Extended Goal Recognition: Lessons from Magic.

The "science of magic" has lately emerged as a new field of study, providing valuable insights into the nature of human perception and cognition. While most of us think of magic as being all about deception and perceptual "tricks", the craft-as documented by psychologists and professional magicians-provides a rare practical demonstration and understanding of goal recognition. For the purposes of human-aware planning, goal recognition involves predicting what a human observer is most likely to understand from a sequence of actions. Magicians perform sequences of actions with keen awareness of what an audience will understand from them and-in order to subvert it-the ability to predict precisely what an observer's expectation is most likely to be. Magicians can do this without needing to know any personal details about their audience and without making any significant modification to their routine from one performance to the next. That is, the actions they perform are reliably interpreted by any human observer in such a way that particular (albeit erroneous) goals are predicted every time. This is achievable because people's perception, cognition and sense-making are predictably fallible. Moreover, in the context of magic, the principles underlying human fallibility are not only well-articulated but empirically proven. In recent work we demonstrated how aspects of human cognition could be incorporated into a standard model of goal recognition, showing that-even though phenomena may be "fully observable" in that nothing prevents them from being observed-not all are noticed, not all are encoded or remembered, and few are remembered indefinitely. In the current article, we revisit those findings from a different angle. We first explore established principles from the science of magic, then recontextualise and build on our model of extended goal recognition in the context of those principles. While our extensions relate primarily to observations, this work extends and explains the definitions, showing how incidental (and apparently incidental) behaviours may significantly influence human memory and belief. We conclude by discussing additional ways in which magic can inform models of goal recognition and the light that this sheds on the persistence of conspiracy theories in the face of compelling contradictory evidence.

Norm talk and human cooperation: Can we talk ourselves into cooperation?

Norm talk is verbal communication that explicitly states or implicitly implies a social norm. To investigate its ability to shape cultural dynamics, 2 types of norm talk were examined: injunction, which explicitly states what should be done, and gossip, which implies a norm by stating an action approved or disapproved of by the communicator. In 2 experiments, participants engaged in norm talk in repeated public goods games. Norm talk was found to help sustain cooperation relative to the control condition; immediately after every norm talk opportunity, cooperation spiked, followed by a gradual decline. Despite the macrolevel uniformity in their effects on cooperation, evidence suggests different microlevel mechanisms for the cooperation-enhancing effects of injunction and gossip. A 3rd study confirmed that both injunction and gossip sustain cooperation by making salient the norm of cooperation, but injunction also effects mutual verification of the communicated norm, whereas gossip emphasizes its reputational implications by linking cooperation to status conferral and noncooperation to reputational damage. A 4th experiment provided additional evidence that norm talk was superior to the promise of conditional cooperation in sustaining cooperation. Implications of the findings for cultural dynamics are discussed in terms of how feelings of shared morality, language-based interpersonal communication, and ritualization of norm communication contribute to social regulation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Sustainability is possible despite greed - Exploring the nexus between profitability and sustainability in common pool resource systems.

The sustainable use of common pool resources has become a significant global challenge. It is now widely accepted that specific mechanisms such as community-based management strategies, institutional responses such as resource privatization, information availability and emergent social norms can be used to constrain individual 'harvesting' to socially optimal levels. However, there is a paucity of research focused specifically on aligning profitability and sustainability goals. In this paper, an integrated mathematical model of a common pool resource game is developed to explore the nexus between the underlying costs and benefits of harvesting decisions and the sustainable level of a shared, dynamic resource. We derive optimal harvesting efforts analytically and then use numerical simulations to show that individuals in a group can learn to make harvesting decisions that lead to the globally optimal levels. Individual agents make their decision based on signals received and a trade-off between economic and ecological sustainability. When the balance is weighted towards profitability, acceptable economic and social outcomes emerge. However, if individual agents are solely driven by profit, the shared resource is depleted in the long run - sustainability is possible despite some greed, but too much will lead to over-exploitation.

Culture and cooperation in a spatial public goods game.

We study the coevolution of culture and cooperation by combining the Axelrod model of cultural dissemination with a spatial public goods game, incorporating both noise and social influence. Both participation and cooperation in public goods games are conditional on cultural similarity. We find that a larger "scope of cultural possibilities" in the model leads to the survival of cooperation, when noise is not present, and a higher probability of a multicultural state evolving, for low noise rates. High noise rates, however, lead to both rapid extinction of cooperation and collapse into cultural "anomie," in which stable cultural regions fail to form. These results suggest that cultural diversity can actually be beneficial for the evolution of cooperation, but that cultural information needs to be transmitted accurately in order to maintain both coherent cultural groups and cooperation.

Diversity and Community Can Coexist.

We examine the (in)compatibility of diversity and sense of community by means of agent-based models based on the well-known Schelling model of residential segregation and Axelrod model of cultural dissemination. We find that diversity and highly clustered social networks, on the assumptions of social tie formation based on spatial proximity and homophily, are incompatible when agent features are immutable, and this holds even for multiple independent features. We include both mutable and immutable features into a model that integrates Schelling and Axelrod models, and we find that even for multiple independent features, diversity and highly clustered social networks can be incompatible on the assumptions of social tie formation based on spatial proximity and homophily. However, this incompatibility breaks down when cultural diversity can be sufficiently large, at which point diversity and clustering need not be negatively correlated. This implies that segregation based on immutable characteristics such as race can possibly be overcome by sufficient similarity on mutable characteristics based on culture, which are subject to a process of social influence, provided a sufficiently large "scope of cultural possibilities" exists.

