Development and validation of a nomogram to predict postoperative delirium in older patients after major abdominal surgery: a retrospective case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative delirium is a common complication in older patients, with poor long-term outcomes. This study aimed to investigate risk factors and develop a predictive model for postoperative delirium in older patients after major abdominal surgery. METHODS: This study retrospectively recruited 7577 patients aged ≥ 65 years who underwent major abdominal surgery between January 2014 and December 2018 in a single hospital in Beijing, China. Patients were divided into a training cohort (n = 5303) and a validation cohort (n = 2224) for univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses and to build a nomogram. Data were collected for 43 perioperative variables, including demographics, medical history, preoperative laboratory results, imaging, and anesthesia information. RESULTS: Age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, white blood cell count, glucose, total protein, creatinine, emergency surgery, and anesthesia time were associated with postoperative delirium in multivariate analysis. We developed a nomogram based on the above 8 variables. The nomogram achieved areas under the curve of 0.731 and 0.735 for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The discriminatory ability of the nomogram was further assessed by dividing the cases into three risk groups (low-risk, nomogram score < 175; medium-risk, nomogram score 175~199; high-risk, nomogram score > 199; P < 0.001). Decision curve analysis revealed that the nomogram provided a good net clinical benefit. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a nomogram that could predict postoperative delirium with high accuracy and stability in older patients after major abdominal surgery.

Association of sleep quality on the night of operative day with postoperative delirium in elderly patients: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Sleep disturbances in the peri-operative period have been associated with adverse outcomes, including postoperative delirium (POD). However, research on sleep quality during the immediate postoperative period is limited. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate the association between sleep quality on the night of the operative day assessed using the Sleep Quality Numeric Rating Scale (SQ-NRS), and the incidence of POD in a large cohort of surgical patients. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. SETTING: A tertiary hospital in China. PATIENTS: This study enrolled patients aged 65 years or older undergoing elective surgery under general anaesthesia. The participants were categorised into the sleep disturbance and no sleep disturbance groups according to their operative night SQ-NRS. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was delirium incidence, whereas the secondary outcomes included acute kidney injury, stroke, pulmonary infection, cardiovascular complications and all-cause mortality within 1 year postoperatively. RESULTS: In total, 3072 patients were included in the analysis of this study. Among them, 791 (25.72%) experienced sleep disturbances on the night of operative day. Patients in the sleep disturbance group had a significantly higher risk of developing POD (adjusted OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.82, P  = 0.005). Subgroup analysis revealed that age 65-75 years; male sex; ASA III and IV; haemoglobin more than 12 g l -1 ; intra-operative hypotension; surgical duration more than 120 min; and education 9 years or less were significantly associated with POD. No interaction was observed between the subgroups. No significant differences were observed in the secondary outcomes, such as acute kidney injury, stroke, pulmonary infection, cardiovascular complications and all-cause mortality within 1 year postoperatively. CONCLUSIONS: The poor subjective sleep quality on the night of operative day was independently associated with increased POD risk, especially in certain subpopulations. Optimising peri-operative sleep may reduce POD. Further research should investigate potential mechanisms and causal relationships. TRIAL REGISTRY: chictr.org.cn: ChiCTR1900028545.

Risk factors prediction of 6-month mortality after noncardiac surgery of older patients in China: a multicentre retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Identifying the risk factors associated with perioperative mortality is crucial, particularly in older patients. Predicting 6-month mortality risk in older patients based on large datasets can assist patients and surgeons in perioperative clinical decision-making. This study aimed to develop a risk prediction model of mortality within 6 months after noncardiac surgery using the clinical data from 11 894 older patients in China. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A multicentre, retrospective cohort study was conducted in 20 tertiary hospitals. The authors retrospectively included 11 894 patients (aged ≥65 years) who underwent noncardiac surgery between April 2020 and April 2022. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator model based on linear regression was used to analyse and select risk factors, and various machine learning methods were used to build predictive models of 6-month mortality. RESULTS: The authors predicted 12 preoperative risk factors associated with 6-month mortality in older patients after noncardiac surgery. Including laboratory-associated risk factors such as mononuclear cell ratio and total blood cholesterol level, etc. Also including medical history associated risk factors such as stroke, history of chronic diseases, etc. By using a random forest model, the authors constructed a predictive model with a satisfactory accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve=0.97). CONCLUSION: The authors identified 12 preoperative risk factors associated with 6-month mortality in noncardiac surgery older patients. These preoperative risk factors may provide evidence for a comprehensive preoperative anaesthesia assessment as well as necessary information for clinical decision-making by anaesthesiologists.

