporting. DATA SYNTHESIS: The main outcome was any in-hospital falls. Using a random-effects meta-analysis model, association measures for each risk factor reported in 5 or more studies were pooled. Separate analyses according to effect measure and studies adjusted for sex and age at least were performed. Of 5067 records retrieved, 119 original publications from 25 countries were included. In conclusion, 23 potential risk factors were meta-analyzed. Strong evidence with large effect sizes was found for a history of falls (odds ratio [OR], 2.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.63-3.96; I2, 91%), antidepressants (pooled OR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.92-2.65; I2, 0%), benzodiazepines (OR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.68-2.31; I2, 0%), hypnotics-sedatives (OR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.53-2.36; I2, 46%), and antipsychotics (OR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.33-1.95; I2, 0%). Furthermore, evidence of associations with male sex (OR, 1.22, 95% CI, 0.99-1.50; I2, 65%) and age (OR, 1.17, 95% CI, 1.02-1.35; I2, 72%) were found, but effect sizes were small. CONCLUSIONS: The comprehensive list of risk factors, which specifies the strength of evidence and effect sizes, could assist in the prioritization of preventive measures and interventions.

Comparative physiological effects of antipsychotic drugs in children and young people: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The degree of physiological responses to individual antipsychotic drugs is unclear in children and adolescents. With network meta-analysis, we aimed to investigate the effects of various antipsychotic medications on physiological variables in children and adolescents with neuropsychiatric and neurodevelopmental conditions. METHODS: For this network meta-analysis, we searched Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and Scopus from database inception until Dec 22, 2023, and included randomised controlled trials comparing antipsychotics with placebo in children or adolescents younger than 18 years with any neuropsychiatric and neurodevelopmental condition. Primary outcomes were mean change from baseline to end of acute treatment in bodyweight, BMI, fasting glucose, total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, prolactin, heart rate, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and QT interval corrected for heart rate (QTc) for patients receiving either active treatment or placebo. For multigroup trials reporting several doses, we calculated a summary value for each physiological variable for all doses. After transitivity assessment, we fitted frequentist random-effects network meta-analyses for all comparisons in the network. A Kilim plot was used to summarise the results for all treatments and outcomes, providing information regarding the strength of the statistical evidence of treatment effects, using p values. Network heterogeneity was assessed with τ, risk of bias of individual trials was assessed with the Cochrane Collaboration's Tool for Assessing Risk of Bias, and the credibility of findings from each network meta-analysis was assessed with the Confidence in Network Meta-Analysis (CINEMA) app. This study is registered on PROSPERO (CRD42021274393). FINDINGS: Of 6676 studies screened, 47 randomised controlled trials were included, which included 6500 children (mean age 13·29 years, SD 2·14) who received treatment for a median of 7 weeks (IQR 6-8) with either placebo (n=2134) or one of aripiprazole, asenapine, blonanserin, clozapine, haloperidol, lurasidone, molindone, olanzapine, paliperidone, pimozide, quetiapine, risperidone, or ziprasidone (n=4366). Mean differences for bodyweight change gain compared with placebo ranged from -2·00 kg (95% CI -3·61 to -0·39) with molindone to 5·60 kg (0·27 to 10·94) with haloperidol; BMI -0·70 kg/m2 (-1·21 to -0·19) with molindone to 2·03 kg/m2 (0·51 to 3·55) with quetiapine; total cholesterol -0·04 mmol/L (-0·39 to 0·31) with blonanserin to 0·35 mmol/L (0·17 to 0·53) with quetiapine; LDL cholesterol -0·12 mmol/L (-0·31 to 0·07) with risperidone or paliperidone to 0·17 mmol/L (-0·06 to 0·40) with olanzapine; HDL cholesterol 0·05 mmol/L (-0·19 to 0·30) with quetiapine to 0·48 mmol/L (0·18 to 0·78) with risperidone or paliperidone; triglycerides -0·03 mmol/L (-0·12 to 0·06) with lurasidone to 0·29 mmol/L (0·14 to 0·44) with olanzapine; fasting glucose from -0·09 mmol/L (-1·45 to 1·28) with blonanserin to 0·74 mmol/L (0·04 to 1·43) with quetiapine; prolactin from -2·83 ng/mL (-8·42 to 2·75) with aripiprazole to 26·40 ng/mL (21·13 to 31·67) with risperidone or paliperidone; heart rate from -0·20 bpm (-8·11 to 7·71) with ziprasidone to 12·42 bpm (3·83 to 21·01) with quetiapine; SBP from -3·40 mm Hg (-6·25 to -0·55) with ziprasidone to 10·04 mm Hg (5·56 to 14·51) with quetiapine; QTc from -0·61 ms (-1·47 to 0·26) with pimozide to 0·30 ms (-0·05 to 0·65) with ziprasidone. INTERPRETATION: Children and adolescents show varied but clinically significant physiological responses to individual antipsychotic drugs. Treatment guidelines for children and adolescents with a range of neuropsychiatric and neurodevelopmental conditions should be updated to reflect each antipsychotic drug's distinct profile for associated metabolic changes, alterations in prolactin, and haemodynamic alterations. FUNDING: UK Academy of Medical Sciences, Brain and Behaviour Research Foundation, UK National Institute of Health Research, Maudsley Charity, the Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, National Institute of Health and Care Research Biomedical Centre at King's College London and South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust, the Italian Ministry of University and Research, the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan, and Swiss National Science Foundation.

