The Lasting Effects of Early-Childhood Education on Promoting the Skills and Social Mobility of Disadvantaged African Americans and Their Children.

This paper demonstrates the long-term intragenerational and intergenerational benefits of the HighScope Perry Preschool Project, which targeted disadvantaged African-American children. We use newly collected data on the original participants through late middle age and on their children into their mid-twenties. We document long-lasting improvements in the original participants' skills, marriage stability, earnings, criminal behavior, and health. Beneficial program impacts through the childrearing years translate into better family environments for their children leading to intergenerational gains. Children of the original participants have higher levels of education and employment, lower levels of criminal activity, and better health than children of the controls.

Comparing China REACH and the Jamaica Home Visiting Program.

OBJECTIVES: Delayed child skill development is a common phenomenon in low- and middle-income countries. Effective and low-cost strategies suitable for application to less-developed countries are needed. We summarize empirical findings from recent papers that study a replication of the Jamaica Reach Up and Learn home visiting program in China, China REACH, and compare child skill growth profiles in the China Reach Up and Jamaica interventions. METHODS: Different interventions often use different measures for assessing early childhood skill development. To estimate the growth of underlying skills across programs, we address the challenge that different programs use different assessments. We use a modified version of the Rasch model to anchor scores on common items to estimate skill development. RESULTS: Language skill growth curves are comparable for both interventions. This pattern is consistent for the treatment and control groups across the interventions. Skill growth curves are not statistically significantly different between China REACH and Jamaican interventions. We find evidence of the importance of early investment. CONCLUSIONS: The China REACH intervention significantly improves the development of multiple skills. At the same ages, treatment effect sizes and skill growth curves are comparable across the Jamaica and China REACH interventions, despite differences in scale and cultural settings. The scale of the program is much greater in China than in Jamaica, showing that the Jamaican curriculum can be effectively expanded to larger populations. Annual costs per child are roughly $500 (2015 US dollars).

Parenting Promotes Social Mobility Within and Across Generations.

This paper compares early childhood enrichment programs that promote social mobility for disadvantaged children within and across generations. Instead of conducting a standard meta-analysis, we present a harmonized primary data analysis of programs that shape current policy. Our analysis is a template for rigorous syntheses and comparisons across programs. We analyze new long-run life-cycle data collected for iconic programs when participants are middle-aged and their children are in their twenties. The iconic programs are omnibus in nature and offer many services to children and their parents. We compare them with relatively low-cost more focused home-visiting programs. Successful interventions target both children and their caregivers. They engage caregivers and improve the home lives of children. They permanently boost cognitive and non-cognitive skills. Participants in programs that enrich home environments grow up with better skills, jobs, earnings, marital stability, and health, as well as reduced participation in crime. Long-run monetized gains are substantially greater than program costs for the iconic programs. We investigate the mechanisms promoting successful family lives for participants and report intergenerational effects on their children. A study of focused home-visiting programs that target parents enables us to isolate a crucial component of successful programs: they activate and promote parenting skills of child caregivers. The home-visiting programs we analyze produce outcomes comparable to those of the iconic omnibus programs. National implementation of the programs with long-run follow up that we analyze would substantially shrink the overall US Black-White earnings gap.

Comparing the reliability and predictive power of child, teacher, and guardian reports of noncognitive skills.

Children's noncognitive or socioemotional skills (e.g., persistence and self-control) are typically measured using surveys in which either children rate their own skills or adults rate the skills of children. For many purposes-including program evaluation and monitoring school systems-ratings are often collected from multiple perspectives about a single child (e.g., from both the child and an adult). Collecting data from multiple perspectives is costly, and there is limited evidence on the benefits of this approach. Using a longitudinal survey, this study compares children's noncognitive skills as reported by themselves, their guardians, and their teachers. Although reports from all three types of respondents are correlated with each other, teacher reports have the highest internal consistency and are the most predictive of children's later cognitive outcomes and behavior in school. The teacher reports add predictive power beyond baseline measures of Intelligence Quotient (IQ) for most outcomes in schools. Measures collected from children and guardians add minimal predictive power beyond the teacher reports.