Preoperative prognostic nutritional index predicts postoperative delirium in aged patients after surgery: A matched cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Prognostic nutritional index (PNI) is an indicator to evaluate the nutritional immune status of patients. This study aimed to assess whether preoperative PNI could predict the occurrence of postoperative POD in aged patients undergoing non-neurosurgery and non-cardiac surgery. METHOD: The aged patients undergoing non-neurosurgery and non-cardiac surgery between January 2014 and August 2019 were included in the retrospective cohort study. The correlation between POD and PNI was investigated by univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis, propensity score matching (PSM), inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW), and subgroup analysis. RESULTS: In the cohort (n = 29,814), the cutoff value of PNI was 46.01 determined by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. In univariate and three multivariable regression analysis, the ORs of PNI ≤ 46.01 was 2.573(95% CI:2.261-2.929, P < 0.001),1.802 (95% CI:1.567-2.071, P < 0.001),1.463(95% CI:1.246-1.718, P < 0.001),1.370(95% CI:1.165-1.611, P < 0.001). In the PSM model and IPTW model, the ORs of PNI ≤ 46.01 were 1.424(95% CI:1.172-1.734, P < 0.001) and 1.356(95% CI:1.223-1.505, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The PNI was found to have a predictive value for POD in patients undergoing non-neurosurgery and non-cardiac surgery. Improving preoperative nutritional status may be beneficial in preventing POD for aged patients.

Mental health changes in elderly patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in China.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has a heavy impact on the mental health of elderly surgical patients worldwide. In particular, the elderly patients faced considerable psychological stress due to various environmental and medical factors during the outbreak. This study aims to examine changes in mental health trends among non-cardiac surgical patients aged 65 and above in China during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This multi-center, convenient sampling, longitudinal observational study was conducted from April 1, 2020 to April 30, 2022. Primary outcome was the prevalence of postoperative depression. Secondary outcome was the prevalence of postoperative anxiety. Follow-up was conducted separately at 7 days and 30 days after surgery. Depression symptoms were assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (PHQ-9) scale. Anxiety symptoms were assessed using Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7) scale, with scores of ≥5 defining positive depression or anxiety symptoms. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to investigate risk factors of mental health status in more elderly patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery. RESULTS: A total of 4639 patients were included, of whom 2279 (46.0 %) were male, 752 (15.2 %) were over the age of 75, and 4346 (93.7 %) were married. The monthly prevalence trends demonstrated that compared to the outbreak period, a significant reduction in the prevalence of depression and anxiety symptoms in elderly patients who underwent surgery during the post-pandemic period. In post-pandemic period, a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of all severity depression and anxiety patients was noted at the 7-day follow-up, but no significant decrease was observed for severe depression and anxiety in the 30-day follow-up. In COVID-19 low-risk area, a significant overall decrease in prevalence of mental health was observed during the post-pandemic period compared to the outbreak period, including 7-day depression, 7-day anxiety, 30-day depression, and 30-day anxiety (all with P < 0.001). Female and patients with ≥2 comorbidities appeared to be more susceptible to postoperative depression and anxiety during the pandemic. LIMITATION: The absence of data from the early days of the COVID-19 outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: This study analyzed the prevalence of depression and anxiety in elderly non-cardiac patients during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on dimensions such as severity, risk-areas, gender, and comorbidity. Our findings revealed a significant decrease in the prevalence of depression and anxiety in elderly surgery patients during the post-pandemic period.

Comparison of logistic regression and machine learning methods for predicting postoperative delirium in elderly patients: A retrospective study.

AIMS: To compare the performance of logistic regression and machine learning methods in predicting postoperative delirium (POD) in elderly patients. METHOD: This was a retrospective study of perioperative medical data from patients undergoing non-cardiac and non-neurology surgery over 65 years old from January 2014 to August 2019. Forty-six perioperative variables were used to predict POD. A traditional logistic regression and five machine learning models (Random Forest, GBM, AdaBoost, XGBoost, and a stacking ensemble model) were compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), sensitivity, specificity, and precision. RESULTS: In total, 29,756 patients were enrolled, and the incidence of POD was 3.22% after variable screening. AUCs were 0.783 (0.765-0.8) for the logistic regression method, 0.78 for random forest, 0.76 for GBM, 0.74 for AdaBoost, 0.73 for XGBoost, and 0.77 for the stacking ensemble model. The respective sensitivities for the 6 aforementioned models were 74.2%, 72.2%, 76.8%, 63.6%, 71.6%, and 67.4%. The respective specificities for the 6 aforementioned models were 70.7%, 99.8%, 96.5%, 98.8%, 96.5%, and 96.1%. The respective precision values for the 6 aforementioned models were 7.8%, 52.3%, 55.6%, 57%, 54.5%, and 56.4%. CONCLUSIONS: The optimal application of the logistic regression model could provide quick and convenient POD risk identification to help improve the perioperative management of surgical patients because of its better sensitivity, fewer variables, and easier interpretability than the machine learning model.

Using preoperative N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events and myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery in Chinese advanced-age patients.