Comparative Efficacy and Acceptability of Treatment Strategies for Antipsychotic-Induced Akathisia: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Antipsychotics are the treatment of choice for schizophrenia, but they often induce akathisia. However, comparative efficacy of treatment strategies for akathisia remains unclear. DESIGN: We performed a systematic review and network meta-analyses (PROSPERO CRD42023450720). We searched multiple databases on July 24, 2023. We included randomized clinical trials comparing 1 or more treatment strategies for antipsychotic-induced akathisia against each other or control conditions. We included adults with schizophrenia or other psychiatric disorders treated with antipsychotics. The primary outcome was akathisia severity at posttreatment. Secondary outcomes included akathisia response, all-cause dropout, psychotic symptoms, and long-term akathisia severity. We synthesized data in random effects frequentist network meta-analyses and assessed confidence in the evidence using CINeMA. RESULTS: We identified 19 trials with 661 randomized participants (mean age 35.9 [standard deviation 12.0]; 36.7% [195 of 532] women). No trials examined dose reduction or switching of antipsychotics. Findings suggested 5-HT2A antagonists (k = 6, n = 108; standardized mean difference [SMD] -1.07 [95% confidence interval, -1.42; -0.71]) and beta-blockers (k = 8, n = 105; SMD -0.46 [-0.85; -0.07]) may improve akathisia severity, but confidence in the evidence was deemed low. We also found that benzodiazepines (k = 2, n = 13; SMD -1.62 [-2.64; -0.59]) and vitamin B6 (k = 3, n = 67; SMD -0.99 [-1.49; -0.50]) might also be beneficial, but confidence in the evidence was very low. Analyses of secondary outcomes did not provide additional insights. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that 5-HT2A antagonists, beta-blockers, and with a lesser certainty, benzodiazepines, and vitamin B6 might improve akathisia. Given the low to very low confidence in the evidence of add-on agents and the absence of evidence of their long-term efficacy, careful consideration of side effects is warranted. These recommendations are extremely preliminary and further trials are needed.

Meta-analysis of the prevalence of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder in prison: A comment on Fazel and Favril (2024) and reanalysis of the data.

