Identifying potentially low value surgical care: A national ecological study in England.

OBJECTIVES: High variation in clinical practice may indicate uncertainty and potentially low-value care. Methods to identify low value care are often not well defined or transparent and can be time intensive. In this paper we explore the usefulness of variation analysis of routinely-collected data about surgical procedures in England to identify potentially low-value surgical care. METHODS: This is a national ecological study using Hospital Episode Statistics linked to mid-year population estimates and indices of multiple deprivation in England, 2014/15-2018/19. We identified the top 5% of surgical procedures in terms of growth in standardised procedure rates for 2014/15 to 2018/19 and variation in procedure rates between clinical commissioning groups as measured by the systematic component of variance (SCV). A targeted literature review was conducted to explore the evidence for each of the identified techniques. Procedures without evidence of cost-effectiveness were viewed as of potentially low value. RESULTS: We identified six surgical procedures that had a high growth rate of 37% or more over 5 years, and four with higher geographical variation (SCV >1.6). There was evidence for two of the 10 procedures that surgery was more cost-effective than non-surgical treatment albeit with uncertainty around optimal surgical technique. The evidence base for eight procedures was less clear cut, with uncertainty around clinical- and/or cost-effectiveness. These were: deep brain stimulation; removing the prostate; surgical spine procedures; a procedure to alleviate pain in the spine; surgery for dislocated joints due to trauma and associated surgery for traumatic fractures; hip joint replacement with cemented pelvic component or cemented femoral component; and shoulder joint replacement. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that variation analysis could be regularly used to identify potentially low-value procedures. This can provide important insights into optimising services and the potential de-adoption of costly interventions and treatments that do not benefit patients and the health system more widely. Early identification of potentially low value care can inform prioritisation of clinical trials to generate evidence on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness before treatments become established in clinical practice.

Interim 2023/2024 Season Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Primary and Secondary Care in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: We report 2023/2024 season interim influenza vaccine effectiveness for three studies, namely, primary care in Great Britain, hospital settings in Scotland and hospital settings in England. METHODS: A test negative design was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness. RESULTS: Estimated vaccine effectiveness against all influenzas ranged from 63% (95% confidence interval 46 to 75%) to 65% (41 to 79%) among children aged 2-17, from 36% (20 to 49%) to 55% (43 to 65%) among adults 18-64 and from 40% (29 to 50%) to 55% (32 to 70%) among adults aged 65 and over. CONCLUSIONS: During a period of co-circulation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) in the United Kingdom, evidence for effectiveness of the influenza vaccine in both children and adults was found.

Implications of Measles Inclusion by Commercial Syndromic Polymerase Chain Reaction Panels - United States, May 2022-April 2023.

Syndromic polymerase chain reaction (PCR) panels are used to test for pathogens that can cause rash illnesses, including measles. Rash illnesses have infectious and noninfectious causes, and approximately 5% of persons experience a rash 7-10 days after receipt of a measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine. MMR vaccine includes live attenuated measles virus, which is detectable by PCR tests. No evidence exists of person-to-person transmission of measles vaccine virus, and illness does not typically result among immunocompetent persons. During September 2022-January 2023, the Tennessee Department of Health received two reports of measles detected by syndromic PCR panels. Both reports involved children (aged 1 and 6 years) without known risk factors for measles, who were evaluated for rash that occurred 11-13 days after routine MMR vaccination. After public health responses in Tennessee determined that both PCR panels had detected measles vaccine virus, six state health departments collaborated to assess the frequency and characteristics of persons receiving a positive measles PCR panel test result in the United States. Information was retrospectively collected from a commercial laboratory testing for measles in syndromic multiplex PCR panels. During May 2022-April 2023, among 1,548 syndromic PCR panels, 17 (1.1%) returned positive test results for measles virus. Among 14 persons who received a positive test result and for whom vaccination and case investigation information were available, all had received MMR vaccine a median of 12 days before specimen collection, and none had known risk factors for acquiring measles. All positive PCR results were attributed to detection of measles vaccine virus. Increased awareness among health care providers about potential measles detection by PCR after vaccination is needed. Any detection of measles virus by syndromic PCR testing should be immediately reported to public health agencies, which can use measles vaccination history and assessment of risk factors to determine the appropriate public health response. If a person recently received MMR vaccine and has no risk factors for acquiring measles, additional public health response is likely unnecessary.

