The Risk Factors Associated with the Prevalence of Multimorbidity of Anaemia, Malaria, and Malnutrition among Children Aged 6-59 Months in Nigeria.

In the last ten years, multimorbidity in children under the age of five years has become an emerging health issue in developing countries. The study of multimorbidity of anaemia, malaria, and malnutrition (MAMM) among children in Nigeria has not received significant attention. This study aims to investigate what risk factors are associated with the prevalence of multimorbidity among children aged 6 to 59 months in Nigeria. This study used two nationally representative cross-sectional surveys, the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey and the 2018 National Human Development Report. A series of multilevel mixed-effect ordered logistic regression models were used to investigate the associations between child/parent/household variables (at level 1), community-related variables (at level 2) and area-related variables (at level 3), and the multimorbidity outcome (no disease, one disease only, two or more diseases). The results show that 48.3% (4917/10,184) of the sample of children aged 6-59 months display two or more of the disease outcomes. Being a female child, the maternal parent having completed higher education, the mother being anaemic, the household wealth quintile being in the richest category, the proportion of community wealth status being high, the region being in the south, and place of residence being rural were among the significant predictors of MAMM (p < 0.05). The prevalence of MAMM found in this study is unacceptably high. If suitable actions are not urgently taken, Nigeria's ability to actualise SDG-3 will be in grave danger. Therefore, suitable policies are necessary to pave the way for the creation/development of integrated care models to ameliorate this problem.

The Intersection of a Child's Demographics and Household Socioeconomic Status in the Multimorbidity of Malaria, Anaemia, and Malnutrition among Children Aged 6-59 Months in Nigeria.

Multimorbidity of malaria, anemia, and malnutrition (MAMM) is a condition in which an individual has two or more of these health conditions, and is becoming an emergent public health concern in sub-Saharan African countries. The independent associations of a child's demographic variables and household socioeconomic (HSE) disparities with a child's health outcomes have been established in the literature. However, the effects of the intersection of these factors on MAMM, while accounting for other covariates, have not been studied. Therefore, this study aimed to determine how children's sex, age, and household socioeconomic status interact to explain the variations in MAMM among children aged 6-59 months in Nigeria. Data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey and the 2018 National Human Development Report (NHDR) were used. This study included weighted samples of 10,184 children aged 6-59 months in Nigeria. A three-level multilevel mixed effect ordinal logistic regression model was used, such that individual characteristics at level 1 were nested in communities at level 2 and nested in states at level 3. Subsequently, predictive probability charts and average adjusted probability tables were used to interpret the intersectional effects. Five models were created in this scenario. Model 1 is the interaction between the child's sex and household wealth status; model 2 is the interaction between the child's sex and age; model 3 is the interaction between the child's age and household wealth status; model 4 has the three two-way interactions of the child's sex, age, and household wealth status; and model 5 includes model 4 and the three-way interactions between a child's sex, age, and household wealth quintiles; while accounting for other covariates in each of the models. The prevalence of children with a 'none of the three diseases' outcome was 17.3% (1767/10,184), while 34.4% (3499/10,184) had 'only one of the diseases', and 48.3% (4918/10,184) had 'two or more' MAMMs. However, in the multivariate analyses, model 3 was the best fit compared with other models, so the two-way interaction effects of a child's age and household wealth status are significant predictors in the model. Children aged 36-47 months living in the poorest households had a probability of 0.11, 0.18, and 0.32 of existing with MAMM above the probability of children of the same age who live in the middle class, more prosperous, and richest households, respectively, while all other covariates were held constant. Thus, the variation in the prevalence of MAMM in children of different ages differs depending on the household wealth quintile. In other words, in older children, the variations in MAMM become more evident between the richer and the poorer household quintiles. Therefore, it is recommended that policies that are geared toward economic redistribution will help bridge the disparities observed in the prevalence of multiple diseases among children aged 6-59 months in Nigeria.

Socio-economic, demographic, and contextual predictors of malnutrition among children aged 6-59 months in Nigeria.

Malnutrition has remained a global public health issue, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Researchers have committed to studying malnutrition (especially in children under the age of five) to address the nine malnutrition targets, set by the WHO to be achieved by 2025. This study seeks to evaluate the prevalence, the individual and contextual predictors of malnutrition among children aged 6-59 months across Nigeria and its states. Two separates, independently collected, nationally representative cross-sectional surveys, the National Human Development Report (NHDR 2018) and the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (2018 NDHS) were linked for this study. Spatial map was used to describe the prevalence of malnutrition, a 3-level multivariate multilevel logistic regression models were fitted where children/individuals (at level 1) were nested in communities/clusters (at level 2) and nested in states (at level 3). A weighted sample of 7,770 children 6-59 months were considered in this study. The results showed that an estimated 43.6% of children aged 6-59 months are poorly nourished in Nigeria. The proportions of poorly nourished children were generally highest in the Northern Nigeria. Child's gender, age, birth size, preceding birth order, anaemia status, maternal education, work status, body weight, household wealth status, number of bedrooms were among individual/household predictors of malnutrition. On the community level, being from community with high wealth index, distance to nearest health facilities is no big problem. Regional variations and gender inequality index were the state level predictors of malnutrition among children in Nigeria. This study has shown that two-third of children aged 6-59 months in Nigeria were poorly nourished, an indication of a growing concern of double burden of malnutrition in Nigeria.

