Distribution of Theileria orientalis in Virginia Market Cattle, 2018-2020.

Theileria orientalis, genotype Ikeda, was recently detected in North America. Determining the emerging distribution of this pathogen is critical for understanding spread and developing management strategies. Whole blood samples were collected from cattle at Virginia livestock markets from September 2018 through December 2020. Animals were tested for T. orientalis using a universal and then genotype specific real-time PCR based on the MPSP gene. Prevalence for each genotype was analyzed for temporal trends and mapped by county. Spatial patterns were compared between genotypes and assessed for associations with habitat features, cattle movements through cattle markets and county proximity. Overall, 212 of 1980 samples tested positive for T. orientalis with an overall prevalence of 8.7% (172/1980) for genotype Ikeda, 1.8% (36/1980) for genotype Chitose, 0.2% (3/1980) for genotype Buffeli. The Ikeda genotype increased over time in northern and southwestern Virginia markets. The Ikeda and Chitose genotypes occurred in different regions, with little overlap, but for each genotype, spatial distribution was associated with a combination of cattle movements and environmental factors. Genotype specific qPCR testing and surveillance of cattle from across a wide area of Virginia are providing information on temporal, spatial, and other patterns for this emerging disease.

Optimizing Pooled Testing for Estimating the Prevalence of Multiple Diseases.

Pooled testing can enhance the efficiency of diagnosing individuals with diseases of low prevalence. Often, pooling is implemented using standard groupings (2, 5, 10, etc.). On the other hand, optimization theory can provide specific guidelines in finding the ideal pool size and pooling strategy. This article focuses on optimizing the precision of disease prevalence estimators calculated from multiplex pooled testing data. In the context of a surveillance application of animal diseases, we study the estimation efficiency (i.e., precision) and cost efficiency of the estimators with adjustments for the number of expended tests. This enables us to determine the pooling strategies that offer the highest benefits when jointly estimating the prevalence of multiple diseases, such as theileriosis and anaplasmosis. The outcomes of our work can be used in designing pooled testing protocols, not only in simple pooling scenarios but also in more complex scenarios where individual retesting is performed in order to identify positive cases. A software application using the shiny package in R is provided with this article to facilitate implementation of our methods. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online. Supplementary materials for this article are available at 10.1007/s13253-022-00511-4.

Longitudinal social network analysis of avian mycobacteriosis incidence in a large population of zoo birds.

The goal of this study was to evaluate longitudinal patterns of avian mycobacteriosis spread through a social network. Specifically, we wanted to determine whether the patterns of connectivity over time can predict future infections, and whether this pattern can distinguish between different sources of infection. The study population included 13,409 individuals nested in a larger population of birds that were closely monitored in zoological facilities for over 22 years (1992-2014). A retrospective cohort study design and social network connectivity were used to estimate the association between exposure to an infected bird, and development of mycobacteriosis. Avian mycobacteriosis was diagnosed from histopathology and network connectivity was defined by enclosure histories over discrete time periods. Single-variable and multivariable longitudinal, mixed effects logistic regression models examined whether exposure to infected birds, both directly- and indirectly-connected, was associated with development of mycobacteriosis at the next time step. Our adjusted model showed an increased odds of developing mycobacteriosis (odds ratio = 2.15; 95 % CI: 1.48-3.12; p < 0.001) for birds that were directly exposed (i.e., housed in the same aviary) to another infected bird, compared to those with no exposure. Exposure to a positive, indirectly-connected bird at a previous time step was independently associated with an increased risk of mycobacteriosis (odds ratio = 1.56; 95 % CI: 1.11-2.19). This association persisted in adjusted models even when the indirect contacts were housed in distinctly different aviaries and never had contact with the subject of interest or its environment. Adjusted, risk-stratified models further characterized the type of exposure that increased the risk of avian mycobacteriosis. Birds that were exposed in small aviaries were more likely to develop mycobacteriosis than those exposed in larger aviaries and those with no exposure. The lesion distribution and species of the contact (same species versus different species) were also significant predictors of disease risk. Some findings were sensitive to model variation of time divisions and initiation time. Our study shows avian mycobacteriosis spread through the social network in quantifiable and discernable patterns. We provide empirical evidence that a contagious process drives some of the observed infection, but we also show low transmissibility based on sustained patterns of low incidence over time even when large groups of birds are exposed. Targeted risk mitigation efforts based on the characteristics of the exposure may be effective at reducing risk of avian mycobacteriosis while enhancing population sustainability.

