The American Cancer Society National Lung Cancer Roundtable strategic plan: Introduction.

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in the United States and across the world. The American Cancer Society National Lung Cancer Roundtable (ACS NLCRT) was established in 2017 as a consortium of public, private, and voluntary organizations with a mission to lower the impact of lung cancer via prevention, early detection, and optimal therapy. The ACS NLCRT supports a comprehensive scope of work that covers the lung cancer continuum, from risk reduction, tobacco prevention and control, and early detection (screening and incidental lung nodule management) to guideline-based staging, biomarker testing, treatment, and survivorship and overarching issues such as stigma and nihilism, health equity, and tactical approaches such as state coalition efforts and policy initiatives. Applying a multidimensional and multisector approach, over 220 public, private, and government agency member organizations and 250 volunteer experts, patients, and caregiver advocate representatives collaborate to address challenges across the lung cancer continuum by catalyzing action to conceive, build, and strengthen innovative solutions. The wide-ranging membership allows the ACS NLCRT to harness the collective power and expertise of the entire lung cancer community by connecting leaders, communities, and systems to improve equity and access. These national, state, and local relationships provide partnerships for the dissemination of ACS NLCRT-developed tools and resources. This article describes the ACS NLCRT and introduces the series of accompanying and future articles that together make up the ACS NLCRT strategic plan, which provides a roadmap for future research, investment, and collaboration to reduce lung cancer mortality and lung cancer-related stigma and enhance survivorship.

The American Cancer Society National Lung Cancer Roundtable strategic plan: Provider engagement and outreach.

The American Cancer Society National Lung Cancer Roundtable strategic plan for provider engagement and outreach addresses barriers to the uptake of lung cancer screening, including lack of provider awareness and guideline knowledge about screening, concerns about potential harms from false-positive examinations, lack of time to implement workflows within busy primary care practices, insufficient infrastructure and administrative support to manage a screening program and patient follow-up, and implicit bias based on sex, race/ethnicity, social class, and smoking status. Strategies to facilitate screening include educational programming, clinical reminder systems within the electronic medical record, decision support aids, and tools to track nodules that can be implemented across a diversity of practices and health care organizational structures. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: The American Cancer Society National Lung Cancer Roundtable strategic plan to reduce deaths from lung cancer includes strategies designed to support health care professionals, to better understand lung cancer screening, and to support adults who are eligible for lung cancer screening by providing counseling, referral, and follow-up.

The American Cancer Society National Lung Cancer Roundtable strategic plan: Implementation of high-quality lung cancer screening.

More than a decade has passed since researchers in the Early Lung Cancer Action Project and the National Lung Screening Trial demonstrated the ability to save lives of high-risk individuals from lung cancer through regular screening by low dose computed tomography scan. The emergence of the most recent findings in the Dutch-Belgian lung-cancer screening trial (Nederlands-Leuvens Longkanker Screenings Onderzoek [NELSON]) further strengthens and expands on this evidence. These studies demonstrate the benefit of integrating lung cancer screening into clinical practice, yet lung cancer continues to lead cancer mortality rates in the United States. Fewer than 20% of screen eligible individuals are enrolled in lung cancer screening, leaving millions of qualified individuals without the standard of care and benefit they deserve. This article, part of the American Cancer Society National Lung Cancer Roundtable (ACS NLCRT) strategic plan, examines the impediments to successful adoption, dissemination, and implementation of lung cancer screening. Proposed solutions identified by the ACS NLCRT Implementation Strategies Task Group and work currently underway to address these challenges to improve uptake of lung cancer screening are discussed. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: The evidence supporting the benefit of lung cancer screening in adults who previously or currently smoke has led to widespread endorsement and coverage by health plans. Lung cancer screening programs should be designed to promote high uptake rates of screening among eligible adults, and to deliver high-quality screening and follow-up care.