Analysing cluster randomised controlled trials using GLMM, GEE1, GEE2, and QIF: results from four case studies.

BACKGROUND: Using four case studies, we aim to provide practical guidance and recommendations for the analysis of cluster randomised controlled trials. METHODS: Four modelling approaches (Generalized Linear Mixed Models with parameters estimated by maximum likelihood/restricted maximum likelihood; Generalized Linear Models with parameters estimated by Generalized Estimating Equations (1st order or second order) and Quadratic Inference Function, for analysing correlated individual participant level outcomes in cluster randomised controlled trials were identified after we reviewed the literature. We systematically searched the online bibliography databases of MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO (via OVID), CINAHL (via EBSCO), and SCOPUS. We identified the above-mentioned four statistical analytical approaches and applied them to four case studies of cluster randomised controlled trials with the number of clusters ranging from 10 to 100, and individual participants ranging from 748 to 9,207. Results were obtained for both continuous and binary outcomes using R and SAS statistical packages. RESULTS: The intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC) estimates for the case studies were less than 0.05 and are consistent with the observed ICC values commonly reported in primary care and community-based cluster randomised controlled trials. In most cases, the four methods produced similar results. However, in a few analyses, quadratic inference function produced different results compared to the generalized linear mixed model, first-order generalized estimating equations, and second-order generalized estimating equations, especially in trials with small to moderate numbers of clusters. CONCLUSION: This paper demonstrates the analysis of cluster randomised controlled trials with four modelling approaches. The results obtained were similar in most cases, however, for trials with few clusters we do recommend that the quadratic inference function should be used with caution, and where possible a small sample correction should be used. The generalisability of our results is limited to studies with similar features to our case studies, for example, studies with a similar-sized ICC. It is important to conduct simulation studies to comprehensively evaluate the performance of the four modelling approaches.

Cutaneous Perfusion Dynamics of the Lower Abdomen in Healthy Normal Weight, Overweight and Obese Women: Methods Development Using Infrared Thermography with Applications for Future Wound Management after Caesarean Section.

BACKGROUND: Evidence has shown an association between obesity and an increased risk of wound infection after caesarean section. This study was designed to examine if abdominal subcutaneous adiposity impacts upon cutaneous perfusion dynamics. METHODS: Mild cool challenge, followed by real-time video thermography, was developed to map the appearance of abdominal 'hot spots'. Correspondence of marked 'spots' with audible Doppler and colour and power Doppler ultrasound was performed. RESULTS: 60 healthy, afebrile, women (20-68 years; BMI 18.5-44 kg/m2) were recruited. Hot spot appearance consistently corresponded with audible Doppler sounds. Colour and power Doppler ultrasound revealed vessels at depths of 3-22 mm. No statistically significant interactions for BMI, abdominal circumference or environmental parameters were observed for hot spot count. The temperature of cold stimulus was significant for effects on spot count, but only for the first minute (p = 0.001). Thereafter, effects on spot numbers were not significant. CONCLUSIONS: Cutaneous 'perforator' mapping of the abdomen (via hot spot appearance) in healthy women, as a potential and future method for risk of perfusion-dependent wound healing complications, reveals that bedside mapping of skin perfusion is feasible over a short interval. Hot spot number was not influenced by BMI or indicators of central fat distribution (abdominal circumference) indicating variability in an individual's vascular anatomy. This study provides the underpinning methodology for personalised perfusion assessment after incisional surgery which may be a more reliable indicator of potential healing complications than body habitus as is currently the norm.

Catheter insertion techniques for improving catheter function and clinical outcomes in peritoneal dialysis patients.

