Investigation of the impact of the NICE guidelines regarding antibiotic prophylaxis during invasive dental procedures on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England: an electronic health records study.

BACKGROUND: Infective endocarditis is an uncommon but serious infection, where evidence for giving antibiotic prophylaxis before invasive dental procedures is inconclusive. In England, antibiotic prophylaxis was offered routinely to patients at risk of infective endocarditis until March 2008, when new guidelines aimed at reducing unnecessary antibiotic use were issued. We investigated whether changes in infective endocarditis incidence could be detected using electronic health records, assessing the impact of inclusion criteria/statistical model choice on inferences about the timing/type of any change. METHODS: Using national data from Hospital Episode Statistics covering 1998-2017, we modelled trends in infective endocarditis incidence using three different sets of inclusion criteria plus a range of regression models, identifying the most likely date for a change in trends if evidence for one existed. We also modelled trends in the proportions of different organism groups identified during infection episodes, using secondary diagnosis codes and data from national laboratory records. Lastly, we applied non-parametric local smoothing to visually inspect any changes in trend around the guideline change date. RESULTS: Infective endocarditis incidence increased markedly over the study (22.2-41.3 per million population in 1998 to 42.0-67.7 in 2017 depending on inclusion criteria). The most likely dates for a change in incidence trends ranged from September 2001 (uncertainty interval August 2000-May 2003) to May 2015 (March 1999-January 2016), depending on inclusion criteria and statistical model used. For the proportion of infective endocarditis cases associated with streptococci, the most likely change points ranged from October 2008 (March 2006-April 2010) to August 2015 (September 2013-November 2015), with those associated with oral streptococci decreasing in proportion after the change point. Smoothed trends showed no notable changes in trend around the guideline date. CONCLUSIONS: Infective endocarditis incidence has increased rapidly in England, though we did not detect any change in trends directly following the updated guidelines for antibiotic prophylaxis, either overall or in cases associated with oral streptococci. Estimates of when changes occurred were sensitive to inclusion criteria and statistical model choice, demonstrating the need for caution in interpreting single models when using large datasets. More research is needed to explore the factors behind this increase.

Epidemiology of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales in England, May 2015-March 2019: national enhanced surveillance findings and approach.

BACKGROUND: In response to increasing numbers of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) in England, Public Health England (PHE) launched an electronic reporting system (ERS) for the enhanced surveillance of carbapenemase-producing Gram-negative bacteria. Our study aimed to describe system engagement and the epidemiology of CPE in England. METHODS: Engagement with the ERS was assessed by calculating the proportion of referrals submitted this system. ERS data were extracted and cases defined as patients with CPE isolated from a screening or clinical specimen in England between 1st May 2015 to 31st March 2019. Descriptive summary statistics for each variable were prepared. RESULTS: The ERS processed 12,656 suspected CPE reports. Uptake of the ERS by local microbiology laboratories varied, with approximately 70% of referrals made via the ERS by April 2016; this steadily decreased after March 2018. Six-thousand eight-hundred and fifty-seven cases were included in the analysis. Most cases were from colonised patients (80.6%) rather than infected, and the majority were inpatients in acute hospital settings (87.3%). Carbapenemases were most frequently detected in Klebsiella pneumoniae (39.1%) and Escherichia coli (30.3%). The most frequently identified carbapenemase families were OXA-48-like (45.1%) and KPC (26.4%). Enhanced data variables were poorly completed. CONCLUSIONS: The ERS has provided some insight into the epidemiology of CPE in England. An increasing number of routine diagnostic laboratories have introduced methods to routinely identify acquired carbapenemases and PHE has modified its approach to ensure robust surveillance, which is an essential aspect of an effective response to prevent and control the spread of CPE.