The diabetes management experiences questionnaire: Psychometric validation among adults with type 1 diabetes.

AIMS: To examine the psychometric properties of the Diabetes Management Experiences Questionnaire (DME-Q). Adapted from the validated Glucose Monitoring Experiences Questionnaire, the DME-Q captures satisfaction with diabetes management irrespective of treatment modalities. METHODS: The DME-Q was completed by adults with type 1 diabetes as part of a randomized controlled trial comparing hybrid closed loop (HCL) to standard therapy. Most psychometric properties were examined with pre-randomization data (n = 149); responsiveness was examined using baseline and 26-week follow-up data (n = 120). RESULTS: Pre-randomization, participants' mean age was 44 ± 12 years, 52% were women. HbA1c was 61 ± 11 mmol/mol (7.8 ± 1.0%), diabetes duration was 24 ± 12 years and 47% used an insulin pump prior to the trial. A forced three-factor analysis revealed three expected domains, that is, 'Convenience', 'Effectiveness' and 'Intrusiveness', and a forced one-factor solution was also satisfactory. Internal consistency reliability was strong for the three subscales ( α range = 0.74-0.84) and 'Total satisfaction' ( α = 0.85). Convergent validity was demonstrated with moderate correlations between DME-Q 'Total satisfaction' and diabetes distress (PAID: rs = -0.57) and treatment satisfaction (DTSQ; rs = 0.58). Divergent validity was demonstrated with a weak correlation with prospective/retrospective memory (PRMQ: rs = -0.16 and - 0.13 respectively). Responsiveness was demonstrated, as participants randomized to HCL had higher 'Effectiveness' and 'Total satisfaction' scores than those randomized to standard therapy. CONCLUSIONS: The 22-item DME-Q is a brief, acceptable, reliable measure with satisfactory structural and construct validity, which is responsive to intervention. The DME-Q is likely to be useful for evaluation of new pharmaceutical agents and technologies in research and clinical settings.

Development and application of simulation modelling for orthopaedic elective resource planning in England.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop a simulation model to support orthopaedic elective capacity planning. METHODS: An open-source, generalisable discrete-event simulation was developed, including a web-based application. The model used anonymised patient records between 2016 and 2019 of elective orthopaedic procedures from a National Health Service (NHS) Trust in England. In this paper, it is used to investigate scenarios including resourcing (beds and theatres) and productivity (lengths of stay, delayed discharges and theatre activity) to support planning for meeting new NHS targets aimed at reducing elective orthopaedic surgical backlogs in a proposed ring-fenced orthopaedic surgical facility. The simulation is interactive and intended for use by health service planners and clinicians. RESULTS: A higher number of beds (65-70) than the proposed number (40 beds) will be required if lengths of stay and delayed discharge rates remain unchanged. Reducing lengths of stay in line with national benchmarks reduces bed utilisation to an estimated 60%, allowing for additional theatre activity such as weekend working. Further, reducing the proportion of patients with a delayed discharge by 75% reduces bed utilisation to below 40%, even with weekend working. A range of other scenarios can also be investigated directly by NHS planners using the interactive web app. CONCLUSIONS: The simulation model is intended to support capacity planning of orthopaedic elective services by identifying a balance of capacity across theatres and beds and predicting the impact of productivity measures on capacity requirements. It is applicable beyond the study site and can be adapted for other specialties.

The impact of restricted provision of publicly funded elective hip and knee joints replacement during the COVID-19 pandemic in England.

