Predicting microbiologically defined infection in febrile neutropenic episodes in children: global individual participant data multivariable meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Risk-stratified management of fever with neutropenia (FN), allows intensive management of high-risk cases and early discharge of low-risk cases. No single, internationally validated, prediction model of the risk of adverse outcomes exists for children and young people. An individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis was undertaken to devise one. METHODS: The 'Predicting Infectious Complications in Children with Cancer' (PICNICC) collaboration was formed by parent representatives, international clinical and methodological experts. Univariable and multivariable analyses, using random effects logistic regression, were undertaken to derive and internally validate a risk-prediction model for outcomes of episodes of FN based on clinical and laboratory data at presentation. RESULTS: Data came from 22 different study groups from 15 countries, of 5127 episodes of FN in 3504 patients. There were 1070 episodes in 616 patients from seven studies available for multivariable analysis. Univariable analyses showed associations with microbiologically defined infection (MDI) in many items, including higher temperature, lower white cell counts and acute myeloid leukaemia, but not age. Patients with osteosarcoma/Ewings sarcoma and those with more severe mucositis were associated with a decreased risk of MDI. The predictive model included: malignancy type, temperature, clinically 'severely unwell', haemoglobin, white cell count and absolute monocyte count. It showed moderate discrimination (AUROC 0.723, 95% confidence interval 0.711-0.759) and good calibration (calibration slope 0.95). The model was robust to bootstrap and cross-validation sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This new prediction model for risk of MDI appears accurate. It requires prospective studies assessing implementation to assist clinicians and parents/patients in individualised decision making.

Two novel activating mutations in the Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome protein result in congenital neutropenia.

Severe congenital neutropenia (SCN) is characterized by neutropenia, recurrent bacterial infections, and maturation arrest in the bone marrow. Although many cases have mutations in the ELA2 gene encoding neutrophil elastase, a significant proportion remain undefined at a molecular level. A mutation (Leu270Pro) in the gene encoding the Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome protein (WASp) resulting in an X-linked SCN kindred has been reported. We therefore screened the WAS gene in 14 young SCN males with wild-type ELA2 and identified 2 with novel mutations, one who presented with myelodysplasia (Ile294Thr) and the other with classic SCN (Ser270Pro). Both patients had defects of immunologic function including a generalized reduction of lymphoid and natural killer cell numbers, reduced lymphocyte proliferation, and abrogated phagocyte activity. In vitro culture of bone marrow progenitors demonstrated a profound reduction in neutrophil production and increased levels of apoptosis, consistent with an intrinsic disturbance of normal myeloid differentiation as the cause of the neutropenia. Both mutations resulted in increased WASp activity and produced marked abnormalities of cytoskeletal structure and dynamics. Furthermore, these results also suggest a novel cause of myelodysplasia and that male children with myelodysplasia and disturbance of immunologic function should be screened for such mutations.

Treatment for myeloid leukaemia of Down syndrome: population-based experience in the UK and results from the Medical Research Council AML 10 and AML 12 trials.

Down syndrome (DS) children are at an increased risk of developing myelodysplasia and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). We retrospectively analysed the population-based data on 81 children with myeloid leukaemia of Down syndrome (ML-DS) from the UK National Registry of Childhood Tumours and experience in the Medical Research Council (MRC) AML 10 and AML 12 trials, which enrolled 46 children with ML-DS from 1988 to 2002. Eight per cent of UK children with AML had DS, but DS children comprised only 5% of children registered in MRC trials. The unique clinical characteristics of ML-DS were confirmed. Overall survival (OS) of ML-DS at 5 years increased from 47% in UK children diagnosed from 1988 to 1995 to 75% in children diagnosed from 1996 to 2002. OS for DS children registered in AML 10 and AML 12 was 74% in 5 years and improved from AML 10 to AML 12 (56% vs. 83%) There was no significant difference in OS between DS and non-DS children (OS: 74% vs. 62%, P = 0.4) in the trials, but this result masked a significant increase in early death amongst DS children, with a significant reduction in mortality later on. Relapse was significantly reduced (3% vs. 39%, P = 0.0003), leading to the improved disease-free survival (83% vs. 56%, P = 0.02). Given the increased number of early treatment-related deaths, future treatment protocols should aim to reduce chemotherapy dosage or intensity whilst maintaining low rates of resistant and recurrent disease.

