Estimand Framework and Statistical Considerations for Integrated Analysis of Clinical Trial Safety Data.

BACKGROUND: Safety analyses play a pivotal role in drug development, ensuring the protection of patients while advancing innovative pharmaceuticals to market. A single study generally does not have sufficient sample size to evaluate all important safety events with reasonable precision and may not cover the full target population for the investigational treatment. Integrated analyses (pooled or meta-analysis) over several studies may be helpful in that regard. But without a structured conscious workflow accompanied with appropriate statistical methods for the integrated analysis, this can easily take a route compromising the interpretation. METHODS: In this article we apply the ICH estimand framework to clinical trial integration and summarize respective critical statistical assumptions to ensure the integrated analyses are interpretable. RESULTS: The estimand framework is valuable for developing principles for a deeper understanding of the critical statistical aspects of planning an integrated safety analysis. Our principles address the clinical question of interest, estimand and estimation. Special focus was given to the criteria for inclusion and exclusion of the component studies in the integrated analysis, and to integration of estimates pertaining to signal detection. CONCLUSION: Performing an integrated analysis and its preparatory steps calls for a good understanding of the clinical question of interest and its estimand, care and sound practice, to enable interpretation and avoid introducing unnecessary bias. It is valuable to use the estimand framework not only for efficacy evaluations, but also for safety evaluations in clinical trials and for integrated safety analyses.

A safety estimand for late phase clinical trials where the analysis period varies over the subjects.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Evaluating safety is as important as evaluating efficacy in a clinical trial, yet the tradition for safety analysis is rudimentary. This article explores more complex methodologies for safety evaluation, with the aim of improving the interpretability, as well as generalizability, of the results. METHODS: For studies where the analysis periods vary over the subjects, using the International Council for Harmonisation estimand framework, we construct a formal estimand that could be used in the setting of safety surveillance that answers the clinical question of 'What is the magnitude of the increase in risk of experiencing an adverse event if the treatment is taken, as prescribed, for a specific period of time?'. Estimation methodologies for this estimand are also discussed. RESULTS: The proposed estimand is similar to that found in the efficacy analyses of time to event data (e.g. in outcome studies), with the key difference of utilization of hypothetical intercurrent event strategy for the intercurrent event of treatment discontinuation. This is motivated by what we perceive to be a key difference for the safety objective compared to efficacy objectives, namely a desire for sensitivity (i.e. greater possibility of detecting a negative impact of the drug, if such exists) as opposed to the need to prove a positive effect of the drug in a conservative manner. CONCLUSION: It is valuable, and possible, to use the International Council for Harmonisation estimand framework not only for efficacy but also for safety evaluation, with the estimand driven by an interpretable, and relevant, clinical question.

Randomised, blinded, cross-over evaluation of the palatability of and preference for different potassium binders in participants with chronic hyperkalaemia in the USA, Canada and Europe: the APPETIZE study.

OBJECTIVES: Traditional potassium (K+) binders for treating hyperkalaemia are unpalatable and poorly tolerated. Newer K+ binders are reportedly better tolerated; however, no published data describe their palatability, a determinant of long-term adherence. This study evaluated the palatability of and preference for three K+ binders: sodium and calcium polystyrene sulfonate (S/CPS), sodium zirconium cyclosilicate (SZC) and calcium patiromer sorbitex (patiromer). DESIGN: Phase 4, randomised, participant-blinded, cross-over study. Participants were randomised to one of six taste sequences and, using a 'sip and spit' approach, tasted each K+ binder before completing a survey. SETTING: 17 centres across the USA, Canada and European Union. PARTICIPANTS: 144 participants with chronic kidney disease, hyperkalaemia and no recent use of K+ binders. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: For the primary (USA) and key secondary (Canada and European Union) endpoints, participants rated palatability attributes (taste, texture, smell and mouthfeel) and willingness to take each K+ binder on a scale of 0-10 (rational evaluation). Feelings about each attribute, and the idea of taking the product once daily, were evaluated using a non-verbal, visual measure of emotional response. Finally, participants ranked the K+ binders according to palatability. RESULTS: In each region, SZC and patiromer outperformed S/CPS on overall palatability (a composite of taste, texture, smell and mouthfeel), based on rational evaluation and emotional response. Taking the product once daily was more appealing for SZC and patiromer, creating greater receptivity than the idea of taking S/CPS. The emotional response to mouthfeel had the strongest influence on feelings about taking each product. In each region, a numerically greater proportion of participants ranked SZC as the most preferred K+ binder versus patiromer or S/CPS. CONCLUSIONS: Preference for more palatable K+ binders such as SZC and patiromer may provide an opportunity to improve adherence to long-term treatment of hyperkalaemia. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04566653.