BACKGROUND: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is often viewed as an indicator for heart failure. However, the prognostic association and the predictive utility of NT-proBNP for postoperative major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) and myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS) among older patients are unclear. METHODS: In this study, we included 5033 patients aged 65 years or older who underwent noncardiac surgery with preoperative NT-proBNP recorded. Logistic regression was adopted to model the associations between preoperative NT-proBNP and the risk of MACEs and MINS. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the predictive value of NT-proBNP. RESULTS: A total of 5033 patients were enrolled, 63 patients (1.25%) and 525 patients (10.43%) had incident postoperative MACEs and MINS, respectively. Analysis of the receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that the cutoff values of ln (NT-proBNP) for MACEs and MINS were 5.16 (174 pg/mL) and 5.30 (200 pg/mL), respectively. Adding preoperative ln (NT-proBNP) to the Revised Cardiac Risk Index score and the Cardiac and Stroke Risk Model boosted the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves from 0.682 to 0.726 and 0.787 to 0.804, respectively. The inclusion of preoperative NT-proBNP in the prediction models significantly increased the reclassification and discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: Increased preoperative NT-proBNP was associated with a higher risk of postoperative MACEs and MINS. The inclusion of NT-proBNP enhances the predictive ability of the preexisting models.

Intraoperative allogeneic transfusion is associated with postoperative delirium in older patients after total knee and hip arthroplasty.

Objective: To determine whether intraoperative transfusion of allogeneic or autologous blood is associated with an increased incidence of postoperative delirium (POD) after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA). Methods: The medical records of 1,143 older (≥65 years old) patients who received an intraoperative blood transfusion while undergoing total knee or hip arthroplasty at the First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital from 2014 to 2019 were reviewed; of these patients, 742 (64.92%) received allogeneic blood, while 401 (35.08%) received autologous blood. Patients who received autologous transfusion were paired with those received allogeneic transfusion using 1:1 propensity score matching method. The primary outcome was POD. The secondary outcomes were postoperative complications, including heart failure, deep vein thrombosis, myocardial infarction, stroke, and lung infection. Multivariable nominal logistic regression was used to identify any independent associations between intraoperative blood transfusions and POD, and secondary postoperative complications, respectively. Results: Postoperative delirium occurred in 6.6% (49/742) of patients who had received an allogeneic blood transfusion and in 2.0% (8/401) of patients who had received an autologous blood transfusion. It is noteworthy that the multivariable logistic regression demonstrated a significant association between intraoperative allogeneic blood transfusion and POD (odds ratio [OR]: 4.11; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.95-9.77; p < 0.001). After PSM, Allogeneic transfusion was also the strongest predictor for POD (OR: 4.43; 95% CI: 2.09-10.58; p < 0.001). Conclusions: In the patients who had received THA or TKA, intraoperative allogeneic blood transfusions were associated with an increased risk of POD.

Targeting Lymphocyte Activation Gene 3 to Reverse T-Lymphocyte Dysfunction and Improve Survival in Murine Polymicrobial Sepsis.

BACKGROUND: Lymphocyte activation gene 3 (LAG-3) is one of the immune checkpoint molecules, negatively regulating the T-cell reactions. The present study investigated the role of LAG-3 in sepsis-induced T-lymphocyte disability. METHODS: Mice sepsis was induced by cecal ligation and puncture (CLP). LAG-3 expression on some immune cells were detected 24 hours after CLP. LAG-3 knockout and anti-LAG-3 antibody were applied to investigate the effects on the survival, bacterial clearance. Cytokine levels, T-cell counts, and the presence of apoptosis (in blood, spleen, and thymus) were also determined. In vitro T-cell apoptosis, interferon γ secretion, and proliferation were measured. The expression of interleukin 2 receptor on T cells was also determined after CLP. RESULTS: LAG-3 was up-regulated on CD4+/CD8+ T, CD19+ B, natural killer, CD4+CD25+ regulatory T cells and dendritic cells. Both LAG-3 knockout and anti-LAG-3 antibody had a positive effect on survival and on blood or peritoneal bacterial clearance in mice undergoing CLP. Cytokine levels and T-cell apoptosis decreased in anti-LAG-3 antibody-treated mice. Induced T-cell apoptosis decreased, whereas interferon γ secretion and proliferation were improved by anti-LAG-3 antibody in vitro. Interleukin 2 receptor was up-regulated on T cells in both wild-type and LAG-3-knockout mice undergoing CLP. CONCLUSIONS: LAG-3 knockout or anti-LAG-3 antibody blockade protected mice undergoing CLP from sepsis-associated immunodysfunction and may be a new target for the treatment.

Propofol postconditioning protects H9c2 cells from hypoxia/reoxygenation injury by inducing autophagy via the SAPK/JNK pathway.

