Residual Risks of Thrombotic Complications in Anticoagulated Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: A Cluster Analysis Approach from the GLORIA-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: Assessment of residual thromboembolic risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) prescribed oral anticoagulants (OACs) remains unexplored. We performed hierarchical cluster analysis to identify phenotypic profiles of these patients and their risks of residual thromboembolic events. METHODS: We utilised data from non-valvular AF patients on OACs, as documented in phases II and III of the GLORIA-AF (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Anti-thrombotic Treatment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation) registry. We performed a hierarchical cluster analysis to identify distinct phenotypic profiles. We compared the incidence and risks of thromboembolic events (composite of ischaemic stroke, transient ischaemic attack, or systemic embolism) and related outcomes (major bleeding and all-cause death) across the profiles. We determined the optimal number of profiles through visual inspection of the generated dendrograms. RESULTS: We included 22,410 patients (mean age 70 ± 8 years; 56% male), from which five phenotypes were identified: profile 1 ("uncontrolled hypertension"), profile 2 ("young with a history of coronary artery disease"), profile 3 ("young and obese"), profile 4 ("frailty"), and profile 5 ("non-paroxysmal AF with tachycardia"). Profile 4 was associated with the highest rates of thromboembolic events (1.66/100 person-years [95% confidence interval, 1.46-1.89]), major bleeding (1.92/100 person-years [1.70-2.16]), and death (6.02/100 person-years [5.62-6.43]). Profile 3 was associated with the lowest risk across all measured outcomes (thromboembolic events, 0.64 events/100 person-years [0.48-0.82]; major bleeding, 0.83 events/100 person-years [0.65-1.04]; and death, 1.44 events/100 person-years [1.21-1.71]). Profile 1 had a moderate thromboembolic event rate (1.04/100 person-years [0.91-1.08]), while profiles 2 and 5 showed lower rates. CONCLUSIONS: The phenotypic profiles of patients with AF prescribed OACs identified using hierarchical cluster analysis are associated with distinct residual thromboembolic risks and related outcomes. This approach has the potential to enhance patient risk-stratification and holistic approaches to management.

Metabolically "extremely unhealthy" obese and non-obese people with diabetes and the risk of cardiovascular adverse events: the Silesia Diabetes - Heart Project.

BACKGROUND: There is a growing burden of non-obese people with diabetes mellitus (DM). However, their cardiovascular risk (CV), especially in the presence of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) comorbidities is poorly characterised. The aim of this study was to analyse the risk of major CV adverse events in people with DM according to the presence of obesity and comorbidities (hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and dyslipidaemia). METHODS: We analysed persons who were enrolled in the prospective Silesia Diabetes Heart Project (NCT05626413). Individuals were divided into 6 categories according to the presence of different clinical risk factors (obesity and CKM comorbidities): (i) Group 1: non-obese with 0 CKM comorbidities; (ii) Group 2: non-obese with 1-2 CKM comorbidities; (iii) Group 3: non-obese with 3 CKM comorbidities (non-obese "extremely unhealthy"); (iv) Group 4: obese with 0 CKM comorbidities; (v) Group 5: obese with 1-2 CKM comorbidities; and (vi) Group 6: obese with 3 CKM comorbidities (obese "extremely unhealthy"). The primary outcome was a composite of CV death, myocardial infarction (MI), new onset of heart failure (HF), and ischemic stroke. RESULTS: 2105 people with DM were included [median age 60 (IQR 45-70), 48.8% females]. Both Group 1 and Group 6 were associated with a higher risk of events of the primary composite outcome (aHR 4.50, 95% CI 1.20-16.88; and aHR 3.78, 95% CI 1.06-13.47, respectively). On interaction analysis, in "extremely unhealthy" persons the impact of CKM comorbidities in determining the risk of adverse events was consistent in obese and non-obese ones (Pint=0.824), but more pronounced in individuals aged < 65 years compared to older adults (Pint= 0.028). CONCLUSION: Both non-obese and obese people with DM and 3 associated CKM comorbidities represent an "extremely unhealthy" phenotype which are at the highest risk of CV adverse events. These results highlight the importance of risk stratification of people with DM for risk factor management utilising an interdisciplinary approach.

