Determinants of private-sector antibiotic consumption in India: findings from a quasi-experimental fixed-effects regression analysis using cross-sectional time-series data, 2011-2019.

The consumption of antibiotics varies between and within countries. However, our understanding of the key drivers of antibiotic consumption is largely limited to observational studies. Using Indian data that showed substantial differences between states and changes over years, we conducted a quasi-experimental fixed-effects regression study to examine the determinants of private-sector antibiotic consumption. Antibiotic consumption decreased by 10.2 antibiotic doses per 1000 persons per year for every ₹1000 (US$12.9) increase in per-capita gross domestic product. Antibiotic consumption decreased by 46.4 doses per 1000 population per year for every 1% increase in girls' enrollment rate in tertiary education. The biggest determinant of private sector antibiotic use was government spending on health-antibiotic use decreased by 461.4 doses per 1000 population per year for every US$12.9 increase in per-capita government health spending. Economic progress, social progress, and increased public investment in health can reduce private-sector antibiotic use.

Antibiotic consumption in India: geographical variations and temporal changes between 2011 and 2019.

Objectives: To describe and compare private sector systemic (J01) antibiotic consumption across Indian states from 2011 to 2019. Methods: We used the nationally representative PharmaTrac dataset to describe the consumption rates in DDD across national, state and state-group [high focus (HF) and non-high focus (nHF)] levels. We used median and IQRs to describe and compare across states and state groups, and relative change and compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to examine temporal changes. Results: The annual consumption rate decreased by 3.6% between 2011 and 2019. The share of Access antibiotics decreased (13.1%) and the Access/Watch ratio declined from 0.59 to 0.49. State consumption rates varied widely (HF states reported lower rates) and the inappropriate use increased over the years, especially among HF states. The HF and nHF states showed convergence in the share of the Access and the Access/Watch ratio, while they showed divergence in the use of Discouraged fixed-dose combinations. Conclusions and implications: India's private-sector antibiotic consumption rate was lower than global rates. The rates varied across states and appropriateness of use decreased in most states over the years. States with an increase in appropriate use over time could serve as best practice examples. Studies to understand the factors affecting inappropriate use are required alongside improved data systems to monitor the public-sector provision of antibiotics to understand the total consumption.

Consumption of systemic antibiotics in India in 2019.

Background: Inappropriate use of antibiotics is a significant driver of antibiotic resistance in India. Largely unrestricted over-the-counter sales of most antibiotics, manufacturing and marketing of many fixed-dose combinations (FDC) and overlap in regulatory powers between national and state-level agencies complicate antibiotics availability, sales, and consumption in the country. Methods: We analyzed cross-sectional data from PharmaTrac, a nationally representative private-sector drug sales dataset gathered from a panel of 9000 stockists across India. We used the AWaRe (Access, Watch, Reserve) classification and the defined daily dose (DDD) metrics to calculate the per capita private-sector consumption of systemic antibiotics across different categories: FDCs vs single formulations; approved vs unapproved; and listed vs not listed in the national list of essential medicines (NLEM). Findings: The total DDDs consumed in 2019 was 5071 million (10.4 DDD/1000/day). Watch contributed 54.9% (2783 million) DDDs, while Access contributed 27.0% (1370 million). Formulations listed in the NLEM contributed 49.0% (2486 million DDDs); FDCs contributed 34.0% (1722 million), and unapproved formulations contributed 47.1% (2408 million DDDs). Watch antibiotics constituted 72.7% (1750 million DDDs) of unapproved products and combinations discouraged by the WHO constituted 48.7% (836 million DDDs) of FDCs. Interpretation: Although the per-capita private-sector consumption rate of antibiotics in India is relatively low compared to many countries, India consumes a large volume of broad-spectrum antibiotics that should ideally be used sparingly. This, together with significant share of FDCs from formulations outside NLEM and a large volume of antibiotics not approved by the central drug regulators, call for significant policy and regulatory reform. Funding: Not applicable.