BACKGROUND: Fazel and Favril presented a reanalysis of our previously published systematic review and meta-analysis on the prevalence of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in prison. AIMS: The current paper addresses some of the criticisms of Fazel and Favril on our meta-analysis and presents a reanalysis of the data, focusing on adult detained persons. METHODS: We conducted a meta-regression on 28 studies (n = 7710) to estimae the pooled prevalence of ADHD. RESULTS: This reanalysis yielded a pooled estimate of 22.2% for the prevalence of ADHD (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15.7; 28.6), which disagrees with the estimate given by Fazel and Favril (8.3%, 95% CI: 3.8; 12.8). CONCLUSION: We argue that the ADHD prevalence provided by Fazel and Favril was an underestimate due to their use of too restrictive exclusion criteria and suboptimal analysis methods. Our reanalysis on detained adults suggests a higher ADHD prevalence, which highlights the need to diagnose and treat ADHD in prison.

Targeted next-generation sequencing to diagnose drug-resistant tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Targeted next-generation sequencing (NGS) can rapidly and simultaneously detect mutations associated with resistance to tuberculosis drugs across multiple gene targets. The use of targeted NGS to diagnose drug-resistant tuberculosis, as described in publicly available data, has not been comprehensively reviewed. We aimed to identify targeted NGS assays that diagnose drug-resistant tuberculosis, determine how widely this technology has been used, and assess the diagnostic accuracy of these assays. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science Core Collection, Global Index Medicus, Google Scholar, ClinicalTrials.gov, and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform for published and unpublished reports on targeted NGS for drug-resistant tuberculosis from Jan 1, 2005, to Oct 14, 2022, with updates to our search in Embase and Google Scholar until Feb 13, 2024. Studies eligible for the systematic review described targeted NGS approaches to predict drug resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis infections using primary samples, reference strain collections, or cultured isolates from individuals with presumed or confirmed tuberculosis. Our search had no limitations on study type or language, although only reports in English, German, and French were screened for eligibility. For the meta-analysis, we included test accuracy studies that used any reference standard, and we assessed risk of bias using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool. The primary outcomes for the meta-analysis were sensitivity and specificity of targeted NGS to diagnose drug-resistant tuberculosis compared to phenotypic and genotypic drug susceptibility testing. We used a Bayesian bivariate model to generate summary receiver operating characteristic plots and diagnostic accuracy measures, overall and stratified by drug and sample type. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022368707. FINDINGS: We identified and screened 2920 reports, of which 124 were eligible for our systematic review, including 37 review articles and 87 reports of studies collecting samples for targeted NGS. Sequencing was mainly done in the USA (14 [16%] of 87), western Europe (ten [11%]), India (ten [11%]), and China (nine [10%]). We included 24 test accuracy studies in the meta-analysis, in which 23 different tuberculosis drugs or drug groups were assessed, covering first-line drugs, injectable drugs, and fluoroquinolones and predominantly comparing targeted NGS with phenotypic drug susceptibility testing. The combined sensitivity of targeted NGS across all drugs was 94·1% (95% credible interval [CrI] 90·9-96·3) and specificity was 98·1% (97·0-98·9). Sensitivity for individual drugs ranged from 76·5% (52·5-92·3) for capreomycin to 99·1% (98·3-99·7) for rifampicin; specificity ranged from 93·1% (88·0-96·3) for ethambutol to 99·4% (98·3-99·8) for amikacin. Diagnostic accuracy was similar for primary clinical samples and culture isolates overall and for rifampicin, isoniazid, ethambutol, streptomycin, and fluoroquinolones, and similar after excluding studies at high risk of bias (overall sensitivity 95·2% [95% CrI 91·7-97·1] and specificity 98·6% [97·4-99·3]). INTERPRETATION: Targeted NGS is highly sensitive and specific for detecting drug resistance across panels of tuberculosis drugs and can be performed directly on clinical samples. There is a paucity of data on performance for some currently recommended drugs. The barriers preventing the use of targeted NGS to diagnose drug-resistant tuberculosis in high-burden countries need to be addressed. FUNDING: National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and Swiss National Science Foundation.

Combining endpoint and change data did not affect the summary standardised mean difference in pairwise and network meta-analyses: An empirical study in depression.

