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Importance: There is a recognized unmet need for clinical trials to provide evidence-informed care for infants, children and adolescents. This Special Communication outlines the capacity of 3 distinct trial design strategies, sequential, parallel, and a unified adult-pediatric bayesian adaptive design, to incorporate children into clinical trials and transform this current state of evidence inequity. A unified adult-pediatric whole-of-life clinical trial is demonstrated through the Staphylococcus aureus Network Adaptive Platform (SNAP) trial. Observations: Bayesian methods provide a framework for synthesizing data in the form of a probability model that can be used in the design and analysis of a clinical trial. Three trial design strategies are compared: (1) a sequential adult-pediatric bayesian approach that involves a separate, deferred pediatric trial that incorporates existing adult trial data into the analysis model to potentially reduce the pediatric trial sample size; (2) a parallel adult-pediatric bayesian trial whereby separate pediatric enrollment occurs in a parallel trial, running alongside an adult randomized clinical trial; and (3) a unified adult-pediatric bayesian adaptive design that supports the enrollment of both children and adults simultaneously in a whole-of-life bayesian adaptive randomized clinical trial. The SNAP trial whole-of-life design uses a bayesian hierarchical model that allows information sharing (also known as borrowing) between trial age groups by linking intervention effects of children and adults, thereby improving inference in both groups. Conclusion and Relevance: Bayesian hierarchical models may provide more precision for estimates of safety and efficacy of treatments in trials with heterogenous populations compared to traditional methods of analysis. They facilitate the inclusion of children in clinical trials and a shift from children deemed therapeutic orphans to the vision of no child left behind in clinical trials to ensure evidence for clinical practice exists across the life course. The SNAP trial provides an example of a bayesian adaptive whole-of-life inclusion design that enhances trial population inclusivity and diversity overall, as well as generalizability and translation of findings into clinical practice.
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BACKGROUND: Immunocompromised hosts (ICH) experience more breakthrough infections and worse clinical outcomes following infection with COVID-19 than immunocompetent people. Prophylactic monoclonal antibody therapies can be challenging to access, and escape variants emerge rapidly. Immunity conferred through vaccination remains a central prevention strategy for COVID-19. COVID-19 vaccines do not elicit optimal immunity in ICH but boosting, through additional doses of vaccine improves humoral and cellular immune responses. This trial aims to assess the immunogenicity and safety of different COVID-19 vaccine booster strategies against SARS-CoV-2 for ICH in Australia. METHODS: Bringing optimised COVID-19 vaccine schedules to immunocompromised populations (BOOST-IC) is an adaptive randomised trial of one or two additional doses of COVID-19 vaccines 3 months apart in people living with HIV, solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients, or those who have haematological malignancies (chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, non-Hodgkin lymphoma or multiple myeloma). Key eligibility criteria include having received 3 to 7 doses of Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA)-approved COVID-19 vaccines at least 3 months earlier, and having not received SARS-CoV-2-specific monoclonal antibodies in the 3 months prior to receiving the study vaccine. The primary outcome is the geometric mean concentration of anti-spike SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G (IgG) 28 days after the final dose of the study vaccine. Key secondary outcomes include anti-spike SARS-CoV-2 IgG titres and the proportion of people seroconverting 6 and 12 months after study vaccines, local and systemic reactions in the 7 days after vaccination, adverse events of special interest, COVID-19 infection, mortality and quality of life. DISCUSSION: This study will enhance the understanding of COVID-19 vaccine responses in ICH, and enable the development of safe, and optimised vaccine schedules in people with HIV, SOT, or haematological malignancy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05556720. Registered on 23rd August 2022.
