RESUMEN
Dengue virus (DENV) transmission from humans to mosquitoes is a poorly documented, but critical component of DENV epidemiology. Magnitude of viremia is the primary determinant of successful human-to-mosquito DENV transmission. People with the same level of viremia, however, can vary in their infectiousness to mosquitoes as a function of other factors that remain to be elucidated. Here, we report on a field-based study in the city of Iquitos, Peru, where we conducted direct mosquito feedings on people naturally infected with DENV and that experienced mild illness. We also enrolled people naturally infected with Zika virus (ZIKV) after the introduction of ZIKV in Iquitos during the study period. Of the 54 study participants involved in direct mosquito feedings, 43 were infected with DENV-2, two with DENV-3, and nine with ZIKV. Our analysis excluded participants whose viremia was detectable at enrollment but undetectable at the time of mosquito feeding, which was the case for all participants with DENV-3 and ZIKV infections. We analyzed the probability of onward transmission during 50 feeding events involving 27 participants infected with DENV-2 based on the presence of infectious virus in mosquito saliva 7-16 days post blood meal. Transmission probability was positively associated with the level of viremia and duration of extrinsic incubation in the mosquito. In addition, transmission probability was influenced by the day of illness in a non-monotonic fashion; i.e., transmission probability increased until 2 days after symptom onset and decreased thereafter. We conclude that mildly ill DENV-infected humans with similar levels of viremia during the first two days after symptom onset will be most infectious to mosquitoes on the second day of their illness. Quantifying variation within and between people in their contribution to DENV transmission is essential to better understand the biological determinants of human infectiousness, parametrize epidemiological models, and improve disease surveillance and prevention strategies.
Asunto(s)
Culicidae , Dengue , Infección por el Virus Zika , Virus Zika , Animales , Humanos , Viremia , Infección por el Virus Zika/epidemiología , Dengue/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Current knowledge of dengue virus (DENV) transmission provides only a partial understanding of a complex and dynamic system yielding a public health track record that has more failures than successes. An important part of the problem is that the foundation for contemporary interventions includes a series of longstanding, but untested, assumptions based on a relatively small portion of the human population; i.e., people who are convenient to study because they manifest clinically apparent disease. Approaching dengue from the perspective of people with overt illness has produced an extensive body of useful literature. It has not, however, fully embraced heterogeneities in virus transmission dynamics that are increasingly recognized as key information still missing in the struggle to control the most important insect-transmitted viral infection of humans. Only in the last 20 years have there been significant efforts to carry out comprehensive longitudinal dengue studies. This manuscript provides the rationale and comprehensive, integrated description of the methodology for a five-year longitudinal cohort study based in the tropical city of Iquitos, in the heart of the Peruvian Amazon. Primary data collection for this study was completed in 2019. Although some manuscripts have been published to date, our principal objective here is to support subsequent publications by describing in detail the structure, methodology, and significance of a specific research program. Our project was designed to study people across the entire continuum of disease, with the ultimate goal of quantifying heterogeneities in human variables that affect DENV transmission dynamics and prevention. Because our study design is applicable to other Aedes transmitted viruses, we used it to gain insights into Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission when during the project period ZIKV was introduced and circulated in Iquitos. Our prospective contact cluster investigation design was initiated by detecttion of a person with a symptomatic DENV infection and then followed that person's immediate contacts. This allowed us to monitor individuals at high risk of DENV infection, including people with clinically inapparent and mild infections that are otherwise difficult to detect. We aimed to fill knowledge gaps by defining the contribution to DENV transmission dynamics of (1) the understudied majority of DENV-infected people with inapparent and mild infections and (2) epidemiological, entomological, and socio-behavioral sources of heterogeneity. By accounting for factors underlying variation in each person's contribution to transmission we sought to better determine the type and extent of effort needed to better prevent virus transmission and disease.
