Health outcomes 3 months and 6 months after molnupiravir treatment for COVID-19 for people at higher risk in the community (PANORAMIC): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: No randomised controlled trials have yet reported on the effectiveness of molnupiravir on longer term outcomes for COVID-19. The PANORAMIC trial found molnupiravir reduced time to recovery in acute COVID-19 over 28 days. We aimed to report the effect of molnupiravir treatment for COVID-19 on wellbeing, severe and persistent symptoms, new infections, health care and social service use, medication use, and time off work at 3 months and 6 months post-randomisation. METHODS: This study is a follow-up to the main analysis, which was based on the first 28 days of follow-up and has been previously reported. For this multicentre, primary care, open-label, multi-arm, prospective randomised controlled trial conducted in the UK, participants were eligible if aged at least 50 years, or at least 18 years with a comorbidity, and unwell 5 days or less with confirmed COVID-19 in the community. Participants were randomly assigned to the usual care group or molnupiravir group plus usual care (800 mg twice a day for 5 days), which was stratified by age (<50 years or ≥50 years) and vaccination status (at least one dose: yes or no). The primary outcome was hospitalisation or death (or both) at 28 days; all longer term outcomes were considered to be secondary outcomes and included self-reported ratings of wellness (on a scale of 0-10), experiencing any symptom (fever, cough, shortness of breath, fatigue, muscle ache, nausea and vomiting, diarrhoea, loss of smell or taste, headache, dizziness, abdominal pain, and generally feeling unwell) rated as severe (moderately bad or major problem) or persistent, any health and social care use, health-related quality of life (measured by the EQ-5D-5L), time off work or school, new infections, and hospitalisation. FINDINGS: Between Dec 8, 2021, and April 27, 2022, 25 783 participants were randomly assigned to the molnupiravir plus usual care group (n=12 821) or usual care group (n=12 962). Long-term follow-up data were available for 23 008 (89·2%) of 25 784 participants with 11 778 (91·9%) of 12 821 participants in the molnupiravir plus usual care group and 11 230 (86·6%) of 12 963 in the usual care group. 22 806 (99·1%) of 23 008 had at least one previous dose of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Any severe (3 months: adjusted risk difference -1·6% [-2·6% to -0·6%]; probability superiority [p(sup)]>0·99; number needed to treat [NNT] 62·5; 6 months: -1·9% [-2·9% to -0·9%]; p(sup)>0·99, NNT 52·6) or persistent symptoms (3 months: adjusted risk difference -2·1% [-2·9% to -1·5%]; p(sup)>0·99; NNT 47·6; 6 months: -2·5% [-3·3% to -1·6%]; p(sup)>0·99; NNT 40) were reduced in severity, and health-related quality of life (measured by the EQ-5D-5L) improved in the molnupiravir plus usual care group at 3 months and 6 months (3 months: adjusted mean difference 1·08 [0·65 to 1·53]; p(sup)>0·99; 6 months: 1·09 [0·63 to 1·55]; p(sup)>0·99). Ratings of wellness (3 months: adjusted mean difference 0·15 (0·11 to 0·19); p(sup)>0·99; 6 months: 0·12 (0·07 to 0·16); p(sup)>0·99), experiencing any more severe symptom (3 months; adjusted risk difference -1·6% [-2·6% to -0·6%]; p(sup)=0·99; 6 months: -1·9% [-2·9% to -0·9%]; p(sup)>0·99), and health-care use (3 months: adjusted risk difference -1·4% [-2·3% to -0·4%]; p(sup)>0·99; NNT 71·4; 6 months: -0·5% [-1·5% to 0·4%]; p(sup)>0·99; NNT 200) had high probabilities of superiority with molnupiravir treatment. There were significant differences in persistence of any symptom (910 [8·9%] of 10 190 vs 1027 [11%] of 9332, NNT 67) at 6 months, and reported time off work at 3 months (2017 [17·9%] of 11 274 vs 2385 [22·4%] of 10 628) and 6 months (460 [4·4%] of 10 562 vs 527 [5·4%] of 9846; NNT 100). There were no differences in hospitalisations at long-term follow-up. INTERPRETATION: In a vaccinated population, people treated with molnupiravir for acute COVID-19 felt better, experienced fewer and less severe COVID-19 associated symptoms, accessed health care less often, and took less time off work at 6 months. However, the absolute differences in this open-label design are small with high numbers needed to treat. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health and Care Research.

In-person and online mixed method non-randomised studies exploring feasibility and acceptability of HEADS: UP, an adapted Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction programme for stroke survivors experiencing symptoms of anxiety and depression.