Temporal Exploration of COPD Phenotypes: Insights from the COPDGene and SPIROMICS Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exhibits considerable progression heterogeneity. We hypothesized that elastic principal graph analysis (EPGA) would identify distinct clinical phenotypes and their longitudinal relationships. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from 8,972 tobacco-exposed COPDGene participants, with and without COPD, were used to train a model with EPGA, using thirty clinical, physiologic and CT features. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to reduce data dimensionality to six principal components. An elastic principal tree was fitted to the reduced space. 4,585 participants from COPDGene Phase 2 were used to test longitudinal trajectories. 2,652 participants from SPIROMICS tested external reproducibility. RESULTS: Our analysis used cross-sectional data to create an elastic principal tree, where the concept of time is represented by distance on the tree. Six clinically distinct tree segments were identified that differed by lung function, symptoms, and CT features: 1) Subclinical (SC); 2) Parenchymal Abnormality (PA); 3) Chronic Bronchitis (CB); 4) Emphysema Male (EM); 5) Emphysema Female (EF); and 6) Severe Airways (SA) disease. Cross-sectional SPIROMICS data confirmed similar groupings. 5-year data from COPDGene mapped longitudinal changes onto the tree. 29% of patients changed segment during follow-up; longitudinal trajectories confirmed a net flow of patients along the tree, from SC towards Emphysema, although alternative trajectories were noted, through airway disease predominant phenotypes, CB and SA. CONCLUSION: This novel analytic methodology provides an approach to defining longitudinal phenotypic trajectories using cross sectional data. These insights are clinically relevant and could facilitate precision therapy and future trials to modify disease progression.

From the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer Early Detection and Screening Committee: Terminology Issues in Screening and Early Detection of Lung Cancer-International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer Early Detection and Screening Committee Expert Group Recommendations.

INTRODUCTION: To facilitate global implementation of lung cancer (LC) screening and early detection in a quality assured and consistent manner, common terminology is needed. Researchers and clinicians within different specialties may use the same terms but with different meanings or different terms for the same intended meanings. METHODS: The Diagnostics Working Group of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer Early Detection and Screening Committee has analyzed and discussed relevant terms used on a regular basis and suggests recommendations for consensus definitions of terminology applicable in this setting. We explored how to reach consensus to define relevant and unambiguous terminology for use by health care providers, researchers, patients, screening participants, and family. RESULTS: Terms and definitions for epidemiologic and health-economical purposes included the following: standardized incidence and mortality rates, LC-specific survival, long-term survival and cure rates, overdiagnosis, overtreatment, and undertreatment. Terms and definitions for defining screening findings included the following: positive, false-positive, negative, false-negative, and indeterminate findings and additional and incidental findings. Terms and definitions for describing parameters in screening programs included the following: opportunistic versus programmatic screening, screening rounds, interval or interim diagnoses, and invasive and minimally invasive procedures. Terms and definitions for shared decision-making included the following: LC screening-possible harms and risks and LC risk and modifiers prior and posterior to a measure. CONCLUSIONS: A common set of terminology with standard definitions is recommended for describing clinical LC screening programs, the discussion about effectiveness and outcomes, or the clinical setting. The use of the terms should be clearly defined and explained.

Association of Ground Glass Opacities with Systemic Inflammation and Progression of Emphysema.

