Maternal and pregnancy predictive risk factors for having a compensated maternal injury claim: a Swedish nationwide cohort study.

To describe trends and identify maternal and pregnancy predictive risk factors for having a compensated claim for a maternal injury during delivery, as a proxy for having received suboptimal care. This nationwide retrospective cohort study included 1 754 869 births in Sweden between 2000 and 2016, including 4488 maternal injury claims filed with The National Swedish Patient Insurance Company (Löf), of which 1637 were compensated. Descriptive statistics on maternal and pregnancy characteristics, trends in filed/compensated claims over time, and distribution of compensated claims by clinical classification are presented. Characteristics associated with suboptimal care were identified using multivariable logistic regression, with mutual adjustment in the final model. Compensated claims were sorted into 14 clinical classifications (ICD-10 codes for main condition, injury, and causality). Overall, there was a two-fold increase in filed claims from 2000 to 2016, peaking in 2014. The rate of compensated claims only increased marginally, and 36.5% of filed claims were deemed avoidable. Perineal and pelvic floor injuries, as well as medical and diagnostic errors, were responsible for the majority of compensated claims. Women with a previous caesarean section, post term delivery, chronic or gestational disease, > 13 antenatal visits, or a multiple pregnancy had increased risk of having a compensated claim for a maternal injury during delivery. Understanding the risk factors for having a compensated maternal injury claim may guide health workers and maternity wards in improving the quality and organisation of care to reduce the risk of childbirth related injuries.

The role of prolactin in the suppression of Crh mRNA expression during pregnancy and lactation in the mouse.

Maternal stress is associated with negative health consequences for both the mother and her offspring. To prevent these adverse outcomes, activity of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis is attenuated during pregnancy and lactation. Although the mechanisms generating this adaptive change have not been defined fully, the anterior pituitary hormone prolactin may play a significant role. The present study investigated the role of prolactin in regulating the basal activity of the HPA axis during pregnancy and lactation in the mouse, focussing upon the corticotrophin-releasing hormone (CRH) neurones. Using in situ hybridisation, a decrease in Crh mRNA-expressing cell number in pregnant (55.6±9.0 cells per section) and lactating (97.4±4.9) mice compared to virgin controls was characterised (186.8±18.7, P<.01 Tukey-Kramer test; n=6-7 per group). Removal of the pups (24 hours) and thus the associated suckling-induced prolactin secretion, restored CRH neurone number (180.1±19.7). To specifically test the role of prolactin in suppressing Crh mRNA expression in lactation, prolactin levels were selectively manipulated in lactating mice. Lactating mice were treated with ovine prolactin (1500 µg day-1 , osmotic minipump, s.c.; n=7) or vehicle (n=6) for 24 hours following pup removal. This was sufficient to suppress Crh mRNA expression from 108.0±13.5 to 53.7±16.7 cells per section (P<.05 Student's t-test). Additional cohorts of lactating mice were treated with bromocriptine (300 µg over 24 hours, s.c.; n=7) or vehicle (n=5) to suppress endogenous prolactin secretion; however, no change in Crh mRNA expression was detected. Thus, although prolactin was sufficient to suppress Crh mRNA expression in the paraventricular nucleus, it does not appear to be required for the ongoing regulation of the CRH neurones in lactation.

Role of primary T-cell immunodeficiency and hepatitis B coinfection on spontaneous clearance of hepatitis C: The BC Hepatitis Testers Cohort.