Asunto(s)
Arbovirus , Virus del Dengue , Dengue , Infección por el Virus Zika , Virus Zika , Humanos , Estudios Longitudinales , Estudios Prospectivos , Perú/epidemiología , Infección por el Virus Zika/epidemiologíaAsunto(s)
COVID-19/prevención & control , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/organización & administración , Trazado de Contacto/métodos , Aglomeración , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Interacción Social , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
As part of a study to investigate drivers of dengue virus (DENV) transmission dynamics, this qualitative study explored whether DENV-infected residents of Iquitos, Peru, considered it acceptable (1) to participate in direct mosquito feeding experiments (lab-reared Aedes aegypti mosquitoes fed directly on human volunteers) and (2) to provide blood meals indirectly (Ae. aegypti fed on blood drawn from participants by venipuncture). Twelve focus group discussions (FGDs; 94 participants: 82 females and 12 males) were conducted in January 2014 to explore six themes: (1) concerns and preferences regarding direct mosquito feeds and blood draws, (2) comprehension of and misconceptions about study procedures, (3) motivating factors for participation, (4) acceptability of children's participation, (5) willingness to provide multiple samples over several days, and (6) preference for direct feedings in homes versus the study laboratory. Results of FGDs, including one with 5 of 53 past direct mosquito feed participants, indicated that mosquito feeding procedures are acceptable to Iquitos residents when they are provided with information and a few key messages are properly reinforced. FGD participants' concerns focused primarily on safety issues rather than discomfort associated with mosquito bites. A video explaining the study dramatically increased comprehension of the study procedures. The majority of participants expressed a preference for mosquito feeding over venipuncture. Adults supported child participation if the children themselves assented. For most participants, home feedings were preferred over those in a laboratory. A major impetus for participation was the idea that results would contribute to an improved understanding of DENV transmission in Iquitos. Findings from our study will support future large-scale studies that employ direct mosquito feeding, a low-risk, non-invasive procedure that is experimentally superior to artificial mosquito feeding methods.
Asunto(s)
Aedes/fisiología , Virus del Dengue/fisiología , Dengue/virología , Mosquitos Vectores/fisiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Aedes/virología , Anciano , Animales , Dengue/transmisión , Conducta Alimentaria , Femenino , Grupos Focales , Humanos , Consentimiento Informado , Mordeduras y Picaduras de Insectos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mosquitos Vectores/virología , Perú , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Transmission of dengue virus (DENV) from humans to mosquitoes represents a critical component of dengue epidemiology. Examinations of this process have generally been hampered by a lack of methods that adequately represent natural acquisition of DENV by mosquitoes from humans. In this study, we assessed artificial and natural blood feeding methods based on rates of DENV infection and dissemination within mosquitoes for use in a field-based epidemiological cohort study in Iquitos, Peru. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Our study was implemented, stepwise, between 2011 and 2015. Participants who were 5 years and older with 5 or fewer days of fever were enrolled from ongoing clinic- and neighborhood-based studies on dengue in Iquitos. Wild type, laboratory-reared Aedes aegypti were fed directly on febrile individuals or on blood collected from participants that was either untreated or treated with EDTA. Mosquitoes were tested after approximately 14 days of extrinsic incubation for DENV infection and dissemination. A total of 58 participants, with viremias ranging from 1.3 × 10(2) to 2.9 × 10(6) focus-forming units per mL of serum, participated in one or more feeding methods. DENV infection and dissemination rates were not significantly different following direct and indirect-EDTA feeding; however, they were significantly lower for mosquitoes that fed indirectly on blood with no additive. Relative to direct feeding, infection rates showed greater variation following indirect-EDTA than indirect-no additive feeding. Dissemination rates were similar across all feeding methods. No differences were detected in DENV infection or dissemination rates in mosquitoes fed directly on participants with different dengue illness severity. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study demonstrates the feasibility of using direct and indirect feeding methods for field-based studies on vector competence. Direct mosquito feeding is preferable in terms of logistical ease, biosecurity, and reliability.
