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1.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 1793, 2024 Jul 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38970066

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Tick-borne diseases are a growing public health threat in the United States. Despite the prevalence and rising burden of tick-borne diseases, there are major gaps in baseline knowledge and surveillance efforts for tick vectors, even among vector control districts and public health agencies. To address this issue, an online tick training course (OTTC) was developed through the Southeastern Center of Excellence in Vector-Borne Diseases (SECOEVBD) to provide a comprehensive knowledge base on ticks, tick-borne diseases, and their management. METHODS: The OTTC consisted of training modules covering topics including tick biology, tick identification, tick-borne diseases, and public health, personal tick safety, and tick surveillance. The course was largely promoted to vector control specialists and public health employees throughout the Southeastern US. We collected assessment and survey data on participants to gauge learning outcomes, perceptions of the utility of knowledge gained, and barriers and facilitators to applying the knowledge in the field. RESULTS: The OTTC was successful in increasing participants' baseline knowledge across all course subject areas, with the average score on assessment increasing from 62.6% (pre-course) to 86.7% (post-course). More than half of participants (63.6%) indicated that they would definitely use information from the course in their work. Barriers to using information identified in the delayed assessment included lack of opportunities to apply skills (18.5%) and the need for additional specialized training beyond what the OTTC currently offers (18.5%), while the main facilitator (70.4%) for applying knowledge was having opportunities at work, such as an existing tick surveillance program. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, this OTTC demonstrated capacity to improve knowledge in a necessary and underserved public health field, and more than half of participants use or plan to use the information in their work. The geographic reach of this online resource was much larger than simply for the Southeastern region for which it was designed, suggesting a much broader need for this resource. Understanding the utility and penetrance of training programs such as these is important for refining materials and assessing optimal targets for training.


Asunto(s)
Conocimientos, Actitudes y Práctica en Salud , Enfermedades por Picaduras de Garrapatas , Humanos , Sudeste de Estados Unidos , Enfermedades por Picaduras de Garrapatas/prevención & control , Animales , Garrapatas , Masculino , Internet , Femenino , Control de Ácaros y Garrapatas/métodos , Evaluación de Programas y Proyectos de Salud , Educación a Distancia/métodos , Adulto
3.
Parasit Vectors ; 16(1): 302, 2023 Aug 28.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37641089

RESUMEN

Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an increasingly common approach to explore questions about ecology, geography, outbreak risk, and global change as they relate to infectious disease vectors. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature, screening 563 abstracts and identifying 204 studies that used SDMs to produce distribution estimates for mosquito species. While the number of studies employing SDM methods has increased markedly over the past decade, the overwhelming majority used a single method (maximum entropy modeling; MaxEnt) and focused on human infectious disease vectors or their close relatives. The majority of regional models were developed for areas in Africa and Asia, while more localized modeling efforts were most common for North America and Europe. Findings from this study highlight gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and methodological foci of current SDM literature for mosquitoes that can guide future efforts to study the geography of mosquito-borne disease risk.


Asunto(s)
Culicidae , Mosquitos Vectores , Humanos , Animales , África/epidemiología , Asia/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades
4.
Lancet Planet Health ; 7(6): e527-e536, 2023 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37286249

RESUMEN

Climate-sensitive infectious disease modelling is crucial for public health planning and is underpinned by a complex network of software tools. We identified only 37 tools that incorporated both climate inputs and epidemiological information to produce an output of disease risk in one package, were transparently described and validated, were named (for future searching and versioning), and were accessible (ie, the code was published during the past 10 years or was available on a repository, web platform, or other user interface). We noted disproportionate representation of developers based at North American and European institutions. Most tools (n=30 [81%]) focused on vector-borne diseases, and more than half (n=16 [53%]) of these tools focused on malaria. Few tools (n=4 [11%]) focused on food-borne, respiratory, or water-borne diseases. The under-representation of tools for estimating outbreaks of directly transmitted diseases represents a major knowledge gap. Just over half (n=20 [54%]) of the tools assessed were described as operationalised, with many freely available online.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedades Transmisibles , Malaria , Estados Unidos , Humanos , Enfermedades Transmisibles/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades , Salud Pública , Malaria/epidemiología , Programas Informáticos
5.
Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis ; 23(6): 316-323, 2023 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37083463

