An attribution of value framework for combination treatments.

OBJECTIVE: The use of cost-effectiveness methods to support policy decisions has become well established but difficulties can arise when evaluating a new treatment which is indicated to be used in combination with an established "backbone treatment." If the latter has been priced close to the decision maker's willingness to pay threshold, this may mean that there is no headroom for the new treatment to demonstrate value, at any price, even if the combination is clinically effective. Without a mechanism for attributing value to component treatments within a combination therapy, the health system risks generating negative funding decisions for combinations of proven clinical benefit to patients. The aim of this work was to define a value attribution methodology which could be used to allocate value between the components of any combination treatment. METHODS: The framework is grounded in the standard decision rules of cost-effectiveness analysis and provides solutions according to key features of the problem: perfect/imperfect information about component treatment monotherapy effects and balanced/unbalanced market power between their manufacturers. RESULTS: The share of incremental value varies depending on whether there is perfect/imperfect information and balance/imbalance of market power, with some scenarios requiring the manufacturers to negotiate a share of the incremental value within a range defined by the framework. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to define a framework that is independent of price and focuses on benefits expressed as Quality-Adjusted Life-Year (QALY) gains (and/or QALY equivalents for cost-savings), a standard metric used by many HTA agencies to evaluate novel treatments.

Advanced imaging for earlier diagnosis and morbidity prevention in multiple myeloma: A British Society of Haematology and UK Myeloma Society Good Practice Paper.

This Good Practice Paper provides recommendations for the use of advanced imaging for earlier diagnosis and morbidity prevention in multiple myeloma. It describes how advanced imaging contributes to optimal healthcare resource utilisation by in newly diagnosed and relapsed myeloma, and provides a perspective on future directions of myeloma imaging, including machine learning assisted reporting.

Deciphering the genetics and mechanisms of predisposition to multiple myeloma.

Multiple myeloma (MM) is an incurable malignancy of plasma cells. Epidemiological studies indicate a substantial heritable component, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here, in a genome-wide association study totaling 10,906 cases and 366,221 controls, we identify 35 MM risk loci, 12 of which are novel. Through functional fine-mapping and Mendelian randomization, we uncover two causal mechanisms for inherited MM risk: longer telomeres; and elevated levels of B-cell maturation antigen (BCMA) and interleukin-5 receptor alpha (IL5RA) in plasma. The largest increase in BCMA and IL5RA levels is mediated by the risk variant rs34562254-A at TNFRSF13B. While individuals with loss-of-function variants in TNFRSF13B develop B-cell immunodeficiency, rs34562254-A exerts a gain-of-function effect, increasing MM risk through amplified B-cell responses. Our results represent an analysis of genetic MM predisposition, highlighting causal mechanisms contributing to MM development.

Diagnosis and initial treatment of transplant-eligible high-risk myeloma patients: A British Society for Haematology/UK Myeloma Society Good Practice Paper.

This Good Practice Paper provides recommendations for the diagnosis and initial management of transplant-eligible high-risk myeloma patients. It describes recent updates to the genetic diagnostics of high-risk myeloma and provides recommendations for treatment on the basis of recent prospective clinical trial evidence.

Still high risk? A review of translocation t(14;16) in multiple myeloma.

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a heterogeneous and complex disease, both in mutational biology as well as in the clinical presentation of patients. While tailored and biomarker-targeted therapy remains the direct goal for patient-centric management, existing therapies in MM remain largely uniform. Translocation t(14;16) is a rare primary genetic event found in less than 5% of patients with newly diagnosed MM. Here, we present an overview of the biology of t(14;16), epidemiology, clinical presentation, prognostic impact, and discuss the future clinical and therapeutic strategies for targeting this rare yet high-risk group in MM to optimize patient outcomes.

Museomics help resolving the phylogeny of snowfinches (Aves, Passeridae, Montifringilla and allies).