Asunto(s)
Aedes/virología , Virus del Dengue/fisiología , Dengue/virología , Mosquitos Vectores/virología , Adolescente , Adulto , Aedes/fisiología , Anciano , Animales , Dengue/transmisión , Conducta Alimentaria , Femenino , Humanos , Consentimiento Informado , Mordeduras y Picaduras de Insectos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mosquitos Vectores/fisiología , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Pathogens inflict a wide variety of disease manifestations on their hosts, yet the impacts of disease on the behaviour of infected hosts are rarely studied empirically and are seldom accounted for in mathematical models of transmission dynamics. We explored the potential impacts of one of the most common disease manifestations, fever, on a key determinant of pathogen transmission, host mobility, in residents of the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. We did so by comparing two groups of febrile individuals (dengue-positive and dengue-negative) with an afebrile control group. A retrospective, semi-structured interview allowed us to quantify multiple aspects of mobility during the two-week period preceding each interview. We fitted nested models of each aspect of mobility to data from interviews and compared models using likelihood ratio tests to determine whether there were statistically distinguishable differences in mobility attributable to fever or its aetiology. Compared with afebrile individuals, febrile study participants spent more time at home, visited fewer locations, and, in some cases, visited locations closer to home and spent less time at certain types of locations. These multifaceted impacts are consistent with the possibility that disease-mediated changes in host mobility generate dynamic and complex changes in host contact network structure.
Asunto(s)
Fiebre/epidemiología , Viaje , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Ciudades , Dengue/epidemiología , Humanos , Funciones de Verosimilitud , Modelos Teóricos , Perú/epidemiología , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Nearly half of the world's population is at risk for dengue, yet no licensed vaccine or anti-viral drug is currently available. Dengue is caused by any of four dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1 through DENV-4), and infection by a DENV serotype is assumed to provide life-long protection against re-infection by that serotype. We investigated the validity of this fundamental assumption during a large dengue epidemic caused by DENV-2 in Iquitos, Peru, in 2010-2011, 15 years after the first outbreak of DENV-2 in the region. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We estimated the age-dependent prevalence of serotype-specific DENV antibodies from longitudinal cohort studies conducted between 1993 and 2010. During the 2010-2011 epidemic, active dengue cases were identified through active community- and clinic-based febrile surveillance studies, and acute inapparent DENV infections were identified through contact tracing studies. Based on the age-specific prevalence of DENV-2 neutralizing antibodies, the age distribution of DENV-2 cases was markedly older than expected. Homologous protection was estimated at 35.1% (95% confidence interval: 0%-65.2%). At the individual level, pre-existing DENV-2 antibodies were associated with an incomplete reduction in the frequency of symptoms. Among dengue cases, 43% (26/66) exhibited elevated DENV-2 neutralizing antibody titers for years prior to infection, compared with 76% (13/17) of inapparent infections (age-adjusted odds ratio: 4.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-17.7). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our data indicate that protection from homologous DENV re-infection may be incomplete in some circumstances, which provides context for the limited vaccine efficacy against DENV-2 in recent trials. Further studies are warranted to confirm this phenomenon and to evaluate the potential role of incomplete homologous protection in DENV transmission dynamics.
Asunto(s)
Virus del Dengue/inmunología , Dengue/epidemiología , Dengue/prevención & control , Brotes de Enfermedades , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribución por Edad , Anciano , Anticuerpos Neutralizantes/sangre , Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Humanos , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Perú/epidemiología , Prevalencia , Estudios Prospectivos , Recurrencia , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Three-quarters of the estimated 390 million dengue virus (DENV) infections each year are clinically inapparent. People with inapparent dengue virus infections are generally considered dead-end hosts for transmission because they do not reach sufficiently high viremia levels to infect mosquitoes. Here, we show that, despite their lower average level of viremia, asymptomatic people can be infectious to mosquitoes. Moreover, at a given level of viremia, DENV-infected people with no detectable symptoms or before the onset of symptoms are significantly more infectious to mosquitoes than people with symptomatic infections. Because DENV viremic people without clinical symptoms may be exposed to more mosquitoes through their undisrupted daily routines than sick people and represent the bulk of DENV infections, our data indicate that they have the potential to contribute significantly more to virus transmission to mosquitoes than previously recognized.
