Considerations and targeted approaches to identifying bad actors in exposure mixtures.

Variable importance is a key statistical issue in exposure mixtures, as it allows a ranking of exposures as potential targets for intervention, and helps to identify bad actors within a mixture. In settings where mixtures have many constituents or high between-constituent correlations, estimators of importance can be subject to bias or high variance. Current approaches to assessing variable importance have major limitations, including reliance on overly strong or incorrect constraints or assumptions, excessive model extrapolation, or poor interpretability, especially regarding practical significance. We sought to overcome these limitations by applying an established doubly-robust, machine learning-based approach to estimating variable importance in a mixtures context. This method reduces model extrapolation, appropriately controls confounding, and provides both interpretability and model flexibility. We illustrate its use with an evaluation of the relationship between telomere length, a measure of biologic aging, and exposure to a mixture of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dioxins, and furans among 979 US adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). In contrast with standard approaches for mixtures, our approach selected PCB 180 and PCB 194 as important contributors to telomere length. We hypothesize that this difference could be due to residual confounding in standard methods that rely on variable selection. Further empirical evaluation of this method is needed, but it is a promising tool in the search for bad actors within a mixture.

The impact of modified incision height and surgical procedure on trichiasis surgery outcomes: Results of the maximizing trichiasis surgery success (MTSS) randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Poor surgical outcomes remain a problem in trachoma-endemic countries working to reach elimination thresholds. Methods to improve outcomes could positively impact programmatic success. METHODS: This parallel, three-armed clinical trial conducted in Ethiopia randomized individuals with previously unoperated trachomatous trichiasis (TT) to receive surgery utilizing one of three approaches: bilamellar tarsal rotation with a 3 mm incision height (BLTR-3), BLTR with 5 mm incision height (BLTR-5) and posterior lamellar tarsal rotation (PLTR). We followed participants for one year. The primary outcome was post-operative trichiasis (PTT). Secondary outcomes were eyelid contour abnormalities (ECA) and pyogenic granulomata. FINDINGS: We randomized and operated on 4,914 individuals with previously unoperated TT (6,940 eyes). Primary analyses include 6,815 eyes with follow-up. Overall, 1,149 (16.9%) eyes developed PTT. The risk difference for PTT was minimal comparing BLTR-3 and PLTR (adjusted risk difference [aRD] 1.8% (98.3%CI: -0.5-4.2%)), but significantly higher for BLTR-5 surgeries compared to BLTR-3 (aRD: 6.7% (3.9-9.4%)) and PLTR (aRD: 8.6% (5.9-11.3%)). BLTR-5 had the lowest ECA (6.1% versus 9.6% BLTR-3, 11.2% PLTR) and granuloma rates (5.2% versus 6.5% BLTR-3 and 7.5% PLTR). One eyelid operated with PLTR experienced an eyelid margin division; four BLTR-3 and eight BLTR-5 eyelids experienced excessive bleeding. INTERPRETATION: We do not recommend modifying the BLTR incision height of 3 mm. Overall, we did not find a significant difference in PTT between BLTR-3 and PLTR in terms of PTT or ECA. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registration number: NCT03100747; ClinicalTrials.gov Full study protocol available at (https://doi.org/10.15139/S3/QHZXWD).

Inverse Probability Weighting to Estimate Impacts of Hypothetical Occupational Limits on Radon Exposure to Reduce Lung Cancer.

Radon is a known cause of lung cancer. Protective standards for radon exposure are derived largely from studies of working populations that are prone to healthy worker survivor bias. This bias can lead to under-protection of workers and is a key barrier to understanding health effects of many exposures. We apply inverse probability weighting to study a set of hypothetical exposure limits among 4,137 male, White and American Indian radon-exposed uranium miners in the Colorado Plateau followed from 1950 to 2005. We estimate cumulative risk of lung cancer through age 90 under hypothetical occupational limits. We estimate that earlier implementation of the current US Mining Safety and Health Administration annual standard of 4 working level months (implemented here as a monthly exposure limit) could have reduced lung cancer mortality from 16/100 workers to 6/100 workers (95% confidence intervals: 3/100, 8/100), in contrast with previous estimates of 10/100 workers. Our estimate is similar to that among contemporaneous occupational cohorts. Inverse probability weighting is a simple and computationally efficient way address healthy worker survivor bias in order to contrast health effects of exposure limits and estimate the number of excess health outcomes under exposure limits at work.

