Characteristics, management, and outcomes in women and men with congestive heart failure in 40 countries at different economic levels: an analysis from the Global Congestive Heart Failure (G-CHF) registry.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of data on the clinical characteristics, management, and outcomes of women compared with men with heart failure in low-income and middle-income countries compared with high-income countries. We examined sex differences in risk factors, clinical characteristics, and treatments, and prospectively assessed the risk of heart failure hospitalisation and mortality in patients with heart failure in 40 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries. METHODS: Participants aged 18 years or older with heart failure were enrolled from Dec 20, 2016, to Sept 9, 2020 in the prospective Global Congestive Heart Failure (G-CHF) study from 257 centres in 40 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries. Participants were followed up until May 25, 2023. We recorded the demographic characteristics, medical history, and treatments of participants. We prospectively recorded data on heart failure hospitalisation and mortality by sex in the overall study, according to country economic status, and according to level of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). FINDINGS: 23 341 participants (9119 [39·1%] women and 14 222 [60·1%] men) were recruited and followed up for a mean of 2·6 years (SD 1·4). The mean age of women in the study was 62 years (SD 17) compared with 64 years (14) in men. Fewer women than men had an LVEF of 40% or lower (51·7% women vs 66·2% men). By contrast, more women than men had an LVEF of 50% or higher (33·2% women vs 18·6% men). Hypertensive heart failure was the most common aetiology in women (25·5% women vs 16·8% men), whereas ischaemic heart failure was the most common aetiology in men (45·6% men vs 26·6% women). Signs and symptoms of congestion were more common in women than men: 42·6% of women had a New York Heart Association functional class of III or IV compared with 37·9% of men. The use of heart failure medications and cardiac tests did not differ systematically between the sexes, although implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) implantation was lower among women than men (8·7% women vs 17·2% men). The adjusted risk of heart failure hospitalisation was similar in women and men (women-to-men adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·99 [95% CI 0·92-1·05]). This pattern was consistent within groups of countries categorised by economic status, geographical region, and by LVEF level. However, women had a lower adjusted risk of mortality (women-to-men adjusted HR 0·79 [95% CI 0·75-0·84]) despite adjustments for prognostic factors-a pattern which was consistently observed across groups of countries irrespective of economic status, geography, and LVEF levels of patients. INTERPRETATION: The underlying cause of heart failure and ejection fraction phenotype differ between women and men, as do the severity of symptoms. Heart failure treatments (except ICD use) were not consistently in favour of one sex. Paradoxically, while the rates of hospitalisations were similar among women and men, the risk of death was lower among women. These patterns were consistent regardless of the economic status of the countries. The higher mortality among men is unexplained and warrants further study. FUNDING: Bayer.

Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence in Patients With Transient New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation Detected During Hospitalization for Noncardiac Surgery or Medical Illness : A Matched Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is often detected for the first time in patients who are hospitalized for another reason. Long-term risks for AF recurrence in these patients are unclear. OBJECTIVE: To estimate risk for AF recurrence in patients with new-onset AF during a hospitalization for noncardiac surgery or medical illness compared with a matched population without AF. DESIGN: Matched cohort study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03221777). SETTING: Three academic hospitals in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: The study enrolled patients hospitalized for noncardiac surgery or medical illness who had transient new-onset AF. For each participant, an age- and sex-matched control participant with no history of AF from the same hospital ward was recruited. All participants left the hospital in sinus rhythm. MEASUREMENTS: 14-day electrocardiographic (ECG) monitor at 1 and 6 months and telephone assessment at 1, 6, and 12 months. The primary outcome was AF lasting at least 30 seconds on the monitor or captured by ECG 12-lead during routine care at 12 months. RESULTS: Among 139 participants with transient new-onset AF (70 patients with medical illness and 69 surgical patients) and 139 matched control participants, the mean age was 71 years (SD, 10), the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.0 (SD, 1.5), and 59% were male. The median duration of AF during the index hospitalization was 15.8 hours (IQR, 6.4 to 49.6 hours). After 1 year, recurrent AF was detected in 33.1% (95% CI, 25.3% to 40.9%) of participants in the transient new-onset AF group and 5.0% (CI, 1.4% to 8.7%) of matched control participants; after adjustment for the number of ECG monitors worn and for baseline clinical differences, the adjusted relative risk was 6.6 (CI, 3.2 to 13.7). After exclusion of participants who had electrical or pharmacologic cardioversion during the index hospitalization (n = 40) and their matched control participants and limiting to AF events detected by the patch ECG monitor, recurrent AF was detected in 32.3% (CI, 23.1% to 41.5%) of participants with transient new-onset AF and 3.0% (CI, 0% to 6.4%) of matched control participants. LIMITATIONS: Generalizability is limited, and the study was underpowered to evaluate subgroups and clinical predictors. CONCLUSION: Among patients who have transient new-onset AF during a hospitalization for noncardiac surgery or medical illness, approximately 1 in 3 will have recurrent AF within 1 year. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Peer-reviewed grants.

