Third international challenge to model the medium- to long-range transport of radioxenon to four Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring stations.

In 2015 and 2016, atmospheric transport modeling challenges were conducted in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification, however, with a more limited scope with respect to emission inventories, simulation period and number of relevant samples (i.e., those above the Minimum Detectable Concentration (MDC)) involved. Therefore, a more comprehensive atmospheric transport modeling challenge was organized in 2019. Stack release data of Xe-133 were provided by the Institut National des Radioéléments/IRE (Belgium) and the Canadian Nuclear Laboratories/CNL (Canada) and accounted for in the simulations over a three (mandatory) or six (optional) months period. Best estimate emissions of additional facilities (radiopharmaceutical production and nuclear research facilities, commercial reactors or relevant research reactors) of the Northern Hemisphere were included as well. Model results were compared with observed atmospheric activity concentrations at four International Monitoring System (IMS) stations located in Europe and North America with overall considerable influence of IRE and/or CNL emissions for evaluation of the participants' runs. Participants were prompted to work with controlled and harmonized model set-ups to make runs more comparable, but also to increase diversity. It was found that using the stack emissions of IRE and CNL with daily resolution does not lead to better results than disaggregating annual emissions of these two facilities taken from the literature if an overall score for all stations covering all valid observed samples is considered. A moderate benefit of roughly 10% is visible in statistical scores for samples influenced by IRE and/or CNL to at least 50% and there can be considerable benefit for individual samples. Effects of transport errors, not properly characterized remaining emitters and long IMS sampling times (12-24 h) undoubtedly are in contrast to and reduce the benefit of high-quality IRE and CNL stack data. Complementary best estimates for remaining emitters push the scores up by 18% compared to just considering IRE and CNL emissions alone. Despite the efforts undertaken the full multi-model ensemble built is highly redundant. An ensemble based on a few arbitrary runs is sufficient to model the Xe-133 background at the stations investigated. The effective ensemble size is below five. An optimized ensemble at each station has on average slightly higher skill compared to the full ensemble. However, the improvement (maximum of 20% and minimum of 3% in RMSE) in skill is likely being too small for being exploited for an independent period.

Validation of the multiscale thermohydrologic model used for analysis of a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain.

Performance assessment and design evaluation of the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain are facilitated by a thermohydrologic modeling tool that simultaneously accounts for processes occurring at a scale of a few tens of centimeters around individual waste packages and emplacement drifts, and accounts for processes at the multi-kilometer scale of the mountain. The most straightforward approach is to account for the 3-D drift- and mountain-scale dimensionality all within a single monolithic thermohydrologic model. This approach is too computationally expensive to be a viable simulation tool capable of addressing all waste-package locations in the repository. The Multiscale Thermohydrologic Model (MSTHM) is a computationally efficient alternative to addressing these modeling issues. In this paper, we describe the principal calculation stages to predict temperature, relative humidity, and liquid-saturation, as well as other thermohydrologic variables, in the drifts and in the host rock. Using a three-drift repository example (which is a scaled-down version of the proposed repository), we demonstrate the validity of the MSTHM approach against a nested monolithic thermohydrologic model.

Internal cavitation in simple head impact model.

A two-dimensional computational model is used to evaluate the potential for cavitation to occur inside the brain material during head impact. The model represents a simple water-filled 14-cm-diameter, 5-cm-deep cylinder. For the purpose of our study, this cylinder represents the skull while the water inside the cylinder represents the brain material. To ensure that the stress predicted by the model is realistic, it has been calibrated against experimental data. When the cylinder is struck by a free-flying mass cavitation is initiated at the boundary opposite impact. Significant vaporous regions may develop at the boundary, while only limited vaporization occurs internally. Higher accelerations, or an additional loading of the domain by a constant acceleration perpendicular to impact, adds to the likelihood and to the severity of internal cavitation. This indicates that preexisting conditions or complex loading conditions of the head during an impact event may affect the cavitation response. Such conditions could be the result of angular velocity, angular accelerations, or head accelerations as a result of neck loading.

Cavitation/boundary effects in a simple head impact model.

An experimental and numerical analysis of the impact response of a simple model of the human head is presented. A water-filled 14-cm diameter cylinder was struck by a 10 kg free flying mass. Rigid-body acceleration-time-history and the pressure at the fluid-cylinder interface were monitored during the impact event. Comparisons between the experimental results and the results of a computational model were made. The computational model used is a two-dimensional finite difference code simulating the physical experiment. The code incorporates a thin layer of air and the potential for vaporization along the inside of the cylinder. The study indicates that during a severe impact to the human head, the stresses generated within the brain can result in cavitation on the far side of impact followed by a sudden cavity collapse which can be quite violent. The study identifies how a skull-brain interface and cavitation can potentially affect the internal pressure response of the brain when subjected to a sudden impact.