Social network analysis and whole-genome sequencing to evaluate disease transmission in a large, dynamic population: A study of avian mycobacteriosis in zoo birds.

This study combined a social network analysis and whole-genome sequencing (WGS) to test for general patterns of contagious spread of a mycobacterial infection for which pathways of disease acquisition are not well understood. Our population included 275 cases diagnosed with avian mycobacteriosis that were nested in a source population of 16,430 birds at San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance facilities from 1992 through mid-2014. Mycobacteria species were determined using conventional methods and whole genome sequencing (WGS). Mycobacterium avium avium (MAA) and Mycobacterium genavense were the most common species of mycobacteria identified and were present in different proportions across bird taxa. A social network for the birds was constructed from the source population to identify directly and indirectly connected cases during time periods relevant to disease transmission. Associations between network connectivity and genetic similarity of mycobacteria (as determined by clusters of genotypes separated by few single nucleotide polymorphisms, or SNPs) were then evaluated in observed and randomly generated network permutations. Findings showed that some genotypes clustered along pathways of bird connectivity, while others were dispersed throughout the network. The proportion of directly connected birds having a similar mycobacterial genotype was 0.36 and significant (p<0.05). This proportion was higher (0.58) and significant for MAA but not for M. genavense. Evaluations of SNP distributions also showed genotypes of MAA were more related in connected birds than expected by chance; however, no significant patterns of genetic relatedness were identified for M. genavense, although data were sparse. Integrating the WGS analysis of mycobacteria with a social network analysis of their host birds revealed significant genetic clustering along pathways of connectivity, namely for MAA. These findings are consistent with a contagious process occurring in some, but not all, case clusters.

Spatiotemporal network structure among "friends of friends" reveals contagious disease process.

Disease transmission can be identified in a social network from the structural patterns of contact. However, it is difficult to separate contagious processes from those driven by homophily, and multiple pathways of transmission or inexact information on the timing of infection can obscure the detection of true transmission events. Here, we analyze the dynamic social network of a large, and near-complete population of 16,430 zoo birds tracked daily over 22 years to test a novel "friends-of-friends" strategy for detecting contagion in a social network. The results show that cases of avian mycobacteriosis were significantly clustered among pairs of birds that had been in direct contact. However, since these clusters might result due to correlated traits or a shared environment, we also analyzed pairs of birds that had never been in direct contact but were indirectly connected in the network via other birds. The disease was also significantly clustered among these friends of friends and a reverse-time placebo test shows that homophily could not be causing the clustering. These results provide empirical evidence that at least some avian mycobacteriosis infections are transmitted between birds, and provide new methods for detecting contagious processes in large-scale global network structures with indirect contacts, even when transmission pathways, timing of cases, or etiologic agents are unknown.

Immunologic response to antiretroviral therapy by age among treatment-naive patients in Sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the association between age at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and immunologic response over time by stratum of baseline CD4 cell counts. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis of data pooled from four President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief funded countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: General linear models were used to estimate the mean CD4 cell count by age group within groups defined by baseline CD4 cell count. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to estimate time to achieving a CD4 cell count of at least 500 cells/µl by age group and stratified by baseline CD4 cell count. RESULTS: A total of 126 672 previously treatment-naive patients provided 466 482 repeated CD4 cell count measurements over 4 years of ART. The median baseline CD4 cell count for all age groups was less than 200 cells/µl. Patients aged 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, and 60 and older at ART initiation had significantly lower mean CD4 cell counts in most strata and at most time points than those 20-29 years old. Compared with those 20-29, all older age groups had a significantly longer time to, and lower rate of, achieving a CD4 cell count of 500 cells. CONCLUSION: Age is associated with the magnitude of CD4 cell gain and the amount of time it takes to gain cells at different levels of baseline CD4 cell count. The delay in achieving a robust immune response could have significant implications for the risk of tuberculosis reactivation as well as comorbidities associated with age in the management of older HIV-infected patients.

Epidemiology of clinical feline herpesvirus infection in zoo-housed cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus).