Long-term outcomes among stable post-acute myocardial infarction patients living in rural versus urban areas: insights from the prospective, observational TIGRIS registry.

BACKGROUND: Insights on the differences in clinical outcomes, quality of life (QoL) and health resource utilisation (HRU) with different levels of care available to post-acute myocardial infarction (AMI) populations in rural and urban settings are limited. METHODS: The long-Term rIsk, clinical manaGement, and healthcare Resource utilisation of stable coronary artery dISease (TIGRIS), a prospective, observational registry, enrolled 8452 patients aged ≥50 years 1-3 years post-AMI from June 2013 to November 2014 from 24 countries in Asia Pacific/Australia, Europe, North America and South America. Differences in QoL (measured using the EuroQol Research Foundation instrument) and HRU between patients in rural and urban settings were evaluated in this post hoc analysis. The incidence of clinical endpoints (cardiovascular (CV) death, AMI, unstable angina with urgent revascularisation and stroke; bleeding; and all-cause mortality) was analysed. Data were collected at baseline and every 6 months for 24 months. RESULTS: There were fewer hospitalisations and visits to general practitioners (GPs) and cardiologists in the rural versus urban populations (adjusted event rate ratio (ERR)=0.90 (95% CI, 0.82 to 1.00, p=0.04); ERR=0.84 (95% CI, 0.78 to 0.92, p<0.001); ERR=0.86 (95% CI, 0.81 to 0.92, p<0.001), respectively). No statistically significant differences were observed between rural and urban populations in all-cause death, AMI, unstable angina with urgent revascularisation, CV death, stroke, major bleeding events and health-related QoL. The adjusted incidence rate ratio was 0.92 (95% CI, 0.74 to 1.15) for the composite of CV death, AMI and stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Living in rural areas was associated with fewer GP/cardiologist visits and hospitalisations; no significant differences in clinical outcomes and QoL were observed. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01866904.

Rates of adverse clinical events in patients with chronic kidney disease: analysis of electronic health records from the UK clinical practice research datalink linked to hospital data.

BACKGROUND: Further understanding of adverse clinical event rates in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is required for improved quality of care. This study described baseline characteristics, adverse clinical event rates, and mortality risk in patients with CKD, accounting for CKD stage and dialysis status. METHODS: This retrospective, noninterventional cohort study included data from adults (aged ≥ 18 years) with two consecutive estimated glomerular filtration rates of < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2, recorded ≥ 3 months apart, from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink of electronic health records obtained between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2017. Select adverse clinical events, associated with CKD and difficult to quantify in randomized trials, were assessed; defined by Read codes and International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes. Clinical event rates were assessed by dialysis status (dialysis-dependent [DD], incident dialysis-dependent [IDD], or non-dialysis-dependent [NDD]), dialysis modality (hemodialysis [HD] or peritoneal dialysis [PD]), baseline NDD-CKD stage (3a-5), and observation period. RESULTS: Overall, 310,953 patients with CKD were included. Comorbidities were more common in patients receiving dialysis than in NDD-CKD, and increased with advancing CKD stage. Rates of adverse clinical events, particularly hyperkalemia and infection/sepsis, also increased with advancing CKD stage and were higher in patients on HD versus PD. Mortality risk during follow-up (1-5-year range) was lowest in patients with stage 3a NDD-CKD (2.0-18.5%) and highest in patients with IDD-CKD (26.3-58.4%). CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the need to monitor patients with CKD for comorbidities and complications, as well as signs or symptoms of clinical adverse events.

