A prospective observational cohort study comparing the treatment effectiveness and safety of ciclosporin, dupilumab and methotrexate in adult and paediatric patients with atopic dermatitis: results from the UK-Irish A-STAR register.

BACKGROUND: The main conventional systemic atopic dermatitis (AD) treatments are methotrexate (MTX) and ciclosporin (CyA). Dupilumab was the first novel systemic agent to enter routine clinical practice. There are no head-to-head randomised controlled trials or real-world studies comparing these agents directly. Network meta-analyses provide indirect comparative efficacy and safety data and have shown strong evidence for dupilumab and CyA. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to compare the real-world clinical effectiveness and safety of CyA, dupilumab and MTX in AD. METHODS: We compared the effectiveness and safety of these systemic agents in a prospective observational cohort study of adult and paediatric patients recruited into the UK-Irish Atopic eczema Systemic TherApy Register (A-STAR). Treatment effectiveness measures included Eczema Area and Severity Index (EASI), Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM), Peak Pruritus Numerical Rating Scale (PP-NRS), Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) and children's DLQI (cDLQI). Minimum duration of treatment was 28 days and follow-up was 12 months. Adjusted Cox-regression was used to compare the hazards of achieving EASI-50, EASI-75 and EASI-90 over time, and linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate changes in efficacy scores. Treatment safety was assessed by examining adverse events (AEs) at follow-up visits. RESULTS: 488 patients (n=311 adults and n=177 children/adolescents) on dupilumab (n=282), methotrexate (n=149), or CyA (n=57) were included. CyA and MTX were primarily used first line, while dupilumab was mainly a second line systemic as per UK National Institute of Clinical and Care Excellence (NICE) recommendations. EASI-50, EASI-75 and EASI-90 were achieved more rapidly in the dupilumab and CyA groups compared to MTX. After adjustment for previous severity, the reduction in EASI, POEM, PP-NRS and DLQI was greater for patients treated with dupilumab compared to MTX. In severe patients the reduction in EASI, POEM, and PP-NRS was even greater with CyA. The incidence of AEs was similar across groups (734, 654 and 594 per 10,000 person-month on CyA, dupilumab and MTX respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This real-world comparison of CyA, dupilumab and MTX in AD suggests that dupilumab is consistently more effective than MTX and that CyA is most effective in very severe disease within one follow-up year.

Potential impact of European Medicines Agency measures to minimise risk of serious side effects on JAKi prescribing and utilisation in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: Janus kinase inhibitors (JAKi) or targeted synthetic (ts) disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) effectively treat rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, due to safety concerns, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) published risk minimisation measures limiting JAKi prescription to certain at-risk patients unless no suitable alternative is available. This analysis included patients who had started their first-ever JAKi before EMA measures were published in a large national cohort study to investigate the potential impact of these measures on JAKi prescribing and utilisation in UK. METHOD: RA patients starting first-ever JAK inhibitor therapy in BSRBR-RA between 13-February-2017 and 31-May-2022 were included. Percentages of patients meeting EMA risk criteria were presented. For at-risk patients, previous number of distinct biological (b) DMARD classes were described. RESULT: A total of 1341 patients were included, and 80% (N = 1075) met ≥1 EMA risk criterion. Of those who met ≥1 risk criterion, 529 patients (49%) had received JAKi as their first or second b/tsDMARD class, whereas 299 (28%) had received ≥3 prior bDMARD classes. CONCLUSION: Four-in-five RA patients commencing JAKi before the EMA advisory were considered 'at-risk' with prescribing only advised if there was no suitable alternative. Almost a third of those patients had already received ≥3 bDMARDs classes, and alternative therapies would be very limited for them; meanwhile, suitable alternatives might have existed for the remaining proportion, especially for those who received JAKi as their first or second b/tsDMARD, and re-evaluation of the suitability of their treatment may be needed.

