Estimating Vitamin K Antagonist Anticoagulation Benefit in People With Atrial Fibrillation Accounting for Competing Risks: Evidence From 12 Randomized Trials.

BACKGROUND: Patients with atrial fibrillation have a high mortality rate that is only partially attributable to vascular outcomes. The competing risk of death may affect the expected anticoagulant benefit. We determined if competing risks materially affect the guideline-endorsed estimate of anticoagulant benefit. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of 12 randomized controlled trials that randomized patients with atrial fibrillation to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) or either placebo or antiplatelets. For each participant, we estimated the absolute risk reduction (ARR) of VKAs to prevent stroke or systemic embolism using 2 methods-first using a guideline-endorsed model (CHA2DS2-VASc) and then again using a competing risk model that uses the same inputs as CHA2DS2-VASc but accounts for the competing risk of death and allows for nonlinear growth in benefit. We compared the absolute and relative differences in estimated benefit and whether the differences varied by life expectancy. RESULTS: A total of 7933 participants (median age, 73 years, 36% women) had a median life expectancy of 8 years (interquartile range, 6-12), determined by comorbidity-adjusted life tables and 43% were randomized to VKAs. The CHA2DS2-VASc model estimated a larger ARR than the competing risk model (median ARR at 3 years, 6.9% [interquartile range, 4.7%-10.0%] versus 5.2% [interquartile range, 3.5%-7.4%]; P<0.001). ARR differences varied by life expectancies: for those with life expectancies in the highest decile, 3-year ARR difference (CHA2DS2-VASc model - competing risk model 3-year risk) was -1.3% (95% CI, -1.3% to -1.2%); for those with life expectancies in the lowest decile, 3-year ARR difference was 4.7% (95% CI, 4.5%-5.0%). CONCLUSIONS: VKA anticoagulants were exceptionally effective at reducing stroke risk. However, VKA benefits were misestimated with CHA2DS2-VASc, which does not account for the competing risk of death nor decelerating treatment benefit over time. Overestimation was most pronounced when life expectancy was low and when the benefit was estimated over a multiyear horizon.

Predictors of intracranial hemorrhage in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with oral anticoagulants: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF and ORBIT-AF registries.

BACKGROUND: An unmet need exists to reliably predict the risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) treated with oral anticoagulants (OACs). HYPOTHESIS: An externally validated model improves ICH risk stratification. METHODS: Independent factors associated with ICH were identified by Cox proportional hazard modeling, using pooled data from the GARFIELD-AF (Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation) and ORBIT-AF (Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation) registries. A predictive model was developed and validated by bootstrap sampling and by independent data from the Danish National Patient Register. RESULTS: In the combined training data set, 284 of 53 878 anticoagulated patients had ICH over a 2-year period (0.31 per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.28-0.35). Independent predictors of ICH included: older age, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack, concomitant antiplatelet (AP) use, and moderate-to-severe chronic kidney disease (CKD). Vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) were associated with a significantly higher risk of ICH compared with non-VKA oral anticoagulants (NOACs) (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.25-2.08; p = .0002). The ability of the model to discriminate individuals in the training set with and without ICH was fair (optimism-corrected C-statistic: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.65-0.71) and outperformed three previously published methods. Calibration between predicted and observed ICH probabilities was good in both training and validation data sets. CONCLUSIONS: Age, prior ischemic events, concomitant AP therapy, and CKD were important risk factors for ICH in anticoagulated AF patients. Moreover, ICH was more frequent in patients receiving VKA compared to NOAC. The new validated model is a step toward mitigating this potentially lethal complication.

Overestimation of anticoagulant benefit in patients with atrial fibrillation and low life expectancy: evidence from 12 randomized trials.