BACKGROUND: Depression and anxiety are prevalent after stroke and associated with poor outcomes. We previously co-developed a stroke-specific self-management intervention, HEADS: UP (Helping Ease Anxiety and Depression after Stroke). The two studies reported here aimed to test the feasibility and acceptability of the HEADS: UP course and supporting materials, and research processes ahead of a definitive trial. METHODS: We recruited community-dwelling stroke survivors (SS) ≥ 3 months post-stroke, with symptoms of mood disorder (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale ≥ 8). Participants could 'enrol' a family member/ 'other' to take part with them, if desired. Study 1 tested HEADS: UP delivered in-person, and informed optimisation of research processes and intervention delivery and materials. In a pragmatic response to Covid-related socialising restrictions, HEADS: UP was then adapted for online delivery, tested in Study 2. The primary outcome (both studies) was the feasibility (acceptability, fidelity) of the intervention and of research processes. Quantitative data (including patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) assessing mood and quality of life) and qualitative data were collected pre-/post-intervention. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse quantitative data; a thematic framework approach was used to analyse qualitative data. Both studies received ethical approval prior to commencement. RESULTS: Study 1 Feasibility: 13 (59.1%) of 22 potentially eligible stroke survivors consented; aged 66 (median, interquartile range (IQR) 14); male (n = 9; 69%); 28 (IQR 34) months post-stroke. Of these, n = 10 (76.9%) completed PROMS pre-intervention; n = 6 (46.2%) post-intervention. Acceptability: Nine (69.2%) of the 13 participants attended ≥ 4 core intervention sessions. Aspects of screening and data collection were found to be burdensome. Study 2 Feasibility: SS n = 9 (41%) of 22 potentially eligible stroke survivors consented; aged 58 years (median; IQR 12); male (n = 4; 44.4%); 23 (IQR 34) months post-stroke. Of these, n = 5 (55.6%) completed PROMS pre-intervention; n = 5 (55.6%) post-intervention. Acceptability: Five (55.6%) of the 9 participants attended ≥ 4 core sessions. They found online screening and data collection processes straightforward.

The conceptualisation of cardiometabolic disease policy model in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Decision models are increasingly used to inform policy-making processes, and there is a need to improve their credibility. The estimation of health and economic outcomes generated from decision models is influenced by the development process itself. This paper aims to present the conceptual model development process of cardiometabolic disease (CMD) policy models in the UK setting. METHODS: This conceptual model followed the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research-Society of Medical Decision Making (ISPOR-SMDM) Modelling Good Research Practices Task Force-2. RESULTS: First, for the conceptualisation of the problem, the CMD disease staging, progression and current clinical guidelines were summarised, followed by a systematic review of published policy models. We critically appraised policy models such as cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. Key messages from the review emphasised the importance of understanding various determinants influencing model development, including risk factors, model structure, models' parameters, data utilisation, economic perspective, equality/equity consideration, transparency and validation process. Second, as a sequential process, is model conceptualisation, to determine which modelling types and their attributes best represent the defined problem. Expert opinions, including a clinician and experienced modellers, provided input on the state transition model to ensure the structure is clinically relevant. From this stage, the consideration and agreement to establish a disease state in a state transition model was discussed. CONCLUSION: This conceptual model serves as a basis for representing the systematic process for structuring a CMD policy model to enhance its transparency and credibility.

Heterogeneous biomedical entity representation learning for gene-disease association prediction.

Understanding the genetic basis of disease is a fundamental aspect of medical research, as genes are the classic units of heredity and play a crucial role in biological function. Identifying associations between genes and diseases is critical for diagnosis, prevention, prognosis, and drug development. Genes that encode proteins with similar sequences are often implicated in related diseases, as proteins causing identical or similar diseases tend to show limited variation in their sequences. Predicting gene-disease association (GDA) requires time-consuming and expensive experiments on a large number of potential candidate genes. Although methods have been proposed to predict associations between genes and diseases using traditional machine learning algorithms and graph neural networks, these approaches struggle to capture the deep semantic information within the genes and diseases and are dependent on training data. To alleviate this issue, we propose a novel GDA prediction model named FusionGDA, which utilizes a pre-training phase with a fusion module to enrich the gene and disease semantic representations encoded by pre-trained language models. Multi-modal representations are generated by the fusion module, which includes rich semantic information about two heterogeneous biomedical entities: protein sequences and disease descriptions. Subsequently, the pooling aggregation strategy is adopted to compress the dimensions of the multi-modal representation. In addition, FusionGDA employs a pre-training phase leveraging a contrastive learning loss to extract potential gene and disease features by training on a large public GDA dataset. To rigorously evaluate the effectiveness of the FusionGDA model, we conduct comprehensive experiments on five datasets and compare our proposed model with five competitive baseline models on the DisGeNet-Eval dataset. Notably, our case study further demonstrates the ability of FusionGDA to discover hidden associations effectively. The complete code and datasets of our experiments are available at https://github.com/ZhaohanM/FusionGDA.

Evidence for exercise-based interventions across 45 different long-term conditions: an overview of systematic reviews.