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Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Esquemas de Inmunización , Huésped Inmunocomprometido , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , COVID-19/prevención & control , COVID-19/inmunología , Vacunas contra la COVID-19/inmunología , Vacunas contra la COVID-19/administración & dosificación , Vacunas contra la COVID-19/efectos adversos , SARS-CoV-2/inmunología , Inmunogenicidad Vacunal , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Inmunización Secundaria , Australia , Adulto , Factores de TiempoRESUMEN
The Platform trial In COVID-19 priming and BOOsting (PICOBOO) is a multi-site, adaptive platform trial designed to generate evidence of the immunogenicity, reactogenicity, and cross-protection of different booster vaccination strategies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its variants, specific for the Australian context. The PICOBOO trial randomises participants to receive one of three COVID-19 booster vaccine brands (Pfizer, Moderna, Novavax) available for use in Australia, where the vaccine brand subtypes vary over time according to the national vaccine roll out strategy, and employs a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach to efficiently borrow information across consecutive booster doses, age groups and vaccine brand subtypes. Here, we briefly describe the PICOBOO trial structure and report the statistical considerations for the estimands, statistical models and decision making for trial adaptations. This paper should be read in conjunction with the PICOBOO Core Protocol and PICOBOO Sub-Study Protocol 1: Booster Vaccination. PICOBOO was registered on 10 February 2022 with the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12622000238774.
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Teorema de Bayes , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Inmunización Secundaria , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , COVID-19/prevención & control , COVID-19/inmunología , Vacunas contra la COVID-19/inmunología , Vacunas contra la COVID-19/administración & dosificación , Australia , SARS-CoV-2/inmunología , Inmunogenicidad Vacunal , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Estudios Multicéntricos como Asunto , Modelos EstadísticosRESUMEN
Charter school policy represents two simultaneous forms of accountability, in which schools are accountable to both parents and authorizers. This study of a K-8 charter renewal decision interrogates these accountability relationships and the role of race and power in privileging the interests of particular stakeholders over others. Using counternarrative methodology and qualitative interviews and observations, we draw on critical race theory and new managerialism to make sense of the competing accounts surrounding a non-renewal process. We find four areas of tension, in which district officials subscribe to new managerialist authorizing styles that leave little room for participation from the Black and low-income school community. We conclude with recommendations for how districts can partner with communities to work toward frameworks of accountability that value the goals of multiple stakeholder groups.
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BACKGROUND: In many countries, infant vaccination with acellular pertussis (aP) vaccines has replaced use of more reactogenic whole-cell pertussis (wP) vaccines. Based on immunological and epidemiological evidence, we hypothesised that substituting the first aP dose in the routine vaccination schedule with wP vaccine might protect against IgE-mediated food allergy. We aimed to compare reactogenicity, immunogenicity, and IgE-mediated responses of a mixed wP/aP primary schedule versus the standard aP-only schedule. METHODS AND FINDINGS: OPTIMUM is a Bayesian, 2-stage, double-blind, randomised trial. In stage one, infants were assigned (1:1) to either a first dose of a pentavalent wP combination vaccine (DTwP-Hib-HepB, Pentabio PT Bio Farma, Indonesia) or a hexavalent aP vaccine (DTaP-Hib-HepB-IPV, Infanrix hexa, GlaxoSmithKline, Australia) at approximately 6 weeks old. Subsequently, all infants received the hexavalent aP vaccine at 4 and 6 months old as well as an aP vaccine at 18 months old (DTaP-IPV, Infanrix-IPV, GlaxoSmithKline, Australia). Stage two is ongoing and follows the above randomisation strategy and vaccination schedule. Ahead of ascertainment of the primary clinical outcome of allergist-confirmed IgE-mediated food allergy by 12 months old, here we present the results of secondary immunogenicity, reactogenicity, tetanus toxoid IgE-mediated immune responses, and parental acceptability endpoints. Serum IgG responses to diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis antigens were measured using a multiplex fluorescent bead-based immunoassay; total and specific IgE were measured in plasma by means of the ImmunoCAP assay (Thermo Fisher Scientific). The immunogenicity of the mixed schedule was defined as being noninferior to that of the aP-only schedule using a noninferiority margin of 2/3 on the ratio of the geometric mean concentrations (GMR) of pertussis toxin (PT)-IgG 1 month after the 6-month