Using an adaptive modeling framework to identify avian influenza spillover risk at the wild-domestic interface.

The wild to domestic bird interface is an important nexus for emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. Although the recent incursion of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b into North America calls for emergency response and planning given the unprecedented scale, readily available data-driven models are lacking. Here, we provide high resolution spatial and temporal transmission risk models for the contiguous United States. Considering virus host ecology, we included weekly species-level wild waterfowl (Anatidae) abundance and endemic low pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence metrics in combination with number of poultry farms per commodity type and relative biosecurity risks at two spatial scales: 3 km and county-level. Spillover risk varied across the annual cycle of waterfowl migration and some locations exhibited persistent risk throughout the year given higher poultry production. Validation using wild bird introduction events identified by phylogenetic analysis from 2022 to 2023 HPAI poultry outbreaks indicate strong model performance. The modular nature of our approach lends itself to building upon updated datasets under evolving conditions, testing hypothetical scenarios, or customizing results with proprietary data. This research demonstrates an adaptive approach for developing models to inform preparedness and response as novel outbreaks occur, viruses evolve, and additional data become available.

Zoonotic implications of white-footed mice habitat selection and territoriality in fragmented landscapes.

White-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) populations can thrive in fragmented suburban and urban parks and residential spaces and play a pivotal role in the spread and prevalence of tick-borne diseases. We collected spatial data on 58 individual mice living at the intersection of county park land and residential land in suburban Howard County, MD, U.S.A. We analyzed mouse density, home-range size and overlap, and a Bayesian mixed-effects model to identify the habitats where they were found relative to where they were caught, as well as a resource selection function for general habitat use. We found that as mouse density increased, home-range size decreased. The overlap indices and the resource selection function supported territoriality coupled with site-specific space use in these suburban mouse populations. While mice occurred in open areas, forest edge, and forest, they showed a strong preference for forested areas. Interestingly, mice captured only 30 to 40 m into the forest rarely used the nearby private yards or human structures and this has direct implications for the placement of rodent-targeted tick control treatments. Our study supports the need for zoonotic disease management frameworks that are based on site-specific land cover characteristics as well as specific management objectives.

Waterfowl show spatiotemporal trends in influenza A H5 and H7 infections but limited taxonomic variation.

Influenza A viruses in wild birds pose threats to the poultry industry, wild birds, and human health under certain conditions. Of particular importance are wild waterfowl, which are the primary reservoir of low-pathogenicity influenza viruses that ultimately cause high-pathogenicity outbreaks in poultry farms. Despite much work on the drivers of influenza A virus prevalence, the underlying viral subtype dynamics are still mostly unexplored. Nevertheless, understanding these dynamics, particularly for the agriculturally significant H5 and H7 subtypes, is important for mitigating the risk of outbreaks in domestic poultry farms. Here, using an expansive surveillance database, we take a large-scale look at the spatial, temporal, and taxonomic drivers in the prevalence of these two subtypes among influenza A-positive wild waterfowl. We document spatiotemporal trends that are consistent with past work, particularly an uptick in H5 viruses in late autumn and H7 viruses in spring. Interestingly, despite large species differences in temporal trends in overall influenza A virus prevalence, we document only modest differences in the relative abundance of these two subtypes and little, if any, temporal differences among species. As such, it appears that differences in species' phenology, physiology, and behaviors that influence overall susceptibility to influenza A viruses play a much lesser role in relative susceptibility to different subtypes. Instead, species are likely to freely pass viruses among each other regardless of subtype. Importantly, despite the similarities among species documented here, individual species still may play important roles in moving viruses across large geographic areas or sustaining local outbreaks through their different migratory behaviors.

Spatiotemporal changes in influenza A virus prevalence among wild waterfowl inhabiting the continental United States throughout the annual cycle.

Avian influenza viruses can pose serious risks to agricultural production, human health, and wildlife. An understanding of viruses in wild reservoir species across time and space is important to informing surveillance programs, risk models, and potential population impacts for vulnerable species. Although it is recognized that influenza A virus prevalence peaks in reservoir waterfowl in late summer through autumn, temporal and spatial variation across species has not been fully characterized. We combined two large influenza databases for North America and applied spatiotemporal models to explore patterns in prevalence throughout the annual cycle and across the continental United States for 30 waterfowl species. Peaks in prevalence in late summer through autumn were pronounced for dabbling ducks in the genera Anas and Spatula, but not Mareca. Spatially, areas of high prevalence appeared to be related to regional duck density, with highest predicted prevalence found across the upper Midwest during early fall, though further study is needed. We documented elevated prevalence in late winter and early spring, particularly in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. Our results suggest that spatiotemporal variation in prevalence outside autumn staging areas may also represent a dynamic parameter to be considered in IAV ecology and associated risks.