Background: Almost half of the global population face significant challenges from long-term conditions (LTCs) resulting in substantive health and socioeconomic burden. Exercise is a potentially key intervention in effective LTC management. Methods: In this overview of systematic reviews (SRs), we searched six electronic databases from January 2000 to October 2023 for SRs assessing health outcomes (mortality, hospitalisation, exercise capacity, disability, frailty, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), and physical activity) related to exercise-based interventions in adults (aged >18 years) diagnosed with one of 45 LTCs. Methodological quality was assessed using AMSTAR-2. International Prospective Resister of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) ID: CRD42022319214. Findings: Forty-two SRs plus three supplementary RCTs were included, providing 990 RCTs in 936,825 people across 39 LTCs. No evidence was identified for six LTCs. Predominant outcome domains were HRQoL (82% of SRs/RCTs) and exercise capacity (66%); whereas disability, mortality, physical activity, and hospitalisation were less frequently reported (≤25%). Evidence supporting exercise-based interventions was identified in 25 LTCs, was unclear for 13 LTCs, and for one LTC suggested no effect. No SRs considered multimorbidity in the delivery of exercise. Methodological quality varied: critically-low (33%), low (26%), moderate (26%), and high (12%). Interpretation: Exercise-based interventions improve HRQoL and exercise capacity across numerous LTCs. Key evidence gaps included limited mortality and hospitalisation data and consideration of multimorbidity impact on exercise-based interventions. Funding: This study was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR; Personalised Exercise-Rehabilitation FOR people with Multiple long-term conditions (multimorbidity)-NIHR202020).

Association of latent class analysis-derived multimorbidity clusters with adverse health outcomes in patients with multiple long-term conditions: comparative results across three UK cohorts.

Background: It remains unclear how to meaningfully classify people living with multimorbidity (multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs)), beyond counting the number of conditions. This paper aims to identify clusters of MLTCs in different age groups and associated risks of adverse health outcomes and service use. Methods: Latent class analysis was used to identify MLTCs clusters in different age groups in three cohorts: Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank (SAIL) (n = 1,825,289), UK Biobank (n = 502,363), and the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) (n = 49,186). Incidence rate ratios (IRR) for MLTC clusters were computed for: all-cause mortality, hospitalisations, and general practice (GP) use over 10 years, using <2 MLTCs as reference. Information on health outcomes and service use were extracted for a ten year follow up period (between 01st Jan 2010 and 31st Dec 2019 for UK Biobank and UKHLS, and between 01st Jan 2011 and 31st Dec 2020 for SAIL). Findings: Clustering MLTCs produced largely similar results across different age groups and cohorts. MLTC clusters had distinct associations with health outcomes and service use after accounting for LTC counts, in fully adjusted models. The largest associations with mortality, hospitalisations and GP use in SAIL were observed for the "Pain+" cluster in the age-group 18-36 years (mortality IRR = 4.47, hospitalisation IRR = 1.84; GP use IRR = 2.87) and the "Hypertension, Diabetes & Heart disease" cluster in the age-group 37-54 years (mortality IRR = 4.52, hospitalisation IRR = 1.53, GP use IRR = 2.36). In UK Biobank, the "Cancer, Thyroid disease & Rheumatoid arthritis" cluster in the age group 37-54 years had the largest association with mortality (IRR = 2.47). Cardiometabolic clusters across all age groups, pain/mental health clusters in younger groups, and cancer and pulmonary related clusters in older age groups had higher risk for all outcomes. In UKHLS, MLTC clusters were not significantly associated with higher risk of adverse outcomes, except for the hospitalisation in the age-group 18-36 years. Interpretation: Personalising care around MLTC clusters that have higher risk of adverse outcomes may have important implications for practice (in relation to secondary prevention), policy (with allocation of health care resources), and research (intervention development and targeting), for people living with MLTCs. Funding: This study was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR; Personalised Exercise-Rehabilitation FOR people with Multiple long-term conditions (multimorbidity)-NIHR202020).

Pharmacological treatments for alcohol dependence: Evidence on uptake, inequalities and comparative effectiveness from a UK population-based cohort.