'Caveat emptor': the cautionary tale of endocarditis and the potential pitfalls of clinical coding data-an electronic health records study.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic codes from electronic health records are widely used to assess patterns of disease. Infective endocarditis is an uncommon but serious infection, with objective diagnostic criteria. Electronic health records have been used to explore the impact of changing guidance on antibiotic prophylaxis for dental procedures on incidence, but limited data on the accuracy of the diagnostic codes exists. Endocarditis was used as a clinically relevant case study to investigate the relationship between clinical cases and diagnostic codes, to understand discrepancies and to improve design of future studies. METHODS: Electronic health record data from two UK tertiary care centres were linked with data from a prospectively collected clinical endocarditis service database (Leeds Teaching Hospital) or retrospective clinical audit and microbiology laboratory blood culture results (Oxford University Hospitals Trust). The relationship between diagnostic codes for endocarditis and confirmed clinical cases according to the objective Duke criteria was assessed, and impact on estimations of disease incidence and trends. RESULTS: In Leeds 2006-2016, 738/1681(44%) admissions containing any endocarditis code represented a definite/possible case, whilst 263/1001(24%) definite/possible endocarditis cases had no endocarditis code assigned. In Oxford 2010-2016, 307/552(56%) reviewed endocarditis-coded admissions represented a clinical case. Diagnostic codes used by most endocarditis studies had good positive predictive value (PPV) but low sensitivity (e.g. I33-primary 82% and 43% respectively); one (I38-secondary) had PPV under 6%. Estimating endocarditis incidence using raw admission data overestimated incidence trends twofold. Removing records with non-specific codes, very short stays and readmissions improved predictive ability. Estimating incidence of streptococcal endocarditis using secondary codes also overestimated increases in incidence over time. Reasons for discrepancies included changes in coding behaviour over time, and coding guidance allowing assignment of a code mentioning 'endocarditis' where endocarditis was never mentioned in the clinical notes. CONCLUSIONS: Commonly used diagnostic codes in studies of endocarditis had good predictive ability. Other apparently plausible codes were poorly predictive. Use of diagnostic codes without examining sensitivity and predictive ability can give inaccurate estimations of incidence and trends. Similar considerations may apply to other diseases. Health record studies require validation of diagnostic codes and careful data curation to minimise risk of serious errors.

Strong correlation between the rates of intrinsically antibiotic-resistant species and the rates of acquired resistance in Gram-negative species causing bacteraemia, EU/EEA, 2016.

BackgroundAntibiotic resistance, either intrinsic or acquired, is a major obstacle for treating bacterial infections.AimOur objective was to compare the country-specific species distribution of the four Gram-negative species Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Acinetobacter species and the proportions of selected acquired resistance traits within these species.MethodWe used data reported for 2016 to the European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net) by 30 countries in the European Union and European Economic Area.ResultsThe country-specific species distribution varied considerably. While E. coli accounted for 31.9% to 81.0% (median: 69.0%) of all reported isolates, the two most common intrinsically resistant species P. aeruginosa and Acinetobacter spp. combined (PSEACI) accounted for 5.5% to 39.2% of isolates (median: 10.1%). Similarly, large national differences were noted for the percentages of acquired non-susceptibility to third-generation cephalosporins, carbapenems and fluoroquinolones. There was a strong positive rank correlation between the country-specific percentages of PSEACI and the percentages of non-susceptibility to the above antibiotics in all four species (rho > 0.75 for 10 of the 11 pairs of variables tested).ConclusionCountries with the highest proportion of P. aeruginosa and Acinetobacter spp. were also those where the rates of acquired non-susceptibility in all four studied species were highest. The differences are probably related to national differences in antibiotic consumption and infection prevention and control routines.

Using hospital network-based surveillance for antimicrobial resistance as a more robust alternative to self-reporting.

Hospital performance is often measured using self-reported statistics, such as the incidence of hospital-transmitted micro-organisms or those exhibiting antimicrobial resistance (AMR), encouraging hospitals with high levels to improve their performance. However, hospitals that increase screening efforts will appear to have a higher incidence and perform poorly, undermining comparison between hospitals and disincentivising testing, thus hampering infection control. We propose a surveillance system in which hospitals test patients previously discharged from other hospitals and report observed cases. Using English National Health Service (NHS) Hospital Episode Statistics data, we analysed patient movements across England and assessed the number of hospitals required to participate in such a reporting scheme to deliver robust estimates of incidence. With over 1.2 million admissions to English hospitals previously discharged from other hospitals annually, even when only a fraction of hospitals (41/155) participate (each screening at least 1000 of these admissions), the proposed surveillance system can estimate incidence across all hospitals. By reporting on other hospitals, the reporting of incidence is separated from the task of improving own performance. Therefore the incentives for increasing performance can be aligned to increase (rather than decrease) screening efforts, thus delivering both more comparable figures on the AMR problems across hospitals and improving infection control efforts.

