Diversity-stability relationships across organism groups and ecosystem types become decoupled across spatial scales.

The relationship between biodiversity and stability, or its inverse, temporal variability, is multidimensional and complex. Temporal variability in aggregate properties, like total biomass or abundance, is typically lower in communities with higher species diversity (i.e., the diversity-stability relationship [DSR]). At broader spatial extents, regional-scale aggregate variability is also lower with higher regional diversity (in plant systems) and with lower spatial synchrony. However, focusing exclusively on aggregate properties of communities may overlook potentially destabilizing compositional shifts. It is not yet clear how diversity is related to different components of variability across spatial scales, nor whether regional DSRs emerge across a broad range of organisms and ecosystem types. To test these questions, we compiled a large collection of long-term metacommunity data spanning a wide range of taxonomic groups (e.g., birds, fish, plants, invertebrates) and ecosystem types (e.g., deserts, forests, oceans). We applied a newly developed quantitative framework for jointly analyzing aggregate and compositional variability across scales. We quantified DSRs for composition and aggregate variability in local communities and metacommunities. At the local scale, more diverse communities were less variable, but this effect was stronger for aggregate than compositional properties. We found no stabilizing effect of γ-diversity on metacommunity variability, but ß-diversity played a strong role in reducing compositional spatial synchrony, which reduced regional variability. Spatial synchrony differed among taxa, suggesting differences in stabilization by spatial processes. However, metacommunity variability was more strongly driven by local variability than by spatial synchrony. Across a broader range of taxa, our results suggest that high γ-diversity does not consistently stabilize aggregate properties at regional scales without sufficient spatial ß-diversity to reduce spatial synchrony.

Evidence, causes, and consequences of declining nitrogen availability in terrestrial ecosystems.

The productivity of ecosystems and their capacity to support life depends on access to reactive nitrogen (N). Over the past century, humans have more than doubled the global supply of reactive N through industrial and agricultural activities. However, long-term records demonstrate that N availability is declining in many regions of the world. Reactive N inputs are not evenly distributed, and global changes-including elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels and rising temperatures-are affecting ecosystem N supply relative to demand. Declining N availability is constraining primary productivity, contributing to lower leaf N concentrations, and reducing the quality of herbivore diets in many ecosystems. We outline the current state of knowledge about declining N availability and propose actions aimed at characterizing and responding to this emerging challenge.

The long and the short of it: Mechanisms of synchronous and compensatory dynamics across temporal scales.

Synchronous dynamics (fluctuations that occur in unison) are universal phenomena with widespread implications for ecological stability. Synchronous dynamics can amplify the destabilizing effect of environmental variability on ecosystem functions such as productivity, whereas the inverse, compensatory dynamics, can stabilize function. Here we combine simulation and empirical analyses to elucidate mechanisms that underlie patterns of synchronous versus compensatory dynamics. In both simulated and empirical communities, we show that synchronous and compensatory dynamics are not mutually exclusive but instead can vary by timescale. Our simulations identify multiple mechanisms that can generate timescale-specific patterns, including different environmental drivers, diverse life histories, dispersal, and non-stationary dynamics. We find that traditional metrics for quantifying synchronous dynamics are often biased toward long-term drivers and may miss the importance of short-term drivers. Our findings indicate key mechanisms to consider when assessing synchronous versus compensatory dynamics and our approach provides a pathway for disentangling these dynamics in natural systems.

The spatial synchrony of species richness and its relationship to ecosystem stability.

Synchrony is broadly important to population and community dynamics due to its ubiquity and implications for extinction dynamics, system stability, and species diversity. Investigations of synchrony in community ecology have tended to focus on covariance in the abundances of multiple species in a single location. Yet, the importance of regional environmental variation and spatial processes in community dynamics suggests that community properties, such as species richness, could fluctuate synchronously across patches in a metacommunity, in an analog of population spatial synchrony. Here, we test the prevalence of this phenomenon and the conditions under which it may occur using theoretical simulations and empirical data from 20 marine and terrestrial metacommunities. Additionally, given the importance of biodiversity for stability of ecosystem function, we posit that spatial synchrony in species richness is strongly related to stability. Our findings show that metacommunities often exhibit spatial synchrony in species richness. We also found that richness synchrony can be driven by environmental stochasticity and dispersal, two mechanisms of population spatial synchrony. Richness synchrony also depended on community structure, including species evenness and beta diversity. Strikingly, ecosystem stability was more strongly related to richness synchrony than to species richness itself, likely because richness synchrony integrates information about community processes and environmental forcing. Our study highlights a new approach for studying spatiotemporal community dynamics and emphasizes the spatial dimensions of community dynamics and stability.

Asymmetric biotic interactions and abiotic niche differences revealed by a dynamic joint species distribution model.

A species' distribution and abundance are determined by abiotic conditions and biotic interactions with other species in the community. Most species distribution models correlate the occurrence of a single species with environmental variables only, and leave out biotic interactions. To test the importance of biotic interactions on occurrence and abundance, we compared a multivariate spatiotemporal model of the joint abundance of two invasive insects that share a host plant, hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae) and elongate hemlock scale (EHS; Fiorina externa), to independent models that do not account for dependence among co-occurring species. The joint model revealed that HWA responded more strongly to abiotic conditions than EHS. Additionally, HWA appeared to predispose stands to subsequent increase of EHS, but HWA abundance was not strongly dependent on EHS abundance. This study demonstrates how incorporating spatial and temporal dependence into a species distribution model can reveal the dependence of a species' abundance on other species in the community. Accounting for dependence among co-occurring species with a joint distribution model can also improve estimation of the abiotic niche for species affected by interspecific interactions.