Spatiotemporal Trends of Birth Defects in North Carolina, 2003-2015.

Birth defects are a leading cause of infant mortality in the United States, but little is known about causes of many types of birth defects. Spatiotemporal disease mapping to identify high-prevalence areas, is a potential strategy to narrow the search for potential environmental and other causes that aggregate over space and time. We described the spatial and temporal trends of the prevalence of birth defects in North Carolina during 2003-2015, using data on live births obtained from the North Carolina Birth Defects Monitoring Program. By employing a Bayesian space-time Poisson model, we estimated spatial and temporal trends of non-chromosomal and chromosomal birth defects. During 2003-2015, 52,524 (3.3%) of 1,598,807 live births had at least one recorded birth defect. The prevalence of non-chromosomal birth defects decreased from 3.8% in 2003 to 2.9% in 2015. Spatial modeling suggested a large geographic variation in non-chromosomal birth defects at census-tract level, with the highest prevalence in southeastern North Carolina. The strong spatial heterogeneity revealed in this work allowed to identify geographic areas with higher prevalence of non-chromosomal birth defects in North Carolina. This variation will help inform future research focused on epidemiologic studies of birth defects to identify etiologic factors.

Glucagon-like Peptide 1 Receptor Agonists and Asthma Exacerbations: Which Patients Benefit Most?

RATIONALE: While recent evidence suggested glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP1RA) may reduce the risk of asthma exacerbations, it remains unclear which subpopulations might derive the most benefit from GLP1RA treatment. OBJECTIVE: To identify characteristics of patients with asthma that predict who might benefit the most from GLP1RA treatment using real-world data. METHODS: We implemented an active-comparator, new-user design analysis using commercially insured patients ages 18-65 from Marketscan data 2007-2019 and identified two cohorts: GLP1RA vs thiazolidinediones and GLP1RA vs sulfonylureas. The outcome was acute exacerbation of asthma (hospital admission or emergency department (ED) visit for asthma) within 180 days after initiation. We applied iterative causal forest (iCF), a novel causal machine learning subgrouping algorithm, to assess HTE. In identified subgroups, we predicted propensity score, conducted propensity score trimming, and then estimated adjusted risk differences (aRD) for the effect of GLP1RA relative to comparators on asthma exacerbation using inverse probability treatment weighting in propensity score trimmed subpopulation. RESULTS: Among 10,989 patients initiating GLP1RA or thiazolidinediones and 17,088 patients initiating GLP1RA vs sulfonylurea, GLP1RA initiators had fewer exacerbations with an aRD of -0.5% (95% CI -1.1% to 0.1%) and -1.6% (95% CI -2.2% to -1.1%), respectively. In the GLP1RAvsSUcohort where we observed beneficial effect, our iCF analysis identified 5 subgroups with different treatment effects, defined by number of ED visits, number of prescriptions of short-acting beta2-agonsit (SABA), number of prescriptions of inhaled steroid (ICS) and long-acting beta-agonists (LABA) (either combination therapy or concurrent use), and aged 50+. Among these, patients with 2+ ED visits during 12-month baseline period had the largest absolute exacerbation risk reduction, with a decrease of 2.8% for GLP1RA (95% CI: -4.8% to -0.9%). CONCLUSIONS: GLP1RA demonstrated beneficial effect on reducing asthma exacerbation relative to sulfonylureas. Asthma patients with 2+ ED visits (a proxy for disease severity) benefit most from GLP1RA. ED visit frequency, and number of maintenance and reliever inhalers, and age may help individualize prediction of the short-term benefit from GLP1RA on asthma exacerbation.

