Using instruments for selection to adjust for selection bias in Mendelian randomization.

Selection bias is a common concern in epidemiologic studies. In the literature, selection bias is often viewed as a missing data problem. Popular approaches to adjust for bias due to missing data, such as inverse probability weighting, rely on the assumption that data are missing at random and can yield biased results if this assumption is violated. In observational studies with outcome data missing not at random, Heckman's sample selection model can be used to adjust for bias due to missing data. In this paper, we review Heckman's method and a similar approach proposed by Tchetgen Tchetgen and Wirth (2017). We then discuss how to apply these methods to Mendelian randomization analyses using individual-level data, with missing data for either the exposure or outcome or both. We explore whether genetic variants associated with participation can be used as instruments for selection. We then describe how to obtain missingness-adjusted Wald ratio, two-stage least squares and inverse variance weighted estimates. The two methods are evaluated and compared in simulations, with results suggesting that they can both mitigate selection bias but may yield parameter estimates with large standard errors in some settings. In an illustrative real-data application, we investigate the effects of body mass index on smoking using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children.

Maternal smoking during pregnancy and offspring risk of intellectual disability: a UK-based cohort study.

Background: Observational studies have described associations of maternal smoking during pregnancy with intellectual disability (ID) in the exposed offspring. Whether these results reflect a causal effect or unmeasured confounding is still unclear. Methods: Using a UK-based prospectively collected birth cohort (the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children) of 13,479 children born between 1991 and 1992, we assessed the relationship between maternal smoking at 18 weeks' gestation and offspring risk of ID, ascertained through multiple sources of linked information including primary care diagnoses and education records. Using confounder-adjusted logistic regression, we performed observational analyses and a negative control analysis that compared maternal with partner smoking in pregnancy under the assumption that if a causal effect were to exist, maternal effect estimates would be of greater magnitude than estimates for partner smoking if the two exposures suffer from comparable biases. Results: In observational analysis, we found an adjusted odds ratio for ID of 0.75 (95% CI = 0.49-1.13) for any maternal smoking and 0.97 (95% CI = 0.71-1.33) per 10-cigarette increase in number of cigarettes smoked per day. In negative control analysis, comparable effect estimates were found for any partner smoking (OR = 0.94; 95% CI = 0.63-1.40) and number of cigarettes smoked per day (OR = 0.94; 95% CI = 0.74-1.20). Conclusions: The results are not consistent with a causal effect of maternal smoking during pregnancy on offspring ID.

Exposure to Violence and Mental Health Outcomes Among Pre-schoolers in a South African Birth Cohort.

Little is known about the relationship between violence exposure and mental health in preschoolers living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Multiple regression analyses investigated associations between violence exposure and mental health in the Drakenstein Child Health Study (N = 978), a South African birth cohort. Lifetime violence exposure was assessed at age 4.5 years using the parent-report Child Exposure to Community Violence Checklist (CECV). Mental health was assessed at age 5 years using the Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL 1.5-5). Eighty-three percent of the children were exposed to some form of violence. Internalising and externalising behaviours were positively associated with overall violence exposure (ß per one unit change in the overall score = 0.55 [0.16, 0.94] and ß = 0.53 [0.23, 0.84], respectively), domestic victimisation (ß per one unit change in the subscore = 1.28 [0.28, 2.27]; ß = 1.14 [0.37, 1.90]) and witnessing community violence (ß = 0.77 [0.15, 1.39]; ß = 0.68 [0.19, 1.18]). There was a positive association between polyvictimisation and externalising (ß = 1.02 [0.30, 1.73]) but not internalising (ß = 0.87 [-0.06, 1.80]) behaviour problems. Evidence for an association of witnessing domestic violence with internalising (ß = 0.63 [-0.97, 2.24]) or externalising (ß = 1.23 [-0.04, 2.50]) behaviours was less robust. There was no association between community victimisation and internalising or externalising behaviours (ß = 0.72 [-1.52, 2.97; ß = 0.68 [ -1.06, 2.41]). Observations highlight the risk for mental health problems among preschoolers living in high-violence contexts and emphasize the need for early interventions.