Dilemma of dilemmas: how collective and individual perspectives can clarify the size dilemma in voluntary linear public goods dilemmas.

Empirical findings on public goods dilemmas indicate an unresolved dilemma: that increasing size-the number of people in the dilemma-sometimes increases, decreases, or does not influence cooperation. We clarify this dilemma by first classifying public goods dilemma properties that specify individual outcomes as individual properties (e.g., Marginal Per Capita Return) and group outcomes as group properties (e.g., public good multiplier), mathematically showing how only one set of properties can remain constant as the dilemma size increases. Underpinning decision-making regarding individual and group properties, we propose that individuals are motivated by both individual and group preferences based on a theory of collective rationality. We use Van Lange's integrated model of social value orientations to operationalize these preferences as an amalgamation of outcomes for self, outcomes for others, and equality of outcomes. Based on this model, we then predict how the public good's benefit and size, combined with controlling individual versus group properties, produce different levels of cooperation in public goods dilemmas. A two (low vs. high benefit) by three (2-person baseline vs. 5-person holding constant individual properties vs. 5-person holding constant group properties) factorial experiment (group n = 99; participant n = 390) confirms our hypotheses. The results indicate that when holding constant group properties, size decreases cooperation. Yet when holding constant individual properties, size increases cooperation when benefit is low and does not affect cooperation when benefit is high. Using agent-based simulations of individual and group preferences vis-à-vis the integrative model, we fit a weighted simulation model to the empirical data. This fitted model is sufficient to reproduce the empirical results, but only when both individual (self-interest) and group (other-interest and equality) preference are included. Our research contributes to understanding how people's motivations and behaviors within public goods dilemmas interact with the properties of the dilemma to lead to collective outcomes.

Ultrametric distribution of culture vectors in an extended Axelrod model of cultural dissemination.

The Axelrod model of cultural diffusion is an apparently simple model that is capable of complex behaviour. A recent work used a real-world dataset of opinions as initial conditions, demonstrating the effects of the ultrametric distribution of empirical opinion vectors in promoting cultural diversity in the model. Here we quantify the degree of ultrametricity of the initial culture vectors and investigate the effect of varying degrees of ultrametricity on the absorbing state of both a simple and extended model. Unlike the simple model, ultrametricity alone is not sufficient to sustain long-term diversity in the extended Axelrod model; rather, the initial conditions must also have sufficiently large variance in intervector distances. Further, we find that a scheme for evolving synthetic opinion vectors from cultural "prototypes" shows the same behaviour as real opinion data in maintaining cultural diversity in the extended model; whereas neutral evolution of cultural vectors does not.

Incorporating feature ranking and evolutionary methods for the classification of high-dimensional DNA microarray gene expression data.

BACKGROUND: DNA microarray gene expression classification poses a challenging task to the machine learning domain. Typically, the dimensionality of gene expression data sets could go from several thousands to over 10,000 genes. A potential solution to this issue is using feature selection to reduce the dimensionality. AIMS: The aim of this paper is to investigate how we can use feature quality information to improve the precision of microarray gene expression classification tasks. METHOD: We propose two evolutionary machine learning models based on the eXtended Classifier System (XCS) and a typical feature selection methodology. The first one, which we call FS-XCS, uses feature selection for feature reduction purposes. The second model is GRD-XCS, which uses feature ranking to bias the rule discovery process of XCS. RESULTS: The results indicate that the use of feature selection/ranking methods is essential for tackling highdimensional classification tasks, such as microarray gene expression classification. However, the results also suggest that using feature ranking to bias the rule discovery process performs significantly better than using the feature reduction method. In other words, using feature quality information to develop a smarter learning procedure is more efficient than reducing the feature set. CONCLUSION: Our findings have shown that extracting feature quality information can assist the learning process and improve classification accuracy. On the other hand, relying exclusively on the feature quality information might potentially decrease the classification performance (e.g., using feature reduction). Therefore, we recommend a hybrid approach that uses feature quality information to direct the learning process by highlighting the more informative features, but at the same time not restricting the learning process to explore other features.

A computational model for emergent dynamics in the kidney.

In this paper, concepts from network automata are adapted and extended to model complex biological systems. Specifically, systems of nephrons, the operational units of the kidney, are modelled and the dynamics of such systems are explored. Nephron behaviour can fluctuate widely and, under certain conditions, become chaotic. However, the behaviour of the whole kidney remains remarkably stable and blood solute levels are maintained under a wide range of conditions even when many nephrons are damaged or lost. A network model is used to investigate the stability of systems of nephrons and interactions between nephrons. More sophisticated dynamics are explored including the observed oscillations in single nephron filtration rates and the development of stable ionic and osmotic gradients in the inner medulla which contribute to the countercurrent exchange mechanism. We have used the model to explore the effects of changes in input parameters including hydrostatic and osmotic pressures and concentrations of ions, such as sodium and chloride. The intrinsic nephron control, tubuloglomerular feedback, is included and the effects of coupling between nephrons are explored in two-, eight- and 72-nephron models.