Epidemiology and outcomes in patients with anemia of CKD not on dialysis from a large US healthcare system database: a retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Optimal management of anemia of chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains controversial. This retrospective study aimed to describe the epidemiology and selected clinical outcomes of anemia in patients with CKD in the US. METHODS: Data were extracted from Henry Ford Health System databases. Adults with stages 3a-5 CKD not on dialysis (estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73m2) between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2017 were identified. Patients on renal replacement therapy or with active cancer or bleeding were excluded. Patients were followed for ≥12 months until December 31, 2018. Outcomes included incidence rates per 100 person-years (PY) of anemia (hemoglobin < 10 g/dL), renal and major adverse cardiovascular events, and of bleeding and hospitalization outcomes. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models identified factors associated with outcomes after 1 and 5 years. RESULTS: Among the study cohort (N = 50,701), prevalence of anemia at baseline was 23.0%. Treatments used by these patients included erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (4.1%), iron replacement (24.2%), and red blood cell transfusions (11.0%). Anemia incidence rates per 100 PY in patients without baseline anemia were 7.4 and 9.7 after 1 and 5 years, respectively. Baseline anemia was associated with increased risk of renal and major cardiovascular events, hospitalizations (all-cause and for bleeding), and transfusion requirements. Increasing CKD stage was associated with increased risk of incident anemia, renal and major adverse cardiovascular events, and hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: Anemia was a prevalent condition associated with adverse renal, cardiovascular, and bleeding/hospitalization outcomes in US patients with CKD. Anemia treatment was infrequent.

Evaluating a Cox marginal structural model to assess the comparative effectiveness of inhaled corticosteroids versus no inhaled corticosteroid treatment in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the potential of a Cox marginal structural model (MSM) to estimate the time-varying causal inference of a known clinical trial association where the effectiveness of inhaled corticosteroid- (ICS-) versus non-ICS-containing treatments has been compared in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: This retrospective study from 2006-2016 used linked data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD, Hospital Episode Statistics, and Office for National Statistics mortality. A Cox MSM, incorporating a new-user design, was deemed capable of replicating a clinical trial-like pathway. Repeated outcomes for exacerbation events and stabilized weights were used to include time-varying and fixed covariate exposures. RESULTS: Of 45,958 patients, 55% were male; 52% had moderate COPD. ICS-treated patients had a higher incidence of comorbid asthma than non-ICS-treated patients. Adjusted hazard risk ratios for any exacerbation event: ICS and/or long-acting ß2-agonist (LABA) versus long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA), 1.07 (95% confidence interval 1.04-1.10); ICS/LABA versus LABA and/or LAMA, 1.05 (1.00-1.10); ICS and/or LABA and/or LAMA versus LAMA, 1.04 (1.01-1.06); ICS and/or LABA and/or LAMA versus LABA and/or LAMA 1.02 (0.97-1.07). CONCLUSIONS: The Cox MSM was not able to fully demonstrate results consistent with the previously established benefits of ICS-containing treatments seen in clinical trials. Future studies should continue to investigate causal inference methods and their capability to estimate the long-term outcomes of treatment in COPD.