Sleep duration, sleep problems and developmental trajectories of urinary incontinence: a prospective cohort study.

To examine if preschool sleep duration and sleep problems are associated with urinary incontinence (UI) at primary school-age. We used multinomial logistic regression to examine the association of child sleep duration/problems (3½ years) with UI trajectories (4-9 years) in 8751 (4507 boys, 4244 girls) from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. We adjusted for sex, socioeconomic indicators, mothers' emotional/practical/financial support, developmental delay, stressful life events, temperament, and emotional/behaviour problems. Preschool children who slept more than 8½ hours per night had a decreased probability of UI at school-age. There was a 33% reduction in odds of daytime wetting per additional hour of sleep (odds ratio [OR] = 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.52-0.86). Sleep problems were associated with increased odds of UI e.g., getting up after being put to bed was associated with daytime wetting (OR = 2.20, 95% CI 1.43-3.39); breathing problems whilst sleeping were associated with delayed bladder control (OR = 1.68, 95% CI 1.12-2.52), and night-time waking was associated with persistent (day and night) wetting (OR = 1.53, 95% CI 1.16-2.00). Waking during the night and waking up early in the morning were associated with reduced odds of bedwetting at school-age (OR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.61-0.96 and OR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.64-0.99 respectively). Preschool children who sleep for longer have a lower likelihood of UI at school-age, whilst those with sleep problems are more likely to experience daytime wetting and combined (day and night) wetting, but not bedwetting alone. Short sleep duration and sleep problems in early childhood could be indicators of future problems attaining and maintaining bladder control.

Prenatal Urban Environment and Blood Pressure Trajectories From Childhood to Early Adulthood.

Background: Prenatal urban environmental exposures have been associated with blood pressure in children. The dynamic of these associations across childhood and later ages is unknown. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to assess associations of prenatal urban environmental exposures with blood pressure trajectories from childhood to early adulthood. Methods: Repeated measures of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were collected in up to 7,454 participants from a UK birth cohort. Prenatal urban exposures (n = 43) covered measures of noise, air pollution, built environment, natural spaces, traffic, meteorology, and food environment. An exposome-wide association study approach was used. Linear spline mixed-effects models were used to model associations of each exposure with trajectories of blood pressure. Replication was sought in 4 independent European cohorts (up to 9,261). Results: In discovery analyses, higher humidity was associated with a faster increase (mean yearly change in SBP for an interquartile range increase in humidity: 0.29 mm Hg/y, 95% CI: 0.20-0.39) and higher temperature with a slower increase (mean yearly change in SBP per interquartile range increase in temperature: -0.17 mm Hg/y, 95% CI: -0.28 to -0.07) in SBP in childhood. Higher levels of humidity and air pollution were associated with faster increase in DBP in childhood and slower increase in adolescence. There was little evidence of an association of other exposures with change in SBP or DBP. Results for humidity and temperature, but not for air pollution, were replicated in other cohorts. Conclusions: Replicated findings suggest that higher prenatal humidity and temperature could modulate blood pressure changes across childhood.

Investigating changes in student mental health and help-seeking behaviour after the introduction of new well-being support services at a UK university.