How do food safety technical working groups within a One Health framework work? Experiences from Vietnam and Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Persistent challenges of fragmented, food safety management in low- and middle-income countries underscore the need for more robustly coordinated mechanisms. National food safety technical working groups, operating under a One Health framework, offer potential in streamlining coordination efforts to effectively address these challenges. However, more clarity regarding their formation and functioning is important for understanding how to best establish and support such groups. The aim of this study is to systematically document the development process of established groups in Vietnam and Ethiopia. METHODS: We assess the process used to establish and support the technical working groups against six critical success factors for multisectoral collaboration: drive change, define, design, realise, relate, and capture success. To do so, we review meeting minutes, Terms of Reference, and other related publications. RESULTS: The analysis underscores the importance of financial and technical support by development partners in initiating working groups while also highlighting the challenge posed by the absence of legal frameworks to secure government commitment. Embedding the technical working groups within existing government structures - such as One Health platforms - from the outset could help to ensure the active participation and sustainability of such groups. CONCLUSION: Both Vietnam and Ethiopia have established operational and institutionalized technical working groups to bolster national food safety efforts under a One Health framework. The approaches employed in these countries could serve as valuable models for others seeking to establish comparable multisectoral collaborative mechanisms to address emerging health risks.

Diabetes mellitus and adverse clinical events in patients with atrial fibrillation: A report from the GLORIA-AF registry phase III.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and diabetes mellitus (DM) are both associated with adverse clinical events, but the associations have not been fully elucidated, particularly with concomitant insulin use. This study aimed to analyse the associations between adverse events and DM, as well as adverse events and sole insulin use. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Our analysis included individuals with AF from the prospective Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Anti-Thrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation (GLORIA-AF) registry with 3-year follow-up. Outcomes included all-cause death, major bleeding, cardiovascular (CV) death, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, thromboembolism and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). RESULTS: A total of 15 861 AF individuals were included (age 70.0 ± 10.2 years; 55% male, 20% Asian), of whom, 3666 had DM (age 70.0 ± 9.5 years ; 59% male, 21% Asian). After adjustment, those with DM had higher risks of all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.46, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-1.66), CV death (HR: 1.53 95% CI: 1.27-1.86), major bleeding (HR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.01-1.48), MI (HR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.17-1.94) and MACE (HR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.23-1.63). Compared to individuals with DM receiving oral hypoglycaemic agents, those receiving insulin alone were associated with increased risks of all-cause death (HR: 2.16, 95% CI: 1.61-2.91), CV death (HR: 2.24, 95% CI: 1.45-3.47), major bleeding (HR: 1.89, 95% CI: 1. 21-2.95), MI (HR: 2.24, 95% CI: 1.31-3.82) and MACE (HR: 2.11, 95% CI: 1.54-2.88). CONCLUSIONS: DM was independently associated with higher risks of all-cause death, CV death, MI, major bleeding and MACE in AF individuals. Individuals receiving insulin alone were associated with higher risks of all-cause death, CV death, MI, major bleeding and MACE.

Impact of inflammation and anti-inflammatory therapies on the incidence of major cardiovascular events in patients with ankylosing spondylitis: A population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the independent effect of inflammatory burden and various treatments on the risk of incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in ankylosing spondylitis (AS) patients. METHODS: AS patients were retrospectively selected from a territory-wide database between 2006 and 2015, and were followed until the end of 2018. The primary outcome was the first occurrence of MACE. Multivariate time-varying Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the associations between inflammatory burden (measured by c-reactive protein [CRP] and erythrocyte sedimentation rate [ESR]) and different therapies with incident MACE, after adjusting for traditional cardiovascular (CV) risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 3827 patients with AS (mean age: 45.2 ± 15.0 years, male: 2911 [76.1 %]) were recruited. After a follow-up of 23,275 person-years, 135 patients (3.5 %) developed a first MACE. Univariate analyses showed that elevated ESR and CRP levels, and the use of glucocorticoids were associated with a significantly higher risk of MACE, while the use of sulfasalazine (SLZ), biologic DMARDs and non-cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors (non-COX-IIi) were associated with reduced risk of MACE. After adjusting for CV risk factors in the multivariable models, only ESR (HR: 1.02; ESR ≥30 mm/h, HR:1.94) and CRP level (HR: 1.14; CRP >3 mg/dl HR:5.43) remained significantly associated with increased risk of MACE, while SLZ use (HR: 0.41-0.52) was protective against MACE. CONCLUSION: High inflammatory burden was an independent predictor associated with an increased risk of MACE, while the use of SLZ might reduce risk of incident MACE in patients with AS.

Combination therapy of beta-blockers and digoxin is associated with increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation: a report from the GLORIA-AF registry.