Trends for opioid prescribing and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in patients with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases between 2006 and 2021.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate opioid prescribing trends and assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on opioid prescribing in rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMDs). METHODS: Adult patients with RA, PsA, axial spondyloarthritis (AxSpA), SLE, OA and FM with opioid prescriptions between 1 January 2006 and 31 August 2021 without cancer in UK primary care were included. Age- and gender-standardized yearly rates of new and prevalent opioid users were calculated between 2006 and 2021. For prevalent users, monthly measures of mean morphine milligram equivalents (MME)/day were calculated between 2006 and 2021. To assess the impact of the pandemic, we fitted regression models to the monthly number of prevalent opioid users between January 2015 and August 2021. The time coefficient reflects the trend pre-pandemic and the interaction term coefficient represents the change in the trend during the pandemic. RESULTS: The study included 1 313 519 RMD patients. New opioid users for RA, PsA and FM increased from 2.6, 1.0 and 3.4/10 000 persons in 2006 to 4.5, 1.8 and 8.7, respectively, in 2018 or 2019. This was followed by a fall to 2.4, 1.2 and 5.9, respectively, in 2021. Prevalent opioid users for all RMDs increased from 2006 but plateaued or dropped beyond 2018, with a 4.5-fold increase in FM between 2006 and 2021. In this period, MME/day increased for all RMDs, with the highest for FM (≥35). During COVID-19 lockdowns, RA, PsA and FM showed significant changes in the trend of prevalent opioid users. The trend for FM increased pre-pandemic and started decreasing during the pandemic. CONCLUSION: The plateauing or decreasing trend of opioid users for RMDs after 2018 may reflect the efforts to tackle rising opioid prescribing in the UK. The pandemic led to fewer people on opioids for most RMDs, providing reassurance that there was no sudden increase in opioid prescribing during the pandemic.

Evaluation of serious infections, including Mycobacterium tuberculosis, during treatment with biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs: does line of therapy matter?

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate if and how the incidence of serious infection (SI) and active tuberculosis (TB) differ among seven biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) considering the line of therapy. METHODS: Patients with RA from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register-RA cohort who initiated etanercept, certolizumab, infliximab, adalimumab, abatacept, rituximab, or tocilizumab from the first to fifth line of therapy were included. Follow-up extended up to three years. Primary outcome was SI, secondary outcome was TB. Event rates were calculated and compared using Cox proportional-hazards, controlling for confounding with inverse probability of treatment weights. Comparisons were made overall and stratified by line of therapy. Sensitivity analysis restricted to all treatment courses from 2009 (tocilizumab availability) until end of study (2018). RESULTS: Among 33 897 treatment courses (62 513 patient-years) the incidence of SI was 4.4/100 patient-years (95%CI 4.2-4.5). After adjustment, hazards ratios (HR) of SI were slightly higher with adalimumab and infliximab compared with etanercept. However, no clear pattern was observed when stratifying by line of therapy, in terms of incidence rate or hazards ratio. Sensitivity analyses showed similar HR among these treatments. Regarding TB, all 49 cases occurred during the first three lines of treatment and rarely since 2009. CONCLUSION: The risk of serious infections does not appear to be influenced by the line of therapy in patients with RA. However, the risk of tuberculosis seems to be more frequent during the initial lines of treatment or prior to 2009.

Outcomes following switching from etanercept originator to etanercept biosimilar in 1024 RA patients: A matched-analysis of the BSRBR-RA.

OBJECTIVES: Adults with RA are being switched from etanercept originator to biosimilar in non-medical/cost-saving switching. This analysis aims to investigate outcomes in these patients, including (a) drug survival and (b) disease activity at six and 12-month, compared with those who remain on originator. METHODS: Using BSRBR-RA, those who switched directly from etanercept originator to biosimilar were identified and matched to patients receiving originator, based on gender, age, disease duration, originator start year. Drug survival was calculated; Cox-proportional hazard models assessed differences in drug persistence between those who switched versus remaining on originator. Change in DAS28 after six and 12-months was compared between cohorts. Multiple imputation was used. RESULTS: 1024 adults with RA switching from etanercept originator to biosimilar were included, with a matched cohort of patients remaining on originator. Patients who switched onto a biosimilar product were no more likely to discontinue etanercept treatment versus those who remained on originator; hazard ratio 1.06 (95%CI 0.89-1.26), with 65% of patients remaining on treatment at three years. Ninety-five (9%) patients switched back to originator within the first year. After six and 12-months, biosimilar patients were no more likely to have a worsening of DAS28 (>0.6units) compared with those who remained on originator. CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest matched comparative effectiveness analysis showing patients switched from etanercept originator to biosimilar appear to do just as well with regards to disease activity and drug persistence compared with those who remained on originator. These data will be reassuring to clinicians and patients regarding non-medical switching.