Cognitive, psychosocial, and behaviour gains at age 31 years from the Jamaica early childhood stimulation trial.

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence on adult benefits from early childhood interventions in low and middle-income countries. We assessed adult cognition, psychosocial skills and behaviour from a stimulation trial conducted in Jamaica. METHODS: Children with stunted growth (height-for age <-2SD of references) aged 9-24 months were enrolled in a two-year randomised-controlled trial of nutritional supplementation and/or stimulation. At mean age 31.79 (SD 0.40) years, 95 of 127 participants (74.8%; 53.7% male) were assessed. Children without stunted growth were also followed as a comparison group (64 of 84 participants, 76.2%). Measurements included IQ, executive function, mental health, psychosocial skills, personality traits and risk behaviours. A block permutation test, valid for small sample sizes, was used. Analyses accounted for the randomisation protocol, multiple hypothesis testing and attrition. RESULTS: Treatment group participants (stimulation intervention with or without supplementation, n = 48) had significantly greater IQ (Hedges g effect size 0. 57; 95%CI 0.20, 0.95) and cognitive flexibility (0.61; 0.25, 0.98) compared with no-treatment (no-intervention and supplementation only, n = 47). They also had reduced depressive symptoms (0.61; 0.28, 1.00), increased grit (0.53; 0.16, 0.92) and conscientiousness (0.66; 0.31, 1.07), lower substance use (rank mean score, 0.45; 0.08, 0.81) and risk taking related to health and work (0.64; 0.27, 1.00). There were 18 significant outcomes of 33 assessed. Comparison participants had higher IQ than no-treatment (1.17; 0.81, 1.54) and treatment groups (0.62; 0.18, 1.07); and better executive function, lower social inhibition and risk taking than the no-treatment group. CONCLUSIONS: The wide-ranging benefits at 31 years from the stimulation intervention supports investment in larger scale programmes to promote early childhood development in disadvantaged children. The lower IQ in the treatment group compared with comparison participants, emphasises the need for continued efforts to prevent early childhood growth retardation.

Causal Inference of Social Experiments using Orthogonal Designs.

Orthogonal Arrays are a powerful class of experimental designs that has been widely used to determine efficient arrangements of treatment factors in randomized controlled trials. Despite its popularity, the method is seldom used in social sciences. Social experiments must cope with randomization compromises such as noncompliance that often prevents the use of elaborate designs. We present a novel application of orthogonal designs that addresses the particular challenges arising in social experiments. We characterize the identification of counterfactual variables as a finite mixture problem in which choice incentives, rather than treatment factors, are randomly assigned. We show that the causal inference generated by an orthogonal array of incentives greatly outperforms a traditional design.

Using a Satisficing Model of Experimenter Decision-Making to Guide Finite-Sample Inference for Compromised Experiments.

This paper presents a simple decision-theoretic economic approach for analyzing social experiments with compromised random assignment protocols that are only partially documented. We model administratively constrained experimenters who satisfice in seeking covariate balance. We develop design-based small-sample hypothesis tests that use worst-case (least favorable) randomization null distributions. Our approach accommodates a variety of compromised experiments, including imperfectly documented re-randomization designs. To make our analysis concrete, we focus much of our discussion on the influential Perry Preschool Project. We reexamine previous estimates of program effectiveness using our methods. The choice of how to model reassignment vitally affects inference.

Early childhood education and life-cycle health.

This study forecasts the life-cycle treatment effects on health of a high-quality early childhood program. Our predictions combine microsimulation using nonexperimental data with experimental data from a midlife long-term follow-up. The follow-up incorporated a full epidemiological exam. The program mainly benefits males and significantly reduces the prevalence of heart disease, stroke, cancer, and mortality across the life-cycle. For men, we estimate an average reduction of 3.8 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The reduction in DALYs is relatively small for women. The gain in quality-adjusted life years is almost enough to offset all of the costs associated with program implementation for males and half of program costs for women.