BACKGROUND: Peritoneal dialysis (PD) relies on the optimal functionality of the flexible plastic PD catheter present within the peritoneal cavity to enable effective treatment. As a result of limited evidence, it is uncertain if the PD catheter's insertion method influences the rate of catheter dysfunction and, thus, the quality of dialysis therapy. Numerous variations of four basic techniques have been adopted in an attempt to improve and maintain PD catheter function. This review evaluates the association between PD catheter insertion technique and associated differences in  PD catheter function and post-PD catheter insertion complications OBJECTIVES: Our aims were to 1) evaluate if a specific technique used for PD catheter insertion has lower rates of PD catheter dysfunction (early and late) and technique failure; and 2) examine if any of the available techniques results in a reduction in post-procedure complication rates including postoperative haemorrhage, exit-site infection and peritonitis. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Kidney and Transplant Register of Studies up to 24 November 2022 through contact with the Information Specialist using search terms relevant to this review. Studies in the Register are identified through searches of CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and EMBASE, conference proceedings, the International Clinical Trials Register (ICTRP) Search Portal and ClinicalTrials.gov. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) examining adults and children undergoing PD catheter insertion. The studies examined any two PD catheter insertion techniques, including laparoscopic, open-surgical, percutaneous and peritoneoscopic insertion. Primary outcomes of interest were PD catheter function and technique survival.  DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently performed data extraction and assessed the risk of bias for all included studies. Main outcomes in the Summary of Findings tables include primary outcomes - early PD catheter function, long-term PD catheter function, technique failure and postoperative complications. A random effects model was used to perform meta-analyses; risk ratios (RRs) were calculated for dichotomous outcomes, and mean differences (MD) were calculated for continuous outcomes, using 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for effect estimates. The certainty of the evidence was evaluated using the GRADE (Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation) approach.  MAIN RESULTS: Seventeen studies were included in this review. Nine studies were suitable for inclusion in quantitative meta-analysis (670 randomised participants). Five studies compared laparoscopic with open PD catheter insertion, and four studies compared a 'medical' insertion technique with open surgical PD catheter insertion: percutaneous (2) and peritoneoscopic (2). Random sequence generation was judged to be at low risk of bias in eight studies. Allocation concealment was reported poorly, with only five studies judged to be at low risk of selection bias. Performance bias was judged to be high risk in 10 studies. Attrition bias and reporting bias were judged to be low in 14 and 12 studies, respectively. Six studies compared laparoscopic PD catheter insertion with open surgical insertion. Five studies could be meta-analysed (394 participants). For our primary outcomes, data were either not reported in a format that could be meta-analysed (early PD catheter function, long-term catheter function) or not reported at all (technique failure). One death was reported in the laparoscopic group and none in the open surgical group. In low certainty evidence, laparoscopic PD catheter insertion may make little or no difference to the risk of peritonitis (4 studies, 288 participants: RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.48; I² = 7%), PD catheter removal (4 studies, 257 participants: RR 1.15, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.64; I² = 0%), and dialysate leakage (4 studies, 330 participants: RR 1.40, 95% CI 0.49 to 4.02; I² = 0%), but may reduce the risk of haemorrhage (2 studies, 167 participants: RR 1.68, 95% CI 0.28 to 10.31; I² = 33%) and catheter tip migration (4 studies, 333 participants: RR 0.43, 95% CI 0.20 to 0.92; I² = 12%). Four studies compared a medical insertion technique with open surgical insertion (276 participants). Technique failure was not reported, and no deaths were reported (2 studies, 64 participants). In low certainty evidence, medical insertion may make little or no difference to early PD catheter function (3 studies, 212 participants: RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.29 to 1.83; I² = 0%), while one study reported long-term PD function may improve with peritoneoscopic insertion (116 participants: RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.92). Peritoneoscopic catheter insertion may reduce the episodes of early peritonitis (2 studies, 177 participants: RR 0.21, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.71; I² = 0%) and dialysate leakage (2 studies, 177 participants: RR 0.13, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.71; I² = 0%). Medical insertion had uncertain effects on catheter tip migration (2 studies, 90 participants: RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.15 to 3.73; I² = 0%). Most of the studies examined were small and of poor quality, increasing the risk of imprecision. There was also a significant risk of bias therefore cautious interpretation of results is advised. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The available studies show that the evidence needed to guide clinicians in developing their PD catheter insertion service is lacking. No PD catheter insertion technique had lower rates of PD catheter dysfunction. High-quality, evidence-based data are urgently required, utilising multi-centre RCTs or large cohort studies, in order to provide definitive guidance relating to PD catheter insertion modality.

Risk Factors Associated with Multimorbidity among Children Aged Under-Five Years in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Scoping Review.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Globally, the prevalence of multimorbidity (defined as the cooccurrence of two or more diseases in an individual without reference to an index disease) is greater than 33%. Consequently, childhood multimorbidity, a growing public health concern in Low- and Middle-Income-Countries (LMICs), frequently has an impact on children's health. Therefore, the aim of this scoping review was to locate and describe studies that investigate the association between socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors and the prevalence of multimorbidity among children aged under five years in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). METHODS/DESIGN: We searched MEDLINE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science for papers written in English, and published between January 1990 and March 2022. The search included papers that focused on children aged under five years with multimorbidity from Sub-Saharan Africa and used classical regression methods in their analysis. RESULTS: A total of 261 articles were identified. Out of the 66 articles selected for full-text reading, 60 were removed for various reasons. Therefore, data from a sample of six articles were finally extracted and reported in this study. The sample size for the 6 studies included ranged from 2343 to 193,065 children under five years of age. There were six distinct disease conditions (Pneumonia, diarrhoea, malaria, being overweight, stunting, and anaemia) analysed in the included studies. One of the studies had three concurrent diseases, while the other five studies had two current diseases as their multimorbidity outcome of interest. The prevalence of multimorbidity in these six studies ranged from 1.2% to 24.8%. CONCLUSIONS: The relatively few studies found in this research area is an indication of an evidence deficit/knowledge gap yearning to be filled to help policymakers in coming up with integrated multimorbidity care for children in SSA.