Frailty and outcomes in heart failure patients from high-, middle-, and low-income countries.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There is little information on the incremental prognostic importance of frailty beyond conventional prognostic variables in heart failure (HF) populations from different country income levels. METHODS: A total of 3429 adults with HF (age 61 ± 14 years, 33% women) from 27 high-, middle- and low-income countries were prospectively studied. Baseline frailty was evaluated by the Fried index, incorporating handgrip strength, gait speed, physical activity, unintended weight loss, and self-reported exhaustion. Mean left ventricular ejection fraction was 39 ± 14% and 26% had New York Heart Association Class III/IV symptoms. Participants were followed for a median (25th to 75th percentile) of 3.1 (2.0-4.3) years. Cox proportional hazard models for death and HF hospitalization adjusted for country income level; age; sex; education; HF aetiology; left ventricular ejection fraction; diabetes; tobacco and alcohol use; New York Heart Association functional class; HF medication use; blood pressure; and haemoglobin, sodium, and creatinine concentrations were performed. The incremental discriminatory value of frailty over and above the MAGGIC risk score was evaluated by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: At baseline, 18% of participants were robust, 61% pre-frail, and 21% frail. During follow-up, 565 (16%) participants died and 471 (14%) were hospitalized for HF. Respective adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for death among the pre-frail and frail were 1.59 (1.12-2.26) and 2.92 (1.99-4.27). Respective adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for HF hospitalization were 1.32 (0.93-1.87) and 1.97 (1.33-2.91). Findings were consistent among different country income levels and by most subgroups. Adding frailty to the MAGGIC risk score improved the discrimination of future death and HF hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty confers substantial incremental prognostic information to prognostic variables for predicting death and HF hospitalization. The relationship between frailty and these outcomes is consistent across countries at all income levels.

Global Variations in Heart Failure Etiology, Management, and Outcomes.

Importance: Most epidemiological studies of heart failure (HF) have been conducted in high-income countries with limited comparable data from middle- or low-income countries. Objective: To examine differences in HF etiology, treatment, and outcomes between groups of countries at different levels of economic development. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multinational HF registry of 23 341 participants in 40 high-income, upper-middle-income, lower-middle-income, and low-income countries, followed up for a median period of 2.0 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: HF cause, HF medication use, hospitalization, and death. Results: Mean (SD) age of participants was 63.1 (14.9) years, and 9119 (39.1%) were female. The most common cause of HF was ischemic heart disease (38.1%) followed by hypertension (20.2%). The proportion of participants with HF with reduced ejection fraction taking the combination of a ß-blocker, renin-angiotensin system inhibitor, and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist was highest in upper-middle-income (61.9%) and high-income countries (51.1%), and it was lowest in low-income (45.7%) and lower-middle-income countries (39.5%) (P < .001). The age- and sex- standardized mortality rate per 100 person-years was lowest in high-income countries (7.8 [95% CI, 7.5-8.2]), 9.3 (95% CI, 8.8-9.9) in upper-middle-income countries, 15.7 (95% CI, 15.0-16.4) in lower-middle-income countries, and it was highest in low-income countries (19.1 [95% CI, 17.6-20.7]). Hospitalization rates were more frequent than death rates in high-income countries (ratio = 3.8) and in upper-middle-income countries (ratio = 2.4), similar in lower-middle-income countries (ratio = 1.1), and less frequent in low-income countries (ratio = 0.6). The 30-day case-fatality rate after first hospital admission was lowest in high-income countries (6.7%), followed by upper-middle-income countries (9.7%), then lower-middle-income countries (21.1%), and highest in low-income countries (31.6%). The proportional risk of death within 30 days of a first hospital admission was 3- to 5-fold higher in lower-middle-income countries and low-income countries compared with high-income countries after adjusting for patient characteristics and use of long-term HF therapies. Conclusions and Relevance: This study of HF patients from 40 different countries and derived from 4 different economic levels demonstrated differences in HF etiologies, management, and outcomes. These data may be useful in planning approaches to improve HF prevention and treatment globally.