Background: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have a high rate of all-cause mortality that is only partially attributable to vascular outcomes. While the competing risk of death may affect expected anticoagulant benefit, guidelines do not account for it. We sought to determine if using a competing risks framework materially affects the guideline-endorsed estimate of absolute risk reduction attributable to anticoagulants. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of 12 RCTs that randomized patients with AF to oral anticoagulants or either placebo or antiplatelets. For each participant, we estimated the absolute risk reduction (ARR) of anticoagulants to prevent stroke or systemic embolism using two methods. First, we estimated the ARR using a guideline-endorsed model (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) and then again using a Competing Risk Model that uses the same inputs as CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc but accounts for the competing risk of death and allows for non-linear growth in benefit over time. We compared the absolute and relative differences in estimated benefit and whether the differences in estimated benefit varied by life expectancy. Results: 7933 participants had a median life expectancy of 8 years (IQR 6, 12), determined by comorbidity-adjusted life tables. 43% were randomized to oral anticoagulation (median age 73 years, 36% women). The guideline-endorsed CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc model estimated a larger ARR than the Competing Risk Model (median ARR at 3 years, 6.9% vs. 5.2%). ARR differences varied by life expectancies: for those with life expectancies in the highest decile, 3-year ARR difference (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc model - Competing Risk Model 3-year risk) was -1.2% (42% relative underestimation); for those with life expectancies in the lowest decile, 3-year ARR difference was 5.9% (91% relative overestimation). Conclusion: Anticoagulants were exceptionally effective at reduced stroke risk. However, anticoagulant benefits were misestimated with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc, which does not account for the competing risk of death nor decelerating treatment benefit over time. Overestimation was most pronounced in patients with the lowest life expectancy and when benefit was estimated over a multi-year horizon.

Retrospective Comparison of Patients ≥ 80 Years With Atrial Fibrillation Prescribed Either an FDA-Approved Reduced or Full Dose Direct-Acting Oral Anticoagulant.

Direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) represent the standard for preventing stroke and systemic embolization (SSE) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). There is limited information for patients ≥ 80 years. We report a retrospective analysis of AF patients ≥ 80 years prescribed either a US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved reduced (n = 514) or full dose (n = 199) DOAC (Dabigatran, Rivaroxaban, or Apixaban) between January 1st, 2011 (first DOAC commercially available) and May 31st, 2017. The following multivariable differences in baseline characteristics were identified: patients prescribed a reduced dose DOAC were older (p < 0.001), had worse renal function (p = 0.001), were more often prescribed aspirin (p = 0.004) or aspirin and clopidogrel (p < 0.001), and more often had new-onset AF (p = 0.001). SSE and central nervous system (CNS) bleed rates were low and not different (1.02 vs 0 %/yr and 1.45 vs 0.44 %/yr) for the reduced and full dose groups, respectively. For non-CNS bleeds, rates were 10.89 vs 4.15 %/yr (p < 0.001, univariable) for the reduced and full doses, respectively. The mortality rate was 6.24 vs 1.75 %/yr (p = 0.001, univariable) for the reduced and full doses. Unlike the non-CNS bleed rate, mortality rate differences remained significant when adjusted for baseline characteristics. Thus, DOACs in patients ≥ 80 with AF effectively reduce SSE with a low risk of CNS bleeding, independent of DOAC dose. The higher non-CNS bleed rate and not the mortality rate is explained by the higher risk baseline characteristics in the reduced DOAC dose group. Further investigation of the etiology of non-CNS bleeds and mortality is warranted.

Drug Interactions Affecting Oral Anticoagulant Use.

Oral anticoagulants (OACs) are medications commonly used in patients with atrial fibrillation and other cardiovascular conditions. Both warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants are susceptible to drug-drug interactions (DDIs). DDIs are an important cause of adverse drug reactions and exact a large toll on the health care system. DDI for warfarin mainly involve moderate to strong inhibitors/inducers of cytochrome P450 (CYP) 2C9, which is responsible for the elimination of the more potent S-isomer of warfarin. However, inhibitor/inducers of CYP3A4 and CYP1A2 may also cause DDI with warfarin. Recognition of these precipitating agents along with increased frequency of monitoring when these agents are initiated or discontinued will minimize the impact of warfarin DDI. Direct oral anticoagulants are mainly affected by medications strongly affecting the permeability glycoprotein (P-gp), and to a lesser extent, strong CYP3A4 inhibitors/inducers. Dabigatran and edoxaban are affected by P-gp modulation. Strong inducers of CYP3A4 or P-gp should be avoided in all patients taking direct oral anticoagulant unless previously proven to be otherwise safe. Simultaneous strong CYP3A4 and P-gp inhibitors should be avoided in patients taking apixaban and rivaroxaban. Concomitant antiplatelet/anticoagulant use confers additive risk for bleeding, but their combination is unavoidable in many cases. Minimizing duration of concomitant anticoagulant/antiplatelet therapy as indicated by evidence-based clinical guidelines is the best way to reduce the risk of bleeding.