Home Waking Salivary Cortisone to Screen for Adrenal Insufficiency.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, adults and children are at risk of adrenal insufficiency as a result of adrenal suppression from use of anti-inflammatory glucocorticoids and opiates, as well as infectious diseases. The adrenocorticotropin (ACTH) stimulation test is the reference standard for diagnosis of adrenal insufficiency but requires clinic attendance and venesection. Salivary cortisone reflects free serum cortisol, and samples can be collected at home and posted to a laboratory. We tested whether home waking salivary cortisone level could be used to screen for adrenal insufficiency. METHODS: A prospective, diagnostic accuracy study was performed in patients at high risk of adrenal insufficiency. Patients collected a home salivary sample on waking and then attended the clinical facility for an ACTH stimulation test. Salivary cortisone was measured by liquid chromatography­tandem mass spectrometry. Receiver-operating characteristic curves were computed, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated. RESULTS: Two hundred twenty patients were recruited. As measured by an ACTH stimulation test, the prevalence of adrenal insufficiency was 44%. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for waking salivary cortisone as a predictor of adrenal insufficiency was 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92 to 0.97). Cutoffs to ensure a minimum of 95% sensitivity and specificity gave a negative predictive value of 96% (95% CI, 90 to 99) and a positive predictive value of 95% (95% CI, 87 to 99) to exclude and confirm adrenal insufficiency, respectively. Waking salivary cortisone data provided information similar to that of an ACTH stimulation test in 70% of participants. Eighty-three percent of patients preferred home salivary collection to clinic attendance. CONCLUSIONS: Home waking salivary cortisone sampling has accuracy for the diagnosis of adrenal insufficiency similar to that of a standard ACTH stimulation test. Patients found the at-home test to be more convenient than the hospital-based test. (Funded by the National Institute for Health Research.)

The Safety INdEx of Prehospital On Scene Triage (SINEPOST) study: The development and validation of a risk prediction model to support ambulance clinical transport decisions on-scene.

One of the main problems currently facing the delivery of safe and effective emergency care is excess demand, which causes congestion at different time points in a patient's journey. The modern case-mix of prehospital patients is broad and complex, diverging from the traditional 'time critical accident and emergency' patients. It now includes many low-acuity patients and those with social care and mental health needs. In the ambulance service, transport decisions are the hardest to make and paramedics decide to take more patients to the ED than would have a clinical benefit. As such, this study asked the following research questions: In adult patients attending the ED by ambulance, can prehospital information predict an avoidable attendance? What is the simulated transportability of the model derived from the primary outcome? A linked dataset of 101,522 ambulance service and ED ambulance incidents linked to their respective ED care record from the whole of Yorkshire between 1st July 2019 and 29th February 2020 was used as the sample for this study. A machine learning method known as XGBoost was applied to the data in a novel way called Internal-External Cross Validation (IECV) to build the model. The results showed great discrimination with a C-statistic of 0.81 (95%CI 0.79-0.83) and excellent calibration with an O:E ratio was 0.995 (95% CI 0.97-1.03), with the most important variables being a patient's mobility, their physiological observations and clinical impression with psychiatric problems, allergic reactions, cardiac chest pain, head injury, non-traumatic back pain, and minor cuts and bruising being the most important. This study has successfully developed a decision-support model that can be transformed into a tool that could help paramedics make better transport decisions on scene, known as the SINEPOST model. It is accurate, and spatially validated across multiple geographies including rural, urban, and coastal. It is a fair algorithm that does not discriminate new patients based on their age, gender, ethnicity, or decile of deprivation. It can be embedded into an electronic Patient Care Record system and automatically calculate the probability that a patient will have an avoidable attendance at the ED, if they were transported. This manuscript complies with the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement (Moons KGM, 2015).

Supporting the ambulance service to safely convey fewer patients to hospital by developing a risk prediction tool: Risk of Adverse Outcomes after a Suspected Seizure (RADOSS)-protocol for the mixed-methods observational RADOSS project.