Asunto(s)
Virus del Dengue/fisiología , Dengue/transmisión , Dengue/virología , Adolescente , Aedes/virología , Animales , Niño , Dengue/sangre , Relación Dosis-Respuesta Inmunológica , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Análisis Multivariante , Análisis de Regresión , Viremia/sangre , Viremia/virologíaRESUMEN
In 2010, an outbreak of febrile illness with arthralgic manifestations was detected at La Estación village, Portuguesa State, Venezuela. The etiologic agent was determined to be Mayaro virus (MAYV), a reemerging South American alphavirus. A total of 77 cases was reported and 19 were confirmed as seropositive. MAYV was isolated from acute-phase serum samples from 6 symptomatic patients. We sequenced 27 complete genomes representing the full spectrum of MAYV genetic diversity, which facilitated detection of a new genotype, designated N. Phylogenetic analysis of genomic sequences indicated that etiologic strains from Venezuela belong to genotype D. Results indicate that MAYV is highly conserved genetically, showing ≈17% nucleotide divergence across all 3 genotypes and 4% among genotype D strains in the most variable genes. Coalescent analyses suggested genotypes D and L diverged ≈150 years ago and genotype diverged N ≈250 years ago. This virus commonly infects persons residing near enzootic transmission foci because of anthropogenic incursions.
Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Alphavirus/epidemiología , Alphavirus/genética , Evolución Biológica , Biota/inmunología , Brotes de Enfermedades , Alphavirus/crecimiento & desarrollo , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Filogenia , Venezuela/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
We evaluated four dengue diagnostic devices from Alere, including the SD Bioline Dengue Duo (nonstructural [NS] 1 Ag and IgG/IgM), the Panbio Dengue Duo Cassette (IgM/IgG) rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), and the Panbio dengue IgM and IgG capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) in a prospective, controlled, multicenter study in Peru, Venezuela, Cambodia, and the United States, using samples from 1,021 febrile individuals. Archived, well-characterized samples from an additional 135 febrile individuals from Thailand were also used. Reference testing was performed on all samples using an algorithm involving virus isolation, in-house IgM and IgG capture ELISAs, and plaque reduction neutralization tests (PRNT) to determine the infection status of the individual. The primary endpoints were the clinical sensitivities and specificities of these devices. The SD Bioline Dengue Duo had an overall sensitivity of 87.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 84.1 to 90.2%) and specificity of 86.8% (95% CI, 83.9 to 89.3%) during the first 14 days post-symptom onset (p.s.o.). The Panbio Dengue Duo Cassette demonstrated a sensitivity of 92.1% (87.8 to 95.2%) and specificity of 62.2% (54.5 to 69.5%) during days 4 to 14 p.s.o. The Panbio IgM capture ELISA had a sensitivity of 87.6% (82.7 to 91.4%) and specificity of 88.1% (82.2 to 92.6%) during days 4 to 14 p.s.o. Finally, the Panbio IgG capture ELISA had a sensitivity of 69.6% (62.1 to 76.4%) and a specificity of 88.4% (82.6 to 92.8%) during days 4 to 14 p.s.o. for identification of secondary dengue infections. This multicountry prospective study resulted in reliable real-world performance data that will facilitate data-driven laboratory test choices for managing patient care during dengue outbreaks.