Drug Interactions Affecting Antiarrhythmic Drug Use.

Antiarrhythmic drugs (AAD) play an important role in the management of arrhythmias. Drug interactions involving AAD are common in clinical practice. As AADs have a narrow therapeutic window, both pharmacokinetic as well as pharmacodynamic interactions involving AAD can result in serious adverse drug reactions ranging from arrhythmia recurrence, failure of device-based therapy, and heart failure, to death. Pharmacokinetic drug interactions frequently involve the inhibition of key metabolic pathways, resulting in accumulation of a substrate drug. Additionally, over the past 2 decades, the P-gp (permeability glycoprotein) has been increasingly cited as a significant source of drug interactions. Pharmacodynamic drug interactions involving AADs commonly involve additive QT prolongation. Amiodarone, quinidine, and dofetilide are AADs with numerous and clinically significant drug interactions. Recent studies have also demonstrated increased morbidity and mortality with the use of digoxin and other AAD which interact with P-gp. QT prolongation is an important pharmacodynamic interaction involving mainly Vaughan-Williams class III AAD as many commonly used drug classes, such as macrolide antibiotics, fluoroquinolone antibiotics, antipsychotics, and antiemetics prolong the QT interval. Whenever possible, serious drug-drug interactions involving AAD should be avoided. If unavoidable, patients will require closer monitoring and the concomitant use of interacting agents should be minimized. Increasing awareness of drug interactions among clinicians will significantly improve patient safety for patients with arrhythmias.

Direct Oral Anticoagulants Versus Warfarin in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Patient-Level Network Meta-Analyses of Randomized Clinical Trials With Interaction Testing by Age and Sex.

BACKGROUND: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are preferred over warfarin for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation. Meta-analyses using individual patient data offer substantial advantages over study-level data. METHODS: We used individual patient data from the COMBINE AF (A Collaboration Between Multiple Institutions to Better Investigate Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulant Use in Atrial Fibrillation) database, which includes all patients randomized in the 4 pivotal trials of DOACs versus warfarin in atrial fibrillation (RE-LY [Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy], ROCKET AF [Rivaroxaban Once Daily Oral Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared With Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation], ARISTOTLE [Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation], and ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 [Effective Anticoagulation With Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 48]), to perform network meta-analyses using a stratified Cox model with random effects comparing standard-dose DOAC, lower-dose DOAC, and warfarin. Hazard ratios (HRs [95% CIs]) were calculated for efficacy and safety outcomes. Covariate-by-treatment interaction was estimated for categorical covariates and for age as a continuous covariate, stratified by sex. RESULTS: A total of 71 683 patients were included (29 362 on standard-dose DOAC, 13 049 on lower-dose DOAC, and 29 272 on warfarin). Compared with warfarin, standard-dose DOACs were associated with a significantly lower hazard of stroke or systemic embolism (883/29 312 [3.01%] versus 1080/29 229 [3.69%]; HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.74-0.89]), death (2276/29 312 [7.76%] versus 2460/29 229 [8.42%]; HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.87-0.97]), and intracranial bleeding (184/29 270 [0.63%] versus 409/29 187 [1.40%]; HR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.37-0.56]), but no statistically different hazard of major bleeding (1479/29 270 [5.05%] versus 1733/29 187 [5.94%]; HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.74-1.01]), whereas lower-dose DOACs were associated with no statistically different hazard of stroke or systemic embolism (531/13 049 [3.96%] versus 1080/29 229 [3.69%]; HR, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.95-1.19]) but a lower hazard of intracranial bleeding (55/12 985 [0.42%] versus 409/29 187 [1.40%]; HR, 0.28 [95% CI, 0.21-0.37]), death (1082/13 049 [8.29%] versus 2460/29 229 [8.42%]; HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.83-0.97]), and major bleeding (564/12 985 [4.34%] versus 1733/29 187 [5.94%]; HR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.45-0.88]). Treatment effects for standard- and lower-dose DOACs versus warfarin were consistent across age and sex for stroke or systemic embolism and death, whereas standard-dose DOACs were favored in patients with no history of vitamin K antagonist use (P=0.01) and lower creatinine clearance (P=0.09). For major bleeding, standard-dose DOACs were favored in patients with lower body weight (P=0.02). In the continuous covariate analysis, younger patients derived greater benefits from standard-dose (interaction P=0.02) and lower-dose DOACs (interaction P=0.01) versus warfarin. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with warfarin, DOACs have more favorable efficacy and safety profiles among patients with atrial fibrillation.