RESUMEN

Background: Understanding the geographic distribution of Rickettsia montanensis infections in Dermacentor variabilis is important for tick-borne disease management in the United States, as both a tick-borne agent of interest and a potential confounder in surveillance of other rickettsial diseases. Two previous studies modeled niche suitability for D. variabilis with and without R. montanensis, from 2002 to 2012, indicating that the D. variabilis niche overestimates the infected niche. This study updates these, adding data since 2012. Methods: Newer surveillance and testing data were used to update Species Distribution Models (SDMs) of D. variabilis, and R. montanensis-infected D. variabilis, in the United States. Using random forest models, found to perform best in previous work, we updated the SDMs and compared them with prior results. Warren's I niche overlap metric was used to compare between predicted suitability for all ticks and "R. montanensis-positive niche" models across datasets. Results: Warren's I indicated <2% change in predicted niche, and there was no change in order of importance of environmental predictors, for D. variabilis or R. montanensis-positive niche. The updated D. variabilis niche model overpredicted suitability compared with the updated R. montanensis-positive niche in key peripheral parts of the range, but slightly underpredicted through the northern and midwestern parts of the range. This reinforces previous findings of a more constrained R. montanensis-positive niche than predicted by D. variabilis records alone. Conclusions: The consistency of predicted niche suitability for D. variabilis in the United States, with the addition of nearly a decade of new data, corroborates this is a species with generalist habitat requirements. Yet a slight shift in updated niche distribution, even of low suitability, included more southern areas, pointing to a need for continued and extended monitoring and surveillance. This further underscores the importance of revisiting vector and vector-borne disease distribution maps.


Asunto(s)
Dermacentor , Enfermedades de los Perros , Ixodidae , Rhipicephalus sanguineus , Infecciones por Rickettsia , Rickettsia , Rickettsiaceae , Perros , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Animales , Rickettsiales , Dermacentor/microbiología , Infecciones por Rickettsia/epidemiología , Infecciones por Rickettsia/veterinaria
6.
Malar J ; 22(1): 104, 2023 Mar 21.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36945014

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Anopheles stephensi is a malaria-transmitting mosquito that has recently expanded from its primary range in Asia and the Middle East, to locations in Africa. This species is a competent vector of both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. Perhaps most alarming, the characteristics of An. stephensi, such as container breeding and anthropophily, make it particularly adept at exploiting built environments in areas with no prior history of malaria risk. METHODS: In this paper, global maps of thermal transmission suitability and people at risk (PAR) for malaria transmission by An. stephensi were created, under current and future climate. Temperature-dependent transmission suitability thresholds derived from recently published species-specific thermal curves were used to threshold gridded, monthly mean temperatures under current and future climatic conditions. These temperature driven transmission models were coupled with gridded population data for 2020 and 2050, under climate-matched scenarios for future outcomes, to compare with baseline predictions for 2020 populations. RESULTS: Using the Global Burden of Disease regions approach revealed that heterogenous regional increases and decreases in risk did not mask the overall pattern of massive increases of PAR for malaria transmission suitability with An. stephensi presence. General patterns of poleward expansion for thermal suitability were seen for both P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission potential. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the potential suitability for An. stephensi transmission in a changing climate provides a key tool for planning, given an ongoing invasion and expansion of the vector. Anticipating the potential impact of onward expansion to transmission suitable areas, and the size of population at risk under future climate scenarios, and where they occur, can serve as a large-scale call for attention, planning, and monitoring.


Asunto(s)
Anopheles , Malaria Falciparum , Malaria Vivax , Malaria , Humanos , Animales , Malaria/epidemiología , Malaria Falciparum/epidemiología , Plasmodium falciparum , África/epidemiología , Mosquitos Vectores
7.
J Med Entomol ; 60(2): 247-254, 2023 03 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36752771