Asunto(s)
Dengue/diagnóstico , Ensayo de Inmunoadsorción Enzimática/métodos , Juego de Reactivos para Diagnóstico/virología , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , Niño , Preescolar , Dengue/epidemiología , Dengue/inmunología , Virus del Dengue/inmunología , Femenino , Humanos , Inmunoglobulina G/sangre , Inmunoglobulina M/sangre , Lactante , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Prospectivos , Sensibilidad y Especificidad , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
During 2010 and 2011, the Loreto region of Peru experienced a dengue outbreak of unprecedented magnitude and severity for the region. This outbreak coincided with the reappearance of dengue virus-2 (DENV-2) in Loreto after almost 8 years. Whole-genome sequence indicated that DENV-2 from the outbreak belonged to lineage II of the southeast Asian/American genotype and was most closely related to viruses circulating in Brazil during 2007 and 2008, whereas DENV-2 previously circulating in Loreto grouped with lineage I (DENV-2 strains circulating in South America since 1990). One amino acid substitution (NS5 A811V) in the 2010 and 2011 isolates resulted from positive selection. However, the 2010 and 2011 DENV-2 did not replicate to higher titers in monocyte-derived dendritic cells and did not infect or disseminate in a higher proportion of Aedes aegypti than DENV-2 isolates previously circulating in Loreto. These results suggest that factors other than enhanced viral replication played a role in the severity of this outbreak.
Asunto(s)
Aedes/virología , Virus del Dengue/clasificación , Brotes de Enfermedades , Genoma Viral/genética , Insectos Vectores/virología , Dengue Grave/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Sustitución de Aminoácidos , Animales , Asia Sudoriental , Secuencia de Bases , Niño , Virus del Dengue/genética , Virus del Dengue/aislamiento & purificación , Femenino , Genotipo , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Datos de Secuencia Molecular , Perú/epidemiología , Filogenia , ARN Viral/genética , Análisis de Secuencia de ARN , Dengue Grave/transmisión , Dengue Grave/virología , Especificidad de la Especie , Estados Unidos , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Infectious disease models play a key role in public health planning. These models rely on accurate estimates of key transmission parameters such as the force of infection (FoI), which is the per-capita risk of a susceptible person being infected. The FoI captures the fundamental dynamics of transmission and is crucial for gauging control efforts, such as identifying vaccination targets. Dengue virus (DENV) is a mosquito-borne, multiserotype pathogen that currently infects â¼390 million people a year. Existing estimates of the DENV FoI are inaccurate because they rely on the unrealistic assumption that risk is constant over time. Dengue models are thus unreliable for designing vaccine deployment strategies. Here, we present to our knowledge the first time-varying (daily), serotype-specific estimates of DENV FoIs using a spline-based fitting procedure designed to examine a 12-y, longitudinal DENV serological dataset from Iquitos, Peru (11,703 individuals, 38,416 samples, and 22,301 serotype-specific DENV infections from 1999 to 2010). The yearly DENV FoI varied markedly across time and serotypes (0-0.33), as did daily basic reproductive numbers (0.49-4.72). During specific time periods, the FoI fluctuations correlated across serotypes, indicating that different DENV serotypes shared common transmission drivers. The marked variation in transmission intensity that we detected indicates that intervention targets based on one-time estimates of the FoI could underestimate the level of effort needed to prevent disease. Our description of dengue virus transmission dynamics is unprecedented in detail, providing a basis for understanding the persistence of this rapidly emerging pathogen and improving disease prevention programs.