AIMS: Elective hip and knee replacement operations were suspended in April 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of this suspension and continued disruption to the delivery of joint replacement surgery is still emerging. We describe the impact of the pandemic on the provision of publicly funded elective hip and knee replacement surgery at one teaching hospital in England and on which patients had surgery. METHODS: We included all elective primary and revision hip and knee replacements performed at one hospital between January 2016 and June 2021. Using data for the years 2016-2019, we estimated the expected number of operations and beds occupied per month in January 2020 to June 2021 using time series linear models (adjusting for season and trend). We compared the predictions with the real data for January 2020 to June 2021 to assess the impact of the pandemic on the provision of elective hip and knee replacements. We compared the length of stay and characteristics (age, gender, number of comorbidities, index of multiple deprivation) of patients who had surgery before the pandemic with those who had surgery during the pandemic. RESULTS: We included 6,964 elective primary and revision hip and knee replacements between January 2016 and June 2021. Between January 2020 and June 2021 primary hip replacement volume was 59% of predicted, and 47% for primary knee replacements. Revision hip replacement volume was 77% of predicted, and 42% for revision knee replacement. Median length of stay was one day shorter for primary (4 vs 3 days) and revision (6 vs 5 days) operations during the pandemic compared with before. Patients operated on during the pandemic were younger and had slightly more comorbidities than those operated on before the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The restricted provision of elective hip and knee replacements during the COVID-19 pandemic changed the patient casemix, but did not introduce new inequalities in access to these operations. Patients were younger, had more comorbidities, and stayed in hospital for less time than those treated before the pandemic. Approximately half the number of operations were performed during the pandemic than would have been expected and the effect was greatest for revision knee replacements.

Access to publicly funded weight management services in England using routine data from primary and secondary care (2007-2020): An observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Adults living with overweight/obesity are eligible for publicly funded weight management (WM) programmes according to national guidance. People with the most severe and complex obesity are eligible for bariatric surgery. Primary care plays a key role in identifying overweight/obesity and referring to WM interventions. This study aimed to (1) describe the primary care population in England who (a) are referred for WM interventions and (b) undergo bariatric surgery and (2) determine the patient and GP practice characteristics associated with both. METHODS AND FINDINGS: An observational cohort study was undertaken using routinely collected primary care data in England from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with Hospital Episode Statistics. During the study period (January 2007 to June 2020), 1,811,587 adults met the inclusion criteria of a recording of overweight/obesity in primary care, of which 54.62% were female and 20.10% aged 45 to 54. Only 56,783 (3.13%) were referred to WM, and 3,701 (1.09% of those with severe and complex obesity) underwent bariatric surgery. Multivariable Poisson regression examined the associations of demographic, clinical, and regional characteristics on the likelihood of WM referral and bariatric surgery. Higher body mass index (BMI) and practice region had the strongest associations with both outcomes. People with BMI ≥40 kg/m2 were more than 6 times as likely to be referred for WM (10.05% of individuals) than BMI 25.0 to 29.9 kg/m2 (1.34%) (rate ratio (RR) 6.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) [5.99,6.40], p < 0.001). They were more than 5 times as likely to undergo bariatric surgery (3.98%) than BMI 35.0 to 40.0 kg/m2 with a comorbidity (0.53%) (RR 5.52, 95% CI [5.07,6.02], p < 0.001). Patients from practices in the West Midlands were the most likely to have a WM referral (5.40%) (RR 2.17, 95% CI [2.10,2.24], p < 0.001, compared with the North West, 2.89%), and practices from the East of England least likely (1.04%) (RR 0.43, 95% CI [0.41,0.46], p < 0.001, compared with North West). Patients from practices in London were the most likely to undergo bariatric surgery (2.15%), and practices in the North West the least likely (0.68%) (RR 3.29, 95% CI [2.88,3.76], p < 0.001, London compared with North West). Longer duration since diagnosis with severe and complex obesity (e.g., 1.67% of individuals diagnosed in 2007 versus 0.34% in 2015, RR 0.20, 95% CI [0.12,0.32], p < 0.001), and increasing comorbidities (e.g., 2.26% of individuals with 6+ comorbidities versus 1.39% with none (RR 8.79, 95% CI [7.16,10.79], p < 0.001) were also strongly associated with bariatric surgery. The main limitation is the reliance on overweight/obesity being recorded within primary care records to identify the study population. CONCLUSIONS: Between 2007 and 2020, a very small percentage of the primary care population eligible for WM referral or bariatric surgery according to national guidance received either. Higher BMI and GP practice region had the strongest associations with both. Regional inequalities may reflect differences in commissioning and provision of WM services across the country. Multi-stakeholder qualitative research is ongoing to understand the barriers to accessing WM services and potential solutions. Together with population-wide prevention strategies, improved access to WM interventions is needed to reduce obesity levels.

