Development and validation of a chronic kidney disease progression model using patient-level simulations.

Chronic disease progression models are available for several highly prevalent conditions. For chronic kidney disease (CKD), the scope of existing progression models is limited to the risk of kidney failure and major cardiovascular (CV) events. The aim of this project was to develop a comprehensive CKD progression model (CKD-PM) that simulates the risk of CKD progression and a broad range of complications in patients with CKD. A series of literature reviews informed the selection of risk factors and identified existing risk equations/algorithms for kidney replacement therapy (KRT), CV events, other CKD-related complications, and mortality. Risk equations and transition probabilities were primarily sourced from publications produced by large US and international CKD registries. A patient-level, state-transition model was developed with health states defined by the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes categories. Model validation was performed by comparing predicted outcomes with observed outcomes in the source cohorts used in model development (internal validation) and other cohorts (external validation). The CKD-PM demonstrated satisfactory modeling properties. Accurate prediction of all-cause and CV mortality was achieved without calibration, while prediction of CV events through CKD-specific equations required implementation of a calibration factor to balance time-dependent versus baseline risk. Predicted annual changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-creatinine ratio were acceptable in comparison to external values. A flexible eGFR threshold for KRT equations enabled accurate prediction of these events. This CKD-PM demonstrated reliable modeling properties. Both internal and external validation revealed robust outcomes.

Cost-effectiveness of empagliflozin as add-on to standard of care for chronic kidney disease management in the United Kingdom.

OBJECTIVE: The sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitor empagliflozin was approved for treatment of adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) on the basis of its demonstrated ability to slow CKD progression and reduce the risk of cardiovascular death. This analysis was performed to assess the cost-effectiveness of empagliflozin plus standard of care (SoC) vs SoC alone in the treatment of CKD in the UK. METHODS: A comprehensive, patient-level CKD progression model that simulates the evolution of risk factors for disease progression based on CKD-specific equations and clinical data was used to project a broad range of CKD-related complications. Patient baseline characteristics, distribution across Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) health states, and changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), urine albumin-creatinine ratio (uACR), and other parameters while on treatment were derived from the EMPA-KIDNEY trial. UK cost and utilities/disutilities were sourced from the literature. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Annual discounting of 3.5% was applied on costs and outcomes. RESULTS: Over a 50-year horizon, SoC resulted in per-patient costs, life years, and QALYs of £95,930, 8.55, and 6.28, respectively. Empagliflozin plus SoC resulted in an incremental gain in life years (+1.04) and QALYs (+0.84), while decreasing per-patient costs by £6,019. Empagliflozin was more effective and less costly (dominant) with a net monetary benefit of £22,849 at the willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000. Although treatment cost was higher for empagliflozin, this was more than offset by savings in kidney replacement therapy. Empagliflozin remained highly cost-effective in patients with and without diabetes, and across scenario and sensitivity analyses. LIMITATIONS: This analysis is limited by reliance on short-term clinical trial data and by uncertainties in modelling CKD progression. CONCLUSIONS: Empagliflozin as an add-on to SoC for treatment of adults with CKD represents cost-effective use of UK National Health Service (NHS) resources.