When studies use different scales to measure continuous outcomes, standardised mean differences (SMD) are required to meta-analyse the data. However, outcomes are often reported as endpoint or change from baseline scores. Combining corresponding SMDs can be problematic and available guidance advises against this practice. We aimed to examine the impact of combining the two types of SMD in meta-analyses of depression severity. We used individual participant data on pharmacological interventions (89 studies, 27,409 participants) and internet-delivered cognitive behavioural therapy (iCBT; 61 studies, 13,687 participants) for depression to compare endpoint and change from baseline SMDs at the study level. Next, we performed pairwise (PWMA) and network meta-analyses (NMA) using endpoint SMDs, change from baseline SMDs, or a mixture of the two. Study-specific SMDs calculated from endpoint and change from baseline data were largely similar, although for iCBT interventions 25% of the studies at 3 months were associated with important differences between study-specific SMDs (median 0.01, IQR -0.10, 0.13) especially in smaller trials with baseline imbalances. However, when pooled, the differences between endpoint and change SMDs were negligible. Pooling only the more favourable of the two SMDs did not materially affect meta-analyses, resulting in differences of pooled SMDs up to 0.05 and 0.13 in the pharmacological and iCBT datasets, respectively. Our findings have implications for meta-analyses in depression, where we showed that the choice between endpoint and change scores for estimating SMDs had immaterial impact on summary meta-analytic estimates. Future studies should replicate and extend our analyses to fields other than depression.

The impact of continuity correction methods in Cochrane reviews with single-zero trials with rare events: A meta-epidemiological study.

Meta-analyses examining dichotomous outcomes often include single-zero studies, where no events occur in intervention or control groups. These pose challenges, and several methods have been proposed to address them. A fixed continuity correction method has been shown to bias estimates, but it is frequently used because sometimes software (e.g., RevMan software in Cochrane reviews) uses it as a default. We aimed to empirically compare results using the continuity correction with those using alternative models that do not require correction. To this aim, we reanalyzed the original data from 885 meta-analyses in Cochrane reviews using the following methods: (i) Mantel-Haenszel model with a fixed continuity correction, (ii) random effects inverse variance model with a fixed continuity correction, (iii) Peto method (the three models available in RevMan), (iv) random effects inverse variance model with the treatment arm continuity correction, (v) Mantel-Haenszel model without correction, (vi) logistic regression, and (vii) a Bayesian random effects model with binominal likelihood. For each meta-analysis we calculated ratios of odds ratios between all methods, to assess how the choice of method may impact results. Ratios of odds ratios <0.8 or <1.25 were seen in ~30% of the existing meta-analyses when comparing results between Mantel-Haenszel model with a fixed continuity correction and either Mantel-Haenszel model without correction or logistic regression. We concluded that injudicious use of the fixed continuity correction in existing Cochrane reviews may have substantially influenced effect estimates in some cases. Future updates of RevMan should incorporate less biased statistical methods.

Treatment methods for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in England: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the cost-effectiveness of different treatments for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). DESIGN: A cost-effectiveness analysis based on data available in the literature and expert opinion. SETTING: England. POPULATION: Women treated for CIN. METHODS: We developed a decision-analytic model to simulate the clinical course of 1000 women who received local treatment for CIN and were followed up for 10 years after treatment. In the model we considered surgical complications as well as oncological and reproductive outcomes over the 10-year period. The costs calculated were those incurred by the National Health Service (NHS) of England. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost per one CIN2+ recurrence averted (oncological outcome); cost per one preterm birth averted (reproductive outcome); overall cost per one adverse oncological or reproductive outcome averted. RESULTS: For young women of reproductive age, large loop excision of the transformation zone (LLETZ) was the most cost-effective treatment overall at all willingness-to-pay thresholds. For postmenopausal women, LLETZ remained the most cost-effective treatment up to a threshold of £31,500, but laser conisation became the most cost-effective treatment above that threshold. CONCLUSIONS: LLETZ is the most cost-effective treatment for both younger and older women. However, for older women, more radical excision with laser conisation could also be considered if the NHS is willing to spend more than £31,500 to avert one CIN2+ recurrence.