Influenza vaccine to reduce adverse vascular events in patients with heart failure: a multinational randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Influenza increases the risk of cardiovascular events and deaths. We aimed to see whether influenza vaccination reduces death and vascular events in patients with heart failure. METHODS: We did a pragmatic, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in 30 centres (mostly hospitals affliated with universities or a research institute) in ten countries in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa (7 in India, 4 in Philippines, 4 in Nigeria, 6 in China, 1 in Zambia, 2 in Mozambique, 3 in Saudi Arabia, 1 in Kenya, 1 in Uganda, and 1 in Zambia). Participants (aged ≥18 years; 52·1% female; not disaggregated by race or ethnicity) with heart failure (New York Heart Association class II, III, or IV) were randomly assigned (1:1) by a centralised web-based system with block randomisation stratified by site, to receive 0·5 ml intramuscularly once a year for up to 3 years of either inactivated standard dose influenza vaccine or placebo (saline). We excluded people who had received influenza vaccine in 2 of the previous 3 years, and those likely to require valve repair or replacement. Those who administered assigned treatments were not masked and had no further role in the study. Investigators, study coordinators, outcome adjudicators, and participants were masked to group assignment. The first of two co-primary outcomes was a first-event composite for cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and non-fatal stroke, and the second was a recurrent-events composite for cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and hospitalisation for heart failure. Outcomes were assessed every 6 months in the intention-to-treat population. Secondary outcomes were all-cause death, cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, all-cause hospitalisation, hospitalisation for heart failure, and pneumonia, both overall and during periods of peak influenza exposure. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02762851. FINDINGS: Between June 2, 2015, and Nov 21, 2021, we enrolled 5129 participants and randomly assigned (1:1) 2560 (50·0%) to influenza vaccine and 2569 (50·0%) to placebo. The first co-primary outcome occurred in 380 (14·8%) of 2560 participants in the vaccine group and 410 (16·0%) of 2569 participants in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·93 [95% CI 0·81-1·07]; p=0·30). The second co-primary outcome occurred in 754 (29·5%) of 2560 participants in the vaccine group and 819 (31·9%) of 2569 participants in the placebo group; HR 0·92 [95% CI 0·84-1·02]; p=0·12). The secondary outcomes of all-cause hospitalisations (HR 0·84 [95% CI 0·74-0·97]; p=0·013) and pneumonia (HR 0·58 [0·42-0·80]; p=0·0006) were significantly reduced in the vaccine group compared with in the placebo group but there was no significant difference between groups for all-cause death, cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and hospitalisation for heart failure. In a prespecified analysis, in which events were limited to periods of peak influenza circulation, the first co-primary outcome, and the secondary outcomes of all-cause death, cardiovasular death, and pneumonia were significantly lower in the vaccinated group than in the placebo group, whereas the second co-primary outcome and the secondary outcomes of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, all-cause hospitalisation, and hospitalisation for heart failure were not significantly lower. INTERPRETATION: Although the prespecified co-primary outcomes during the entire period of observation were not statistically significant, the reduction during the peak influenza circulating period suggests that there is likely to be a clinical benefit of giving influenza vaccine, given the clear reduction in pneumonia, a moderate reduction in hospitalisations, and a reduction in cardiovascular events and deaths during periods of peak circulation of influenza. Taken in conjunction with previous trials and the observational studies, the collective data suggest benefit. FUNDING: UK Joint Global Health Trials Scheme and Canadian Institutes for Health Research Foundation.

