Performance of prediction rules and guidelines in detecting serious bacterial infections among Tanzanian febrile children.

BACKGROUND: Health-workers in developing countries rely on clinical algorithms, such as the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI), for the management of patients, including diagnosis of serious bacterial infections (SBI). The diagnostic accuracy of IMCI in detecting children with SBI is unknown. Prediction rules and guidelines for SBI from well-resourced countries at outpatient level may help to improve current guidelines; however, their diagnostic performance has not been evaluated in resource-limited countries, where clinical conditions, access to care, and diagnostic capacity differ. The aim of this study was to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of existing prediction rules and clinical guidelines in identifying children with SBI in a cohort of febrile children attending outpatient health facilities in Tanzania. METHODS: Structured literature review to identify available prediction rules and guidelines aimed at detecting SBI and retrospective, external validation on a dataset containing 1005 febrile Tanzanian children with acute infections. The reference standard, SBI, was established based on rigorous clinical and microbiological criteria. RESULTS: Four prediction rules and five guidelines, including IMCI, could be validated. All examined rules and guidelines had insufficient diagnostic accuracy for ruling-in or ruling-out SBI with positive and negative likelihood ratios ranging from 1.04-1.87 to 0.47-0.92, respectively. IMCI had a sensitivity of 36.7% (95% CI 29.4-44.6%) at a specificity of 70.3% (67.1-73.4%). Rules that use a combination of clinical and laboratory testing had better performance compared to rules and guidelines using only clinical and or laboratory elements. CONCLUSIONS: Currently applied guidelines for managing children with febrile illness have insufficient diagnostic accuracy in detecting children with SBI. Revised clinical algorithms including simple point-of-care tests with improved accuracy for detecting SBI targeting in tropical resource-poor settings are needed. They should undergo careful external validation against clinical outcome before implementation, given the inherent limitations of gold standards for SBI.

Predictive value of clinical and laboratory features for the main febrile diseases in children living in Tanzania: A prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: To construct evidence-based guidelines for management of febrile illness, it is essential to identify clinical predictors for the main causes of fever, either to diagnose the disease when no laboratory test is available or to better target testing when a test is available. The objective was to investigate clinical predictors of several diseases in a cohort of febrile children attending outpatient clinics in Tanzania, whose diagnoses have been established after extensive clinical and laboratory workup. METHOD: From April to December 2008, 1005 consecutive children aged 2 months to 10 years with temperature ≥38°C attending two outpatient clinics in Dar es Salaam were included. Demographic characteristics, symptoms and signs, comorbidities, full blood count and liver enzyme level were investigated by bi- and multi-variate analyses (Chan, et al., 2008). To evaluate accuracy of combined predictors to construct algorithms, classification and regression tree (CART) analyses were also performed. RESULTS: 62 variables were studied. Between 4 and 15 significant predictors to rule in (aLR+>1) or rule out (aLR+<1) the disease were found in the multivariate analysis for the 7 more frequent outcomes. For malaria, the strongest predictor was temperature ≥40°C (aLR+8.4, 95%CI 4.7-15), for typhoid abdominal tenderness (5.9,2.5-11), for urinary tract infection (UTI) age ≥3 years (0.20,0-0.50), for radiological pneumonia abnormal chest auscultation (4.3,2.8-6.1), for acute HHV6 infection dehydration (0.18,0-0.75), for bacterial disease (any type) chest indrawing (19,8.2-60) and for viral disease (any type) jaundice (0.28,0.16-0.41). Other clinically relevant and easy to assess predictors were also found: malaria could be ruled in by recent travel, typhoid by jaundice, radiological pneumonia by very fast breathing and UTI by fever duration of ≥4 days. The CART model for malaria included temperature, travel, jaundice and hepatomegaly (sensitivity 80%, specificity 64%); typhoid: age ≥2 years, jaundice, abdominal tenderness and adenopathy (46%,93%); UTI: age <2 years, temperature ≥40°C, low weight and pale nails (20%,96%); radiological pneumonia: very fast breathing, chest indrawing and leukocytosis (38%,97%); acute HHV6 infection: less than 2 years old, (no) dehydration, (no) jaundice and (no) rash (86%,51%); bacterial disease: chest indrawing, chronic condition, temperature ≥39.7°c and fever duration >3 days (45%,83%); viral disease: runny nose, cough and age <2 years (68%,76%). CONCLUSION: A better understanding of the relative performance of these predictors might be of great help for clinicians to be able to better decide when to test, treat, refer or simply observe a sick child, in order to decrease morbidity and mortality, but also to avoid unnecessary antimicrobial prescription. These predictors have been used to construct a new algorithm for the management of childhood illnesses called ALMANACH.

