Methodology for Estimation of Annual Risk of Rupture for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Estimating patient specific annual risk of rupture of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is currently based only on population. More accurate knowledge based on patient specific data would allow surgical treatment of only those AAAs with significant risk of rupture. This would be beneficial for both patients and health care system. METHODS: A methodology for estimating annual risk of rupture (EARR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) that utilizes Bayesian statistics, mechanics and patient-specific blood pressure monitoring data is proposed. EARR estimation takes into consideration, peak wall stress in AAA computed by patient-specific finite element modeling, the probability distributions of wall thickness, wall strength, systolic blood pressure and the period of time that the patient is known to have already survived with the intact AAA. Initial testing of proposed approach was performed on fifteen patients with intact AAA (mean maximal diameter 51mm±8mm). They were equipped with a pressure holter and their blood pressure was recorded over 24 hours. Then, we calculated EARR values for four possible scenarios - without considering any days of survival prior identification of AAA at computed tomography scans (EARR_0), considering past survival of 30 (EARR_30), 90 (EARR_90) and 180 days (EARR_180). Finally, effect of patient-specific blood pressure variability was analyzed. RESULTS: Consideration of past survival does indeed significantly improve predictions of future risk: EARR_30 (1.04%± 0.87%), EARR_90 (0.67%± 0.56%) and EARR_180 (0.47%± 0.39%) which are unrealistically high otherwise (EARR_0 5.02%± 5.24%). Finally, EARR values were observed to vary by an order as a consequence of blood pressure variability and by factor of two as a consequence of neglected growth. CONCLUSIONS: Methodology for computing annual risk of rupture of AAA was developed for the first time. Sensitivity analyses showed respecting patient specific blood pressure is important factor and should be included in the AAA rupture risk assessment. Obtained EARR values were generally low and in good agreement with confirmed survival time of investigated patients so proposed method should be further clinically validated.

Failure properties of abdominal aortic aneurysm tissue are orientation dependent.

INTRODUCTION: Biomechanical rupture risk assessment of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) requires information about failure properties of aneurysmal tissue. There are large differences between reported values. Among others, studies vary in using either axially or circumferentially oriented samples. This study investigates the effect of sample orientation on failure properties. METHODS: Aneurysmal tissues from 45 patients (11 females) were harvested during open AAA repair, cut into uniaxial samples (90) and tested mechanically within 3 h. If possible, the samples were cut in both axial (49 samples) and circumferential (41 samples) directions. Wall thickness, First Piola-Kirchhoff strength Pult and ultimate tension Tult were recorded. Influence of sample orientation and other clinical parameters were investigated using non parametric tests. RESULTS: Medians of Pult (values 1100 kPa for circumferential vs. 715 kPa for axial direction, p < 10-4) and Tult (17.4 N/cm in circumferential vs. 11.2 N/cm in axial direction, p < 10-4) were significantly higher in circumferential direction. For paired data, the median of difference was 411 kPa (p < 10-3) in Pult and 7.4 N/cm (p < 10-4) in Tult in favor of circumferential direction. CONCLUSIONS: In this first study of anisotropy in AAA wall failure properties using paired comparisons, the strength in circumferential orientation was found to be higher than in axial orientation.