Development and assessment of the performance of a shared ventilatory system that uses clinically available components to individualize tidal volumes.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and assess a system for shared ventilation using clinically available components to individualize tidal volumes. DESIGN: Evaluation and in vitro validation study SETTING: Ventilator shortage during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. PARTICIPANTS: The team consisted of physicians, bioengineers, computer programmers, and medical technology professionals. METHODS: Using clinically available components, a system of ventilation consisting of two ventilatory limbs was assembled and connected to a ventilator. Monitors for each limb were developed using open-source software. Firstly, the effect of altering ventilator settings on tidal volumes delivered to each limb was determined. Secondly, the impact of altering the compliance and resistance of one limb on the tidal volumes delivered to both limbs was analysed. Experiments were repeated three times to determine system variability. RESULTS: The system permitted accurate and reproducible titration of tidal volumes to each limb over a range of ventilator settings and simulated lung conditions. Alteration of ventilator inspiratory pressures, of respiratory rates, and I:E ratio resulted in very similar tidal volumes delivered to each limb. Alteration of compliance and resistance in one limb resulted in reproducible alterations in tidal volume to that test lung, with little change to tidal volumes in the other lung. All tidal volumes delivered were reproducible. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate the reliability of a shared ventilation system assembled using commonly available clinical components that allows titration of individual tidal volumes. This system may be useful as a strategy of last resort for Covid-19, or other mass casualty situations, where the need for ventilators exceeds supply.

Christine Gibbs.

A pioneer of veterinary radiology, she was a born teacher and a role model.

Secondary healthcare costs after mastectomy and immediate breast reconstruction for women with breast cancer in England: population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Immediate breast reconstruction after mastectomy can improve the quality of life for women with breast cancer and rates are increasing. Long-term inpatient costs of care were estimated to understand the impact of different immediate breast reconstruction procedures on healthcare expenditure. METHODS: Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care data were used to identify women undergoing unilateral mastectomy and immediate breast reconstruction in English National Health Service hospitals (1 April 2009 to 31 March 2015) and any subsequent procedures performed to revise, replace, or complete the breast reconstruction. Costs were assigned to Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care data using the Healthcare Resource Group 2020/21 National Costs Grouper. Generalized linear models were used to estimate mean cumulative costs for five immediate breast reconstruction procedures over 3 and 8 years, adjusting for covariates (age/ethnicity/deprivation). RESULTS: A total of 16 890 women underwent mastectomy and immediate breast reconstruction: implant (5192; 30.7 per cent), expander (2826; 16.7 per cent), autologous latissimus dorsi flap (2372; 14.0 per cent), latissimus dorsi flap with expander/implant (3109; 18.4 per cent), and abdominal free-flap reconstruction (3391; 20.1 per cent). The mean (95 per cent c.i.) cumulative cost was lowest for latissimus dorsi flap with expander/implant reconstruction (€20 103 (€19 582 to €20 625)) over 3 years and highest for abdominal free-flap reconstruction (€27 560 (€27 037 to €28 083)). Over 8 years, expander (€29 140 (€27 659 to €30 621)) and latissimus dorsi flap with expander/implant (€29 312 (€27 622 to €31 003)) reconstructions were the least expensive, while abdominal free-flap reconstruction (€34 536 (€32 958 to €36 113)) remained the most expensive, despite having lower costs for revisions and secondary reconstructions. This was driven primarily by the cost of the index procedure (€5435 (expander reconstruction) to €15 106 (abdominal free-flap reconstruction)). CONCLUSION: Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care Healthcare Resource Group data provided a comprehensive longitudinal cost assessment of secondary care. Although abdominal free-flap reconstruction was the most expensive option, higher costs of the index procedure need to be balanced against ongoing long-term costs of revisions/secondary reconstructions, which are higher after implant-based procedures.