INTRODUCTION: Ambulances services are asked to further reduce avoidable conveyances to emergency departments (EDs). Risk of Adverse Outcomes after a Suspected Seizure seeks to support this by: (1) clarifying the risks of conveyance and non-conveyance, and (2) developing a risk prediction tool for clinicians to use 'on scene' to estimate the benefits an individual would receive if conveyed to ED and risks if not. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Mixed-methods, multi-work package (WP) project. For WP1 and WP2 we shall use an existing linked data set that tracks urgent and emergency care (UEC) use of persons served by one English regional ambulance service. Risk tools are specific to clinical scenarios. We shall use suspected seizures in adults as an exemplar.WP1: Form a cohort of patients cared for a seizure by the service during 2019/2020. It, and nested Knowledge Exchange workshops with clinicians and service users, will allow us to: determine the proportions following conveyance and non-conveyance that die and/or recontact UEC system within 3 (/30) days; quantify the proportion of conveyed incidents resulting in 'avoidable ED attendances' (AA); optimise risk tool development; and develop statistical models that, using information available 'on scene', predict the risk of death/recontact with the UEC system within 3 (/30) days and the likelihood of an attendance at ED resulting in an AA.WP2: Form a cohort of patients cared for a seizure during 2021/2022 to 'temporally' validate the WP1 predictive models.WP3: Complete the 'next steps' workshops with stakeholders. Using nominal group techniques, finalise plans to develop the risk tool for clinical use and its evaluation. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: WP1a and WP2 will be conducted under database ethical approval (IRAS 307353) and Confidentiality Advisory Group (22/CAG/0019) approval. WP1b and WP3 have approval from the University of Liverpool Central Research Ethics Committee (11450). We shall engage in proactive dissemination and knowledge mobilisation to share findings with stakeholders and maximise evidence usage.

Statistical analysis of Nkoulou soils properties and suitability for earthen constructions.

The present work consists of sampling, characterizing, classifying, and studying the soils of the locality of Nkoulou for the manufacture of cement-stabilized compressed earth bricks (CEBs) and possible use in road building. 08 samples were taken on 02 sites. Chemical and mineralogical characterization identified these soils as ferric-dominated laterites consisting of quartz, illite, hematite, kaolinite, goethite, gibbsite, muscovite, and magnesite associated with trace minerals. The studied soils have an average natural water content of 11.73% and average values of specific gravity of 2.51 and 2.48 (respectively for site N°1 and site N°2). These soils are mainly composed of gravel followed by sand and are classified as Group B fine-grained soils according to the French Road Grading Manual (GTR). The natural water content (W) shows a good correlation with clay content (R = 0.75), and silt content (R = 0.73). The CBR Index (ICBR) meanwhile has a good correlation with the silt content (R = -0.69), similar between ICBR and maximum dry density (R = 0.73). According to CRATERRE Nkoulou soils can be used as well in the manufacture of CEBs as in the realization of road works in layers of fill. The cement stabilization of the compressed soil specimens allows the mechanical strength to increase with the stabilization rate, just as the water absorption of the specimens which also varies with the fines content, and the curing time according to the correlation study. These results allow us to establish the predictive model of compressive strength and flexural strength as a function of cement content and time with R2 = 0.75 and R2 = 0.93, respectively.

Individual, household and area predictors of anaemia among children aged 6-59 months in Nigeria.

Objectives: This study aims to determine the prevalence of anaemia among children aged 6-59 months in all states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), and to quantify the predicted probabilities by individual, household and area factors. Study design: This study is a secondary analysis of data sets from two national representative cross-sectional surveys in Nigeria: the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (2018 NDHS) and the National Human Development Index (2018 NHDR). The state human development index (HDI) and the state multidimensional poverty index (MPI) from the 2018 NHDR were incorporated into the 2018 NDHS. Methods: The study included a weighted sample of 10,222 children aged 6-59 months. Both univariate and bivariate analyses were computed to determine the prevalence and factors associated with anaemia status, respectively. Multiple binary logistic regression analyses with adjusted predicted probabilities (APPs) were performed to quantify the predictors' probabilities. Results: The prevalence of anaemia among children aged 6-59 months in Nigeria was 68.1% (6962/10,222). Zamfara state had the highest prevalence (84.0% [266/317]), while Kaduna state recorded the lowest (50.0% [283/572]). The APPs of being anaemic decreased from 82.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 80.0-85.8) for children aged 6-18 months to 60.6% (95% CI: 56.8-64.4) for children aged 43-59 months, when other predictors were held constant. The APP for a child of an anaemic mother is 10.2% points higher than the APP for a child whose mother is not anaemic. In addition, the APPs for children decreased as the age group of their mothers increased. A child from a state that is mildly deprived in the MPI has a lower APP (67.2% [95% CI: 62.2-72.2]) compared with a child from highly deprived MPI state (79.0% [95% CI: 73.4-84.5]). Conclusions: Health strategies, including supplementation programmes, should be carried out at both ante-natal and post-natal clinics to reduce the prevalence of anaemia, especially in vulnerable population groups.