The cost-effectiveness of a bimekizumab versus IL-17A inhibitors treatment-pathway in patients with active axial spondyloarthritis in Scotland.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a treatment-pathway initiated with bimekizumab, a monoclonal IgG1 antibody that selectively inhibits interleukin (IL)-17F and IL-17A, in patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) compared with IL-17Ai's, ixekizumab, and secukinumab, from the NHS Scotland perspective. METHODS: The axSpA treatment-pathway was modeled using a decision tree followed by a lifetime Markov model. The pathway included first- and second-line biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARD), followed by best supportive care (bDMARD, nonbiologic). Bimekizumab followed by any bDMARD ("BKZ") was compared with IL-17Ai's: secukinumab 150 mg followed by a blend ("SEC") of dose up-titration to secukinumab 300 mg and any bDMARD, or ixekizumab followed by any bDMARD ("IXE"). Transition to the next therapy was triggered by Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index-50% (BASDAI50) non-response or any-cause discontinuation. A published network meta-analysis provided efficacy data. EuroQoL-5-dimensions utilities were derived by mapping from Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score. Costs included disease management (linked to functional limitations), biologics acquisition (list prices), administration and monitoring (NHS 2021/22). Discounting was 3.5%/year. Probabilistic results from patients with non-radiographic axSpA and ankylosing spondylitis were averaged to reflect the axSpA disease spectrum. Scenario and sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of BKZ was £24,801/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) vs. SEC (95% credible interval £24,163-£25,895). BKZ had similar costs (Δ -£385 [-£15,239-£14,468]) and QALYs (Δ 0.039 [-0.748-0.825]) to IXE, with £1,523 (£862-£2,222) net monetary benefit. Conclusions remained unchanged in most scenarios. Results' drivers included BASDAI50 response rate and disease management cost. LIMITATIONS: Results were based on list prices. Data concerning up-titration to secukinumab 300 mg was scarce. CONCLUSIONS: The bimekizumab treatment-pathway represents a cost-effective option across the axSpA disease spectrum in Scotland. Bimekizumab is cost-effective compared to a secukinumab-pathway that includes dose up-titration, and has similar costs and QALYs to an ixekizumab-pathway.

Cost-effectiveness of encorafenib with binimetinib in unresectable or metastatic BRAF-mutant melanoma.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of encorafenib with binimetinib (EncoBini) as compared to other targeted double combination therapies, namely dabrafenib with trametinib (DabraTrame) and vemurafenib with cobimetinib (VemuCobi), for the treatment of BRAF V600-mutant unresectable or metastatic melanoma (MM) from the French payer perspective. METHODS: A partitioned survival model was developed considering a lifetime horizon. The model structure simulated the clinical pathway of patients with BRAF V600-mutant MM. Clinical effectiveness and safety inputs were sourced from the COLUMBUS trial, a network meta-analysis and published literature. Costs, resource use, and the quality of life inputs were obtained from the literature and appropriate French sources. RESULTS: Over a lifetime horizon, EncoBini was associated, on average, with reduced costs and increased quality adjusted life years (QALYs), dominating both targeted double combination therapies. For a willingness-to-pay threshold of €90,000 per QALY, the probability of EncoBini being cost-effective against either comparator remained above 80%. The most influential model parameters were the hazard ratios for the overall survival of EncoBini vs DabraTrame and VemuCobi, the pre- and post-progression utility values, as well as treatment dosages and the relative dose intensity of all interventions. CONCLUSION: EncoBini is associated with reduced costs and increased QALYs, dominating other targeted double combination therapies (DabraTrame, VemuCobi) for patients with BRAF V600-mutant MM in France. EncoBini is a highly cost-effective intervention in MM.

An Observational Real-Life Study with a New Infant Formula in Infants with Functional Gastro-Intestinal Disorders.

Functional gastro-intestinal disorders (FGIDs) impair the quality of life of many infants and their families. A formula with partial whey hydrolysate, starch, high magnesium content, prebiotic fructo-oligosaccharide and galacto-oligosaccharide and the probiotic Lactobacillus reuteri DSM 17938 was given during two weeks to 196 infants with at least two FGIDs. The efficacy was evaluated with the Cow Milk-associated Symptom Score (CoMiSS®) and quality of life with the QUALIN score. The formula was shown to decrease FGIDs within three days (decrease of CoMiSS -1.29 (3.15) (mean (SD), p < 0.0001) followed by an improvement of quality of life after seven days (increase QUALIN +1.4 (7.8); p: 0.008). Constipation decreased from 18.8% to 6.5% within three days. In combination with reassurance and guidance, the nutritional intervention was shown to be effective in infants with FGIDS in real-life circumstances.