Impact of pausing elective hip and knee replacement surgery during 2017 on subsequent service provision at a major NHS Trust: a descriptive observational study using interrupted time series.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the impact of a temporary cancellation of elective surgery in winter 2017 on trends in primary hip and knee replacement at a major National Health Service (NHS) Trust, and whether lessons can be learnt about efficient surgery provision. DESIGN AND SETTING: Observational descriptive study using interrupted time series analysis of hospital records to explore trends in primary hip and knee replacement surgery at a major NHS Trust, as well as patient characteristics, 2016-2019. INTERVENTION: A temporary cancellation of elective services for 2 months in winter 2017. OUTCOMES: NHS-funded hospital admissions for primary hip or knee replacement, length of stay and bed occupancy. Additionally, we explored the ratio of elective to emergency admissions at the Trust as a measure of elective capacity, and the ratio of public to private provision of NHS-funded hip and knee surgery. RESULTS: After winter 2017, there was a sustained reduction in the number of knee replacements, a decrease in the proportion of most deprived people having knee replacements and an increase in average age for knee replacement and comorbidity for both types of surgery. The ratio of public to private provision dropped after winter 2017, and elective capacity generally has reduced over time. There was clear seasonality in provision of elective surgery, with less complex patients admitted during winter. CONCLUSIONS: Declining elective capacity and seasonality has a marked effect on the provision of joint replacement, despite efficiency improvements in hospital treatment. The Trust has outsourced less complex patients to independent providers, and/or treated them during winter when capacity is most limited. There is a need to explore whether these are strategies that could be used explicitly to maximise the use of limited elective capacity, provide benefit to patients and value for money for taxpayers.

Interrupted time series evaluation of the impact of a dementia wellbeing service on avoidable hospital admissions for people with dementia in Bristol, England.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether a dementia wellbeing service (DWS) signposting people with dementia to community services decreases the rate of avoidable hospital admissions, in-hospital mortality, complexity of admissions (number of comorbidities) or length of stay. METHODS: Interrupted time series analysis to estimate the effects of the DWS on hospital outcomes. We included all unplanned admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions ('avoidable hospital admissions') with a dementia diagnosis recorded in the Hospital Episode Statistics. The intervention region was compared with a demographically similar control region in the 2 years before and 3 years after the implementation of the new service (October 2013 to September 2018). RESULTS: There was no strong evidence that admission rates reduced and only weak evidence that the trend in average length of stay reduced slowly over time. In-hospital mortality decreased immediately after the introduction of the dementia wellbeing service compared to comparator areas (x0.64, 95% CI 0.42, 0.97, p = 0.037) but attenuated over the following years. The rate of increase in comorbidities also appeared to slow after the service began; they were similar to comparator areas by September 2018. CONCLUSIONS: We found no major impact of the DWS on avoidable hospital admissions, although there was weak evidence for slightly shorter length of stay and reduced complexity of hospital admissions. These findings may or may not reflect a true benefit of the service and require further investigation. The DWS was established to improve quality of dementia care; reducing hospital admissions was never its sole purpose. More targeted interventions may be required to reduce hospital admissions for people with dementia.

Extracorporeal life support provision in COVID-19 patients - An international EuroELSO 2022 update survey.

INTRODUCTION: An analysis on the ECLS use for patients with respiratory or cardiac support in COVID-19 based on an international response to EuroELSO survey, aims to generate a more comprehensive understanding of ECLS role during the recent viral pandemic. METHODS: EuroELSO announced the survey at the 10th annual congress in London, May 2022. The survey covered 26 multiple-choice questions. RESULTS: The survey returned 69 questionnaires from 62 centers across 22 European countries and seven centers across five non-European countries. Most of the centers providing ECLS for COVID-19 patients had more than 30 runs for respiratory support since December 2019. In the same period, at least 31 runs in adult COVID-19 patients have been performed in 48 of 69 centers (69.6%). The reported pediatric data from 18 centers is limited to less than the patients per center. CONCLUSION: Majority of the COVID-19 patients received respiratory ECLS support and adult patients dominated. The indications and contraindications are broadly aligned with available guidelines. Most of the centers considered age >65 or biological age as a relative or absolute contraindication for ECLS in COVID-19. ECLS withdrawal criteria in COVID-19 are controversial because the long-term outcomes after ECLS in COVID-19 and the impact of critical illness and the impact of long-COVID are still not known.