Using multimarker screening to identify biomarkers associated with cardiovascular death in patients with atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with higher mortality. Biomarkers may improve the understanding of key pathophysiologic processes in AF that lead to death. Using a new multiplex analytic technique, we explored the association between 268 biomarkers and cardiovascular (CV) death in anticoagulated patients with AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: A case-cohort design with 1.8- to 1.9-year follow-up. The identification cohort included 517 cases and 4057 randomly selected patients from ARISTOTLE. The validation cohort included 277 cases and 1042 randomly selected controls from RE-LY. Plasma collected at randomization was analysed with conventional immunoassays and the OLINK proximity extension assay panels: CVDII, CVDIII, and Inflammation. Association between biomarkers and CV death was evaluated using Random Survival Forest, Boruta, and adjusted Cox-regression analyses. The biomarkers most strongly and consistently associated with CV death were as follows (hazard ratio for inter-quartile comparison [95% CI]): N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP; 1.63 (1.37-1.93)], cardiac troponin T [cTnT-hs; 1.60 (1.35-1.88)], interleukin-6 [IL-6; 1.29 (1.13-1.47)], growth differentiation factor-15 [GDF-15; 1.30 (1.10-1.53)], fibroblast growth factor 23 [FGF-23; 1.21 (1.10-1.33)], urokinase receptor [uPAR; 1.38 (1.16-1.64)], trefoil factor 3 [TFF3; 1.27 (1.10-1.46)], tumour necrosis factor receptor 1 [TNFR1; 1.21 (1.01-1.45)], TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand receptor 2 [TRAILR2; 1.18 (1.04-1.34)], and cathepsin L1 [CTSL1; 1.22 (1.07-1.39)]. CONCLUSION: In this comprehensive screening of 268 biomarkers in anticoagulated patients with AF, the underlying mechanisms most strongly associated with CV death were cardiorenal dysfunction (NT-proBNP, cTnT-hs, CTSL1, TFF3), oxidative stress (GDF-15), inflammation (IL-6, GDF-15), calcium balance, vascular and renal dysfunction (FGF-23), fibrinolysis (suPAR), and apoptosis (TNFR1, TRAILR2). These findings provide novel insights into pathophysiologic aspects associated with CV death in AF. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV IDENTIFIER: NCT00412984 and NCT00262600.

Stroke risk prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation with and without rheumatic heart disease.

AIMS: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD), especially mitral stenosis, are assumed to be at high risk of stroke, irrespective of other factors. We aimed to re-evaluate stroke risk factors in a contemporary cohort of AF patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed data of 15 400 AF patients presenting to an emergency department and who were enrolled in the global RE-LY AF registry, representing 47 countries from all inhabited continents. Follow-up occurred at 1 year after enrolment. A total of 1788 (11.6%) patients had RHD. These patients were younger (51.4±15.7 vs. 67.8±13.6 years), more likely to be female (66.2% vs. 44.7%) and had a lower mean CHA2DS2-VASc score (2.1±1.7 vs. 3.7±2.2) as compared to patients without RHD (all P<0.001). Significant mitral stenosis (average mean transmitral gradient 11.5±6.5 mmHg) was the predominant valve lesion in those with RHD (59.6%). Patients with RHD had a higher baseline rate of anticoagulation use (60.4% vs. 45.2%, P<0.001). Unadjusted stroke rates at 1 year were 2.8% and 4.1% for patients with and without RHD, respectively. The performance of the CHA2DS2-VASc score was modest in both groups [stroke at 1 year, c-statistics 0.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.60-0.78 and 0.63, 95% CI 0.61-0.66, respectively]. In the overall cohort, advanced age, female sex, prior stroke, tobacco use, and non-use of anticoagulation were predictors for stroke (all P<0.05). Mitral stenosis was not associated with stroke risk (adjusted odds ratio 1.07, 95% CI 0.67-1.72, P=0.764). CONCLUSION: The performance of the CHA2DS2-VASc score was modest in AF patients both with and without RHD. In this cohort, moderate-to-severe mitral stenosis was not an independent risk factor for stroke.