The effect of digoxin and beta-blockers on cardiovascular outcomes and mortality remains unclear. The study aimed to determine differences in cardiovascular (CV) outcomes and death rates among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who were prescribed with beta-blockers, digoxin or combination therapy. Data from phase II/III of the prospective Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Anti-thrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation (GLORIA-AF) were analysed. The risk of major cardiovascular events (MACE) and death among patients with different prescriptions using COX proportional hazard regression was considered. Propensity score (PS) matching and weighting were further used to adjust for potential confounders of prescription use. A total of 14,201 patients [median age: 71.0 (IQR 64.0-77.0) years; 46.2% female] were recruited. After a median follow-up of 3.0 (IQR 2.4-3.1) years, 864 MACE, and 988 all-cause deaths were recorded. The incidence rate (IR) of MACE was 22.4 (95%CI 21.0-24.0) per 1000 person-years, while the IR of all-cause death was 25.4 (95%CI 23.8-27.0) per 1000 person-years. After multivariate adjustment with Cox regression, the risk of MACE (HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.09-1.68) and the risk of all-cause death (HR 1.28, 95%CI 1.04-1.57) were significantly higher in the combination therapy group, compared to the beta-blockers alone group. The risks of MACE and all-cause death remained significant in both PS matched and PS weighted cohort Among AF patients, combination therapy of beta-blockers and digoxin was associated with higher risks of MACE and all-cause death compared to beta-blockers alone.

Navigating One Health in research-for-development: Reflections on the design and implementation of the CGIAR Initiative on One Health.

Adopting One Health approaches is key for addressing interconnected health challenges. Yet, how to best put One Health into practice in research-for-development initiatives aiming to 'deliver impacts' remains unclear. Drawing on the CGIAR Initiative on One Health - a global initiative to address zoonotic diseases, antimicrobial resistance, and food and water safety - we reflect on challenges during program conception and implementation, prompting us to suggest improvements in multisectoral collaboration, coordination, and communication. Our approach involves conducting a researcher-centered process evaluation, comprising individual interviews that are subsequently thematically analyzed and synthesized. The key takeaway is that limited time for planning processes and short program timelines compared to envisioned development impacts may impede research-for-development efforts. Yet, collaborative work can be successful when adequate time and resources are allocated for planning with minimal disruption throughout implementation. Additionally, due to the multifaceted nature of One Health initiatives, it is important to pay attention to co-benefits and trade-offs, where taking action in one aspect may yield advantages and disadvantages in another, aiding to identify sustainable One Health development pathways. Forming close partnerships with national governments and local stakeholders is essential not only to promote sustainability but also to ensure local relevance, enhancing the potential for meaningful impact. Finally, regularly assessing progress toward development goals is critical as development stands as an overarching objective.

Incidence and risk factors of major cardiovascular events in rheumatoid arthritis and psoriatic arthritis: A population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the incidence and risk factors of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA) patients. METHODS: A population-based retrospective cohort of RA and PsA patients was identified in a citywide database. All patients recruited from Jan 2006 to Dec 2015 were followed until the end of 2018. The outcome was the occurrence of a first MACE. Covariates of interest included traditional cardiovascular (CV) risk factors, inflammatory markers and pharmacotherapies. The independent predictors of MACE were identified by the time-dependent cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: A total of 13,905 patients (12,233 RA and 1,672 PsA) were recruited. After a total of 119,571 patient-years of follow-up, 934 (6.7%) patients developed a first MACE. RA and PsA patients had similar adjusted incidence (incidence rate ratio 0.96, 95 % CI 0.75-1.22, p = 0.767). After adjusting for traditional CV risk factors, the time-varying erythrocyte sedimentation (ESR) rate and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels, and the use of glucocorticoids were independently associated with higher risk of MACE in both the RA and PsA cohorts. In RA, the use of methotrexate and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) were associated with fewer MACE. The use of biologic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs was not associated with MACE in both RA and PsA. CONCLUSION: The incidence of MACE was similar in RA and PsA. Systemic inflammation and glucocorticoid use independently increased the risk of MACE in inflammatory arthritis, while methotrexate and NSAIDs use were protective against the development of MACE in RA.