INTRODUCTION: We assessed the prevalence of prescribing of certain medications for alcohol dependence and the extent of any inequalities in receiving prescriptions for individuals with such a diagnosis. Further, we compared the effectiveness of two of the most prescribed medications (acamprosate and disulfiram) for alcohol dependence and assessed whether there is inequality in prescribing either of them. METHODS: We used a nationwide dataset on prescriptions and hospitalisations in Scotland, UK (N = 19,748). We calculated the percentage of patients receiving alcohol dependence prescriptions after discharge, both overall and by socio-economic groups. Binary logistic regressions were used to assess the odds of receiving any alcohol-dependence prescription and the comparative odds of receiving acamprosate or disulfiram. Comparative effectiveness in avoiding future alcohol-related hospitalisations (N = 11,239) was assessed using Cox modelling with statistical adjustment for potential confounding. RESULTS: Upto 7% of hospitalised individuals for alcohol use disorder received prescriptions for alcohol dependence after being discharged. Least deprived socio-economic groups had relatively more individuals receiving prescriptions. Inequalities in prescribing for alcohol dependence existed, especially across sex and comorbidities: males had 12% (odds ratio [OR] 0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-0.96) and those with a history of mental health hospitalisations had 10% (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.82-0.98) lower odds of receiving prescriptions after an alcohol-related hospitalisation. Prescribing disulfiram was superior to prescribing acamprosate in preventing alcohol-related hospitalisations (hazard ratio ranged between 0.60 and 0.81 across analyses). Disulfiram was relatively less likely prescribed to those from more deprived areas. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Inequalities in prescribing for alcohol dependence exists in Scotland with lower prescribing to men and disulfiram prescribed more to those from least deprived areas.

Personalised Exercise-Rehabilitation FOR people with Multiple long-term conditions (PERFORM): protocol for a randomised feasibility trial.

INTRODUCTION: Personalised Exercise-Rehabilitation FOR people with Multiple long-term conditions (PERFORM) is a research programme that seeks to develop and evaluate a comprehensive exercise-based rehabilitation intervention designed for people with multimorbidity, the presence of multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs). This paper describes the protocol for a randomised trial to assess the feasibility and acceptability of the PERFORM intervention, study design and processes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A multicentre, parallel two-group randomised trial with individual 2:1 allocation to the PERFORM exercise-based intervention plus usual care (intervention) or usual care alone (control). The primary outcome of this feasibility trial will be to assess whether prespecified progression criteria (recruitment, retention, intervention adherence) are met to progress to the full randomised trial. The trial will be conducted across three UK sites and 60 people with MLTCs, defined as two or more LTCs, with at least one having evidence of the beneficial effect of exercise. The PERFORM intervention comprises an 8-week (twice a week for 6 weeks and once a week for 2 weeks) supervised rehabilitation programme of personalised exercise training and self-management education delivered by trained healthcare professionals followed by two maintenance sessions. Trial participants will be recruited over a 4.5-month period, and outcomes assessed at baseline (prerandomisation) and 3 months postrandomisation and include health-related quality of life, psychological well-being, symptom burden, frailty, exercise capacity, physical activity, sleep, cognition and serious adverse events. A mixed-methods process evaluation will assess acceptability, feasibility and fidelity of intervention delivery and feasibility of trial processes. An economic evaluation will assess the feasibility of data collection and estimate the costs of the PERFORM intervention. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial has been given favourable opinion by the West Midlands, Edgbaston Research Ethics Service (Ref: 23/WM/0057). Participants will be asked to give full, written consent to take part by trained researchers. Findings will be disseminated via journals, presentations and targeted communications to clinicians, commissioners, service users and patients and the public. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN68786622. PROTOCOL VERSION: 2.0 (16 May 2023).

An observational analysis of frailty in combination with loneliness or social isolation and their association with socioeconomic deprivation, hospitalisation and mortality among UK Biobank participants.

Frailty, social isolation, and loneliness have individually been associated with adverse health outcomes. This study examines how frailty in combination with loneliness or social isolation is associated with socioeconomic deprivation and with all-cause mortality and hospitalisation rate in a middle-aged and older population. Baseline data from 461,047 UK Biobank participants (aged 37-73) were used to assess frailty (frailty phenotype), social isolation, and loneliness. Weibull models assessed the association between frailty in combination with loneliness or social isolation and all-cause mortality adjusted for age/sex/smoking/alcohol/socioeconomic-status and number of long-term conditions. Negative binomial regression models assessed hospitalisation rate. Frailty prevalence was 3.38%, loneliness 4.75% and social isolation 9.04%. Frailty was present across all ages and increased with age. Loneliness and social isolation were more common in younger participants compared to older. Co-occurrence of frailty and loneliness or social isolation was most common in participants with high socioeconomic deprivation. Frailty was associated with increased mortality and hospitalisation regardless of social isolation/loneliness. Hazard ratios for mortality were 2.47 (2.27-2.69) with social isolation and 2.17 (2.05-2.29) without social isolation, 2.14 (1.92-2.38) with loneliness and 2.16 (2.05-2.27) without loneliness. Loneliness and social isolation were associated with mortality and hospitalisation in robust participants, but this was attenuated in the context of frailty. Frailty and loneliness/social isolation affect individuals across a wide age spectrum and disproportionately co-occur in areas of high deprivation. All were associated with adverse outcomes, but the association between loneliness and social isolation and adverse outcomes was attenuated in the context of frailty. Future interventions should target people living with frailty or loneliness/social isolation, regardless of age.