Antibiotic management of urinary tract infection in elderly patients in primary care and its association with bloodstream infections and all cause mortality: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between antibiotic treatment for urinary tract infection (UTI) and severe adverse outcomes in elderly patients in primary care. DESIGN: Retrospective population based cohort study. SETTING: Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2007-15) primary care records linked to hospital episode statistics and death records in England. PARTICIPANTS: 157 264 adults aged 65 years or older presenting to a general practitioner with at least one diagnosis of suspected or confirmed lower UTI from November 2007 to May 2015. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Bloodstream infection, hospital admission, and all cause mortality within 60 days after the index UTI diagnosis. RESULTS: Among 312 896 UTI episodes (157 264 unique patients), 7.2% (n=22 534) did not have a record of antibiotics being prescribed and 6.2% (n=19 292) showed a delay in antibiotic prescribing. 1539 episodes of bloodstream infection (0.5%) were recorded within 60 days after the initial UTI. The rate of bloodstream infection was significantly higher among those patients not prescribed an antibiotic (2.9%; n=647) and those recorded as revisiting the general practitioner within seven days of the initial consultation for an antibiotic prescription compared with those given a prescription for an antibiotic at the initial consultation (2.2% v 0.2%; P=0.001). After adjustment for covariates, patients were significantly more likely to experience a bloodstream infection in the deferred antibiotics group (adjusted odds ratio 7.12, 95% confidence interval 6.22 to 8.14) and no antibiotics group (8.08, 7.12 to 9.16) compared with the immediate antibiotics group. The number needed to harm (NNH) for occurrence of bloodstream infection was lower (greater risk) for the no antibiotics group (NNH=37) than for the deferred antibiotics group (NNH=51) compared with the immediate antibiotics group. The rate of hospital admissions was about double among cases with no antibiotics (27.0%) and deferred antibiotics (26.8%) compared with those prescribed immediate antibiotics (14.8%; P=0.001). The risk of all cause mortality was significantly higher with deferred antibiotics and no antibiotics than with immediate antibiotics at any time during the 60 days follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.27 and 2.18, 2.04 to 2.33, respectively). Men older than 85 years were particularly at risk for both bloodstream infection and 60 day all cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In elderly patients with a diagnosis of UTI in primary care, no antibiotics and deferred antibiotics were associated with a significant increase in bloodstream infection and all cause mortality compared with immediate antibiotics. In the context of an increase of Escherichia coli bloodstream infections in England, early initiation of recommended first line antibiotics for UTI in the older population is advocated.

Epidemiology and Outcomes of Nontyphoidal Salmonella Bacteremias from England, 2004 to 2015.

Nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) bacteremia causes hospitalization and high morbidity and mortality. We linked Gastrointestinal Bacteria Reference Unit (GBRU) data to the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data set to study the trends and outcomes of NTS bacteremias in England between 2004 and 2015. All confirmed NTS isolates from blood from England submitted to GBRU between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2015 were deterministically linked to HES records. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR), proportions, and confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to describe differences in age, sex, antibiotic resistance patterns, and serotypes over time. Males, neonates, and adults above 65 years were more likely to have NTS bacteremia (AOR, 1.54 [95% CI, 1.46 to 1.67]; 2.57 [95% CI, 1.43 to 4.60]; and 3.56 [95% CI, 3.25 to 3.90], respectively). Proportions of bacteremia increased from 1.41% in 2004 to 2.67% in 2015. Thirty-four percent of all blood isolates were resistant to a first-line antibiotic, and 1,397 (56%) blood isolates were linked to an HES record. Of the patients with NTS bacteremia, 969 (69%) had a cardiovascular condition and 155 (12%) patients died, out of which 120 (77%) patients were age 65 years and above. NTS bacteremia mainly affects older people with comorbidities placing them at increased risk of prolonged hospital stay and death. Resistance of invasive NTS to first-line antimicrobial agents appeared to be stable in England, but the emergence of resistance to last-resort antibiotics, such as colistin, requires careful monitoring.