Longitudinal associations between urinary biomarkers of phthalates and replacements with novel in vivo measures of placental health.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the longitudinal association between gestational phthalate exposure and in vivo placental outcomes? SUMMARY ANSWER: Phthalates were adversely associated with placental microvasculature, stiffness, and presence of calcification, with different metabolites associated with different outcomes. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Phthalate exposure is ubiquitous and implicated as a contributor to adverse pregnancy outcomes, possibly through impacts on the placenta. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A total of 303 women were recruited in early pregnancy and prospectively followed for up to eight visits across gestation in the Human Placenta and Phthalates study. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: At each visit, women provided urine samples and underwent placental ultrasounds. Urine was analyzed for 18 metabolites of phthalates and replacements. We took the geometric mean of repeated measurements to reflect pregnancy-averaged phthalate or replacement exposure for each participant (n = 303). Placental microvasculature, stiffness, and microcalcification presence were quantified from ultrasounds at each visit. Higher scores reflected worse placental function for all measures. Generalized linear mixed models were created to estimate the association between pregnancy-averaged exposure biomarker concentrations and repeated outcome measurements for microvasculature and stiffness. Gestational age at the time of calcification detection was modeled using Cox proportional hazards models. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Monocarboxyisononyl phthalate and summed di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate metabolites were associated with impaired microvasculature development, such that an interquartile range increase in concentration was associated with 0.11 standard deviation increase in the microvasculature ratio, indicating poorer vascularization (95% CI: 0.00, 0.22); 0.11 [95% CI: -0.01, 0.22], respectively. Monoethyl phthalate was associated with increased placental stiffness (0.09 [95% CI: -0.01, 0.19]) while summed di-iso-butyl phthalate metabolites and monobenzyl phthalate were associated with increased hazard of calcification detection (hazard ratios: 1.18 [95% CI: 0.98, 1.42]; 1.13 [95% CI: 0.96, 1.34]). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Outcomes used in this study are novel and further investigation is needed to provide clinical context and relevance. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: We found evidence of associations between select phthalate biomarkers and various aspects of in vivo placental health, although we did not observe consistency across placental outcomes. These findings could illustrate heterogeneous effects of phthalate exposure on placental function. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This research was supported in part by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (ZIA ES103344), and NIEHS T32ES007018. The authors declare that they have no competing interests to disclose. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by the CDC, the Public Health Service, or the US Department of Health and Human Services. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Urinary metabolite concentrations of phthalate and plasticizers in infancy and childhood in the UNC baby connectome project.

INTRODUCTION: Existing evidence suggests that exposure to phthalates is higher among younger age groups. However, limited knowledge exists on how phthalate exposure, as well as exposure to replacement plasticizers, di(isononyl) cyclohexane-1,2-dicarboxylate (DINCH) and di-2-ethylhexyl terephthalate (DEHTP), change from infancy through early childhood. METHODS: Urine samples were collected across the first 5 years of life from typically developing infants and young children enrolled between 2017 and 2020 in the longitudinal UNC Baby Connectome Project. From 438 urine samples among 187 participants, we quantified concentrations of monobutyl phthalate (MnBP), mono-3-carboxypropyl phthalate (MCPP), monoisobutyl phthalate (MiBP), monoethyl phthalate (MEP), monobenzyl phthalate (MBzP), and metabolites of di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), diisonoyl phthalate (DiNP), DINCH and DEHTP. Specific gravity (SG) adjusted metabolite and molar sum concentrations were compared across age groups. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were calculated among 122 participants with multiple urine specimens (373 samples). RESULTS: Most phthalate metabolites showed high detection frequencies (>80% of samples). Replacement plasticizers DINCH (58-60%) and DEHTP (>97%) were also commonly found. DiNP metabolites were less frequently detected (<10%). For some metabolites, SG-adjusted concentrations were inversely associated with age, with the highest concentrations found in the first year of life. ICCs revealed low to moderate reliability in metabolite measurements (ρ = 0.10-0.48) suggesting a high degree of within-individual variation in exposure among this age group. The first 6 months (compared to remaining age groups) showed an increased ratio of carboxylated metabolites of DEHP and DEHTP, compared to other common metabolites, but no clear age trends for DINCH metabolite ratios were observed. CONCLUSION: Metabolites of phthalates and replacements plasticizers were widely detected in infancy and early childhood, with the highest concentrations observed in the first year of life for several metabolites. Higher proportions of carboxylated metabolites of DEHP and DEHTP in younger age groups indicate potential differences in metabolism during infancy.

Estimating impacts of reducing acrylonitrile exposure on lung cancer mortality in an occupational cohort with the parametric g-formula.

