Epidemiological comparison of the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, February 2020-April 2021.

BACKGROUND: With reports of surges in COVID-19 case numbers across over 50 countries, country-level epidemiological analysis is required to inform context-appropriate response strategies for containment and mitigation of the outbreak. We aimed to compare the epidemiological features of the first and second waves of COVID-19 in Nigeria. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of the Surveillance Outbreak Response Management and Analysis System data of the first and second epidemiological waves, which were between 27 February and 24 October 2020, and 25 October 2020 to 3 April 2021, respectively. Descriptive statistical measures including frequencies and percentages, test positivity rate (TPR), cumulative incidence (CI) and case fatality rates (CFRs) were compared. A p value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. All statistical analyses were carried out in STATA V.13. RESULTS: There were 802 143 tests recorded during the study period (362 550 and 439 593 in the first and second waves, respectively). Of these, 66 121 (18.2%) and 91 644 (20.8%) tested positive in the first and second waves, respectively. There was a 21.3% increase in the number of tests conducted in the second wave with TPR increasing by 14.3%. CI during the first and second waves were 30.3/100 000 and 42.0/100 000 respectively. During the second wave, confirmed COVID-19 cases increased among females and people 30 years old or younger and decreased among urban residents and individuals with travel history within 14 days of sample collection (p value <0.001). Most confirmed cases were asymptomatic at diagnosis during both waves: 74.9% in the first wave; 79.7% in the second wave. CFR decreased during the second wave (0.7%) compared with the first wave (1.8%). CONCLUSION: Nigeria experienced a larger but less severe second wave of COVID-19. Continued implementation of public health and social measures is needed to mitigate the resurgence of another wave.

Assessing the capacity of symptom scores to predict COVID-19 positivity in Nigeria: a national derivation and validation cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop and validate a symptom prediction tool for COVID-19 test positivity in Nigeria. DESIGN: Predictive modelling study. SETTING: All Nigeria States and the Federal Capital Territory. PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of 43 221 individuals within the national COVID-19 surveillance dataset from 27 February to 27 August 2020. Complete dataset was randomly split into two equal halves: derivation and validation datasets. Using the derivation dataset (n=21 477), backward multivariable logistic regression approach was used to identify symptoms positively associated with COVID-19 positivity (by real-time PCR) in children (≤17 years), adults (18-64 years) and elderly (≥65 years) patients separately. OUTCOME MEASURES: Weighted statistical and clinical scores based on beta regression coefficients and clinicians' judgements, respectively. Using the validation dataset (n=21 744), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values were used to assess the predictive capacity of individual symptoms, unweighted score and the two weighted scores. RESULTS: Overall, 27.6% of children (4415/15 988), 34.6% of adults (9154/26 441) and 40.0% of elderly (317/792) that had been tested were positive for COVID-19. Best individual symptom predictor of COVID-19 positivity was loss of smell in children (AUROC 0.56, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.56), either fever or cough in adults (AUROC 0.57, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.58) and difficulty in breathing in the elderly (AUROC 0.53, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.58) patients. In children, adults and the elderly patients, all scoring approaches showed similar predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive capacity of various symptom scores for COVID-19 positivity was poor overall. However, the findings could serve as an advocacy tool for more investments in resources for capacity strengthening of molecular testing for COVID-19 in Nigeria.

Call for proper documentation of COVID-19 deaths in poor resource setting: a necessity for management of future occurrences.

INTRODUCTION: A Pandemic is an epidemic at a global scale. The word 'epidemic' has the potential to lead to chaotic, unreasoned responses to health problems, especially when used by journalists. Nigeria like other poor resource countries is equally affected by the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Standardization and proper documentation of the mortality of the COVID-19 in the poor-resource countries will help in managing other disease outbreaks in future. This paper calls for improvement in capturing of these data for better planning in the future. AREAS COVERED: Quality data is very essential for policy makers to appreciate any disease condition. In order to present a comprehensive picture of COVID-19 mortality, the deaths were broadly grouped into two as follows: direct and indirect COVID-19 deaths. Most of the current reported deaths seem to be direct deaths. EXPERT OPINION: We propose that for better estimation and standardization, verbal autopsy could be used to differentiate direct/indirect COVID deaths. At full development, this model could be applied to other diseases, outbreaks, or pandemics. The disease surveillance officers, and other health workers can be trained in this regard as well as scaling up the e-surveillance of the DSNOs.

Availability and Continuity of Care for Maternal Health Services in the Primary Health Centres in Nnewi, Nigeria (January - March 2010).

