Clinician Prediction of Early Readmission Among Kidney and Liver Transplant Recipients.

Introduction: Patients are at risk of hospital readmission after kidney and liver transplantation due to the complexity of posttransplant care. Currently, clinical practice relies on providers' prediction since there is a lack of specific strategies. However, the accuracy of clinicians' ability to predict readmissions using clinical judgment alone is unknown. Research Question: What is the accuracy of clinicians' ability to predict readmissions after transplantation using clinical judgment alone? Design: In 2019, clinical providers at a large, urban transplant center were electronically surveyed. Primary surgeons, nephrologists, transplant pharmacists, hepatologists, and nurses were asked, within 24 h of any kidney or liver transplant recipient discharge, to predict whether a patient would be readmitted within 30 days, and the suspected causes of readmission. Prediction accuracy was assessed by sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and F-score. Kappa scores were calculated to assess agreement between transplant surgeons and other providers. Results: Overall, N = 34 unique providers were surveyed about 148 kidney and 63 liver transplant recipients, and 27.0% of kidney recipients and 25.4% of liver recipients were readmitted within 30 days. The positive predictive values were low among clinical providers, ranging from 0.25 to 0.55. Agreements between providers were weak, but higher among kidney transplant providers (range: 0.42-0.44) than for liver transplant providers (range: -0.02-0.26). Conclusion: Clinical judgment alone to predict readmission among transplant recipients may not be sufficient and a combination of clinicians' predictions, multitiered discharge surveillance strategies and data-based predictive models may better identify high-risk patients and guide interventions to reduce readmission.

Implementation of the ASCENT Trial to Improve Transplant Waitlisting Access.

Introduction: The Allocation System for changes in Equity in Kidney Transplantation (ASCENT) study was a hybrid type 1 trial of a multicomponent intervention among 655 US dialysis facilities with low kidney transplant waitlisting to educate staff and patients about kidney allocation system (KAS) changes and increase access to and reduce racial disparities in waitlisting. Intervention components included a staff webinar, patient and staff educational videos, and facility-specific feedback reports. Methods: Implementation outcomes were assessed using the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance Framework. Postimplementation surveys were administered among intervention group facilities (n = 334); interviews were conducted with facility staff (n = 6). High implementation was defined as using 3 to 4 intervention components, low implementation as using 1 to 2 components, and nonimplementation as using no components. Results: A total of 331 (99%) facilities completed the survey; 57% were high implementers, 31% were low implementers, and 12% were nonimplementers. Waitlisting events were higher or similar among high versus low implementer facilities for incident and prevalent populations; for Black incident patients, the mean proportion waitlisted in low implementer facilities was 0.80% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.73-0.87) at baseline and 0.55% at 1-year (95% CI: 0.48-0.62) versus 0.83% (95% CI: 0.78-0.88) at baseline and 1.40% at 1-year (95% CI: 1.35-1.45) in high implementer facilities. Interviews revealed that the intervention helped facilities prioritize transplant education, but that intervention components were not uniformly shared. Conclusion: The findings provide important context to interpret ASCENT effectiveness results and identified key barriers and facilitators to consider for future modification and scale-up of multilevel, multicomponent interventions in dialysis settings.

Association between early care and education centres policies and practices and children's healthy behaviours.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the impact of nutritional and physical activity (PA) policies and practices at early care and education centres on behavioural changes among children ages 2-5. METHODS: The study population included 586 children from 25 education centres throughout the state of Georgia. Policies and practices were measured using the Georgia Nutrition and PA Assessment at the start of school year in Fall 2017. Survey data were collected at the beginning of school year September/October 2017 and at the end of school year April/May 2018 to measure changes in children's nutritional and PA behaviour over the school year. We used generalised estimating equations to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Children at centres with a high nutrition assessment score had higher odds of increasing vegetable consumption (OR = 2.1; 95% CI: 1.1, 4.0) while the odds of increasing fruit (OR = 1.4; 95% CI: 0.8, 2.4) and water (OR = 1.2; 95% CI: 0.5, 2.7) consumption increased non-significantly. The odds of improving PA were similar between children at centres with a high versus a low PA assessment score. CONCLUSION: The results, though insignificant, indicate that policies and practices could influence children's health behaviours. Further research is warranted to examine whether improvements in policies and practices could explain changes in children's health behaviours, the impact of educator's knowledge on children's health behaviours and the implementation of and adherence to policy and practice improvement plans.

Predicting Kidney Transplant Recipient Cohorts' 30-Day Rehospitalization Using Clinical Notes and Electronic Health Care Record Data.