aP. Solicited adverse reactions were summarised by study arm and included all children who received the first dose of either wP or aP. Parental acceptance was assessed using a 5-point Likert scale. The primary analyses were based on intention-to-treat (ITT); secondary per-protocol (PP) analyses were also performed. The trial is registered with ANZCTR (ACTRN12617000065392p). Between March 7, 2018 and January 13, 2020, 150 infants were randomised (75 per arm). PT-IgG responses of the mixed schedule were noninferior to the aP-only schedule at approximately 1 month after the 6-month aP dose [GMR = 0·98, 95% credible interval (0·77 to 1·26); probability (GMR > 2/3) > 0·99; ITT analysis]. At 7 months old, the posterior median probability of quantitation for tetanus toxoid IgE was 0·22 (95% credible interval 0·12 to 0·34) in both the mixed schedule group and in the aP-only group. Despite exclusions, the results were consistent in the PP analysis. At 6 weeks old, irritability was the most common systemic solicited reaction reported in wP (65 [88%] of 74) versus aP (59 [82%] of 72) vaccinees. At the same age, severe systemic reactions were reported among 14 (19%) of 74 infants after wP and 8 (11%) of 72 infants after aP. There were 7 SAEs among 5 participants within the first 6 months of follow-up; on blinded assessment, none were deemed to be related to the study vaccines. Parental acceptance of mixed and aP-only schedules was high (71 [97%] of 73 versus 69 [96%] of 72 would agree to have the same schedule again). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the aP-only schedule, the mixed schedule evoked noninferior PT-IgG responses, was associated with more severe reactions, but was well accepted by parents. Tetanus toxoid IgE responses did not differ across the study groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trial registered at the Australian and New Zealand Clinical 207 Trial Registry (ACTRN12617000065392p).
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Vacuna contra Difteria, Tétanos y Tos Ferina , Esquemas de Inmunización , Inmunoglobulina E , Humanos , Lactante , Método Doble Ciego , Inmunoglobulina E/inmunología , Inmunoglobulina E/sangre , Femenino , Masculino , Vacuna contra Difteria, Tétanos y Tos Ferina/inmunología , Vacuna contra Difteria, Tétanos y Tos Ferina/administración & dosificación , Vacuna contra Difteria, Tétanos y Tos Ferina/efectos adversos , Australia , Vacunas Combinadas/inmunología , Vacunas Combinadas/efectos adversos , Vacunas Combinadas/administración & dosificación , Vacuna contra la Tos Ferina/inmunología , Vacuna contra la Tos Ferina/efectos adversos , Vacuna contra la Tos Ferina/administración & dosificación , Hipersensibilidad a los Alimentos/inmunología , Hipersensibilidad a los Alimentos/prevención & control , Vacuna Antipolio de Virus Inactivados/inmunología , Vacuna Antipolio de Virus Inactivados/efectos adversos , Vacuna Antipolio de Virus Inactivados/administración & dosificación , Vacunas contra Haemophilus/inmunología , Vacunas contra Haemophilus/efectos adversos , Vacunas contra Haemophilus/administración & dosificación , Tos Ferina/prevención & control , Tos Ferina/inmunología , Inmunogenicidad Vacunal , Anticuerpos Antibacterianos/sangre , Anticuerpos Antibacterianos/inmunologíaRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: The use of adjunctive antibiotics directed against exotoxin production in Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB) is widespread, and is recommended in many guidelines, but there is limited evidence underpinning this. Existing guidelines are based on the theoretical premise of toxin suppression, as many strains of S. aureus produce toxins such as leucocidins (e.g., Panton-Valentine Leucocidin (PVL), toxic shock syndrome toxin 1 (TSST-1), exfoliative toxins, and various enterotoxins). Many clinicians therefore believe that limiting exotoxin production release by S. aureus could reduce its virulence and improve clinical outcomes. Clindamycin, a protein synthesis inhibitor antibiotic, is commonly used for this purpose. We report the domain-specific protocol, embedded in a large adaptive, platform trial, seeking to definitively answer this question. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Staphylococcus aureus Network Adaptive Platform (SNAP) trial is a pragmatic, randomized, multi-center adaptive platform trial that aims to compare different SAB therapies, simultaneously, for 90-day mortality. The adjunctive treatment domain aims to test the effectiveness of adjunctive antibiotics, initially comparing clindamycin to no adjunctive antibiotic, but future adaptations may include other agents. Individuals will be randomized to receive either five days of adjunctive clindamycin (or lincomycin) or no adjunctive antibiotic therapy alongside standard of care antibiotics. Most participants with SAB (within 72hr of index blood culture and not contraindicated) will be eligible to participate in this domain. Prespecified analyses are defined in the statistical appendix to the core protocol and domain-specific secondary analyses will be adjusted for resistance to clindamycin, disease phenotype (complicated or uncomplicated SAB) and PVL-positive isolate.