Short-term responses to warming vary between native vs. exotic species and with latitude in an early successional plant community.

Climate change is expected to favor exotic plant species over native species, because exotics tend to have wider climatic tolerances and greater phenological plasticity, and also because climate change may intensify enemy release. Here, we examine direct effects of warming (+ 1.8 °C above ambient) on plant abundance and phenology, as well as indirect effects of warming propagated through herbivores, in two heavily invaded plant communities in Michigan, USA, separated by approximately three degrees latitude. At the northern site, warming increased exotic plant abundance by 19% but decreased native plant abundance by 31%, indicating that exotic species may be favored in a warmer world. Warming also resulted in earlier spring green-up (1.65 ± 0.77 days), earlier flowering (2.18 ± 0.92 days), and greater damage by herbivores (twofold increase), affecting exotic and native species equally. Contrary to expectations, native and exotic plants experienced similar amounts of herbivory. Warming did not have strong ecological effects at the southern site, only resulting in a delay of flowering time by 2.42 ± 0.83 days for both native and exotic species. Consistent with the enemy release hypothesis, exotic plants experienced less herbivory than native plants at the southern site. Herbivory was lower under warming for both exotic and native species at the southern site. Thus, climate warming may favor exotic over native plant species, but the response is likely to depend on additional environmental and individual species' traits.

Incorporating Context Dependency of Species Interactions in Species Distribution Models.

SYNOPSIS: Species distribution models typically use correlative approaches that characterize the species-environment relationship using occurrence or abundance data for a single species. However, species distributions are determined by both abiotic conditions and biotic interactions with other species in the community. Therefore, climate change is expected to impact species through direct effects on their physiology and indirect effects propagated through their resources, predators, competitors, or mutualists. Furthermore, the sign and strength of species interactions can change according to abiotic conditions, resulting in context-dependent species interactions that may change across space or with climate change. Here, we incorporated the context dependency of species interactions into a dynamic species distribution model. We developed a multi-species model that uses a time-series of observational survey data to evaluate how abiotic conditions and species interactions affect the dynamics of three rocky intertidal species. The model further distinguishes between the direct effects of abiotic conditions on abundance and the indirect effects propagated through interactions with other species. We apply the model to keystone predation by the sea star Pisaster ochraceus on the mussel Mytilus californianus and the barnacle Balanus glandula in the rocky intertidal zone of the Pacific coast, USA. Our method indicated that biotic interactions between P. ochraceus and B. glandula affected B. glandula dynamics across >1000 km of coastline. Consistent with patterns from keystone predation, the growth rate of B. glandula varied according to the abundance of P. ochraceus in the previous year. The data and the model did not indicate that the strength of keystone predation by P. ochraceus varied with a mean annual upwelling index. Balanus glandula cover increased following years with high phytoplankton abundance measured as mean annual chlorophyll-a. M. californianus exhibited the same pattern to a lesser degree, although this pattern was not significant. This work bridges the disciplines of biogeography and community ecology to develop tools to better understand the direct and indirect effects of abiotic conditions on ecological communities.

Density-Dependent Recruitment and Diapause in the Spring-Feeding Generation of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Hemiptera: Adelgidae) in Western North America.

Insect populations are affected by density-dependent and density-independent factors, and knowing how these factors affect long-term population growth is critical to pest management. In this study, we experimentally manipulated densities of the hemlock woolly adelgid on eastern and western hemlock trees in the western USA to evaluate the effects of density and host species on hemlock woolly adelgid crawler colonization. We then followed development of hemlock woolly adelgid on each hemlock species. Settlement of crawlers was strongly density-dependent and consistent between host species. In addition, a period of hot days that coincided with the settlement of hemlock woolly adelgid crawlers put our experimental and naturally occurring populations into diapause during April. Diapause resulted in one generation that yr in our experimental population. Analyses of long-term air temperature records indicated that diapause-inducing temperatures in April similar to those observed in our experiment have occurred rarely since 1909 and the frequency of these events has not changed over time. Prior work suggests that hemlock woolly adelgid completes two generations per yr in the western USA with a diapause occurring in the summer. This typical life history reflects the long-term influence of regional average seasonal temperature patterns on development and the timing of diapause-inducing temperatures. However, the timing of unseasonal weather, such as the hot days observed in our experiment, occasionally changes life history trajectories from this normal pattern. Our results show that density-dependent and density-independent factors have strong effects on generational mortality and life history of hemlock woolly adelgid that are important to its population dynamics and management.

Warm springs, early lay dates, and double brooding in a North American migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler.

Numerous studies have correlated the advancement of lay date in birds with warming climate trends, yet the fitness effects associated with this phenological response have been examined in only a small number of species. Most of these species--primarily insectivorous cavity nesters in Europe--exhibit fitness declines associated with increasing asynchrony with prey. Here, we use 25 years of demographic data, collected from 1986 to 2010, to examine the effects of spring temperature on breeding initiation date, double brooding, and annual fecundity in a Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens). Data were collected from birds breeding at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA, where long-term trends toward warmer springs have been recorded. We found that black-throated blue warblers initiated breeding earlier in warmer springs, that early breeders were more likely to attempt a second brood than those starting later in the season, and that double brooding and lay date were linked to higher annual fecundity. Accordingly, we found selection favored earlier breeding in most years. However, in contrast to studies of several other long-distance migratory species in Europe, this selection pressure was not stronger in warmer springs, indicating that these warblers were able to adjust mean lay date appropriately to substantial inter-annual variation in spring temperature. Our results suggest that this North American migratory songbird might not experience the same fecundity declines as songbirds that are unable to adjust their timing of breeding in pace with spring temperatures.