T-cell host immune response against hepatitis C virus (HCV) has been suggested to play an important role in determining HCV infection outcome. However, data from human studies are not available. This study examined the effect of primary T-cell deficiency along with other factors on the spontaneous clearance of HCV in a large population-based cohort in British Columbia, Canada. The BC Hepatitis Testers Cohort includes all individuals tested for HCV in BC in 1990-2013 linked with data on their medical visits, hospitalizations and prescription drugs. HCV-positive individuals with at least one valid HCV PCR test on/after HCV diagnosis (n=46 783) were included in this study. To examine factors associated with the spontaneous clearance of HCV, multivariable logistic regression was fitted on the full sample, and Cox proportional hazards model on the HCV seroconverters. Spontaneous clearance was observed in 25.1% (n=11 737) of those tested for HCV. After adjusting for potential confounders, the odds of spontaneous clearance of HCV was lower in people with primary T-cell immunodeficiency (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.32-0.94), and higher in females (aOR: 1.61, 95% CI: 1.54-1.68) and in those coinfected with HBV (aOR: 2.31, 95% CI: 1.93-2.77). Similar results were observed in HCV seroconverters except HBV coinfection was not significant. In conclusion, primary T-cell immunodeficiency is associated with a lower spontaneous clearance of HCV while female sex and coinfection with HBV are associated with a higher spontaneous clearance.

Disconnected by design: analytic approach in treatment networks having no common comparator.

In a network meta-analysis, comparators of interest are ideally connected either directly or via one or more common comparators. However, in some therapeutic areas, the evidence base can produce networks that are disconnected, in which there is neither direct evidence nor an indirect route for comparing certain treatments within the network. Disconnected networks may occur when there is no accepted standard of care, when there has been a major paradigm shift in treatment, when use of a standard of care or placebo is debated, when a product receives orphan drug designation, or when there is a large number of available treatments and many accepted standards of care. These networks pose a challenge to decision makers and clinicians who want to estimate the relative efficacy and safety of newly available agents against alternatives. A currently recommended approach is to insert a distribution for the unknown treatment effect(s) into a network meta-analysis model of treatment effect. In this paper, we describe this approach along with two alternative Bayesian models that can accommodate disconnected networks. Additionally, we present a theoretical framework to guide the choice between modeling approaches. This paper presents researchers with the tools and framework for selecting appropriate models for indirect comparison of treatment efficacies when challenged with a disconnected framework. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Beta-interferon exposure and onset of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Beta-interferons (IFNß) are the most widely prescribed drugs for patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). However, whether or not treatment with IFNß can delay secondary progressive MS (SPMS) onset remains unknown. Our aim was to examine the association between IFNß exposure and SPMS onset in patients with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using British Columbia (Canada) population-based clinical and health administrative data (1985-2008) was conducted. RRMS patients treated with IFNß (n = 794) were compared with untreated contemporary (n = 933) and historical (n = 837) controls. Cohort entry was the first clinic visit during which patients became eligible for IFNß treatment (baseline). The outcome was time from baseline to SPMS onset. Cox regression models with IFNß as a time-dependent exposure were adjusted for sex, and baseline age, disease duration, disability, *socioeconomic status and *comorbidities (*available for the contemporary cohorts only). Additional analyses included propensity score adjustment. RESULTS: The median follow-up for the IFNß-treated, untreated contemporary and historical controls were 5.7, 3.7 and 7.3 years, and the proportions of patients reaching SPMS were 9.2%, 11.8% and 32.9%, respectively. After adjustment for confounders, IFNß exposure was not associated with the risk of reaching SPMS when either the contemporary or the historical untreated cohorts were considered (hazard ratio 1.07; 95% confidence interval 0.93-1.48, and hazard ratio 1.04; 95% confidence interval 0.74-1.46, respectively). Further adjustments and the propensity score yielded results consistent with the main analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Amongst patients with RRMS, use of IFNß was not associated with a delayed onset of SPMS.

