Modeling study on oil spill transport in the Great Lakes: The unignorable impact of ice cover.

The rise in oil trade and transportation has led to a continuous increase in the risk of oil spills, posing a serious worldwide concern. However, there is a lack of numerical models for predicting oil spill transport in freshwater, especially under icy conditions. To tackle this challenge, we developed a prediction system for oil with ice modeling by coupling the General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) model with the Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS) model. Taking Lake Erie as a pilot study, we used observed drifter data to evaluate the performance of the coupled model. Additionally, we developed six hypothetical oil spill cases in Lake Erie, considering both with and without ice conditions during the freezing, stable, and melting seasons spanning from 2018 to 2022, to investigate the impacts of ice cover on oil spill processes. The results showed the effective performance of the coupled model system in capturing the movements of a deployed drifter. Through ensemble simulations, it was observed that the stable season with high-concentration ice had the most significant impact on limiting oil transport compared to the freezing and melting seasons, resulting in an oil-affected open water area of 49 km2 on day 5 with ice cover, while without ice cover it reached 183 km2. The stable season with high-concentration ice showed a notable reduction in the probability of oil presence in the risk map, whereas this reduction effect was less prominent during the freezing and melting seasons. Moreover, negative correlations between initial ice concentration and oil-affected open water area were consistent, especially on day 1 with a linear regression R-squared value of 0.94, potentially enabling rapid prediction. Overall, the coupled model system serves as a useful tool for simulating oil spills in the world's largest freshwater system, particularly under icy conditions, thus enhancing the formulation of effective emergency response strategies.

A database of in situ water temperatures for large inland lakes across the coterminous United States.

Water temperature dynamics in large inland lakes are interrelated with internal lake physics, ecosystem function, and adjacent land surface meteorology and climatology. Models for simulating and forecasting lake temperatures often rely on remote sensing and in situ data for validation. In situ monitoring platforms have the benefit of providing relatively precise measurements at multiple lake depths, but are often sparser (temporally and spatially) than remote sensing data. Here, we address the challenge of synthesizing in situ lake temperature data by creating a standardized database of near-surface and subsurface measurements from 134 sites across 29 large North American lakes, with the primary goal of supporting an ongoing lake model validation study. We utilize data sources ranging from federal agency repositories to local monitoring group samples, with a collective historical record spanning January 1, 2000 through December 31, 2022. Our database has direct utility for validating simulations and forecasts from operational numerical weather prediction systems in large lakes whose extensive surface area may significantly influence nearby weather and climate patterns.

A consistent Great Lakes ice cover digital data set for winters 1973-2019.

Ice formation and loss in the Laurentian Great Lakes has a strong impact on regional climate, weather, economy and ecology in North America. To record the ice changes during the winter season, Great Lakes ice cover data has been collected and maintained since 1973 by Canadian Ice Service, U.S. National Ice Center, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. Throughout this long history, technology has improved and the needs of users have evolved, so Great Lakes ice cover datasets have been upgraded several times in both spatial and temporal resolutions. In order to make those long-term data consistent and accessible, we reprocessed the Great Lakes ice cover database to generate daily gridded data (1.8 km resolution) using a re-project method with Nearest Neighbor Search for spatial interpolation, and linear interpolation with categorization for temporal interpolation. This report elucidates data history, generation procedures, and file structure in order to improve access and usability of Great Lakes ice cover data.

Effect of feeding an encapsulated source of butyric acid (ButiPEARL) on the performance of male Cobb broilers reared to 42 d of age.