Cost-effectiveness of the cell-based quadrivalent versus the standard egg-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Standard influenza vaccines are produced using egg-based manufacturing methods. Through the process, the resulting egg-adapted viral strains may differ from the selected vaccine strain. Cell-derived influenza vaccine manufacturing prevents egg-adaptation of the antigen which can improve vaccine effectiveness. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent cell-derived influenza vaccine (QIVc) versus an egg-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIVe) in preventing seasonal influenza from German societal and payer perspectives. METHODS: Adapted version of the individual-based dynamic 4Flu transmission model was combined with a decision-tree to calculate the impact of QIVc versus QIVe on influenza over 20 seasons in Germany. Egg-adaptation, resulting in lower effectiveness of QIVe versus QIVc towards the H3N2 influenza strain, is sourced from a US retrospective study and assumed in 100% (base case) or 55% (conservative scenario) of years. Influenza-related probabilities of outpatient visits, hospitalizations, productivity loss, and mortality, with associated (dis)utilities/costs, were extracted from literature. Costs and outcomes were discounted 3.0%/year. RESULTS: Replacing QIVe with QIVc in subjects aged ≥ 9 years can annually prevent 167,265 symptomatic cases, 51,114 outpatient visits, 2,091 hospitalizations, and 103 deaths in Germany. The annual number of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) increased by 1,628 and healthcare costs decreased by €178 M from societal perspective. From payer perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €2,285 per QALY. Scenario analyses confirmed results robustness. CONCLUSIONS: The use of QIVc compared to QIVe, in the German Immunization Program, could significantly prevent outpatient visits and hospitalizations and would enable substantial savings from a societal perspective.

Patient and caregiver productivity loss and indirect costs associated with cardiovascular events in Portugal.

OBJECTIVES: To present the Portuguese results of a multi-country cross-sectional survey aiming to estimate productivity loss in the first year after an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or stroke. METHODS: Patients previously hospitalized for ACS or stroke were enrolled during a routine cardiology/neurology visit 3-12 months after the index event and ≥4 weeks after returning to work. Productivity loss for the patient and the caregiver in the previous four weeks were reported by the patient using the validated iMTA Productivity Cost Questionnaire (iPCQ). Hours lost were converted into eight-hour work days and prorated to one year, combined with initial hospitalization and sick leave, and valued according to Portuguese labor costs. RESULTS: The analysis included 39 employed patients with ACS (mean age 51 years, 80% men, 95% with myocardial infarction, mean left ventricular ejection fraction 55%) and 31 with stroke (mean age 50 years, 80% men, all ischemic, 77% with modified Rankin Scale 0-1); 41% of ACS and 10% of stroke patients had a history of cardiovascular disease. Mean (SD) productivity loss for patients and caregivers was 47 (62) work days for ACS and 76 (101) work days for stroke. ACS patients lost 37 (39) and caregivers lost 10 (42) work days. Stroke patients and caregivers lost 65 (78) and 12 (38) work days, respectively. Total mean indirect cost per case was €5403 (€7095) and €8726 (€11558) for employed patients with ACS and stroke, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The annual proportions of productive time lost by employed patients due to ACS and stroke in Portugal were 17% and 27%, respectively. Caregivers of these patients lost about 5% of their annual productive time.

Patient and caregiver productivity loss and indirect costs associated with cardiovascular events in Europe.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to estimate patient and caregiver productivity loss and indirect costs following an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or a stroke in Europe. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in seven European countries. A validated questionnaire was used during a cardiologist/neurologist visit 3-12 months post event. We included patients who returned to work ( ≥ 4 weeks prior to recruitment), given specific interest in presenteeism. Patient absenteeism, presenteeism and caregiver loss in the past four weeks were pro-rated to one year and combined with time-off due to initial hospitalisation/sick-leave. Hours lost were valued according to country labour cost (2018 euros). RESULTS: The analysis included 196 ACS (86% myocardial infarction) and 198 stroke (99% ischaemic, 77% modified Rankin Scale 0-1) patients. Mean age in ACS and stroke patients was 53 years, 86% and 78% respectively were men, 28% and 25% had previous cardiovascular event or established cardiovascular disease. Mean (country range) total productivity time loss was 70 (47-91) workdays for ACS and 68 (45-88) workdays for stroke (25% of annual workdays). Particularly, ACS patient lost 59 (37-79) workdays, and caregivers lost 11 (0-16) workdays, with total mean indirect cost per case €13,953 (€6641-23,160). After stroke, 56 (42-70) workdays were lost by patient plus 12 (3-20) days by caregiver, amounting to €13,773 (€10,469-20,215). Patients with previous events or established cardiovascular disease lost 80 (ACS) and 73 (stroke) workdays, costing €16,061 and €14,942 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that lost productive time and indirect costs following ACS/stroke are substantial, with indirect costs comparable to direct costs.