Atrial fibrillation and clinical outcomes 1 to 3 years after myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVE: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and myocardial infarction (MI) are commonly comorbid and associated with adverse outcomes. Little is known about the impact of AF on quality of life and outcomes post-MI. We compared characteristics, quality of life and clinical outcomes in stable patients post-MI with/without AF. METHODS/RESULTS: The prospective, international, observational TIGRIS (long Term rIsk, clinical manaGement and healthcare Resource utilization of stable coronary artery dISease) registry included 8406 patients aged ≥50 years with ≥1 atherothrombotic risk factor who were 1-3 years post-MI. Patient characteristics were summarised by history of AF. Quality of life was assessed at baseline using EQ-5D. Clinical outcomes over 2 years of follow-up were compared. History of AF was present in 702/8277 (8.5%) registry patients and incident AF was diagnosed in 244/7575 (3.2%) over 2 years. Those with AF were older and had more comorbidities than those without AF. After multivariable adjustment, patients with AF had lower self-reported quality-of-life scores (EQ-5D UK-weighted index, visual analogue scale, usual activities and pain/discomfort) than those without AF. CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 was present in 686/702 (97.7%) patients with AF, although only 348/702 (49.6%) were on oral anticoagulants at enrolment. Patients with AF had higher rates of all-cause hospitalisation (adjusted rate ratio 1.25 [1.06-1.46], p=0.008) over 2 years than those without AF, but similar rates of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In stable patients post-MI, those with AF were commonly undertreated with oral anticoagulants, had poorer quality of life and had increased risk of clinical outcomes than those without AF. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials: NCT01866904.

Hyperkalemia excursions are associated with an increased risk of mortality and hospitalizations in hemodialysis patients.

BACKGROUND: Hyperkalemia is common among hemodialysis (HD) patients and has been associated with adverse clinical outcomes. Previous studies considered a single serum potassium (K) measurement or time-averaged values, but serum K excursions out of the target range may be more reflective of true hyperkalemia events. We assessed whether hyperkalemia excursions lead to an elevated risk of adverse clinical outcomes. METHODS: Using data from 21 countries in Phases 4-6 (2009-18) of the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS), we investigated the associations between peak serum K level, measured monthly predialysis, over a 4-month period ('peak K') and clinical outcomes over the subsequent 4 months using Cox regression, adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: The analysis included 62 070 patients contributing a median of 3 (interquartile range 2-6) 4-month periods. The prevalence of hyperkalemia based on peak K was 58% for >5.0, 30% for >5.5 and 12% for >6.0 mEq/L. The all-cause mortality hazard ratio for peak K (reference ≤5.0 mEq/L) was 1.15 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09, 1.21] for 5.1-5.5 mEq/L, 1.19 (1.12, 1.26) for 5.6-6.0 mEq/L and 1.33 (1.23, 1.43) for >6.0 mEq/L. Results were qualitatively consistent when analyzing hospitalizations and a cardiovascular composite outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Among HD patients, we identified a lower K threshold (peak K 5.1-5.5 mEq/L) than previously reported for increased risk of hospitalization and mortality, with the implication that a greater proportion (>50%) of the HD population may be at risk. A reassessment of hyperkalemia severity ranges is needed, as well as an exploration of new strategies for effective management of chronic hyperkalemia.

Methods and rationale of the DISCOVER CKD global observational study.

BACKGROUND: Real-world data for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), specifically pertaining to clinical management, metabolic control, treatment patterns, quality of life (QoL) and dietary patterns, are limited. Understanding these gaps using real-world, routine care data will improve our understanding of the challenges and consequences faced by patients with CKD, and will facilitate the long-term goal of improving their management and prognosis. METHODS: DISCOVER CKD follows an enriched hybrid study design, with both retrospective and prospective patient cohorts, integrating primary and secondary data from patients with CKD from China, Italy, Japan, Sweden, the UK and the USA. Data will be prospectively captured over a 3-year period from >1000 patients with CKD who will be followed up for at least 1 year via electronic case report form entry during routine clinical visits and also via a mobile/tablet-based application, enabling the capture of patient-reported outcomes (PROs). In-depth interviews will be conducted in a subset of ∼100 patients. Separately, secondary data will be retrospectively captured from >2 000 000 patients with CKD, extracted from existing datasets and registries. RESULTS: The DISCOVER CKD program captures and will report on patient demographics, biomarker and laboratory measurements, medical histories, clinical outcomes, healthcare resource utilization, medications, dietary patterns, physical activity and PROs (including QoL and qualitative interviews). CONCLUSIONS: The DISCOVER CKD program will provide contemporary real-world insight to inform clinical practice and improve our understanding of the epidemiology and clinical and economic burden of CKD, as well as determinants of clinical outcomes and PROs from a range of geographical regions in a real-world CKD setting.