OBJECTIVES: To inform the potential human carcinogenicity of acrylonitrile, we estimate associations between acrylonitrile exposures and lung cancer mortality in US workers with the objectives of (1) assessing potential for healthy worker survivor bias and (2) adjusting for this bias while assessing the expected lung cancer mortality under different hypothetical occupational exposure limits on acrylonitrile exposure using the parametric g-formula. METHODS: We used data from a cohort of 25 460 workers at facilities making or using acrylonitrile in the USA. We estimated HRs to quantify associations between employment and lung cancer mortality, and exposure and leaving employment. Using the parametric g-formula, we estimated cumulative lung cancer mortality at hypothetical limits on acrylonitrile exposure. RESULTS: Recent and current employment was associated with lung cancer, and exposure was associated with leaving employment, indicating potential for healthy worker survivor bias. Relative to no intervention, reducing the historical exposure under limits of 2.0, 1.0 and 0.45 parts per million would have been expected to reduce lung cancer mortality by age 90 by 4.46 (95% CI 0.78 to 8.15), 5.03 (95% CI 0.96 to 9.11) and 6.45 (95% CI 2.35 to 10.58) deaths per 1000 workers, respectively. A larger lung cancer mortality reduction would be expected under elimination of exposure: 7.21 (95% CI 2.72 to 11.70) deaths per 1000 workers. CONCLUSIONS: Healthy worker survivor bias likely led to underestimation of excess risk. Our results corroborate previous study findings of an excess hazard of lung cancer among the highest exposed workers.

Variable selection when estimating effects in external target populations.

External validity is an important part of epidemiologic research. To validly estimate effects in specific external target populations using a chosen effect measure (ie, "transport"), some methods require that one account for all effect measure modifiers (EMMs). However, little is known about how including other variables that are not EMMs (ie, non-EMMs) in adjustment sets affects estimates. Using simulations, we evaluated how inclusion of non-EMMs affected estimation of the transported risk difference (RD) by assessing the impacts of covariates that (1) differ (or not) between the trial and the target, (2) are associated with the outcome (or not), and (3) modify the RD (or not). We assessed variation and bias when covariates with each possible combination of these factors were used to transport RDs using outcome modeling or inverse odds weighting. Inclusion of variables that differed in distribution between the populations but were non-EMMs reduced precision, regardless of whether they were associated with the outcome. However, non-EMMs associated with selection did not amplify bias resulting from omission of necessary EMMs. Including all variables associated with the outcome may result in unnecessarily imprecise estimates when estimating treatment effects in external target populations.

Individual and joint effects of prenatal PM2.5 and maternal stress on child temperament.

Prenatal fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and maternal psychological functioning have been associated with child cognitive outcomes, though their independent and joint impacts on earlier behavioral outcomes remains less studied. We used data from 382 mother-child pairs from a prospective birth cohort in Mexico City. Temperament was measured at 24 months using the Carey Toddler Temperament Scale (TTS). Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was used to update the factor structure of the TTS. During pregnancy, mothers completed the Crisis in Family Systems-Revised, Edinburgh Depression Scale, pregnancy-specific anxiety scale, and the Perceived Stress Scale. Pregnancy PM2.5 was assessed using estimates from a satellite-based exposure model. We assessed the association between prenatal maternal stress and PM2.5 on temperament, in both independent and joint models. Quantile g-computation was used to estimate the joint associations. Models were adjusted for maternal age, SES, education, child sex, and child age. In EFA, we identified three temperament factors related to effortful control, extraversion, and negative affect. Our main results showed that higher levels of PM2.5 and several of the maternal psychological functioning measures were related to both effortful control and negative affect in the child, both individually and as a mixture. For instance, a one quartile increase in the prenatal mixture was associated with higher negative affect scores in the child (0.34, 95% CI: 0.16, 0.53). We observed modification of these associations by maternal SES, with associations seen only among lower SES participants for both effortful control (-0.45, 95% CI: -0.70, -0.20) and negative affect outcomes (0.60, 95% CI: 0.35, 0.85). Prenatal PM2.5 and maternal psychological functioning measures were associated with toddler temperament outcomes, providing evidence for impacts of chemical and non-chemical stressors on early child health.

Visualizing External Validity: Graphical Displays to Inform the Extension of Treatment Effects from Trials to Clinical Practice.

