Long-term responses of internal environment dynamics in a freshwater lake to variations in external nutrient inputs: A model simulation approach.

Lake restoration usually focuses on reducing external nutrient sources. However, when sediments contain nutrients accumulated over multiple years, internal nutrient release can delay restoration progress. In lake restoration and management, it is important to understand the dynamic relationship between nutrient concentrations in a lake and internal and external nutrient sources. In this study, we quantified external nutrient inputs through measurements and compared them with internal sediment release from simulation using the PCLake+ model. Additionally, we evaluated alterations in the internal nutrient release, lake nutrient concentrations, and algae biomass (chlorophyll-a) within the lake following varying degrees of reduction in external nutrient loads. The results demonstrate that the PCLake+ effectively simulated the lake's nutrient concentration and algae biomass. Based on the PCLake+ estimates, internal nutrient loads accounted for 51 % of the total nitrogen (N) and 80 % of the total phosphorus (P) loadings in Lake Erhai in 2019. In 2020, the total contributions were 43 % for TN and 72 % for TP. We simulated four scenarios where external nutrient inputs were reduced to 25 %, 50 %, 75 %, and 99.99 % of their original levels. The 40-year simulation showed that the lake's ecological system initially exhibited a fast internal response but reached equilibrium after eight years. P concentrations took longer to reach equilibrium compared to N concentrations, probably due to the stronger binding characteristics of P. To meet the water quality target in the future, it is necessary to reduce external N and P inputs into Lake Erhai by at least 23 % and 15 %, respectively, under current conditions. Although reducing external nutrient loads can indirectly lower internal nutrient loads, water management should address both external and internal loads simultaneously, as internal release cannot be effectively reduced by external reductions alone. Additionally, the lake's internal release may continue for several years, even with reductions in external inputs.

An optimized crop-livestock system can achieve a safe and just planetary boundary for phosphorus at the sub-basin level in China.

The contribution of crop and livestock production to the exceedance of the planetary boundary for phosphorus (P) in China is still unclear, despite the country's well-known issues with P fertilizer overuse and P-related water pollution. Using coupled models at sub-basin scales we estimate that livestock production increased the consumption of P fertilizer fivefold and exacerbated P losses twofold from 1980 to 2017. At present, China's crop-livestock system is responsible for exceeding what is considered a 'just' threshold for fertilizer P use by 30% (ranging from 17% to 68%) and a 'safe' water quality threshold by 45% (ranging from 31% to 74%) in 25 sub-basins in China. Improving the crop-livestock system will keep all sub-basins within safe water quality and just multigenerational limits for P in 2050.

A global assessment of glyphosate and AMPA inputs into rivers: Over half of the pollutants are from corn and soybean production.

Glyphosate is widely used in agriculture for weed control; however, it may pollute water systems with its by-product, aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA). Therefore, a better understanding of the flows of glyphosate and AMPA from soils into rivers is required. We developed the spatially explicit MARINA-Pesticides model to estimate the annual inputs of glyphosate and AMPA into rivers, considering 10 crops in 10,226 sub-basins globally for 2020. Our model results show that, globally, 880 tonnes of glyphosate and 4,090 tonnes of AMPA entered rivers. This implies that 82 % of the river inputs were from AMPA, with glyphosate accounting for the remainder. Over half of AMPA and glyphosate in rivers globally originated from corn and soybean production; however, there were differences among sub-basins. Asian sub-basins accounted for over half of glyphosate in rivers globally, with the contribution from corn production being dominant. South American sub-basins accounted for approximately two-thirds of AMPA in rivers globally, originating largely from soybean production. Our findings constitute a reference for implementing and supporting effective control strategies to achieve Sustainable Development Goals 2 and 6 (food production and clean water, respectively) simultaneously in the future.

Keeping Nitrogen Use in China within the Planetary Boundary Using a Spatially Explicit Approach.

Nitrogen (N) supports food production, but its excess causes water pollution. We lack an understanding of the boundary of N for water quality while considering complex relationships between N inputs and in-stream N concentrations. Our knowledge is limited to regional reduction targets to secure food production. Here, we aim to derive a spatially explicit boundary of N inputs to rivers for surface water quality using a bottom-up approach and to explore ways to meet the derived N boundary while considering the associated impacts on both surface water quality and food production in China. We modified a multiscale nutrient modeling system simulating around 6.5 Tg of N inputs to rivers that are allowed for whole of China in 2012. Maximum allowed N inputs to rivers are higher for intensive food production regions and lower for highly urbanized regions. When fertilizer and manure use is reduced, 45-76% of the streams could meet the N water quality threshold under different scenarios. A comparison of "water quality first" and "food production first" scenarios indicates that trade-offs between water quality and food production exist in 2-8% of the streams, which may put 7-28% of crop production at stake. Our insights could support region-specific policies for improving water quality.