Incidence of Uncommon Clinical Events in USA Patients with Dialysis-Dependent and Nondialysis-Dependent Chronic Kidney Disease: Analysis of Electronic Health Records from TriNetX.

INTRODUCTION: Further understanding of adverse clinical events in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is needed. This study aimed to describe characteristics of patients with nondialysis-dependent (NDD) and dialysis-dependent (DD) CKD and to assess incidence rates of uncommon adverse clinical events of interest in these patients. METHODS: This retrospective study used electronic medical record data from USA CKD patients (≥18 years) with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2018, obtained from the USA-based TriNetX database. NDD-CKD and DD-CKD were diagnosed and staged from ≥2 consecutive eGFR readings, recorded ≥90 days apart. Dialysis was identified using procedure codes for renal replacement therapy. Outcomes assessed were select uncommon adverse clinical events, defined by International Classification of Disease, 9th and 10th Revision codes. RESULTS: Incidence rates of adverse clinical events per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval) were generally higher in patients with DD-CKD versus NDD-CKD. Differences were particularly pronounced for hyperkalemia (26.9 [26.2-27.6] vs. 4.5 [4.5-4.6]), acidosis (15.1 [14.7-15.6] vs. 3.4 [3.4-3.4]), and sepsis (14.6 [14.2-15.1] vs. 3.3 [3.3-3.4]). Among DD-CKD patients, incidence rates of adverse events were particularly high during the first 3 months following dialysis initiation. Incidence of adverse clinical events generally increased with decreasing eGFR among patients with NDD-CKD and with hemoglobin <10 g/dL in both NDD- and DD-CKD patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our results help establish baseline rates of uncommon adverse clinical events and provide additional evidence of increased morbidity for patients with DD-CKD versus NDD-CKD.

Health-related quality of life 1-3 years post-myocardial infarction: its impact on prognosis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess associations of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) with patient profile, resource use, cardiovascular (CV) events and mortality in stable patients post-myocardial infarction (MI). METHODS: The global, prospective, observational TIGRIS Study enrolled 9126 patients 1-3 years post-MI. HRQoL was assessed at enrolment and 6-month intervals using the patient-reported EuroQol-5 dimension (EQ-5D) questionnaire, with scores anchored at 0 (worst possible) and 1 (perfect health). Resource use, CV events and mortality were recorded during 2-years' follow-up. Regression models estimated the associations of index score at enrolment with patient characteristics, resource use, CV events and mortality over 2-years' follow-up. RESULTS: Among 8978 patients who completed the EQ-5D questionnaire, 52% reported 'some' or 'severe' problems on one or more health dimensions. Factors associated with a lower index score were: female sex, older age, obesity, smoking, higher heart rate, less formal education, presence of comorbidity (eg, angina, stroke), emergency room visit in the previous 6 months and non-ST-elevation MI as the index event. Compared with an index score of 1 at enrolment, a lower index score was associated with higher risk of all-cause death, with an adjusted rate ratio of 3.09 (95% CI 2.20 to 4.31), and of a CV event, with a rate ratio of 2.31 (95% CI 1.76 to 3.03). Patients with lower index score at enrolment had almost two times as many hospitalisations over 2-years' follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians managing patients post-acute coronary syndrome should recognise that a poorer HRQoL is clearly linked to risk of hospitalisations, major CV events and death. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT01866904) (https://clinicaltrials.gov).

A real-world longitudinal study of anemia management in non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease patients: a multinational analysis of CKDopps.