Testing the feasibility of operationalizing a prospective, randomized trial with remote cardiac safety EKG monitoring during a pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is highly contagious. Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) has in vitro activity against SARS-CoV-2. The FDA authorized emergency use of HCQ against COVID-19. HCQ may have dose-related cardiotoxicity. This clinical trial received ethical approval on May 15, 2020, operationalized in June to evaluate a low prophylaxis dose of HCQ (200mg BID) in household contacts of COVID-19-positive patients without physical contact between investigators and participants. It represents the first report of the FDA approved 6-lead EKGs with a smartphone KardiaMobile® 6L application. METHODS: To reach a sample size of 170, household members were contacted by telephone, emailed consent forms with electronic signature capability, and randomized 2:1 to HCQ or observation for 10 days with follow-up of 14 days. Home saliva PCR tests recorded COVID status on days 1 and 14. Symptoms and 6-lead EKGs were obtained daily. RESULTS: Fifty-one participants were randomized with 42 evaluable at day 14. Remote monitoring of 407 EKGs revealed no QTc prolongation or other ECG changes in either group. At time of consent, no participants were symptomatic or COVID+. On days 1 and 14, COVID tests were positive in 4 and 2 in the HCQ group and 4 and 0 in the observation group. No tests converted to positive. There were no deaths or hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: A clinical trial without personal contact, rapidly initiated and operationalized to exclude cardiac toxicity using daily remote 6-lead EKG monitoring, is feasible. Of 407 EKGs from 42 participants, there was no evidence of cardiac toxicity. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov : NCT04652648 registration date: December 3, 2020.

Residual stroke risk despite oral anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation.

Background: Oral anticoagulation (OAC) reduces the risk of thromboembolic events in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF); however, thromboembolism (TE) still can occur despite OAC. Factors associated with residual risk for stroke, systemic embolism, or transient ischemic attack events despite OAC have not been well described. Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the residual risk of thromboembolic events in patients with AF despite OAC. Methods: A total of 18,955 patients were analyzed in the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF I and II) using multivariable Cox proportional hazard modeling. Mean age was 72 ± 10.7, and 42% were women. There were 451 outcome events. Results: The risk of TE despite OAC increased with CHA2DS2-VASc score: 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.63-0.92) events per 100 patient-years for CHA2DS2-VASc score <4 vs 2.01 (95% CI 1.81-2.24) events per 100-patient years for CHA2DS2-VASc score >4. Factors associated with increased risk were previous stroke or transient ischemic attack (hazard ratio [HR] 2.87; 95% CI 2.30-3.59; P <.001), female sex (HR 1.52; 95% CI 1.24-1.86; P <.001), hypertension (HR 1.50; 95% CI 1.09-2.06; P = .01), and permanent AF (HR 1.47; 95% CI 1.12-1.94; P = .001). When transient ischemic attack was excluded, the results were similar, but permanent AF was no longer significantly associated with thromboembolic events. Conclusion: Patients with AF have a residual risk of TE with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score despite OAC. Key risk markers include previous stroke/transient ischemic attack, female sex, hypertension, and permanent AF.