Uplifting local ecological knowledge as part of adaptation pathways to wildfire risk reduction: A case study in Montseny, Catalonia (Spain).

Living with wildfires in an era of climate change requires adaptation and weaving together many forms of knowledge. Empirical evidence of knowledge co-production in wildfire management is lacking in Mediterranean European areas. We explored how local ecological knowledge can be leveraged to reduce wildfire risk through an adaptation pathways process in the Montseny massif and wider Tordera River watershed of Catalonia, Spain: an area stewarded through forestry and agriculture, tourism, nature conservation, and fire management. We combined different methods (e.g., a timeline and Three Horizons framework) throughout three workshops with agents of change to co-create adaptation pathways to reduce wildfire risk, integrating a historical perspective of the landscape while envisioning desirable futures. Our results showed that local ecological knowledge and other soft adaptation strategies contribute to innovative sustainable development initiatives that can also mitigate wildfire risk. The adaptation pathways approach holds much potential to inform local policies and support wildfire-based community initiatives in diverse contexts.

Large reductions in nutrient losses needed to avoid future coastal eutrophication across Europe.

Rapid technological development in agriculture and fast urbanization have increased nutrient losses in Europe. High nutrient export to seas causes coastal eutrophication and harmful algal blooms. This study aims to assess the river exports of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), and identify required reductions to avoid coastal eutrophication in Europe under global change. We modelled nutrient export by 594 rivers in 2050 for a baseline scenario using the new MARINA-Nutrients model for Europe. Nutrient export to European seas is expected to increase by 13-28% under global change. Manure and fertilizers together contribute to river export of N by 35% in 2050. Sewage systems are responsible for 70% of future P export by rivers. By 2050, the top ten polluted rivers for N and P host 42% of the European population. Avoiding future coastal eutrophication requires over 47% less N and up to 77% less P exports by these polluted rivers.

How nutrient retention and TN:TP ratios depend on ecosystem state in thousands of Chinese lakes.

Worldwide, anthropogenic activities threaten surface water quality by aggravating eutrophication and increasing total nitrogen to total phosphorus (TN:TP) ratios. In hydrologically connected systems, water quality management may benefit from in-ecosystem nutrient retention by preventing nutrient transport to downstream systems. However, nutrient retention may also alter TN:TP ratios with unforeseen consequences for downstream water quality. Here, we aim to increase understanding of how nutrient retention may influence nutrient transport to downstream systems to improve long-term water quality management. We analyzed lake ecosystem state, in-lake nutrient retention, and nutrient transport (ratios) for 3482 Chinese lakes using the lake process-based ecosystem model PCLake+. We compared a low climate change and sustainability-, and a high climate change and economy-focused scenario for 2050 against 2012. In both scenarios, the effect of nutrient input reduction outweighs that of temperature rise, resulting in more lakes with good ecological water quality (i.e., macrophyte-dominated) than in 2012. Generally, the sustainability-focused scenario shows a more promising future for water quality than the economy-focused scenario. Nevertheless, most lakes remain phytoplankton-dominated. The shift to more macrophyte-dominated lakes in 2050 is accompanied by higher nutrient retention fractions and less nutrient transport to downstream waterbodies. In-lake nutrient retention also alters the water's TN:TP ratio, depending on the inflow TN:TP ratio and the ecosystem state. In 2050 higher TN:TP ratios are expected in the outflows of lakes than in 2012, especially for the sustainability-focused scenario with strong TP loading reduction. However, the downstream impact of increased TN:TP ratios depends on actual nutrient loadings and the limiting nutrient in the receiving system. We conclude that nutrient input reductions, improved water quality, higher in-lake nutrient retention fractions, and lower nutrient transport to downstream waterbodies go hand in hand. Therefore, water quality management could benefit even more from nutrient pollution reduction than one would expect at first sight.

Causes of coastal waters pollution with nutrients, chemicals and plastics worldwide.

Worldwide, coastal waters contain pollutants such as nutrients, plastics, and chemicals. Rivers export those pollutants, but their sources are not well studied. Our study aims to quantify river exports of nutrients, chemicals, and plastics to coastal waters by source and sub-basin worldwide. We developed a new MARINA-Multi model for 10,226 sub-basins. The global modelled river export to seas is approximately 40,000 kton of nitrogen, 1,800 kton of phosphorous, 45 kton of microplastics, 490 kton of macroplastics, 400 ton of triclosan and 220 ton of diclofenac. Around three-quarters of these pollutants are transported to the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Diffuse sources contribute by 95-100 % to nitrogen (agriculture) and macroplastics (mismanaged waste) in seas. Point sources (sewage) contribute by 40-95 % to phosphorus and microplastics in seas. Almost 45 % of global sub-basin areas are multi-pollutant hotspots hosting 89 % of the global population. Our findings could support strategies for reducing multiple pollutants in seas.