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BACKGROUND: Clinical trials and real world studies demonstrated benefit of mepolizumab treatment in severe asthma but data on its effectiveness beyond 2 years remain limited. Herein, we provide mepolizumab treatment evaluation up to 4 years. METHODS: we studied all patients initiated on mepolizumab in our center from June 2017 to August 2018. Clinical outcomes data were retrieved from the local dendrite systems registry. Comparison analyses and logistic regression were conducted to explore longevity and predictors of response to mepolizumab treatment. RESULTS: a total of 66 patients initiated on mepolizumab with a median follow-up of 45.8 (42.4,48.1) months were included in the study [mean age 50.3 years (range 18-79), females 50 (73%) ]. At 20.7 months of treatment, 42 patients (63.6%) had positive response, 13 (19.7%) negative response, and 11 (16.7%) discontinued due to other factors. At 45.8 months, 35 (53%) patients were still on mepolizumab, 21 (31.8%) switched to a different biologic, and 10 (15.2%) discontinued biologics. Two deaths were recorded during the study period.The median blood eosinophil was reduced from 0.43x109/L (0.27, 0.75) to 0.04 (0.0, 0.1) (p < 0.00001)]. The median annual exacerbations were reduced from 6.0 (4,8) to 1.0 (0.0,3.0) (p < 0.00001), and mOCS use was reduced from59% to 29%, p = 0.001. The mean asthma control questionnaire-6 (ACQ6) improved from 3.1 ± 1.7 to 2.1 ± 1.3 (p < 0.00001). CONCLUSIONS: mepolizumab clinical benefit was sustained over 4 years. However, approximately half of the cohort discontinued the treatment prompting the need for further research into the treatment response longevity.
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The Staphylococcus aureus Network Adaptive Platform (SNAP) trial is a multifactorial Bayesian adaptive platform trial that aims to improve the way that S. aureus bloodstream infection, a globally common and severe infectious disease, is treated. In a world first, the SNAP trial will simultaneously investigate the effects of multiple intervention modalities within multiple groups of participants with different forms of S. aureus bloodstream infection. Here, we formalise the trial structure, modelling approach, and decision rules that will be used for the SNAP trial. By summarising the statistical principles governing the design, our hope is that the SNAP trial will serve as an adaptable template that can be used to improve comparative effectiveness research efficiency in other disease areas.Trial registration NCT05137119 . Registered on 30 November 2021.
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Sepsis , Infecciones Estafilocócicas , Adulto , Niño , Humanos , Teorema de Bayes , Infecciones Estafilocócicas/diagnóstico , Staphylococcus aureusRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection (bacteraemia) is traditionally treated with at least two weeks of IV antibiotics in adults, 3-7 days in children, and often longer for those with complicated disease. The current practice of treating S. aureus bacteraemia (SAB) with prolonged IV antibiotics (rather than oral antibiotics) is based on historical observational research and expert opinion. Prolonged IV antibiotic therapy has significant disadvantages for patients and healthcare systems, and there is growing interest in whether a switch to oral antibiotics following an initial period of IV therapy is a safe alternative for clinically stable patients. PROTOCOL: The early oral switch (EOS) domain of the S. aureus Network Adaptive Platform (SNAP) trial will assess early switch to oral antibiotics compared with continued IV treatment in clinically stable patients with SAB. The primary endpoint is 90-day all-cause mortality. Hospitalised SAB patients are assessed at platform day 7 +/- 2 (uncomplicated SAB) and day 14 +/-2 (complicated SAB) to determine their eligibility for randomisation to EOS (intervention) or continued IV treatment (current standard of care). DISCUSSION: Recruitment is occurring to the EOS domain of the SNAP trial. As of August 2023, 21% of all SNAP participants had been randomised to the EOS domain, a total of 264 participants across 77 centres, with an aim to recruit at least 1000 participants. We describe challenges and facilitators to enrolment in this domain to aid those planning similar trials.