Lipid-Lowering Therapy and Risk of Hemorrhagic Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

BACKGROUND: There is debate over whether statins increase risk of hemorrhagic stroke, so we assessed current evidence, including data from new statin trials and trials of nonstatin low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C)- and triglyceride-lowering therapies. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a systematic review of large randomized clinical trials (≥1000 patients with ≥2 years follow-up) of LDL-C-lowering therapy (statin, ezetimibe, and PCSK-9 [proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9] inhibitor) and triglyceride-lowering therapy (omega-3 supplements and fibrate) that reported hemorrhagic stroke as an outcome. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Library up to July 2, 2021 and updated a meta-analysis of cardiovascular statin trials published in 2012. Among our several subgroup analyses, we looked at difference depending on stroke status and also depending on age. We identified 37 trials for LDL-C lowering (284 301 participants) and 11 for triglyceride lowering (120 984 participants). Overall, we found a higher risk of hemorrhagic stroke for LDL-C lowering, risk ratio (RR) 1.16 (95% CI, 1.01-1.32, P=0.03). For statins (33 trials, 216 258 participants), RR=1.17 (95% CI, 1.01-1.36); for PCSK-9 inhibitors (2 trials, 46 488 participants), RR=0.86 (95% CI, 0.43-1.74); and for ezetimibe (2 trials, 21 555 participants), RR=1.14 (95% CI, 0.64-2.03). In statin trials of patients with previous stroke/transient ischemic attack, RR was 1.46 (95% CI, 1.05-2.04), and in trials with mean age ≥65 years old, RR=1.34 (95% CI, 1.04-1.73) (Pint=0.14 and Pint=0.23 respectively); for triglyceride lowering (11 trials, 120 984 participants), RR=1.05 (95% CI, 0.86-1.30). CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence for a small increased risk of hemorrhagic stroke events with LDL-C-lowering therapies but no clear evidence for triglyceride-lowering therapies. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero; Unique identifier: CRD42021275363.

Effect of dairy consumption on cognition in older adults: A population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess the effect on cognitive function of adding dairy (total, fermented, non-fermented, full fat, low fat, and sugary) to the diet and of substituting some food groups for dairy. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a prospective population-based cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: We analyzed data from 1334 cognitively healthy participants (median age 67 years at baseline) with a mean follow-up of 5.6 years from the CoLaus|PsyColaus cohort in Lausanne, Switzerland. MEASUREMENTS: The participants completed a food frequency questionnaire at baseline and cognitive tests at baseline and at follow-up. Clinical dementia rating was the primary outcome. Subjective cognitive decline, memory, verbal fluency, executive and motor functions were secondary outcomes. METHODS: Our exposure was the consumption of total and 5 sub-types of dairy products (g/d). We used marginal structural models to compute average causal effects of 1) increasing dairy consumption by 100 g/d and 2) substituting 100 g/d of meat, fish, eggs, fruits and vegetables with dairy on the outcomes. We used inverse probability of the treatment and lost to follow-up weighting to account for measured confounding and non-random loss to follow-up. RESULTS: Overall, the effects of adding dairy products to the diet on cognition were negligible and imprecise. No substitution had a substantial and consistent effect on clinical dementia rating. The substitution of fish [11.7% (-3% to 26.5%)] and eggs [18% (2.3%-33.7%)] for dairy products could negatively impact verbal memory and neurolinguistic processes. CONCLUSION: We found no effect of adding dairy to the diet or substituting meat, vegetables or fruit for dairy on cognitive function in this cohort of older adults. The substitution of fish and eggs for dairy could have a negative effect on some secondary outcomes, but more studies modeling food substitutions are needed to confirm these results.

Efficacy and effectiveness of antipsychotics in schizophrenia: network meta-analyses combining evidence from randomised controlled trials and real-world data.