RESUMEN

A growing body of information on vector-borne diseases has arisen as increasing research focus has been directed towards the need for anticipating risk, optimizing surveillance, and understanding the fundamental biology of vector-borne diseases to direct control and mitigation efforts. The scope and scale of this information, in the form of data, comprising database efforts, data storage, and serving approaches, means that it is distributed across many formats and data types. Data ranges from collections records to molecular characterization, geospatial data to interactions of vectors and traits, infection experiments to field trials. New initiatives arise, often spanning the effort traditionally siloed in specific research disciplines, and other efforts wane, perhaps in response to funding declines, different research directions, or lack of sustained interest. Thusly, the world of vector data - the Vector Data Ecosystem - can become unclear in scope, and the flows of data through these various efforts can become stymied by obsolescence, or simply by gaps in access and interoperability. As increasing attention is paid to creating FAIR (Findable Accessible Interoperable, and Reusable) data, simply characterizing what is 'out there', and how these existing data aggregation and collection efforts interact, or interoperate with each other, is a useful exercise. This study presents a snapshot of current vector data efforts, reporting on level of accessibility, and commenting on interoperability using an illustration to track a specimen through the data ecosystem to understand where it occurs for the database efforts anticipated to describe it (or parts of its extended specimen data).


Asunto(s)
Ecosistema , Enfermedades Transmitidas por Vectores , Animales , Bases de Datos Factuales
8.
bioRxiv ; 2023 Jan 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36711596

RESUMEN

Background: Understanding the geographic distribution of Rickettsia montanensis infections in Dermacentor variabilis is important for tick-borne disease management in the United States, as both a tick-borne agent of interest and a potential confounder in surveillance of other rickettsial diseases. Two previous studies modeled niche suitability for D. variabilis with and without R. montanensis , from 2002-2012, indicating that the D. variabilis niche overestimates the infected niche. This study updates these, adding data since 2012. Methods: Newer surveillance and testing data were used to update Species Distribution Models (SDMs) of D. variabilis , and R. montanensis infected D. variabilis , in the United States. Using random forest (RF) models, found to perform best in previous work, we updated the SDMs and compared them with prior results. Warren's I niche overlap metric was used to compare between predicted suitability for all ticks and 'pathogen positive niche' models across datasets. Results: Warren's I indicated <2% change in predicted niche, and there was no change in order of importance of environmental predictors, for D. variabilis or R. montanensis positive niche. The updated D. variabilis niche model overpredicted suitability compared to the updated R. montanensis positive niche in key peripheral parts of the range, but slightly underpredicted through the northern and midwestern parts of the range. This reinforces previous findings of a more constrained pathogen-positive niche than predicted by D. variabilis records alone. Conclusions: The consistency of predicted niche suitability for D. variabilis in the United States, with the addition of nearly a decade of new data, corroborates this is a species with generalist habitat requirements. Yet a slight shift in updated niche distribution, even of low suitability, included more southern areas, pointing to a need for continued and extended monitoring and surveillance. This further underscores the importance of revisiting vector and vector-borne disease distribution maps.

10.
BMJ Glob Health ; 7(1)2022 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34992079

RESUMEN

Over the past decade, the Caribbean region has been challenged by compound climate and health hazards, including tropical storms, extreme heat and droughts and overlapping epidemics of mosquito-borne diseases, including dengue, chikungunya and Zika. Early warning systems (EWS) are a key climate change adaptation strategy for the health sector. An EWS can integrate climate information in forecasting models to predict the risk of disease outbreaks several weeks or months in advance. In this article, we share our experiences of co-learning during the process of co-creating a dengue EWS for the health sector in Barbados, and we discuss barriers to implementation as well as key opportunities. This process has involved bringing together health and climate practitioners with transdisciplinary researchers to jointly identify needs and priorities, assess available data, co-create an early warning tool, gather feedback via national and regional consultations and conduct trainings. Implementation is ongoing and our team continues to be committed to a long-term process of collaboration. Developing strong partnerships, particularly between the climate and health sectors in Barbados, has been a critical part of the research and development. In many countries, the national climate and health sectors have not worked together in a sustained or formal manner. This collaborative process has purposefully pushed us out of our comfort zone, challenging us to venture beyond our institutional and disciplinary silos. Through the co-creation of the EWS, we anticipate that the Barbados health system will be better able to mainstream climate information into decision-making processes using tailored tools, such as epidemic forecast reports, risk maps and climate-health bulletins, ultimately increasing the resilience of the health system.