White-Tailed Deer Spatial Distribution in Relation to '4-Poster' Tick Control Devices in Suburbia.

Deer are keystone hosts for adult ticks and have enabled the spread of tick distributions. The '4-Poster' deer bait station was developed by the United States Department of Agriculture to control ticks feeding on free-ranging deer. Although effective in certain scenarios, '4-Poster' deer treatment stations require the use of bait to attract deer to one location, which may cause increased deer disease transmission rates and habitat damage. To better understand and manage the impact of baited '4-Poster' stations on deer movements, we captured and GPS-monitored 35 deer as part of an integrated pest management project. Fifteen '4-Poster' stations were deployed among three suburban county parks to control ticks. To quantify the effects of '4-Poster' stations, we calculated deer movement metrics before and after feeders were filled with whole kernel corn, and we gathered information on visitation rates to feeders. Overall, 83.3% of collared deer visited a feeder and revisited approximately every 5 days. After feeders were refilled, collared deer were ~5% closer to feeders and conspecifics than before filling. Males used a higher percentage of available feeders and visited them more throughout the deployment periods. Although these nuanced alterations in behavior may not be strong enough to increase local deer abundance, in light of infectious diseases affecting deer populations and effective '4-Poster' densities, the core range shifts and clustering after refilling bait may be a cause for concern. As such, trade-offs between conflicting management goals should be carefully considered when deploying '4-Poster' stations.

Patterns of deer ked (Diptera: Hippoboscidae) and tick (Ixodida: Ixodidae) infestation on white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the eastern United States.

BACKGROUND: White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) host numerous ectoparasitic species in the eastern USA, most notably various species of ticks and two species of deer keds. Several pathogens transmitted by ticks to humans and other animal hosts have also been found in deer keds. Little is known about the acquisition and potential for transmission of these pathogens by deer keds; however, tick-deer ked co-feeding transmission is one possible scenario. On-host localization of ticks and deer keds on white-tailed deer was evaluated across several geographical regions of the eastern US to define tick-deer ked spatial relationships on host deer, which may impact the vector-borne disease ecology of these ectoparasites. METHODS: Ticks and deer keds were collected from hunter-harvested white-tailed deer from six states in the eastern US. Each deer was divided into three body sections, and each section was checked for 4 person-minutes. Differences in ectoparasite counts across body sections and/or states were evaluated using a Bayesian generalized mixed model. RESULTS: A total of 168 white-tailed deer were inspected for ticks and deer keds across the study sites. Ticks (n = 1636) were collected from all surveyed states, with Ixodes scapularis (n = 1427) being the predominant species. Counts of I. scapularis from the head and front sections were greater than from the rear section. Neotropical deer keds (Lipoptena mazamae) from Alabama and Tennessee (n = 247) were more often found on the rear body section. European deer keds from Pennsylvania (all Lipoptena cervi, n = 314) were found on all body sections of deer. CONCLUSIONS: The distributions of ticks and deer keds on white-tailed deer were significantly different from each other, providing the first evidence of possible on-host niche partitioning of ticks and two geographically distinct deer ked species (L. cervi in the northeast and L. mazamae in the southeast). These differences in spatial distributions may have implications for acquisition and/or transmission of vector-borne pathogens and therefore warrant further study over a wider geographic range and longer time frame.

Behavioral niche partitioning reexamined: Do behavioral differences predict dietary differences in warblers?

Behavioral niche partitioning is an important and widely assumed mechanism for the coexistence of ecologically similar species. Here we assessed this mechanism by testing its core assumption, that evolved differences in foraging behavior correspond with differences in resources consumed. We combined data on foraging behavior, available prey, and observed diets of five coexisting species of New World wood warblers (Parulidae), a system that has been foundational to our understanding of behavioral niche partitioning. Consistent with past work, we found that the five species differed markedly in their foraging behavior, enough that some species pairs hardly overlapped at all in foraging microhabitat. In contrast, the birds overlapped highly in diet, while exhibiting small, interpretable differences in resource use. The high overlap resulted mostly from all five species consuming numerous ants, a prey source that moves between microhabitats. To test the prediction that the large differences in foraging behavior explain the small dietary differences, we generated expected diets based on available prey and foraging microhabitat use. Consistent with niche partitioning as a coexistence mechanism, we found that the small dietary differences were explained by a combination of foraging microhabitat and available prey, but this pattern was driven by only a small number of prey taxa. Thus, we found mixed support for behavioral niche partitioning. Our results indicate that foraging behavior among these bird species helps explain subtle variation in diet, potentially facilitating coexistence. However, our results also revealed a weak relationship between foraging behavior and resource partitioning. Consequently, studies that rely solely on foraging behavior may greatly overestimate the degree of niche differentiation leading to erroneous conclusions. Overall, this study calls into question how and why these differences in foraging behavior evolved, and what role if any they play in facilitating coexistence.