Factors associated with health-related quality of life in heart failure in 23 000 patients from 40 countries: results of the G-CHF research programme.

AIMS: To examine clinical and social correlates of health-related quality of life (HRQL) in patients with heart failure (HF) from high- (HIC), upper middle- (UMIC), lower middle- (LMIC) and low-income (LIC) countries. METHODS AND RESULTS: Between 2017 and 2020, 23 292 patients with HF (32% inpatients, 61% men) from 40 countries were enrolled in the Global Congestive Heart Failure study. HRQL was recorded at baseline using the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ)-12. In a cross-sectional analysis, we compared age- and sex-adjusted mean KCCQ-12 summary scores (SS: 0-100, higher = better) between patients from different country income levels. We used multivariable linear regression examining correlations (estimated coefficients) of KCCQ-12-SS with sociodemographic, comorbidity, treatment and symptom covariates. The adjusted model (37 covariates) was informed by univariable findings, clinical importance and backward selection. Mean age was 63 years and 40% of patients were in New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III-IV. Average HRQL was 55 SD 27. It was 62.5 (95% confidence interval [CI] 62.0-63.1) in HIC, 56.8 (56.1-57.4) in UMIC, 48.6 (48.0-49.3) in LMIC, and 38.5 (37.3-39.7) in LICs (p < 0.0001). Strong correlates (estimated coefficient [95% CI]) of KCCQ-12-SS were NYHA class III versus class I/II (-12.1 [-12.8 to -11.4] and class IV versus class I/II (-16.5 [-17.7 to -15.3]), effort dyspnoea (-9.5 [-10.2 to -8.8]) and living in LIC versus HIC (-5.8 [-7.1 to -4.4]). Symptoms explained most of the KCCQ-12-SS variability (partial R2  = 0.32 of total adjusted R2  = 0.51), followed by sociodemographic factors (R2  = 0.12). Results were consistent in populations across income levels. CONCLUSION: The most important correlates of HRQL in HF patients relate to HF symptom severity, irrespective of country income level.

Clinical Profiles and Outcomes of Heart Failure in Five African Countries: Results from INTER-CHF Study.

Background: A wide knowledge gap exists on the clinical profiles and outcomes of heart failure (HF) in sub-Saharan Africa. Objectives: To determine the clinical profiles and outcomes of HF patients from five African countries. Methods: The INTERnational Congestive Heart Failure Study (INTER-CHF) is a prospective, multicenter cohort study. A total of 1,294 HF patients were consecutively recruited from Nigeria (383 patients), South Africa (169 patients), Sudan (501 patients), Uganda (151patients), and Mozambique (90 patients). HF was defined according to the Boston criteria for diagnosis. Cognitive function was assessed using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) score. Results: Of the 1294 patients, 51.4% were recruited as out-patients, 53.7% had HF with reduced ejection fraction (EF), 30.1% had HF with mid-range EF and 16.2% had HF with preserved EF (16.2%). The commonest etiologies of HF were hypertensive heart disease (35%) and ischemic heart disease (20%). The mean MoCA score was highest in Uganda (24.3 ± 1.1) and lowest in Sudan (13.6 ± 0.3). Prescriptions for guideline-recommended HF therapies were poor; only 1.2% of South African patients received an Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator, and none of the patients received Cardiac Resynchronised Therapy. The composite outcome of death or HF hospitalization at one year among the patients was highest in Sudan (59.7%) and lowest in Mozambique (21.1%). Six variables were associated with higher mortality risk, while digoxin use (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.49-0.97; p = 0.034) and 10mmHg unit increase in systolic blood pressure (aHR 0.86; 95%CI 0.81-0.93; p < 0.001) were associated with lower risk for mortality. Conclusions: This is the largest HF study in Africa that included in- and out-patients from the West, East, North, Central and South African sub-regions. Clinically relevant differences, including cognitive functional impairment, were found between the involved countries.