BACKGROUND: Growing numbers of students now seek mental health support from their higher education providers. In response, a number of universities have invested in non-clinical well-being services, but there have been few evaluations of these. This research addresses a critical gap in the existing literature. AIMS: This study examined the impact of introducing non-clinical well-being advisers on student mental health and help-seeking behaviour at a large UK university. METHOD: Survey data collected pre-post service introduction in 2018 (n = 5562) and 2019 (n = 2637) measured prevalence of depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9), anxiety (Generalised Anxiety Disorder-7), and low mental well-being (Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale), alongside student support-seeking behaviour. Logistic regression models investigated changes in outcome measures. Administrative data (2014-2020) were used to investigate corresponding trends in antidepressant prescribing at the onsite health service, student counselling referrals and course withdrawal rates. RESULTS: Adjusted models suggested reductions in students' levels of anxiety (odds ratio 0.86, 95% CI 0.77-0.96) and low well-being (odds ratio 0.84, 95% CI 0.75-0.94) in 2019, but not depression symptoms (odds ratio 1.05, 95% CI 0.93-1.17). Statistical evidence showed reduced student counselling referrals, with antidepressant prescribing and course withdrawal rates levelling off. Student perception of the availability and accessibility of university support improved. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a non-clinical well-being service model may improve student perception of support, influence overall levels of anxiety and low well-being, and reduce clinical need. The current study was only able to examine changes over the short term, and a longer follow-up is needed.

Emotional problems across development: examining measurement invariance across childhood, adolescence and early adulthood.

Emotional problems (anxiety, depression) are prevalent in children, adolescents and young adults with varying ages at onset. Studying developmental changes in emotional problems requires repeated assessments using the same or equivalent measures. The parent-rated Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire is commonly used to assess emotional problems in childhood and adolescence, but there is limited research about whether it captures a similar construct across these developmental periods. Our study addressed this by investigating measurement invariance in the scales' emotional problems subscale (SDQ-EP) across childhood, adolescence and early adulthood. Data from two UK population cohorts were utilised: the Millennium Cohort Study (ages 3-17 years) and the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (4-25 years). In both samples we observed weak (metric) measurement invariance by age, suggesting that the parent-rated SDQ-EP items contribute to the underlying construct of emotional problems similarly across age. This supports the validity of using the subscale to rank participants on their levels of emotional problems in childhood, adolescence and early adulthood. However strong (scalar) measurement invariance was not observed, suggesting that the same score may correspond to different levels of emotional problems across developmental periods. Comparisons of mean parent-rated SDQ-EP scores across age may therefore not be valid.

Air and Noise Pollution Exposure in Early Life and Mental Health From Adolescence to Young Adulthood.

Importance: Growing evidence associates air pollution exposure with various psychiatric disorders. However, the importance of early-life (eg, prenatal) air pollution exposure to mental health during youth is poorly understood, and few longitudinal studies have investigated the association of noise pollution with youth mental health. Objectives: To examine the longitudinal associations of air and noise pollution exposure in pregnancy, childhood, and adolescence with psychotic experiences, depression, and anxiety in youths from ages 13 to 24 years. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, an ongoing longitudinal birth cohort founded in 1991 through 1993 in Southwest England, United Kingdom. The cohort includes over 14 000 infants with due dates between April 1, 1991, and December 31, 1992, who were subsequently followed up into adulthood. Data were analyzed October 29, 2021, to March 11, 2024. Exposures: A novel linkage (completed in 2020) was performed to link high-resolution (100 m2) estimates of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particulate matter under 2.5 µm (PM2.5), and noise pollution to home addresses from pregnancy to 12 years of age. Main outcomes and measures: Psychotic experiences, depression, and anxiety were measured at ages 13, 18, and 24 years. Logistic regression models controlled for key individual-, family-, and area-level confounders. Results: This cohort study included 9065 participants who had any mental health data, of whom (with sample size varying by parameter) 51.4% (4657 of 9051) were female, 19.5% (1544 of 7910) reported psychotic experiences, 11.4% (947 of 8344) reported depression, and 9.7% (811 of 8398) reported anxiety. Mean (SD) age at follow-up was 24.5 (0.8) years. After covariate adjustment, IQR increases (0.72 µg/m3) in PM2.5 levels during pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.11 [95% CI, 1.04-1.19]; P = .002) and during childhood (AOR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.00-1.10]; P = .04) were associated with elevated odds for psychotic experiences. Pregnancy PM2.5 exposure was also associated with depression (AOR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.02-1.18]; P = .01). Higher noise pollution exposure in childhood (AOR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.03-1.38]; P = .02) and adolescence (AOR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.02-1.45]; P = .03) was associated with elevated odds for anxiety. Conclusions and Relevance: In this longitudinal cohort study, early-life air and noise pollution exposure were prospectively associated with 3 common mental health problems from adolescence to young adulthood. There was a degree of specificity in terms of pollutant-timing-outcome associations. Interventions to reduce air and noise pollution exposure (eg, clean air zones) could potentially improve population mental health. Replication using quasi-experimental designs is now needed to shed further light on the underlying causes of these associations.