BACKGROUND: In the presence of effect measure modification, estimates of treatment effects from randomized controlled trials may not be valid in clinical practice settings. The development and application of quantitative approaches for extending treatment effects from trials to clinical practice settings is an active area of research. METHODS: In this article, we provide researchers with a practical roadmap and four visualizations to assist in variable selection for models to extend treatment effects observed in trials to clinical practice settings and to assess model specification and performance. We apply this roadmap and visualizations to an example extending the effects of adjuvant chemotherapy (5-fluorouracil vs. plus oxaliplatin) for colon cancer from a trial population to a population of individuals treated in community oncology practices in the United States. RESULTS: The first visualization screens for potential effect measure modifiers to include in models extending trial treatment effects to clinical practice populations. The second visualization displays a measure of covariate overlap between the clinical practice populations and the trial population. The third and fourth visualizations highlight considerations for model specification and influential observations. The conceptual roadmap describes how the output from the visualizations helps interrogate the assumptions required to extend treatment effects from trials to target populations. CONCLUSIONS: The roadmap and visualizations can inform practical decisions required for quantitatively extending treatment effects from trials to clinical practice settings.

Personal care product use patterns in association with phthalate and replacement biomarkers across pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Humans are exposed to phthalates, a class of non-persistent chemicals, through multiple products, including personal care and cosmetics. Associations between specific phthalates and product use have been inconsistent. However, determining these connections could provide avenues for exposure reduction. OBJECTIVE: Examine the association between patterns of personal care product use and associations with phthalate and replacement biomarkers. METHODS: In the Human Placenta and Phthalates Study, 303 women were enrolled in early pregnancy and followed for up to 8 visits across gestation. At each visit, women completed a questionnaire about product use in the prior 24 hours and contributed urine samples, subsequently analyzed for 18 phthalate and replacement metabolites. At early, mid-, and late pregnancy, questionnaire responses were condensed and repeated metabolite concentrations were averaged. Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to determine groups of women with similar use patterns, and weighted associations between group membership and biomarker concentrations were assessed. RESULTS: LCA sorted women into groups which largely corresponded to: (1) low fragranced product use (16-23% of women); (2) fragranced product and low body wash use (22-26%); 3) fragranced product and low bar soap use (26-51%); and (4) low product use (7-34%). Monoethyl phthalate (MEP) urinary concentrations were 7-10% lower and concentrations of summed di(2-ethylhexyl) terephthalate metabolites were 15-21% lower among women in the "low fragranced product use" group compared to the population mean. Few other consistent associations between group and biomarker concentrations were noted. IMPACT STATEMENT: Personal care products and cosmetics are a known exposure source for phthalates and potentially represent one of the most accessible intervention targets for exposure reduction. However, in this analysis accounting for concurrent use and fragranced status of products, we did not find any use patterns that corresponded to universally lower levels.

Exposure to indoor light at night in relation to multiple dimensions of sleep health: findings from the Sister Study.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between light at night (LAN) and multiple sleep health dimensions. METHODS: Among 47 765 Sister Study participants, indoor LAN (TV on in the room, light(s) on in room, light from outside the room, nightlight, no light) and sleep dimensions were self-reported at baseline (2003-2009). We used Poisson regression with robust variance to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the cross-sectional associations between LAN and short sleep duration (<7 hours/night), insomnia symptoms (difficulty falling or staying asleep), frequent napping (≥3 naps/week), inconsistent sleep/wake time (differed day-to-day and week-to-week), sleep debt (≥2 hours between longest and shortest duration), recent sleep medication use, and a cumulative poor sleep score (≥3 poor sleep dimensions). Population-attributable risks (PARs) were determined for any light exposure vs. none by race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Compared to sleeping with no light in the bedroom, sleeping with a TV on was associated with a higher prevalence of most dimensions of poor sleep (e.g. short sleep duration: PR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.32 to 1.45; inconsistent sleep/wake time: PR = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.44 to 1.66; sleep debt: PR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.29 to 1.44; poor sleep score: PR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.48-1.68). PARs tended to be higher for non-Hispanic black women compared to non-Hispanic white women. CONCLUSIONS: Sleeping with a TV on was associated with poor sleep health among US women, and non-Hispanic black women may be disproportionately burdened.

Use of personal care product mixtures and incident hormone-sensitive cancers in the Sister Study: A U.S.-wide prospective cohort.