Cost-effectiveness of physical activity in the management of COPD patients in the UK.

BACKGROUND: While the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) guidelines advise exercise to reduce disease progression, little investment in promoting physical activity (PA) is made by health care authorities. The purpose of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of regular PA vs sedentary lifestyle in people with COPD in the UK. METHODS: Efficacy, quality of life, and economic evidence on the PA effects in COPD patients were retrieved from literature to serve as input for a Markov microsimulation model comparing a COPD population performing PA vs a COPD population with sedentary lifestyle. The GOLD classification defined the model health states. For the base case, the cost of PA was estimated at zero, a lifetime horizon was used, and costs and effects were discounted at 3.5%. Analyses were performed from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. Uncertainty around inputs and assumptions were explored via scenario and sensitivity analyses, including a cost threshold analysis. Outcomes were cost/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and cost/year gained. RESULTS: Based on our model, the effects of PA in the UK COPD population would be lower mortality (-6%), fewer hospitalizations (-2%), gains in years (+0.82) and QALYs (+0.66), and total cost savings of £2,568. The cost/QALY and cost/year gained were dominant. PA was cost-saving at costs <£35/month and cost-effective at cost <£202/month. The main model drivers were age and PA impact on death and hospital-treated exacerbations. CONCLUSION: Including PA in the management of COPD leads to long-term clinical benefits. If the NHS promotes only exercise via medical advice, this would lead to health care cost savings. If the NHS chose to fund PA, it would still likely be cost-effective.

Direct and indirect effects of influenza vaccination.

BACKGROUND: After vaccination, vaccinees acquire some protection against infection and/or disease. Vaccination, therefore, reduces the number of infections in the population. Due to this herd protection, not everybody needs to be vaccinated to prevent infections from spreading. METHODS: We quantify direct and indirect effects of influenza vaccination examining the standard Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model as well as simulation results of a sophisticated simulation tool which allows for seasonal transmission of four influenza strains in a population with realistic demography and age-dependent contact patterns. RESULTS: As shown analytically for the simple SIR and SIRS transmission models, indirect vaccination effects are bigger than direct ones if the effective reproduction number of disease transmission is close to the critical value of 1. Simulation results for 20-60% vaccination with live influenza vaccine of 2-17 year old children in Germany, averaged over 10 years (2017-26), confirm this result: four to seven times as many influenza cases are prevented among non-vaccinated individuals as among vaccinees. For complications like death due to influenza which occur much more frequently in the unvaccinated elderly than in the vaccination target group of children, indirect benefits can surpass direct ones by a factor of 20 or even more than 30. CONCLUSIONS: The true effect of vaccination can be much bigger than what would be expected by only looking at vaccination coverage and vaccine efficacy.

Direct and Indirect Protection with Pediatric Quadrivalent Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccination in Europe Estimated by a Dynamic Transmission Model.

Objectives: To estimate the public health impact of annual vaccination of children with a quadrivalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) across Europe. Methods: A deterministic, age-structured, dynamic model was used to simulate influenza transmission across 14 European countries, comparing current vaccination coverage using a quadrivalent inactivated vaccine (QIV) to a scenario whereby vaccination coverage was extended to 50% of 2-17 year-old children, using QLAIV. Differential equations described demographic changes, exposure to infectious individuals, recovery and immunity dynamics. For each country, the basic reproduction number (R0) was calibrated to published influenza incidence statistics. Assumed vaccine efficacy for children was 80% (QLAIV) and 59% (QIV). Symptomatic cases cumulated over 10 years were calculated per 100 000 person-years. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted on QLAIV efficacy in 7-17 year-olds (59% instead of 80%), durations of natural (±3 years; base case: 6, 12 years for influenza A, B respectively) and QLAIV vaccine-induced immunity (100% immunity loss after 1 season; base case: 30%), and R0 (+/-10% around all-year average value). Results: Across countries, annual QLAIV vaccination additionally prevents 1366-3604 symptomatic cases per 100 000 population (average 2495 /100 000, ie, a reduction of 47.6% of the cases which occur in the reference scenario with QIV vaccination only). Among children (2-17 years), QLAIV prevents 551-1555 cases per 100 000 population (average 990 /100 000, ie, 67.2% of current cases). Among adults, QLAIV indirectly prevents 726-2047 cases per 100 000 population (average 1466 /100 000, ie, 40.0% of current cases). The most impactful drivers of total protection were duration of natural immunity against influenza A, R0 and QLAIV immunity duration and efficacy. In all evaluated scenarios, there was a large direct and even larger indirect protection compared with the reference scenario. Conclusions: The model highlights direct and indirect protection benefits when vaccinating healthy children with QLAIV in Europe, across a range of demographic structures, contact patterns and vaccination coverage rates.