OBJECTIVE To determine the incidence of and risk factors for clinical feline herpesvirus (FHV) infection in zoo-housed cheetahs and determine whether dam infection was associated with offspring infection. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. ANIMALS 144 cheetah cubs born in 6 zoos from 1988 through 2007. PROCEDURES Data were extracted from the health records of cheetahs and their dams to identify incident cases of clinical FHV infection and estimate incidence from birth to 18 months of age. Univariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, controlling for correlations among cheetahs with the same dam, were used to identify risk factors for incident FHV infection. RESULTS Cumulative incidence of FHV infection in cheetah cubs was 35% (50/144). No significant association between dam and offspring infection was identified in any model. Factors identified as significant through multivariable analysis varied by age group. For cheetahs up to 3 months of age, the most important predictor of FHV infection was having a dam that had received a preparturition FHV vaccine regimen that included a modified-live virus vaccine versus a dam that had received no preparturition vaccine. Other risk factors included being from a small litter, being born to a primiparous dam, and male sex. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE This study provided the first population-level characterization of the incidence of and risk factors for FHV infection in cheetahs, and findings confirmed the importance of this disease. Recognition that clinical FHV infection in the dam was not a significant predictor of disease in cubs and identification of other significant factors have implications for disease management.

Regulatory Considerations for the Approval of Drugs Against Histomoniasis (Blackhead Disease) in Turkeys, Chickens, and Game Birds in the United States.

Histomoniasis, commonly referred to as blackhead disease, is a serious threat to the turkey and game bird industries worldwide, and it is having an increasingly negative impact on the chicken industry as well. The Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) Center for Veterinary Medicine (CVM), charged with the approval and regulation of new animal drugs in the United States, understands the rising need for the availability of therapeutic options against histomoniasis. CVM has actively engaged in discussions with the poultry industry, academic institutions, and animal health companies regarding the current status of histomoniasis in the United States and varied success of past and current management, prophylactic, and therapeutic interventions that have been used against the disease. As effective options against the disease are severely limited, CVM encourages the poultry industry, academic institutions, and animal health companies to work together to research and develop viable management, prophylactic, and therapeutic strategies, such as litter management, deworming programs, vaccines or other biologics, novel technologies, and animal drugs. CVM also recognizes the potential challenges that the poultry industry, academic institutions, and animal health companies may encounter while working towards the approval of safe and effective drug products for the treatment and control of histomoniasis. With that recognition, CVM encourages interested parties to begin discussions with CVM early in order to align research of the drug product against histomoniasis with the drug approval requirements, such that it leads to the approval of a new animal drug in an efficient and expedient manner. This article provides information about the FDA's regulatory process for the approval of new animal drugs in the United States, with especial emphasis on drug products for the treatment and control of histomoniasis in turkeys, chickens, and game birds.

Spatial Modeling of Wild Bird Risk Factors for Highly Pathogenic A(H5N1) Avian Influenza Virus Transmission.

One of the longest-persisting avian influenza viruses in history, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A(H5N1), continues to evolve after 18 yr, advancing the threat of a global pandemic. Wild waterfowl (family Anatidae) are reported as secondary transmitters of HPAIV and primary reservoirs for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses, yet spatial inputs for disease risk modeling for this group have been lacking. Using geographic information software and Monte Carlo simulations, we developed geospatial indices of waterfowl abundance at 1 and 30 km resolutions and for the breeding and wintering seasons for China, the epicenter of H5N1. Two spatial layers were developed: cumulative waterfowl abundance (WAB), a measure of predicted abundance across species, and cumulative abundance weighted by H5N1 prevalence (WPR), whereby abundance for each species was adjusted based on prevalence values and then totaled across species. Spatial patterns of the model output differed between seasons, with higher WAB and WPR in the northern and western regions of China for the breeding season and in the southeast for the wintering season. Uncertainty measures indicated highest error in southeastern China for both WAB and WPR. We also explored the effect of resampling waterfowl layers from 1 to 30 km resolution for multiscale risk modeling. Results indicated low average difference (less than 0.16 and 0.01 standard deviations for WAB and WPR, respectively), with greatest differences in the north for the breeding season and southeast for the wintering season. This work provides the first geospatial models of waterfowl abundance available for China. The indices provide important inputs for modeling disease transmission risk at the interface of poultry and wild birds. These models are easily adaptable, have broad utility to both disease and conservation needs, and will be available to the scientific community for advanced modeling applications.