A descriptive study of samples sizes used in agreement studies published in the PubMed repository.

INTRODUCTION: A sample size justification is required for all studies and should give the minimum number of subjects to be recruited for the study to achieve its primary objective. The aim of this review is to describe sample sizes from agreement studies with continuous or categorical endpoints and different methods of assessing agreement, and to determine whether sample size justification was provided. METHODS: Data were gathered from the PubMed repository with a time interval of 28th September 2018 to 28th September 2020. The search returned 5257 studies of which 82 studies were eligible for final assessment after duplicates and ineligible studies were excluded. RESULTS: We observed a wide range of sample sizes. Forty-six studies (56%) used a continuous outcome measure, 28 (34%) used categorical and eight (10%) used both. Median sample sizes were 50 (IQR 25 to 100) for continuous endpoints and 119 (IQR 50 to 271) for categorical endpoints. Bland-Altman limits of agreement (median sample size 65; IQR 35 to 124) were the most common method of statistical analysis for continuous variables and Kappa coefficients for categorical variables (median sample size 71; IQR 50 to 233). Of the 82 studies assessed, only 27 (33%) gave justification for their sample size. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the importance of a sample size justification, we found that two-thirds of agreement studies did not provide one. We recommend that all agreement studies provide rationale for their sample size even if they do not include a formal sample size calculation.

Measuring the impact introducing NHS 111 online had on the NHS 111 telephone service and the wider NHS urgent care system: an observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To explore what impact introducing the National Health Service (NHS) 111 online service had on the number of phone calls to the NHS 111 telephone service and the NHS urgent care system. DESIGN: Observational study using a dose-response interrupted time series model and random-effects meta- analysis to estimate the average effect. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: NHS 111 telephone and online contacts for 18 NHS 111 area codes in England. NHS 111 telephone and online contacts data were collected between October 2010 to December 2019 and January 2018 to December 2019, respectively. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome: the number of triaged calls to the NHS 111 telephone service following the introduction of NHS 111 online. SECONDARY OUTCOMES: total calls to the NHS 111 telephone service, total number of emergency ambulance referrals or advice to contact 999, total number of advice to attend an emergency department or other urgent care treatment facility, and total number of advice to contact primary care. RESULTS: For triaged calls, the overall incidence rate ratio (IRR) per 1000 online contacts was 1.013 (95% CI: 0.996 to 1.029, p=0.127). For total calls, the overall IRR per 1000 online contacts was 1.008 (95% CI: 0.992 to 1.025, p=0.313). For emergency ambulance referrals or advice to contact 999, the overall IRR per 1000 online contacts was 1.067 (95% CI: 1.035 to 1.100, p<0.001). For advice to attend an emergency department or other urgent care treatment facility, the overall IRR per 1000 online contacts is 1.050 (95% CI: 1.010 to 1.092, p=0.014). And finally, for those advised to contact primary care, the overall IRR per 1000 online contacts is 1.051 (95% CI: 1.027 to 1.076, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: It was found that the NHS 111 online service has little impact on the number of triaged and total calls, suggesting that the workload for the NHS 111 telephone service has not increased or decreased as a result of introducing NHS 111 online. However, there was evidence to suggest an increase in the overall number of disposition recommendations (ambulance, emergency department and primary care) for NHS 111 telephone and online services combined following the introduction of the NHS 111 online service.

Creating a Real-World Linked Research Platform for Analyzing the Urgent and Emergency Care System.

BACKGROUND: This article describes the development of a system-based data platform for research developed to provide a detailed picture of the characteristics of the Urgent and Emergency Care system in 1 region of the United Kingdom. DATA SET DEVELOPMENT: CUREd is an integrated research data platform that describes the urgent and emergency care system in 1 region of the United Kingdom on almost 30 million patient contacts within the system. We describe regulatory approvals required, data acquisition, cleaning, and linkage. DATA SET ANALYSES: The data platform covers 2011 to 2017 for 14 acute National Health Service (NHS) Hospital Trusts, 1 ambulance service, the national telephone advice service (NHS 111), and 19 emergency departments. We describe 3 analyses undertaken: 1) Analyzing triage patterns from the NHS 111 telephone helpline using routine data linked to other urgent care services, we found that the current triage algorithms have high rates of misclassifying calls. 2) Applying an algorithm to consistently identify avoidable attendances for pediatric patients, we identified 21% of pediatric attendances to the emergency department as avoidable. 3) Using complex systems analysis to examine patterns of frequent attendance in urgent care, we found that frequent attendance is stable over time but varies by individual patient. This implies that frequent attendance is more likely to be a function of the system overall. DISCUSSION: We describe the processes necessary to produce research-ready data that link care across the components of the urgent and emergency care system. Making the use of routine data commonplace will require partnership between the collectors, owners, and guardians of the data and researchers and technical teams. HIGHLIGHTS: This article describes the development of a system-level data platform for research using routine patient-level data from the urgent and emergency care system in 1 region of the United Kingdom.The article describes how the data were acquired, cleaned, and linked and the challenges faced when undertaking analysis with the data.The data set has been used to understand patient use of the system, journeys once in the system, and outcomes following its use, for example, patterns of frequent use within urgent care and accuracy of referral decisions within the system.