Investigation of heterogeneity in the association between interferon beta and disability progression in multiple sclerosis: an observational study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: It was recently reported that there was no significant overall association between interferon beta exposure and disability progression in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients in an observational study from Canada. In the current study, the potential for heterogeneity in the association between exposure to interferon beta and disability progression across patients' baseline characteristics was investigated. METHODS: RRMS patients treated with interferon beta (n = 868) and two cohorts of untreated patients (829 contemporary and 959 historical controls) were included. The main outcome was time from interferon beta treatment eligibility (baseline) to a confirmed and sustained Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score 6 using a multivariable Cox model, with treatment as a time-varying predictor, testing interaction effects for five pre-specified baseline characteristics: sex, age, disease duration, EDSS and annualized relapse rate (ARR) based on the previous 2 years. RESULTS: Significant heterogeneity was found in the association of interferon beta exposure and disability progression only across ARR, and only when treated patients were compared with historical controls (P = 0.005 at a Bonferroni-adjusted alpha of 0.01). For patients with ARR>1, treatment-exposed time was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.38 (95%CI 0.20-0.75) for disability progression compared with the unexposed time. CONCLUSIONS: RRMS patients with more frequent relapses at baseline may be more likely to benefit from interferon beta treatment with respect to long-term disability progression.

Exploitation of interspecific diversity for monocot crop improvement.

In many cultivated crop species there is limited genetic variation available for the development of new higher yielding varieties adapted to climate change and sustainable farming practises. The distant relatives of crop species provide a vast and largely untapped reservoir of genetic variation for a wide range of agronomically important traits that can be exploited by breeders for crop improvement. In this paper, in what we believe to be the largest introgression programme undertaken in the monocots, we describe the transfer of the entire genome of Festuca pratensis into Lolium perenne in overlapping chromosome segments. The L. perenne/F. pratensis introgressions were identified and characterised via 131 simple sequence repeats and 1612 SNPs anchored to the rice genome. Comparative analyses were undertaken to determine the syntenic relationship between L. perenne/F. pratensis and rice, wheat, barley, sorghum and Brachypodium distachyon. Analyses comparing recombination frequency and gene distribution indicated that a large proportion of the genes within the genome are located in the proximal regions of chromosomes which undergo low/very low frequencies of recombination. Thus, it is proposed that past breeding efforts to produce improved varieties have centred on the subset of genes located in the distal regions of chromosomes where recombination is highest. The use of alien introgression for crop improvement is important for meeting the challenges of global food supply and the monocots such as the forage grasses and cereals, together with recent technological advances in molecular biology, can help meet these challenges.

A web-based prognostic tool for extremity and trunk wall soft tissue sarcomas and its external validation.

BACKGROUND: We developed a web-based, prognostic tool for extremity and trunk wall soft tissue sarcoma to predict 10-year sarcoma-specific survival. External validation was performed. METHODS: Patients referred during 1987-2002 to Helsinki University Central Hospital are included. External validation was obtained from the Lund University Hospital register. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted with the Helsinki data. The previously described model (SIN) includes size, necrosis, and vascular invasion. The extended model (SAM) includes the SIN factors and in addition depth, location, grade, and size on a continuous scale. Models were statistically compared according to accuracy (area under the ROC curve=AUC) of 10-year sarcoma-specific survival prediction. RESULTS: The AUC of the SAM model in 10-year survival prediction in the Helsinki patient series was 0.81 as compared with 0.74 for the SIN model (P=0.0007). The corresponding AUCs in the external validation series were 0.77 for the SAM model and 0.73 for the SIN model (P=0.03). A web-based calculator for the SAM model is available at http://www.prognomics.org/sam. CONCLUSION: Addition of grade, depth, and location as well as tumour size on a continuous scale significantly improved the accuracy of the prognostic model when compared with a model that includes only size, necrosis, and vascular invasion.

Adherence to isoniazid preventive therapy in children exposed to tuberculosis: a prospective study from Guinea-Bissau.