Mapping avian influenza transmission risk at the interface of domestic poultry and wild birds.

Emergence of avian influenza viruses with high lethality to humans, such as the currently circulating highly pathogenic A(H5N1) (emerged in 1996) and A(H7N9) cause serious concern for the global economic and public health sectors. Understanding the spatial and temporal interface between wild and domestic populations, from which these viruses emerge, is fundamental to taking action. This information, however, is rarely considered in influenza risk models, partly due to a lack of data. We aim to identify areas of high transmission risk between domestic poultry and wild waterfowl in China, the epicenter of both viruses. Two levels of models were developed: one that predicts hotspots of novel virus emergence between domestic and wild birds, and one that incorporates H5N1 risk factors, for which input data exists. Models were produced at 1 and 30 km spatial resolution, and two temporal seasons. Patterns of risk varied between seasons with higher risk in the northeast, central-east, and western regions of China during spring and summer, and in the central and southeastern regions during winter. Monte-Carlo uncertainty analyses indicated varying levels of model confidence, with lowest errors in the densely populated regions of eastern and southern China. Applications and limitations of the models are discussed within.

Development of a case definition for clinical feline herpesvirus infection in cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) housed in zoos.

The identification of feline herpesvirus (FHV) infected cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) and characterization of shedding episodes is difficult due to nonspecific clinical signs and limitations of diagnostic tests. The goals of this study were to develop a case definition for clinical FHV and describe the distribution of signs. Medical records from six different zoologic institutions were reviewed to identify cheetahs with diagnostic test results confirming FHV. Published literature, expert opinion, and results of a multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) were used to develop a clinical case definition based on 69 episodes in FHV laboratory confirmed (LC) cheetahs. Four groups of signs were identified in the MCA: general ocular signs, serious ocular lesions, respiratory disease, and cutaneous lesions. Ocular disease occurred with respiratory signs alone, with skin lesions alone, and with both respiratory signs and skin lesions. Groups that did not occur together were respiratory signs and skin lesions. The resulting case definition included 1) LC cheetahs; and 2) clinically compatible (CC) cheetahs that exhibited a minimum of 7 day's duration of the clinical sign groupings identified in the MCA or the presence of corneal ulcers or keratitis that occurred alone or in concert with other ocular signs and skin lesions. Exclusion criteria were applied. Application of the case definition to the study population identified an additional 78 clinical episodes, which represented 58 CC cheetahs. In total, 28.8% (93/322) of the population was identified as LC or CC. The distribution of identified clinical signs was similar across LC and CC cheetahs. Corneal ulcers and/or keratitis, and skin lesions were more frequently reported in severe episodes; in mild episodes, there were significantly more cheetahs with ocular-only or respiratory-only disease. Our results provide a better understanding of the clinical presentation of FHV, while presenting a standardized case definition that can both contribute to earlier diagnoses and be used for population-level studies.

A systematic review of the safety of potassium bromide in dogs.

OBJECTIVE: To critically evaluate and summarize available information on the safety of potassium bromide in dogs. DESIGN: Systematic review. SAMPLE: 111 references reporting safety information relevant to potassium bromide published between 1938 and 2011. PROCEDURES: PubMed searches without date limitations were conducted with the terms "potassium bromide" and "sodium bromide" in December 2009 and October 2011. Additional articles were identified through examination of article reference lists and book chapters on seizures in dogs and pharmacology. RESULTS: Reversible neurologic signs were the most consistently reported toxicoses and were generally associated with adjunctive potassium bromide treatment or high serum bromide concentrations. Dermatologic and respiratory abnormalities were rare in dogs. Insufficient information was available to assess the effects of potassium bromide on behavior or to determine the incidence of vomiting, weight gain, polyphagia, pancreatitis, polyuria, polydipsia, or reproductive abnormalities associated with potassium bromide administration. Evidence suggested that administration of potassium bromide with food may alleviate gastrointestinal irritation and that monitoring for polyphagia, thyroid hormone abnormalities, and high serum bromide concentrations may be beneficial. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results suggested that potassium bromide is not an appropriate choice for treatment of every dog with seizures and that practitioners should tailor therapeutic regimens and clinical monitoring to each dog. Abrupt dietary changes or fluid therapy may compromise seizure control or increase the likelihood of adverse events. Availability of an appropriately labeled, approved potassium bromide product could provide better assurance for veterinarians and their clients of the quality, safety, and effectiveness of the product for veterinary use.