Time and dose-dependent effect of systemic glucocorticoids on major adverse cardiovascular event in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVES: Cardiovascular event (CVE) risk in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) was increased by glucocorticoids (GC) use. Whether there is a threshold dose and duration of GC use beyond which will increase CVE rate remains controversial. We studied the time-varying effect of GC and its dose on the risk of incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with RA. METHODS: Patients with RA without MACE at baseline were recruited from a Hong Kong citywide database from 2006 to 2015 and followed till 2018. The primary outcome was the first occurrence of an MACE. Cox regression and inverse probability treatment weighting analyses with time-varying covariates were used to evaluate the association of GC and MACE, adjusting for demographics, traditional CV risk factors, inflammatory markers and the usage of antirheumatic drugs. RESULTS: Among 12 233 RA patients with 105 826 patient-years of follow-up and a mean follow-up duration of 8.7 years, 860 (7.0%) developed MACE. In the time-varying analyses after controlling for confounding factors, a daily prednisolone dose of ≥5 mg significantly increased the risk of MACE (erythrocyte sedimentation rate model: HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.72 to 2.37; C reactive protein model: HR 1.87, 95% CI 1.60 to 2.18), while a daily dose below 5 mg was not associated with MACE risk, compared with no GC use. In patients receiving daily prednisolone ≥5 mg, the risk of incident MACE was increased by 7% per month. CONCLUSIONS: GC was associated with a duration and dose-dependent increased risk of MACE in patients with RA. Very low dose prednisolone (<5 mg daily) did not appear to confer excessive CV risk.

Inflammation is associated with incident hypertension in patients with axial spondyloarthritis: A longitudinal cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To elucidate the risk factors for the development of incident hypertension (IHT) in patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in axSpA patients who were recruited from 2001 to 2019 from a university clinic in Hong Kong. Patients with HT and/or anti-hypertensive drug use at baseline were excluded. They were followed until the end of 2020. The outcome was IHT, defined by a diagnosis and a prescription for an antihypertensive drug. Baseline and time-varying Cox regression analyses adjusting for age, sex, and body mass index (BMI), were used to assess the relationship between drug use, inflammatory burden, and IHT. RESULTS: Four hundred and thirteen patients [age: 34(25-43) years, male: 319 (77.2%)] were recruited. After a median follow-up of 12 (6-17) years, 58 patients (14%) developed IHT (IHT+group). Among all the baseline variables, disease duration and delay in diagnosis were the independent predictors for IHT based on the Cox regression model. In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, baseline disease duration, delay in diagnosis and time-varying ESR levels were independent predictors associated with an increased risk of IHT. IHT risk was significantly increased in patients with disease duration >5 years. The use of anti-inflammatory drugs was not associated with the development of IHT. CONCLUSION: Higher inflammatory burden as reflected by a longer disease duration, delay diagnosis and higher ESR levels, were predictors associated with IHT after adjusting for traditional CV risk factors. These data support routine screening for hypertension in axSpA patients, especially those with longer disease duration.

What is already known about this subject?• Patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) have a higher risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease compared with the general population. Hypertension (HT) is one of the most important modifiable risk factors. Whether increased inflammatory pathways or the use of anti-inflammatory therapies contribute toward the increased prevalence of HT in axSpA remained controversial.What does this study add?• First, higher inflammatory burden as reflected by a longer baseline disease duration, delay in diagnosis and higher ESR levels were predictors of incident HT (IHT) after adjusting for traditional CV risk factors in axSpA. Second, IHTrisk was significantly increased in pati\ents with disease duration >5 years.How might this impact on clinical practice or future developments?• Early diagnosis and adequate control of systematic inflammation may be important to prevent the development of HT. Routine screening for hypertension in axSpA patients should be considered, especially in patients with longer disease duration.

How can climate change and its interaction with other compounding risks be considered in evaluation? Experiences from Vietnam.

While evaluations play a critical role in accounting for and learning from context, it is unclear how evaluations can take account of climate change. Our objective was to explore how climate change and its interaction with other contextual factors influenced One Health food safety programs. To do so, we integrated questions about climate change into a qualitative evaluation study of an ongoing, multi-sectoral program aiming to improve pork safety in Vietnam called SafePORK. We conducted remote interviews with program researchers (n = 7) and program participants (n = 23). Based on our analysis, researchers believed climate change had potential impacts on the program but noted evidence was lacking, while program participants (slaughterhouse workers and retailers) shared how they were experiencing and adapting to the impacts of climate change. Climate change also interacted with other contextual factors to introduce additional complexities. Our study underscored the importance of assessing climate factors in evaluation and building adaptive capacity in programming.

Prevalence of Oral Pathogen Slackia exigua among Clinical Orthodontic and Non-Orthodontic Saliva Samples.