OBJECTIVE: To assess adherence to isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) in children exposed to adult pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) at home. METHODS: Children were enrolled on IPT if they were aged ≤ 5 years or 5-15 years and presented a tuberculin skin test induration of ≥ 10 mm. Children were included from the demographic surveillance system of the Bandim Health Project in Bissau, Guinea-Bissau. The main outcome measures were adherence, completion rates and side effects during 9 months of IPT. The main outcome was 6 consecutive months of at least 80% adherence. RESULTS: A total of 2631 children were identified as contacts of adult TB cases. Among the children identified, 1895 (72%) were evaluated for eligibility for IPT, and 820 were enrolled in the study: 609 were aged ≤ 5 years and 211 aged 5-15 years. A total of 79% of the prescribed doses were taken, with 65% of the children taking > 80% of their doses. In all, 51% completed more than 6 consecutive months of IPT. CONCLUSION: Overall adherence to IPT was better than previously reported from TB-endemic areas, with 76% of the children completing at least 6 months of treatment, with more than 80% adherence.

Simplified Bayesian sensitivity analysis for mismeasured and unobserved confounders.

We examine situations where interest lies in the conditional association between outcome and exposure variables, given potential confounding variables. Concern arises that some potential confounders may not be measured accurately, whereas others may not be measured at all. Some form of sensitivity analysis might be employed, to assess how this limitation in available data impacts inference. A Bayesian approach to sensitivity analysis is straightforward in concept: a prior distribution is formed to encapsulate plausible relationships between unobserved and observed variables, and posterior inference about the conditional exposure-disease relationship then follows. In practice, though, it can be challenging to form such a prior distribution in both a realistic and simple manner. Moreover, it can be difficult to develop an attendant Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that will work effectively on a posterior distribution arising from a highly nonidentified model. In this article, a simple prior distribution for acknowledging both poorly measured and unmeasured confounding variables is developed. It requires that only a small number of hyperparameters be set by the user. Moreover, a particular computational approach for posterior inference is developed, because application of MCMC in a standard manner is seen to be ineffective in this problem.

Use of instrumental variables in the analysis of generalized linear models in the presence of unmeasured confounding with applications to epidemiological research.

A major, often unstated, concern of researchers carrying out epidemiological studies of medical therapy is the potential impact on validity if estimates of treatment are biased due to unmeasured confounders. One technique for obtaining consistent estimates of treatment effects in the presence of unmeasured confounders is instrumental variables analysis (IVA). This technique has been well developed in the econometrics literature and is being increasingly used in epidemiological studies. However, the approach to IVA that is most commonly used in such studies is based on linear models, while many epidemiological applications make use of non-linear models, specifically generalized linear models (GLMs) such as logistic or Poisson regression. Here we present a simple method for applying IVA within the class of GLMs using the generalized method of moments approach. We explore some of the theoretical properties of the method and illustrate its use within both a simulation example and an epidemiological study where unmeasured confounding is suspected to be present. We estimate the effects of beta-blocker therapy on one-year all-cause mortality after an incident hospitalization for heart failure, in the absence of data describing disease severity, which is believed to be a confounder.

Experimental exposure to wood smoke: effects on airway inflammation and oxidative stress.

BACKGROUND: Particulate air pollution affects cardiovascular and pulmonary disease and mortality. A main hypothesis about the mechanisms involved is that particles induce inflammation in lower airways, systemic inflammation and oxidative stress. OBJECTIVES: To examine whether short-term exposure to wood smoke in healthy subjects affects markers of pulmonary inflammation and oxidative stress. METHODS: 13 subjects were exposed first to clean air and then to wood smoke in a chamber during 4-hour sessions, 1 week apart. The mass concentrations of fine particles at wood smoke exposure were 240-280 mug/m(3), and number concentrations were 95 000-180 000/cm(3), about half of the particles being ultrafine (<100 nm). Blood and breath samples were taken before and at various intervals after exposure to wood smoke and clean air and examined for exhaled nitric oxide and Clara cell protein in serum and urine, and malondialdehyde in exhaled breath condensate. RESULTS: Exposure to wood smoke increased alveolar nitric oxide 3 hours post-exposure while malondialdehyde levels in breath condensate were higher both immediately after and 20 hours after exposure. Serum Clara cell protein was increased 20 hours after exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Wood smoke at levels that can be found in smoky indoor environments caused an inflammatory response and signs of increased oxidative stress in the respiratory tract, especially in the lower airways.

