Association between climate factors and diarrhoea in a Mekong Delta area.

The Mekong Delta is vulnerable to changes in climate and hydrological events which alter environmental conditions, resulting in increased risk of waterborne diseases. Research exploring the association between climate factors and diarrhoea, the most frequent waterborne disease in Mekong Delta region, is sparse. This study evaluated the climate-diarrhoea association in Can Tho city, a typical Mekong Delta area in Vietnam. Climate data (temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall) were obtained from the Southern Regional Hydro-Meteorological Centre, and weekly counts of diarrhoea visits were obtained from Can Tho Preventive Medicine Centre from 2004 to 2011. Analysis of climate and health variables was carried out using spline function to adjust for seasonal and long-term trends of variables. A distributed lag model was used to investigate possible delayed effects of climate variables on diarrhoea (considering 0-4 week lag periods), then the multivariate Poisson regression was used to examine any potential association between climate factors and diarrhoea. The results indicated that the diarrhoea incidence peaked within the period August-October annually. Significant positive associations were found between increased diarrhoea and high temperature at 4 weeks prior to the date of hospital visits (IRR = 1.07; 95 % CI = 1.04-1.08), high relative humidity (IRR = 1.13; 95 % CI = 1.12-1.15) and high (>90th percentile) cumulative rainfall (IRR = 1.05; 95 % CI = 1.05-1.08). The association between climate factors and diarrhoea was stronger in rural than urban areas. These findings in the context of the projected changes of climate conditions suggest that climate change will have important implications for residential health in Mekong Delta region.

Identification of the prediction model for dengue incidence in Can Tho city, a Mekong Delta area in Vietnam.

The Mekong Delta is highly vulnerable to climate change and a dengue endemic area in Vietnam. This study aims to examine the association between climate factors and dengue incidence and to identify the best climate prediction model for dengue incidence in Can Tho city, the Mekong Delta area in Vietnam. We used three different regression models comprising: standard multiple regression model (SMR), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA), and Poisson distributed lag model (PDLM) to examine the association between climate factors and dengue incidence over the period 2003-2010. We validated the models by forecasting dengue cases for the period of January-December, 2011 using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Receiver operating characteristics curves were used to analyze the sensitivity of the forecast of a dengue outbreak. The results indicate that temperature and relative humidity are significantly associated with changes in dengue incidence consistently across the model methods used, but not cumulative rainfall. The Poisson distributed lag model (PDLM) performs the best prediction of dengue incidence for a 6, 9, and 12-month period and diagnosis of an outbreak however the SARIMA model performs a better prediction of dengue incidence for a 3-month period. The simple or standard multiple regression performed highly imprecise prediction of dengue incidence. We recommend a follow-up study to validate the model on a larger scale in the Mekong Delta region and to analyze the possibility of incorporating a climate-based dengue early warning method into the national dengue surveillance system.

Vectors and malaria transmission in deforested, rural communities in north-central Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is still prevalent in rural communities of central Vietnam even though, due to deforestation, the primary vector Anopheles dirus is uncommon. In these situations little is known about the secondary vectors which are responsible for maintaining transmission. Basic information on the identification of the species in these rural communities is required so that transmission parameters, such as ecology, behaviour and vectorial status can be assigned to the appropriate species. METHODS: In two rural villages--Khe Ngang and Hang Chuon--in Truong Xuan Commune, Quang Binh Province, north central Vietnam, a series of longitudinal entomological surveys were conducted during the wet and dry seasons from 2003-2007. In these surveys anopheline mosquitoes were collected in human landing catches, paired human and animal bait collections, and from larval surveys. Specimens belonging to species complexes were identified by PCR and sequence analysis, incrimination of vectors was by detection of circumsporozoite protein using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS: Over 80% of the anopheline fauna was made up of Anopheles sinensis, Anopheles aconitus, Anopheles harrisoni, Anopheles maculatus, Anopheles sawadwongporni, and Anopheles philippinensis. PCR and sequence analysis resolved identification issues in the Funestus Group, Maculatus Group, Hyrcanus Group and Dirus Complex. Most species were zoophilic and while all species could be collected biting humans significantly higher densities were attracted to cattle and buffalo. Anopheles dirus was the most anthropophilic species but was uncommon making up only 1.24% of all anophelines collected. Anopheles sinensis, An. aconitus, An. harrisoni, An. maculatus, An. sawadwongporni, Anopheles peditaeniatus and An. philippinensis were all found positive for circumsporozoite protein. Heterogeneity in oviposition site preference between species enabled vector densities to be high in both the wet and dry seasons allowing for year round transmission. CONCLUSIONS: In rural communities in north central Vietnam, malaria transmission was maintained by a number of anopheline species which though collected feeding on humans were predominantly zoophilic, this behaviour allows for low level but persistent malaria transmission. The important animal baits--cattle and buffalo--were kept in the village and barrier spraying around these animals may be more effective at reducing vector densities and longevity than the currently used indoor residual spraying.