Drug survival and safety of biosimilars and originator adalimumab in the treatment of psoriasis: a multinational cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory skin disease. Adalimumab is an effective but previously expensive biological treatment for psoriasis. The introduction of biosimilars following the patent expiry of the originator adalimumab Humira has reduced the unit cost of treatment. However, the long-term effectiveness and safety of adalimumab biosimilars for treating psoriasis in real-world settings are uncertain and may be a barrier to widespread usage. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study aims to compare the drug survival and safety of adalimumab biosimilars to adalimumab originator for the treatment of psoriasis. We will use both routinely collected healthcare databases and dedicated pharmacovigilance registries from the PsoNet initiative, including data from the UK, France and Spain. We will conduct a cohort study using a prevalent new user design. We will match patients on previous adalimumab exposure time to create two equal-sized cohorts of biosimilar and originator users. The coprimary outcomes are drug survival, defined by the time from cohort entry to discontinuation of the drug of interest; and risk of serious adverse events, defined by adverse events leading to hospitalisation or death. Cox proportional hazards models will be fitted to calculate HRs as the effect estimate for the outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The participating registries agree with the Declaration of Helsinki and received approval from local ethics committees. The results of the study will be published in scientific journals and presented at international dermatology conferences by the end of 2023.

BayesGmed: An R-package for Bayesian causal mediation analysis.

BACKGROUND: The past decade has seen an explosion of research in causal mediation analysis. However, most analytic tools developed so far rely on frequentist methods which may not be robust in the case of small sample sizes. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach for causal mediation analysis based on Bayesian g-formula, which will overcome the limitations of the frequentist methods. METHODS: We created BayesGmed, an R-package for fitting Bayesian mediation models in R. The application of the methodology (and software tool) is demonstrated by a secondary analysis of data collected as part of the MUSICIAN study, a randomised controlled trial of remotely delivered cognitive behavioural therapy (tCBT) for people with chronic pain. We tested the hypothesis that the effect of tCBT would be mediated by improvements in active coping, passive coping, fear of movement and sleep problems. We then demonstrate the use of informative priors to conduct probabilistic sensitivity analysis around violations of causal identification assumptions. RESULT: The analysis of MUSICIAN data shows that tCBT has better-improved patients' self-perceived change in health status compared to treatment as usual (TAU). The adjusted log-odds of tCBT compared to TAU range from 1.491 (95% CI: 0.452-2.612) when adjusted for sleep problems to 2.264 (95% CI: 1.063-3.610) when adjusted for fear of movement. Higher scores of fear of movement (log-odds, -0.141 [95% CI: -0.245, -0.048]), passive coping (log-odds, -0.217 [95% CI: -0.351, -0.104]), and sleep problem (log-odds, -0.179 [95% CI: -0.291, -0.078]) leads to lower odds of a positive self-perceived change in health status. The result of BayesGmed, however, shows that none of the mediated effects are statistically significant. We compared BayesGmed with the mediation R- package, and the results were comparable. Finally, our sensitivity analysis using the BayesGmed tool shows that the direct and total effect of tCBT persists even for a large departure in the assumption of no unmeasured confounding. CONCLUSION: This paper comprehensively overviews causal mediation analysis and provides an open-source software package to fit Bayesian causal mediation models.

Effectiveness and survival of methotrexate versus adalimumab in patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis: a cohort study from the British Association of Dermatologists Biologics and Immunomodulators Register (BADBIR).

BACKGROUND: Most information on the comparative effectiveness and survival of methotrexate (MTX) and adalimumab (ADA) in the treatment of psoriasis is from randomized control trials and may not translate to the everyday clinical setting. OBJECTIVES: To determine the real-world effectiveness and survival of MTX and ADA in patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis registered in the British Association of Dermatologists Biologics and Immunomodulators Register (BADBIR). METHODS: Eligible patients were registered in BADBIR, ≥ 16 years of age and receiving a first course of MTX or ADA between September 2007 and December 2021, with ≥ 6 months of follow-up. Effectiveness was defined as achieving an absolute Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) ≤ 2 reported ≥ 13 weeks after the treatment start date until the stop date. The average treatment effect (ATE) was estimated using inverse probability of treatment weighting with propensity score, including baseline covariates. ATE results were presented as risk ratios (RR). A flexible parametric model was used to estimate adjusted standardized average survival, defined as treatment discontinuation associated with ineffectiveness or the occurrence of adverse events (AEs) at 6, 12 and 24 months. Restricted mean survival time (RMST) at 2 years of treatment exposure was calculated. RESULTS: In total, 6575 patients (median age 44 years; 44% female) were analysed; 2659 (40.4%) were prescribed MTX and 3916 (59.5%) ADA. The proportion of patients achieving PASI ≤ 2 was higher in the ADA cohort (77.4%) than in the MTX cohort (37.4%). ADA was more effective than MTX [RR 2.20, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.98-2.45]. Overall survival associated with ineffectiveness or AEs was lower in the MTX cohort than in the ADA cohort at 6 months [survival estimate 69.7 (95% CI 67.9-71.5) vs. 90.6 (95% CI 89.8-91.4)], 1 year [survival estimate 52.5 (95% CI 50.4-54.8) vs. 80.6 (95% CI 79.5-81.8)] and 2 years [survival estimate 34.8 (95% CI 32.5-37.2) vs. 68.6 (95% CI 67.2-70.0)]. The difference in RMST (years) overall, or when stratified by ineffectiveness and AEs, was 0.53 (95% CI 0.49-0.58), 0.37 (95% CI 0.33-0.42) and 0.29 (95% CI 0.25-0.33), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Patients on ADA were twice as likely to be clear or nearly clear of psoriasis and were less likely to discontinue their medication than patients on MTX. Findings from this real-world cohort provide important information to aid clinicians managing patients with psoriasis.