Translation of the UK Pediatric Influenza Vaccination Programme in Primary Schools to 13 European Countries Using a Dynamic Transmission Model.

Objectives: To simulate the impact of a pediatric influenza vaccination programme using quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) in Europe by applying coverage rates achieved in the United Kingdom during the 2014-2015 season and to compare the model outcomes to the UK results. Methods: We used a deterministic, age-structured, dynamic transmission model adapted to the demography, contact patterns and influenza incidence of 13 European countries, with a 10-year horizon. The reference strategy was the unchanged country-specific coverage rate, using quadrivalent inactivated vaccine (assumed efficacy against infection from 45% in 1-year-old children to 60% in healthy adults). In the evaluated strategy, 56.8% of 5-10-year-old children were additionally vaccinated with QLAIV (assumed efficacy 80%), as was the case in 2014-2015 in the United Kingdom's primary school pilot areas. Symptomatic influenza cases and associated medical resources (primary care consultations [PCC], hospitalization, intensive care unit [ICU] admissions) were calculated. The evaluated versus reference strategies were compared using odds ratios (ORs) for PCC in the target (aged 5-10-years) and non-target adult (aged >17 years) populations as well as number needed to vaccinate (NNV) with QLAIV to avert one PCC, hospitalization or ICU admission. Model outcomes, averaged over 10 seasons, were compared with published real-life data from the United Kingdom for the 2014-2015 season. Results: Over 13 countries and 10 years, the evaluated strategy prevented 32.8 million of symptomatic influenza cases (172.3 vs 205.2 million). The resulting range of ORs for PCC was 0.18-0.48 among children aged 5-10-years, and the published OR in the United Kingdom was 0.06 (95% confidence interval [0.01; 0.62]). In adults, the range of ORs for PCC was 0.60-0.91 (UK OR=0.41 [0.19; 0.86]). NNV ranges were 6-19 per averted PCC (UK NNV=16), 530-1524 per averted hospitalization (UK NNV=317) and 5298-15 241 per averted ICU admission (UK NNV=2205). Conclusions: Across a range of European countries, our model shows the beneficial direct and indirect impact of a paediatric vaccination programme using QLAIV in primary school-aged children, consistent with what was observed during a single season in the United Kingdom. Recommendations for the implementation of pediatric vaccination programmes are, therefore, supported in Europe.

The Clinical and Economic Impact of Probiotics Consumption on Respiratory Tract Infections: Projections for Canada.

INTRODUCTION: There is accumulating evidence supporting the use of probiotics, which are defined as "live micro-organisms which, when administered in adequate amounts, confer a health benefit on the host", as a preventive measure against respiratory tract infections (RTI). Two recent meta-analyses showed probiotic consumption (daily intake of 107 to 1010 CFU in any form for up to 3 months) significantly reduced RTI duration, frequency, antibiotic use and work absenteeism. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess the impact of probiotic use in terms of number of RTI episodes and days averted, and the number of antibiotic prescriptions and missed workdays averted, in the general population of Canada. In addition, the corresponding economic impact from both a healthcare payer and a productivity perspective was estimated. METHODS: A microsimulation model was developed to reproduce the Canadian population (sample rate of 1/1000 = 35 540 individuals) employing age and gender. RTI incidence was taken from FluWatch consultation rates for influenza-like illness (2013-14) and StatCan all-cause consultations statistics. The model was calibrated on a 2.1% RTI annual incidence in the general population (5.2 million RTI days) and included known risk factors (smoking status, shared living conditions and vaccination status). RTI-related antibiotic prescriptions and work absenteeism were obtained from the literature. RESULTS: The results indicate that probiotic use saved 573 000-2.3 million RTI-days, according to the YHEC-Cochrane scenarios respectively. These reductions were associated with an avoidance of 52 000-84 000 antibiotic courses and 330 000-500 000 sick-leave days. A projection of corresponding costs reductions amounted to Can$1.3-8.9 million from the healthcare payer perspective and Can$61.2-99.7 million when adding productivity losses. CONCLUSION: The analysis shows that the potential of probiotics to reduce RTI-related events may have a substantial clinical and economic impact in Canada.

