Derivation and validation of the ED-SAS score for very early prediction of mortality and morbidity with acute pancreatitis: a retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Existing scoring systems to predict mortality in acute pancreatitis may not be directly applicable to the emergency department (ED). The objective of this study was to derive and validate the ED-SAS, a simple scoring score using variables readily available in the ED to predict mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis. METHODS: This retrospective observational study was performed based on patient data collected from electronic health records across 2 independent health systems; 1 was used for the derivation cohort and the other for the validation cohort. Adult patients who were eligible presented to the ED, required hospital admission, and had a confirmed diagnosis of acute pancreatitis. Patients with chronic or recurrent episodes of pancreatitis were excluded. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Analyses tested and derived candidate variables to establish a prediction score, which was subsequently applied to the validation cohort to assess odds ratios for the primary and secondary outcomes. RESULTS: The derivation cohort included 599 patients, and the validation cohort 2011 patients. Thirty-day mortality was 4.2 and 3.9%, respectively. From the derivation cohort, 3 variables were established for use in the predictive scoring score: ≥2 systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria, age > 60 years, and SpO2 < 96%. Summing the presence or absence of each variable yielded an ED-SAS score ranging from 0 to 3. In the validation cohort, the odds of 30-day mortality increased with each subsequent ED-SAS point: 4.4 (95% CI 1.8-10.8) for 1 point, 12.0 (95% CI 4.9-29.4) for 2 points, and 41.7 (95% CI 15.8-110.1) for 3 points (c-statistic = 0.77). CONCLUSION: An ED-SAS score that incorporates SpO2, age, and SIRS measurements, all of which are available in the ED, provides a rapid method for predicting 30-day mortality in acute pancreatitis.

HEART Score and Stress Test Emergency Department Bayesian Decision Scheme: Results from the Acute Care Diagnostic Collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Accurate identification of patients at risk of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) places a substantial burden on emergency physicians (EPs). Bayesian nomogram for risk stratification in low- to intermediate-risk cardiovascular patients has not been investigated previously. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to develop a comparative diagnostic model using Bayesian statistics for exercise treadmill test (ETT) and stress echocardiogram (ECHO) to calculate post-test diagnostic risk of MACE using HEART (history, electrocardiogram, age, risk factors, and troponin) risk score as predictor of pretest probability. METHODS: Stratification was made by applying HEART scores for the prediction of MACE. Likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated using pooled sensitivity and specificity of ETT and ECHO from the American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association systematic review. Post-test probabilities were obtained after inserting HEART score and LR into Bayesian nomogram. Analysis of variance was used to assess statistical association. RESULTS: Positive LR (LR+) for ETT was 4.56 and negative LR (LR-) was 0.27; for ECHO, LR+ 5.65 and LR- 0.15. Bayesian statistical modeling post-test probabilities for LR+ and low HEART risk yielded a post-test probability for ETT of 7.75% and 9.09% for ECHO; intermediate risk gave 47.62% and 52.63%, respectively. For LR-, low HEART risk post-test probability for ETT was 0.46% and for ECHO 0.26%; intermediate risk probabilities were 4.48% and 2.49%, respectively. LR- was statistically significant in ruling out MACE with ECHO (p < 0.001), but no significant differences were seen for LR+ (p = 0.64). CONCLUSIONS: This Bayesian analysis demonstrated slight superiority of stress ECHO over ETT in low- and intermediate-risk patients in ruling out MACE.

Role of heparin during endovascular therapy for acute ischemic stroke.

OBJECTIVES: Systemic heparinization has become the mainstay anticoagulant in neurointerventional procedures to prevent thromboembolic complications. Its benefit during endovascular therapy for acute stroke however has not been established. The purpose of this study is to retrospectively evaluate the impact of heparin during endovascular therapy for acute ischemic stroke (AIS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of our interventional stroke database from February 2009 to September 2012 for patients with anterior circulation AIS with ICA-T or MCA M1 occlusions. 76 patients were categorized into 2 groups: intraprocedural vs. no intraprocedural heparin use. Outcomes measured included reperfusion (modified TICI scale), cerebral hemorrhages (ECASS criteria), and 90-day outcomes (modified Rankin scale). RESULTS: Baseline characteristics were similar between heparin and non-heparin treated patients, except for presence of CAD (6% vs. 30%, p=0.01), Coumadin (0% vs. 11%, p=0.04), and NIHSS (15.6±5.0 vs. 18.1±4.6, p=0.03). There was a nonsignificantly higher reperfusion rate achieved in heparin-treated patients compared to non heparin-treated patients (63% vs. 50%, p=0.35). Patients who received heparin had significantly lower rates of hemorrhage (p=0.02). Multivariate logistic regression for good outcome revealed only age (OR 0.86; 95% CI 0.78-0.95; p<0.01), ASPECTS (OR 2.14; 95% CI 1.01-4.50; p=0.04), and successful reperfusion (OR 19.25; 95% CI 2.37-155.95; p<0.01) independently associated with mRS 0-2 at 90 days. CONCLUSION: The use of intraprocedural heparin in patients with AIS from MCA M1 or ICA-T occlusion was found safe. The impact of heparinization is unclear and warrants further evaluation.