Historical specimens from museum collections provide a valuable source of material also from remote areas or regions of conflict that are not easily accessible to scientists today. With this study, we are providing a taxon-complete phylogeny of snowfinches using historical DNA from whole skins of an endemic species from Afghanistan, the Afghan snowfinch, Pyrgilauda theresae. To resolve the strong conflict between previous phylogenetic hypotheses, we generated novel mitogenome sequences for selected taxa and genome-wide SNP data using ddRAD sequencing for all extant snowfinch species endemic to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and for an extended intraspecific sampling of the sole Central and Western Palearctic snowfinch species (Montifringilla nivalis). Our phylogenetic reconstructions unanimously refuted the previously suggested paraphyly of genus Pyrgilauda. Misplacement of one species-level taxon (Onychostruthus tazcanowskii) in previous snowfinch phylogenies was undoubtedly inferred from chimeric mitogenomes that included heterospecific sequence information. Furthermore, comparison of novel and previously generated sequence data showed that the presumed sister-group relationship between M. nivalis and the QTP endemic M. henrici was suggested based on flawed taxonomy. Our phylogenetic reconstructions based on genome-wide SNP data and on mitogenomes were largely congruent and supported reciprocal monophyly of genera Montifringilla and Pyrgilauda with monotypic Onychostruthus being sister to the latter. The Afghan endemic P. theresae likely originated from a rather ancient Pliocene out-of-Tibet dispersal probably from a common ancestor with P. ruficollis. Our extended trans-Palearctic sampling for the white-winged snowfinch, M. nivalis, confirmed strong lineage divergence between an Asian and a European clade dated to 1.5 - 2.7 million years ago (mya). Genome-wide SNP data suggested subtle divergence among European samples from the Alps and from the Cantabrian mountains.

Phenome-wide Mendelian randomisation analysis of 378,142 cases reveals risk factors for eight common cancers.

For many cancers there are only a few well-established risk factors. Here, we use summary data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in a Mendelian randomisation (MR) phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to identify potentially causal relationships for over 3,000 traits. Our outcome datasets comprise 378,142 cases across breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, endometrial, oesophageal, renal, and ovarian cancers, as well as 485,715 controls. We complement this analysis by systematically mining the literature space for supporting evidence. In addition to providing supporting evidence for well-established risk factors (smoking, alcohol, obesity, lack of physical activity), we also find sex steroid hormones, plasma lipids, and telomere length as determinants of cancer risk. A number of the molecular factors we identify may prove to be potential biomarkers. Our analysis, which highlights aetiological similarities and differences in common cancers, should aid public health prevention strategies to reduce cancer burden. We provide a R/Shiny app to visualise findings.

Curation of myeloma observational study MALIMAR using XNAT: solving the challenges posed by real-world data.

OBJECTIVES: MAchine Learning In MyelomA Response (MALIMAR) is an observational clinical study combining "real-world" and clinical trial data, both retrospective and prospective. Images were acquired on three MRI scanners over a 10-year window at two institutions, leading to a need for extensive curation. METHODS: Curation involved image aggregation, pseudonymisation, allocation between project phases, data cleaning, upload to an XNAT repository visible from multiple sites, annotation, incorporation of machine learning research outputs and quality assurance using programmatic methods. RESULTS: A total of 796 whole-body MR imaging sessions from 462 subjects were curated. A major change in scan protocol part way through the retrospective window meant that approximately 30% of available imaging sessions had properties that differed significantly from the remainder of the data. Issues were found with a vendor-supplied clinical algorithm for "composing" whole-body images from multiple imaging stations. Historic weaknesses in a digital video disk (DVD) research archive (already addressed by the mid-2010s) were highlighted by incomplete datasets, some of which could not be completely recovered. The final dataset contained 736 imaging sessions for 432 subjects. Software was written to clean and harmonise data. Implications for the subsequent machine learning activity are considered. CONCLUSIONS: MALIMAR exemplifies the vital role that curation plays in machine learning studies that use real-world data. A research repository such as XNAT facilitates day-to-day management, ensures robustness and consistency and enhances the value of the final dataset. The types of process described here will be vital for future large-scale multi-institutional and multi-national imaging projects. CRITICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: This article showcases innovative data curation methods using a state-of-the-art image repository platform; such tools will be vital for managing the large multi-institutional datasets required to train and validate generalisable ML algorithms and future foundation models in medical imaging. KEY POINTS: • Heterogeneous data in the MALIMAR study required the development of novel curation strategies. • Correction of multiple problems affecting the real-world data was successful, but implications for machine learning are still being evaluated. • Modern image repositories have rich application programming interfaces enabling data enrichment and programmatic QA, making them much more than simple "image marts".

Genomic Classification and Individualized Prognosis in Multiple Myeloma.

