Cellular Density in Adult Glioma, Estimated with MR Imaging Data and a Machine Learning Algorithm, Has Prognostic Power Approaching World Health Organization Histologic Grading in a Cohort of 1181 Patients.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Recent advances in machine learning have enabled image-based prediction of local tissue pathology in gliomas, but the clinical usefulness of these predictions is unknown. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic ability of imaging-based estimates of cellular density for patients with gliomas, with comparison to the gold standard reference of World Health Organization grading. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from 1181 (207 grade II, 246 grade III, 728 grade IV) previously untreated patients with gliomas from a single institution were analyzed. A pretrained random forest model estimated voxelwise tumor cellularity using MR imaging data. Maximum cellular density was correlated with the World Health Organization grade and actual survival, correcting for covariates of age and performance status. RESULTS: A maximum estimated cellular density of >7681 nuclei/mm2 was associated with a worse prognosis and a univariate hazard ratio of 4.21 (P < .001); the multivariate hazard ratio after adjusting for covariates of age and performance status was 2.91 (P < .001). The concordance index between maximum cellular density (adjusted for covariates) and survival was 0.734. The hazard ratio for a high World Health Organization grade (IV) was 7.57 univariate (P < .001) and 5.25 multivariate (P < .001). The concordance index for World Health Organization grading (adjusted for covariates) was 0.761. The maximum cellular density was an independent predictor of overall survival, and a Cox model using World Health Organization grade, maximum cellular density, age, and Karnofsky performance status had a higher concordance (C = 0.764; range 0.748-0.781) than the component predictors. CONCLUSIONS: Image-based estimation of glioma cellularity is a promising biomarker for predicting survival, approaching the prognostic power of World Health Organization grading, with added values of early availability, low risk, and low cost.

Estimating Local Cellular Density in Glioma Using MR Imaging Data.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Increased cellular density is a hallmark of gliomas, both in the bulk of the tumor and in areas of tumor infiltration into surrounding brain. Altered cellular density causes altered imaging findings, but the degree to which cellular density can be quantitatively estimated from imaging is unknown. The purpose of this study was to discover the best MR imaging and processing techniques to make quantitative and spatially specific estimates of cellular density. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We collected stereotactic biopsies in a prospective imaging clinical trial targeting untreated patients with gliomas at our institution undergoing their first resection. The data included preoperative MR imaging with conventional anatomic, diffusion, perfusion, and permeability sequences and quantitative histopathology on biopsy samples. We then used multiple machine learning methodologies to estimate cellular density using local intensity information from the MR images and quantitative cellular density measurements at the biopsy coordinates as the criterion standard. RESULTS: The random forest methodology estimated cellular density with R 2 = 0.59 between predicted and observed values using 4 input imaging sequences chosen from our full set of imaging data (T2, fractional anisotropy, CBF, and area under the curve from permeability imaging). Limiting input to conventional MR images (T1 pre- and postcontrast, T2, and FLAIR) yielded slightly degraded performance (R2 = 0.52). Outputs were also reported as graphic maps. CONCLUSIONS: Cellular density can be estimated with moderate-to-strong correlations using MR imaging inputs. The random forest machine learning model provided the best estimates. These spatially specific estimates of cellular density will likely be useful in guiding both diagnosis and treatment.

Imaging-Based Algorithm for the Local Grading of Glioma.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Gliomas are highly heterogeneous tumors, and optimal treatment depends on identifying and locating the highest grade disease present. Imaging techniques for doing so are generally not validated against the histopathologic criterion standard. The purpose of this work was to estimate the local glioma grade using a machine learning model trained on preoperative image data and spatially specific tumor samples. The value of imaging in patients with brain tumor can be enhanced if pathologic data can be estimated from imaging input using predictive models. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with gliomas were enrolled in a prospective clinical imaging trial between 2013 and 2016. MR imaging was performed with anatomic, diffusion, permeability, and perfusion sequences, followed by image-guided stereotactic biopsy before resection. An imaging description was developed for each biopsy, and multiclass machine learning models were built to predict the World Health Organization grade. Models were assessed on classification accuracy, Cohen κ, precision, and recall. RESULTS: Twenty-three patients (with 7/9/7 grade II/III/IV gliomas) had analyzable imaging-pathologic pairs, yielding 52 biopsy sites. The random forest method was the best algorithm tested. Tumor grade was predicted at 96% accuracy (κ = 0.93) using 4 inputs (T2, ADC, CBV, and transfer constant from dynamic contrast-enhanced imaging). By means of the conventional imaging only, the overall accuracy decreased (89% overall, κ = 0.79) and 43% of high-grade samples were misclassified as lower-grade disease. CONCLUSIONS: We found that local pathologic grade can be predicted with a high accuracy using clinical imaging data. Advanced imaging data improved this accuracy, adding value to conventional imaging. Confirmatory imaging trials are justified.