The impact of human reservoir of malaria at a community-level on individual malaria occurrence in a low malaria transmission setting along the Thai-Myanmar border.

BACKGROUND: The probability of contracting malaria in a given individual is determined not only by the individual's characteristics, but also the ecological factors that characterize the level of human-vector contact in the population. Examination of the relationship between "individual" and "supra-individual" variables over time is important for understanding the local malaria epidemiology. This is essential for planning effective intervention strategies specifically for each location. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted, which followed a community-cohort of about 3,500 residents in seven hamlets along the Thai-Myanmar border between 1999 and 2006. Potential malaria determinants measured at different levels (temporal variables, individual variables, and hamlet variables) were incorporated into multilevel models to estimate their effects on an individual's risk of malaria attack. RESULTS: The monthly minimum temperature was significantly associated with the seasonal variation of malaria risk. An individual risk of malaria attack decreased by about 50% during the period that active surveillance was conducted; an additional 15% and 25% reduction of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax incidence, respectively, was observed after the use of artesunate-mefloquine combination therapy (ACT) for treatment of P. falciparum. Male children (age < 16 years old) were at highest risk of both P. falciparum and P. vivax attack. An increase in the hamlet's incidence of P. falciparum and P. vivax by 1 per 100 persons in a previous month resulted in 1.14 and 1.34 times increase in the risk of P. falciparum and P. vivax, respectively, among individuals in a particular hamlet. CONCLUSION: In a small area with low malaria transmission intensity, the variation in mosquito abundance is relatively similar across the residential areas; incidence of malaria between hamlets, which reflects the community level of human infectious reservoirs, is an important predictor for the malaria risk among individuals within these hamlets. Therefore, local malaria control strategies should focus on interventions that aim to reduce the gametocyte carriage in the population, such as early detection and treatment programmes and the use of ACT for P. falciparum.

Investigation of factors predicting disease among zoo birds exposed to avian mycobacteriosis.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize infection patterns and identify factors associated with avian mycobacteriosis among zoo birds that were housed with infected enclosure mates. DESIGN: Matched case-control study. ANIMALS: 79 birds with avian mycobacteriosis (cases) and 316 nondiseased birds (controls) of similar age and taxonomic group that were present in the bird collection of the Zoological Society of San Diego from 1991 through 2005. PROCEDURES: Inventory and necropsy records from all eligible, exposed birds (n = 2,413) were examined to determine disease incidence and prevalence in the exposed cohort. Cases were matched in a 1:4 ratio to randomly selected controls of similar age and taxonomic grouping. Risk factors for mycobacteriosis (demographic, temporal, enclosure, and exposure characteristics as well as translocation history) were evaluated with univariate and multivariable conditional logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Disease prevalence and incidence were estimated at 3.5% and 8 cases/1,000 bird-years at risk, respectively. In the multivariable model, cases were more likely to have been imported into the collection, exposed to mycobacteriosis at a young age, exposed to the same bird species, and exposed in small enclosures than were controls. Odds for disease increased with an increasing amount of time spent with other disease-positive birds. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The low incidence of mycobacteriosis and the risk factors identified suggested that mycobacteria may not be easily transmitted through direct contact with infected enclosure mates. Identification of risk factors for avian mycobacteriosis will help guide future management of this disease in zoo bird populations.

Optimally timing primaquine treatment to reduce Plasmodium falciparum transmission in low endemicity Thai-Myanmar border populations.