Suicide under the Nazi-regime: A Case-control Study among Amsterdam Jews.

OBJECTIVE: Jewish suicides increased heavily under Nazi-rule. This research investigated risk factors for dying from suicide according to sociodemographic characteristics, local context, and time periods. METHODS: Nazi-registration of Amsterdam residents of Jewish origin in 1941 linked to death and suicide lists. The added suicides after the Nazi-invasion (1940, n = 115) and the suicides when deportation trains ran (1942/1943, n = 182) were each matched to 25 controls using sex and age. Suicide was compared across migrant, occupational, marital, and religious status and neighborhood religiosity. Conditional logistic regression was applied, stratified by time period. RESULTS: In 1940, immigrant (cf. native born, odds ratio (OR) 1.89, 95%CI 1.21-2.96, p = .005) and married Jews (cf. previously married) showed higher suicide risk; members of Israelite Congregations (cf. nonmembers, OR 0.35, 95%CI 0.22-0.56, p < .001) showed reduced risk. Jews living in low synagogue rate neighborhoods showed higher risk compared to those living in neighborhoods without any synagogues (OR 2.48, 95%CI 1.65-3.72, p < .001) while those living in high synagogue rate neighborhoods showed no increased risk (OR 0.58, 95%CI 0.30-1.11, p = .10). In 1942/1943, the association between religious status (OR 1.07, 95%CI 0.67, 1.72, p = .77), synagogue rate (OR 1.27, 95%CI 0.91-1.77, p = .16), immigrant status (OR 1.30, 95%CI 0.92-1.84, p = .14) and suicide attenuated; Jews in managerial/professional occupations (cf. workers) or unmarried (cf. married) showed higher risk. CONCLUSIONS: In 1940, immigrants' higher suicide risk likely indicates greater fear of Nazis while religious affiliation's lower risk might indicate a protective effect of religious belief. In 1942/1943, risk differences markedly attenuated likely indicating increased fear of Nazis among all Jews.HighlightsReligiously affiliated Jews showed reduced risk of dying from suicide after the Nazi-invasionJewish immigrants showed higher risk of dying from suicide after the Nazi-invasionBy 1942/1943, these risks attenuated indicating fear of the Nazis spread and nullified religion's protection.

Identification of risk factors associated with prolonged hospital stay following primary knee replacement surgery: a retrospective, longitudinal observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To identify risk factors associated with prolonged length of hospital stay and staying in hospital longer than medically necessary following primary knee replacement surgery. DESIGN: Retrospective, longitudinal observational study. SETTING: Elective knee replacement surgeries between 2016 and 2019 were identified using routinely collected data from an NHS Trust in England. PARTICIPANTS: There were 2295 knee replacement patients with complete data included in analysis. The mean age was 68 (SD 11) and 60% were female. OUTCOME MEASURES: We assessed a binary length of stay outcome (>7 days), a continuous length of stay outcome (≤30 days) and a binary measure of whether patients remained in hospital when they were medically fit for discharge. RESULTS: The mean length of stay was 5.0 days (SD 3.9), 15.4% of patients were in hospital for >7 days and 7.1% remained in hospital when they were medically fit for discharge. Longer length of stay was associated with older age (b=0.08, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.09), female sex (b=0.36, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.67), high deprivation (b=0.98, 95% CI 0.47 to 1.48) and more comorbidities (b=2.48, 95% CI 0.15 to 4.81). Remaining in hospital beyond being medically fit for discharge was associated with older age (OR=1.07, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.09), female sex (OR=1.71, 95% CI 1.19 to 2.47) and high deprivation (OR=2.27, 95% CI 1.27 to 4.06). CONCLUSIONS: The regression models could be used to identify which patients are likely to occupy hospital beds for longer. This could be helpful in scheduling operations to aid hospital efficiency by planning these patients' operations for when the hospital is less busy.