RATIONAL: Ground glass opacities (GGO) in the absence of interstitial lung disease are understudied. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of GGO with white blood cells (WBCs) and progression of quantified chest CT emphysema. METHODS: We analyzed data of participants in the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures In COPD Study (SPIROMICS). Chest radiologists and pulmonologists labeled regions of the lung as GGO and adaptive multiple feature method (AMFM) trained the computer to assign those labels to image voxels and quantify the volume of the lung with GGO (%GGOAMFM). We used multivariable linear regression, zero-inflated negative binomial, and proportional hazards regression models to assess the association of %GGOAMFM with WBC, changes in %emphysema, and clinical outcomes. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 2,714 participants, 1,680 had COPD and 1,034 had normal spirometry. Among COPD participants, based on the multivariable analysis, current smoking and chronic productive cough was associated with higher %GGOAMFM. Higher %GGOAMFM was cross-sectionally associated with higher WBCs and neutrophils levels. Higher %GGOAMFM per interquartile range at visit 1 (baseline) was associated with an increase in emphysema at one-year follow visit by 11.7% (Relative increase; 95%CI 7.5-16.1%;P<0.001). We found no association between %GGOAMFM and one-year FEV1 decline but %GGOAMFM was associated with exacerbations and all-cause mortality during a median follow-up time of 1,544 days (Interquartile Interval=1,118-2,059). Among normal spirometry participants, we found similar results except that %GGOAMFM was associated with progression to COPD at one-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that GGOAMFM is associated with increased systemic inflammation and emphysema progression.

Clinically Relevant Biomarkers in Connective Tissue Disease-Associated Interstitial Lung Disease.

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) complicates connective tissue disease (CTD) with variable incidence and is a leading cause of death in these patients. To improve CTD-ILD outcomes, early recognition and management of ILD is critical. Blood-based and radiologic biomarkers that assist in the diagnosis CTD-ILD have long been studied. Recent studies, including -omic investigations, have also begun to identify biomarkers that may help prognosticate such patients. This review provides an overview of clinically relevant biomarkers in patients with CTD-ILD, highlighting recent advances to assist in the diagnosis and prognostication of CTD-ILD.

Enhancing Early Lung Cancer Diagnosis: Predicting Lung Nodule Progression in Follow-Up Low-Dose CT Scan with Deep Generative Model.

Early diagnosis of lung cancer can significantly improve patient outcomes. We developed a Growth Predictive model based on the Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network framework (GP-WGAN) to predict the nodule growth patterns in the follow-up LDCT scans. The GP-WGAN was trained with a training set (N = 776) containing 1121 pairs of nodule images with about 1-year intervals and deployed to an independent test set of 450 nodules on baseline LDCT scans to predict nodule images (GP-nodules) in their 1-year follow-up scans. The 450 GP-nodules were finally classified as malignant or benign by a lung cancer risk prediction (LCRP) model, achieving a test AUC of 0.827 ± 0.028, which was comparable to the AUC of 0.862 ± 0.028 achieved by the same LCRP model classifying real follow-up nodule images (p = 0.071). The net reclassification index yielded consistent outcomes (NRI = 0.04; p = 0.62). Other baseline methods, including Lung-RADS and the Brock model, achieved significantly lower performance (p < 0.05). The results demonstrated that the GP-nodules predicted by our GP-WGAN model achieved comparable performance with the nodules in the real follow-up scans for lung cancer diagnosis, indicating the potential to detect lung cancer earlier when coupled with accelerated clinical management versus the current approach of waiting until the next screening exam.

Leveraging Serial Low-Dose CT Scans in Radiomics-based Reinforcement Learning to Improve Early Diagnosis of Lung Cancer at Baseline Screening.