Biosimilars for the Treatment of Psoriasis: A Systematic Review of Clinical Trials and Observational Studies.

Importance: Biosimilars have the potential to reduce costs for the management of moderate-to-severe psoriasis compared with originators. However, the extrapolation of evidence enables the approval of a biosimilar for use in indications held by the originator without directly being studied in clinical trials. Thus, biosimilars can be approved for psoriasis based on extrapolated evidence from other diseases. The availability of evidence for the effectiveness and safety of biosimilars for the treatment of psoriasis is therefore unclear. Objective: To compare the efficacy/effectiveness and safety of biosimilars with originator biologics for the treatment of patients with psoriasis. Evidence Review: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, ClinicalTrials.gov, and The European Union Clinical Trials Register were searched in August 2022. Eligible studies were appraised using the Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 and ROBINS-I tools. All analyses were conducted from September 2022 to November 2022. Findings: Fourteen trials (10 adalimumab, 2 etanercept, 1 infliximab, and 1 ustekinumab) and 3 cohort studies (1 adalimumab, 1 etanercept, 1 infliximab and etanercept) were included. Twelve trials compared biosimilars with originators in originator-naive patients (starters), and 11 trials compared switching from originator to biosimilar (switchers) with continuous originator treatments. There was no clinically or statistically significant difference in rates of achieving 75% improvement in Psoriasis Area and Severity Index scores and risks of adverse events (AEs) at week 16 and week 52 between the comparators. Two cohort studies showed no difference in effectiveness and safety outcomes between originators and biosimilars, whereas 1 study reported more AEs in patients who switched to biosimilars of adalimumab at 12 months. Three trials showed low risk of bias, whereas 11 trials had moderate risk of bias. All cohort studies had moderate to high risk of bias. Conclusions and Relevance: In this systematic review, there was no clinically or statistically significant difference in the efficacy and safety between biosimilars and originators for the treatment of patients with psoriasis. Most of the available evidence was based on randomized clinical trials, although high-quality real-world evidence was lacking. Future studies are needed to examine the long-term effectiveness and safety of biosimilars for the treatment of patients with psoriasis.

Uptake of tumour necrosis factor-alpha inhibitor biosimilars for psoriasis: a drug utilization study from the British Association of Dermatologists Biologic and Immunomodulators Register (BADBIR).

BACKGROUND: Tumour necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors (TNFi) have revolutionized the treatment of moderate-to-severe psoriasis. Following patent expiry of the originator biologics, TNFi biosimilars became available, presenting the opportunity for significant reductions in drug costs. OBJECTIVES: To describe the uptake of TNFi biosimilars for psoriasis treatment in the UK and Ireland. METHODS: This observational cohort study utilizes data from the British Association of Dermatologists Biologic and Immunomodulators Register (BADBIR), a national pharmacovigilance study register for patients with psoriasis on systemic treatments. We analysed biosimilar uptake trends over time in nine geographical regions of England along with Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. We assessed the incidence of switching to biosimilars in an originator-user cohort (switchers). Patients on originators infliximab, etanercept and adalimumab at the time originator patents expired, entered the cohort on 1 February 2015, August 2015 and October 2018, respectively, and were followed up until 31 October 2021. Trends in biosimilar initiations were assessed in an adalimumab-naïve cohort who started adalimumab between 1 October 2018 and 31 July 2019 (starters). We assessed the associations between patient factors and originator-to-biosimilar switching and biosimilar initiation using a multivariable Cox regression model and a multivariable logistic regression model, respectively. RESULTS: Included in the originator-user cohort were 4202 patients (209 on infliximab, 742 on etanercept and 3251 on adalimumab). For infliximab, etanercept and adalimumab, respectively, the cumulative incidence of originator-to-biosimilar switching increased with time to 14.8%, 23.6% and 66.6% after 3 years. Across geographical regions, 3-year switching rates varied from 0% to 43.7% for infliximab; from 0% to 40.4% for etanercept; and from 12.5% to 84.3% for adalimumab. Out of the 528 patients included in the adalimumab-naïve cohort, 67.8% started on biosimilars. Originator-to-biosimilar switching and biosimilar initiation were more common in men and in patients who had lower Psoriasis Area and Severity Index at cohort entry. CONCLUSIONS: The uptake of biosimilars increased over time and varied considerably across the UK and Ireland; adalimumab had the highest biosimilar uptake rate compared with that of other TNFi drugs.