Previously lacking in the literature, we describe longitudinal patterns of anemia prescriptions for non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (NDD-CKD) patients under nephrologist care. We analyzed data from 2818 Stage 3-5 NDD-CKD patients from Brazil, Germany, and the US, naïve to anemia medications (oral iron, intravenous [IV] iron, or erythropoiesis stimulating agent [ESA]) at enrollment in the CKDopps. We report the cumulative incidence function (CIF) of medication initiation stratified by baseline characteristics. Even in patients with hemoglobin (Hb) < 10 g/dL, the CIF at 12 months for any anemia medication was 40%, and 28% for ESAs. Patients with TSAT < 20% had a CIF of 26% and 6% for oral and IV iron, respectively. Heart failure was associated with earlier initiation of anemia medications. IV iron was prescribed to < 10% of patients with iron deficiency. Only 40% of patients with Hb < 10 g/dL received any anemia medication within a year. Discontinuation of anemia treatment was very common. Anemia treatment is initiated in a limited number of NDD-CKD patients, even in those with guideline-based indications to treat. Hemoglobin trajectory and a history of heart failure appear to guide treatment start. These results support the concept that anemia is sub-optimally managed among NDD-CKD patients in the real-world setting.

Diabetes association with self-reported health, resource utilization, and prognosis post-myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is associated with increased cardiovascular (CV) risk. We compared health-related quality of life (HRQoL), healthcare resource utilization (HRU), and clinical outcomes of stable post-myocardial infarction (MI) patients with and without DM. HYPOTHESIS: In post-MI patients, DM is associated with worse HRQoL, increased HRU, and worse clinical outcomes. METHODS: The prospective, observational long-term risk, clinical management, and healthcare Resource utilization of stable coronary artery disease study obtained data from 8968 patients aged ≥50 years 1 to 3 years post-MI (369 centers; 25 countries). Patients with ≥1 of the following risk factors were included: age ≥65 years, history of a second MI >1 year before enrollment, multivessel coronary artery disease, creatinine clearance ≥15 and <60 mL/min, and DM treated with medication. Self-reported health status was assessed at baseline, 1 and 2 years and converted to EQ-5D scores. The main outcome measures were baseline HRQoL and HRU during follow-up. RESULTS: DM at enrollment was 33% (2959 patients, 869 insulin treated). Mean baseline EQ-5D score (0.86 vs 0.82; P < .0001) was higher; mean number of hospitalizations (0.38 vs 0.50, P < .0001) and mean length of stay (LoS; 9.3 vs 11.5; P = .001) were lower in patients without vs with DM. All-cause death and the composite of CV death, MI, and stroke were significantly higher in DM patients, with adjusted 2-year rate ratios of 1.43 (P < .01) and 1.55 (P < .001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Stable post-MI patients with DM (especially insulin treated) had poorer EQ-5D scores, higher hospitalization rates and LoS, and worse clinical outcomes vs those without DM. Strategies focusing specifically on this high-risk population should be developed to improve outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01866904 (https://clinicaltrials.gov).

Risk of Anemia in Patients with Newly Identified Chronic Kidney Disease - A Population-Based Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: Anemia is prevalent in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but the longitudinal risk of anemia in patients with newly identified CKD is unknown. We therefore examined the risks of experiencing anemia in persons with newly identified CKD. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This cohort study included adult patients with newly identified CKD stages 3-5 defined by an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) level <60 mL/min/1.73m2 (at least two measurements ≥90 days apart) ascertained from a population-based registry with complete laboratory test results in Northern Denmark (population ~2.2 million) during 2009-2016. We calculated 1) cumulative incidence (risk) of anemia [hemoglobin <12/<13 g/dl in women/men] by CKD stage, and 2) adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of anemia using Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: We identified 55,940 distinct individuals with newly identified CKD stages 3-5 and no prevalent anemia [n=41,958 patients in stage 3a, n=17,875 in stage 3b, n=5182 in stage 4, and n=931 in stage 5]. After one year, 42.3% (95%-confidence interval [CI]: 41.9-42.7) of patients with CKD stages 3-5 had newly measured anemia, increasing to 67.7% (95%-CI: 67.2-68.2) after five years. The absolute and relative anemia risk increased markedly with higher CKD stages. The adjusted HR of any anemia was 5.42 (95%-CI: 5.09-5.77) in patients with CKD stage 5 compared to patients with CKD stage 3a. CONCLUSION: Patients with newly identified CKD stages 3-5 have a substantial risk of anemia, increasing with higher CKD stages. This study underlines that clinical awareness of anemia risk is important in patients with newly identified or progressed CKD.