Introduction: Rehospitalization after kidney transplant is costly to patients and health care systems and is associated with poor outcomes. Few prediction model studies have examined whether inclusion of clinical notes data from the electronic medical record (EMR) enhances prediction of rehospitalization. Methods: In a retrospective, observational study of first-time, adult kidney transplant recipients at a large, urban hospital in southeastern United States (2005-2015), we examined 30-day rehospitalization (30DR) using structured EMR and unstructured (i.e., clinical notes) data. We used natural language processing (NLP) methods on 8 types of clinical notes and included terms in predictive models using unsupervised machine learning approaches. Both the area under the receiver operating curve and precision-recall curve (ROC and PRC, respectively) were used to determine and compare model accuracy, and 5-fold cross-validation tested model performance. Results: Among 2060 kidney transplant recipients, 30.7% were readmitted within 30 days. Predictive models using clinical notes did not meaningfully improve performance over previous models using structured data alone (ROC 0.6821; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.6644, 0.6998). Predictive models built using solely clinical notes performed worse than models using both clinical notes and structured data. The data that contributed to the top performing models were not identical but both included structured data and progress notes (ROC 0.6902; 95% CI: 0.6699, 0.7105). Conclusions: Including new features from clinical notes in risk prediction models did not substantially increase predictive accuracy for 30DR for kidney transplant recipients. Future research should consider pooling data from multiple institutions to increase sample size and avoid overfitting models.

The ASCENT Intervention to Improve Access and Reduce Racial Inequalities in Kidney Waitlisting: A Randomized, Effectiveness-Implementation Trial.

BACKGROUND: The US kidney allocation system (KAS) changed in 2014, but dialysis facility staff (including nephrologists, social workers, nurse managers, and facility administrators) had low awareness of how this policy change could affect their patients' access to transplant. We assessed the effectiveness of a multicomponent and multilevel educational and outreach intervention targeting US dialysis facilities with low waitlisting, with a goal of increasing waitlisting and reducing Black versus White racial disparities in waitlisting. METHODS: The Allocation System Changes for Equity in Kidney Transplantation (ASCENT) study was a cluster-randomized, pragmatic, multilevel, effectiveness-implementation trial including 655 US dialysis facilities with low waitlisting, randomized to receive either the ASCENT intervention (a performance feedback report, a webinar, and staff and patient educational videos) or an educational brochure. Absolute and relative differences in coprimary outcomes (1-year waitlisting and racial differences in waitlisting) were reported among incident and prevalent patients. RESULTS: Among 56,332 prevalent patients, 1-year waitlisting decreased for patients in control facilities (2.72%-2.56%) and remained the same for patients in intervention facilities (2.68%-2.75%). However, the proportion of prevalent Black patients waitlisted in the ASCENT interventions increased from baseline to 1 year (2.52%-2.78%), whereas it remained the same for White patients in the ASCENT intervention facilities (2.66%-2.69%). Among incident patients in ASCENT facilities, 1-year waitlisting increased among Black patients (from 0.87% to 1.07%) but declined among White patients (from 1.54% to 1.27%). Significant racial disparities in waitlisting were observed at baseline, with incident Black patients in ASCENT facilities less likely to waitlist compared with White patients (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.35 to 0.92), but 1 year after the intervention, this racial disparity was attenuated (aOR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.49 to 1.42). CONCLUSIONS: The ASCENT intervention may have a small effect on extending the reach of the new KAS policy by attenuating racial disparities in waitlisting among a population of US dialysis facilities with low waitlisting. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME AND REGISTRATION NUMBER: National Institutes of Health ( NCT02879812 ). PODCAST: This article contains a podcast at https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2023_03_08_CJN09760822.mp3.

The Use of a Self-triage Tool to Predict COVID-19 Cases and Hospitalizations in the State of Georgia.

INTRODUCTION: The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has created significant burden on healthcare systems throughout the world. Syndromic surveillance, which collects real-time data based on a range of symptoms rather than laboratory diagnoses, can help provide timely information in emergency response. We examined the effectiveness of a web-based COVID-19 symptom checking tool (C19Check) in the state of Georgia (GA) in predicting COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. METHODS: We analyzed C19Check use data, COVID-19 cases, and hospitalizations from April 22-November 28, 2020. Cases and hospitalizations in GA were extracted from the Georgia Department of Public Health data repository. We used the Granger causality test to assess whether including C19Check data can improve predictions compared to using previous COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations data alone. Vector autoregression (VAR) models were fitted to forecast cases and hospitalizations from November 29 - December 12, 2020. We calculated mean absolute percentage error to estimate the errors in forecast of cases and hospitalizations. RESULTS: There were 25,861 C19Check uses in GA from April 22-November 28, 2020. Time-lags tested in Granger causality test for cases (6-8 days) and hospitalizations (10-12 days) were significant (P= <0.05); the mean absolute percentage error of fitted VAR models were 39.63% and 15.86%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The C19Check tool was able to help predict COVID-19 cases and related hospitalizations in GA. In settings where laboratory tests are limited, a real-time, symptom-based assessment tool can provide timely and inexpensive data for syndromic surveillance to guide pandemic response. Findings from this study demonstrate that online symptom-checking tools can be a source of data for syndromic surveillance, and the data may help improve predictions of cases and hospitalizations.