PURPOSE: Outcomes for patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) are heterogenous, with overall survival (OS) ranging from months to over 10 years. METHODS: To decipher and predict the molecular and clinical heterogeneity of NDMM, we assembled a series of 1,933 patients with available clinical, genomic, and therapeutic data. RESULTS: Leveraging a comprehensive catalog of genomic drivers, we identified 12 groups, expanding on previous gene expression-based molecular classifications. To build a model predicting individualized risk in NDMM (IRMMa), we integrated clinical, genomic, and treatment variables. To correct for time-dependent variables, including high-dose melphalan followed by autologous stem-cell transplantation (HDM-ASCT), and maintenance therapy, a multi-state model was designed. The IRMMa model accuracy was significantly higher than all comparator prognostic models, with a c-index for OS of 0.726, compared with International Staging System (ISS; 0.61), revised-ISS (0.572), and R2-ISS (0.625). Integral to model accuracy was 20 genomic features, including 1q21 gain/amp, del 1p, TP53 loss, NSD2 translocations, APOBEC mutational signatures, and copy-number signatures (reflecting the complex structural variant chromothripsis). IRMMa accuracy and superiority compared with other prognostic models were validated on 256 patients enrolled in the GMMG-HD6 (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02495922) clinical trial. Individualized patient risks were significantly affected across the 12 genomic groups by different treatment strategies (ie, treatment variance), which was used to identify patients for whom HDM-ASCT is particularly effective versus patients for whom the impact is limited. CONCLUSION: Integrating clinical, demographic, genomic, and therapeutic data, to our knowledge, we have developed the first individualized risk-prediction model enabling personally tailored therapeutic decisions for patients with NDMM.

Coherent olfactory bulb gamma oscillations arise from coupling independent columnar oscillators.

Spike timing-based representations of sensory information depend on embedded dynamical frameworks within neuronal networks that establish the rules of local computation and interareal communication. Here, we investigated the dynamical properties of olfactory bulb circuitry in mice of both sexes using microelectrode array recordings from slice and in vivo preparations. Neurochemical activation or optogenetic stimulation of sensory afferents evoked persistent gamma oscillations in the local field potential. These oscillations arose from slower, GABA(A) receptor-independent intracolumnar oscillators coupled by GABA(A)-ergic synapses into a faster, broadly coherent network oscillation. Consistent with the theoretical properties of coupled-oscillator networks, the spatial extent of zero-phase coherence was bounded in slices by the reduced density of lateral interactions. The intact in vivo network, however, exhibited long-range lateral interactions that suffice in simulation to enable zero-phase gamma coherence across the olfactory bulb. The timing of action potentials in a subset of principal neurons was phase-constrained with respect to evoked gamma oscillations. Coupled-oscillator dynamics in olfactory bulb thereby enable a common clock, robust to biological heterogeneities, that is capable of supporting gamma-band spike synchronization and phase coding across the ensemble of activated principal neurons.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Odor stimulation evokes rhythmic gamma oscillations in the field potential of the olfactory bulb, but the dynamical mechanisms governing these oscillations have remained unclear. Establishing these mechanisms is important as they determine the biophysical capacities of the bulbar circuit to, for example, maintain zero-phase coherence across a spatially extended network, or coordinate the timing of action potentials in principal neurons. These properties in turn constrain and suggest hypotheses of sensory coding.

Image quality in whole-body MRI using the MY-RADS protocol in a prospective multi-centre multiple myeloma study.

BACKGROUND: The Myeloma Response Assessment and Diagnosis System (MY-RADS) guidelines establish a standardised acquisition and analysis pipeline for whole-body MRI (WB-MRI) in patients with myeloma. This is the first study to assess image quality in a multi-centre prospective trial using MY-RADS. METHODS: The cohort consisted of 121 examinations acquired across ten sites with a range of prior WB-MRI experience, three scanner manufacturers and two field strengths. Image quality was evaluated qualitatively by a radiologist and quantitatively using a semi-automated pipeline to quantify common artefacts and image quality issues. The intra- and inter-rater repeatability of qualitative and quantitative scoring was also assessed. RESULTS: Qualitative radiological scoring found that the image quality was generally good, with 94% of examinations rated as good or excellent and only one examination rated as non-diagnostic. There was a significant correlation between radiological and quantitative scoring for most measures, and intra- and inter-rater repeatability were generally good. When the quality of an overall examination was low, this was often due to low quality diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), where signal to noise ratio (SNR), anterior thoracic signal loss and brain geometric distortion were found as significant predictors of examination quality. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to successfully deliver a multi-centre WB-MRI study using the MY-RADS protocol involving scanners with a range of manufacturers, models and field strengths. Quantitative measures of image quality were developed and shown to be significantly correlated with radiological assessment. The SNR of DW images was identified as a significant factor affecting overall examination quality. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03188172 , Registered on 15 June 2017. CRITICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: Good overall image quality, assessed both qualitatively and quantitatively, can be achieved in a multi-centre whole-body MRI study using the MY-RADS guidelines. KEY POINTS: • A prospective multi-centre WB-MRI study using MY-RADS can be successfully delivered. • Quantitative image quality metrics were developed and correlated with radiological assessment. • SNR in DWI was identified as a significant predictor of quality, allowing for rapid quality adjustment.