Characteristics, Symptom Severity, and Experiences of Patients Reporting Chronic Kidney Disease in the PatientsLikeMe Online Health Community: Retrospective and Qualitative Study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major global health burden, and is associated with increased adverse outcomes, poor quality of life, and substantial health care costs. While there is an increasing need to build patient-centered pathways for improving CKD management in clinical care, data in this field are scarce. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to understand patient-reported experiences, symptoms, outcomes, and treatment journeys among patients with CKD through a retrospective and qualitative approach based on data available through PatientsLikeMe (PLM), an online community where patients can connect and share experiences. METHODS: Adult members (aged ≥18 years) with self-reported CKD within 30 days of enrollment, who were not on dialysis, and registered between 2011 and 2018 in the PLM community were eligible for the retrospective study. Patient demographics and disease characteristics/symptoms were collected from this retrospective data set. Qualitative data were collected prospectively through semistructured phone interviews in a subset of patients, and questions were oriented to better understand patients' experiences with CKD and its management. RESULTS: The retrospective data set included 1848 eligible patients with CKD, and median age was 56 years. The majority of patients were female (1217/1841, 66.11%) and most were US residents (1450/1661, 87.30%). Of the patients who reported comorbidities (n=1374), the most common were type 2 diabetes (783/1374, 56.99%), hypertension (664/1374, 48.33%), hypercholesterolemia (439/1374, 31.95%), and diabetic neuropathy (376/1374, 27.37%). The most commonly reported severe or moderate symptoms in patients reporting these symptoms were fatigue (347/484, 71.7%) and pain (278/476, 58.4%). In the qualitative study, 18 eligible patients (13 females) with a median age of 60 years and who were mainly US residents were interviewed. Three key concepts were identified by patients to be important to optimal care and management: listening to patient needs, coordinating health care across providers, and managing clinical care. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a unique source of real-world information on the patient experience of CKD and its management by utilizing the PLM network. The results reveal the challenges these patients face living with an array of symptoms, and report key concepts identified by patients that can be used to further improve clinical care and management and inform future CKD studies.

Comparison of Characteristics and Outcomes of Patients With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction With Versus Without Hyperuricemia or Gout.

Hyperuricemia and gout are common in patients with heart failure (HF) and are associated with poor outcomes. Data describing hyperuricemia and gout in patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) are limited. We used data from the Duke University Health System to describe characteristics of patients with HFpEF and hyperuricemia (serum uric acid >6 mg/dl) or gout (gout diagnosis or gout medication within the previous year) and to explore associations with 5-year outcomes (death and hospitalization). We identified 7,004 patients in the Duke University Health System with a known diagnosis of HFpEF who underwent transthoracic echocardiography between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2017. A total of 1,136 (16.2%) patients with HFpEF also had hyperuricemia or gout. Patients with HFpEF and hyperuricemia or gout had a greater co-morbidity burden, more echocardiographic findings of cardiac remodeling, and higher unadjusted rates of all-cause death, all-cause hospitalization, and HF hospitalization compared with those with HFpEF without hyperuricemia or gout. After multivariable adjustment, patients with HFpEF and hyperuricemia or gout had a significantly higher rates of first all-cause hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio 1.10 [95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.19]; p = 0.020) and recurrent all-cause hospitalization (associated rate ratio 1.13 [95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.25]; p = 0.026). After adjustment, no significant differences in death or HF hospitalization were observed. In conclusion, patients with HFpEF and hyperuricemia or gout were found to have a higher burden of co-morbidities and a higher rate of all-cause hospitalization, even after multivariable adjustment, compared to patients with HFpEF without hyperuricemia or gout.