Incident psychotic experiences following self-reported use of high-potency cannabis: Results from a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: High-potency cannabis has been associated with increased risk of psychosis, but a lack of prospective data hinders understanding of causality in this relationship. This study aimed to combine prospective report of cannabis use with retrospective report of potency to infer the potency of cannabis used in adolescence and explore whether use of cannabis, and the use of high-potency cannabis, in adolescence is associated with incident psychotic experiences. DESIGN: Population-based birth cohort study. SETTING: United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: n = 5570 participants who reported on any cannabis use (yes/no) age 16 and 18 years, and n = 1560 participants from this group who also retrospectively reported on cannabis potency. MEASUREMENTS: In questionnaires at ages 16 and 18, individuals self-reported lifetime cannabis use, and at age 24, participants reported the type of cannabis they most commonly used in the whole time since first using cannabis. Psychotic experiences were assessed at age 24 years using the semi-structured Psychosis-Like Symptom Interview, with incident defined as new-onset occurring between ages 19 and 24 years. FINDINGS: Use of high-potency cannabis at age 16 or 18 was associated with twice the likelihood of experiencing incident psychotic experiences from age 19-24 (Odds Ratio 2.15, 95% Confidence Intervals 1.13-4.06). There was less evidence for an effect of any cannabis use on incident psychotic experiences (Odds Ratio 1.45, 95% Confidence Intervals 0.94-2.12). CONCLUSIONS: Use of high-potency cannabis appears to be associated with increased likelihood of psychotic experiences.

Counterfactual Mediation Analysis with a Latent Class Exposure.

Latent classes are a useful tool in developmental research, however there are challenges associated with embedding them within a counterfactual mediation model. We develop and test a new method "updated pseudo class draws (uPCD)" to examine the association between a latent class exposure and distal outcome that could easily be extended to allow the use of any counterfactual mediation method. UPCD extends an existing group of methods (based on pseudo class draws) that assume that the true values of the latent class variable are missing, and need to be multiply imputed using class membership probabilities. We simulate data based on the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, examine performance for existing techniques to relate a latent class exposure to a distal outcome ("one-step," "bias-adjusted three-step," "modal class assignment," "non-inclusive pseudo class draws," and "inclusive pseudo class draws") and compare bias in parameter estimates and their precision to uPCD when estimating counterfactual mediation effects. We found that uPCD shows minimal bias when estimating counterfactual mediation effects across all levels of entropy. UPCD performs similarly to recommended methods (one-step and bias-adjusted three-step), but provides greater flexibility and scope for incorporating the latent grouping within any commonly-used counterfactual mediation approach.