The Impact of a National Antimicrobial Stewardship Program on Antibiotic Prescribing in Primary Care: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Quality Premium was introduced in 2015 to financially reward local commissioners of healthcare in England for targeted reductions in antibiotic prescribing in primary care. METHODS: We used a national antibiotic prescribing dataset from April 2013 until February 2017 to examine the number of antibiotic items prescribed, the total number of antibiotic items prescribed per STAR-PU (specific therapeutic group age/sex-related prescribing units), the number of broad-spectrum antibiotic items prescribed, and broad-spectrum antibiotic items prescribed, expressed as a percentage of the total number of antibiotic items. To evaluate the impact of the Quality Premium on antibiotic prescribing, we used a segmented regression analysis of interrupted time series data. RESULTS: During the study period, over 140 million antibiotic items were prescribed in primary care. Following the introduction of the Quality Premium, antibiotic items prescribed decreased by 8.2%, representing 5933563 fewer antibiotic items prescribed during the 23 post-intervention months, as compared with the expected numbers based on the trend in the pre-intervention period. After adjusting for the age and sex distribution in the population, the segmented regression model also showed a significant relative decrease in antibiotic items prescribed per STAR-PU. A similar effect was found for broad-spectrum antibiotics (comprising 10.1% of total antibiotic prescribing), with an 18.9% reduction in prescribing. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that the introduction of financial incentives for local commissioners of healthcare to improve the quality of prescribing was associated with a significant reduction in both total and broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing in primary care in England.

An Assessment of Potential Unintended Consequences Following a National Antimicrobial Stewardship Program in England: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The "Quality Premium" (QP) introduced in England in 2015 aimed to financially reward local healthcare commissioners for targeted reductions in primary care antibiotic prescribing. We aimed to evaluate possible unintended clinical outcomes related to this QP. METHODS: Using Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episode Statistics datasets, we examined general practitioner (GP) consultations (visits) and emergency hospital admissions related to a series of predefined conditions of unintended consequences of reduced prescribing. Monthly age- and sex-standardized rates were calculated using a direct method of standardization. We used segmented regression analysis of interrupted time series to evaluate the impact of the QP on seasonally adjusted outcome rates. RESULTS: We identified 27334 GP consultations and >5 million emergency hospital admissions with predefined conditions. There was no evidence that the QP was associated with changes in GP consultation and hospital admission rates for the selected conditions combined. However, when each condition was considered separately, a significant increase in hospital admission rates was noted for quinsy, and significant decreases were seen for hospital-acquired pneumonia, scarlet fever, pyelonephritis, and complicated urinary tract conditions. A significant decrease in GP consultation rates was estimated for empyema and scarlet fever. No significant changes were observed for other conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study show that overall there was no significant association between the intervention and unintended clinical consequences, with the exception of a few specific conditions, most of which could be explained through other parallel policy changes or should be interpreted with caution due to small numbers.

Using linked electronic health records to report healthcare-associated infections.

BACKGROUND: Reporting of strategic healthcare-associated infections (HCAIs) to Public Health England is mandatory for all acute hospital trusts in England, via a web-based HCAI Data Capture System (HCAI-DCS). AIM: Investigate the feasibility of automating the current, manual, HCAI reporting using linked electronic health records (linked-EHR), and assess its level of accuracy. METHODS: All data previously submitted through the HCAI-DCS by the Oxford University Hospitals infection control (IC) team for methicillin-resistant and methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA, MSSA), Clostridium difficile, and Escherichia coli, through March 2017 were downloaded and compared to outputs created from linked-EHR, with detailed comparisons between 2013-2017. FINDINGS: Total MRSA, MSSA, E. coli and C. difficile cases entered by the IC team vs linked-EHR were 428 vs 432, 795 vs 816, 2454 vs 2450 and 3365 vs 3393 respectively. From 2013-2017, most discrepancies (32/37 (86%)) were likely due to IC recording errors. Patient and specimen identifiers were completed for >98% of cases by both methods, with very high agreement (>97%). Fields relating to the patient at the time the specimen was taken were complete to a similarly high level (>99% IC, >97% linked-EHR), and agreement was fairly good (>80%) except for the main and treatment specialties (57% and 54% respectively) and the patient category (55%). Optional, organism-specific data-fields were less complete, by both methods. Where comparisons were possible, agreement was reasonably high (mostly 70-90%). CONCLUSION: Basic factual information, such as demographic data, is almost-certainly better automated, and many other data fields can potentially be populated successfully from linked-EHR. Manual data collection is time-consuming and inefficient; automated electronic data collection would leave healthcare professionals free to focus on clinical rather than administrative work.