Purpose To evaluate the feasibility of leveraging serial low-dose CT (LDCT) scans to develop a radiomics-based reinforcement learning (RRL) model for improving early diagnosis of lung cancer at baseline screening. Materials and Methods In this retrospective study, 1951 participants (female patients, 822; median age, 61 years [range, 55-74 years]) (male patients, 1129; median age, 62 years [range, 55-74 years]) were randomly selected from the National Lung Screening Trial between August 2002 and April 2004. An RRL model using serial LDCT scans (S-RRL) was trained and validated using data from 1404 participants (372 with lung cancer) containing 2525 available serial LDCT scans up to 3 years. A baseline RRL (B-RRL) model was trained with only LDCT scans acquired at baseline screening for comparison. The 547 held-out individuals (150 with lung cancer) were used as an independent test set for performance evaluation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the net reclassification index (NRI) were used to assess the performances of the models in the classification of screen-detected nodules. Results Deployment to the held-out baseline scans showed that the S-RRL model achieved a significantly higher test AUC (0.88 [95% CI: 0.85, 0.91]) than both the Brock model (AUC, 0.84 [95% CI: 0.81, 0.88]; P = .02) and the B-RRL model (AUC, 0.86 [95% CI: 0.83, 0.90]; P = .02). Lung cancer risk stratification was significantly improved by the S-RRL model as compared with Lung CT Screening Reporting and Data System (NRI, 0.29; P < .001) and the Brock model (NRI, 0.12; P = .008). Conclusion The S-RRL model demonstrated the potential to improve early diagnosis and risk stratification for lung cancer at baseline screening as compared with the B-RRL model and clinical models. Keywords: Radiomics-based Reinforcement Learning, Lung Cancer Screening, Low-Dose CT, Machine Learning © RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article.

Progressive Pulmonary Fibrosis and Interstitial Lung Abnormalities: AJR Expert Panel Narrative Review.

Progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) and interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA) are relatively new concepts in interstitial lung disease (ILD) imaging and clinical management. Recognition of signs of PPF, as well as identification and classification of ILA, are important tasks during chest high-resolution CT interpretation, to optimize management of patients with ILD and those at risk of developing ILD. However, following professional society guidance, the role of imaging surveillance remains unclear in stable patients with ILD, asymptomatic patients with ILA who are at risk of progression, and asymptomatic patients at risk of developing ILD without imaging abnormalities. In this AJR Expert Panel Narrative Review, we summarize the current knowledge regarding PPF and ILA and describe the range of clinical practice with respect to imaging patients with ILD, those with ILA, and those at risk of developing ILD. In addition, we offer suggestions to help guide surveillance imaging in areas with an absence of published guidelines, where such decisions are currently driven primarily by local pulmonologists' preference.

Local heterogeneity of normal lung parenchyma and small airways disease are associated with COPD severity and progression.

BACKGROUND: Small airways disease (SAD) is a major cause of airflow obstruction in COPD patients and has been identified as a precursor to emphysema. Although the amount of SAD in the lungs can be quantified using our Parametric Response Mapping (PRM) approach, the full breadth of this readout as a measure of emphysema and COPD progression has yet to be explored. We evaluated topological features of PRM-derived normal parenchyma and SAD as surrogates of emphysema and predictors of spirometric decline. METHODS: PRM metrics of normal lung (PRMNorm) and functional SAD (PRMfSAD) were generated from CT scans collected as part of the COPDGene study (n = 8956). Volume density (V) and Euler-Poincaré Characteristic (χ) image maps, measures of the extent and coalescence of pocket formations (i.e., topologies), respectively, were determined for both PRMNorm and PRMfSAD. Association with COPD severity, emphysema, and spirometric measures were assessed via multivariable regression models. Readouts were evaluated as inputs for predicting FEV1 decline using a machine learning model. RESULTS: Multivariable cross-sectional analysis of COPD subjects showed that V and χ measures for PRMfSAD and PRMNorm were independently associated with the amount of emphysema. Readouts χfSAD (ß of 0.106, p < 0.001) and VfSAD (ß of 0.065, p = 0.004) were also independently associated with FEV1% predicted. The machine learning model using PRM topologies as inputs predicted FEV1 decline over five years with an AUC of 0.69. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that V and χ of fSAD and Norm have independent value when associated with lung function and emphysema. In addition, we demonstrated that these readouts are predictive of spirometric decline when used as inputs in a ML model. Our topological PRM approach using PRMfSAD and PRMNorm may show promise as an early indicator of emphysema onset and COPD progression.

Meaningful Endpoints for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) Clinical Trials: Emphasis on 'Feels, Functions, Survives'. Report of a Collaborative Discussion in a Symposium with Direct Engagement from Representatives of Patients, Investigators, the National Institutes of Health, a Patient Advocacy Organization, and a Regulatory Agency.

Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) carries significant mortality and unpredictable progression, with limited therapeutic options. Designing trials with patient-meaningful endpoints, enhancing the reliability and interpretability of results, and streamlining the regulatory approval process are of critical importance to advancing clinical care in IPF. Methods: A landmark in-person symposium in June 2023 assembled 43 participants from the US and internationally, including patients with IPF, investigators, and regulatory representatives, to discuss the immediate future of IPF clinical trial endpoints. Patient advocates were central to discussions, which evaluated endpoints according to regulatory standards and the FDA's 'feels, functions, survives' criteria. Results: Three themes emerged: 1) consensus on endpoints mirroring the lived experiences of patients with IPF; 2) consideration of replacing forced vital capacity (FVC) as the primary endpoint, potentially by composite endpoints that include 'feels, functions, survives' measures or FVC as components; 3) support for simplified, user-friendly patient-reported outcomes (PROs) as either components of primary composite endpoints or key secondary endpoints, supplemented by functional tests as secondary endpoints and novel biomarkers as supportive measures (FDA Guidance for Industry (Multiple Endpoints in Clinical Trials) available at: https://www.fda.gov/media/162416/download). Conclusions: This report, detailing the proceedings of this pivotal symposium, suggests a potential turning point in designing future IPF clinical trials more attuned to outcomes meaningful to patients, and documents the collective agreement across multidisciplinary stakeholders on the importance of anchoring IPF trial endpoints on real patient experiences-namely, how they feel, function, and survive. There is considerable optimism that clinical care in IPF will progress through trials focused on patient-centric insights, ultimately guiding transformative treatment strategies to enhance patients' quality of life and survival.

Topologic Parametric Response Mapping Identifies Tissue Subtypes Associated with Emphysema Progression.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: Small airways disease (SAD) and emphysema are significant components of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a heterogenous disease where predicting progression is difficult. SAD, a principal cause of airflow obstruction in mild COPD, has been identified as a precursor to emphysema. Parametric Response Mapping (PRM) of chest computed tomography (CT) can help distinguish SAD from emphysema. Specifically, topologic PRM can define local patterns of both diseases to characterize how and in whom COPD progresses. We aimed to determine if distribution of CT-based PRM of functional SAD (fSAD) is associated with emphysema progression. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed paired inspiratory-expiratory chest CT scans at baseline and 5-year follow up in 1495 COPDGene subjects using topological analyses of PRM classifications. By spatially aligning temporal scans, we mapped local emphysema at year five to baseline lobar PRM-derived topological readouts. K-means clustering was applied to all observations. Subjects were subtyped based on predominant PRM cluster assignments and assessed using non-parametric statistical tests to determine differences in PRM values, pulmonary function metrics, and clinical measures. RESULTS: We identified distinct lobar imaging patterns and classified subjects into three radiologic subtypes: emphysema-dominant (ED), fSAD-dominant (FD), and fSAD-transition (FT: transition from healthy lung to fSAD). Relative to year five emphysema, FT showed rapid local emphysema progression (-57.5% ± 1.1) compared to FD (-49.9% ± 0.5) and ED (-33.1% ± 0.4). FT consisted primarily of at-risk subjects (roughly 60%) with normal spirometry. CONCLUSION: The FT subtype of COPD may allow earlier identification of individuals without spirometrically-defined COPD at-risk for developing emphysema.

Current and Future Perspectives on Computed Tomography Screening for Lung Cancer: A Roadmap From 2023 to 2027 From the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer.

Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening for lung cancer substantially reduces mortality from lung cancer, as revealed in randomized controlled trials and meta-analyses. This review is based on the ninth CT screening symposium of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer, which focuses on the major themes pertinent to the successful global implementation of LDCT screening and develops a strategy to further the implementation of lung cancer screening globally. These recommendations provide a 5-year roadmap to advance the implementation of LDCT screening globally, including the following: (1) establish universal screening program quality indicators; (2) establish evidence-based criteria to identify individuals who have never smoked but are at high-risk of developing lung cancer; (3) develop recommendations for incidentally detected lung nodule tracking and management protocols to complement programmatic lung cancer screening; (4) Integrate artificial intelligence and biomarkers to increase the prediction of malignancy in suspicious CT screen-detected lesions; and (5) standardize high-quality performance artificial intelligence protocols that lead to substantial reductions in costs, resource utilization and radiologist reporting time; (6) personalize CT screening intervals on the basis of an individual's lung cancer risk; (7) develop evidence to support clinical management and cost-effectiveness of other identified abnormalities on a lung cancer screening CT; (8) develop publicly accessible, easy-to-use geospatial tools to plan and monitor equitable access to screening services; and (9) establish a global shared education resource for lung cancer screening CT to ensure high-quality reading and reporting.

Measuring the Impact of AI in the Diagnosis of Hospitalized Patients: A Randomized Clinical Vignette Survey Study.

Importance: Artificial intelligence (AI) could support clinicians when diagnosing hospitalized patients; however, systematic bias in AI models could worsen clinician diagnostic accuracy. Recent regulatory guidance has called for AI models to include explanations to mitigate errors made by models, but the effectiveness of this strategy has not been established. Objectives: To evaluate the impact of systematically biased AI on clinician diagnostic accuracy and to determine if image-based AI model explanations can mitigate model errors. Design, Setting, and Participants: Randomized clinical vignette survey study administered between April 2022 and January 2023 across 13 US states involving hospitalist physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants. Interventions: Clinicians were shown 9 clinical vignettes of patients hospitalized with acute respiratory failure, including their presenting symptoms, physical examination, laboratory results, and chest radiographs. Clinicians were then asked to determine the likelihood of pneumonia, heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as the underlying cause(s) of each patient's acute respiratory failure. To establish baseline diagnostic accuracy, clinicians were shown 2 vignettes without AI model input. Clinicians were then randomized to see 6 vignettes with AI model input with or without AI model explanations. Among these 6 vignettes, 3 vignettes included standard-model predictions, and 3 vignettes included systematically biased model predictions. Main Outcomes and Measures: Clinician diagnostic accuracy for pneumonia, heart failure, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Results: Median participant age was 34 years (IQR, 31-39) and 241 (57.7%) were female. Four hundred fifty-seven clinicians were randomized and completed at least 1 vignette, with 231 randomized to AI model predictions without explanations, and 226 randomized to AI model predictions with explanations. Clinicians' baseline diagnostic accuracy was 73.0% (95% CI, 68.3% to 77.8%) for the 3 diagnoses. When shown a standard AI model without explanations, clinician accuracy increased over baseline by 2.9 percentage points (95% CI, 0.5 to 5.2) and by 4.4 percentage points (95% CI, 2.0 to 6.9) when clinicians were also shown AI model explanations. Systematically biased AI model predictions decreased clinician accuracy by 11.3 percentage points (95% CI, 7.2 to 15.5) compared with baseline and providing biased AI model predictions with explanations decreased clinician accuracy by 9.1 percentage points (95% CI, 4.9 to 13.2) compared with baseline, representing a nonsignificant improvement of 2.3 percentage points (95% CI, -2.7 to 7.2) compared with the systematically biased AI model. Conclusions and Relevance: Although standard AI models improve diagnostic accuracy, systematically biased AI models reduced diagnostic accuracy, and commonly used image-based AI model explanations did not mitigate this harmful effect. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT06098950.

RadioGraphics Update: Lung-RADS 2022.