Modelling and classifying joint trajectories of self-reported mood and pain in a large cohort study.

It is well-known that mood and pain interact with each other, however individual-level variability in this relationship has been less well quantified than overall associations between low mood and pain. Here, we leverage the possibilities presented by mobile health data, in particular the "Cloudy with a Chance of Pain" study, which collected longitudinal data from the residents of the UK with chronic pain conditions. Participants used an App to record self-reported measures of factors including mood, pain and sleep quality. The richness of these data allows us to perform model-based clustering of the data as a mixture of Markov processes. Through this analysis we discover four endotypes with distinct patterns of co-evolution of mood and pain over time. The differences between endotypes are sufficiently large to play a role in clinical hypothesis generation for personalised treatments of comorbid pain and low mood.

Etanercept originator versus etanercept biosimilar for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis as a first biologic: results from the BSRBR-RA.

OBJECTIVES: Etanercept biosimilars show comparable efficacy to their originators among biologic-naïve patients with RA in randomized controlled trials. Nationwide guidelines have obligated prescribing of etanercept biosimilars from 2016, resulting in significant cost savings. This analysis aimed to compare the effectiveness of etanercept originator vs etanercept biosimilar amongst biologic-naïve RA patients treated in routine clinical practice in the UK. METHODS: Biologic-naïve RA patients starting etanercept in the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register in Rhematoid Arthritis (BSRBR-RA) cohort study from 2010 were included. Data collected at start of therapy includes patient demographics and disease activity. Follow-up data includes changes in disease activity and anti-rheumatic therapy. Six- and 12-month primary outcomes include DAS for 28-joints (DAS28) remission, EULAR response and minimal clinically important difference in function. Etanercept drug survival was assessed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression, including reasons for treatment withdrawal. Multiple imputation accounted for missing data. Propensity-decile adjustment was used to account for confounding by indication. RESULTS: A total of 1806 biologic-naïve RA patients started etanercept: 1009 originator, 797 biosimilar. At 6 and 12 months, the proportion of patients achieving DAS28 remission and EULAR response were similar between treatments. During follow-up, 19% of originator patients switched onto etanercept biosimilar. Patients were censored at time of switch. Patients on originator were no more likely to stop therapy vs biosimilar; 71% of originator and 76% of biosimilar patients remained on therapy at 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: In one of the largest analyses of patients with RA, biologic-naïve RA patients treated with etanercept originator showed similar outcomes vs biosimilar using real-world data. Drug survival, and disease activity after 6 and 12 months of therapy, was similar between cohorts.

Day-to-day variability of knee pain and the relationship with physical activity in people with knee osteoarthritis: an observational, feasibility study using consumer smartwatches.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the feasibility of using smartwatches in people with knee osteoarthritis (OA) to determine the day-to-day variability of pain and the relationship between daily pain and step count. DESIGN: Observational, feasibility study. SETTING: In July 2017, the study was advertised in newspapers, magazines and, on social media. Participants had to be living/willing to travel to Manchester. Recruitment was in September 2017 and data collection was completed in January 2018. PARTICIPANTS: 26 participants aged>50 years with self-diagnosed symptomatic knee OA were recruited. OUTCOME MEASURES: Participants were provided with a consumer cellular smartwatch with a bespoke app that triggered a series of daily questions including two times per day questions about level of knee pain and one time per month question from the pain subscale of the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) questionnaire. The smartwatch also recorded daily step counts. RESULTS: Of the 25 participants, 13 were men and their mean age was 65 years (standard deviation (SD) 8 years). The smartwatch app was successful in simultaneously assessing and recording data on knee pain and step count in real time. Knee pain was categorised into sustained high/low or fluctuating levels, but there was considerable day-to-day variation within these categories. Levels of knee pain in general correlated with pain assessed by KOOS. Those with sustained high/low levels of pain had a similar daily step count average (mean 3754 (SD 2524)/4307 (SD 2992)), but those with fluctuating pain had much lower step count levels (mean 2064 (SD 1716)). CONCLUSIONS: Smartwatches can be used to assess pain and physical activity in knee OA. Larger studies may help inform a better understanding of causal links between physical activity patterns and pain. In time, this could inform development of personalised physical activity recommendations for people with knee OA.