Asunto(s)
Dengue , Infección por el Virus Zika , Virus Zika , Animales , Barbados , Dengue/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Humanos , Infección por el Virus Zika/epidemiología
11.
Lancet Reg Health Am ; 11: 100231, 2022 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36778921

RESUMEN

Background: Simultaneous dengue virus (DENV) and West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks in Florida, USA, in 2020 resulted in 71 dengue virus serotype 1 and 86 WNV human cases. We hypothesized that we would find a number of DENV-1 positive mosquito pools, and that the distribution of these arbovirus-positive mosquito pools would be associated with those neighborhoods for which imported DENV cases have been recently reported in 2019 and 2020. Methods: We collected and screened Aedes aegypti, Ae. albopictus, Anopheles crucians, Culex coronator, Cx. nigripalpus, and Cx. quinquefasciatus mosquitoes from Miami-Dade County (Florida) for DENV and WNV by rRT-qPCR. Spatial statistical analyses were performed to capture positive mosquito pool distribution in relation to land use, human demography, environmental variables, mosquito trap placement and reported human travel associated DENV cases to guide future mosquito control outbreak responses. Findings: A rapid screen of 7,668 mosquitoes detected four DENV serotype 2 (DENV-2), nine DENV-4 and nine WNV-positive mosquito pools, which enabled swift and targeted abatement of trap sites by mosquito control. As expected, DENV-positive pools were in urban areas; however, we found WNV-positive mosquito pools in agricultural and recreational areas with no historical reports of WNV transmission. Interpretation: These findings demonstrate the importance of proactive arbovirus surveillance in mosquito populations to prevent and control outbreaks, particularly when other illnesses (e.g., COVID-19), which present with similar symptoms, are circulating concurrently. Growing evidence for substantial infection prevalence of dengue in mosquitoes in the absence of local index cases suggests a higher level of dengue endemicity in Florida than previously thought. Funding: This research was supported in part by U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) grant 1U01CK000510-03, Southeastern Regional Center of Excellence in Vector Borne Diseases Gateway Program.

12.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 15(11): e0009931, 2021 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34784348

RESUMEN

Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti (e.g., dengue, chikungunya, Zika) are of major public health concern on the arid coastal border of Ecuador and Peru. This high transit border is a critical disease surveillance site due to human movement-associated risk of transmission. Local level studies are thus integral to capturing the dynamics and distribution of vector populations and social-ecological drivers of risk, to inform targeted public health interventions. Our study examines factors associated with household-level Ae. aegypti presence in Huaquillas, Ecuador, while accounting for spatial and temporal effects. From January to May of 2017, adult mosquitoes were collected from a cohort of households (n = 63) in clusters (n = 10), across the city of Huaquillas, using aspirator backpacks. Household surveys describing housing conditions, demographics, economics, travel, disease prevention, and city services were conducted by local enumerators. This study was conducted during the normal arbovirus transmission season (January-May), but during an exceptionally dry year. Household level Ae. aegypti presence peaked in February, and counts were highest in weeks with high temperatures and a week after increased rainfall. Univariate analyses with proportional odds logistic regression were used to explore household social-ecological variables and female Ae. aegypti presence. We found that homes were more likely to have Ae. aegypti when households had interruptions in piped water service. Ae. aegypti presence was less likely in households with septic systems. Based on our findings, infrastructure access and seasonal climate are important considerations for vector control in this city, and even in dry years, the arid environment of Huaquillas supports Ae. aegypti breeding habitat.


Asunto(s)
Aedes/fisiología , Mosquitos Vectores/fisiología , Distribución Animal , Animales , Ciudades , Clima , Ecosistema , Ecuador , Composición Familiar , Femenino , Humanos , Control de Mosquitos , Estaciones del Año , Temperatura
13.
J Med Entomol ; 58(6): 2021-2029, 2021 11 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34027972

RESUMEN

Tick-borne diseases are a growing problem in many parts of the world, and their surveillance and control touch on challenging issues in medical entomology, agricultural health, veterinary medicine, and biosecurity. Spatial approaches can be used to synthesize the data generated by integrative One Health surveillance systems, and help stakeholders, managers, and medical geographers understand the current and future distribution of risk. Here, we performed a systematic review of over 8,000 studies and identified a total of 303 scientific publications that map tick-borne diseases using data on vectors, pathogens, and hosts (including wildlife, livestock, and human cases). We find that the field is growing rapidly, with the major Ixodes-borne diseases (Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis in particular) giving way to monitoring efforts that encompass a broader range of threats. We find a tremendous diversity of methods used to map tick-borne disease, but also find major gaps: data on the enzootic cycle of tick-borne pathogens is severely underutilized, and mapping efforts are mostly limited to Europe and North America. We suggest that future work can readily apply available methods to track the distributions of tick-borne diseases in Africa and Asia, following a One Health approach that combines medical and veterinary surveillance for maximum impact.