The objective of this research was to determine the optimal level of an encapsulated butyric acid (ButiPEARL) based on the performance of male Cobb broilers reared to 42 d of age and to investigate its effects on intestinal morphology. Experiment 1 ( EXP 1: ) consisted of 4 treatments with 12 replicate pens that contained 45 broilers, and Experiment 2 ( EXP 2: ) consisted of 6 treatments with 8 replicate pens that contained 50 broilers. Birds were weighed by pen on d 0, 21, 35, and 42. In EXP 1, the treatments were as follows: 1) control ( C: ); 2) C + 100 g ButiPEARL/ton; 3) C + 200 g ButiPEARL/ton; and 4) C + 300 g ButiPEARL/ton. In EXP 2, the treatments were identical to EXP 1, with 2 additional treatments: 5) C + 400 g ButiPEARL/ton and 6) C + 500 g ButiPEARL/ton. In EXP 1, two 42-d-old broilers per pen were randomly selected for duodenal and jejunal tissue collection. Only the samples from the broilers fed the C or 300 g ButiPEARL treatments were analyzed for histology in EXP 1. For EXP 2, on d 21 and 35, two broilers per pen were randomly selected for duodenal, jejunal, and ileal tissue collection. For EXP 1 and 2, BW gain increased linearly with increasing butyric acid levels (P < 0.027 and P < 0.001, respectively). For EXP 1 and 2, feed conversion linearly improved with increasing butyric acid from 0 to 42 d (P < 0.001 and P < 0.001, respectively). In EXP 1, there were no differences in any intestinal morphology at 42 d between broilers fed the C or 300 g ButiPEARL treatments. In EXP 2, there were no differences in villus height at 21 or 35 d of age with any level of butyric acid. Based on the results of this research related to BW gain and feed conversion, the recommended optimum dosage level for ButiPEARL in broilers reared to 42 d of age is up to 500 g/ton.

High-frequency sonography of the volar digital nerves of the hand.

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study is to describe our technique for high-frequency sonography of the volar digital nerves and to define the course, caliber, and morphology of normal volar digital nerves. METHODS: The volar digital nerves of 10 volunteers were imaged in the long axis using a linear ultrasound transducer. Height, weight, glove size, and hand dominance were recorded. Each radial and ulnar nerve was divided into four segments. Segment thickness and depth were measured. A mixed model analysis for repeated measures was utilized (α = 0.05). RESULTS: The average nerve thickness (NT) was 1.1 mm (± 0.01 SE), and the average nerve depth (ND) was 2.8 mm (± 0.04 SE). Neither NT nor ND demonstrated any significant correlation with height, age, weight, body mass index, or glove size. Nerves ranged in thickness from 0.7 to 1.5 mm and in depth from 0.7 to 6.8 mm. CONCLUSION: High-frequency sonography permits high-resolution imaging of the volar digital nerves.

Sonographic assessment of suture artifact obscuring visualization of the digital nerve.

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to grade the severity of sonographic artifact produced by four suture materials and to determine whether these artifacts affect visualization of a digital nerve. METHODS: A needle was placed into a pig foot to mimic a normal volar digital nerve. Incisions superficial to the needle were closed with different suture types, specifically nylon (N), chromic (C), vicryl (V), and prolene (P). Sonographic images were obtained using a high-frequency transducer. Twenty radiology residents and attending physicians graded the severity of artifact and nerve obscuration. Two image types were shown: one suture type per image and a composite image of each suture type, adjacent to one another. RESULTS: Severity of nerve obscuration was as follows: composite image: P = N = V > C; individual images: P > N > V > C. Severity of artifact was: composite image: V = N > P > C; individual image: P > N > V > C. CONCLUSION: Although all sutures produced artifact, only C produced mild artifact, which did not significantly obscure visualization of the nerve model.

Sonographic assessment of volar digital nerve injury in the context of penetrating trauma.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this article was to report our experience using ultrasound to assess digital nerve integrity after penetrating hand trauma with sensory deficit. Ultrasound was performed in the long axis on 22 digital nerves in 11 patients using a 12-14-MHz linear array hockey stick transducer. CONCLUSION: Of 22 volar digital nerves evaluated by sonography, six were transected. All imaging findings were confirmed surgically. High-frequency ultrasound permits accurate imaging of intact and transected volar digital nerves.

Developing a risk stratification model for surgical site infection after abdominal hysterectomy.