Editor's Note.-RadioGraphics Update articles supplement or update information found in full-length articles previously published in RadioGraphics. These updates, written by at least one author of the previous article, provide a brief synopsis that emphasizes important new information such as technological advances, revised imaging protocols, new clinical guidelines involving imaging, or updated classification schemes.

Quantitative CT of Normal Lung Parenchyma and Small Airways Disease Topologies are Associated With COPD Severity and Progression.

Objectives: Small airways disease (SAD) is a major cause of airflow obstruction in COPD patients, and has been identified as a precursor to emphysema. Although the amount of SAD in the lungs can be quantified using our Parametric Response Mapping (PRM) approach, the full breadth of this readout as a measure of emphysema and COPD progression has yet to be explored. We evaluated topological features of PRM-derived normal parenchyma and SAD as surrogates of emphysema and predictors of spirometric decline. Materials and Methods: PRM metrics of normal lung (PRMNorm) and functional SAD (PRMfSAD) were generated from CT scans collected as part of the COPDGene study (n=8956). Volume density (V) and Euler-Poincaré Characteristic (χ) image maps, measures of the extent and coalescence of pocket formations (i.e., topologies), respectively, were determined for both PRMNorm and PRMfSAD. Association with COPD severity, emphysema, and spirometric measures were assessed via multivariable regression models. Readouts were evaluated as inputs for predicting FEV1 decline using a machine learning model. Results: Multivariable cross-sectional analysis of COPD subjects showed that V and χ measures for PRMfSAD and PRMNorm were independently associated with the amount of emphysema. Readouts χfSAD (ß of 0.106, p<0.001) and VfSAD (ß of 0.065, p=0.004) were also independently associated with FEV1% predicted. The machine learning model using PRM topologies as inputs predicted FEV1 decline over five years with an AUC of 0.69. Conclusions: We demonstrated that V and χ of fSAD and Norm have independent value when associated with lung function and emphysema. In addition, we demonstrated that these readouts are predictive of spirometric decline when used as inputs in a ML model. Our topological PRM approach using PRMfSAD and PRMNorm may show promise as an early indicator of emphysema onset and COPD progression.

Causes of and Clinical Features Associated with Death in Tobacco Cigarette Users by Lung Function Impairment.

Rationale: Cigarette smoking contributes to the risk of death through different mechanisms. Objectives: To determine how causes of and clinical features associated with death vary in tobacco cigarette users by lung function impairment. Methods: We stratified current and former tobacco cigarette users enrolled in Genetic Epidemiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPDGene) into normal spirometry, PRISm (Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry), Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 1-2 COPD, and GOLD 3-4 COPD. Deaths were identified via longitudinal follow-up and Social Security Death Index search. Causes of death were adjudicated after a review of death certificates, medical records, and next-of-kin interviews. We tested associations between baseline clinical variables and all-cause mortality using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Measurements and Main Results: Over a 10.1-year median follow-up, 2,200 deaths occurred among 10,132 participants (age 59.5 ± 9.0 yr; 46.6% women). Death from cardiovascular disease was most frequent in PRISm (31% of deaths). Lung cancer deaths were most frequent in GOLD 1-2 (18% of deaths vs. 9-11% in other groups). Respiratory deaths outpaced competing causes of death in GOLD 3-4, particularly when BODE index ⩾7. St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire score ⩾25 was associated with higher mortality in all groups: Hazard ratio (HR), 1.48 (1.20-1.84) normal spirometry; HR, 1.40 (1.05-1.87) PRISm; HR, 1.80 (1.49-2.17) GOLD 1-2; HR, 1.65 (1.26-2.17) GOLD 3-4. History of respiratory exacerbations was associated with higher mortality in GOLD 1-2 and GOLD 3-4, quantitative emphysema in GOLD 1-2, and airway wall thickness in PRISm and GOLD 3-4. Conclusions: Leading causes of death vary by lung function impairment in tobacco cigarette users. Worse respiratory-related quality of life is associated with all-cause mortality regardless of lung function.