Increased Nasopharyngeal Density and Concurrent Carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Moraxella catarrhalis Are Associated with Pneumonia in Febrile Children.

BACKGROUND: We assessed nasopharyngeal (NP) carriage of five pathogens in febrile children with and without acute respiratory infection (ARI) of the upper (URTI) or lower tract, attending health facilities in Tanzania. METHODS: NP swabs collected from children (N = 960) aged 2 months to 10 years, and with a temperature ≥38°C, were utilized to quantify bacterial density of S. pneumoniae (Sp), H. influenzae (Hi), M. catarrhalis (Mc), S. aureus (Sa), and N. meningitidis (Nm). We determined associations between presence of individual species, densities, or concurrent carriage of all species combination with respiratory diseases including clinical pneumonia, pneumonia with normal chest radiography (CXR) and endpoint pneumonia. RESULTS: Individual carriage, and NP density, of Sp, Hi, or Mc, but not Sa, or Nm, was significantly associated with febrile ARI and clinical pneumonia when compared to febrile non-ARI episodes. Density was also significantly increased in severe pneumonia when compared to mild URTI (Sp, p<0.002; Hi p<0.001; Mc, p = 0.014). Accordingly, concurrent carriage of Sp+, Hi+, and Mc+, in the absence of Sa- and Nm-, was significantly more prevalent in children with ARI (p = 0.03), or clinical pneumonia (p<0.001) than non-ARI, and in children with clinical pneumonia (p = 0.0007) than URTI. Furthermore, Sp+, Hi+, and Mc+ differentiated children with pneumonia with normal CXR, or endpoint pneumonia, from those with URTI, and non-ARI cases. CONCLUSIONS: Concurrent NP carriage of Sp, Hi, and Mc was a predictor of clinical pneumonia and identified children with pneumonia with normal CXR and endpoint pneumonia from those with febrile URTI, or non-ARI episodes.

Molecular Epidemiology of Human Rhinoviruses and Enteroviruses Highlights Their Diversity in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Human rhinoviruses (HRVs) and enteroviruses (HEVs) belong to the Enterovirus genus and are the most frequent cause of infection worldwide, but data on their molecular epidemiology in Africa are scarce. To understand HRV and HEV molecular epidemiology in this setting, we enrolled febrile pediatric patients participating in a large prospective cohort assessing the causes of fever in Tanzanian children. Naso/oropharyngeal swabs were systematically collected and tested by real-time RT-PCR for HRV and HEV. Viruses from positive samples were sequenced and phylogenetic analyses were then applied to highlight the HRV and HEV types as well as recombinant or divergent strains. Thirty-eight percent (378/1005) of the enrolled children harboured an HRV or HEV infection. Although some types were predominant, many distinct types were co-circulating, including a vaccinal poliovirus, HEV-A71 and HEV-D68. Three HRV-A recombinants were identified: HRV-A36/HRV-A67, HRV-A12/HRV-A67 and HRV-A96/HRV-A61. Four divergent HRV strains were also identified: one HRV-B strain and three HRV-C strains. This is the first prospective study focused on HRV and HEV molecular epidemiology in sub-Saharan Africa. This systematic and thorough large screening with careful clinical data management confirms the wide genomic diversity of these viruses, brings new insights about their evolution and provides data about associated symptoms.