Incidence, treatment techniques, and results of distal humeral coronal shear fractures in children and adolescents-a multicenter study of the German Section of Pediatric Traumatology (SKT).

PURPOSE: Distal humeral coronal shear fractures (CSF) are uncommon and may be challenging to treat due to their size, location, and intraarticular nature. The purpose of this study was to analyze treatment concepts of this rare entity in the growing age. METHODS: Based on a multi-center data analysis we retrospectively reviewed patients below 16 years of age with CSF treated at 13 high-volume pediatric trauma centers. RESULTS: Data from 51 patients with a CSF treated between 01/2012 and 12/2021 were analyzed. The mean age was 12.9 years (10-15), and there was a trend towards male patients (30: 21). The initial diagnostic approach was conventional X-ray in all cases. In addition, a CT scan (n = 33), MRI scan (n = 9), or both (n = 3) were performed. All fractures except two showed relevant displacement. Consequently, only two cases received conservative treatment consisting of plaster immobilization. Surgical treatment was performed in 49 cases consisting of open or mini-open reduction and metal/resorbable screw osteosynthesis (n = 39), plates (n = 4), K-wire pinning (n = 6), and others (n = 6), as well as combinations. In 1 case open reduction without osteosynthesis was performed. Postoperative additional plaster immobilization was performed in 40 cases (for a mean of 19 days (2-42)), physiotherapy was initiated in 29 cases, and metal removal was performed in 28 cases (after a mean of 18.1 weeks (4-44)). After a mean follow-up of 9.9 months (2-25), elbow axial deviation (5° valgus) was observed in one case and mild loss of elbow ROM in six cases (11.7%). Complications included revision of the osteosynthesis because of insufficient articular reconstruction (n = 4), removal of a free joint body (n = 1), an osteonecrosis (n = 1), and a cartilage defect (n = 1). CONCLUSION: In pediatric patients CSFs start to occur at the age of 10, but are typically observed at the age of 13 and older. Because of their intraarticular nature and predilection toward displacement, these fractures are frequently treated operatively. The surgical strategy requires open reduction and anatomic reconstruction of the articular surface. Stable internal fixation, most often achieved by screws, permits early mobilization and leads to good outcomes in most cases. This is presumably due to the fact that mostly simple fractures occur in children and mostly complex injuries in older adults. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III, retrospective analysis.

Maintenance lenalidomide in newly diagnosed transplant eligible and non-eligible myeloma patients; profiling second primary malignancies in 4358 patients treated in the Myeloma XI Trial.