Recruitment, consent and retention of participants in randomised controlled trials: a review of trials published in the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Journals Library (1997-2020).

OBJECTIVES: To review the consent, recruitment and retention rates for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) funded by the UK's National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) and published in the online NIHR Journals Library between January 1997 and December 2020. DESIGN: Comprehensive review. SETTING: RCTs funded by the NIHR and published in the NIHR Journals Library. DATA EXTRACTION: Information relating to the trial characteristics, sample size, recruitment and retention. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the recruitment rate (number of participants recruited per centre per month). Secondary outcomes were the target sample size and whether it was achieved; consent rates (percentage of eligible participants who consented and were randomised) and retention rates (percentage of randomised participants retained and assessed with valid primary outcome data). RESULTS: This review identified 388 individual RCTs from 379 reports in the NIHR Journals Library. The final recruitment target sample size was achieved in 63% (245/388) of the RCTs. The original recruitment target was revised in 30% (118/388) of trials (downwards in 67% (79/118)). The median recruitment rate (participants per centre per month) was found to be 0.95 (IQR: 0.42-2.60); the median consent rate was 72% (IQR: 50%-88%) and the median retention rate was estimated at 88% (IQR: 80%-97%). CONCLUSIONS: There is considerable variation in the consent, recruitment and retention rates in publicly funded RCTs. Although the majority of (6 out of 10) trials in this review achieved their final target sample; 3 out of 10 trials revised their original target sample size (downwards in 7 out of 10 trials). Investigators should bear this in mind at the planning stage of their study and not be overly optimistic about their recruitment projections.

Statistical analysis of publicly funded cluster randomised controlled trials: a review of the National Institute for Health Research Journals Library.

BACKGROUND: In cluster randomised controlled trials (cRCTs), groups of individuals (rather than individuals) are randomised to minimise the risk of contamination and/or efficiently use limited resources or solve logistic and administrative problems. A major concern in the primary analysis of cRCT is the use of appropriate statistical methods to account for correlation among outcomes from a particular group/cluster. This review aimed to investigate the statistical methods used in practice for analysing the primary outcomes in publicly funded cluster randomised controlled trials, adherence to the CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) reporting guidelines for cRCTs and the recruitment abilities of the cluster trials design. METHODS: We manually searched the United Kingdom's National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) online Journals Library, from 1 January 1997 to 15 July 2021 chronologically for reports of cRCTs. Information on the statistical methods used in the primary analyses was extracted. One reviewer conducted the search and extraction while the two other independent reviewers supervised and validated 25% of the total trials reviewed. RESULTS: A total of 1942 reports, published online in the NIHR Journals Library were screened for eligibility, 118 reports of cRCTs met the initial inclusion criteria, of these 79 reports containing the results of 86 trials with 100 primary outcomes analysed were finally included. Two primary outcomes were analysed at the cluster-level using a generalized linear model. At the individual-level, the generalized linear mixed model was the most used statistical method (80%, 80/100), followed by regression with robust standard errors (7%) then generalized estimating equations (6%). Ninety-five percent (95/100) of the primary outcomes in the trials were analysed with appropriate statistical methods that accounted for clustering while 5% were not. The mean observed intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC) was 0.06 (SD, 0.12; range, - 0.02 to 0.63), and the median value was 0.02 (IQR, 0.001-0.060), although 42% of the observed ICCs for the analysed primary outcomes were not reported. CONCLUSIONS: In practice, most of the publicly funded cluster trials adjusted for clustering using appropriate statistical method(s), with most of the primary analyses done at the individual level using generalized linear mixed models. However, the inadequate analysis and poor reporting of cluster trials published in the UK is still happening in recent times, despite the availability of the CONSORT reporting guidelines for cluster trials published over a decade ago.

Non-urgent emergency department attendances in children: a retrospective observational analysis.