Clinical predictors for death in HIV-positive and HIV-negative tuberculosis patients in Guinea-Bissau.

OBJECT: To assess easily monitored predictors for tuberculosis mortality. DESIGN: Risk factors for tuberculosis mortality were assessed during the 8-month treatment in 440 men and 269 women diagnosed with confirmed or presumed intrathoracic tuberculosis included prospectively in Guinea-Bissau from May 1996 to April 2001. A civil war occurred in the study area from June 1998 to May 1999. RESULTS: 12% were HIV-1 positive, 16% HIV-2 positive and 7% were HIV dually infected. Case fatality rates for HIV positive were higher during (35% [22/63]) and after the war (29% [27/92]) compared to before the war (17% [15/88]). The war did not have an effect on the case fatality rate in HIV negative (10% [13/135] before the war). HIV-1-infected patients had higher mortality than HIV-2 infected, mortality rate ratio (MRR) = 2.28 (95% confidence interval 1.17-4.46). Men had higher mortality than women but only among the HIV negative (MRR = 2.09 [0.95-4.59]). Hence, the negative impact of HIV infection on mortality was stronger in women (MRR = 6.51 [2.98-14.2]) than in men (MRR = 2.64 [1.67-4.17]) (test of homogeneity, p = 0.051). Anergy to tuberculin was associated with death in HIV positive (MRR = 2.77 [1.38-5.54]) but not in HIV negative (MRR = 1.14 [0.52-2.53]). Signs of immune deficiency, such as oral candida infection or leukoplakia (MRR = 4.25 [1.92-9.44]) and diarrhea (MRR = 2.15 [1.29-3.58] was associated with mortality in HIV positive. Tendencies were similar among HIV negative. HIV-positive relapse cases were at increased risk of dying (MRR = 2.42 [1.10-5.34]). Malnutrition, measured through mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), increased the risk of death. CONCLUSION: Easily monitored predictors for mortality in tuberculosis patients include clinical signs of immune deficiency and low MUAC.

Increased risk of malignancies in a population-based study of 818 soft-tissue sarcoma patients.

Soft-tissue sarcomas (STS) have been associated with various rare cancer syndromes and occur at increased frequencies in survivors of childhood cancer. Also adult patients with STS have been suggested to be at an increased risk of additional malignancies. After exclusion of syndrome-associated and radiation-induced sarcomas, we studied multiple primary malignancies in a population-based cohort of 818 patients with primary STS of the extremities and the trunk wall. In total, 203 other malignancies developed in 164 (20%) patients median 10 (0-32) years before and median 4 (0-35) years after the sarcoma diagnosis. Standardised morbidity ratios (SMRs) were determined for primary malignancies following a STS. Hereby individuals who had developed a STS were identified to be at increased risk of second primary malignancies (SMR for all malignant tumours=1.3; 95% CI=1.0-1.5; P=0.02) with STS being the only specific tumour type that occurred at an increased risk (SMR=17.6; 95% CI=8.1-33.5; P<0.001). Hence, this population-based series demonstrates a high frequency of second primary tumours among STS patients and indicates a particularly increased risk of developing a new STS.

Predictive value of soluble haemoglobin scavenger receptor CD163 serum levels for survival in verified tuberculosis patients.