Evaluation and Refinement of a Spot-change-only Cage Management System for Mice.

Maximizing operational efficiency while maintaining appropriate animal housing conditions is a continuous focus of research animal care programs. Our institution's longstanding approach to cage-change management included scheduled cage changes every 2 wk, with spot changes if cages met established visual criteria during the intervening period. This 2-wk plus spot changing (2WS) practice for mice housed in IVC was problematic during the COVID-19 pandemic when the need arose to minimize workload to reduce on-site staffing out of concern for employee health and possible absenteeism. With the approval of the IACUC, a spot-change-only (SCO) process was adopted, with the requirement to evaluate microenvironmental parameters under both practices to confirm acceptable equivalence. These parameters (humidity, temperature, and ammonia) were evaluated in a controlled study that found no significant difference between the 2 groups. Ammonia levels did not exceed 10 ppm in any group throughout the study. To assess operational differences between these 2 approaches, we collected cage-change data and employee feedback from facilities operating under these schemes. The SCO method required fewer cage changes than did the 2WS method (10.3% per day with 2WS and 8.4% per day with SCO). Despite this benefit, through a Plan-Do-Check-Act process that has been regularly employed at our institution, employee feedback identified important operational challenges associated with the SCO practice. The SCO approach was thus refined into a scheduled spot change (SSC) practice that builds on the SCO model by incorporating a scheduled focused cage evaluation period. Based on subsequent feedback, the SSC was found to retain the efficiency benefits afforded by the SCO model and simultaneously alleviated staff and operational concerns. This result underscores the importance of integrating staff feedback with a performance standard-based approach when assessing cage-change management.

Variations in policies for accessing elective musculoskeletal procedures in the English National Health Service: A documentary analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The overall aim of this study was to investigate how commissioning policies for accessing clinical procedures compare in the context of the English National Health Service. Our primary objective was to compare policy wording and categorise any variations identified. Our secondary objective was to explore how any points of variation relate to national guidance. METHODS: This study entailed documentary analysis of commissioning policies that stipulated criteria for accessing eight elective musculoskeletal procedures. For each procedure, we retrieved policies held by regions with higher and lower rates of clinical activity relative to the national average. Policies were subjected to content and thematic analysis, using constant comparison techniques. Matrices and descriptive reports were used to compare themes across policies for each procedure and derive categories of variation that arose across two or more procedures. National guidance relating to each procedure were identified and scrutinised, to explore whether these provided context for explaining the policy variations. RESULTS: Thirty-five policy documents held by 14 geographic regions were included in the analysis. Policies either focused on a single procedure/treatment or covered several procedures/treatments in an all-encompassing document. All policies stipulated criteria that needed to be fulfilled prior to accessing treatment, but there were inconsistences in the evidence cited. Policies varied in recurring ways, with respect to specification of non-surgical treatments and management, requirements around time spent using non-surgical approaches, diagnostic requirements, requirements around symptom severity and disease progression, and use of language, in the form of terms and phrases ('threshold modifiers') which could open up or restrict access to care. National guidance was identified for seven of the procedures, but this guidance did not specify criteria for accessing the procedures in question, making direct comparisons with regional policies difficult. CONCLUSIONS: This, to our knowledge, is the first study to identify recurring ways in which policies for accessing treatment can vary within a single-payer system with universal coverage. The findings raise questions around whether formulation of commissioning policies should receive more central support to promote greater consistency - especially where evidence is uncertain, variable or lacking.

Microplastic atmospheric dustfall pollution in urban environment: Evidence from the types, distribution, and probable sources in Beijing, China.