Background: Early trials of long-term lenalidomide use reported an increased incidence of second primary malignancy (SPM), including acute myeloid leukaemia and myelodysplastic syndrome. Later, meta-analysis suggested the link to be secondary to lenalidomide in combination with melphalan. Methods: Myeloma XI is a large, phase III randomised trial in-which lenalidomide was used at induction and maintenance, in transplant eligible (TE) and non-eligible (TNE) newly diagnosed patients (NCT01554852). Here we present an analysis of SPM incidence and profile the SPM type to determine the impact of autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) and lenalidomide exposure in 4358 patients treated on study. Data collection took place from the start of the trial in May 2010, to May 2019, as per the protocol timeline. The Median follow-up following maintenance randomisation was 54.5 and 46.1 months for TE and TNE patients, respectively. Findings: In the TE pathway, the overall SPM incidence was 7.7% in lenalidomide maintenance patients compared to 3.2% in those being observed (p = 0.006). Although the TNE lenalidomide maintenance patients had the greatest SPM incidence (15.4%), this was not statistically significant when compared to the observed patients (10%, p = 0.10).The SPM incidence was higher in patients who received lenalidomide at induction and maintenance (double exposure), when compared to those treated with lenalidomide at one time point (single exposure). Again, this was most marked in TNE patients where the overall SPM incidence was 16.9% in double exposed patients, compared to 11.7% in single exposed patients, and 11.2% in patients who did not receive lenalidomide (p = 0.04). This is likely an effect of treatment duration, with the median number of cycles being 27 in the TNE double exposed patients, vs 6 in the single exposure patients.Haematological SPMs were uncommon, diagnosed in 50 patients (incidence 1.1%). The majority of cases were diagnosed in TE patients treated with lenalidomide maintenance (n = 25, incidence 2.8%), suggesting a possible link with melphalan. Non-melanoma skin cancer incidence was highest in patients receiving lenalidomide maintenance, particularly in TNE patients, where squamous cell carcinoma and basal cell carcinoma were diagnosed in 5.5% and 2.6% of patients, respectively. The incidence of most solid tumour types was higher in lenalidomide maintenance patients.Mortality due to progressive myeloma was reduced in patients receiving lenalidomide maintenance, noted to be 16.6% compared 22.6% in those observed in TE patients and 32.7% compared to 41.5% in TNE patients. SPM related mortality was low, 1.8% and 6.1% in TE and TNE lenalidomide maintenance patients, respectively, compared to 0.4% and 2.8% in those being observed. Interpretation: This provides reassurance that long-term lenalidomide treatment is safe and associated with improved outcomes in TE and TNE populations, although monitoring for SPM development should be incorporated into clinic review processes. Funding: Primary financial support was from Cancer Research UK [C1298/A10410].

Daratumumab, Cyclophosphamide, Bortezomib, Lenalidomide, and Dexamethasone as Induction and Extended Consolidation Improves Outcome in Ultra-High-Risk Multiple Myeloma.

PURPOSE: The multicenter OPTIMUM (MUKnine) phase II trial investigated daratumumab, low-dose cyclophosphamide, lenalidomide, bortezomib, and dexamethasone (Dara-CVRd) before and after autologous stem-cell transplant (ASCT) in newly diagnosed patients with molecularly defined ultra-high-risk (UHiR) multiple myeloma (NDMM) or plasma cell leukemia (PCL). To provide clinical context, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were referenced to contemporaneous outcomes seen in patients with UHiR NDMM treated in the recent Myeloma XI (MyeXI) trial. METHODS: Transplant-eligible all-comers NDMM patients were profiled for UHiR disease, defined by presence of ≥2 genetic risk markers t(4;14)/t(14;16)/t(14;20), del(1p), gain(1q), and del(17p), and/or SKY92 gene expression risk signature. Patients with UHiR MM/PCL were offered treatment with Dara-CVRd induction, V-augmented ASCT, extended Dara-VR(d) consolidation, and Dara-R maintenance. UHiR patients treated in MyeXI with carfilzomib, lenalidomide, dexamethasone, and cyclophosphamide, or lenalidomide, dexamethasone, and cyclophosphamide, ASCT, and R maintenance or observation were identified by mirrored molecular screening. OPTIMUM PFS at 18 months (PFS18m) was compared against MyeXI using a Bayesian framework, and patients were followed up to the end of consolidation for PFS and OS. RESULTS: Of 412 screened NDMM OPTIMUM patients, 103 were identified as UHiR or PCL and subsequently treated on trial with Dara-CVRd; 117 MyeXI patients identified as UHiR formed the external comparator arm, with comparable clinical and molecular characteristics to OPTIMUM. Comparison of PFS18m per Bayesian framework resulted in a 99.5% chance of OPTIMUM being superior to MyeXI. At 30 months' follow-up, PFS was 77% for OPTIMUM versus 39.8% for MyeXI, and OS 83.5% versus 73.5%, respectively. Extended post-ASCT Dara-VRd consolidation therapy was highly deliverable, with limited toxicity. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that Dara-CVRd induction and extended post-ASCT Dara-VRd consolidation markedly improve PFS for UHiR NDMM patients over conventional management, supporting further evaluation of this strategy.

Epidemiology and injury morphology of traumatic hip dislocations in children and adolescents in Germany: a multi-centre study.