The future is now: our experience starting a remote clinical trial during the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization declared the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 a pandemic on February 11, 2020. This organism causes COVID-19 disease and the rapid rise in cases and geographic spread strained healthcare systems. Clinical research trials were hindered by infection control measures discouraging physical contact and diversion of resources to meet emergent requirements. The need for effective treatment and prevention of COVID-19 prompted an untested investigational response. Trial groups adapted approaches using remote enrolment and consenting, newly developed diagnostic tests, delivery of study medications and devices to participants' homes, and remote monitoring to ensure investigator/enrollee safety while preserving ethical integrity, confidentiality, and data accuracy. METHODS: Clinical researchers at our community health system in the USA undertook an outpatient randomized open-label study of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) prophylaxis versus observation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in household COVID-19 contacts. Designed in March 2020, challenges included COVID-19 infection in the research group, HCQ shortage, and lack of well-established home SARS-CoV-2 tests and remote ECG monitoring protocols in populations naive to these procedures. The study was written, funded, and received ethical committee approval in 4 months and was completed by September 2020 during a period of fluctuating infection rates and conflicting political opinions on HCQ use; results have been published. Singular methodology included the use of a new RNA PCR saliva SARS-CoV-2 home diagnostic test and a remote smartphone-based 6-lead ECG recording system. RESULTS: Of 483 households contacted regarding trial participation, 209 (43.3%) did not respond to telephone calls/e-mails and 90 (18.6%) declined; others were not eligible by inclusion or exclusion criteria. Ultimately, 54 individuals were enrolled and 42 completed the study. Numbers were too small to determine the efficacy of HCQ prophylaxis. No serious treatment-related adverse events were encountered. CONCLUSIONS: Flexibility in design, a multidisciplinary research team, prompt cooperation among research, funding, ethics review groups, and finding innovative study approaches enabled this work. Concerns were balancing study recruitment against unduly influencing individuals anxious for protection from the pandemic and exclusion of groups based on lack of Internet access and technology. An issue to address going forward is establishing research cooperation across community health systems before emergencies develop. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04652648 . Registered on December 3, 2020.

LVS-HARMED Risk Score for Incident Heart Failure in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Who Present to the Emergency Department: Data from a World-Wide Registry.

Background Heart failure (HF) is a common complication to atrial fibrillation (AF), leading to rehospitalization and death. Early identification of patients with AF at risk for HF might improve outcomes. We aimed to derive a score to predict 1-year risk of new-onset HF after an emergency department (ED) visit with AF. Methods and Results The RE-LY AF (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulant Therapy) registry enrolled patients with AF presenting to an ED in 47 countries, and followed them for a year. The end point was HF hospitalization and/or HF death. Among 15 400 ED patients, 9765 had no prior HF (mean age, 64.9±14.9 years). Within 1 year, new-onset HF developed in 6.8% of patients, of whom 21% died of HF. Independent predictors of HF included left ventricular hypertrophy (odds ratio [OR], 1.47; 95% CI, 1.19-1.82), valvular heart disease (OR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.18-2.04), smoking (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.12-1.78), height (OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.90-0.95 per 3 cm), age (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.07-1.15 per 5 years), rheumatic heart disease (OR, 1.77, 95% CI, 1.24-2.51), prior myocardial infarction (OR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.45-2.36), remaining in AF at ED discharge (OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.46-2.36), and diabetes (OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.09-1.64). A continuous risk prediction score (LVS-HARMED [left ventricular, valvular heart disease, smoking or other tobacco use, height, age, rheumatic heart disease, myocardial infarction, emergency department discharge rhythm, and diabetes]) had good discrimination (C statistic, 0.735; 95% CI, 0.716-0.755). Validation was conducted internally using bootstrapping (optimism-corrected C statistic, 0.705) and externally (C statistic, 0.699). The 1-year incidence of HF hospitalization and/or HF death across quartile groups of the score was 1.1%, 4.5%, 6.9%, and 14.4%, respectively. LVS-HARMED also predicted incident stroke (C statistic, 0.753; 95% CI, 0.728-0.778). Conclusions The LVS-HARMED score predicts new-onset HF after an ED visit for AF. Preventative strategies should be considered in patients with high LVS-HARMED HF risk.

Predictors of sinus rhythm 6 weeks after cardioversion of atrial fibrillation: a pre-planned post hoc analysis of the X-VeRT trial.

AIMS: Using a pre-planned post hoc analysis of patients included in X-VeRT, we evaluated predictors of sinus rhythm at 6 weeks after planned cardioversion. METHODS AND RESULTS: Receiver operating characteristic curves and logistic regression models were used to evaluate continuous and categorical variables as predictors of sinus rhythm 6 at weeks from cardioversion (end of study). The primary analysis was performed in successfully cardioverted patients with an evaluable electrocardiogram at end of study. A second analysis evaluated additional patients who spontaneously restored sinus rhythm before planned cardioversion. Of the 1504 patients with atrial fibrillation of >48 h or of unknown duration who were randomly assigned to either rivaroxaban or vitamin K antagonist, 1039 (64.6 ± 10.3 years, 73.4% male) underwent planned cardioversion and were included in this study. Patients receiving early cardioversion (i.e. between 1 and 5 days from hospitalization) had a 67% higher probability to have sinus rhythm at end of study than those who received delayed cardioversion (i.e. between 21 and 56 days from hospitalization) [odds ratio (OR) 1.67, confidence interval (CI) 1.27-2.18; P < 0.0001]. In a multivariate analysis of 17 baseline variables, patients with a CHADS2 score of 0 were 33% less likely to be in sinus rhythm than those with a CHADS2 score ≥2 (OR 0.66, CI 0.47-0.94; P = 0.0225). In the secondary analysis, spontaneous restoration of sinus rhythm was also found to predict sinus rhythm at end of study (OR 8.62, CI 1.54-48.16; P = 0.0142). CONCLUSION: In X-VeRT, early cardioversion and high CHADS2 scores predicted sinus rhythm at 6 weeks from cardioversion.