Quantifying where human acquisition of antibiotic resistance occurs: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB) are selected by the use of antibiotics. The rational design of interventions to reduce levels of antibiotic resistance requires a greater understanding of how and where ARB are acquired. Our aim was to determine whether acquisition of ARB occurs more often in the community or hospital setting. METHODS: We used a mathematical model of the natural history of ARB to estimate how many ARB were acquired in each of these two environments, as well as to determine key parameters for further investigation. To do this, we explored a range of realistic parameter combinations and considered a case study of parameters for an important subset of resistant strains in England. RESULTS: If we consider all people with ARB in the total population (community and hospital), the majority, under most clinically derived parameter combinations, acquired their resistance in the community, despite higher levels of antibiotic use and transmission of ARB in the hospital. However, if we focus on just the hospital population, under most parameter combinations a greater proportion of this population acquired ARB in the hospital. CONCLUSIONS: It is likely that the majority of ARB are being acquired in the community, suggesting that efforts to reduce overall ARB carriage should focus on reducing antibiotic usage and transmission in the community setting. However, our framework highlights the need for better pathogen-specific data on antibiotic exposure, ARB clearance and transmission parameters, as well as the link between carriage of ARB and health impact. This is important to determine whether interventions should target total ARB carriage or hospital-acquired ARB carriage, as the latter often dominated in hospital populations.

Exploring the relationship between primary care antibiotic prescribing for urinary tract infections, Escherichia coli bacteraemia incidence and antimicrobial resistance: an ecological study.

This study quantified the association between antibiotic prescribing for urinary tract infections (UTIs) and the incidence/antimicrobial susceptibility of UTI-related Escherichia coli bacteraemia in adult women in England. A national ecological study was conducted with data aggregated at GP practice level. The study population was adult female patients (>18 years) with reported UTI-related E. coli bacteraemia in England (2012-2014). Reports of bacteraemia from the national mandatory surveillance scheme were linked with E. coli blood culture susceptibility data (where available) and the correlation with primary care exposure to trimethoprim and nitrofurantoin was quantified using longitudinal multilevel models. The study included 19 874 patients from 5916 practices. The overall incidence of UTI-related E. coli bacteraemia in the study group did not change significantly (1.3% increase, 95% CI 0.1-2.7%; P = 0.074). However, after adjusting for practice characteristics, UTI-related E. coli bacteraemia incidence increased by 3.0% (P < 0.001) and 1.5% (P < 0.01) with each increasing quintile in trimethoprim and nitrofurantoin prescribing, respectively. The incidence of trimethoprim-resistant bacteraemia increased by 4.5% (P = 0.032) with each increasing quintile in trimethoprim prescribing and was not associated with nitrofurantoin prescribing. This study demonstrated an association between GP prescribing for UTIs and UTI-related E. coli bacteraemia incidence at the practice level and showed that higher prescribing of trimethoprim is associated with higher incidence of trimethoprim-resistant bacteraemia. Evidence is provided of the importance of prudent antibiotic prescribing in primary care to prevent the development of antibiotic resistance, placing patients at risk of subsequent severe infections.