BACKGROUND: There is debate about the generalisability of results from randomised clinical trials (RCTs) to real-world settings. Studying outcomes of treatments for schizophrenia can shed light on this issue and inform treatment guidelines. We therefore compared the efficacy and effectiveness of antipsychotics for relapse prevention in schizophrenia and estimated overall treatment effects using all available RCT and real-world evidence. METHODS: We conducted network meta-analyses using individual participant data from Swedish and Finnish national registries and aggregate data from RCTs. The target population was adults (age >18 and <65 years) with schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder with stabilised symptoms. We analysed each registry separately to obtain hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for relapse within 6 months post-antipsychotic initiation as our main outcome. Interventions studied were antipsychotics, no antipsychotic use, and placebo. We compared HRs versus a reference drug (oral haloperidol) between registries, and between registry individuals who would be eligible and ineligible for RCTs, using the ratio of HRs. We synthesised evidence using network meta-analysis and compared results from our network meta-analysis of real-world data with our network meta-analysis of RCT data, including oral versus long-acting injectable (LAI) formulations. Finally, we conducted a joint real-world and RCT network meta-analysis. FINDINGS: We included 90 469 individuals from the Swedish and Finnish registries (mean age 45·9 [SD 14·6] years; 43 025 [47·5%] women and 47 467 [52·5%] men, ethnicity data unavailable) and 10 091 individuals from 30 RCTs (mean age 39·6 years [SD 11·7]; 3724 [36·9%] women and 6367 [63·1%] men, 6022 White [59·7%]). We found good agreement in effectiveness of antipsychotics between Swedish and Finnish registries (HR ratio 0·97, 95% CI 0·88-1·08). Drug effectiveness versus no antipsychotic was larger in RCT-eligible than RCT-ineligible individuals (HR ratio 1·40 [1·24-1·59]). Efficacy versus placebo in RCTs was larger than effectiveness versus no antipsychotic in real-world (HR ratio 2·58 [2·02-3·30]). We found no evidence of differences between effectiveness and efficacy for between-drug comparisons (HR ratio vs oral haloperidol 1·17 [0·83-1·65], where HR ratio >1 means superior effectiveness in real-world to RCTs), except for LAI versus oral comparisons (HR ratio 0·73 [0·53-0·99], indicating superior effectiveness in real-world data relative to RCTs). The real-world network meta-analysis showed clozapine was most effective, followed by olanzapine LAI. The RCT network meta-analysis exhibited heterogeneity and inconsistency. The joint real-world and RCT network meta-analysis identified olanzapine as the most efficacious antipsychotic amongst those present in both RCTs and the real world registries. INTERPRETATION: LAI antipsychotics perform slightly better in the real world than according to RCTs. Otherwise, RCT evidence was in line with real-world evidence for most between-drug comparisons, but RCTs might overestimate effectiveness of antipsychotics observed in routine care settings. Our results further the understanding of the generalisability of RCT findings to clinical practice and can inform preferential prescribing guidelines. FUNDING: None.

Components and Delivery Formats of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Chronic Insomnia in Adults: A Systematic Review and Component Network Meta-Analysis.