Pre-treatment serum levels of sCD163 were measured in a cohort of 236 suspected tuberculosis (TB) cases from Guinea-Bissau, with a median follow-up period of 3.3 years (range 0-6.4 years). In 113 cases, the diagnosis of TB was verified by positive sputum microscopy and/or culture. Among the verified TB cases, a decreased survival rate was found in 27 patients with sCD163 levels above the upper reference limit (3.95 microg/mL). The difference in survival was significant during TB treatment (log rank, p<0.02) and after long-term follow-up (log rank, p<0.001). The decrease in survival rate during TB treatment remained significant in a multivariate Cox model controlling for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, age and gender, with a mortality increase of 1.19 (95% CI, 1.04-1.36) per microg of sCD163, and a hazard ratio (HR) for sCD163 levels above the upper reference limit of 4.18 (95% CI, 1.06-16.4). The difference was not significant after excluding patients with concomitant HIV-1 and HIV-2 infection in Kaplan-Meier analyses (log rank, p 0.11). In contrast, the difference in survival remained significant in Kaplan-Meier analyses after long-term follow-up, even after excluding patients with concomitant HIV-1 and HIV-2 infection (log rank, p 0.002). In the Cox model, the mortality increase per microg of sCD163 was 1.27 (95% CI, 1.14-1.40), with an HR for elevated sCD163 levels of 2.85 (95% CI, 1.44-5.63). The HRs for concomitant HIV-1 and HIV-2 infection were 6.92 (95% CI, 3.28-14.58) and 2.48 (95% CI, 1.09-5.67), respectively. Thus, sCD163 levels appeared to be an independent predictor of survival in verified TB patients.

Investigation of the risk factors for tuberculosis: a case-control study in three countries in West Africa.

BACKGROUND: Host-related and environment-related factors have been shown to play a role in the development of tuberculosis (TB), but few studies were carried out to identify their respective roles in resource-poor countries. METHODS: A multicentre case-control study was conducted in Guinée, Guinea Bissau, and The Gambia, from January 1999 to March 2001. Cases were newly detected smear positive TB patients. Two controls were recruited for each case, one within the household of the case, and one in the community. RESULTS: Regarding host-related factors, univariate analysis by conditional logistic regression of 687 matched pairs of cases and household controls showed that TB was associated with male sex, family history of TB, absence of a BCG scar, smoking, alcohol, anaemia, HIV infection, and history and treatment of worm infection. In a multivariable model based on 601 matched pairs, male sex, family history of TB, smoking, and HIV infection were independent risk factors of TB. The investigation of environmental factors based on the comparison of 816 cases/community control pairs showed that the risk of TB was associated with single marital status, family history of TB, adult crowding, and renting the house. In a final model assessing the combined effect of host and environmental factors, TB was associated with male sex, HIV infection, smoking (with a dose-effect relationship), history of asthma, family history of TB, marital status, adult crowding, and renting the house. CONCLUSION: TB is a multifactorial disorder, in which environment interacts with host-related factors. This study provided useful information for the assessment of host and environmental factors of TB for the improvement of TB control activities in developing countries.

Reduced case fatality among hospitalized children during a war in Guinea-Bissau: a lesson in equity.

BACKGROUND: During a recent armed conflict in Guinea-Bissau, we observed a marked decline in the case fatality among hospitalized children at the only paediatric department in the country. AIM: To analyse the causes behind the observed fall in case fatality. MATERIAL: All children hospitalized at the only paediatric department in the capital of Guinea-Bissau. The war cohort comprised all children hospitalized during the war, which lasted from June 1998 to May 1999, and the peace cohort comprised all children hospitalized in the year preceding the war. As part of a longitudinal community study, we also registered all children being hospitalized from the Bandim Health Project's study area, including routinely collected information on socio-economic background factors. METHODS: The war cohort was compared with the peace cohort in terms of determinants for hospital case fatality. Through information in the community register, we examined post-hospital mortality in the 2 wk after discharge as well as socio-economic differences in recruitment during the war. Hospital case fatality was estimated by odds ratios and compared by multiple logistic regression. Community mortality risk was estimated by deaths per person years. RESULTS: The case fatality among children aged 0-14 y fell during the war (age-adjusted OR = 0.58; 95% CI: 0.50-0.68). There was a uniform reduction in case fatality among children hospitalized less than 7 d, while we observed no decline among children hospitalized longer. There were more children per bed during the war and mean hospitalization time was shorter, and post-discharge mortality also fell (mortality ratio (MR) = 0.57; 95% CI: 0.40-0.83). Adjustment for socio-economic confounders in recruitment during the war period made no difference to the estimated decline in case fatality. The decline in case fatality at the hospital was not explained by a general decline in mortality. Compared with the preceding year, the mortality ratio was 1.34 (1.20-1.51) in the Bandim Health Project's study area during the war. Adjusted for age, the decline in case fatality at the hospital was most marked for disadvantaged groups. For example, the general reduction in case fatality was 42% (95% CI: 11-63); however, children of mothers without any schooling experienced a reduction of 73% (95% CI: 27-90%), whereas the reduction was only 33% (95% CI: 14-61%) for children of mothers with school education. CONCLUSION: The decline in case fatality could be explained neither by a general decline in childhood mortality nor by changes in recruitment or discharge policy. The decline was therefore most likely due to improved treatment as a result of better availability of drugs funded by humanitarian aid and the presence of dedicated staff, which was offered relief food as compensation. Interventions improving case management may have a proportionately larger effect for poor families.