Trends over time in Escherichia coli bloodstream infections, urinary tract infections, and antibiotic susceptibilities in Oxfordshire, UK, 1998-2016: a study of electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Escherichia coli bloodstream infections are increasing in the UK and internationally. The evidence base to guide interventions against this major public health concern is small. We aimed to investigate possible drivers of changes in the incidence of E coli bloodstream infection and antibiotic susceptibilities in Oxfordshire, UK, over the past two decades, while stratifying for time since hospital exposure. METHODS: In this observational study, we used all available data on E coli bloodstream infections and E coli urinary tract infections (UTIs) from one UK region (Oxfordshire) using anonymised linked microbiological data and hospital electronic health records from the Infections in Oxfordshire Research Database (IORD). We estimated the incidence of infections across a two decade period and the annual incidence rate ratio (aIRR) in 2016. We modelled the data using negative binomial regression on the basis of microbiological, clinical, and health-care-exposure risk factors. We investigated infection severity, 30-day all-cause mortality, and community and hospital amoxicillin plus clavulanic acid (co-amoxiclav) use to estimate changes in bacterial virulence and the effect of antimicrobial resistance on incidence. FINDINGS: From Jan 1, 1998, to Dec 31, 2016, 5706 E coli bloodstream infections occurred in 5215 patients, and 228 376 E coli UTIs occurred in 137 075 patients. 1365 (24%) E coli bloodstream infections were nosocomial (onset >48 h after hospital admission), 1132 (20%) were quasi-nosocomial (≤30 days after discharge), 1346 (24%) were quasi-community (31-365 days after discharge), and 1863 (33%) were community (>365 days after hospital discharge). The overall incidence increased year on year (aIRR 1·06, 95% CI 1·05-1·06). In 2016, 212 (41%) of 515 E coli bloodstream infections and 3921 (28%) of 13 792 E coli UTIs were co-amoxiclav resistant. Increases in E coli bloodstream infections were driven by increases in community (aIRR 1·10, 95% CI 1·07-1·13; p<0·0001) and quasi-community (aIRR 1·08, 1·07-1·10; p<0·0001) cases. 30-day mortality associated with E coli bloodstream infection decreased over time in the nosocomial (adjusted rate ratio [RR] 0·98, 95% CI 0·96-1·00; p=0·03) group, and remained stable in the quasi-nosocomial (adjusted RR 0·98, 0·95-1·00; p=0·06), quasi-community (adjusted RR 0·99, 0·96-1·01; p=0·32), and community (adjusted RR 0·99, 0·96-1·01; p=0·21) groups. Mortality was, however, substantial at 14-25% across all hospital-exposure groups. Co-amoxiclav-resistant E coli bloodstream infections increased in all groups across the study period (by 11-18% per year, significantly faster than co-amoxiclav-susceptible E coli bloodstream infections; pheterogeneity<0·0001), as did co-amoxiclav-resistant E coli UTIs (by 14-29% per year; pheterogeneity<0·0001). Previous year co-amoxiclav use in primary-care facilities was associated with increased subsequent year community co-amoxiclav-resistant E coli UTIs (p=0·003). INTERPRETATION: Increases in E coli bloodstream infections in Oxfordshire are primarily community associated, with substantial co-amoxiclav resistance; nevertheless, we found little or no change in mortality. Focusing interventions on primary care facilities, particularly those with high co-amoxiclav use, could be effective in reducing the incidence of co-amoxiclav-resistant E coli bloodstream infections, in this region and more generally. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

Age-related decline in antibiotic prescribing for uncomplicated respiratory tract infections in primary care in England following the introduction of a national financial incentive (the Quality Premium) for health commissioners to reduce use of antibiotics in the community: an interrupted time series analysis.

Objectives: To assess the impact of the 2015/16 NHS England Quality Premium (which provided a financial incentive for Clinical Commissioning Groups to reduce antibiotic prescribing in primary care) on antibiotic prescribing by General Practitioners (GPs) for respiratory tract infections (RTIs). Methods: Interrupted time series analysis using monthly patient-level consultation and prescribing data obtained from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) between April 2011 and March 2017. The study population comprised patients consulting a GP who were diagnosed with an RTI. We assessed the rate of antibiotic prescribing in patients (both aggregate and stratified by age) with a recorded diagnosis of uncomplicated RTI, before and after the implementation of the Quality Premium. Results: Prescribing rates decreased over the 6 year study period, with evident seasonality. Notably, there was a 3% drop in the rate of antibiotic prescribing (equating to 14.65 prescriptions per 1000 RTI consultations) (P < 0.05) in April 2015, coinciding with the introduction of the Quality Premium. This reduction was sustained, such that after 2 years there was a 3% decrease in prescribing relative to that expected had the pre-intervention trend continued. There was also a concurrent 2% relative reduction in the rate of broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing. Antibiotic prescribing for RTIs diagnosed in children showed the greatest decline with a 6% relative change 2 years after the intervention. Of the RTI indications studied, the greatest reductions in antibiotic prescribing were seen for patients with sore throats. Conclusions: Community prescribing of antibiotics for RTIs significantly decreased following the introduction of the Quality Premium, with the greatest reduction seen in younger patients.