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BACKGROUND: House dust mite (HDM) is the most common sensitising allergen in asthma. Ethnic minority groups (EMGs) in the UK are more likely to live in deprived conditionings with a greater exposure to HDM and other aero-allergens. AIM: To compare the ethnicity-based patterns of sensitisation to aero-allergens and the impact of ethnicity on clinical outcomes in patients with difficult-to-treat asthma (DTA). METHODS: Data of patients with DTA were extracted from the registry of the Birmingham Regional Severe Asthma Service (BRSAS), which have a catchment population of 7.3million from Central England. Patients from White and EMG backgrounds were compared in terms of the prevalence of atopy, total serum immunoglobulin E (IgE), specific serum IgE (ssIgE) and asthma related clinical outcomes. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to explore ethnicity-based risk factors for HDM sensitisation. RESULTS: A total of 1272 patients [White 1016 (79.9%), EMG 256 (20.1%) EMG] with a median age of 51 years (range 16-97) were included in the analysis. Patients from EMG were more likely (64%) to reside in the worst scale of index of multiple deprivation (IMD) than the White patients (25.5%), p < 0.0001. Positive HDM sensitisation was more prevalent in the EMG than in the White group [142/216 (66%) versus 375/842 (45%), p < 0.0001]. The median HDM ssIgE level was higher in the EMG than in the White group [3.0 KUA/L (IQR 0.06, 11.5) versus 0.1 (0.01, 3.0), p < 0.000001]. The odds ratio for positive sensitisation to HDM conveyed by the EMG status was 2.61 (95%CI, 1.8-3.8), p < 0.0001. Compared to the White group, the EMG had higher median total serum IgE [326 KU/L (115, 971) versus 114 (29.8, 434.8), p < 0.000001], higher blood eosinophil count (0.36 × 109 (0.18, 0.62) versus 0.23 (0.1,0.47), p < 0.000001), were marginally more atopic (79.2% vs. 75.6%, p = 0.098) and were less likely to being on maintenance oral corticosteroids (22% vs. 39.7%, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: In this DTA cohort, positive HDM sensitisation was greater amongst the EMG than the White patients. The EMG status was a significant risk factor for HDM sensitisation.
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Objectives: The youth unemployment rate in Australia is more than double the national average. Policies and programs to address barriers and improve youth engagement in education and employment are essential to achieve many of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The aim of this mixed-methods study was to evaluate the OzHarvest Nourish Program, a free, hospitality-focused pathway to support employment and engagement for young people aged 16-25 years. Study design: Mixed-methods study. Methods: An online survey, workshop and semi-structured interviews with staff, volunteers, participants, and broader stakeholders were conducted using a qualitative, exploratory approach. Ethics approval was granted by the Griffith University Human Research Ethics Committee (#2022/492). Results: Five key themes were identified from interview data and a logic model was developed. Participants described significant benefits of participation, including improved food security, self-efficacy, and communication skills, reduced social isolation, and greater hope for the future. Conclusions: The Nourish Program is a transformative service that is improving wellbeing outcomes for program participants. Additional resourcing, including adequate funding, may be required to maximise program impact and support sustainability.