Quantifying the Life-Cycle Benefits of an Influential Early-Childhood Program.

This paper quantifies and aggregates the multiple lifetime benefits of an influential high-quality early childhood program with outcomes measured through midlife. Guided by economic theory, we supplement experimental data with non-experimental data to forecast the life-cycle benefits and costs of the program. Our point estimate of the internal rate of return is 13.7% with an associated benefit/cost ratio of 7.3. We account for model estimation and forecasting error and present estimates from extensive sensitivity analyses. This paper is a template for synthesizing experimental and non-experimental data using economic theory to estimate the long-run life-cycle benefits of social programs.

Sensitivity of self-reported noncognitive skills to survey administration conditions.

Noncognitive skills (e.g., persistence and self-control) are typically measured using self-reported questionnaires in which respondents rate their own skills. In many applications-including program evaluation and school accountability systems-such reports are assumed to measure only the skill of interest. However, self-reports might also capture other dimensions aside from the skill, such as aspects of a respondent's situation, which could include incentives and the conditions in which they complete the questionnaire. To explore this possibility, this study conducted 2 experiments to estimate the extent to which survey administration conditions can affect student responses on noncognitive skill questionnaires. The first experiment tested whether providing information about the importance of noncognitive skills to students directly affects their responses, and the second experiment tested whether incentives tied to performance on another task indirectly affect responses. Both experiments suggest that self-reports of noncognitive skills are sensitive to survey conditions. The effects of the conditions are relatively large compared with those found in the program evaluation literature, ranging from 0.05 to 0.11 SDs. These findings suggest that the effects of interventions or other social policies on self-reported noncognitive skills should be interpreted with caution.

Early childhood education and crime.

This article presents new evidence on the crime-reducing impacts of a high-quality, intensive early childhood program with long-term follow-up, evaluated by a randomized controlled trial. Proportionately, more women than men decrease their criminal activity after participating in the program. This gender difference arises because of the worse home environments for girls, with corresponding greater scope for improvement by the program. For both genders, treatment effects are larger for the least-advantaged children, as measured by their mother's education at baseline. The dollar value of the social cost of criminal activity averted is higher for men because they commit more costly violent crimes.

Gender Differences in the Benefits of an Influential Early Childhood Program.

This paper studies the life-cycle impacts of a widely-emulated high-quality, intensive early childhood program with long-term follow up. The program starts early in life (at 8 weeks of age) and is evaluated by an RCT. There are multiple treatment effects which we summarize through interpretable aggregates. Girls have a greater number of statistically significant treatment effects than boys and effect sizes for them are generally bigger. The source of this difference is worse home environments for girls with greater scope for improvement by the program. Fathers of sons support their families more than fathers of daughters.

Returns to Education: The Causal Effects of Education on Earnings, Health, and Smoking.

This paper estimates returns to education using a dynamic model of educational choice that synthesizes approaches in the structural dynamic discrete choice literature with approaches used in the reduced form treatment effect literature. It is an empirically robust middle ground between the two approaches which estimates economically interpretable and policy-relevant dynamic treatment effects that account for heterogeneity in cognitive and non-cognitive skills and the continuation values of educational choices. Graduating college is not a wise choice for all. Ability bias is a major component of observed educational differentials. For some, there are substantial causal effects of education at all stages of schooling.

The Nonmarket Benefits of Education and Ability.

This paper analyzes the non-market benefits of education and ability. Using a dynamic model of educational choice we estimate returns to education that account for selection bias and sorting on gains. We investigate a range of non-market outcomes including incarceration, mental health, voter participation, trust, and participation in welfare. We find distinct patterns of returns that depend on the levels of schooling and ability. Unlike the monetary benefits of education, the benefits to education for many non-market outcomes are greater for low-ability persons. College graduation decreases welfare use, lowers depression, and raises self-esteem more for less-able individuals.