Airborne microplastics (MPs) pollution is an environmental problem of increasing concern, due to the ubiquity, persistence and potential toxicity of plastics in the atmosphere. In recent years, most studies on MPs have focused on aquatic and sedimentary environments, but little research has been done on MPs in the urban atmosphere. In this study, a total of ten dustfall samples were collected in a transect from north to south across urban Beijing. The compositions, morphologies, and sizes of the MPs in these dustfall samples were determined by means of Laser Direct Infrared (LDIR) imaging and Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM). The number concentrations of MPs in the Beijing dustfall samples show an average of 123.6 items/g. The MPs concentrations show different patterns in the central, southern, and northern zones of Beijing. The number concentration of MPs was the highest in the central zone (224.76 items/g), as compared with the southern zone (170.55 items/g), and the northern zone (24.42 items/g). The LDIR analysis revealed nine compositional types of MPs, including Polypropylene (PP), Polyamide (PA), Polystyrene (PS), Polyethylene (PE), Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET), Silicone, Polycarbonate (PC), Polyurethane (PU) and Polyvinylchloride (PVC), among which PP was overall dominant. The PP dominates the MPs in the central zone (76.3%), and the PA dominates the MPs in the southern zone (55.86%), while the northern zone had a diverse combination of MPs types. The morphological types of the individual MPs particle include fragments, pellets, and fibers, among which fragments are dominant (70.9%). FESEM images show the presence of aged MPs in the Beijing atmosphere, which could pose a yet unquantified health risk to Beijing's residents. The average size of the MPs in the Beijing samples is 66.62 µm. Our study revealed that the numbers of fibrous MPs increase with the decrease in size. This pollution therefore needs to be carefully monitored, and methods of decreasing the sources and mitigations developed.

Can we accurately forecast non-elective bed occupancy and admissions in the NHS? A time-series MSARIMA analysis of longitudinal data from an NHS Trust.

OBJECTIVES: The main objective of the study was to develop more accurate and precise short-term forecasting models for admissions and bed occupancy for an NHS Trust located in Bristol, England. Subforecasts for the medical and surgical specialties, and for different lengths of stay were realised DESIGN: Autoregressive integrated moving average models were specified on a training dataset of daily count data, then tested on a 6-week forecast horizon. Explanatory variables were included in the models: day of the week, holiday days, lagged temperature and precipitation. SETTING: A secondary care hospital in an NHS Trust in South West England. PARTICIPANTS: Hospital admissions between September 2016 and March 2020, comprising 1291 days. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The accuracy of the forecasts was assessed through standard measures, as well as compared with the actual data using accuracy thresholds of 10% and 20% of the mean number of admissions or occupied beds. RESULTS: The overall Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) admissions forecast was compared with the Trust's forecast, and found to be more accurate, namely, being closer to the actual value 95.6% of the time. Furthermore, it was more precise than the Trust's. The subforecasts, as well as those for bed occupancy, tended to be less accurate compared with the overall forecasts. All of the explanatory variables improved the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: ARIMA models can forecast non-elective admissions in an NHS Trust accurately on a 6-week horizon, which is an improvement on the current predictive modelling in the Trust. These models can be readily applied to other contexts, improving patient flow.

Diagnosis and management of phyllodes tumours for the surgeon: An algorithm.

A Phyllodes Tumour (PT) is an uncommon fibroepithelial lesion, with three histological grades - benign, borderline and malignant. PTs cause significant challenges in diagnosis, management and prognostication. Recent publications have clarified the definitions and prognostication of PTs. Contemporary data currently challenge international guidelines on PT management. We performed an in-depth literature review to develop a best-practice management algorithm for PTs. Diagnostic recommendations are that neither current imaging techniques, nor fine-needle biopsies, can reliably diagnose a PT. Core needle biopsy is the optimal diagnostic technique. Indeterminate or suspicious lesions are recommended to undergo an excisional biopsy due to the inherently heterogeneous nature of PTs. Management guidelines are that benign PTs should be completely excised, although an involved margin is acceptable in select situations. Borderline PTs should have a clear margin on excision due to their higher risk of recurrence, as well as the potential for a recurrence to progress to a malignant PT. In malignant PTs, a margin of 3 mm is acceptable as there is no reduction in recurrence risk if margins are >3 mm. Routine axillary surgery is not indicated in PTs, with axillary surgery only indicated in a histologically-confirmed positive axilla. Adjuvant treatment recommendations are that borderline and malignant PTs should be discussed at MDT, with radiotherapy considered in both. Chemotherapy should be discussed in malignant PT patients. In summary, we have developed an up-to-date simple algorithm to guide the surgeon's management of patients diagnosed with PTs and reduce excessive surgery.