BACKGROUND: In some primary health care settings, even where the health services are not available, provisions are not made to ensure continuity of care. This study aimed to determine the availability and level of continuity of care for maternal health services in the primary health centers (PHCs) in Nnewi, Nigeria. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional survey. Using multistage sampling technique, 280 women utilizing maternal health services from four randomly selected public PHCs in Nnewi, Nigeria were chosen for the study. Data collection employed a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods. RESULTS: The mean ± standard deviation for age of the respondents was 29.2 ± 5.9 years. The facilities studied provided out-patient services, but the only in-patient services provided was for women who delivered or those in labor. None of the facilities is equipped to provide even basic essential obstetric care services. None had standardized a protocol for referring clients, referral forms, a transport system, or a community loan scheme in place. Forty-four (15.7%) women were referred for care outside of the PHCs for the following reasons: Lack of drugs and supplies (9.1%); lack of equipment (90.9%), lack of skilled personnel (45.5%) among others. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that despite the unavailability of some services, appropriate strategies were not in place to ensure the coherent pattern of services within and between the PHCs and other levels of care. Delivery to the clients of comprehensive and integrated maternal health services, and efficient referral systems are thus recommended.

The epidemiology of dependence in older people in Nigeria: prevalence, determinants, informal care, and health service utilization. A 10/66 dementia research group cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the prevalence and determinants of dependence in older Nigerians and associations with informal care and health service utilization. DESIGN: A single-phase cross-sectional catchment area survey. SETTING: Dunukofia, a rural community in southeastern Nigeria. PARTICIPANTS: One thousand two hundred thirty-eight adults aged 65 and older, for whom full data were available on 914. MEASUREMENTS: The full 10/66 Dementia Research Group survey protocol was applied, including ascertainment of depression, cognitive impairment, physical impairments, and self-reported diagnoses. The interviewer rated dependence as not needing care, needing some care, or needing much care. The prevalence of dependence and the independent contribution of underlying health conditions were estimated. Sources of income, care arrangements, caregiver strain, and health service use are described according to level of dependence. RESULTS: The prevalence of dependence was 24.3% (95% confidence interval=22.1-26.5%), with a concentration in participants aged 80 and older. Only 1% of participants received a pension, and fewer than 7% had paid work. Those who were dependent were less likely than others to receive income from their family. Cognitive impairment, physical impairments, stroke, and depression were each independently associated with dependence. Depression made the largest contribution. Dependence was strongly associated with health service use (particularly private doctor and traditional healer services) and with high levels of out-of-pocket expenditure. CONCLUSION: In Nigeria, dependence is an important outcome given rapid demographic aging and increases in chronic disease prevalence in all developing regions. Enhancing the social protection of dependent older adults should be a policy priority. Cognitive and mental disorders are important contributors to disability and dependence; more attention should be given to their prevention, detection, and treatment.

Is poor maternal mortality index in Nigeria a problem of care utilization? A case study of Anambra State.

Maternal mortality in Nigeria is unacceptably high. Some of the reasons may include poor socioeconomic development, weak health care system, low socioeconomic status of women and socio-cultural barriers to care utilization. A cross sectional study was carried out to assess the use of maternal services in Anambra State. A multi stage sampling technique was used to select 800 nursing mothers from the State who were interviewed on the use of maternal services during their last pregnancy. Over 95% of the subjects had formal education. Almost all the subjects (99.7%) attended antenatal clinics during their last pregnancy with 92.3% (646) of them making 4 or more visits before delivery. Over 97% (680) of the deliveries took place in formal health facilities. Obviously, the women in the study population utilize maternal health services. The problem of maternal mortality in the country may not necessarily lie with utilization but with the quality of services.

Is combination therapy for malaria based on user-fees worthwhile and equitable to consumers? Assessment of costs and willingness to pay in Southeast Nigeria.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the equity implications of the costs of an episode of malaria, the benefit/cost ratios of using two artemisinin-based combination therapy (CT) from the consumers' view and inequities in willingness to pay (WTP) for CT. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Southeast Nigeria, where there is a moderate to high level of malaria resistance to chloroquine and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine formulations. WTP was elicited from respondents using the bidding game (BG) and the structured haggling technique (SH). A socio-economic status (SES) index was used to examine the level of inequity in the key variables. In the benefit/cost ratios, the average cost of CT in Nigeria and price of Coartem were, respectively, used as the cost inputs while the mean WTP was the measure of benefit. Multiple regression analyses were used to determine the validity of the WTP estimates. RESULTS: More than 90% of the respondents were willing to pay for CT. The mean WTP in the BG was 301.1 Naira while it was 438.0 Naira in the SH. People in the highest SES quartile (Q4) were more willing to pay for CT than the lowest SES quartile (Q1). In the regression models, the SES quartiles were significantly related to levels of WTP. The benefit/cost ratios were higher in the SH group, and the ratio was only more than 1 using Coartem in only the SH group. The Q1 groups had the least benefit cost-ratios but the trend of SES differentials in benefit/cost ratios were not statistically significant in the BG group but was in the SH group. CONCLUSION: CT based on user-fees may not be worthwhile and equitable because there are economic and equity constraints to its wide-scale use. Benefit/cost ratios depend on the type of questions that were used to elicit WTP. Governments and donors should be willing to commit funds to make CT affordable to the poor consumers for the intervention to be used to significantly reduce the burden of malaria.