Clinical Characteristics and Risk Factors for Poor Outcome in Infants Less Than 90 Days of Age With Bacterial Meningitis in the United Kingdom and Ireland.

BACKGROUND: To describe the clinical characteristics and risk factors associated with poor outcome in infants <90 days of age with bacterial meningitis. METHODS: Prospective, enhanced, national population-based active surveillance for infants <90 days of age with bacterial meningitis in the United Kingdom and Ireland between July 2010 and July 2011. Infants were identified through the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit, laboratory surveillance and meningitis charities. RESULTS: Clinical details was available for 263 of 298 (88%) infants where a bacterium was identified, 184 (70%) were born at term. Fever was reported in 143 (54%), seizures in 73 (28%), bulging fontanelle in 58 (22%), coma in 15 (6%) and neck stiffness in 7 (3%). Twenty-three (9%) died and 56/240 (23%) of the survivors had serious central nervous system complications at discharge. Temperature instability [odds ratio (OR), 2.99; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.21-7.41], seizures (OR, 7.06; 95% CI: 2.80-17.81), cerebrospinal fluid protein greater than the median concentration (2275 mg/dL; OR, 2.62; 95% CI: 1.13-6.10) and pneumococcal meningitis (OR, 4.83; 95% CI: 1.33-17.58) were independently associated with serious central nervous system complications while prematurity (OR, 5.84; 95% CI: 2.02-16.85), low birthweight (OR, 8.48; 95% CI: 2.60-27.69), coma at presentation (OR, 31.85; 95% CI: 8.46-119.81) and pneumococcal meningitis (OR, 4.62; 95% CI: 1.19-17.91) were independently associated with death. CONCLUSIONS: The classic features of meningitis were uncommon. The presentation in young infants is often nonspecific, and only half of cases presented with fever. A number of clinical and laboratory factors were associated with poor outcomes; further research is required to determine how knowledge of these risk factors might improve clinical management and outcomes.

Resurgence of scarlet fever in England, 2014-16: a population-based surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: After decades of decreasing scarlet fever incidence, a dramatic increase was seen in England beginning in 2014. Investigations were launched to assess clinical and epidemiological patterns and identify potential causes. METHODS: In this population-based surveillance study, we analysed statutory scarlet fever notifications held by Public Health England from 1911 to 2016 in England and Wales to identify periods of sudden escalation of scarlet fever. Characteristics of cases and outbreaks in England including frequency of complications and hospital admissions were assessed and compared with the pre-upsurge period. Isolates from throat swabs were obtained and were emm typed. FINDINGS: Data were retrieved for our analysis between Jan 1, 1911, and Dec 31, 2016. Population rates of scarlet fever increased by a factor of three between 2013 and 2014 from 8·2 to 27·2 per 100 000 (rate ratio [RR] 3·34, 95% CI 3·23-3·45; p<0·0001); further increases were observed in 2015 (30·6 per 100 000) and in 2016 (33·2 per 100 000), which reached the highest number of cases (19 206) and rate of scarlet fever notifcation since 1967. The median age of cases in 2014 was 4 years (IQR 3-7) with an incidence of 186 per 100 000 children under age 10 years. All parts of England saw an increase in incidence, with 620 outbreaks reported in 2016. Hospital admissions for scarlet fever increased by 97% between 2013 and 2016; one in 40 cases were admitted for management of the condition or potential complications. Analysis of strains (n=303) identified a diversity of emm types with emm3 (43%), emm12 (15%), emm1 (11%), and emm4 (9%) being the most common. Longitudinal analysis identified 4-yearly periodicity in population incidence of scarlet fever but of consistently lower magnitude than the current escalation. INTERPRETATION: England is experiencing an unprecedented rise in scarlet fever with the highest incidence for nearly 50 years. Reasons for this escalation are unclear and identifying these remains a public health priority. FUNDING: None.

A standardized methodology for the surveillance of antimicrobial prescribing linked to clinical indications in primary care.