Association of early-life exposure to air and noise pollution with youth mental health: findings from the ALSPAC cohort.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence suggests that air pollution exposure contributes to the development of mental health problems, including psychosis and depression. However, little is known about the importance of early-life exposure, nor the potential role of noise pollution, a correlate of air pollution. We examined the association of exposure to air and noise pollution from pregnancy to age 12 years with three mental health problems assessed at ages 12, 18, and 24 years. METHODS: Data were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), which tracks the development of about 14 000 babies who had expected delivery dates between April 1, 1991, and Dec 31, 1992, in Avon, UK. This was linked with novel data on nitrogen dioxide, PM2·5, and noise pollution in pregnancy, childhood (ages 1-9 years), and adolescence (ages 10-12 years). Psychotic experiences, depression, and anxiety were measured at ages 12, 18, and 24 years. Logistic regression models were controlled for individual-level, family-level, and area-level confounders, and e-values were calculated to estimate residual confounding. FINDINGS: Participants exposed to higher PM2.5, particularly during pregnancy, had greater odds for psychotic experiences (adjusted odds ratio 1·17 [95% CI 1·05-1·30]) and depression (1·11 [1·01-1·22]). There was little evidence associating nitrogen dioxide or noise pollution with psychotic experiences or depression. Conversely, higher nitrogen dioxide (but not PM2·5) exposure in pregnancy (1·16 [1·01-1·33]), and higher noise pollution in childhood (1·20 [1·06-1·37]) and adolescence (1·17 [1·02-1·35]), were associated with greater odds for anxiety. INTERPRETATION: Our study builds on evidence linking air pollution to psychosis and depression and provides rare longitudinal evidence linking noise pollution to anxiety. Our findings indicate that air pollution exposure earlier in development (eg, during pregnancy) might be particularly important, and suggest a degree of specificity in terms of pollutant-outcome associations. If causal, our findings suggest that interventions to reduce air pollution would improve global mental health. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council-Wellcome, and University of Bristol.

Childhood Adversity and Incident Psychotic Experiences in Early Adulthood: Cognitive and Psychopathological Mediators.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Childhood adversity is often described as a potential cause of incident psychotic experiences, but the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. We aimed to examine the mediating role of cognitive and psychopathological factors in the relation between childhood adversity and incident psychotic experiences in early adulthood. STUDY DESIGN: We analyzed data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a large population-based cohort study. Childhood adversity was measured prospectively from birth to age 11 years, mediators (anxiety, depression, external locus of control [LoC], negative symptoms) were assessed at approximately 16 years of age, and incident psychotic experiences were assessed at ages 18 and 24 years. Mediation was examined via the counterfactual g-computation formula. STUDY RESULTS: In total, 7% of participants had incident suspected or definite psychotic experiences in early adulthood. Childhood adversity was related to more incident psychotic experiences (ORadjusted = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.21; 1.49), and this association was partially mediated via all mediators examined (proportion mediated: 19.9%). In separate analyses for each mediator, anxiety, depression, external LoC, and negative symptoms were all found to mediate the link between adversity and incident psychotic experiences. Accounting for potential confounders did not modify our results. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that cognitive biases as well as mood symptomatology may be on the causal pathway between early-life adversity and the development of psychotic experiences. Future studies should determine which mediating factors are most easily modifiable and most likely to reduce the risk of developing psychotic experiences.

Childhood adversities characterize the heterogeneity in the brain pattern of individuals during neurodevelopment.

BACKGROUND: Several factors shape the neurodevelopmental trajectory. A key area of focus in neurodevelopmental research is to estimate the factors that have maximal influence on the brain and can tip the balance from typical to atypical development. METHODS: Utilizing a dissimilarity maximization algorithm on the dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) of the resting state functional MRI data, we classified subjects from the cVEDA neurodevelopmental cohort (n = 987, aged 6-23 years) into homogeneously patterned DMD (representing typical development in 809 subjects) and heterogeneously patterned DMD (indicative of atypical development in 178 subjects). RESULTS: Significant DMD differences were primarily identified in the default mode network (DMN) regions across these groups (p < 0.05, Bonferroni corrected). While the groups were comparable in cognitive performance, the atypical group had more frequent exposure to adversities and faced higher abuses (p < 0.05, Bonferroni corrected). Upon evaluating brain-behavior correlations, we found that correlation patterns between adversity and DMN dynamic modes exhibited age-dependent variations for atypical subjects, hinting at differential utilization of the DMN due to chronic adversities. CONCLUSION: Adversities (particularly abuse) maximally influence the DMN during neurodevelopment and lead to the failure in the development of a coherent DMN system. While DMN's integrity is preserved in typical development, the age-dependent variability in atypically developing individuals is contrasting. The flexibility of DMN might be a compensatory mechanism to protect an individual in an abusive environment. However, such adaptability might deprive the neural system of the faculties of normal functioning and may incur long-term effects on the psyche.