OBJECTIVE: Traumatic hip dislocations are very rare in childhood and adolescence. The aim of this multi-centre study is to analyse the current epidemiology and injury morphology of a large number of traumatic hip dislocations in children. This can provide a better understanding of childhood hip dislocations and contribute to the development of a therapeutic approach in order to prevent long-term impacts. METHODOLOGY: This retrospective, anonymised multi-centre study included patients, aged up to 17 years, with acute traumatic hip dislocations and open growth plates. The patients came from 16 German hospitals. Exclusion criteria included insufficient data, a positive history of hip dysplasia, or an association with syndromal, neurological or connective tissue diseases predisposing to hip dislocation. An analysis was carried out on the patients' anthropometric data and scans (X-ray, MRI, CT), which were collected between 1979 and 2021. Gender, age at the time of dislocation, associated fractures, mechanism of injury, initial treatment including time between dislocation and reduction, method of reduction, treatment algorithm following reduction and all documented complications and concomitant injuries were evaluated. RESULTS: Seventy-six patients met the inclusion criteria. There were two age peaks at 4-8 years and 11-15 years. There was an increased incidence of girls in the under-eight age group, who had mild trauma, and in the group of over-eights there were more boys, who had moderate and severe trauma. Dorsal dislocation occurred in 89.9% of cases. Mono-injuries dominated across all age groups. Concomitant injuries rarely occurred before the age of eight; however, they increased with increasing ossification of the acetabulum and appeared as avulsion injuries in 32% of 11-15-year-olds. Of the 76 patients, 4 underwent a spontaneous, 67 a closed and 5 a primary open reduction. A reduction was performed within 6 h on 84% of the children; however, in around 10% of cases a reduction was not performed until after 24 h. Concomitant injuries needing intervention were identified in 34 children following reduction. Complications included nerve irritation in the form of sensitivity disorders (n = 6) as well as avascular necrosis (AVN) of the femoral head in 15.8% of the patients (n = 12). CONCLUSIONS: Traumatic hip dislocations are rare in childhood and adolescence and have high complication rates. The most severe complication, femoral head necrosis, occurred in 16% of cases. Minor injuries, especially in younger children, are enough to cause a dislocation. Posterior dislocation was more frequent and primarily occurred as a mono-injury; however, concomitant injuries must be considered with increasing age. Children continue to experience delayed reductions. The length of time until reduction, age and the severity of the concomitant injury play a role in the development of femoral head necrosis; however, this topic requires additional investigation.

Risk factors for eight common cancers revealed from a phenome-wide Mendelian randomisation analysis of 378,142 cases and 485,715 controls.

For many cancers there are few well-established risk factors. Summary data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) can be used in a Mendelian randomisation (MR) phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to identify causal relationships. We performed a MR-PheWAS of breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, endometrial, oesophageal, renal, and ovarian cancers, comprising 378,142 cases and 485,715 controls. To derive a more comprehensive insight into disease aetiology we systematically mined the literature space for supporting evidence. We evaluated causal relationships for over 3,000 potential risk factors. In addition to identifying well-established risk factors (smoking, alcohol, obesity, lack of physical activity), we provide evidence for specific factors, including dietary intake, sex steroid hormones, plasma lipids and telomere length as determinants of cancer risk. We also implicate molecular factors including plasma levels of IL-18, LAG-3, IGF-1, CT-1, and PRDX1 as risk factors. Our analyses highlight the importance of risk factors that are common to many cancer types but also reveal aetiological differences. A number of the molecular factors we identify have the potential to be biomarkers. Our findings should aid public health prevention strategies to reduce cancer burden. We provide a R/Shiny app (https://mrcancer.shinyapps.io/mrcan/) to visualise findings.

Risk factors for eight common cancers revealed from a phenome-wide Mendelian randomisation analysis of 378,142 cases and 485,715 controls.

For many cancers there are few well-established risk factors. Summary data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) can be used in a Mendelian randomisation (MR) phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to identify causal relationships. We performed a MR-PheWAS of breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, endometrial, oesophageal, renal, and ovarian cancers, comprising 378,142 cases and 485,715 controls. To derive a more comprehensive insight into disease aetiology we systematically mined the literature space for supporting evidence. We evaluated causal relationships for over 3,000 potential risk factors. In addition to identifying well-established risk factors (smoking, alcohol, obesity, lack of physical activity), we provide evidence for specific factors, including dietary intake, sex steroid hormones, plasma lipids and telomere length as determinants of cancer risk. We also implicate molecular factors including plasma levels of IL-18, LAG-3, IGF-1, CT-1, and PRDX1 as risk factors. Our analyses highlight the importance of risk factors that are common to many cancer types but also reveal aetiological differences. A number of the molecular factors we identify have the potential to be biomarkers. Our findings should aid public health prevention strategies to reduce cancer burden. We provide a R/Shiny app (https://mrcancer.shinyapps.io/mrcan/) to visualise findings.