Health-Related Quality of Life and Mortality in Heart Failure: The Global Congestive Heart Failure Study of 23 000 Patients From 40 Countries.

BACKGROUND: Poor health-related quality of life (HRQL) is common in heart failure (HF), but there are few data on HRQL in HF and the association between HRQL and mortality outside Western countries. METHODS: We used the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire-12 (KCCQ-12) to record HRQL in 23 291 patients with HF from 40 countries in 8 different world regions in the G-CHF study (Global Congestive Heart Failure). We compared standardized KCCQ-12 summary scores (adjusted for age, sex, and markers of HF severity) among regions (scores range from 0 to 100, with higher score indicating better HRQL). We used multivariable Cox regression with adjustment for 15 variables to assess the association between KCCQ-12 summary scores and the composite of all-cause death, HF hospitalization, and each component over a median follow-up of 1.6 years. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 65 years; 61% were men; 40% had New York Heart Association class III or IV symptoms; and 46% had left ventricular ejection fraction ≥40%. Average HRQL differed between regions (lowest in Africa [mean± SE, 39.5±0.3], highest in Western Europe [62.5±0.4]). There were 4460 (19%) deaths, 3885 (17%) HF hospitalizations, and 6949 (30%) instances of either event. Lower KCCQ-12 summary score was associated with higher risk of all outcomes; the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for each 10-unit KCCQ-12 summary score decrement was 1.18 (95% CI, 1.17-1.20) for death. Although this association was observed in all regions, it was less marked in South Asia, South America, and Africa (weakest association in South Asia: HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.03-1.14]; strongest association in Eastern Europe: HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.21-1.42]; interaction P<0.0001). Lower HRQL predicted death in patients with New York Heart Association class I or II and III or IV symptoms (HR, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.14-1.19] and HR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.12-1.17]; interaction P=0.13) and was a stronger predictor for the composite outcome in New York Heart Association class I or II versus class III or IV (HR 1.15 [95% CI, 1.13-1.17] versus 1.09 [95% CI, [1.07-1.11]; interaction P<0.0001). HR for death was greater in ejection fraction ≥40 versus <40% (HR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.20-1.26] and HR, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.13-1.17]; interaction P<0.0001). CONCLUSION: HRQL is a strong and independent predictor of all-cause death and HF hospitalization across all geographic regions, in mildly and severe symptomatic HF, and among patients with preserved and reduced ejection fraction. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03078166.

Characteristics and outcomes of atrial fibrillation in patients without traditional risk factors: an RE-LY AF registry analysis.

AIMS: Data on patient characteristics, prevalence, and outcomes of atrial fibrillation (AF) patients without traditional risk factors, often labelled 'lone AF', are sparse. METHODS AND RESULTS: The RE-LY AF registry included 15 400 individuals who presented to emergency departments with AF in 47 countries. This analysis focused on patients without traditional risk factors, including age ≥60 years, hypertension, coronary artery disease, heart failure, left ventricular hypertrophy, congenital heart disease, pulmonary disease, valve heart disease, hyperthyroidism, and prior cardiac surgery. Patients without traditional risk factors were compared with age- and region-matched controls with traditional risk factors (1:3 fashion). In 796 (5%) patients, no traditional risk factors were present. However, 98% (779/796) had less-established or borderline risk factors, including borderline hypertension (130-140/80-90 mmHg; 47%), chronic kidney disease (eGFR < 60 mL/min; 57%), obesity (body mass index > 30; 19%), diabetes (5%), excessive alcohol intake (>14 units/week; 4%), and smoking (25%). Compared with patients with traditional risk factors (n = 2388), patients without traditional risk factors were more often men (74% vs. 59%, P < 0.001) had paroxysmal AF (55% vs. 37%, P < 0.001) and less AF persistence after 1 year (21% vs. 49%, P < 0.001). Furthermore, 1-year stroke occurrence rate (0.6% vs. 2.0%, P = 0.013) and heart failure hospitalizations (0.9% vs. 12.5%, P < 0.001) were lower. However, risk of AF-related re-hospitalization was similar (18% vs. 21%, P = 0.09). CONCLUSION: Almost all patients without traditionally defined AF risk factors have less-established or borderline risk factors. These patients have a favourable 1-year prognosis, but risk of AF-related re-hospitalization remains high. Greater emphasis should be placed on recognition and management of less-established or borderline risk factors.