Maternal religiosity and adolescent mental health: A UK prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Previous research has examined associations between parental religiosity and offspring mental health, but findings are inconsistent, and few studies have focused on late adolescence when mental health problems are more common. This study examines the prospective relationship between maternal religiosity and offspring mental health in late adolescence. METHODS: We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children to examine the prospective association between latent classes of maternal religiosity (Highly Religious, Moderately Religious, Agnostic, Atheist) and self-reported mental health problems including common mental disorders, ICD 10 depression, depressive symptoms, generalised anxiety symptoms, self-harm acts, self-harm thoughts, and disordered eating outcomes at age 17-18 years (n = 7714). We used multivariable logistic regression analysis adjusted for maternal mental health, maternal adverse childhood experiences, and socioeconomic variables. RESULTS: Compared with adolescent offspring of parents in the Agnostic class, offspring of the Atheist class had increased odds of depressive symptoms ((1.31[1.03,1.67]) and offspring of the Highly Religious class had increased odds of self-harm thoughts (1.43[1.04,1.97]). There was also weak evidence (95 % confidence intervals crossed the null) of increased odds of depression in the offspring of Moderately religious and Highly religious classes (1.26 [0.97,1.65], and 1.30 [0.99,1.70], respectively)) and self-harm acts in the offspring of the Highly religious class (1.31[0.98,1.74]). There was no evidence of associations with the disordered eating outcomes or generalised anxiety disorder symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence that adolescents whose mothers are Atheist, Moderately Religious, and Highly Religious are more likely to have depressive symptoms than those whose mothers are Agnostic. There was also evidence for an increased likelihood of self-harm (thoughts and acts) amongst adolescents of Highly Religious parents. Further research is needed to examine possible mechanisms that could explain these observed associations as well as a repetition of our analyses in a non-UK sample.

Exploring the associations between adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and adolescent cancer risk behaviours in the ALSPAC cohort.

BACKGROUND: Some modifiable risk factors for cancer originate during adolescence. While there is evidence indicating relationships between adverse childhood experiences and health risk behaviours generally, little is known about how childhood adversity influences the engagement of adolescents in cancer risk behaviours. This study aimed to determine the relationship between adverse childhood experiences and adolescent cancer risk behaviours. METHODS: Data were collected prospectively from birth to age 18 years on children born to mothers enrolled into the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) cohort study. Multivariable linear regression models assessed relationships of a composite exposure measure comprised of adverse childhood experiences (total number of childhood adversities experienced from early infancy until age 9 years) with multiple cancer risk behaviours. The latter was expressed as a single continuous score for tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, obesity, unsafe sex, and physical inactivity, at ages 11, 14, 16 and 18 years. Analysis was carried out on the complete case and imputation samples of 1,368 and 7,358 participants respectively. RESULTS: All adolescent cancer risk behaviours increased in prevalence as the adolescents grew older, except for obesity. Each additional adverse childhood experience was associated with a 0.25 unit increase in adolescent cancer risk behaviour (95% CI 0.16-0.34; p < 0.001). Individually, parental substance misuse (ß 0.64, 95% CI 0.25-1.03, p < 0.001) and parental separation (ß 0.56, 95% CI 0.27-0.86, p < 0.001) demonstrated the strongest evidence of association with engagement in adolescent cancer risk behaviour. CONCLUSION: Childhood adversity was associated with a greater degree of engagement in adolescent cancer risk behaviours. This finding demonstrates the need for targeted primary and secondary prevention interventions that reduce engagement across multiple cancer risk behaviours for children and adolescents who have experienced adversity in childhood, such as parental substance misuse and separation, and reduce exposure to adversity.