Estimates of the Public Health Impact of a Pediatric Vaccination Program Using an Intranasal Tetravalent Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccine in Belgium.

OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to estimate the public health outcomes of vaccinating Belgian children using an intranasal tetravalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) combined with current coverage of high-risk/elderly individuals using the trivalent inactivated vaccine. METHODS: We used a deterministic, age-structured, dynamic model to simulate seasonal influenza transmission in the Belgian population under the current coverage or after extending vaccination with QLAIV to healthy children aged 2-17 years. Differential equations describe demographic changes, exposure to infectious individuals, infection recovery, and immunity dynamics. The basic reproduction number (R 0) was calibrated to the observed number of influenza doctor visits/year. Vaccine efficacy was 80 % (live-attenuated) and 59-68 % (inactivated). The 10-year incidence of symptomatic influenza was calculated with different coverage scenarios (add-on to current coverage). RESULTS: Model calibration yielded R 0 = 1.1. QLAIV coverage of 75 % of those aged 2-17 years averted 374,000 symptomatic cases/year (57 % of the current number), 244,000 of which were among adults (indirect effect). Vaccinating 75 % of those aged 2-11 years and 50 % of those aged 12-17 years averted 333,200 cases/year (213,000 adult cases/year). Vaccinating only healthy children aged 2-5 years generated direct protection but limited indirect protection, even with 90 % coverage (40,800 averted adult cases/year; -8.4 %). Targeting all children averted twice as many high-risk cases as targeting high-risk children only (8485 vs. 4965/year with 75 % coverage). Sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of results. CONCLUSIONS: The model highlights the direct and indirect protection benefits when vaccinating healthy children with QLAIV in Belgium. Policies targeting only high-risk individuals or the youngest provide limited herd protection, as school-age children are important influenza vectors in the community.

Public health and budget impact of probiotics on common respiratory tract infections: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: Two recent meta-analyses by the York Health Economics Consortium (YHEC) and Cochrane demonstrated probiotic efficacy in reducing the duration and number of common respiratory tract infections (CRTI) and associated antibiotic prescriptions. A health-economic analysis was undertaken to estimate the public health and budget consequences of a generalized probiotic consumption in France. METHODS: A virtual age- and gender-standardized population was generated using a Markov microsimulation model. CRTI risk factors incorporated into this model were age, active/passive smoking and living in a community setting. Incidence rates and resource utilization were based on the 2011-2012 flu season and retrieved from the French GPs Sentinelles network. Results of both meta-analyses were independently applied to the French population to estimate CRTI events, assuming a generalized probiotic use compared to no probiotics during winter months: -0.77 days/CRTI episode (YHEC scenario) or odds-ratio 0.58 for ≥1 CRTI episode (Cochrane scenario) with vs. without probiotics. Economic perspectives were National Health System (NHS), society, family. Outcomes included cost savings related to the reduced numbers of CRTI episodes, days of illness, number of antibiotic courses, sick leave days, medical and indirect costs. RESULTS: For France, generalized probiotic use would save 2.4 million CRTI-days, 291,000 antibiotic courses and 581,000 sick leave days, based on YHEC data. Applying the Cochrane data, reductions were 6.6 million CRTI days, 473,000 antibiotic courses and 1.5 million sick days. From the NHS perspective, probiotics' economic impact was about €14.6 million saved according to YHEC and €37.7 million according to Cochrane. Higher savings were observed in children, active smokers and people with more frequent human contacts. CONCLUSIONS: Public health and budget impact of probiotics are substantial, whether they reduce CRTI episodes frequency or duration. Noteworthy, the 2011-12 winter CRTI incidence was low and this analysis focused on the fraction of CRTI patients consulting a practitioner.