OBJECTIVE: The incidence of surgical site infection (SSI) after hysterectomy ranges widely from 2% to 21%. A specific risk stratification index could help to predict more accurately the risk of incisional SSI following abdominal hysterectomy and would help determine the reasons for the wide range of reported SSI rates in individual studies. To increase our understanding of the risk factors needed to build a specific risk stratification index, we performed a retrospective multihospital analysis of risk factors for SSI after abdominal hysterectomy. METHODS: Retrospective case-control study of 545 abdominal and 275 vaginal hysterectomies from July 1, 2003, to June 30, 2005, at 4 institutions. SSIs were defined by using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance criteria. Independent risk factors for abdominal hysterectomy were identified by using logistic regression. RESULTS: There were 13 deep incisional, 53 superficial incisional, and 18 organ-space SSIs after abdominal hysterectomy and 14 organ-space SSIs after vaginal hysterectomy. Because risk factors for organ-space SSI were different according to univariate analysis, we focused further analyses on incisional SSI after abdominal hysterectomy. The maximum serum glucose level within 5 days after operation was highest in patients with deep incisional SSI, lower in patients with superficial incisional SSI, and lowest in uninfected patients (median, 189, 156, and 141 mg/dL, respectively; P = .005). Independent risk factors for incisional SSI included blood transfusion (odds ratio [OR], 2.4) and morbid obesity (body mass index [BMI], >35; OR, 5.7). Duration of operation greater than the 75th percentile (OR, 1.7), obesity (BMI, 30-35; OR, 3.0), and lack of private health insurance (OR, 1.7) were marginally associated with increased odds of SSI. CONCLUSIONS: Incisional SSI after abdominal hysterectomy was associated with increased BMI and blood transfusion. Longer duration of operation and lack of private health insurance were marginally associated with SSI.

A review of failures of endoscopic treatment of vesicoureteral reflux with dextranomer microspheres.

PURPOSE: We evaluated the appearance of the mound of failed endoscopic dextranomer microsphere injections at the time of reinjection or open ureteral reimplantation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a multi-institutional study of 80 patients (97 ureters) who were diagnosed with vesicoureteral reflux and had failed endoscopic treatment with dextranomer microspheres. Observations of injected mound characteristics were made during the time of reinjection or at open ureteral reimplantation. Correlations were made with the pre-injection grade of reflux, volume of initial injection, number of punctures used for the initial injection and presence of symptoms of dysfunctional voiding. RESULTS: Examination of the failed injection sites before subsequent injections or open surgery revealed mound abnormalities in all but 13 of the 97 ureters. Of the cases 49% demonstrated a shifted mound, 22% an absent mound and 10% a loss of volume in the mound. Of the 13 patients with normal appearing mounds 7 had improved reflux grade, 3 had worsened grade and 3 had no change. Patients with dysfunctional voiding symptoms had a second injection failure rate of 44%, compared to a 13% rate in those without symptoms of voiding dysfunction. CONCLUSIONS: Most failures of endoscopic correction are associated with mound shifting. The presence of a perfect mound does not predict success. Dysfunctional voiding predicts a lower success rate after a second injection.

Identifying workers at risk for high health care expenditures: a short questionnaire.

The objective of this study was to create and measure the predictive accuracy of a brief questionnaire for screening new workers to identify those at increased risk for generating high health care insurance expenditures during the following year. Such an instrument could help health plans and providers intervene to mitigate the health risks of identified high-risk workers. We mailed a 53-item questionnaire to members of a "derivation cohort" (adult food processing workers, n = 15496) and obtained records of the eligible respondents' health insurance expenditures during the following year. Using multiple linear regression, we identified eight of the questions that predicted future expenditures most accurately, and created a formula to predict total expenditures from answers to these questions. To validate the formula's predictive accuracy, we used the eight-item questionnaire to survey two "validation cohorts" (transportation workers, n = 7445; and their dependents, n = 5562), inserted responses into the scoring formula, classified respondents into high-risk (top 10%) or low-risk (lower 90%) groupings, and then compared health insurance expenditures generated by the high- and low-risk groups during the following year. In the derivation cohort, age, sex, regular use of medications, frequent visits to physicians, and having arthritis, diabetes, cancer, or high cholesterol predicted future health care expenditures. In the worker and dependent validation cohorts, the respondents classified by the formula as high-risk generated insurance expenditures during the following year that were 2.4 and 1.8 times greater than those generated by the members of the low-risk groups (p < 0.001). An eight-item questionnaire and its scoring formula can identify high-risk groups of workers that will generate high health care expenditures during the following year. Healthcare organizations could use this questionnaire to help target new workers for care management and disease management interventions.