Two-year outcomes among stable high-risk patients following acute MI. Insights from a global registry in 25 countries.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is lacking on long-term outcomes in unselected patients surviving the first year following myocardial infarction (MI). METHODS AND RESULTS: The TIGRIS (long-Term rIsk, clinical manaGement and healthcare Resource utilization of stable coronary artery dISease in post-myocardial infarction patients) prospective registry enrolled 9176 eligible patients aged ≥50 years, 1-3 years post-MI, from 25 countries. All had ≥1 risk factor: age ≥ 65 years, diabetes mellitus, second prior MI, multivessel coronary artery disease, chronic kidney disease (CKD). Primary outcome was a composite of MI, unstable angina with urgent revascularization, stroke, or all-cause death at 2-year follow-up. Bleeding requiring hospitalization was also recorded. 9027 patients (98.4%) provided follow-up data: the primary outcome occurred in 621 (7.0%), all-cause mortality in 295 (3.3%), and bleeding in 109 (1.2%) patients. Events accrued linearly over time. In multivariable analyses, qualifying risk factors were associated with increased risk of primary outcome (incidence rate ratio [RR] per 100 patient-years [95% confidence interval]): CKD 2.06 (1.66, 2.55), second prior MI 1.71 (1.38, 2.10), diabetes mellitus 1.63 (1.39, 1.92), age ≥ 65 years 1.53 (1.28, 1.83), and multivessel disease 1.24 (1.05, 1.48). Risk of bleeding events was greater in older patients (vs <65 years) 65-74 years 2.68 (1.53, 4.70), ≥75 years 4.62 (2.57, 8.28), and those with CKD 1.99 (1.18, 3.35). CONCLUSION: In stable patients recruited 1-3 years post-MI, recurrent cardiovascular and bleeding events accrued linearly over 2 years. Factors independently predictive of ischemic and bleeding events were identified, providing a context for deciding on treatment options.

Predicting risk of cardiovascular events 1 to 3 years post-myocardial infarction using a global registry.

BACKGROUND: Risk prediction tools are lacking for patients with stable disease some years after myocardial infarction (MI). HYPOTHESIS: A practical long-term cardiovascular risk index can be developed. METHODS: The long-Term rIsk, Clinical manaGement and healthcare Resource utilization of stable coronary artery dISease in post-myocardial infarction patients prospective global registry enrolled patients 1 to 3 years post-MI (369 centers; 25 countries), all with ≥1 risk factor (age ≥65 years, diabetes mellitus requiring medication, second prior MI, multivessel coronary artery disease, or chronic non-end-stage kidney disease [CKD]). Self-reported health was assessed with EuroQoL-5 dimensions. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to determine key predictors of the primary composite outcome (MI, unstable angina with urgent revascularization [UA], stroke, or all-cause death) over 2 years. RESULTS: The primary outcome occurred in 621 (6.9%) of 9027 eligible patients: death 295 (3.3%), MI 195 (2.2%), UA 103 (1.1%), and stroke 58 (0.6%). All events accrued linearly. In a multivariable model, 11 significant predictors of primary outcome (age ≥65 years, diabetes, second prior MI, CKD, history of major bleed, peripheral arterial disease, heart failure, cardiovascular hospitalization (prior 6 months), medical management (index MI), on diuretic, and poor self-reported health) were identified and combined into a user-friendly risk index. Compared with lowest-risk patients, those in the top 16% had a rate ratio of 6.9 for the primary composite, and 18.7 for all-cause death (overall c-statistic; 0.686, and 0.768, respectively). External validation was performed using the Australian Cooperative National Registry of Acute Coronary Care, Guideline Adherence and Clinical Events registry (c-statistic; 0.748, and 0.849, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In patients >1-year post-MI, recurrent cardiovascular events and deaths accrue linearly. A simple risk index can stratify patients, potentially helping to guide management.