Effectiveness and persistence of acitretin, ciclosporin, fumaric acid esters and methotrexate for patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis: a cohort study from BADBIR.

BACKGROUND: Real-world data evaluating effectiveness and persistence of systemic therapies for patients with psoriasis are limited. Objectives To determine the effectiveness and persistence of acitretin, ciclosporin, fumaric acid esters (FAEs) and methotrexate in patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis. METHODS: Data from the British Association of Dermatologists Biologics and Immunomodulators Register (BADBIR), a prospective, multicentre pharmacovigilance register of patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis receiving biologic and/or conventional systemic therapies, were analysed. Eligible patients were ≥ 16 years of age receiving a first course of acitretin, ciclosporin, FAEs or methotrexate between 2007 and 2021 with ≥ 6 months' follow-up. Effectiveness was defined as achieving absolute Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (aPASI) ≤ 2 reported ≥ 4 weeks after treatment start date until date of cessation. To identify baseline clinical variables associated with treatment effectiveness, we used multivariable logistic regression models estimating the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of achieving aPASI ≤ 2. To describe drug persistence associated with ineffectiveness, occurrence of adverse events or other reasons for discontinuation, survival estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained using a flexible parametric model. Results were obtained using multiple imputed data. RESULTS: In total, 5430 patients were included in the analysis. Overall, 1023 (19%) patients were receiving acitretin, 1401 (26%) patients were on ciclosporin, 347 (6%) patients were on FAEs, and 2659 (49%) patients were receiving methotrexate at registration. The proportion of patients who achieved aPASI ≤ 2 was lower for those treated with acitretin [n = 118 (21%)] compared with those receiving ciclosporin [n = 233 (34%)], FAEs [n = 43 (29%)] and methotrexate [n = 372 (32%)]. Factors associated with ineffectiveness included prior experience to previous nonbiologic systemic therapies (acitretin) (aOR 0.64, 95% CI 0.42-0.96), male sex (methotrexate) (aOR 0.58, 95% CI 0.46-0.74), comorbidities (aOR 0.70, 95% CI 0.51-0.97) and alcohol consumption (≤ 14 units per week) (ciclosporin) (aOR 0.70, 95% CI 0.50-0.98). Persistence associated with all reasons for discontinuation showed better survival for methotrexate compared with acitretin, ciclosporin and FAEs cohorts at 12 months [survival estimate 46.1 (95% CI 44.0-48.3), 31.9 (95% CI 29.4-34.7), 30.0 (95% CI 27.5-32.4) and 35.0 (95% CI 29.9-40.9), respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: The real-world effectiveness and persistence of acitretin, ciclosporin, FAEs and methotrexate were generally low. Previous nonbiologic systemic therapies, male sex, comorbidities and alcohol consumption were risk factors associated with treatment ineffectiveness.

"Take up to eight tablets per day": Incorporating free-text medication instructions into a transparent and reproducible process for preparing drug exposure data for pharmacoepidemiology.

PURPOSE: Routinely collected prescription data provides drug exposure information for pharmacoepidemiology, informing start/stop dates and dosage. Prescribing information includes structured data and unstructured free-text instructions, which can include inherent variability, such as "one to two tablets up to four times a day". Preparing drug exposure data from raw prescriptions to a research ready dataset is rarely fully reported, yet assumptions have considerable implications for pharmacoepidemiology. This may have bigger consequences for "pro re nata" (PRN) drugs. Our aim was, using a worked example of opioids and fracture risk, to examine the impact of incorporating narrative prescribing instructions and subsequent drug preparation assumptions on adverse event rates. METHODS: R-packages for extracting free-text medication prescription instructions in a structured form (doseminer) and an algorithm for transparently processing drug exposure information (drugprepr) were developed. Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD was used to define a cohort of adult new opioid users without prior cancer. A retrospective cohort study was performed using data between January 1, 2017 and July 31, 2018. We tested the impact of varying drug preparation assumptions by estimating the risk of opioids on fracture risk using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: During the study window, 60 394 patients were identified with 190 754 opioid prescriptions. Free-text prescribing instruction variability, where there was flexibility in the number of tablets to be administered, was present in 42% prescriptions. Variations in the decisions made during preparing raw data for analysis led to marked differences impacting the event number (n = 303-415) and person years of drug exposure (5619-9832). The distribution of hazard ratios as a function of the decisions ranged from 2.71 (95% CI: 2.31, 3.18) to 3.24 (2.76, 3.82). CONCLUSIONS: Assumptions made during the drug preparation process, especially for those with variability in prescription instructions, can impact results of subsequent risk estimates. The developed R packages can improve transparency related to drug preparation assumptions, in line with best practice advocated by international pharmacoepidemiology guidelines.