Background: A key component of strategies to reduce antimicrobial resistance is better antimicrobial prescribing. The majority of antibiotics are prescribed in primary care. While many existing surveillance systems can monitor trends in the quantities of antibiotics prescribed in this setting, it can be difficult to monitor the quality of prescribing as data on the condition for which prescriptions are issued are often not available. We devised a standardized methodology to facilitate the monitoring of condition-specific antibiotic prescribing in primary care. Methods: We used a large computerized general practitioner database to develop a standardized methodology for routine monitoring of antimicrobial prescribing linked to clinical indications in primary care in the UK. Outputs included prescribing rate by syndrome and percentages of consultations with antibiotic prescription, for recommended antibiotic, and of recommended treatment length. Results: The standardized methodology can monitor trends in proportions of common infections for which antibiotics were prescribed, the specific drugs prescribed and duration of treatment. These data can be used to help assess the appropriateness of antibiotic prescribing and to assess the impact of prescribing guidelines. Conclusions: We present a standardized methodology that could be applied to any suitable national or local database and adapted for use in other countries.

Investigating the burden of antibiotic resistance in ethnic minority groups in high-income countries: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic resistance (ABR) is an urgent problem globally, with overuse and misuse of antibiotics being one of the main drivers of antibiotic-resistant infections. There is increasing evidence that the burden of community-acquired infections such as urinary tract infections and bloodstream infections (both susceptible and resistant) may differ by ethnicity, although the reasons behind this relationship are not well defined. It has been demonstrated that socioeconomic status and ethnicity are often highly correlated with each other; however, it is not yet known whether accounting for deprivation completely explains any discrepancy seen in infection risk. There have currently been no systematic reviews summarising the evidence for the relationship between ethnicity and antibiotic resistance or prescribing. METHODS: This protocol will outline how we will conduct this systematic literature review and meta-analysis investigating whether there is an association between patient ethnicity and (1) risk of antibiotic-resistant infections or (2) levels of antibiotic prescribing in high-income countries. We will search PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, Scopus and CINAHL using MESH terms where applicable. Two reviewers will conduct title/abstract screening, data extraction and quality assessment independently. The Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) checklist will be used for cohort and case-control studies, and the Cochrane collaboration's risk of bias tool will be used for randomised control trials, if they are included. Meta-analyses will be performed by calculating the minority ethnic group to majority ethnic group odds ratios or risk ratios for each study and presenting an overall pooled odds ratio for the two outcomes. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessments, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach will be used to assess the overall quality of the body of evidence. DISCUSSION: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we will aim to collate the available evidence of whether there is a difference in rates of AMR and/or antibiotic prescribing in minority vs. majority ethnic groups in high-income countries. Additionally, this review will highlight areas where more research needs to be conducted and may provide insight into what may cause differences in this relationship, should they be seen. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO ( CRD42016051533 ).

Measuring distance through dense weighted networks: The case of hospital-associated pathogens.

Hospital networks, formed by patients visiting multiple hospitals, affect the spread of hospital-associated infections, resulting in differences in risks for hospitals depending on their network position. These networks are increasingly used to inform strategies to prevent and control the spread of hospital-associated pathogens. However, many studies only consider patients that are received directly from the initial hospital, without considering the effect of indirect trajectories through the network. We determine the optimal way to measure the distance between hospitals within the network, by reconstructing the English hospital network based on shared patients in 2014-2015, and simulating the spread of a hospital-associated pathogen between hospitals, taking into consideration that each intermediate hospital conveys a delay in the further spread of the pathogen. While the risk of transferring a hospital-associated pathogen between directly neighbouring hospitals is a direct reflection of the number of shared patients, the distance between two hospitals far-away in the network is determined largely by the number of intermediate hospitals in the network. Because the network is dense, most long distance transmission chains in fact involve only few intermediate steps, spreading along the many weak links. The dense connectivity of hospital networks, together with a strong regional structure, causes hospital-associated pathogens to spread from the initial outbreak in a two-step process: first, the directly surrounding hospitals are affected through the strong connections, second all other hospitals receive introductions through the multitude of weaker links. Although the strong connections matter for local spread, weak links in the network can offer ideal routes for hospital-associated pathogens to travel further faster. This hold important implications for infection prevention and control efforts: if a local outbreak is not controlled in time, colonised patients will appear in other regions, irrespective of the distance to the initial outbreak, making import screening ever more difficult.