Asunto(s)
Virus del Dengue/genética , Dengue/epidemiología , Dengue/transmisión , Modelos Biológicos , Vigilancia en Salud Pública/métodos , Humanos , Estudios Longitudinales , Perú/epidemiología , Factores de TiempoRESUMEN
Viruses from the Alphavirus genus are responsible for numerous arboviral diseases impacting human health throughout the world. Confirmation of acute alphavirus infection is based on viral isolation, identification of viral RNA, or a fourfold or greater increase in antibody titers between acute and convalescent samples. In convalescence, the specificity of antibodies to an alphavirus may be confirmed by plaque reduction neutralization test. To identify the best method for alphavirus and neutralizing antibody recognition, the standard solid method using a cell monolayer overlay with 0.4% agarose and the semisolid method using a cell suspension overlay with 0.6% carboxymethyl cellulose (CMC) overlay were evaluated. Mayaro virus, Una virus, Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV), and Western equine encephalitis virus (WEEV) were selected to be tested by both methods. The results indicate that the solid method showed consistently greater sensitivity than the semisolid method. Also, a "semisolid-variant method" using a 0.6% CMC overlay on a cell monolayer was assayed for virus titration. This method provided the same sensitivity as the solid method for VEEV and also had greater sensitivity for WEEV titration. Modifications in plaque assay conditions affect significantly results and therefore evaluation of the performance of each new assay is needed.
Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Alphavirus/diagnóstico , Alphavirus/inmunología , Anticuerpos Neutralizantes/sangre , Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , Ensayo de Placa Viral/métodos , Infecciones por Alphavirus/virología , Animales , Chlorocebus aethiops , Cricetinae , Virus de la Encefalitis Equina Venezolana/inmunología , Virus de la Encefalitis Equina del Oeste/inmunología , Humanos , Ratones , Pruebas de Neutralización , Células VeroRESUMEN
While human illness associated with hantavirus infection has been documented in many countries of South America, evidence for hantavirus transmission in Peru has been limited to the isolation of Rio Mamore virus from a pigmy mouse rat (Oligoryzomys microtis) in the Amazon city of Iquitos. To address the possibility of human hantavirus exposure in the region, we screened febrile patients reporting to health clinics in Iquitos from 2007 to 2010 for serological evidence of recent hantavirus infection. In addition, we conducted a serological survey for hantavirus-reactive IgG among healthy participants residing in Iquitos and rural areas surrounding the city. Through the febrile surveillance study, we identified 15 participants (0.3%; 15/5174) with IgM reactive to hantavirus (Andes virus) antigen, all with relatively mild, self-limited illness. From the cross-sectional serosurvey we found that 1.7% (36/2063) of residents of the Iquitos area had serum IgG reactive to one or more hantaviruses, with a higher prevalence in the urban population (2.2%, compared to 1.1% in rural areas). These results suggest that human infection with hantavirus has occurred in Peru.
Asunto(s)
Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , Antígenos Virales/inmunología , Infecciones por Hantavirus/epidemiología , Orthohantavirus/inmunología , Adolescente , Adulto , Animales , Niño , Preescolar , Estudios Transversales , Ensayo de Inmunoadsorción Enzimática , Femenino , Orthohantavirus/aislamiento & purificación , Infecciones por Hantavirus/transmisión , Infecciones por Hantavirus/virología , Humanos , Inmunoglobulina G/sangre , Inmunoglobulina G/inmunología , Inmunoglobulina M/sangre , Inmunoglobulina M/inmunología , Lactante , Masculino , Ratones , Persona de Mediana Edad , Perú/epidemiología , Prevalencia , Estudios Retrospectivos , Población Rural , Estudios Seroepidemiológicos , Población Urbana , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Outbreaks of Mayaro fever have been associated with a sylvatic cycle of Mayaro virus (MAYV) transmission in South America. To evaluate the potential for a common urban mosquito to transmit MAYV, laboratory vector competence studies were performed with Aedes aegypti from Iquitos, Peru. Oral infection in Ae. aegypti ranged from 0% (0/31) to 84% (31/37), with blood meal virus titers between 3.4 log(10) and 7.3 log(10) plaque-forming units (PFU)/mL. Transmission of MAYV by 70% (21/30) of infected mosquitoes was shown by saliva collection and exposure to suckling mice. Amount of viral RNA in febrile humans, determined by real-time polymerase chain reaction, ranged from 2.7 to 5.3 log(10) PFU equivalents/mL. Oral susceptibility of Ae. aegypti to MAYV at titers encountered in viremic humans may limit opportunities to initiate an urban cycle; however, transmission of MAYV by Ae. aegypti shows the vector competence of this species and suggests potential for urban transmission.