Mental health problems, stressful life events and new-onset urinary incontinence in primary school-age children: a prospective cohort study.

Emotional/behaviour problems and exposure to stressful life events are thought to contribute to new onset of urinary incontinence (UI) amongst children who have attained bladder control. However, very few prospective studies have examined these associations. We assessed whether mental health problems and stressful life events were associated with subsequent new onset in UI using multivariable logistic regression in a prospective UK cohort (n = 6408). Mothers provided information on their child's symptoms of common mental disorders (Development and Wellbeing Assessment, 7 years), stressful life events (7-8 years) and wetting (day and night, 9 years). There was strong evidence that separation anxiety symptoms were associated with new-onset UI in the fully adjusted model (OR (95% CI) = 2.08 (1.39, 3.13), p < 0.001). Social anxiety, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder and oppositional defiant disorder symptoms were associated with new-onset UI, but these associations attenuated following adjustment for child developmental level and earlier emotional/behaviour problems. There was weak evidence for a sex interaction with stressful life events (p = 0.065), such that females experiencing more stressful life events were at higher risk of new-onset UI (fully adjusted model OR (95% CI) = 1.66 (1.05, 2.61), p = 0.029), but there was no association in males (fully adjusted model OR (95% CI) = 0.87 (0.52, 1.47), p = 0.608). These results suggest that separation anxiety and stressful life events in girls may lead to an increase in UI.

Following the children of depressed parents from childhood to adult life: A focus on mood and anxiety disorders.

Background: Parental depression increases risk for anxiety and depression in offspring. The transition from adolescence to adulthood is a common risk period for onset of such disorders. However, relatively few studies have considered development of these disorders from childhood to adulthood including multiple assessments during this transition period. Method: Offspring of depressed parents aged 9-17 years at baseline were followed prospectively for 13 years (n = 337). Average length of follow-up was 16 months between the first and second waves, 13 months between the second and third, and 8 years between the third and fourth. Current (3-month) psychopathology was assessed at each wave using diagnostic interviews. We derived estimates of 3-month prevalence, age at first diagnosis, course and comorbidity of disorders. Social functioning in adult life was assessed at the final wave and we assessed how prior and current disorder impacted adult functioning. Results: A quarter of young people met criteria for a mood disorder and a third for anxiety disorder at least once. Mood and anxiety disorder prevalence increased from 4.5% and 15.8% respectively in childhood (9-11 years) to 22.3% and 20.9% respectively by age 23-28. Increased prevalence across the transition from adolescence to adulthood was particularly marked in males, while prevalence increased earlier in adolescence in females. Age at first diagnosis varied widely (mood disorder mean = 16.5 years (range 9-26); anxiety disorder mean = 14.5 years (range 9-28)). Over half (52%) reported functional impairment in early adulthood, 31% harmful alcohol use, and 10% self-harm or a suicide attempt. Both previous and current mood or anxiety disorder were associated with functional impairment in early adulthood. Conclusions: There is a prolonged risk period for mood and anxiety disorders in this group, with prevalence peaking in early adulthood. This highlights the need for prolonged vigilance and effective targeted interventions in the offspring of depressed parents.

Methodological approaches, challenges, and opportunities in the application of Mendelian randomisation to lifecourse epidemiology: A systematic literature review.