Improvement in glaucoma patient quality of life by therapy switch to preservative-free timolol/dorzolamide fixed combination.

PURPOSE: To assess a change in visual-related quality of life (QoL) in glaucoma patients after switching from preservative-containing medical therapy to preservative-free unit dose timolol/dorzolamide fixed combination (TDFC UD). METHODS: Prospective, noninterventional, multicenter 8-week study. Primary outcome was a change in visual symptoms at week 8, as assessed by the Glaucoma Symptom Scale (GSS). RESULTS: 80 patients completed the study. There was a clinically significant increase in the scores of all GSS-related categories at week 8 when compared to baseline (GSS symptom week 8: +21.15 ± 37.9%, GSS function week 8: +10.3 ± 31.6%, both p < 0.001 vs. baseline). Comparison between patients taking only TDFC UD and patients taking TDFC UD plus concomitant medications did not detect differences in any GSS category (p > 0.50 in all comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: Switching to TDFC UD significantly improved the self-reported QoL of glaucoma patients. This can be seen even in patients who are taking concomitant ocular treatments.

The use of chemotherapy regimens carrying a moderate or high risk of febrile neutropenia and the corresponding management of febrile neutropenia: an expert survey in breast cancer and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

BACKGROUND: The use of chemotherapy regimens with moderate or high risk of febrile neutropenia (defined as having a FN incidence of 10% or more) and the respective incidence and clinical management of FN in breast cancer and NHL has not been studied in Belgium. The existence of a medical need for G-CSF primary and secondary prophylaxis with these regimens was investigated in a real-life setting. METHODS: Nine oncologists and six hematologists from different Belgian general hospitals and university centers were surveyed to collect expert opinion and real-life data (year 2007) on the use of chemotherapy regimens with moderate or high risk of febrile neutropenia and the clinical management of FN in patients aged <65 years with breast cancer or NHL. Data were retrospectively obtained, over a 6-month observation period. RESULTS: The most frequently used regimens in breast cancer patients (n = 161) were FEC (45%), FEC-T (37%) and docetaxel alone (6%). In NHL patients (n = 39), R-CHOP-21 (33%) and R-ACVBP-14 (15%) were mainly used. Without G-CSF primary prophylaxis (PP), FN occurred in 31% of breast cancer patients, and 13% had PSN. After G-CSF secondary prophylaxis (SP), 4% experienced further FN events. Only 1 breast cancer patient received PP, and did not experience a severe neutropenic event. Overall, 30% of chemotherapy cycles observed in breast cancer patients were protected by PP/SP. In 10 NHL patients receiving PP, 2 (20%) developed FN, whereas 13 (45%) of the 29 patients without PP developed FN and 3 (10%) PSN. Overall, 55% of chemotherapy cycles observed in NHL patients were protected by PP/SP. Impaired chemotherapy delivery (timing and/or dose) was reported in 40% (breast cancer) and 38% (NHL) of patients developing FN. Based on oncologist expert opinion, hospitalization rates for FN (average length of stay) without and with PP were, respectively, 48% (4.2 days) and 19% (1.5 days). Similar rates were obtained from hematologists. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the studied chemotherapy regimens being known to be associated with a moderate or high risk of FN, upfront G-CSF prophylaxis was rarely used. The observed incidence of severe neutropenic events without G-CSF prophylaxis was higher than generally reported in the literature. The impact on medical resources used is sizeable.