Prospective gene expression analysis accurately subtypes acute leukaemia in children and establishes a commonality between hyperdiploidy and t(12;21) in acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

We have prospectively analysed and correlated the gene expression profiles of children presenting with acute leukaemia to the Royal London and Great Ormond Street Hospitals with morphological diagnosis, immunophenotype and karyotype. Total RNA extracted from freshly sorted blast cells was obtained from 84 lymphoblastic [acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL)], 20 myeloid [acute myeloid leukaemia (AML)] and three unclassified acute leukaemias and hybridised to the high density Affymetrix U133A oligonucleotide array. Analysis of variance and significance analysis of microarrays was used to identify discriminatory genes. A novel 50-gene set accurately identified all patients with ALL and AML and predicted for a diagnosis of AML in three patients with unclassified acute leukaemia. A unique gene set was derived for each of eight subtypes of acute leukaemia within our data set. A common profile for children with ALL with an ETV6-RUNX1 fusion, amplification or deletion of ETV6, amplification of RUNX1 or hyperdiploidy with an additional chromosome 21 was identified. This suggests that these rearrangements share a commonality in biological pathways that maintains the leukaemic state. The gene TERF2 was most highly expressed in this group of patients. Our analyses demonstrate that not only is microarray analysis the single most effective tool for the diagnosis of acute leukaemias of childhood but it has the ability to identify unique biological pathways. To further evaluate its prognostic value it needs to be incorporated into the routine diagnostic analysis for large-scale clinical trials in childhood acute leukaemias.

Three distinct subgroups of hypodiploidy in acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

This study of children and adults with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) is the largest series of patients with hypodiploidy (<46 chromosomes) yet reported. The incidence of 5% was independent of age. Patients were subdivided by the number of chromosomes; near-haploidy (23-29 chromosomes), low hypodiploidy (33-39 chromosomes) and high hypodiploidy (42-45 chromosomes). The near-haploid and low hypodiploid groups were characterized by their chromosomal gains and a doubled hyperdiploid population. Structural abnormalities were more frequent in the low hypodiploid group. Near-haploidy was restricted to children of median age 7 years (range 2-15) whereas low hypodiploidy occurred in an older group of median age 15 years (range 9-54). Patients with 42-45 chromosomes were characterized by complex karyotypes involving chromosomes 7, 9 and 12. The features shared by the few patients with 42-44 chromosomes and the large number with 45 justified their inclusion in the same group. Survival analysis showed a poor outcome for the near-haploid and low hypodiploid groups compared to those with 42-45 chromosomes. Thus cytogenetics, or at least a clear definition of the modal chromosome number, is essential at diagnosis in order to stratify patients with hypodiploidy into the appropriate risk group for treatment.

Long-term follow-up of relapsed childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

We have reviewed the outcome after relapse in a cohort of 505 children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) seen at a single institution. The majority of relapses (74%) occurred within 3 years from diagnosis, and most involved the bone marrow alone or with overt extramedullary relapse. Early relapse was more common in children with T-ALL and those with unfavourable cytogenetics. Factors influencing second remission included length of first remission and type of relapse. Children who had not received previous cranial irradiation had a superior survival. The German relapse score involving length of first remission, site of relapse and immunophenotype was highly predictive of outcome: event-free survival with 95% confidence intervals at 6 years for patients who received modern treatment [intensive chemotherapy or bone marrow transplantation (BMT)] was 78% (51-92%) for standard risk, 41% (33-49%) for intermediate risk and 19% (10-31%) for highest risk. Retrospective comparison of BMT with chemotherapy showed no difference in the intermediate-risk group but a possible advantage in the highest risk group. Follow-up of 235 patients who relapsed after chemotherapy and received a third course of treatment showed an extremely high early attrition rate, but a small number of patients survived in third remission. We conclude that new approaches are needed to individualize therapy in intermediate-risk patients and to improve the outcome for those in the highest risk group. Only a small number of children can be treated effectively in third remission.

Paediatric myelodysplastic syndromes and juvenile myelomonocytic leukaemia in the UK: a population-based study of incidence and survival.

