Trends in treatment patterns and survival outcomes in advanced non-small cell lung cancer: a Canadian population-based real-world analysis.

BACKGROUND: As part of the multi-country I-O Optimise research initiative, this population-based study evaluated real-world treatment patterns and overall survival (OS) in patients treated for advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) before and after public reimbursement of immuno-oncology (I-O) therapies in Alberta province, Canada. METHODS: This study used data from the Oncology Outcomes (O2) database, which holds information for ~ 4.5 million residents of Alberta. Eligible patients were adults newly diagnosed with NSCLC between January 2010 and December 2017 and receiving first-line therapy for advanced NSCLC (stage IIIB or IV) either in January 2010-March 2016 (pre-I-O period) or April 2016-June 2019 (post-I-O period). Time periods were based on the first public reimbursement of I-O therapy in Alberta (April 2017), with a built-in 1-year lag time before this date to allow progression to second-line therapy, for which the I-O therapy was indicated. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to estimate OS. RESULTS: Of 2244 analyzed patients, 1501 (66.9%) and 743 (33.1%) received first-line treatment in the pre-I-O and post-I-O periods, respectively. Between the pre-I-O and post-I-O periods, proportions of patients receiving chemotherapy decreased, with parallel increases in proportions receiving I-O therapies in both the first-line (from < 0.5% to 17%) and second-line (from 8% to 47%) settings. Increased use of I-O therapies in the post-I-O period was observed in subgroups with non-squamous (first line, 15%; second line, 39%) and squamous (first line, 25%; second line, 65%) histology. First-line use of tyrosine kinase inhibitors also increased among patients with non-squamous histology (from 26% to 30%). In parallel with these evolving treatment patterns, median OS increased from 10.2 to 12.1 months for all patients (P < 0.001), from 11.8 to 13.7 months for patients with non-squamous histology (P = 0.022) and from 7.8 to 9.4 months for patients with squamous histology (P = 0.215). CONCLUSIONS: Following public reimbursement, there was a rapid and profound adoption of I-O therapies for advanced NSCLC in Alberta, Canada. In addition, OS outcomes were significantly improved for patients treated in the post-I-O versus pre-I-O periods. These data lend support to the emerging body of evidence for the potential real-world benefits of I-O therapies for treatment of patients with advanced NSCLC.

Two-year survival with nivolumab in previously treated advanced non-small-cell lung cancer: A real-world pooled analysis of patients from France, Germany, and Canada.

OBJECTIVES: Immune checkpoint inhibitors have become the standard of care for metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) progressing during or after platinum-based chemotherapy. Real-world clinical practice tends to represent more diverse patient characteristics than randomized clinical trials. We sought to evaluate overall survival (OS) outcomes in the total study population and in key subsets of patients who received nivolumab for previously treated advanced NSCLC in real-world settings in France, Germany, or Canada. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data were pooled from two prospective observational cohort studies, EVIDENS and ENLARGE, and a retrospective registry in Canada. Patients included in this analysis were aged ≥18 years, had stage IIIB/IV NSCLC, and received nivolumab after at least one prior line of systemic therapy. OS was estimated in the pooled population and in various subgroups using the Kaplan-Meier method. Timing of data collection varied across cohorts (2015-2019). RESULTS: Of the 2585 patients included in this analyses, 1235 (47.8 %) were treated in France, 881 (34.1 %) in Germany, and 469 (18.1 %) in Canada. Median OS for the total study population was 11.3 months (95 % CI: 10.5-12.2); this was similar across France, Germany, and Canada. The OS rate was 49 % at 1 year and 28 % at 2 years for the total study population. In univariable Cox analyses, the presence of epidermal growth factor receptor mutations in nonsquamous disease, liver, or bone metastases were associated with significantly shorter OS, whereas tumor programmed death ligand 1 expression and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0-1 were associated with significantly prolonged OS. Similar OS was noted across subgroups of age and prior lines of therapy. CONCLUSION: OS rates in patients receiving nivolumab for previously treated advanced NSCLC in real-world clinical practice closely mirrored those in phase 3 studies, suggesting similar effectiveness of nivolumab in clinical trials and clinical practice.

Cost-effectiveness of nivolumab in squamous and non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer in Canada and Sweden: an update with 5-year data.

AIMS: Nivolumab has been approved for advanced squamous and non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) following platinum-based chemotherapy in both Canada and Sweden. We aimed to determine the value-for-money of nivolumab versus docetaxel in a Canadian and Swedish setting based on 5-year data. METHODS: These cost effectiveness analyses used partitioned survival models with three mutually exclusive health states: progression-free, progressed disease, and death. All clinical parameters were derived from two registration phase 3 randomized trials, CheckMate 017 and CheckMate 057, with a minimum follow-up of 5 years. Treatment duration was based on time-on-treatment data from the clinical trials. Costs were derived from published sources. The primary outcomes of the analyses were quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), life-years gained, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). The model input parameters for each analysis were chosen in line with guidance from the respective HTA authorities. RESULTS: From a Canadian payer perspective, the ICERs were CAN$140,753 per QALY in the squamous population, and CAN$173,804 per QALY in the non-squamous population, assuming a 10-year time horizon and a 5% discount rate for both costs and outcomes. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that changes to the discount rates for outcomes had the highest impact on the ICERs. In the Swedish analysis, the ICERs were SEK568,895 per QALY in the squamous population and SEK662,991 per QALY in the non-squamous population, assuming a 15-year time horizon, a 3% discount rate, and a 2-year maximum treatment duration for nivolumab. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the ICERs were most sensitive to changes in the discount rate for outcomes. CONCLUSION: These updated analyses, based on more mature trial data with a minimum follow-up of 5 years, generate more favorable ICERs versus the previously submitted HTA assessments that resulted in approval of nivolumab for patients with previously treated NSCLC in Canada and Sweden.

Evaluating Partitioned Survival and Markov Decision-Analytic Modeling Approaches for Use in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Estimating and Comparing Survival Outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess long-term survival outcomes for nivolumab and everolimus in renal cell carcinoma predicted by three model structures, a partitioned survival model (PSM) and two variations of a semi-Markov model (SMM), for use in cost-effectiveness analyses. METHODS: Three economic model structures were developed and populated using parametric curves fitted to patient-level data from the CheckMate 025 trial. Models consisted of three health states: progression-free, progressed disease, and death. The PSM estimated state occupancy using an area under-the-curve approach from overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) curves. The SMMs derived transition probabilities to calculate patient flow between health states. One SMM assumed that post-progression survival (PPS) was independent of PFS duration (PPS Markov); the second SMM assumed differences in PPS based on PFS duration (PPS-PFS Markov). RESULTS: All models provide a reasonable fit to the observed OS data at 2 years. For estimating cost effectiveness, however, a more relevant comparison is between estimates of OS over the modeling horizon, because this will likely impact differences in costs and quality-adjusted life-years. Estimates of the incremental mean survival benefit of nivolumab versus everolimus over 20 years were 6.6 months (PSM), 7.6 months (PPS Markov), and 7.4 months (PPS-PFS Markov), reflecting non-trivial differences of + 14% and + 11%, respectively, compared with PSM. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence from this study and previous work highlights the importance of the assumptions underlying any model structure, and the need to validate assumptions regarding survival and the application of treatment effects against what is known about the characteristics of the disease.