Permafrost slows Arctic riverbank erosion.

The rate of river migration affects the stability of Arctic infrastructure and communities1,2 and regulates the fluxes of carbon3,4, nutrients5 and sediment6,7 to the oceans. However, predicting how the pace of river migration will change in a warming Arctic8 has so far been stymied by conflicting observations about whether permafrost9 primarily acts to slow10,11 or accelerate12,13 river migration. Here we develop new computational methods that enable the detection of riverbank erosion at length scales 5-10 times smaller than the pixel size in satellite imagery, an innovation that unlocks the ability to quantify erosion at the sub-monthly timescales when rivers undergo their largest variations in water temperature and flow. We use these high-frequency observations to constrain the extent to which erosion is limited by the thermal condition of melting the pore ice that cements bank sediment14, a requirement that will disappear when permafrost thaws, versus the mechanical condition of having sufficient flow to transport the sediment comprising the riverbanks, a condition experienced by all rivers15. Analysis of high-resolution data from the Koyukuk River, Alaska, shows that the presence of permafrost reduces erosion rates by 47%. Using our observations, we calibrate and validate a numerical model that can be applied to diverse Arctic rivers. The model predicts that full permafrost thaw may lead to a 30-100% increase in the migration rates of Arctic rivers.

The origin of carbonate mud and implications for global climate.

Carbonate mud represents one of the most important geochemical archives for reconstructing ancient climatic, environmental, and evolutionary change from the rock record. Mud also represents a major sink in the global carbon cycle. Yet, there remains no consensus about how and where carbonate mud is formed. Here, we present stable isotope and trace-element data from carbonate constituents in the Bahamas, including ooids, corals, foraminifera, and algae. We use geochemical fingerprinting to demonstrate that carbonate mud cannot be sourced from the abrasion and mixture of any combination of these macroscopic grains. Instead, an inverse Bayesian mixing model requires the presence of an additional aragonite source. We posit that this source represents a direct seawater precipitate. We use geological and geochemical data to show that "whitings" are unlikely to be the dominant source of this precipitate and, instead, present a model for mud precipitation on the bank margins that can explain the geographical distribution, clumped-isotope thermometry, and stable isotope signature of carbonate mud. Next, we address the enigma of why mud and ooids are so abundant in the Bahamas, yet so rare in the rest of the world: Mediterranean outflow feeds the Bahamas with the most alkaline waters in the modern ocean (>99.7th-percentile). Such high alkalinity appears to be a prerequisite for the nonskeletal carbonate factory because, when Mediterranean outflow was reduced in the Miocene, Bahamian carbonate export ceased for 3-million-years. Finally, we show how shutting off and turning on the shallow carbonate factory can send ripples through the global climate system.

Stable carbon isotope values of syndepositional carbonate spherules and micrite record spatial and temporal changes in photosynthesis intensity.

Marine and lacustrine carbonate minerals preserve carbon cycle information, and their stable carbon isotope values (δ13 C) are frequently used to infer and reconstruct paleoenvironmental changes. However, multiple processes can influence the δ13 C values of bulk carbonates, confounding the interpretation of these values in terms of conditions at the time of mineral precipitation. Co-existing carbonate forms may represent different environmental conditions, yet few studies have analyzed δ13 C values of syndepositional carbonate grains of varying morphologies to investigate their origins. Here, we combine stable isotope analyses, metagenomics, and geochemical modeling to interpret δ13 C values of syndepositional carbonate spherules (>500 µm) and fine-grained micrite (<63 µm) from a ~1600-year-long sediment record of a hypersaline lake located on the coral atoll of Kiritimati, Republic of Kiribati (1.9°N, 157.4°W). Petrographic, mineralogic, and stable isotope results suggest that both carbonate fractions precipitate in situ with minor diagenetic alterations. The δ13 C values of spherules are high compared to the syndepositional micrite and cannot be explained by mineral differences or external perturbations, suggesting a role for local biological processes. We use geochemical modeling to test the hypothesis that the spherules form in the surface microbial mat during peak diurnal photosynthesis when the δ13 C value of dissolved inorganic carbon is elevated. In contrast, we hypothesize that the micrite may precipitate more continuously in the water as well as in sub-surface, heterotrophic layers of the microbial mat. Both metagenome and geochemical model results support a critical role for photosynthesis in influencing carbonate δ13 C values. The down-core spherule-micrite offset in δ13 C values also aligns with total organic carbon values, suggesting that the difference in the δ13 C values of spherules and micrite may be a more robust, inorganic indicator of variability in productivity and local biological processes through time than the δ13 C values of individual carbonate forms.

Historical glacier change on Svalbard predicts doubling of mass loss by 2100.

The melting of glaciers and ice caps accounts for about one-third of current sea-level rise1-3, exceeding the mass loss from the more voluminous Greenland or Antarctic Ice Sheets3,4. The Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, which hosts spatial climate gradients that are larger than the expected temporal climate shifts over the next century5,6, is a natural laboratory to constrain the climate sensitivity of glaciers and predict their response to future warming. Here we link historical and modern glacier observations to predict that twenty-first century glacier thinning rates will more than double those from 1936 to 2010. Making use of an archive of historical aerial imagery7 from 1936 and 1938, we use structure-from-motion photogrammetry to reconstruct the three-dimensional geometry of 1,594 glaciers across Svalbard. We compare these reconstructions to modern ice elevation data to derive the spatial pattern of mass balance over a more than 70-year timespan, enabling us to see through the noise of annual and decadal variability to quantify how variables such as temperature and precipitation control ice loss. We find a robust temperature dependence of melt rates, whereby a 1 °C rise in mean summer temperature corresponds to a decrease in area-normalized mass balance of -0.28 m yr-1 of water equivalent. Finally, we design a space-for-time substitution8 to combine our historical glacier observations with climate projections and make first-order predictions of twenty-first century glacier change across Svalbard.

A diurnal carbon engine explains 13C-enriched carbonates without increasing the global production of oxygen.

In the past 3 billion years, significant volumes of carbonate with high carbon-isotopic ([Formula: see text]C) values accumulated on shallow continental shelves. These deposits frequently are interpreted as records of elevated global organic carbon burial. However, through the stoichiometry of primary production, organic carbon burial releases a proportional amount of [Formula: see text], predicting unrealistic rises in atmospheric [Formula: see text] during the 1 to 100 million year-long positive [Formula: see text]C excursions that punctuate the geological record. This carbon-oxygen paradox assumes that the [Formula: see text]C of shallow water carbonates reflects the [Formula: see text]C of global seawater-dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). However, the [Formula: see text]C of modern shallow-water carbonate sediment is higher than expected for calcite or aragonite precipitating from seawater. We explain elevated [Formula: see text]C in shallow carbonates with a diurnal carbon cycle engine, where daily transfer of carbon between organic and inorganic reservoirs forces coupled changes in carbonate saturation ([Formula: see text]) and [Formula: see text]C of DIC. This engine maintains a carbon-cycle hysteresis that is most amplified in shallow, sluggishly mixed waters with high rates of photosynthesis, and provides a simple mechanism for the observed [Formula: see text]C-decoupling between global seawater DIC and shallow carbonate, without burying organic matter or generating O2.