Asunto(s)
Vectores Arácnidos , Geografía , Enfermedades por Picaduras de Garrapatas , Animales , Vectores Arácnidos/microbiología , Vectores Arácnidos/parasitología , Vectores Arácnidos/virología , Geografía/métodos , Geografía/normas , Geografía/estadística & datos numéricos , Prevalencia , Enfermedades por Picaduras de Garrapatas/epidemiología , Enfermedades por Picaduras de Garrapatas/microbiología , Enfermedades por Picaduras de Garrapatas/parasitología , Enfermedades por Picaduras de Garrapatas/transmisión
14.
PeerJ ; 9: e10596, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33643699

RESUMEN

The rising prevalence of tick-borne diseases in humans in recent decades has called attention to the need for more information on geographic risk for public health planning. Species distribution models (SDMs) are an increasingly utilized method of constructing potential geographic ranges. There are many knowledge gaps in our understanding of risk of exposure to tick-borne pathogens, particularly for those in the rickettsial group. Here, we conducted a systematic scoping review of the SDM literature for rickettsial pathogens and tick vectors in the genus Amblyomma. Of the 174 reviewed articles, only 24 studies used SDMs to estimate the potential extent of vector and/or pathogen ranges. The majority of studies (79%) estimated only tick distributions using vector presence as a proxy for pathogen exposure. Studies were conducted at different scales and across multiple continents. Few studies undertook original data collection, and SDMs were mostly built with presence-only datasets from public database or surveillance sources. The reliance on existing data sources, using ticks as a proxy for disease risk, may simply reflect a lag in new data acquisition and a thorough understanding of the tick-pathogen ecology involved.

15.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 15(3): e0009257, 2021 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33740003

RESUMEN

The management of mosquito-borne diseases is a challenge in southern coastal Ecuador, where dengue is hyper-endemic and co-circulates with other arboviral diseases. Prior work in the region has explored social-ecological factors, dengue case data, and entomological indices. In this study, we bring together entomological and epidemiological data to describe links between social-ecological factors associated with risk of dengue transmission at the household level in Machala, Ecuador. Households surveys were conducted from 2014-2017 to assess the presence of adult Aedes aegypti (collected via aspiration) and to enumerate housing conditions, demographics, and mosquito prevention behaviors. Household-level dengue infection status was determined by laboratory diagnostics in 2014-2015. Bivariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify social-ecological variables associated with household presence of female Ae. aegypti and household dengue infection status, respectively. Aedes aegypti presence was associated with interruptions in water service and weekly trash collection, and household air conditioning was protective against mosquito presence. Presence of female Ae. aegypti was not associated with household dengue infections. We identified shaded patios and head of household employment status as risk factors for household-level dengue infection, while window screening in good condition was identified as protective against dengue infection. These findings add to our understanding of the systems of mosquito-borne disease transmission in Machala, and in the larger region of southern Ecuador, aiding in the development of improved vector surveillance efforts, and targeted interventions.


Asunto(s)
Dengue/etiología , Aedes , Animales , Dengue/epidemiología , Dengue/transmisión , Ecología , Ecuador/epidemiología , Composición Familiar , Femenino , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Mosquitos Vectores , Factores de Riesgo
16.
J Med Entomol ; 58(3): 1083-1092, 2021 05 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33274379

RESUMEN

The American dog tick, Dermacentor variabilis (Say) (Acari: Ixodidae), is a vector for several human disease-causing pathogens such as tularemia, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, and the understudied spotted fever group rickettsiae (SFGR) infection caused by Rickettsia montanensis. It is important for public health planning and intervention to understand the distribution of this tick and pathogen encounter risk. Risk is often described in terms of vector distribution, but greatest risk may be concentrated where more vectors are positive for a given pathogen. When assessing species distributions, the choice of modeling framework and spatial layers used to make predictions are important. We first updated the modeled distribution of D. variabilis and R. montanensis using maximum entropy (MaxEnt), refining bioclimatic data inputs, and including soil variables. We then compared geospatial predictions from five species distribution modeling frameworks. In contrast to previous work, we additionally assessed whether the R. montanensis positive D. variabilis distribution is nested within a larger overall D. variabilis distribution, representing a fitness cost hypothesis. We found that 1) adding soil layers improved the accuracy of the MaxEnt model; 2) the predicted 'infected niche' was smaller than the overall predicted niche across all models; and 3) each model predicted different sizes of suitable niche, at different levels of probability. Importantly, the models were not directly comparable in output style, which could create confusion in interpretation when developing planning tools. The random forest (RF) model had the best measured validity and fit, suggesting it may be most appropriate to these data.