Influence of Social Support, Financial Status, and Lifestyle on the Disparity Between Inflammation and Disability in Rheumatoid Arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate how social support, financial status, and lifestyle influence the development of excess disability in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: Data were obtained from the Étude et Suivi des Polyarthrites Indifférenciées Récentes (ESPOIR) cohort study of people with RA. A previous analysis identified groups with similar inflammation trajectories but markedly different disability over 10 years; those in the higher disability trajectory groups were defined as having "excess disability." Self-reported data regarding contextual factors (social support, financial situation, lifestyle) were obtained from participants, and they completed patient-reported outcome measures (pain, fatigue, anxiety, depression) at baseline. The direct effect of the contextual factors on excess disability and the effect mediated by patient-reported outcome measures were assessed using structural equation models. Findings were validated in 2 independent data sets (Norfolk Arthritis Register [NOAR], Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Network [ERAN]). RESULTS: Of 538 included ESPOIR participants (mean age ± SD 48.3 ± 12.2 years; 79.2% women), 200 participants (37.2%) were in the excess disability group. Less social support (ß = 0.17 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.08, 0.26]), worse financial situation (ß = 0.24 [95% CI 0.14, 0.34]), less exercise (ß = 0.17 [95% CI 0.09-0.25]), and less education (ß = 0.15 [95% CI 0.06, 0.23]) were associated with excess disability group membership; smoking, alcohol consumption, and body mass index were not. Fatigue and depression mediated a small proportion of these effects. Similar results were seen in NOAR and ERAN. CONCLUSION: Greater emphasis is needed on the economic and social contexts of individuals with RA at presentation; these factors might influence disability over the following decade.

Early infection risk in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus treated with rituximab or belimumab from the British Isles Lupus Assessment Group Biologics Register (BILAG-BR): a prospective longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are at an increased risk of infection relative to the general population. We aimed to describe the frequency and risk factors for serious infections in patients with moderate-to-severe SLE treated with rituximab, belimumab, and standard of care therapies in a large national observational cohort. METHODS: The British Isles Lupus Assessment Group Biologics Register (BILAG-BR) is a UK-based prospective register of patients with SLE. Patients were recruited by their treating physician as part of their scheduled care from 64 centres across the UK by use of a standardised case report form. Inclusion criteria for the BILAG-BR included age older than 5 years, ability to provide informed consent, a diagnosis of SLE, and starting a new biological therapy within the last 12 months or a new standard of care drug within the last month. The primary outcome for this study was the rate of serious infections within the first 12 months of therapy. Serious infections were defined as those requiring intravenous antibiotic treatment, hospital admission, or resulting in morbidity or death. Infection and mortality data were collected from study centres and further mortality data were collected from the UK Office for National Statistics. The relationship between serious infection and drug type was analysed using a multiple-failure Cox proportional hazards model. FINDINGS: Between July 1, 2010, and Feb 23, 2021, 1383 individuals were recruited to the BILAG-BR. 335 patients were excluded from this analysis. The remaining 1048 participants contributed 1002·7 person-years of follow-up and included 746 (71%) participants on rituximab, 119 (11%) participants on belimumab, and 183 (17%) participants on standard of care. The median age of the cohort was 39 years (IQR 30-50), 942 (90%) of 1048 patients were women and 106 (10%) were men. Of the patients with available ethnicity data, 514 (56%) of 911 were White, 169 (19%) were Asian, 161 (18%) were Black, and 67 (7%) were of multiple-mixed or other ethnic backgrounds. 118 serious infections occurred in 76 individuals during the 12-month study period, which included 92 serious infections in 58 individuals on rituximab, eight serious infections in five individuals receiving belimumab, and 18 serious infections in 13 individuals on standard of care. The overall crude incidence rate of serious infection was 117·7 (95% CI 98·3-141·0) per 1000 person-years. Compared with standard of care, the serious infection risk was similar in the rituximab (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1·68 [0·60-4·68]) and belimumab groups (1·01 [0·21-4·80]). Across the whole cohort in multivariate analysis, serious infection risk was associated with prednisolone dose (>10 mg; 2·38 [95%CI 1·47-3·84]), hypogammaglobulinaemia (<6 g/L; 2·16 [1·38-3·37]), and multimorbidity (1·45 [1·17-1·80]). Additional concomitant immunosuppressive use appeared to be associated with a reduced risk (0·60 [0·41-0·90]). We found no significant safety signals regarding atypical infections. Six infection-related deaths occurred at a median of 121 days (IQR 60-151) days from cohort entry. INTERPRETATION: In patients with moderate-to-severe SLE, rituximab, belimumab, and standard immunosuppressive therapy have similar serious infection risks. Key risk factors for serious infections included multimorbidity, hypogammaglobulinaemia, and increased glucocorticoid doses. When considering the risk of serious infection, we propose that immunosupppressives, rituximab, and belimumab should be prioritised as mainstay therapies to optimise SLE management and support proactive minimisation of glucocorticoid use. FUNDING: None.