INTRODUCTION: A significant proportion of ED attendances in children may be non-urgent attendances (NUAs), which could be better managed elsewhere. This study aimed to quantify NUAs and urgent attendances (UAs) in children to ED and determine which children present in this way and when. METHODS: Dataset extracted from the CUREd research database containing linked data on the provision of care in Yorkshire and Humber. Analysis focused on children's ED attendances (April 2014-March 2017). Summary statistics and odds ratios (OR) comparing NUAs and UAs were examined by: age, mode and time of arrival and deprivation alongside comparing summary statistics for waiting, treatment and total department times. RESULTS: NUAs were more likely in younger children: OR for NUA in children aged 1-4 years, 0.82 (95% CI: 0.80 to 0.83), age 15 years, 0.39 (95% CI: 0.38 to 0.40), when compared with those under 1 year. NUAs were more likely to arrive out of hours (OOHs) compared with in hours: OR 1.19 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.20), and OOHs arrivals were less common in older children compared with those under 1 year: age 1-4 years, 0.87 (95% CI: 0.84 to 0.89) age 15 years, 0.66 (95% CI: 0.63 to 0.69). NUAs also spent less total time in the ED, with a median (IQR) of 98 min (60-147) compared with 127 min (80-185) for UAs. CONCLUSION: A substantial proportion of ED attendances in children are NUAs. Our data suggest there are particular groups of children for whom targeted interventions would be most beneficial. Children under 5 years would be such a group, particularly in providing accessible, timely care outside of usual community care opening hours.

The Safety INdEx of Prehospital On Scene Triage (SINEPOST) study: the development and validation of a risk prediction model to support ambulance clinical transport decisions on-scene-a protocol.

BACKGROUND: Demand for both the ambulance service and the emergency department (ED) is rising every year and when this demand is excessive in both systems, ambulance crews queue at the ED waiting to hand patients over. Some transported ambulance patients are 'low-acuity' and do not require the treatment of the ED. However, paramedics can find it challenging to identify these patients accurately. Decision support tools have been developed using expert opinion to help identify these low acuity patients but have failed to show a benefit beyond regular decision-making. Predictive algorithms may be able to build accurate models, which can be used in the field to support the decision not to take a low-acuity patient to an ED. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: All patients in Yorkshire who were transported to the ED by ambulance between July 2019 and February 2020 will be included. Ambulance electronic patient care record (ePCR) clinical data will be used as candidate predictors for the model. These will then be linked to the corresponding ED record, which holds the outcome of a 'non-urgent attendance'. The estimated sample size is 52,958, with 4767 events and an EPP of 7.48. An XGBoost algorithm will be used for model development. Initially, a model will be derived using all the data and the apparent performance will be assessed. Then internal-external validation will use non-random nested cross-validation (CV) with test sets held out for each ED (spatial validation). After all models are created, a random-effects meta-analysis will be undertaken. This will pool performance measures such as goodness of fit, discrimination and calibration. It will also generate a prediction interval and measure heterogeneity between clusters. The performance of the full model will be updated with the pooled results. DISCUSSION: Creating a risk prediction model in this area will lead to further development of a clinical decision support tool that ensures every ambulance patient can get to the right place of care, first time. If this study is successful, it could help paramedics evaluate the benefit of transporting a patient to the ED before they leave the scene. It could also reduce congestion in the urgent and emergency care system. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was retrospectively registered with the ISRCTN: 12121281.

Individual and Contextual Factors Associated with Malaria among Children 6-59 Months in Nigeria: A Multilevel Mixed Effect Logistic Model Approach.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Over the last two decades, malaria has remained a major public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries leading to high morbidity and mortality among children. Nigeria is the world most burdened malaria endemic nation, contributing more than a quarter of global malaria cases. This study determined the prevalence of malaria among children at 6-59 months in Nigeria, and the effects of individual and contextual factors. METHODS: This study utilized data from 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) involving a weighted sample size of 10,185 children who were tested for malaria using rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Given the hierarchical structure of the data set, such that children at Level-1 were nested in communities at Level-2, and nested in states and Federal Capital Territory (FCT) at Level-3, multilevel mixed effect logistic regression models were used for the analysis. RESULTS: The proportion of children 6-59 months of age in Nigeria that had malaria fever positive as assessed by RDTs was 35.5% (3418/10,185), (CI: 33.9-37.1). Kebbi State had 77.7%, (CI: 70.2-83.5), which was the highest proportion of 6-59 months who were malaria positive, next in line was Katsina State with 55.5%, (CI: 47.7-63.1). The Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja had the proportion of 29.6%, (CI: 21.6-39.0), malaria positive children of 6-59 months of age. Children between the age of 48 and 59 months were 2.68 times more likely to have malaria fever than children of ages 6-11 months (AOR = 2.68, 95% CI: 2.03-3.54). In addition, children from the rural area (AOR = 2.12, 95% CI: 1.75-2.57), were more likely to suffer from malaria infection compared to children from urban area. CONCLUSION: The study identified some individual and contextual predictors of malaria among children in Nigeria. These factors identified in this study are potential areas that need to be considered for policy designs and implementations toward control and total elimination of malaria-related morbidity and mortality among children in Nigeria.