Optimizing platelet transfusion through a personalized deep learning risk assessment system for demand management.

ABSTRACT: Platelet demand management (PDM) is a resource-consuming task for physicians and transfusion managers of large hospitals. Inpatient numbers and institutional standards play significant roles in PDM. However, reliance on these factors alone commonly results in platelet shortages. Using data from multiple sources, we developed, validated, tested, and implemented a patient-specific approach to support PDM that uses a deep learning-based risk score to forecast platelet transfusions for each hospitalized patient in the next 24 hours. The models were developed using retrospective electronic health record data of 34 809 patients treated between 2017 and 2022. Static and time-dependent features included demographics, diagnoses, procedures, blood counts, past transfusions, hematotoxic medications, and hospitalization duration. Using an expanding window approach, we created a training and live-prediction pipeline with a 30-day input and 24-hour forecast. Hyperparameter tuning determined the best validation area under the precision-recall curve (AUC-PR) score for long short-term memory deep learning models, which were then tested on independent data sets from the same hospital. The model tailored for hematology and oncology patients exhibited the best performance (AUC-PR, 0.84; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [ROC-AUC], 0.98), followed by a multispecialty model covering all other patients (AUC-PR, 0.73). The model specific to cardiothoracic surgery had the lowest performance (AUC-PR, 0.42), likely because of unexpected intrasurgery bleedings. To our knowledge, this is the first deep learning-based platelet transfusion predictor enabling individualized 24-hour risk assessments at high AUC-PR. Implemented as a decision-support system, deep-learning forecasts might improve patient care by detecting platelet demand earlier and preventing critical transfusion shortages.

Predicting Individual Patient Platelet Demand in a Large Tertiary Care Hospital Using Machine Learning.

Introduction: An increasing shortage of donor blood is expected, considering the demographic change in Germany. Due to the short shelf life and varying daily fluctuations in consumption, the storage of platelet concentrates (PCs) becomes challenging. This emphasizes the need for reliable prediction of needed PCs for the blood bank inventories. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate multimodal data from multiple source systems within a hospital to predict the number of platelet transfusions in 3 days on a per-patient level. Methods: Data were collected from 25,190 (42% female and 58% male) patients between 2017 and 2021. For each patient, the number of received PCs, platelet count blood tests, drugs causing thrombocytopenia, acute platelet diseases, procedures, age, gender, and the period of a patient's hospital stay were collected. Two models were trained on samples using a sliding window of 7 days as input and a day 3 target. The model predicts whether a patient will be transfused 3 days in the future. The model was trained with an excessive hyperparameter search using patient-level repeated 5-fold cross-validation to optimize the average macro F2-score. Results: The trained models were tested on 5,022 unique patients. The best-performing model has a specificity of 0.99, a sensitivity of 0.37, an area under the precision-recall curve score of 0.45, an MCC score of 0.43, and an F1-score of 0.43. However, the model does not generalize well for cases when the need for a platelet transfusion is recognized. Conclusion: A patient AI-based platelet forecast could improve logistics management and reduce blood product waste. In this study, we build the first model to predict patient individual platelet demand. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to introduce this approach. Our model predicts the need for platelet units for 3 days in the future. While sensitivity underperforms, specificity performs reliably. The model may be of clinical use as a pretest for potential patients needing a platelet transfusion within the next 3 days. As sensitivity needs to be improved, further studies should introduce deep learning and wider patient characterization to the methodological multimodal, multisource data approach. Furthermore, a hospital-wide consumption of PCs could be derived from individual predictions.

FHIR-PYrate: a data science friendly Python package to query FHIR servers.

BACKGROUND: We present FHIR-PYrate, a Python package to handle the full clinical data collection and extraction process. The software is to be plugged into a modern hospital domain, where electronic patient records are used to handle the entire patient's history. Most research institutes follow the same procedures to build study cohorts, but mainly in a non-standardized and repetitive way. As a result, researchers spend time writing boilerplate code, which could be used for more challenging tasks. METHODS: The package can improve and simplify existing processes in the clinical research environment. It collects all needed functionalities into a straightforward interface that can be used to query a FHIR server, download imaging studies and filter clinical documents. The full capacity of the search mechanism of the FHIR REST API is available to the user, leading to a uniform querying process for all resources, thus simplifying the customization of each use case. Additionally, valuable features like parallelization and filtering are included to make it more performant. RESULTS: As an exemplary practical application, the package can be used to analyze the prognostic significance of routine CT imaging and clinical data in breast cancer with tumor metastases in the lungs. In this example, the initial patient cohort is first collected using ICD-10 codes. For these patients, the survival information is also gathered. Some additional clinical data is retrieved, and CT scans of the thorax are downloaded. Finally, the survival analysis can be computed using a deep learning model with the CT scans, the TNM staging and positivity of relevant markers as input. This process may vary depending on the FHIR server and available clinical data, and can be customized to cover even more use cases. CONCLUSIONS: FHIR-PYrate opens up the possibility to quickly and easily retrieve FHIR data, download image data, and search medical documents for keywords within a Python package. With the demonstrated functionality, FHIR-PYrate opens an easy way to assemble research collectives automatically.