We aimed to identify and classify cases of paediatric myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) occurring in Britain to estimate the incidence of this rare group of diseases, investigate the results of therapy and identify prognostic risk factors. Patients aged below 15 years at diagnosis were collected from England, Scotland and Wales, inclusively between 1990 and 1999. One hundred and thirty-five patients were accepted as de novo MDS or juvenile myelomonocytic leukaemia (JMML). The incidence for this period was 1.35 per million (age standardized rate) which is below that reported outside the UK. The overall survival was 45%[standard error (SE) = 4%] at 5 years: 40% (SE = 6%) for JMML and 50% (SE = 6%) for other MDS. Significant adverse prognostic factors for JMML were a platelet count < 40 x 10(9)/l, raised fetal haemoglobin, FPC score and age above 2 years at diagnosis, for other MDS only monosomy 7 was significant. To conclude, the incidence of MDS/JMML in children in the UK appears to be lower than that reported outside the UK. This may be either a real difference in incidence or variation in reporting. Monosomy 7 is associated with poor outcome in MDS other than JMML. The prognosis of JMML depends on age, platelet count and fetal haemoglobin.

Outcome heterogeneity in childhood high-hyperdiploid acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

High hyperdiploidy (HeH) (51 to 65 chromosomes) is found in one third of children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia and is associated with a good prognosis. Cytogenetic features may further refine this prognosis and identify patients with a poor outcome. We examined the effect of sex, age, individual trisomies, modal number, and structural abnormalities on survival among 700 children with HeH. Univariate analysis showed that age. sex, +4, +10, +18, and a high modal number were associated with survival. Multivariate analysis however, revealed that only age, sex, +4, and +18 were independent indicators. Hazard scores for predicting relapse and mortality were constructed. Three risk groups with 5-year event-free survival (EFS) rates of 86%, 75%, and 50% (P <.0001) were identified. The high-risk group comprised boys older than 9 years, boys aged 1 through 9 years without +18, and girls older than 9 years without +18, while girls aged 1 through 9 years with +18 had the best EFS. In terms of mortality, those younger than age 10 years with both +4 and +18 had an improved survival (96% vs 84% at 5 years, P <.0001). These findings confirm that the outcome of children with HeH is heterogeneous and that specific trisomies can identify patients with the greatest and least risk of treatment failure.

Intraocular relapse of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

Relapse of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) involving the eye is a rare but challenging problem. Twenty cases occurred in patients treated on the Medical Research Council United Kingdom Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia XI and ALL97 trials between 1991 and 2001, representing 2.2% of ALL relapses. Seventeen occurred as a first relapse, either in isolation or combined with relapse at another site, and three occurred as a second relapse. All patients with intraocular disease at first relapse were treated with both chemotherapy and radiotherapy, but the doses and protocols used varied. Eleven of these 17 patients are alive and in complete remission with a median follow up of 4 years 2 months from relapse. All 11 children that were treated with a full chemotherapy relapse protocol, together with local radiotherapy have survived. Patients treated with chemotherapy of shorter duration and intensity, despite radiotherapy and/or bone marrow transplantation, did poorly with only one survivor, currently in chronic relapse. Consequently, we suggest that children with eye relapse of ALL be treated with an intensive relapse chemotherapy protocol with local ocular radiotherapy, whether the relapse occurs in isolation or in combination with relapse at another site.

Prognostic factors and outcome for children after second central nervous system relapse of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

The Medical Research Council acute lymphoblastic leukaemia trials (UKALL X and XI) recruited 3,702 children with ALL between January 1985 and March 1997. Seventy-nine children had central nervous system (CNS) involvement in their first two relapses. Fourteen children survived at a median follow-up of 22 months from second relapse; seven (9%) in third remission, two in later remissions and five with disease. Factors predictive of survival from second relapse were site (isolated CNS was better than combined CNS, P = 0.02) and time from diagnosis to second CNS relapse (longer time was better, P = 0.004). Prognosis after second CNS relapse is extremely poor, and palliative therapy is appropriate.

Paternal mosaicism proves the pathogenic nature of mutations in neutrophil elastase in severe congenital neutropenia.

Heterozygous mutations in neutrophil elastase have been detected in many sporadic cases of congenital neutropenia. However, a convincing pathogenetic mechanism has not been established, and it is unclear whether the effects of the mutant enzyme occur within the cell of production or are paracrine in nature. The healthy father of a patient was demonstrated to be mosaic for his daughter's Cys42Arg elastase mutation. Using semiquantitative polymerase chain reaction, approximately half of his T cells were shown to carry the mutation in contrast to less than 10% of neutrophils. Individual hematopoietic colonies grown from peripheral blood were heterozygous for the mutation or were homozygous wild type. These results demonstrate that precursors containing the mutation are selectively lost during myelopoiesis or fail to develop into neutrophils. This is the first in vivo confirmation of the pathogenic nature of elastase mutations in humans. The normal neutrophil count in the father suggests that the mutant elastase does not have paracrine effects.