The cost utility of autologous chondrocytes implantation using ChondroCelect® in symptomatic knee cartilage lesions in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: Knee cartilage lesions increase the risk of developing osteoarthritis (OA), and may eventually result in a total knee replacement (TKR). There is currently no consensus on the optimal treatment of cartilage lesions. ChondroCelect® (CC) is a cell-based therapy approved for use in autologous chondrocytes implantation (ACI) to treat symptomatic cartilage defects of the femoral condyle. Its capacity to safely restore good-quality cartilage was demonstrated in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) versus the surgical procedure microfracture (MFX). OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the cost utility of CC used in ACI compared with MFX to treat symptomatic knee cartilage lesions in Belgium. METHODS: A decision tree model comparing CC with MFX over a 40-year horizon was developed in TreeAge Pro™. The key timepoints of the model were (i) clinical assessment 5 years after initial intervention (success or no success, with or without re-operation); (ii) development of OA at 15 years (yes/no); (iii) need for TKR at 20 years (yes/no); and (iv) need for prosthesis revision at 35 years (yes/no). Clinical data provided by the RCT of CC versus MFX were the clinical success (response) rate based on the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) at 36 months (82.9% vs 62.0%; p = 0.048) and the proportion of good structural repair/presence of hyaline cartilage based on International Cartilage Repair Society (ICRS II) visual item at 12 months (44.9% vs 23.2%; p = 0.023). Utility scores by surgery outcome were derived from the SF-36 questionnaire responses collected in the RCT. Conservative assumptions related to the incidences of OA, TKR and prosthesis revision relied on a literature search. A patient chart review (n = 82) provided follow-up costs by surgery outcome. National tariffs were applied to direct medical resources used (healthcare payer perspective, year 2008 costs). Annual discounting was applied to costs (3%) and effects (1.5%) as recommended by the Belgian pharmacoeconomic guidelines. RESULTS: The incremental cost per QALY gained for CC compared with MFX was €16,229, with a difference in costs of €20,802 and 1.282 QALYs gained. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the key model drivers were the proportion of patients with hyaline cartilage and the correlation between hyaline cartilage formation and later avoidance of OA. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed robustness of the results, with 80% of the simulations below the usual UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) threshold of €22,000 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Assuming a good correlation between high-quality cartilage repair and avoidance of OA at a later stage, the benefits of the cell therapy CC over MFX in terms of QALYs gained and OA-related costs avoided appear real. Further research is required to explore long-term effects of cartilage repair and reduce uncertainty on quality of life of patients with OA before and after joint replacement.

Validity, reliability, and responsiveness of the work productivity and activity impairment questionnaire in Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease usually diagnosed in early adult life and characterized by unpredictable flares and debilitating symptoms such as diarrhea, abdominal pain, and fever, which can interfere with a patient's ability to work and perform daily activities. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the validity, reliability, and responsiveness of the Work Productivity and Activity Impairment questionnaire in CD (WPAI:CD). METHODS: The WPAI:CD was tested in CD patients enrolled in a 26-week randomized clinical trial of cer-tolizumab pegol versus placebo. Discriminative validity of WPAI:CD absenteeism, presenteeism(reduced on-the-job effectiveness), overall work productivity loss (absenteeism + presenteeism), and activity impairment scores was assessed relative to 5 measures of disease severity and health status: CD Activity Index (CDAI), Short Form-36 physical component summary (PCS) and mental health component summary (MCS) scores, Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire (IBDQ), and the 5-dimensional EuroQoL health-related quality-of-life visual analog scale (EQ-VAS). Responsiveness was assessed by comparing changes in WPAI:CD scores from baseline to week 26 for patients in remission (CDAI <150 points) versus no remission. Standardized Response Means (SRMs) were calculated to evaluate the magnitude of the changes. RESULTS: A total of 662 patients (mean [range] age, 37.4 [18-77] years; male, 288 [43.5%]; white, 629 [95.0%]) were enrolled in the study. Patients with CD of the worst severity (CDAI > median) showed significantly higher impairment in work (+10.5%) and activities (+10.4%) versus patients with "best health" (no problems) (both, P < or = 0.001). Patients with "worst" IBDQ, PCS, MCS, and EQ-VAS scores also showed significantly higher impairments in work (IBDQ, VAS -24.2%; PCS, -24.1%; MCS, -15.9%; EQ-VAS, -16.5%) and activities (IBDQ, -23.3%; PCS, -21.8%; MCS, -16.5%; EQ-VAS, -17.2%) versus "best" scores (all, P < 0.05). There were significant differences between WPAI:CD impairment scores for patients in remission versus patients failing to achieve remission (P < 0.05). SRMs were small (ie, <0.5) in the nonre-mission group, and moderate to large (ie, >0.5) for patients in remission. CONCLUSIONS: The discriminative validity, reliability, and responsiveness of the WPAI:CD were demonstrated. The WPAI:CD may be useful for evaluating drug impact on CD.