Asunto(s)
Vectores Arácnidos/microbiología , Dermacentor/microbiología , Infecciones por Rickettsia/transmisión , Rickettsia/fisiología , Animales , Modelos Biológicos
17.
Ecol Evol ; 11(24): 18719-18732, 2021 Dec.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35003704

RESUMEN

Hemidactylus mabouia is one of the most successful, widespread invasive reptile species and has become ubiquitous across tropical urban settings in the Western Hemisphere. Its ability to thrive in close proximity to humans has been linked to the rapid disappearance of native geckos. However, aspects of Hemidactylus mabouia natural history and ecomorphology, often assumed to be linked with this effect on native populations, remain understudied or untested. Here, we combine data from ∂15N and ∂13C stable isotopes, stomach contents, and morphometric analyses of traits associated with feeding and locomotion to test alternate hypotheses of displacement between H. mabouia and a native gecko, Phyllodactylus martini, on the island of Curaçao. We demonstrate substantial overlap of invertebrate prey resources between the species, with H. mabouia stomachs containing larger arthropod prey as well as vertebrate prey. We additionally show that H. mabouia possesses several morphological advantages, including larger sizes in feeding-associated traits and limb proportions that could offer a propulsive locomotor advantage on vertical surfaces. Together, these findings provide the first support for the hypotheses that invasive H. mabouia and native P. martini overlap in prey resources and that H. mabouia possess ecomorphological advantages over P. martini. This work provides critical context for follow-up studies of H. mabouia and P. martini natural history and direct behavioral experiments that may ultimately illuminate the mechanisms underlying displacement on this island and act as a potential model for other systems with Hemidactylus mabouia invasions.

18.
Malar J ; 19(1): 170, 2020 May 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32357890

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to be a disease of massive burden in Africa, and the public health resources targeted at surveillance, prevention, control, and intervention comprise large outlays of expense. Malaria transmission is largely constrained by the suitability of the climate for Anopheles mosquitoes and Plasmodium parasite development. Thus, as climate changes, shifts in geographic locations suitable for transmission, and differing lengths of seasons of suitability will occur, which will require changes in the types and amounts of resources. METHODS: The shifting geographic risk of malaria transmission was mapped, in context of changing seasonality (i.e. endemic to epidemic, and vice versa), and the number of people affected. A published temperature-dependent model of malaria transmission suitability was applied to continental gridded climate data for multiple future AR5 climate model projections. The resulting outcomes were aligned with programmatic needs to provide summaries at national and regional scales for the African continent. Model outcomes were combined with population projections to estimate the population at risk at three points in the future, 2030, 2050, and 2080, under two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). RESULTS: Estimated geographic shifts in endemic and seasonal suitability for malaria transmission were observed across all future scenarios of climate change. The worst-case regional scenario (RCP8.5) of climate change predicted an additional 75.9 million people at risk from endemic (10-12 months) exposure to malaria transmission in Eastern and Southern Africa by the year 2080, with the greatest population at risk in Eastern Africa. Despite a predominance of reduction in season length, a net gain of 51.3 million additional people is predicted be put at some level of risk in Western Africa by midcentury. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides an updated view of potential malaria geographic shifts in Africa under climate change for the more recent climate model projections (AR5), and a tool for aligning findings with programmatic needs at key scales for decision-makers. In describing shifting seasonality, it was possible to capture transitions between endemic and epidemic risk areas, to facilitate the planning for interventions aimed at year-round risk versus anticipatory surveillance and rapid response to potential outbreak locations.