Evaluation of the Reggio Approach to Early Education.

We evaluate the Reggio Approach using non-experimental data on individuals from the cities of Reggio Emilia, Parma and Padova belonging to one of five age cohorts: ages 50, 40, 30, 18, and 6 as of 2012. The treated were exposed to municipally offered infant-toddler (ages 0-3) and preschool (ages 3-6) programs. The control group either did not receive formal childcare or were exposed to programs offered by the state or religious systems. We exploit the city-cohort structure of the data to estimate treatment effects using three strategies: difference-in-differences, matching, and matched-difference-in-differences. Most positive and significant effects are generated from comparisons of the treated with individuals who did not receive formal childcare. Relative to not receiving formal care, the Reggio Approach significantly boosts outcomes related to employment, socio-emotional skills, high school graduation, election participation, and obesity. Comparisons with individuals exposed to alternative forms of childcare do not yield strong patterns of positive and significant effects. This suggests that differences between the Reggio Approach and other alternatives are not sufficiently large to result in significant differences in outcomes. This interpretation is supported by our survey, which documents increasing similarities in the administrative and pedagogical practices of childcare systems in the three cities over time.

Unordered Monotonicity.

This paper defines and analyzes a new monotonicity condition for the identification of counterfactuals and treatment effects in unordered discrete choice models with multiple treatments, heterogenous agents and discrete-valued instruments. Unordered monotonicity implies and is implied by additive separability of choice of treatment equations in terms of observed and unobserved variables. These results follow from properties of binary matrices developed in this paper. We investigate conditions under which unordered monotonicity arises as a consequence of choice behavior. We characterize IV estimators of counterfactuals as solutions to discrete mixture problems.

Inequality in Human Capital and Endogenous Credit Constraints.

This paper investigates the determinants of inequality in human capital with an emphasis on the role of the credit constraints. We develop and estimate a model in which individuals face uninsured human capital risks and invest in education, acquire work experience, accumulate assets and smooth consumption. Agents can borrow from the private lending market and from government student loan programs. The private market credit limit is explicitly derived by extending the natural borrowing limit of Aiyagari (1994) to incorporate endogenous labor supply, human capital accumulation, psychic costs of working, and age. We quantify the effects of cognitive ability, noncognitive ability, parental education, and parental wealth on educational attainment, wages, and consumption. We conduct counterfactual experiments with respect to tuition subsidies and enhanced student loan limits and evaluate their effects on educational attainment and inequality. We compare the performance of our model with an influential ad hoc model in the literature with education-specific fixed loan limits. We find evidence of substantial life cycle credit constraints that affect human capital accumulation and inequality. The constrained fall into two groups: those who are permanently poor over their lifetimes and a group of well-endowed individuals with rising high levels of acquired skills who are constrained early in their life cycles. Equalizing cognitive and noncognitive ability has dramatic effects on inequality. Equalizing parental backgrounds has much weaker effects. Tuition costs have weak effects on inequality.

The Scandinavian Fantasy: The Sources of Intergenerational Mobility in Denmark and the US.

This paper examines the sources of differences in social mobility between the U.S. and Denmark. Measured by income mobility, Denmark is a more mobile society, but not when measured by educational mobility. There are pronounced nonlinearities in income and educational mobility in both countries. Greater Danish income mobility is largely a consequence of redistributional tax, transfer, and wage compression policies. While Danish social policies for children produce more favorable cognitive test scores for disadvantaged children, these do not translate into more favorable educational outcomes, partly because of disincentives to acquire education arising from the redistributional policies that increase income mobility.

Social Policy: Targeting programs effectively.

By linking data from a 40-year birth cohort study with multiple administrative databases, Caspi and colleagues show that 20% of the population accounts for 60% - 80% of several adult social ills. Outcomes for this group can be accurately predicted from as early as age 3, using a small set of indicators of disadvantage. This finding supports policies that target children from disadvantaged families and complements recent literature on the life-cycle benefits of early childhood programmes.