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OBJECTIVES: Despite evidence supporting earlier discharge of well-appearing febrile infants at low risk of serious bacterial infection (SBI), admissions for ≥48 hours remain common. Prospective safety monitoring may support broader guideline implementation. METHODS: A sequential Bayesian safety monitoring framework was used to evaluate a new hospital guideline recommending early discharge of low-risk infants. Hospital readmissions within 7 days of discharge were regularly assessed against safety thresholds, derived from historic rates and expert opinion, and specified a priori (8 per 100 infants). Infants aged under 3 months admitted to 2 Western Australian metropolitan hospitals for management of fever without source were enrolled (August 2019-December 2021), to a prespecified maximum 500 enrolments. RESULTS: Readmission rates remained below the prespecified threshold at all scheduled analyses. Median corrected age was 34 days, and 14% met low-risk criteria (n = 71). SBI was diagnosed in 159 infants (32%), including urinary tract infection (n = 140) and bacteraemia (n = 18). Discharge occurred before 48 hours for 192 infants (38%), including 52% deemed low-risk. At study completion, 1 of 37 low-risk infants discharged before 48 hours had been readmitted (3%), for issues unrelated to SBI diagnosis. In total, 20 readmissions were identified (4 per 100 infants; 95% credible interval 3, 6), with >0.99 posterior probability of being below the prespecified noninferiority threshold, indicating acceptable safety. CONCLUSIONS: A Bayesian monitoring approach supported safe early discharge for many infants, without increased risk of readmission. This framework may be used to embed safety evaluations within future guideline implementation programs to further reduce low-value care.
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Fiebre , Hospitalización , Humanos , Lactante , Australia , Teorema de Bayes , Estudios Prospectivos , Hospitales UrbanosRESUMEN
Community involvement engages, empowers, and mobilises people to achieve their shared goals by addressing structural inequalities in the social and built environment. Through this review, we summarised published information on models, frameworks, and/or processes of community organising used in the context of health initiatives or interventions and documented the outcomes following their use. A systematic scoping review was conducted in three databases with no restrictions on the date of publication, country, or written language. Out of 5044 studies, 38 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the review. The targeted health outcomes explored by the studies were diverse and included sub-domains such as the promotion of a healthy lifestyle, sexual and reproductive health, access to healthcare and equity, and substance abuse and chronic disease management. The outcomes of most initiatives or interventions were promising, with positive changes reported for the target populations. A wide variation was noted in the models, frameworks, or processes of community organising utilised in these studies. We concluded that variation implies that no single model, framework, or process seems to have predominance over others in implementing community organising as a vehicle of positive social change within the health domain. The review also highlighted the need for a more standardised approach to the implementation and evaluation of these initiatives. We recommend that it is essential to foster public and non-governmental sector partnerships to promote community-driven health promotion efforts for a more sustainable approach to these initiatives.
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Participación de la Comunidad , Atención a la Salud , Humanos , Estilo de Vida SaludableRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Pneumonia remains a leading cause of hospitalization and death among young children worldwide, and the diagnostic challenge of differentiating bacterial from non-bacterial pneumonia is the main driver of antibiotic use for treating pneumonia in children. Causal Bayesian networks (BNs) serve as powerful tools for this problem as they provide clear maps of probabilistic relationships between variables and produce results in an explainable way by incorporating both domain expert knowledge and numerical data. METHODS: We used domain expert knowledge and data in combination and iteratively, to construct, parameterise and validate a causal BN to predict causative pathogens for childhood pneumonia. Expert knowledge elicitation occurred through a series of group workshops, surveys and one-on-one meetings involving 6-8 experts from diverse domain areas. The model performance was evaluated based on both quantitative metrics and qualitative expert validation. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to investigate how the target output is influenced by varying key assumptions of a particularly high degree of uncertainty around data or domain expert knowledge. RESULTS: Designed to apply to a cohort of children with X-ray confirmed pneumonia who presented to a tertiary paediatric hospital in Australia, the resulting BN offers explainable and quantitative predictions on a range of variables of interest, including the diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia, detection of respiratory pathogens in the nasopharynx, and the clinical phenotype of a pneumonia episode. Satisfactory numeric performance has been achieved including an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.8 in predicting clinically-confirmed bacterial pneumonia with sensitivity 88% and specificity 66% given certain input scenarios (i.e., information that is available and entered into the model) and trade-off preferences (i.e., relative weightings of the consequences of false positive versus false negative predictions). We specifically highlight that a desirable model output threshold for practical use is very dependent upon different input scenarios and trade-off preferences. Three commonly encountered scenarios were presented to demonstrate the potential usefulness of the BN outputs in various clinical pictures. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first causal model developed to help determine the causative pathogen for paediatric pneumonia. We have shown how the method works and how it would help decision making on the use of antibiotics, providing insight into how computational model predictions may be translated to actionable decisions in practice. We discussed key next steps including external validation, adaptation and implementation. Our model framework and the methodological approach can be adapted beyond our context to broad respiratory infections and geographical and healthcare settings.