Sex differences in cancer outcomes across the range of eGFR.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: People with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have increased incidence and mortality from most cancer types. We hypothesised that odds of presenting with advanced cancer may vary according to differences in eGFR, that this could contribute to increased all-cause mortality and that sex differences may exist. METHODS: Data were from Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank, including people with de-novo cancer diagnosis (2011-2017) and two kidney function tests within two years prior to diagnosis to determine baseline eGFR (mL/min/1.73m2). Logistic regression models determined odds of presenting with advanced cancer by baseline eGFR. Cox proportional hazards models tested associations between baseline eGFRcr and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: eGFR < 30 was associated with higher odds of presenting with advanced cancer of prostate, breast and female genital organs, but not other cancer sites. Compared to eGFR > 75-90, eGFR < 30 was associated with greater hazards of all-cause mortality in both sexes, but the association was stronger in females (female: HR 1.71, 95%CI 1.56-1.88; male versus female comparison HR 0.88, 95%CI 0.78-0.90). CONCLUSIONS: Lower or higher eGFR was not associated with substantially higher odds of presenting with advanced cancer across most cancer sites, but was associated with reduced survival. A stronger assocation with all-cause mortality in females compared to males with eGFR < 30 is concerning and warrants further scrutiny.

Randomized controlled trial of molnupiravir SARS-CoV-2 viral and antibody response in at-risk adult outpatients.

Viral clearance, antibody response and the mutagenic effect of molnupiravir has not been elucidated in at-risk populations. Non-hospitalised participants within 5 days of SARS-CoV-2 symptoms randomised to receive molnupiravir (n = 253) or Usual Care (n = 324) were recruited to study viral and antibody dynamics and the effect of molnupiravir on viral whole genome sequence from 1437 viral genomes. Molnupiravir accelerates viral load decline, but virus is detectable by Day 5 in most cases. At Day 14 (9 days post-treatment), molnupiravir is associated with significantly higher viral persistence and significantly lower anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody titres compared to Usual Care. Serial sequencing reveals increased mutagenesis with molnupiravir treatment. Persistence of detectable viral RNA at Day 14 in the molnupiravir group is associated with higher transition mutations following treatment cessation. Viral viability at Day 14 is similar in both groups with post-molnupiravir treated samples cultured up to 9 days post cessation of treatment. The current 5-day molnupiravir course is too short. Longer courses should be tested to reduce the risk of potentially transmissible molnupiravir-mutated variants being generated. Trial registration: ISRCTN30448031.

General practice pharmacist-led antipsychotic physical health monitoring: a prospective intervention scoping study.

BACKGROUND: People with severe mental health illness die prematurely, often due to preventable cardiometabolic disease, which can be exacerbated by antipsychotic medicines that are effective for treating mental illness. Literature demonstrates that physical health monitoring, as recommended in guidelines, for people receiving antipsychotics is substandard. Therefore, we aimed to scope the potential of a general practice clinical pharmacist (GPCP)-led multidisciplinary intervention optimising adherence to cardiometabolic monitoring guidelines and delivering polypharmacy reviews. METHOD: Prospective intervention scoping study in three urban general practices; one usual care, two intervention. Patients 18-65 years old prescribed oral antipsychotics were identified from records, and invited for cardiometabolic monitoring and GPCP medication review, from January to December 2022. Interventions and onward referrals were recorded and collated. Anonymised pre- and post-review data were analysed, and actions were graded for clinical importance. RESULTS: In total 1.5% (210/14,159) of patients aged 18-65 years met inclusion criteria; usual care practice (n = 58); and intervention practices (n = 152). From baseline, the usual care practice achieved an absolute 7% increase in the cardiometabolic monitoring care bundle (glucose/glycosylated haemoglobin, lipids, blood pressure plus body mass index) versus 19-58% in the intervention practices. Two-thirds (92/152) of patients participated in medication reviews, requiring pharmacological and/or non-pharmacological clinical actions. The majority of actions were graded as moderate importance. Seven percentage of patients were identified as new pre-diabetic/diabetic and 6% were at high risk of cardiovascular disease requiring statin initiation. CONCLUSION: A pharmacist-led multidisciplinary general practice-based approach may be effective at optimising cardiometabolic monitoring; identifying and treating diabetic and cardiovascular risk factors.