Propofol postconditioning (P­PostC) offers cardioprotection in mice, and the upregulation of autophagy protects cardiac cells against ischemia/reperfusion injury. The present study aimed to examine the effects of P­PostC on the induction of autophagy and its potential roles in hypoxia/reoxygenation (H/R) injury. Rat heart­derived H9c2 cells were exposed to H/R, comprising 6 h of hypoxia followed by 4 h of reoxygenation, as well as postconditioning with various concentrations of propofol at the onset of reperfusion. Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) activity and the rate of cell apoptosis were measured to evaluate the degree of cardiomyocyte H/R injury. The induction of autophagy in myocytes subjected to H/R injury and P­PostC was detected by western blotting and immunofluorescence. Furthermore, the activation of c­Jun N­terminal kinase (JNK) in cells treated with P­PostC with or without co­treatment with SP600125, an inhibitor of JNK, was also determined by western blotting. P­PostC reduced the activity of LDH in the culture medium and the percentage of apoptotic cells compared with cells in the untreated H/R group. In addition, P­PostC induced autophagy and promoted survival signaling in H9c2 cardiac myoblast cells. The inhibition of autophagy by 3­methyladenine treatment diminished the cardioprotective effects of P­PostC. These results indicated that propofol postconditioning promoted cell survival through the induction of autophagy in H9c2 cardiac cells, and that the stress­activated protein kinase/JNK survival pathway may be partly involved in P­PostC­induced autophagy.

Pulse pressure variation shows a direct linear correlation with tidal volume in anesthetized healthy patients.

BACKGROUND: The settings of mechanical ventilation, like tidal volume (VT), occasionally need to be adjusted in the process of anesthesia for some special reasons. The aim of this study was therefore to assess the relationship between pulse pressure variations (PPVs) in different settings of VT in anesthetized healthy patients under mechanical ventilation. METHODS: Sixty nine ASA I-II patients scheduled for gastrointestinal surgery under general anesthesia were included in this prospective study. All the patients were ventilated at a VT of 6, 8 or 10 ml/kg (predicted body weight) with no positive end expiratory pressure (PEEP) in a random order after intubation. PPV, mean arterial blood pressure, and other hemodynamic and respiratory parameters were recorded in each VT setting respectively after Partial Pressure of End-Tidal Expiration Carbon Dioxide (PetCO2) maintained between 30 mmHg and 40 mmHg by changing Respiratory Rate (RR) before incision. RESULTS: The values of PPV at different settings of VT showed a tight correlation between each other (6 vs. 8 ml/kg: r = 0.97, P < 0.0001; 6 vs.10 ml/kg: r = 0.95, P < 0.0001; 8 vs. 10 ml/kg: r = 0.98, P < 0.0001, respectively). CONCLUSION: There is a direct linear correlation between PPVs at different tidal volumes in anesthetized ASA I-II patients. PPV in any of the 3 VT settings (6, 8 or 10 ml/kg) can deduce that in any other 2 settings. Further studies are needed to explore the effect of intraoperative confounders for this knowledge to be clinically applied. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01950949 , www.clinicaltrials.gov , July 26, 2013.

Gene expression profiling reveals the defining features of monocytes from septic patients with compensatory anti-inflammatory response syndrome.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize the expression profiles of genes in purified monocytes from septic patients during systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and compensatory anti-inflammatory response syndrome (CARS), and then to investigate the potential mechanism of monocyte deactivation. METHODS: Lipopolysaccharides (LPS)-induced cytokine responses, phagocytosis assay and migration assay were performed in monocytes from SIRS patients, CARS patients and healthy volunteers (n = 8). After functional assays, each pair of samples from the same group was pooled into one for gene expression analysis. All new samples (n = 4) were hybridized on NimbleGen human gene expression 12 × 135 K microarrays, and selected genes were validated by real-time polymerase chain reaction. Pathway analysis and Gene Ontology analysis were performed on differentially expressed genes using Agilent GeneSpring (version 11.0). RESULTS: A set of genes related to pro-inflammation, phagocytosis, chemotaxis, antigen presentation, and anti-apoptosis were significantly down-regulated, while some genes associated with pro-apoptosis and anti-inflammation were up-regulated instead on monocytes from CARS patients compared with SIRS patients and healthy volunteers. Monocytes from CARS patients showed impaired production of TNF-α and IL-6, and increased release of IL-10 when stimulated by LPS. Functional analysis confirmed reduced phagocytosis and migratory activity of monocytes from CARS patients. Human leukocyte antigen-DR (HLA-DR) measurements demonstrated decreased expression of HLA-DR on monocytes from CARS patients. CONCLUSION: Monocytes from CARS patients exhibited significant changes in mRNA expression of genes associated with phagocytosis, antigen presentation, inflammatory response, cell migration, and apoptosis, which might cause deactivation of monocytes during CARS.