A New Type 2 Diabetes Microsimulation Model to Estimate Long-Term Health Outcomes, Costs, and Cost-Effectiveness.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop a microsimulation model to estimate the health effects, costs, and cost-effectiveness of public health and clinical interventions for preventing/managing type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We combined newly developed equations for complications, mortality, risk factor progression, patient utility, and cost-all based on US studies-in a microsimulation model. We performed internal and external validation of the model. To demonstrate the model's utility, we predicted remaining life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and lifetime medical cost for a representative cohort of 10 000 US adults with type 2 diabetes. We then estimated the cost-effectiveness of reducing hemoglobin A1c from 9% to 7% among adults with type 2 diabetes, using low-cost, generic, oral medications. RESULTS: The model performed well in internal validation; the average absolute difference between simulated and observed incidence for 17 complications was < 8%. In external validation, the model was better at predicting outcomes in clinical trials than in observational studies. The cohort of US adults with type 2 diabetes was projected to have an average of 19.95 remaining life-years (from mean age 61), incur $187 729 in discounted medical costs, and accrue 8.79 discounted QALYs. The intervention to reduce hemoglobin A1c increased medical costs by $1256 and QALYs by 0.39, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $9103 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Using equations exclusively derived from US studies, this new microsimulation model achieves good prediction accuracy in US populations. The model can be used to estimate the long-term health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of interventions for type 2 diabetes in the United States.

Deceased Donor Kidney Transplantation for Older Transplant Candidates: A New Microsimulation Model for Determining Risks and Benefits.

BACKGROUND: Under the current US kidney allocation system, older candidates receive a disproportionately small share of deceased donor kidneys despite a reserve of potentially usable kidneys that could shorten their wait times. To consider potential health gains from increasing access to kidneys for these candidates, we developed and calibrated a microsimulation model of the transplantation process and long-term outcomes for older deceased donor kidney transplant candidates. METHODS: We estimated risk equations for transplant outcomes using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR), which contains data on all US transplants (2010-2019). A microsimulation model combined these equations to account for competing events. We calibrated the model to key transplant outcomes and used acceptance sampling, retaining the best-fitting 100 parameter sets. We then examined life expectancy gains from allocating kidneys even of lower quality across patient subgroups defined by age and designated race/ethnicity. RESULTS: The best-fitting 100 parameter sets (among 4,000,000 sampled) enabled our model to closely match key transplant outcomes. The model demonstrated clear survival benefits for those who receive a deceased donor kidney, even a lower quality one, compared with remaining on the waitlist where there is a risk of removal. The expected gain in survival from receiving a lower quality donor kidney was consistent gains across age and race/ethnic subgroups. LIMITATIONS: Limited available data on socioeconomic factors. CONCLUSIONS: Our microsimulation model accurately replicates a range of key kidney transplant outcomes among older candidates and demonstrates that older candidates may derive substantial benefits from transplantation with lower quality kidneys. This model can be used to evaluate policies that have been proposed to address concerns that the current system disincentivizes deceased donor transplants for older patients. HIGHLIGHTS: The microsimulation model was consistent with the data after calibration and accurately simulated the transplantation process for older deceased donor kidney transplant candidates.There are clear survival benefits for older transplant candidates who receive deceased donor kidneys, even lower quality ones, compared with remaining on the waitlist.This model can be used to evaluate policies aimed at increasing transplantation among older candidates.

Racial Disparities in Pediatric Kidney Transplantation under the New Kidney Allocation System in the United States.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In December 2014, the Kidney Allocation System (KAS) was implemented to improve equity in access to transplantation, but preliminary studies in children show mixed results. Thus, we aimed to assess how the 2014 KAS policy change affected racial and ethnic disparities in pediatric kidney transplantation access and related outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of children <18 years of age active on the kidney transplant list from 2008 to 2019 using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. Log-logistic accelerated failure time models were used to determine the time from first activation on the transplant list and the time on dialysis to deceased donor transplant, each with KAS era or race and ethnicity as the exposure of interest. We used logistic regression to assess odds of delayed graft function. Log-rank tests assessed time to graft loss within racial and ethnic groups across KAS eras. RESULTS: All children experienced longer wait times from activation to transplantation post-KAS. In univariable analysis, Black and Hispanic children and other children of color experienced longer times from activation to transplant compared with White children in both eras; this finding was largely attenuated after multivariable analysis (time ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 1.32; time ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.28; and time ratio, 1.17; 95% confidence interval, 0.96 to 1.41 post-KAS, respectively). Multivariable analysis also showed that racial and ethnic disparities in time from dialysis initiation to transplantation in the pre-KAS era were mitigated in the post-KAS era. There were no disparities in odds of delayed graft function. Black and Hispanic children experienced longer times with a functioning graft in the post-KAS era. CONCLUSIONS: No racial and ethnic disparities from activation to deceased donor transplantation were seen before or after implementation of the KAS in multivariable analysis, whereas time on dialysis to transplantation and odds of short-term graft loss improved in equity after the implementation of the KAS, without compromising disparities in delayed graft function. PODCAST: This article contains a podcast at https://www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2021_12_07_CJN06740521.mp3.