Functional disabilities and changes in sleep quality and duration among older adults: results from a longitudinal study in China, 2005-2014.

PURPOSE: We examined the associations of activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) with changes in sleep-related measurements among Chinese older adults from 2005 to 2014. METHODS: Four waves of longitudinal data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS; 2005-2014; n = 42,417) were used. Two sleep-related measurements were included: sleep quality and meeting the recommended daily sleep duration (7-8 h). We used Cox two-state regression models to examine the different states of sleep quality and duration. RESULTS: Approximately 43.6% of observations were between 81 and 95 years old, and 35.9% were between 65 and 80 years old. Around 54.8% of observations were female. Older adults with more ADL and IADL limitations had a higher risk of experiencing declines in sleep quality and the transition from meeting to not meeting the recommended sleep duration over time (all p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: ADL and IADL limitations are significant risk factors for the development of sleep-related issues over time among Chinese older adults. Functional limitations need to be included in intervention strategies focused on sleep hygiene and studies examining changes in sleep patterns over time.

A 10-year Trend of Sleeping Patterns, Geographical, and Community Disparities Among Chinese Older Adults.

This study examined the trend and geographical/community disparities of sleeping patterns among Chinese older adults. We included older adults from four waves of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS; n = 25,672; age ≥65). We used a multivariable logistic regression model to examine sleep quality (not good versus good), and a multinomial logistic regression model to assess daily sleep duration (7-8 hr, <7 hr, >8 hr). Older adults from the Central/South and the West regions were less likely to report good sleep quality (AOR [adjusted odds ratio] = .63, 95% CI: .55, .72 and AOR = .80, 95% CI: .70, .93, respectively) while the Northeastern residents reported better sleep quality (AOR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.27, 1.79), compared with Northern residents. Older adults from Central/South and West were more likely to obtain less than 7 hr of sleep. Public health interventions are necessary to improve the sleep of Chinese older adults.

Dialysis Facility Profit Status and Early Steps in Kidney Transplantation in the Southeastern United States.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Dialysis facilities in the United States play a key role in access to kidney transplantation. Previous studies reported that patients treated at for-profit facilities are less likely to be waitlisted and receive a transplant, but their effect on early steps in the transplant process is unknown. The study's objective was to determine the association between dialysis facility profit status and critical steps in the transplantation process in Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: In this retrospective cohort study, we linked referral and evaluation data from all nine transplant centers in the Southeast with United States Renal Data System surveillance data. The cohort study included 33,651 patients with kidney failure initiating dialysis from January 1, 2012 to August 31, 2016. Patients were censored for event (date of referral, evaluation, or waitlisting), death, or end of study (August 31, 2017 for referral and March 1, 2018 for evaluation and waitlisting). The primary exposure was dialysis facility profit status: for profit versus nonprofit. The primary outcome was referral for evaluation at a transplant center after dialysis initiation. Secondary outcomes were start of evaluation at a transplant center after referral and waitlisting. RESULTS: Of the 33,651 patients with incident kidney failure, most received dialysis treatment at a for-profit facility (85%). For-profit (versus nonprofit) facilities had a lower cumulative incidence difference for referral within 1 year of dialysis (-4.5%; 95% confidence interval, -6.0% to -3.2%). In adjusted analyses, for-profit versus nonprofit facilities had lower referral (hazard ratio, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.80 to 0.88). Start of evaluation within 6 months of referral (-1.0%; 95% confidence interval, -3.1% to 1.3%) and waitlisting within 6 months of evaluation (1.0%; 95% confidence interval, -1.2 to 3.3) did not meaningfully differ between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest lower access to referral among patients dialyzing in for-profit facilities in the Southeast United States, but no difference in starting the evaluation and waitlisting by facility profit status.

Are older adults' home exposures to secondhand smoking during earlier life stages associated with current health status and life satisfaction in China? A multilevel approach.

Secondhand smoking (SHS) has become a critical challenge in Chinese society, and progress on SHS prevention remains unknown. There is little knowledge targeting Chinese older adults generally to investigate the associations between SHS exposure experiences during earlier life stages and health-related measurements. Using cross-sectional data from a nationally representative data set, the 2014 wave of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (n = 4,414), multilevel logistic regression models with random effects for Chinese provinces were used for analyses. Two health-related measurements included self-reported health status and life satisfaction. All regression models included the same set of predictors and covariates with socioeconomic factors and basic biological information. Approximately 40% and 47% of older adults reported SHS exposure in childhood and in younger adulthood at home, respectively. Older adults with SHS exposure in childhood had lower odds of reporting better health status, compared with those who did not have such exposure (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.69, 95% CI [0.55, 0.86], p < .01). However, life satisfaction was not associated with any SHS exposure experiences. Policy makers and public health practitioners should continue to investigate the long-term effect of SHS exposure on human health, including older adults. Policy regarding SHS prevention should be enhanced.