Slackia exigua (SE) is a recently identified intestinal microbe, which recent oral surveys suggest may be associated with oral diseases including caries and periodontal disease. Based upon the lack of information regarding this organism, the primary objective of this study was to determine the oral prevalence of this microbe and any potential associations with patient characteristics such as age, sex, or the presence of orthodontic appliances. This retrospective study involved the screening of an existing saliva repository composed of previously collected unstimulated clinical saliva samples. More specifically, N = 266 were identified and screened using a spectrophotometer at absorbances of A260 and A280 nm to determine their DNA purity and concentration. qPCR screening of these samples revealed a higher prevalence of Slackia exigua positive samples among pediatric patients (63.1%) compared with adults (36.9%) in this clinic population, p = 0.0007. In addition, higher percentages of Slackia exigua were observed among orthodontic patients (71.2%) compared with non-orthodontic patients (28.8%), p = 0.0001. These results did not vary by sex with nearly equal percentages of Slackia exigua positive males and females among adult and pediatric patients, as well as orthodontic and non-orthodontic samples. These results suggest a strong potential for association between the prevalence of this organism with age as well as orthodontic status, given that younger patients and those with orthodontic brackets (regardless of age) were most likely to harbor this pathogen in sufficient levels to be detected in saliva. More research will be needed to determine any associations with specific outcomes, such as caries or periodontal disease, among Slackia exigua positive patients within these specific populations.

Successful Design and Implementation of a POEM Program for Achalasia in an Integrated Healthcare System.

BACKGROUND: Per Oral Endoscopic Myotomy (POEM) is a minimally invasive treatment for achalasia with results comparable to laparoscopic Heller myotomy (LHM). Studies have described the development of proficiency for endoscopists learning to perform POEM, and societies have defined educational and technical objectives for advanced endoscopy fellows in training. However, there is limited guidance on the organizational strategy and educational plan necessary to develop an achalasia service with POEM expertise. AIMS: We aim to outline the steps for design and implementation of a successful POEM program. METHODS: We reported our experience developing a multi-disciplinary clinical program for POEM and the steps taken to achieve procedural proficiency. We also reported our technical success (successful tunneling into the gastric cardia and myotomy of LES muscle fibers) and clinical success (post-procedure Eckardt score ≤ 3) at 3-6 months and 12 months post-procedure. Adverse events were classified per the ASGE lexicon for endoscopic adverse events. RESULTS: After creating a multi-disciplinary clinical program for achalasia and completing procedural proficiency for POEM, our technical success rate was 100% and clinical success rate 90% for the first 41 patients. One adverse event (2.4%) occurred, moderate in severity per the American Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) lexicon for adverse endoscopic events. CONCLUSION: In this study, we outlined the steps involved to establish a POEM service in a large integrated healthcare system. Prior competency in interventional endoscopy, procedural training models, POEM observation and education, proctorship, and interdisciplinary patient care are recommended.

Five-year cardiovascular event risk in early rheumatoid arthritis patients who received treat-to-target management: a case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: This study explored whether the excess cardiovascular (CV) disease (CVD) risk in RA could be ameliorated by suppression of inflammation using a treat-to-target (T2T) approach. We compared the CV event (CVE) incidence among ERA patients managed by a T2T strategy with a CV risk factor-matched non-RA population and a historical RA cohort (HRA). METHODS: This was an observational study using the city-wide hospital data and the ERA registry. ERA patients received T2T management while HRA patients received routine care. Each ERA/HRA patient was matched to three non-RA controls according to age, gender and CV risk factors. Patients on antiplatelet/anticoagulant agents, with pre-existing CVD, chronic kidney disease or other autoimmune diseases were excluded. All subjects were followed for up to 5 years. The primary end point was the first occurrence of a CVE. RESULTS: The incidence of CVE in the ERA cohort (n = 261) and ERA controls were similar with a hazard ratio of 0.53 (95% CI 0.15, 1.79). In contrast, the incidence of CVE in the HRA cohort (n = 268) was significantly higher than that of the HRA controls with a hazard ratio of 1.9 (95% CI 1.16, 3.13). The incidence of CVE in the ERA cohort was significantly lower than that of the HRA cohort and the difference became insignificant after adjusting for inflammation, the use of methotrexate and traditional CV risk factors. CONCLUSION: ERA patients managed by a T2T strategy did not develop excess CVE compared with CV risk factor-matched controls over 5 years.

High inflammatory burden predicts cardiovascular events in patients with axial spondyloarthritis: a long-term follow-up study.