Prognostic information in soft tissue sarcoma using tumour size, vascular invasion and microscopic tumour necrosis-the SIN-system.

We have earlier devised a system for soft tissue sarcoma (STS), based on three negative prognostic features: large tumour size, vascular invasion, and microscopic tumour necrosis, the SIN-system. Tumours which exhibit 2 or 3 of these features are categorised as high-risk, the others as low-risk. We have now tested this system for reproducibility both as regards recognition of its components, and as regards prognostic strength in patients from another institution. We have also compared it with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) system. 200 patients with STS were analysed, all had been treated by surgery, in 97 patients combined with radiotherapy. The median follow-up for the 117 survivors was 10 (1.5-27) years. Without knowledge of the clinical data, three groups of pathologists independently reviewed original slides from all of the tumours. Based on the factors, the tumours were classified as high-risk or low-risk. The prognostic strength was compared using the results obtained by the different observers. Concordance in recognition of vascular invasion, tumour necrosis, and overall grading was seen in 156 (78%), 154 (77%), and 167 (84%) of the 200 tumours, respectively. Based on the different observers' grading, the cumulative 5-year metastasis-free survival rate (MFSR) varied for patients with low-risk tumours between 0.85 and 0.80, and for patients with high-risk tumours between 0.48 and 0.43. The Kappa-value for grading between all three groups of observers was 0.77. The SIN-system gave more clinically useful prognostic information than the AJCC system. Useful prognostic information in STS can be obtained by using tumour size, vascular invasion and microscopic tumour necrosis. This system provides two distinct prognostic groups, and has a high reproducibility.

The serum level of soluble urokinase receptor is elevated in tuberculosis patients and predicts mortality during treatment: a community study from Guinea-Bissau.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the serum level of soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) carries prognostic information in individuals infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. DESIGN: suPAR was measured by ELISA in 262 individuals at the time of enrolment into a cohort based on suspicion of active tuberculosis and in 101 individuals after 8 months of follow-up. RESULTS: The suPAR levels were elevated in patients with active TB compared to TB-negative individuals (P < 0.001). suPAR levels were highest in patients positive for TB on direct microscopy (n = 84, median suPAR 3.17 ng/ml, P < 0.001), followed by patients negative on direct microscopy but culture positive (n = 35, median suPAR 2.41 ng/ml, P = 0.005) and by patients diagnosed on clinical grounds (n = 63, median suPAR 2.13 ng/ml, P = 0.06) compared to 64 TB-negative individuals (median suPAR 1.73 ng/ml). During the 8-month treatment period, 23 TB cases died. In a multivariate Cox model controlling for HIV status, age, sex, CD4 count and type of TB diagnosis, the mortality increase per ng suPAR was 1.25 (95%CI 1.12-1.40). After treatment, suPAR levels had decreased to the levels of TB-negative individuals. CONCLUSIONS: suPAR levels are elevated in TB patients and associated with mortality. Furthermore, suPAR may be a potential marker of treatment efficacy.