Asunto(s)
Anopheles/fisiología , Cambio Climático , Malaria Falciparum/transmisión , Mosquitos Vectores/fisiología , Plasmodium falciparum/fisiología , África Central , África Oriental , África Austral , África Occidental , Animales , Predicción , Modelos Teóricos , Riesgo
19.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 103(1): 149-156, 2020 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32342853

RESUMEN

Dengue fever and other febrile mosquito-borne diseases place considerable health and economic burdens on small island nations in the Caribbean. Here, we used two methods of cluster detection to find potential hotspots of transmission of dengue and chikungunya in Barbados, and to assess the impact of input surveillance data and methodology on observed patterns of risk. Using Moran's I and spatial scan statistics, we analyzed the geospatial and temporal distribution of disease cases and rates across Barbados for dengue fever in 2013-2016, and a chikungunya outbreak in 2014. During years with high numbers of dengue cases, hotspots for cases were found with Moran's I in the south and central regions in 2013 and 2016, respectively. Using smoothed disease rates, clustering was detected in all years for dengue. Hotspots suggesting higher rates were not detected via spatial scan statistics, but coldspots suggesting lower than expected rates of disease activity were found in southwestern Barbados during high case years of dengue. No significant spatiotemporal structure was found in cases during the chikungunya outbreak. Spatial analysis of surveillance data is useful in identifying outbreak hotspots, potentially complementing existing early warning systems. We caution that these methods should be used in a manner appropriate to available data and reflecting explicit public health goals-managing for overall case numbers or targeting anomalous rates for further investigation.


Asunto(s)
Fiebre Chikungunya/epidemiología , Virus Chikungunya/patogenicidad , Virus del Dengue/patogenicidad , Dengue/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Aedes/virología , Animales , Barbados/epidemiología , Fiebre Chikungunya/transmisión , Fiebre Chikungunya/virología , Virus Chikungunya/fisiología , Análisis por Conglomerados , Dengue/transmisión , Dengue/virología , Virus del Dengue/fisiología , Enfermedades Endémicas/estadística & datos numéricos , Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Humanos , Incidencia , Mosquitos Vectores/virología , Salud Pública , Riesgo
20.
Int J Health Geogr ; 19(1): 3, 2020 02 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32046732

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Vector-borne disease places a high health and economic burden in the American tropics. Comprehensive vector control programs remain the primary method of containing local outbreaks. With limited resources, many vector control operations struggle to serve all affected communities within their districts. In the coastal city of Machala, Ecuador, vector control services, such as application of larvicides and truck-mounted fogging, are delivered through two deployment facilities managed by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health. Public health professionals in Machala face several logistical issues when delivering mosquito abatement services, namely applying limited resources in ways that will most effectively suppress vectors of malaria, dengue, and encephalitis viruses. METHODS: Using a transportation network analysis framework, we built models of service areas and optimized delivery routes based on distance costs associated with accessing neighborhoods throughout the city. Optimized routes were used to estimate the relative cost of accessing neighborhoods for mosquito control services in Machala, creating a visual tool to guide decision makers and maximize mosquito control program efficiency. Location-allocation analyses were performed to evaluate efficiency gains of moving service deployment to other available locations with respect to distance to service hub, neighborhood population, dengue incidence, and housing condition. RESULTS: Using this framework, we identified different locations for targeting mosquito control efforts, dependent upon management goals and specified risk factors of interest, including human population, housing condition, and reported dengue incidence. Our models indicate that neighborhoods on the periphery of Machala with the poorest housing conditions are the most costly to access. Optimal locations of facilities for deployment of control services change depending on pre-determined management priorities, increasing the population served via inexpensive routes up to 34.9%, and reducing overall cost of accessing neighborhoods up to 12.7%. CONCLUSIONS: Our transportation network models indicate that current locations of mosquito control facilities in Machala are not ideal for minimizing driving distances or maximizing populations served. Services may be optimized by moving vector control operations to other existing public health facilities in Machala. This work represents a first step in creating a spatial tool for planning and critically evaluating the systematic delivery of mosquito control services in Machala and elsewhere.


Asunto(s)
Modelos Teóricos , Control de Mosquitos , Mosquitos Vectores , Transportes , Animales , Brotes de Enfermedades , Ecuador/epidemiología , Vivienda , Humanos , Malaria/epidemiología , Control de Mosquitos/economía , Control de Mosquitos/métodos , Salud Pública , Factores de Riesgo
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