Screening for atrial fibrillation in Canadian pharmacies: an economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Screening for undiagnosed atrial fibrillation may lead to treatment with oral anticoagulation therapy, which can decrease the risk of ischemic stroke. The objective of this study was to conduct an economic evaluation of the Program for the Identification of 'Actionable' Atrial Fibrillation in the Pharmacy Setting (PIAAF-Pharmacy), which screened 1145 participants aged 65 years or more at 30 community pharmacies in Ontario and Alberta between October 2014 and April 2015. METHODS: We used a 2-part decision model to evaluate the short- and long-term costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of a pharmacy screening program for atrial fibrillation compared to no screening. Data from the PIAAF-Pharmacy study were used for the short-term model, and the relevant literature was used to extrapolate the benefits of the PIAAF-Pharmacy study in the long-term model. Costs and QALYs were calculated from a payer perspective over a lifetime horizon and were discounted at 1.5%/year. RESULTS: Screening for atrial fibrillation in pharmacies was associated with higher costs ($26) and more QALYs (0.0035) compared to no screening, yielding an incremental cost per QALY gained of $7480. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed that screening for atrial fibrillation in a pharmacy setting was a cost-effective strategy. INTERPRETATION: Our results support screening for atrial fibrillation in Canadian pharmacies. Given this finding, efforts should be made by provincial governments and pharmacies to implement such programs in Canada. The addition of atrial fibrillation screening alongside screening and management of other cardiovascular conditions may help to reduce the burden of stroke.

Global mortality variations in patients with heart failure: results from the International Congestive Heart Failure (INTER-CHF) prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Most data on mortality and prognostic factors in patients with heart failure come from North America and Europe, with little information from other regions. Here, in the International Congestive Heart Failure (INTER-CHF) study, we aimed to measure mortality at 1 year in patients with heart failure in Africa, China, India, the Middle East, southeast Asia and South America; we also explored demographic, clinical, and socioeconomic variables associated with mortality. METHODS: We enrolled consecutive patients with heart failure (3695 [66%] clinic outpatients, 2105 [34%] hospital in patients) from 108 centres in six geographical regions. We recorded baseline demographic and clinical characteristics and followed up patients at 6 months and 1 year from enrolment to record symptoms, medications, and outcomes. Time to death was studied with Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for demographic and clinical variables, medications, socioeconomic variables, and region. We used the explained risk statistic to calculate the relative contribution of each level of adjustment to the risk of death. FINDINGS: We enrolled 5823 patients within 1 year (with 98% follow-up). Overall mortality was 16·5%: highest in Africa (34%) and India (23%), intermediate in southeast Asia (15%), and lowest in China (7%), South America (9%), and the Middle East (9%). Regional differences persisted after multivariable adjustment. Independent predictors of mortality included cardiac variables (New York Heart Association Functional Class III or IV, previous admission for heart failure, and valve disease) and non-cardiac variables (body-mass index, chronic kidney disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease). 46% of mortality risk was explained by multivariable modelling with these variables; however, the remainder was unexplained. INTERPRETATION: Marked regional differences in mortality in patients with heart failure persisted after multivariable adjustment for cardiac and non-cardiac factors. Therefore, variations in mortality between regions could be the result of health-care infrastructure, quality and access, or environmental and genetic factors. Further studies in large, global cohorts are needed. FUNDING: The study was supported by Novartis.