The impact of frailty on patient-reported outcomes following hip and knee arthroplasty.

AIM: to determine the impact of frailty on patient-reported outcomes following hip and knee arthroplasty. METHODS: we used linked primary and secondary care electronic health records. Frailty was assessed using the electronic frailty index (categorised: fit, mild, moderate, severe frailty). We determined the association between frailty category and post-operative Oxford hip/knee score (OHS/OKS) using Tobit regression. We calculated the proportion of patients in each frailty category who achieved the minimally important change (MIC) in OHS (≥8 points) and OKS (≥7 points) and the proportion who reported a successful outcome (hip/knee problems either 'much better' or 'a little better' following surgery). RESULTS: About 42,512 people who had a hip arthroplasty and 49,208 who had a knee arthroplasty contributed data. In a Tobit model adjusted for pre-operative OHS/OKS, age, sex and quintile of index of multiple deprivation, increasing frailty was associated with decreasing post-operative OHS and OKS, respectively, ß-coefficient (95% CI) in severely frail versus fit, -6.97 (-7.44, -6.49) and - 5.88 (-6.28, -5.47). The proportion of people who achieved the MIC in OHS and OKS, respectively, decreased from 92 and 86% among fit individuals to 84 and 78% among those with severe frailty. Patient-reported success following hip and knee arthroplasty, respectively, decreased from 97 and 93% among fit individuals to 90 and 83% among those with severe frailty. CONCLUSION: frailty adversely impacts on patient-reported outcomes following hip and knee arthroplasty. However, even among those with severe frailty, the large majority achieved the MIC in OHS/OKS and reported a successful outcome.

Very large fluxes of methane measured above Bolivian seasonal wetlands.

Methane (CH4) mole fractions from the large semiseasonal Llanos de Moxos wetlands (∼70,000 km2) in northern Bolivia were measured by aircraft flights and ground sampling during early March 2019 (late wet season). Daily fluxes of CH4 determined from the measurements using box models and inverse modeling were between 168 (± 50) and 456 (± 145) mg CH4⋅m-2⋅d-1 for the areas overflown, very high compared with those of previous Amazon basin studies. If the seasonality of the CH4 emissions is comparable to other parts of the Amazon Basin, the region could contribute as much as 8% of annual Amazonian CH4 emissions.

The impact of frailty on short-term mortality following primary total hip and knee arthroplasty due to osteoarthritis.

BACKGROUND: We determined the association between frailty and short-term mortality following total hip and knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA) for osteoarthritis and also the impact of THA/TKA on short-term mortality compared with a control population. METHODS: Frailty was assessed using a frailty index (categorised: fit, mild, moderate, severe frailty). The association between frailty and short-term mortality following THA/TKA was assessed using Cox regression. Mortality following THA/TKA was also compared with a control population with osteoarthritis but no previous THA/TKA, matched on year of birth, sex and quintile of index of multiple deprivation. RESULTS: A total of 103,563 cases who had a THA, 125,367 who had a TKA and matched controls contributed. Among those who had surgery, mortality increased with increasing frailty; adjusted hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) at 30 days in severely frail versus fit: following THA, 2.85 (1.84, 4.39) and following TKA, 2.14 (1.29, 3.53). The predicted probability of 30-day mortality following THA/TKA varied by age, sex and frailty: following THA, from 0.05% among fit women aged 60-64 years to 6.55% among men with severe frailty aged ≥90 years. All-cause 30-day mortality was increased in fit cases following THA and TKA, respectively, versus fit controls (adjusted HR (95% CI), 1.60 (1.15, 2.21) and 2.98 (1.81, 4.89)), though not among cases with mild, moderate or severe frailty versus controls in the same frailty category. CONCLUSION: Short-term mortality increased with increasing frailty following THA/TKA. Comparison of mortality among cases and controls may be affected by a 'healthy surgery' selection effect.