Biomarkers of Host Response Predict Primary End-Point Radiological Pneumonia in Tanzanian Children with Clinical Pneumonia: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosing pediatric pneumonia is challenging in low-resource settings. The World Health Organization (WHO) has defined primary end-point radiological pneumonia for use in epidemiological and vaccine studies. However, radiography requires expertise and is often inaccessible. We hypothesized that plasma biomarkers of inflammation and endothelial activation may be useful surrogates for end-point pneumonia, and may provide insight into its biological significance. METHODS: We studied children with WHO-defined clinical pneumonia (n = 155) within a prospective cohort of 1,005 consecutive febrile children presenting to Tanzanian outpatient clinics. Based on x-ray findings, participants were categorized as primary end-point pneumonia (n = 30), other infiltrates (n = 31), or normal chest x-ray (n = 94). Plasma levels of 7 host response biomarkers at presentation were measured by ELISA. Associations between biomarker levels and radiological findings were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis test and multivariable logistic regression. Biomarker ability to predict radiological findings was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and Classification and Regression Tree analysis. RESULTS: Compared to children with normal x-ray, children with end-point pneumonia had significantly higher C-reactive protein, procalcitonin and Chitinase 3-like-1, while those with other infiltrates had elevated procalcitonin and von Willebrand Factor and decreased soluble Tie-2 and endoglin. Clinical variables were not predictive of radiological findings. Classification and Regression Tree analysis generated multi-marker models with improved performance over single markers for discriminating between groups. A model based on C-reactive protein and Chitinase 3-like-1 discriminated between end-point pneumonia and non-end-point pneumonia with 93.3% sensitivity (95% confidence interval 76.5-98.8), 80.8% specificity (72.6-87.1), positive likelihood ratio 4.9 (3.4-7.1), negative likelihood ratio 0.083 (0.022-0.32), and misclassification rate 0.20 (standard error 0.038). CONCLUSIONS: In Tanzanian children with WHO-defined clinical pneumonia, combinations of host biomarkers distinguished between end-point pneumonia, other infiltrates, and normal chest x-ray, whereas clinical variables did not. These findings generate pathophysiological hypotheses and may have potential research and clinical utility.

Beyond malaria--causes of fever in outpatient Tanzanian children.

BACKGROUND: As the incidence of malaria diminishes, a better understanding of nonmalarial fever is important for effective management of illness in children. In this study, we explored the spectrum of causes of fever in African children. METHODS: We recruited children younger than 10 years of age with a temperature of 38°C or higher at two outpatient clinics--one rural and one urban--in Tanzania. Medical histories were obtained and clinical examinations conducted by means of systematic procedures. Blood and nasopharyngeal specimens were collected to perform rapid diagnostic tests, serologic tests, culture, and molecular tests for potential pathogens causing acute fever. Final diagnoses were determined with the use of algorithms and a set of prespecified criteria. RESULTS: Analyses of data derived from clinical presentation and from 25,743 laboratory investigations yielded 1232 diagnoses. Of 1005 children (22.6% of whom had multiple diagnoses), 62.2% had an acute respiratory infection; 5.0% of these infections were radiologically confirmed pneumonia. A systemic bacterial, viral, or parasitic infection other than malaria or typhoid fever was found in 13.3% of children, nasopharyngeal viral infection (without respiratory symptoms or signs) in 11.9%, malaria in 10.5%, gastroenteritis in 10.3%, urinary tract infection in 5.9%, typhoid fever in 3.7%, skin or mucosal infection in 1.5%, and meningitis in 0.2%. The cause of fever was undetermined in 3.2% of the children. A total of 70.5% of the children had viral disease, 22.0% had bacterial disease, and 10.9% had parasitic disease. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide a description of the numerous causes of fever in African children in two representative settings. Evidence of a viral process was found more commonly than evidence of a bacterial or parasitic process. (Funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation and others.).