BACKGROUND: Effective malaria control has successfully reduced the malaria burden in many countries, but to eliminate malaria, these countries will need to further improve their control efforts. Here, a malaria control programme was critically evaluated in a very low-endemicity Thai-Myanmar border population, where early detection and prompt treatment have substantially reduced, though not ended, Plasmodium falciparum transmission, in part due to carriage of late-maturing gametocytes that remain post-treatment. To counter this effect, the WHO recommends the use of a single oral dose of primaquine along with an effective blood schizonticide. However, while the effectiveness of primaquine as a gametocidal agent is widely documented, the mismatch between primaquine's short half-life, the long-delay for gametocyte maturation and the proper timing of primaquine administration have not been studied. METHODS: Mathematical models were constructed to simulate 8-year surveillance data, between 1999 and 2006, of seven villages along the Thai-Myanmar border. A simple model was developed to consider primaquine pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, gametocyte carriage, and infectivity. RESULTS: In these populations, transmission intensity is very low, so the P. falciparum parasite rate is strongly linked to imported malaria and to the fraction of cases not treated. Given a 3.6-day half-life of gametocyte, the estimated duration of infectiousness would be reduced by 10 days for every 10-fold reduction in initial gametocyte densities. Infectiousness from mature gametocytes would last two to four weeks and sustain some transmission, depending on the initial parasite densities, but the residual mature gametocytes could be eliminated by primaquine. Because of the short half-life of primaquine (approximately eight hours), it was immediately obvious that with early administration (within three days after an acute attack), primaquine would not be present when mature gametocytes emerged eight days after the appearance of asexual blood-stage parasites. A model of optimal timing suggests that primaquine follow-up approximately eight days after a clinical episode could further reduce the duration of infectiousness from two to four weeks down to a few days. The prospects of malaria elimination would be substantially improved by changing the timing of primaquine administration and combining this with effective detection and management of imported malaria cases. The value of using primaquine to reduce residual gametocyte densities and to reduce malaria transmission was considered in the context of a malaria transmission model; the added benefit of the primaquine follow-up treatment would be relatively large only if a high fraction of patients (>95%) are initially treated with schizonticidal agents. CONCLUSION: Mathematical models have previously identified the long duration of P. falciparum asexual blood-stage infections as a critical point in maintaining malaria transmission, but infectiousness can persist for two to four weeks because of residual populations of mature gametocytes. Simulations from new models suggest that, in areas where a large fraction of malaria cases are treated, curing the asexual parasitaemia in a primary infection, and curing mature gametocyte infections with an eight-day follow-up treatment with primaquine have approximately the same proportional effects on reducing the infectious period. Changing the timing of primaquine administration would, in all likelihood, interrupt transmission in this area with very good health systems and with very low endemicity.

Association between Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection among offspring and their dams in nondomestic ruminant species housed in a zoo.

The objective of the present study was to determine whether offspring of dams infected with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) have an increased risk for Map infection. Antemortem and postmortem disease surveillance data were used to identify positive and test-negative ruminants born at the Zoological Society of San Diego (ZSSD) between 1991 and 2007 and to estimate cumulative lifetime incidence. A matched case-control study, nested within the population, was conducted and conditional logistic regression analyses were used to quantify the association between infection status of offspring and their dams. Cases (infected ruminants, n = 47) were matched to controls (test-negative ruminants, n = 152) by species, birth date, birth enclosure, and follow-up time to control for confounding factors. The overall cumulative lifetime incidence of infection was estimated at 2.2%, but it decreased over time and varied by species. There was a significant association between infection status of offspring and their dams (odds ratio [OR] = 6.8, P < 0.01), which is consistent with studies in domestic livestock species. The association was stronger for animals whose dam was diagnosed within 2 years of their birth (OR = 9.0, P < 0.01) than for animals whose dam was diagnosed more than 2 years after their birth (OR = 6.0, P < 0.01) compared to animals with test-negative dams. For positive animals born to a positive dam, 85.3% of the Map infections were attributable to having a positive dam. For the entire population of ZSSD ruminants, 28.8% [corrected] of the cases were attributable to having a positive dam. Findings will help guide future management of Map infection in zoo ruminant populations.

Investigation of characteristics and factors associated with avian mycobacteriosis in zoo birds.