Comparison of Low-Dose Direct Acting Anticoagulant and Warfarin in patients Aged ≥80 years With Atrial Fibrillation.

Low dose direct acting oral anticoagulants (LDDOACS) were approved for elderly atrial Fibrillation (AF) patients with limited information. A retrospective analysis collecting baseline characteristics and outcomes in AF patients ≥ 80 prescribed LDDOAC or warfarin (W), from a multidisciplinary practice between 1/1/11 (First LDDOAC available) and 5/31/17 was conducted. From 9660 AF patients, 514 ≥ 80 received a LDDOAC and 422 W. A multivariable comparison found LDDOAC patients were older (p <0.001), had lower creatinine clearance (CrCl) (p = 0.006), used more anti-platelet drugs (p <0.001), and more often had new onset AF verses those prescribed W (p <0.001). There were no clinically significant differences among those patients receiving Dabigatran 75 mgs BID (D), Rivaroxaban 15mgs (R) or Apixaban 2.5mgs BID (A). Forty-eight and 50% of the patients remained on their LDDOAC or W for the observation period (p = 0.55). Stroke/systemic embolism (SSE) and CNS bleeds were 1.16 vs 2.22%/yr., (p = 0.143) and 1.46 vs 0.93%/yr., (p = 0.24). Mortality and major bleeds were 6.26 vs 1.67%/yr., and 12.3vs 3.77%/yr. (p <0.001). SSE were 1.1%/yr for D, R, and A (p = 0.94). CNS bleeds were 2.2 for D, 1.7 for R and 0.8%/yr. for A: p = 0.53. Major bleeding was: 14.3 for D, 14.1 for R and 9.1%/yr. for A, p = 0.048 (with A < R, p = 0.01). Mortality was 5.5 for D, 4.2 for R and 9.5% for A, p = 0.031. In conclusion, half the patients remained on their assigned anti-coagulant. SSE and intracranial bleed rates were similar and low. Major bleeds and deaths were different between groups emphasizing the need for prospective randomized trials in this growing population with AF.

Cardiovascular Outcomes According to Polypharmacy and Drug Adherence in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation on Long-Term Anticoagulation (from the RE-LY Trial).

Prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) increases with age, along with comorbidities and, thus, polypharmacy. Non-adherence is associated with polypharmacy. This study aimed to identify patients at risk for cardiovascular events according to their pharmacological treatment intensity and adherence. Patients (n = 18,113) with a mean age of 71.5 ± 8.7 years, at high cardiovascular risk were followed between December 2005 until December 2007 for a median time of 2 years. The association between polypharmacy and adherence and their impact on cardiovascular and bleeding events were explored. Adherence was defined as a study drug intake of ≥80%. Patients with more co-medications had a higher body mass index, higher prevalence of hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and diabetes mellitus (all p < 0.0001) compared to ≤4 or 5-8 co-medications, but no differences in history of stroke (p = 0.68) or transient ischemic attack (p = 0.065). Across all treatments, the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) increased in patients with more co-medications (≥9 vs ≤4) for all-cause death (HR 1.30; 1.06-1.59), major bleeding (HR 1.65; 1.33-2.05), and all bleeding events (HR 1.44; 1.31-1.59). Yearly event rates were higher in non-adherent than adherent patients for stroke and systemic embolism (SSE) (3.14 vs 1.00), all-cause death (7.76 vs 2.66), major bleeding (6.21 vs 2.65), and all bleeding (28.71 vs 19.05; all p < 0.0001). After an event the patients were more likely to become non-adherent (adherence after SSE 30.3%, after major bleeding 33.4%, after all bleeding 66.7%; all p < 0.0001). The treatment effects were consistent to the overall group in the different polypharmacy groups. In conclusion, polypharmacy and non-adherence are risk indicators for increased adverse cardiovascular and bleeding events. Dabigatran is safe to use across the full spectrum of AF patients, independent of the number of co-medications and adherence. Patients with co-medications and comorbidities require special attention and encouragement to adhere to oral anticoagulation.