People with severe mental illness die 15­20 years earlier than the general population, many due to preventable and/or treatable heart disease. While antipsychotic medicines are effective for treating mental illness they are associated with potential adverse effects; weight gain, increased blood pressure, blood sugar, and cholesterol. Therefore, guidelines advise regular physical health checks for people with severe mental illness, and those receiving antipsychotics, to reduce avoidable harms and optimise preventative treatments. However, routine monitoring is substandard. This study aimed to explore the potential of a general practice pharmacist-led intervention to optimise physical health monitoring and medication reviews, from January to December 2022. Three practices participated; one providing usual care, and two the pharmacist intervention. The usual care practice achieved a 7% increase in all monitoring parameters (weight, blood pressure, blood sugars plus cholesterol), whereas the pharmacist-led practices achieved a 19­58% increase in monitoring. Two in three patients (92/152) participated in a medication review with the pharmacists that addressed a range of mental and physical health issues. Of the 152 patients in the intervention practices 6% were identified as being at high risk of heart disease requiring preventative medicines, and 7% were identified as having new diabetes and/or pre-diabetes.

Cost-utility analysis of molnupiravir for high-risk, community-based adults with COVID-19: an economic evaluation of the PANORAMIC trial.

BACKGROUND: The cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir, an oral antiviral for early treatment of SARS-CoV-2, has not been established in vaccinated populations. AIM: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir relative to usual care alone among mainly vaccinated community-based people at higher risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19 over 6 months. DESIGN AND SETTING: An economic evaluation of the PANORAMIC trial in the UK. METHOD: A cost-utility analysis that adopted a UK NHS and personal social services perspective and a 6-month time horizon was performed using PANORAMIC trial data. Cost-effectiveness was expressed in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses assessed the impacts of uncertainty and heterogeneity. Threshold analysis explored the price for molnupiravir consistent with likely reimbursement. RESULTS: In the base-case analysis, molnupiravir had higher mean costs of £449 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 445 to 453) and higher mean QALYs of 0.0055 (95% CI = 0.0044 to 0.0067) than usual care (mean incremental cost per QALY of £81 190). Sensitivity and subgroup analyses showed similar results, except for those aged ≥75 years, with a 55% probability of being cost-effective at a £30 000 per QALY threshold. Molnupiravir would have to be priced around £147 per course to be cost-effective at a £15 000 per QALY threshold. CONCLUSION: At the current cost of £513 per course, molnupiravir is unlikely to be cost-effective relative to usual care over a 6-month time horizon among mainly vaccinated patients with COVID-19 at increased risk of adverse outcomes, except those aged ≥75 years.

Epidemiology of multimorbidity in low-income countries of sub-Saharan Africa: Findings from four population cohorts.

We investigated prevalence and demographic characteristics of adults living with multimorbidity (≥2 long-term conditions) in three low-income countries of sub-Saharan Africa, using secondary population-level data from four cohorts; Malawi (urban & rural), The Gambia (rural) and Uganda (rural). Information on; measured hypertension, diabetes and obesity was available in all cohorts; measured hypercholesterolaemia and HIV and self-reported asthma was available in two cohorts and clinically diagnosed epilepsy in one cohort. Analyses included calculation of age standardised multimorbidity prevalence and the cross-sectional associations of multimorbidity and demographic/lifestyle factors using regression modelling. Median participant age was 29 (Inter quartile range-IQR 22-38), 34 (IQR25-48), 32 (IQR 22-53) and 37 (IQR 26-51) in urban Malawi, rural Malawi, The Gambia, and Uganda, respectively. Age standardised multimorbidity prevalence was higher in urban and rural Malawi (22.5%;95% Confidence intervals-CI 21.6-23.4%) and 11.7%; 95%CI 11.1-12.3, respectively) than in The Gambia (2.9%; 95%CI 2.5-3.4%) and Uganda (8.2%; 95%CI 7.5-9%) cohorts. In multivariate models, females were at greater risk of multimorbidity than males in Malawi (Incidence rate ratio-IRR 1.97, 95% CI 1.79-2.16 urban and IRR 2.10; 95%CI 1.86-2.37 rural) and Uganda (IRR- 1.60, 95% CI 1.32-1.95), with no evidence of difference between the sexes in The Gambia (IRR 1.16, 95% CI 0.86-1.55). There was strong evidence of greater multimorbidity risk with increasing age in all populations (p-value <0.001). Higher educational attainment was associated with increased multimorbidity risk in Malawi (IRR 1.78; 95% CI 1.60-1.98 urban and IRR 2.37; 95% CI 1.74-3.23 rural) and Uganda (IRR 2.40, 95% CI 1.76-3.26), but not in The Gambia (IRR 1.48; 95% CI 0.56-3.87). Further research is needed to study multimorbidity epidemiology in sub-Saharan Africa with an emphasis on robust population-level data collection for a wide variety of long-term conditions and ensuring proportionate representation from men and women, and urban and rural areas.

Multimorbidity and Blood Pressure Control in Patients Attending Primary Care in Canada.