The objective of the current study was to identify factors associated with avian mycobacteriosis in zoo birds. Inventory data, population health records, and necropsy data from eligible birds in the Zoological Society of San Diego's (ZSSD) collection from 1991-2005 (n = 13,976) were used to describe disease incidence, prevalence, and postmortem findings. A matched case-control study was then conducted to identify factors describing demographic, temporal, and enclosure characteristics, along with move and exposure histories. Cases (disease-positive birds; n = 167) were matched in a 17 ratio with controls (disease-negative birds; n = 1169) of similar age and taxonomic grouping. Potential risk factors were evaluated using univariate and multivariable conditional logistic regression. Disease prevalence and incidence were estimated for the study period at 1.2% and 3 cases/(1,000 bird-years at risk), respectively. Lesion characteristics and order prevalence are described. In the multivariable model, case birds were more likely to have been previously housed with a bird with mycobacterial disease involving the intestinal tract (odds ratio [OR] = 5.6, P < 0.01) or involving only nonintestinal sites (OR = 2.0, P < 0.01). Cases were more likely to have been imported into the collection than hatched at the ZSSD (OR = 4.2, P < 0.01). Cases were moved among ZSSD enclosures more than controls (OR = 1.1 for each additional move, P < 0.01). Findings will help guide future management of this disease for zoo bird populations.

Epidemiologic analysis of factors associated with local disappearances of native ranid frogs in Arizona.

We examined factors that may independently or synergistically contribute to amphibian population declines. We used epidemiologic case-control methodology to sample and analyze a large database developed and maintained by the Arizona Game and Fish Department that describes historical and currently known ranid frog localities in Arizona, U.S.A. Sites with historical documentation of target ranid species (n= 324) were evaluated to identify locations where frogs had disappeared during the study period (case sites) and locations where frog populations persisted (control sites). Between 1986 and 2003, 117 (36%) of the 324 sites became case sites, of which 105 were used in the analyses. An equal number of control sites were sampled to control for the effects of time. Risk factors, or predictor variables, were defined from environmental data summarized during site surveys and geographic information system data layers. We evaluated risk factors with univariate and multifactorial logistic-regression analyses to derive odds ratios (OR). Odds for local population disappearance were significantly related to 4 factors in the multifactorial model. Disappearance of frog populations increased with increasing elevation (OR = 2.7 for every 500 m, p < 0.01). Sites where disappearances occurred were 4.3 times more likely to have other nearby sites that also experienced disappearances (OR = 4.3, p < 0.01), whereas the odds of disappearance were 6.7 times less (OR = 0.15, p < 0.01) when there was a source population nearby. Sites with disappearances were 2.6 times more likely to have introduced crayfish than were control sites (OR = 2.6, p= 0.04). The identification of factors associated with frog disappearances increases understanding of declines occurring in natural populations and aids in conservation efforts to reestablish and protect native ranids by identifying and prioritizing implicated threats.

Disseminated simian varicella virus infection in an irradiated rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta).

We describe correlative clinicopathological/virological findings from a simian varicella virus (SVV)-seronegative monkey that developed disseminated varicella 105 days after gamma-irradiation. Twelve other monkeys in the colony were also irradiated, none of which developed varicella. Before irradiation, sera from the monkey that developed disseminated infection and one asymptomatic monkey were available. Analysis indicated that subclinical reactivation of latent SVV from an asymptomatic irradiated monkey likely led to disseminated varicella in the seronegative irradiated monkey. These findings parallel those from humans with disseminated varicella infection and support the usefulness of SVV infection as a model for human varicella-zoster virus infection, particularly virus reactivation after gamma-irradiation.

Risk assessment: A model for predicting cross-species transmission of simian foamy virus from macaques (M. fascicularis) to humans at a monkey temple in Bali, Indonesia.

Contact between humans and nonhuman primates (NHPs) frequently occurs at monkey temples (religious sites that have become associated with free-ranging populations of NHPs) in Asia, creating the potential for NHP-human disease transmission. In March 2003 a multidisciplinary panel of experts participated in a workshop designed to model the risk of NHP-human pathogen transmission. The panel developed a risk assessment model to describe the likelihood of cross-species transmission of simian foamy virus (SFV) from temple macaques (Macaca fascicularis) to visitors at monkey temples. SFV is an enzootic simian retrovirus that has been shown to be transmitted from NHPs to humans. In operationalizing the model field data, laboratory data and expert opinions were used to estimate the likelihood of SFV transmission within this context. This model sets the stage for a discussion about modeling as a risk assessment tool and the kinds of data that are required to accurately predict transmission.