Evaluation of the prognostic value of GDF-15, ABC-AF-bleeding score and ABC-AF-death score in patients with atrial fibrillation across different geographical areas.

OBJECTIVES: Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) is a biomarker independently associated with bleeding and death in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). GDF-15 is also used as one component in the more precise biomarker-based ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history)-AF-bleeding and ABC-AF-death risk scores. Data from large trials indicate a geographic variability in regard to overall outcomes, including bleeding and mortality risk. Our aim was to assess the consistency of the association between GDF-15, ABC-AF-bleeding score and ABC-AF-death score, with major bleeding and death, across world geographic regions. METHODS: Data were available from 14 767 patients with AF from the Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation (ARISTOTLE) trial and 8651 patients with AF from the Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy (RE-LY) trial in this cohort study. GDF-15 was analysed from plasma samples obtained at randomisation. The geographical consistency of the associations between outcomes and GDF-15, ABC-AF-bleeding score and ABC-AF-death scores were assessed by Cox-regression models including interactions with predefined geographical region. RESULTS: GDF-15 and the ABC-AF-bleeding score were associated with major bleeding in both trials across regions (p<0.0001). Similarly, GDF-15 and the ABC-AF-death score were associated with all-cause mortality in both trials across regions (p<0.0001). Overall, the association between GDF-15, the ABC-AF-bleeding score and ABC-AF-death risk score with major bleeding and death was consistent across regions in both ARISTOTLE and the RE-LY trial cohorts. The ABC-AF-bleeding and ABC-AF-death risk scores were consistent regarding discriminative ability when comparing geographic regions in both trial cohorts. The C-indices ranged from 0.649 to 0.760 for the ABC-AF-bleeding and from 0.677 to 0.806 for the ABC-AF-death score by different geographic regions. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AF on anticoagulation, GDF-15 and the biomarker-based ABC-AF-bleeding and ABC-AF-death risk scores are consistently associated with respectively increased risk of major bleeding and death and have similar prognostic value across world geographic regions. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry NCT00412984 and NCT00262600.

Patterns of oral anticoagulation use with cardioversion in clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: Cardioversion is common among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We hypothesised that novel oral anticoagulants (NOAC) used in clinical practice resulted in similar rates of stroke compared with vitamin K antagonists (VKA) for cardioversion. METHODS: Using the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation II, patients with AF who had a cardioversion, follow-up data and an AF diagnosis within 6 months of enrolment were identified retrospectively. Clinical outcomes were compared for patients receiving a NOAC or VKA for 1 year following cardioversion. RESULTS: Among 13 004 patients with AF, 2260 (17%) underwent cardioversion. 1613 met the inclusion criteria for this analysis. At the time of cardioversion, 283 (17.5%) were receiving a VKA and 1330 (82.5%) a NOAC. A transoesophageal echocardiogram (TOE) was performed in 403 (25%) cardioversions. The incidence of stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA) at 30 days was the same for patients having (3.04 per 100 patient-years) or not having (3.04 per 100 patient-years) a TOE (p=0.99). There were no differences in the incidence of death (HR 1.19, 95% CI 0.62 to 2.28, p=0.61), cardiovascular hospitalisation (HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.35, p=0.91), stroke/TIA (HR 1.18, 95% CI 0.30 to 4.74, p=0.81) or bleeding-related hospitalisation (HR 1.29, 95% CI 0.66 to 2.52, p=0.45) at 1 year for patients treated with either a NOAC or VKA. CONCLUSIONS: Cardioversion was a low-risk procedure for patients treated with NOAC, and there were statistically similar rates of stroke/TIA 30 days after cardioversion as for patients treated with VKA. There were no statically significant differences in death, stroke/TIA or major bleeding at 1 year among patients treated with NOAC compared with VKA after cardioversion.