Occurrence of death and stroke in patients in 47 countries 1 year after presenting with atrial fibrillation: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation is an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, but scant data are available for long-term outcomes in individuals outside North America or Europe, especially in primary care settings. METHODS: We did a cohort study using a prospective registry of patients in 47 countries who presented to a hospital emergency department with atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter as a primary or secondary diagnosis. 15 400 individuals were enrolled to determine the occurrence of death and strokes (the primary outcomes) in this cohort over eight geographical regions (North America, western Europe, and Australia; South America; eastern Europe; the Middle East and Mediterranean crescent; sub-Saharan Africa; India; China; and southeast Asia) 1 year after attending the emergency department. Patients from North America, western Europe, and Australia were used as the reference population, and compared with patients from the other seven regions FINDINGS: Between Dec 24, 2007, and Oct 21, 2011, we enrolled 15 400 individuals to the registry. Follow-up was complete for 15 361 (99·7%), of whom 1758 (11%) died within 1 year. Fewer deaths occurred among patients presenting to the emergency department with a primary diagnosis of atrial fibrillation compared with patients who had atrial fibrillation as a secondary diagnosis (377 [6%] of 6825 patients vs 1381 [16%] of 8536, p<0·0001). Twice as many patients had died by 1 year in South America (192 [17%] of 1132) and Africa (225 [20%] of 1137) compared with North America, western Europe, and Australia (366 [10%] of 3800, p<0·0001). Heart failure was the most common cause of death (519 [30%] of 1758); stroke caused 148 (8%) deaths. 604 (4%) of 15361 patients had had a stroke by 1 year; 170 (3%) of 6825 for whom atrial fibrillation was a primary diagnosis and 434 (5%) of 8536 for whom it was a secondary diagnosis (p<0·0001). The highest number of strokes occurred in patients in Africa (89 [8%] of 1137), China (143 [7%] of 2023), and southeast Asia (88 [7%] of 1331) and the lowest occurred in India (20 [<1%] of 2536). 94 (3%) of 3800 patients in North America, western Europe, and Australia had a stroke. INTERPRETATION: Marked unexplained inter-regional variations in the occurrence of stroke and mortality suggest that factors other than clinical variables might be important. Prevention of death from heart failure should be a major priority in the treatment of atrial fibrillation. FUNDING: Boehringer Ingelheim.

High prevalence of modifiable stroke risk factors identified in a pharmacy-based screening programme.

BACKGROUND: Population-based screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) is a promising public health strategy to prevent stroke. However, none of the published reports have evaluated comprehensive screening for additional stroke risk factors such as hypertension and diabetes in a pharmacy setting. METHODS: The Program for the Identification of 'Actionable' Atrial Fibrillation in the Pharmacy Setting (PIAAF-Pharmacy) screened individuals aged ≥65 years, attending community pharmacies in Canada, who were not receiving oral anticoagulation (OAC). Participants were screened for AF using a hand-held ECG device, had blood pressure (BP) measured, and diabetes risk estimated using the Canadian Diabetes Risk Assessment Questionnaire (CANRISK) questionnaire. 'Actionable' AF was defined as unrecognised or undertreated AF. A 6-week follow-up visit with the family physician was suggested for participants with 'actionable' AF and a scheduled 3-month visit occurred at an AF clinic. RESULTS: During 6 months, 1145 participants were screened at 30 pharmacies. 'Actionable' AF was identified in 2.5% (95% CI 1.7 to 3.6; n=29); of these, 96% were newly diagnosed. Participants with 'actionable AF' had a mean age of 77.2±6.8 years, 58.6% were male and 93.1% had a CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2. A BP>140/90 was found in 54.9% (616/1122) of participants and 44.4% (214/492) were found to be at high risk of diabetes. At 3 months, only 17% of participants were started on OAC, 50% had improved BP and 71% had confirmatory diabetes testing. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated stroke screening identifies a high prevalence of individuals who could benefit from stroke prevention therapies but must be coupled with a defined care pathway.

Heart Failure in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and South America: The INTER-CHF study.

