Epidemiology and Predictors for Cervical Burn Scar Contractures: A Multicenter Cohort Study.

Cervical burn scar contracture (BSC) affects many important neck functions and the patients' quality of life. However, it remains unclear which patients have a higher risk of neck BSCs. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology and identify the independent risks of cervical BSC formation and severity. Clinical and demographic data of 106 patients with burn scars were retrospectively collated and analyzed from 3 different Chinese hospitals between December 2016 and December 2020. Both univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the independent risks for BSC formation and severity at 12 months postburn. Lateral flexion was the most common plane of motion (POM) limited by contractures (29.4%), whereas the POM most commonly limited by severe contractures was the extension (24.6%). Most patients with contractures had those in 3 to 4 POMs (72.1%). Neck skin grafting was an independent risk factor for BSC formation, and cervical and cervicothoracic skin grafting were independent risk factors for BSC severity. These results may help to identify high-risk patients with contractures in the early stages of burns to carry out individualized early prevention and treatment.

Establishment and validation of a nomogram to predict the neck contracture after skin grafting in burn patients: A multicentre cohort study.

Cervical burn contracture is one of the burn contractures with the highest incidence and severity, and there is no effective method to predict the risk of neck contracture. This study aimed to investigate the effect of combined cervicothoracic skin grafting on the risk of neck contracture in burn patients and to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of neck contracture after skin grafting in burn patients. Data from 212 patients with burns who underwent neck skin grafting were collected from three hospitals, and the patients were randomly divided into training and validation sets. Independent predictors were identified through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses and incorporated into a prognostic nomogram. Its performance was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. Burn depth, combined cervicothoracic skin grafting, graft thickness, and neck graft size were significantly associated with neck contractures. In the training cohort, the nomogram had an area under the curve of 0.894. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis indicated good clinical applicability of the nomogram. The results were tested using a validation dataset. Combined cervicothoracic skin grafting is an independent risk factor for neck contracture. Our nomogram demonstrated excellent performance in predicting neck contracture risk.