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Antibacterianos , Neumonía , Humanos , Teorema de Bayes , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , AustraliaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a rare, inherited, life-limiting condition predominantly affecting the lungs, for which there is no cure. The disease is characterized by recurrent pulmonary exacerbations (PEx), which are thought to drive progressive lung damage. Management of these episodes is complex and generally involves multiple interventions targeting different aspects of disease. The emergence of innovative trials and use of Bayesian statistical methods has created renewed opportunities for studying heterogeneous populations in rare diseases. Here, we present the protocol for the BEAT CF PEx cohort, a prospective, multi-site, perpetual, platform enrolling adults and children with CF. The BEAT CF PEx cohort will be used to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of interventions for the treatment of PEx requiring intensive therapy (PERITs), with a primary focus on short-term improvements in lung function. This will be achieved through the conduct of cohort-nested studies, including adaptive clinical trials, within the BEAT CF PEx cohort. This protocol will outline key features of the BEAT CF PEx cohort, including the design, implementation, data collection and management, governance and analysis, and dissemination of results. METHODS: This platform will be conducted across multiple sites, commencing with CF treatment centers in Australia. People of all ages with a clinical diagnosis of CF will be eligible to participate, except those who have previously received a lung transplant. Data including demographic and clinical information, treatment details, and outcomes (including safety, microbiology, and patient-reported outcome measures including quality of life scores) will be systematically collected and securely stored via a digital centralized trial management system (CTMS). The primary endpoint is the absolute change in the percentage predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (ppFEV1) from the commencement of intensive therapy to 7 to 10 days afterwards. DISCUSSION: The BEAT CF PEx cohort will report clinical, treatment, and outcome data for PEx among people with CF and is intended to serve as a core (master) protocol for future nested, interventional trials evaluating treatment(s) for these episodes. The protocols for nested sub-studies are beyond the scope of this document and will be reported separately. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ANZCTR BEAT CF Platform - ACTRN12621000638831. Registration date: Sept. 26, 2022.
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Fibrosis Quística , Adulto , Niño , Humanos , Antibacterianos/uso terapéutico , Teorema de Bayes , Fibrosis Quística/diagnóstico , Fibrosis Quística/terapia , Volumen Espiratorio Forzado , Pulmón , Estudios Prospectivos , Calidad de VidaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: While most Australian children are vaccinated, delays in vaccination can put them at risk from preventable infections. Widespread mobile phone ownership in Australia could allow automated short message service (SMS) reminders to be used as a low-cost strategy to effectively 'nudge' parents towards vaccinating their children on time. METHODS: AuTOMATIC is an adaptive randomised trial which aims to both evaluate and optimise the use of SMS reminders for improving the timely vaccination of children at primary care clinics across Australia. The trial will utilise high levels of digital automation to effect, including eligibility assessment, randomisation, delivery of intervention, data extraction and analysis, thereby allowing healthcare-embedded trial delivery. Up to 10,000 parents attending participating primary care clinics will be randomised to one of 12 different active SMS vaccine reminder content and timing arms or usual practice only (no SMS reminder). The primary outcome is vaccine receipt within 28 days of the scheduled date for the index vaccine (the first scheduled vaccine after randomisation). Secondary analyses will assess receipt and timeliness for all vaccine occasions in all children. Regular scheduled analyses will be performed using Bayesian inference and pre-specified trial decision rules, enabling response adaptive randomisation, suspension of any poorly performing arms and early stopping if a single best message is identified. DISCUSSION: This study will aim to optimise SMS reminders for childhood vaccination in primary care clinics, directly comparing alternative message framing and message timing. We anticipate that the trial will be an exemplar in using Bayesian adaptive methodology to assess a readily implementable strategy in a wide population, capable of delivery due to the levels of digital automation. Methods and findings from this study will help to inform strategies for implementing reminders and embedding analytics in primary health care settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ANZCTR: ACTRN12618000789268 .