Diseases diagnosed in adulthood may have antecedents throughout (including prenatal) life. Gaining a better understanding of how exposures at different stages in the lifecourse influence health outcomes is key to elucidating the potential benefits of disease prevention strategies. Mendelian randomisation (MR) is increasingly used to estimate causal effects of exposures across the lifecourse on later life outcomes. This systematic literature review explores MR methods used to perform lifecourse investigations and reviews previous work that has utilised MR to elucidate the effects of factors acting at different stages of the lifecourse. We conducted searches in PubMed, Embase, Medline and MedRXiv databases. Thirteen methodological studies were identified. Four studies focused on the impact of time-varying exposures in the interpretation of "standard" MR techniques, five presented methods for repeat measures of the same exposure, and four described methodological approaches to handling multigenerational exposures. A further 127 studies presented the results of an applied research question. Over half of these estimated effects in a single generation and were largely confined to the exploration of questions regarding body composition. The remaining mostly estimated maternal effects. There is a growing body of research focused on the development and application of MR methods to address lifecourse research questions. The underlying assumptions require careful consideration and the interpretation of results rely on select conditions. Whilst we do not advocate for a particular strategy, we encourage practitioners to make informed decisions on how to approach a research question in this field with a solid understanding of the limitations present and how these may be affected by the research question, modelling approach, instrument selection, and data availability.

Parental mental health trajectories over the COVID-19 pandemic and links with childhood adversity and pandemic stress.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has created significant disruptions, with parents of school-age children being identified as a vulnerable population. Limited research has longitudinally tracked the mental health trajectories of parents over the active pandemic period. In addition, parents' history of adverse (ACEs) and benevolent (BCEs) childhood experiences may compound or attenuate the effect of COVID-19 stressors on parental psychopathology. OBJECTIVE: To identify distinct longitudinal trajectories of parental mental health over the COVID-19 pandemic and how these trajectories are associated with parental ACEs, BCEs, and COVID-19 stress. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: 547 parents of 5-18-year-old children from the U.K., U.S., Canada, and Australia. METHODS: Growth mixture modelling was used to identify trajectories of parental mental health (distress, anxiety, post-traumatic stress, and substance use) from May 2020 to October 2021. COVID-19 stress, ACEs, and BCEs were assessed as predictors of mental health trajectories via multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Two-class trajectories of "Low Stable" and "Moderate Stable" symptoms were identified for psychological distress and anxiety. Three-class trajectories of "Low Stable", "High Stable", and "High Decreasing" symptoms were observed for post-traumatic stress. Reliable trajectories for substance use could not be identified. Multinomial logistic regression showed that COVID-19 stress and ACEs independently predicted membership in trajectories of greater mental health impairment, while BCEs independently predicted membership in trajectories of lower psychological distress. CONCLUSIONS: Parents experienced mostly stable mental health symptomatology, with trajectories varying by overall symptom severity. COVID-19 stress, ACEs, and BCEs each appear to play a role in parents' mental health during this unique historical period.

Multiple imputation of missing data under missing at random: including a collider as an auxiliary variable in the imputation model can induce bias.

Epidemiological studies often have missing data, which are commonly handled by multiple imputation (MI). In MI, in addition to those required for the substantive analysis, imputation models often include other variables ("auxiliary variables"). Auxiliary variables that predict the partially observed variables can reduce the standard error (SE) of the MI estimator and, if they also predict the probability that data are missing, reduce bias due to data being missing not at random. However, guidance for choosing auxiliary variables is lacking. We examine the consequences of a poorly chosen auxiliary variable: if it shares a common cause with the partially observed variable and the probability that it is missing (i.e., it is a "collider"), its inclusion can induce bias in the MI estimator and may increase the SE. We quantify, both algebraically and by simulation, the magnitude of bias and SE when either the exposure or outcome is incomplete. When the substantive analysis outcome is partially observed, the bias can be substantial, relative to the magnitude of the exposure coefficient. In settings in which a complete records analysis is valid, the bias is smaller when the exposure is partially observed. However, bias can be larger if the outcome also causes missingness in the exposure. When using MI, it is important to examine, through a combination of data exploration and considering plausible casual diagrams and missingness mechanisms, whether potential auxiliary variables are colliders.