BACKGROUND: Personal care products (PCPs), a source of endocrine-disrupting chemical exposure, may be associated with the risk of hormone-sensitive cancers. Few studies have investigated associations for PCP use with the incidence of hormone-sensitive cancers or considered the joint effect of multiple correlated PCPs. We examined associations between frequently used, or "everyday", PCPs and incident cancers of the breast, ovary, and uterus with a fucus on the joint effect of multiple product exposure. METHODS: Sister Study participants (n=49 899) self-reported frequency of use in the year before enrollment (2003-2009) for 41 PCPs. Using five-level frequency categories based on questionnaire options, hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for the associations between multiple PCP use and incident breast, ovarian, and uterine cancer using quantile-based g-computation with Cox proportional hazards regression as the underlying model. Multiple PCP use was examined using groupings (beauty, hygiene, and skincare products) determined by both a priori knowledge and Spearman correlation coefficients for co-occurring product use. Associations between individual PCPs and the three cancers were also examined using Cox proportional hazards models coupling with Benjamini-Hochberg procedure for multiple comparisons. RESULTS: Over an average of 11.6 years, 4 226 breast, 277 ovarian, and 403 uterine cancer cases were identified. Positive associations were observed between the hygiene mixture and ovarian cancer (HR=1.35, 95%CI=1.00, 1.83) and the beauty mixture with postmenopausal breast cancer (HR=1.08, 95%CI=1.01, 1.16). Additionally, we observed an inverse association between the skincare mixture and breast cancer (HR=0.91, 95%CI=0.83, 0.99). No significant associations were observed for individual products after corrected for multiple comparison. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this multi-product, joint-effect approach contribute to the growing body of evidence for associations between PCPs and breast cancer and provides novel information on ovarian and uterine cancer.

Concept of a new Medical Data-Driven Health Care Model based on Remote Patient Monitoring.

This paper introduces a health care model for a physician supervised remote monitoring process of patient's vital signs. The model is discussed from a process view, a medical view and a technical view. Subsequently, different scenarios for patients at home with and without outpatient care, and in a nursing home were compared. Parts of this model have been implemented and evaluated as a proof of concept.Clinical Relevance- Remote patient monitoring has the potential to relieve general practitioners in their work and help them to improve prevention and treatment of their patients. The prevention aspect in particular can contribute to a general reduction in the burden on the entire health care system.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Phthalate Exposure and Preterm Birth: A Pooled Study of Sixteen U.S. Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Phthalate exposures are ubiquitous during pregnancy and may contribute to racial and ethnic disparities in preterm birth. OBJECTIVES: We investigated race and ethnicity in the relationship between biomarkers of phthalate exposure and preterm birth by examining: a) how hypothetical reductions in racial and ethnic disparities in phthalate metabolites might reduce the probability of preterm birth; and b) exposure-response models stratified by race and ethnicity. METHODS: We pooled individual-level data on 6,045 pregnancies from 16 U.S. cohorts. We investigated covariate-adjusted differences in nine urinary phthalate metabolite concentrations by race and ethnicity [non-Hispanic White (White, 43%), non-Hispanic Black (Black, 13%), Hispanic/Latina (38%), and Asian/Pacific Islander (3%)]. Using g-computation, we estimated changes in the probability of preterm birth under hypothetical interventions to eliminate disparities in levels of urinary phthalate metabolites by proportionally lowering average concentrations in Black and Hispanic/Latina participants to be approximately equal to the averages in White participants. We also used race and ethnicity-stratified logistic regression to characterize associations between phthalate metabolites and preterm birth. RESULTS: In comparison with concentrations among White participants, adjusted mean phthalate metabolite concentrations were consistently higher among Black and Hispanic/Latina participants by 23%-148% and 4%-94%, respectively. Asian/Pacific Islander participants had metabolite levels that were similar to those of White participants. Hypothetical interventions to reduce disparities in metabolite mixtures were associated with lower probabilities of preterm birth for Black [13% relative reduction; 95% confidence interval (CI): -34%, 8.6%] and Hispanic/Latina (9% relative reduction; 95% CI: -19%, 0.8%) participants. Odds ratios for preterm birth in association with phthalate metabolites demonstrated heterogeneity by race and ethnicity for two individual metabolites (mono-n-butyl and monoisobutyl phthalate), with positive associations that were larger in magnitude observed among Black or Hispanic/Latina participants. CONCLUSIONS: Phthalate metabolite concentrations differed substantially by race and ethnicity. Our results show hypothetical interventions to reduce population-level racial and ethnic disparities in biomarkers of phthalate exposure could potentially reduce the probability of preterm birth. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12831.

Iterative Causal Forest: A Novel Algorithm for Subgroup Identification.