Background: Axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) patients are at higher risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease (CVD) than the general population, partly due to consequences of inflammation or its treatment. But relationship between inflammation in axSpA and cardiovascular events (CVE) is unknown. Objectives: To examine whether inflammatory burden over time can predict CVE independent of baseline CV risk factors in axSpA patients. Design: A cohort analysis was performed in patients who had been recruited since January 2001. The primary outcome was a first CVE occurring between January 2001 and December 2020. Methods: Three CVD risk scores were computed at baseline. The performance of the original and modified (*1.5 multiplication factor) CV risk algorithms were assessed. Time-varying Cox proportional hazard models and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were used to assess whether inflammatory burden (Bath ankylosing spondylitis disease activity index [BASDAI] and inflammatory markers), nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and disease modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) can predict the development of first CVE. Results: 463 patients (35 [26-45] years, male: 360 [77.8%]) were recruited. After a median follow-up of 12 (7-19) years, 61 patients (13.2%) experienced a first CVE. Traditional/modified CV risk scores underestimated CV risk. Erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) ⩾ 20 mm/h was associated with a significantly higher risk of CVE during follow-up (HR: 2.07, 95%CI [1.10, 3.98], p = 0.008). Active disease as indicated by a rising BASDAI also showed positive trend towards a higher risk of developing CVE over time. After adjusting for CV risk scores in the multivariable models, high ESR level (ESR ⩾ 20 mm/h) over time remained significantly associated with a higher risk of developing CV events. Conclusion: Increased inflammatory burden as reflected by elevated ESR levels (ESR ⩾ 20) was associated with increased risk of CVE, while the use of NSAIDs and DMARDs were not.

Decades of emerging infectious disease, food safety, and antimicrobial resistance response in Vietnam: The role of One Health.

Since facing outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome and avian influenza A in 2003, Vietnam has increasingly applied a One Health approach to address emerging infectious diseases of animal origin. Here, we reflect on the challenges and opportunities of One Health in the context of zoonoses, food safety, and antimicrobial resistance, drawing on a stocktake of One Health training, policy, and research in Vietnam. We also report on the results of a virtual consultation workshop held on July 2021 with representatives from 32 institutions in Vietnam to explore future One Health directions. As Vietnam approaches nearly two decades of disease preparedness and response, we hope our experiences can provide practical insights to support countries in developing coordination mechanisms and moving the One Health agenda forward toward better public health outcomes.

Unpacking the Theory Behind One Health Food Safety Programs: A Vietnam Case Study.

Many One Health programs are inherently complex, characterized by multiple perspectives from multiple sectors, delivery across various scales, and a focus on complex problems at the convergence of people, animals, and the environment. This complexity makes them difficult to conceptualize, requiring frameworks to organize the different program components. Evaluation frameworks that unpack the sequence of events linking program activities to outcomes (e.g., Theory of Change) and track outcomes (e.g., Outcome Mapping) show promise in supporting the development of One Health programs. While widely used in international development and health contexts, there has been little reflection on the use of Theory of Change and Outcome Mapping within One Health efforts. This paper reflects on the process of applying these frameworks to conceptualize a One Health food safety program in Vietnam. We find Theory of Change fostered the characterization of a change pathway toward safer pork, while Outcome Mapping kept us informed of where along the change pathway we were. One Health programs considering evaluation frameworks should adopt elements that make sense to them, be intentional about co-designing the evaluation, and view evaluation as a process, not a product.

How and why are Theory of Change and Realist Evaluation used in food security contexts? A scoping review.

The complex ways in which food security actions lead to nutrition and other health outcomes make it important to clarify what programs work and how, with theory-driven evaluation emerging as a promising approach to evaluate complex programs. However, it is unclear how and why theory-driven evaluation is applied in food security contexts. Our objective is to examine the development and use of Theory of Change and Realist Evaluation to support food security programs globally. Using a systematic search and screening process, we included studies that described a food security program, used a Theory of Change or Realist Evaluation, and presented original research or evaluations. We found a total of 59 relevant Theory of Change studies and eight Realist Evaluation studies. Based on our analysis, Theories of Change arose in response to three main problems: 1) the need to evaluate under complexity; 2) challenges with evaluation; and, 3) information gaps surrounding a program. In contrast, Realist Evaluation was reported to be developed primarily to understand a program's outcomes. Reflecting on the problem to be addressed in the evaluation would help improve understandings of the evaluation context, which would then inform the choice and design of an evaluation approach.