BACKGROUND: There has been conflicting evidence on the association between multimorbidity and blood pressure (BP) control. This study aimed to investigate this associations in people with hypertension attending primary care in Canada, and to assess whether individual long-term conditions are associated with BP control. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study in people with hypertension attending primary care in Toronto between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2019. Uncontrolled BP was defined as systolic BP ≥ 140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg. A list of 11 a priori selected chronic conditions was used to define multimorbidity. Multimorbidity was defined as having ≥1 long-term condition in addition to hypertension. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between multimorbidity (or individual long-term conditions) with uncontrolled BP. RESULTS: A total of 67 385 patients with hypertension were included. They had a mean age of 70, 53.1% were female, 80.6% had multimorbidity, and 35.7% had uncontrolled BP. Patients with multimorbidity had lower odds of uncontrolled BP than those without multimorbidity (adjusted OR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.68-0.76). Among the long-term conditions, diabetes (aOR = 0.73, 95%CI 0.70-0.77), heart failure (aOR = 0.81, 95%CI 0.73-0.91), ischemic heart disease (aOR = 0.74, 95%CI 0.69-0.79), schizophrenia (aOR = 0.79, 95%CI 0.65-0.97), depression/anxiety (aOR = 0.91, 95%CI 0.86-0.95), dementia (aOR = 0.87, 95%CI 0.80-0.95), and osteoarthritis (aOR = 0.89, 95%CI 0.85-0.93) were associated with a lower likelihood of uncontrolled BP. CONCLUSION: We found that multimorbidity was associated with better BP control. Several conditions were associated with better control, including diabetes, heart failure, ischemic heart disease, schizophrenia, depression/anxiety, dementia, and osteoarthritis.

Remote exercise testing in pulmonary hypertension (PHRET).

Remote exercise tests for patients with pulmonary hypertension (PH) would improve the telemedicine strategies in this disease. The PHRET study assessed the validity and feasibility of four remote exercise tests performed by PH patients at home. Participants undergoing diagnostic assessment for PH were included. At baseline, patients completed a 6MWT followed by a range of study tests including a Timed Up and Go (TUG) test, a Sit-to-Stand (STS), a Step Test (ST), and a tele-6MWT (T6MWT) performed outside using a GPS-enabled smartphone. Patients performed these tests at home following discharge and at first follow-up. Analysis focused on comparing the results of study tests to the standard 6MWT. The discontinuation rate was 15%. Ninety-seven percent of patients were able to complete a TUG, 92% a STS, 73% a ST, and 49% a T6MWT. At baseline, correlation between the standard 6MWT and study tests, respectively, was T6MWT 0.93, ST 0.78, STS 0.71, and TUG -0.76 (p < 0.001). Direction of change in the study test agreed with the standard 6MWT in 68% of the follow-up ST, 68% of the STS, 71% of the TUG, and 79% of the T6MWT. Patients were able to complete the tests at home, there were no adverse incidents and ≥92% of patients were happy to continue performing home tests. Remote exercise testing is feasible. The T6MWT was a valid remote measure of exercise capacity, but could only be performed by a limited number of patients. The high discontinuation rate may impact the utility of remote tests.

Social connection and mortality in UK Biobank: a prospective cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Components of social connection are associated with mortality, but research examining their independent and combined effects in the same dataset is lacking. This study aimed to examine the independent and combined associations between functional and structural components of social connection and mortality. METHODS: Analysis of 458,146 participants with full data from the UK Biobank cohort linked to mortality registers. Social connection was assessed using two functional (frequency of ability to confide in someone close and often feeling lonely) and three structural (frequency of friends/family visits, weekly group activities, and living alone) component measures. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the associations with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. RESULTS: Over a median of 12.6 years (IQR 11.9-13.3) follow-up, 33,135 (7.2%) participants died, including 5112 (1.1%) CVD deaths. All social connection measures were independently associated with both outcomes. Friends/family visit frequencies < monthly were associated with a higher risk of mortality indicating a threshold effect. There were interactions between living alone and friends/family visits and between living alone and weekly group activity. For example, compared with daily friends/family visits-not living alone, there was higher all-cause mortality for daily visits-living alone (HR 1.19 [95% CI 1.12-1.26]), for never having visits-not living alone (1.33 [1.22-1.46]), and for never having visits-living alone (1.77 [1.61-1.95]). Never having friends/family visits whilst living alone potentially counteracted benefits from other components as mortality risks were highest for those reporting both never having visits and living alone regardless of weekly group activity or functional components. When all measures were combined into overall functional and structural components, there was an interaction between components: compared with participants defined as not isolated by both components, those considered isolated by both components had higher CVD mortality (HR 1.63 [1.51-1.76]) than each component alone (functional isolation 1.17 [1.06-1.29]; structural isolation 1.27 [1.18-1.36]). CONCLUSIONS: This work suggests (1) a potential threshold effect for friends/family visits, (2) that those who live alone with additional concurrent markers of structural isolation may represent a high-risk population, (3) that beneficial associations for some types of social connection might not be felt when other types of social connection are absent, and (4) considering both functional and structural components of social connection may help to identify the most isolated in society.