Asunto(s)
Aedes/virología , Infecciones por Alphavirus/transmisión , Insectos Vectores , Alphavirus/genética , Alphavirus/patogenicidad , Infecciones por Alphavirus/epidemiología , Animales , Efecto Citopatogénico Viral , Brotes de Enfermedades , Reacción en Cadena de la Polimerasa , ARN Viral/análisis , Ensayo de Placa ViralRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To characterize the province-specific incidence patterns of measles in Cameroon and determine if an increase in measles incidence during the period January 2000-June 2001 is consistent with coincident epidemics in several regions with different inter-epidemic periods. METHOD: Periodic behavior of the monthly measles incidence time-series from each province of Cameroon was analyzed using time-series analysis and cluster techniques. Cumulative incidence in each province of Cameroon over a five-year period was associated with birth rates, and vaccination coverage. RESULTS: Distinct patterns of measles incidence were found in two different areas of Cameroon. The three northern-most provinces experience major epidemics every year. Seven southern provinces show evidence of experiencing major epidemics every third year. In January 2000, Cameroon experienced coincident peaks in these two cycles and thus an increase in measles incidence countrywide over the previous year. Higher cumulative province-specific incidence rates were associated with higher birth rates and lower routine vaccination coverage rates. CONCLUSION: Within one country, two dramatically different dynamic patterns of measles incidence were observed. Long-term surveillance data is crucial to the evaluation of measles immunization campaigns. The availability of a five-year record of measles incidence in Cameroon reveals an interesting dynamic pattern of measles incidence that accounts for the increase in countrywide incidence in 2000-2001.
Asunto(s)
Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Sarampión/epidemiología , Vigilancia de la Población , Camerún/epidemiología , Análisis por Conglomerados , Humanos , Incidencia , Modelos Lineales , Vacuna Antisarampión/administración & dosificación , Modelos Biológicos , Periodicidad , Dinámica Poblacional , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To quantify the association between household-level and provider-level determinants and childhood immunization rates in Cameroon while also calculating the cost of childhood immunizations. METHODS: This study uses multilevel regression analysis to calculate these relationships. The 1998 Cameroon Demographic and Health Survey and the 2000 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey are the main sources of household-level data. These surveys are supplemented by data from a 2002 survey of health facilities conducted in three provinces. At the national level, immunization financing data were collected from the Ministry of Health and donors that support the national Expanded Programme on Immunization. FINDINGS: The 1998 survey found that nationally 37% of children were fully immunized; the 2000 survey found that nationally 34% were fully immunized. These results are strongly correlated with both the mother's level of education and the household's economic status. Multilevel logistic regression shows that maternal education level is a stronger predictor of positive immunization status than is relative economic status. Children of mothers with secondary education or higher education were 3 times more likely to be fully vaccinated than children whose mothers had not completed primary education. At the health-facility level, both having art immunization plan and regular supervisory visits from someone at the health-district level are strongly positively associated with immunization rates. The cost of routine vaccinations for each fully immunized child is 12.73 U.S. dollars when donors' contributions are included but not the costs of immunization campaigns. CONCLUSION: Studies conducted in the 1980s and 1990s found that costs per fully immunized child varied from 2.19 U.S. dollars to 26.59 U.S. dollars (not adjusted for inflation) in a range of low-income and middle-income countries. The relatively low rates of immunization coverage in Cameroon, and the strong influence of the household's socioeconomic status--particularly the mother's level of education--on immunization rates suggest that the effectiveness of the Cameroon programme could be increased by promoting immunization and directing such programmes towards households with limited resources.