Importance: Chronic insomnia disorder is highly prevalent, disabling, and costly. Cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (CBT-I), comprising various educational, cognitive, and behavioral strategies delivered in various formats, is the recommended first-line treatment, but the effect of each component and delivery method remains unclear. Objective: To examine the association of each component and delivery format of CBT-I with outcomes. Data Sources: PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, PsycInfo, and International Clinical Trials Registry Platform from database inception to July 21, 2023. Study Selection: Published randomized clinical trials comparing any form of CBT-I against another or a control condition for chronic insomnia disorder in adults aged 18 years and older. Insomnia both with and without comorbidities was included. Concomitant treatments were allowed if equally distributed among arms. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Two independent reviewers identified components, extracted data, and assessed trial quality. Random-effects component network meta-analyses were performed. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was treatment efficacy (remission defined as reaching a satisfactory state) posttreatment. Secondary outcomes included all-cause dropout, self-reported sleep continuity, and long-term remission. Results: A total of 241 trials were identified including 31 452 participants (mean [SD] age, 45.4 [16.6] years; 21 048 of 31 452 [67%] women). Results suggested that critical components of CBT-I are cognitive restructuring (remission incremental odds ratio [iOR], 1.68; 95% CI, 1.28-2.20) third-wave components (iOR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.10-2.03), sleep restriction (iOR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.04-2.13), and stimulus control (iOR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.00-2.05). Sleep hygiene education was not essential (iOR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.77-1.32), and relaxation procedures were found to be potentially counterproductive(iOR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.64-1.02). In-person therapist-led programs were most beneficial (iOR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.19-2.81). Cognitive restructuring, third-wave components, and in-person delivery were mainly associated with improved subjective sleep quality. Sleep restriction was associated with improved subjective sleep quality, sleep efficiency, and wake after sleep onset, and stimulus control with improved subjective sleep quality, sleep efficiency, and sleep latency. The most efficacious combination-consisting of cognitive restructuring, third wave, sleep restriction, and stimulus control in the in-person format-compared with in-person psychoeducation, was associated with an increase in the remission rate by a risk difference of 0.33 (95% CI, 0.23-0.43) and a number needed to treat of 3.0 (95% CI, 2.3-4.3), given the median observed control event rate of 0.14. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings suggest that beneficial CBT-I packages may include cognitive restructuring, third-wave components, sleep restriction, stimulus control, and in-person delivery but not relaxation. However, potential undetected interactions could undermine the conclusions. Further large-scale, well-designed trials are warranted to confirm the contribution of different treatment components in CBT-I.

External validation of the Dat'AIDS score: A risk score for predicting 5-year overall mortality in people living with HIV aged 60 years or older.

OBJECTIVE: To perform an external validation of the Dat'AIDS score for predicting 5-year overall mortality among people with HIV (PWH) aged 60 years or older. METHODS: This was a multi-centre prospective cohort study at all sites participating in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). We calculated the Dat'AIDS score in PWH aged 60 years or older at their first visit between 1 January 2015 and 1 January 2020. People living with HIV-2 and those whose Dat'AIDS score could not be calculated were excluded. Patients were followed until 1 January 2020. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Vital status was collected throughout the study period. We obtained population and score descriptive statistics and assessed the score's discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: We included 2205 participants (82% male) of median [interquartile range (IQR)] age 62.0 (60.3-67.0) years, mostly with viraemia <50 copies/mL (92.7%). Median follow-up time was 15.9 years and median (IQR) CD4 cell count at enrolment was 586 (420-782) cells/µL. In all, 152 deaths were recorded during a total follow-up period of 7147 patient-years. The median (IQR) observed Dat'AIDS score was 3 (0-8). Discriminative capacities were good as the C-statistic was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.69-0.77) and consistent across all subgroups. Comparison of observed and expected survival probabilities showed good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: External validation of the Dat'AIDS score in patients aged 60 years or older showed that it could be a useful tool not only for research purposes, but also to identify older patients at a higher mortality risk and to tailor the most appropriate interventions.

Multiple imputation of incomplete multilevel data using Heckman selection models.

Missing data is a common problem in medical research, and is commonly addressed using multiple imputation. Although traditional imputation methods allow for valid statistical inference when data are missing at random (MAR), their implementation is problematic when the presence of missingness depends on unobserved variables, that is, the data are missing not at random (MNAR). Unfortunately, this MNAR situation is rather common, in observational studies, registries and other sources of real-world data. While several imputation methods have been proposed for addressing individual studies when data are MNAR, their application and validity in large datasets with multilevel structure remains unclear. We therefore explored the consequence of MNAR data in hierarchical data in-depth, and proposed a novel multilevel imputation method for common missing patterns in clustered datasets. This method is based on the principles of Heckman selection models and adopts a two-stage meta-analysis approach to impute binary and continuous variables that may be outcomes or predictors and that are systematically or sporadically missing. After evaluating the proposed imputation model in simulated scenarios, we illustrate it use in a cross-sectional community survey to estimate the prevalence of malaria parasitemia in children aged 2-10 years in five regions in Uganda.