Personalised lung cancer risk stratification and lung cancer screening: do general practice electronic medical records have a role?

BACKGROUND: In the United Kingdom (UK), cancer screening invitations are based on general practice (GP) registrations. We hypothesize that GP electronic medical records (EMR) can be utilised to calculate a lung cancer risk score with good accuracy/clinical utility. METHODS: The development cohort was Secure Anonymised Information Linkage-SAIL (2.3 million GP EMR) and the validation cohort was UK Biobank-UKB (N = 211,597 with GP-EMR availability). Fast backward method was applied for variable selection and area under the curve (AUC) evaluated discrimination. RESULTS: Age 55-75 were included (SAIL: N = 574,196; UKB: N = 137,918). Six-year lung cancer incidence was 1.1% (6430) in SAIL and 0.48% (656) in UKB. The final model included 17/56 variables in SAIL for the EMR-derived score: age, sex, socioeconomic status, smoking status, family history, body mass index (BMI), BMI:smoking interaction, alcohol misuse, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, coronary heart disease, dementia, hypertension, painful condition, stroke, peripheral vascular disease and history of previous cancer and previous pneumonia. The GP-EMR-derived score had AUC of 80.4% in SAIL and 74.4% in UKB and outperformed ever-smoked criteria (currently the first step in UK lung cancer screening pilots). DISCUSSION: A GP-EMR-derived score may have a role in UK lung cancer screening by accurately targeting high-risk individuals without requiring patient contact.

Understanding covid-19 outcomes among people with intellectual disabilities in England.

BACKGROUND: Evidence from the UK from the early stages of the covid-19 pandemic showed that people with Intellectual Disabilities (ID) had higher rates of covid-19 mortality than people without ID. However, estimates of the magnitude of risk vary widely; different studies used different time periods; and only early stages of the pandemic have been analysed. Existing analyses of risk factors have also been limited. The objective of this study was to investigate covid-19 mortality rates, hospitalisation rates, and risk factors in people with ID in England up to the end of 2021. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of all people with a laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection or death involving covid-19. Datasets covering primary care, secondary care, covid-19 tests and vaccinations, prescriptions, and deaths were linked at individual level. RESULTS: Covid-19 carries a disproportionately higher risk of death for people with ID, above their already higher risk of dying from other causes, in comparison to those without ID. Around 2,000 people with ID had a death involving covid-19 in England up to the end of 2021; approximately 1 in 180. The covid-19 standardized mortality ratio was 5.6 [95% CI 5.4, 5.9]. People with ID were also more likely to be hospitalised for covid-19 than people without ID. The main determinants of severe covid-19 outcomes (deaths and/or hospitalisations) in both populations were age, multimorbidity and vaccination status. The key factor responsible for the higher risk of severe covid-19 in the ID population was a much higher prevalence of multimorbidity in this population. AstraZeneca vaccine was slightly less effective in preventing severe covid-19 outcomes among people with ID than among people without ID. CONCLUSIONS: People with ID should be considered a priority group in future pandemics, such as shielding and vaccinations.

Platform adaptive trial of novel antivirals for early treatment of COVID-19 In the community (PANORAMIC): protocol for a randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial of community novel antiviral treatment of COVID-19 in people at increased risk of more severe disease.

INTRODUCTION: There is an urgent need to determine the safety, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of novel antiviral treatments for COVID-19 in vaccinated patients in the community at increased risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: PANORAMIC is a UK-wide, open-label, prospective, adaptive, multiarm platform, randomised clinical trial that evaluates antiviral treatments for COVID-19 in the community. A master protocol governs the addition of new antiviral treatments as they become available, and the introduction and cessation of existing interventions via interim analyses. The first two interventions to be evaluated are molnupiravir (Lagevrio) and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid). ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: community-dwelling within 5 days of onset of symptomatic COVID-19 (confirmed by PCR or lateral flow test), and either (1) aged 50 years and over, or (2) aged 18-49 years with qualifying comorbidities. Registration occurs via the trial website and by telephone. Recruitment occurs remotely through the central trial team, or in person through clinical sites. Participants are randomised to receive either usual care or a trial drug plus usual care. Outcomes are collected via a participant-completed daily electronic symptom diary for 28 days post randomisation. Participants and/or their Trial Partner are contacted by the research team after days 7, 14 and 28 if the diary is not completed, or if the participant is unable to access the diary. The primary efficacy endpoint is all-cause, non-elective hospitalisation and/or death within 28 days of randomisation. Multiple prespecified interim analyses allow interventions to be stopped for futility or superiority based on prespecified decision criteria. A prospective economic evaluation is embedded within the trial. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval granted by South Central-Berkshire REC number: 21/SC/0393; IRAS project ID: 1004274. Results will be presented to policymakers and at conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN30448031; EudraCT number: 2021-005748-31.