The value of allogeneic bone marrow transplant in patients with acute myeloid leukaemia at differing risk of relapse: results of the UK MRC AML 10 trial.

Patients under 55 years in the United Kingdom Medical Research Council Acute Myeloid Leukaemia 10 trial who entered complete remission were tissue typed (n = 1063). Four hundred and nineteen had a matched sibling donor and 644 had no match. When compared on a donor versus no donor basis the relapse risk was reduced in the donor arm (36%vs 52%; P = 0.001) and the disease-free survival (DFS) improved (50%vs 42%; P = 0.01), but overall survival (OS) was not different (55%vs 50%; P = 0.1). Sixty-one per cent of patients with a donor underwent transplantation. When patients were subdivided into risk groups based on cytogenetics alone or with the addition of blast response to course 1, a reduction in relapse risk was seen in all risk groups and in three age cohorts (0-14, 15-34 and 35+ years). Significant benefit in DFS was only seen in the intermediate-risk cytogenetic group (50%vs 39%; P = 0.004). The OS benefit was only seen in intermediate-risk patients (55%vs 44%; P = 0.02). The reduction in relapse risk in good-risk patients was attributable to patients with t(15;17) and not to patients with t(8;21) or inv(16). Allogeneic transplantation given after intensive chemotherapy was able to reduce relapse in all risk and age groups. However, due to the competing effects of procedural mortality and an inferior response to chemotherapy if relapse does occur, there was a survival advantage only in patients of intermediate risk. This trial found no survival advantage in children, patients over 35 years or good-risk disease.

Failure of a new protocol to improve treatment results in paediatric lymphoblastic leukaemia: lessons from the UK Medical Research Council trials UKALL X and UKALL XI.

The impact of various types of intensification therapy was examined in a cohort of 3617 children aged 1-14 years with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) enrolled in the Medical Research Council (MRC) UKALL X (1985-90) and UKALL XI (1990-97) trials. UKALL XI was modified in 1992 to incorporate the "best arm" of UKALL X with two 5-d intensification blocks at 5 and 20 weeks, and an additional randomization in respect of a third intensification at 35 weeks but omission of two consecutive injections of daunorubicin during induction. All children were eligible for randomization irrespective of risk group. The impact of the various types of intensification therapy was examined in a stratified analysis. At a median follow up of 102 months, both trials had an identical event-free survival of 61% (95% CI 58-63%) at 8 years. Survival at 8 years in UKALL XI was significantly better in than in UKALL X, 81% (79-83%) compared with 74% (72-76%) (P = < 0.001), owing to improved management of relapse. There was a highly significant trend in reduction of the number of relapses and deaths with increased intensity of therapy both for children with initial leucocyte count < 50 x 10(9)/l (P = < 0.001) and > or = 50 x 10(9)/l (P = 0.002). Introduction of a third late intensification block compensated for omission of anthracyclines during induction but produced little additional benefit. These results show, in a large cohort of patients, that minor modifications of therapy may influence relapse rate and obviate the benefit of previous randomized trials. The failure to adapt treatment for higher risk children contributed to these disappointing results.

Results of treatment of children with refractory anaemia with excess blasts (RAEB) and RAEB in transformation (RAEBt) in Great Britain 1990-99.

Between 1990 and 1999, 36 children with refractory anaemia with excess blasts (RAEB) and RAEB in transformation (RAEBt), not associated with Down's syndrome, were diagnosed in Britain. A total of 31 children received intensive chemotherapy, six of whom proceeded to a bone marrow allograft in first remission, whereas two received an autograft. Of the 23 given chemotherapy only, four died of toxicity, 10 relapsed and nine are alive in first remission. Out of the 10 who relapsed, four are alive and disease-free following an allograft. Out of the 6 children given an allograft in first remission, two died of disease and four are alive in first remission. Both children given an autograft died of disease. Two children received an allograft without prior chemotherapy but died of toxicity. Three children received supportive care only, and one child survived. The overall survival was 51% at 5 years, and was superior in children with RAEBt (63%) compared with RAEB (28%, P = 0.03). Cytogenetics were available in 35 cases. Monosomy 7 was the most common abnormality (33% of cases). Survival in children with monosomy 7 was 22% at 5 years compared with 66% for the other patients (P = 0.05). Allowing for cytogenetics, outcomes of therapy appear similar to those for de novo acute myeloid leukaemia (AML), and it is appropriate for children with RAEB/RAEBt to be registered in AML trials.