A systematic review and meta-analysis investigating the relationship between metabolic syndrome and the incidence of thyroid diseases.

PURPOSE: To assess the prospective association between metabolic syndrome (MetS), its components, and incidence of thyroid disorders by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS: A systematic search was performed in Ovid Medline, Embase.com, and Cochrane CENTRAL from inception to February 22, 2023. Publications from prospective studies were included if they provided data on baseline MetS status or one of its components and assessed the incidence of thyroid disorders over time. A random effects meta-analysis was conducted to calculate the odds ratio (OR) for developing thyroid disorders. RESULTS: After full-text screening of 2927 articles, seven studies met our inclusion criteria. Two of these studies assessed MetS as an exposure (N = 71,727) and were included in our meta-analysis. The association between MetS at baseline and incidence of overt hypothyroidism at follow-up yielded an OR of 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.52-1.16 for two studies, I2 = 0%). Pooled analysis was not possible for subclinical hypothyroidism, due to large heterogeneity (I2 = 92.3%), nor for hyperthyroidism, as only one study assessed this association. We found evidence of an increased risk of overt (RR: 3.10 (1.56-4.64, I2 = 0%) and subclinical hypothyroidism (RR 1.50 (1.05-1.94), I2 = 0%) in individuals with obesity at baseline. There was a lower odds of developing overt hyperthyroidism in individuals with prediabetes at baseline (OR: 0.68 (0.47-0.98), I2 = 0%). CONCLUSIONS: We were unable to draw firm conclusions regarding the association between MetS and the incidence of thyroid disorders due to the limited number of available studies and the presence of important heterogeneity in reporting results. However, we did find an association between obesity at baseline and incidence of overt and subclinical hypothyroidism.

Imiquimod for Cervical and Vaginal Intraepithelial Neoplasia: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the treatment efficacy and the risk of adverse events of imiquimod for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and vaginal intraepithelial neoplasia (VAIN), compared with placebo or no intervention. DATA SOURCES: We searched Cochrane, PubMed, ISRCTN registry, ClinicalTrials.gov , and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform up to November 23, 2022. METHODS OF STUDY SELECTION: We included randomized controlled trials and prospective nonrandomized studies with control arms that investigated the efficacy of imiquimod for histologically confirmed CIN or VAIN. The primary outcomes were histologic regression of the disease (primary efficacy outcome) and treatment discontinuation due to side effects (primary safety outcome). We estimated pooled odds ratios (ORs) of imiquimod, compared with placebo or no intervention. We also conducted a meta-analysis of the proportions of patients with adverse events in the imiquimod arms. TABULATION, INTEGRATION, AND RESULTS: Four studies contributed to the pooled OR for the primary efficacy outcome. An additional four studies were available for meta-analyses of proportions in the imiquimod arm. Imiquimod was associated with increased probability of regression (pooled OR 4.05, 95% CI 2.08-7.89). Pooled OR for CIN in the three studies was 4.27 (95% CI 2.11-8.66); results of one study were available for VAIN (OR, 2.67, 95% CI 0.36-19.71). Pooled probability for primary safety outcome in the imiquimod arm was 0.07 (95% CI 0.03-0.14). The pooled probabilities (95% CI) of secondary outcomes were 0.51 (0.20-0.81) for fever, 0.53 (0.31-0.73) for arthralgia or myalgia, 0.31 (0.18-0.47) for abdominal pain, 0.28 (0.09-0.61) for abnormal vaginal discharge or genital bleeding, 0.48 (0.16-0.82) for vulvovaginal pain, and 0.02 (0.01-0.06) for vaginal ulceration. CONCLUSION: Imiquimod was found to be effective for CIN, whereas data on VAIN were limited. Although local and systemic complications are common, treatment discontinuation is infrequent. Thus, imiquimod is potentially an alternative therapy to surgery for CIN. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO, CRD42022377982.