Precisely and efficiently identifying subgroups with heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) in real-world evidence studies remains a challenge. Based on the causal forest (CF) method, we developed an iterative CF (iCF) algorithm to identify HTEs in subgroups defined by important variables. Our method iteratively grows different depths of the CF with important effect modifiers, performs plurality votes to obtain decision trees (subgroup decisions) for a family of CFs with different depths, then finds the cross-validated subgroup decision that best predicts the treatment effect as a final subgroup decision. We simulated 12 different scenarios and showed that the iCF outperformed other machine learning methods for interaction/subgroup identification in the majority of scenarios assessed. Using a 20% random sample of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries initiating sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1RA), we implemented the iCF to identify subgroups with HTEs for hospitalized heart failure. Consistent with previous studies suggesting patients with heart failure benefit more from SGLT2i, iCF successfully identified such a subpopulation with HTEs and additive interactions. The iCF is a promising method for identifying subgroups with HTEs in real-world data where the potential for unmeasured confounding can be limited by study design.

Toxic metal mixtures in private well water and increased risk for preterm birth in North Carolina.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal exposure to metals in private well water may increase the risk of preterm birth (PTB) (delivery < 37 weeks' gestation). In this study, we estimated associations between arsenic, manganese, lead, cadmium, chromium, copper, and zinc concentrations in private well water and PTB incidence in North Carolina (NC). METHODS: Birth certificates from 2003-2015 (n = 1,329,071) were obtained and pregnancies were assigned exposure using the mean concentration and the percentage of tests above the maximum contaminant level (MCL) for the census tract of each individuals' residence at the time of delivery using the NCWELL database (117,960 well water tests from 1998-2019). We evaluated associations between single metals and PTB using adjusted logistic regression models. Metals mixtures were assessed using quantile-based g-computation. RESULTS: Compared with those in other census tracts, individuals residing in tracts where > 25% of tests exceeded the MCL for lead (aOR 1.10, 95%CI 1.02,1.18) or cadmium (aOR 1.11, 95% CI 1.00,1.23) had an increased odds of PTB. Conversely, those residing in areas with > 25% MCL for zinc (aOR 0.77 (95% CI: 0.56,1.02) and copper (aOR 0.53 (95% CI: 0.13,1.34)) had a reduced odds of PTB. A quartile increase in the concentrations of a mixture of lead, cadmium, and chromium was associated with a small increased odds for PTB (aOR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01, 1.03). This metal mixture effect was most pronounced among American Indian individuals (aOR per quartile increase in all metals: 1.19 (95% CI 1.06,1.34)). CONCLUSIONS: In a large study population of over one million births, lead and cadmium were found to increase the risk of PTB individually and in a mixture, with additional mixtures-related impacts estimated from co-exposure with chromium. This study highlights critical racial and ethnic health disparities in relation to private well water thereby emphasizing the urgent need for improved private well water quality to protect vulnerable populations.

Maternal serum per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances during pregnancy and breastfeeding duration.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are endocrine-disrupting chemicals that may affect breastfeeding duration. We examined associations between maternal PFAS concentrations during pregnancy and breastfeeding cessation. We investigated potential effect modification by parity status. Methods: Among 555 women enrolled in the Healthy Start study (2009-2014), we quantified maternal serum concentrations of 5 PFAS during mid- to late-pregnancy (mean 27 weeks of gestation). Participants self-reported their breastfeeding practices through 18-24 months postnatally. Among all participants and stratified by parity, we estimated associations between maternal PFAS concentrations and breastfeeding discontinuation by 3 and 6 months, using Poisson regression, and breastfeeding duration, using Cox regression. Results: Median PFAS concentrations were similar to those in the general US population. Associations between PFAS and breastfeeding duration differed by parity status. After adjusting for covariates, among primiparous women, associations between PFAS and breastfeeding cessation by 3 and 6 months were generally null, with some inverse associations. Among multiparous women, there were positive associations between perfluorohexane sulfonate, perfluorooctane sulfonate, perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), and perfluorononanoate and breastfeeding cessation by 3 and 6 months. For example, per ln-ng/mL increase in PFOA, the risk ratio for breastfeeding discontinuation by 6 months was 1.45 (95% confidence interval, 1.18, 1.78). Hazard ratios reflected similar patterns between PFAS and breastfeeding duration. Conclusions: Among primiparous women, we did not find evidence for associations between PFAS concentrations and breastfeeding duration. In contrast, among multiparous women, PFAS serum concentrations were generally inversely associated with breastfeeding duration, though estimates may be biased due to confounding by unmeasured previous breastfeeding.