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Teléfono Celular , Envío de Mensajes de Texto , Niño , Humanos , Cobertura de Vacunación , Teorema de Bayes , Sistemas Recordatorios , Australia , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como AsuntoRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Video otoscopy plays an important role in improving access to ear health services. This study investigated the clinician-rated quality of video otoscopy recordings and still images, and compared their suitability for asynchronous diagnosis of middle-ear disease. METHODS: Two hundred and eighty video otoscopy image-recording pairs were collected from 150 children (aged six months to 15 years) by an ear, nose, and throat (ENT) specialist, audiologists, and trained research assistants, and independently rated by an audiologist and ENT surgeon. On a five-point scale, clinicians rated the cerumen amount, field of view, quality, focus, light, and gave an overall rating, and asked whether they could make an accurate diagnosis for both still images and recordings. RESULTS: More video otoscopy recordings were rated as 'good' or 'excellent' compared to still images across all domains. The mean difference between the two otoscopic procedures ratings was significant across almost all domains (p < 0.05), except 'cerumen amount'. The suitability to make a diagnosis significantly improved when using recordings (p<0.05). Younger participant age was found to have a significant, negative impact on the ratings across all domains (p < 0.03). The role of the tester conducting video otoscopy did not have a significant impact on the ratings. DISCUSSION: Video otoscopy recordings were found to provide clearer views of the tympanic membrane and increase the ability to make diagnoses, compared to still images, for both audiologists and ENT surgeons. Research assistants with limited practice were able to obtain video otoscopy images and recordings that were comparable to the ones obtained by clinicians.
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Enfermedades del Oído , Membrana Timpánica , Niño , Humanos , Otoscopía/métodos , Enfermedades del Oído/diagnóstico , Grabación en Video , EspecializaciónRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Nafamostat mesylate is a potent in vitro antiviral agent that inhibits the host transmembrane protease serine 2 enzyme used by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 for cell entry. METHODS: This open-label, pragmatic, randomized clinical trial in Australia, New Zealand, and Nepal included noncritically ill hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Participants were randomly assigned to usual care or usual care plus nafamostat. The primary end point was death (any cause) or receipt of new invasive or noninvasive ventilation or vasopressor support within 28 days after randomization. Analysis was with a Bayesian logistic model in which an adjusted odds ratio <1.0 indicates improved outcomes with nafamostat. Enrollment was closed due to falling numbers of eligible patients. RESULTS: We screened 647 patients in 21 hospitals (15 in Australia, 4 in New Zealand, and 2 in Nepal) and enrolled 160 participants from May 2021 to August 2022. In the intention-to-treat population, the primary end point occurred in 8 (11%) of 73 patients with usual care and 4 (5%) of 82 with nafamostat. The median adjusted odds ratio for the primary end point for nafamostat was 0.40 (95% credible interval, 0.12 to 1.34) with a posterior probability of effectiveness (adjusted odds ratio <1.0) of 93%. For usual care compared with nafamostat, hyperkalemia occurred in 1 (1%) of 67 and 7 (9%) of 78 participants, respectively, and clinically relevant bleeding occurred in 1 (1%) of 73 and 7 (8%) of 82 participants. CONCLUSIONS: Among hospitalized patients with Covid-19, there was a 93% posterior probability that nafamostat reduced the odds of death or organ support. Prespecified stopping criteria were not met, precluding definitive conclusions. Hyperkalemia and bleeding were more common with nafamostat. (Funded by ASCOT and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04483960.)