BACKGROUND: There are few data on heart failure (HF) patients from Africa, Asia, the Middle East and South America. METHODS: INTER-CHF is a prospective study that enrolled HF patients in 108 centers in 16 countries from 2012 to 2014. Consecutive ambulatory or hospitalized adult patients with HF were enrolled. Baseline data were recorded on sociodemographics, clinical characteristics, HF etiology and treatments. Age- and sex-adjusted results are reported. RESULTS: We recruited 5813 HF patients: mean(SE) age=59(0.2)years, 39% female, 65% outpatients, 31% from rural areas, 26% with HF with preserved ejection fraction, with 1294 from Africa, 2661 from Asia, 1000 from the Middle-East, and 858 from South America. Participants from Africa-closely followed by Asians-were younger, had lower literacy levels, and were less likely to have health or medication insurance or be on beta-blockers compared with participants from other regions, but were most likely to be in NYHA class IV. Participants from South America were older, had higher insurance and literacy levels, and, along with Middle Eastern participants, were more likely to be on beta-blockers, but had the lowest proportion in NYHA IV. Ischemic heart disease was the most common HF etiology in all regions except Africa where hypertensive heart disease was most common. CONCLUSIONS: INTER-CHF describes significant regional variability in socioeconomic and clinical factors, etiologies and treatments in HF patients from Africa, Asia, the Middle East and South America. Opportunities exist for improvement in health/medication insurance rates and proportions of patients on beta blockers, particularly in Africa and Asia.

Heart failure in low- and middle-income countries: background, rationale, and design of the INTERnational Congestive Heart Failure Study (INTER-CHF).

BACKGROUND: Although heart failure (HF) has been referred to as a global epidemic, most HF information comes from high-income countries, with little information about low-income countries (LIC) and middle-income countries (MIC) in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and South America, which make up the majority of the world's population. METHODS: The INTERnational Congestive Heart Failure Study is a cohort study of 5,813 HF patients enrolled in 108 centers in 16 LIC and MIC. At baseline, data were recorded on sociodemographic and clinical risk factors, HF etiology, laboratory variables, management, and barriers to evidence-based HF care at the patient, physician, and system levels. We sought to enroll consecutive and consenting patients ≥18 years of age with a clinical diagnosis of HF seen in outpatient clinics (2/3 of patients) or inpatient hospital wards (1/3 of patients). Patients were followed up at 6 and 12 months post-enrollment to record clinical status, treatments, and clinical outcomes such as death and hospitalizations. In the 5,813 enrolled HF patients, the mean age was 59 ± 15 years, 40% were female, 62% had a history of hypertension, 30% had diabetes, 21% had prior myocardial infarction, 64% were recruited from outpatient clinics, 36% lived in rural areas, and 29% had HF with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. CONCLUSIONS: This unique HF registry aims to systematically gather information on sociodemographic and clinical risk factors, etiologies, treatments, barriers to evidence-based care, and outcomes of HF in LIC and MIC. This information will help improve the management of HF globally.

Variations in cause and management of atrial fibrillation in a prospective registry of 15,400 emergency department patients in 46 countries: the RE-LY Atrial Fibrillation Registry.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia; however, little is known about patients in a primary care setting from high-, middle-, and low-income countries. METHODS AND RESULTS: This prospective registry enrolled patients presenting to an emergency department with AF at 164 sites in 46 countries representing all inhabited continents. Patient characteristics were compared among 9 major geographic regions. Between September 2008 and April 2011, 15,400 patients were enrolled. The average age was 65.9, standard deviation 14.8 years, ranging from 57.2, standard deviation 18.8 years in Africa, to 70.1, standard deviation 13.4 years in North America, P<0.001. Hypertension was globally the most common risk factor for AF, ranging in prevalence from 41.6% in India to 80.7% in Eastern Europe, P<0.001. Rheumatic heart disease was present in only 2.2% of North American patients, in comparison with 21.5% in Africa and 31.5% in India, P<0.001. The use of oral anticoagulation among patients with a CHADS2 score of ≥2 was greatest in North America (65.7%) but was only 11.2% in China, P<0.001. The mean time in the therapeutic range was 62.4% in Western Europe, 50.9% in North America, but only between 32% and 40% in India, China, Southeast Asia, and Africa, P<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: There is a large global variation in age, risk factors, concomitant diseases, and treatment of AF among regions. Improving outcomes globally requires an understanding of this variation and the conduct of research focused on AF associated with different underlying conditions and treatment of AF and predisposing conditions in different socioeconomic settings.